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brencarr
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Re: Graph

Post by brencarr »

Week 27 - what a difference a year makes, last season week 27 saw Leicester win 3-1 at the Etihad to continue their run towards the title, this week they lost at Swansea and are now 1 point above the bottom 3, and are the only team in the 4 English divisions without a league goal in 2017 :shock:

Chelsea drew at 'Boro and Spurs lost at Anfield which allowed Man City to jump up to 2nd spot with a win at Bournemouth, Chelsea still have a lead of 8 points. Sunderland - who won 4-0 at Palace last week, lost 4-0 at home to Southampton - who lost 3-1 at home to the Hammers last week .... it's hard to know who to trust nowadays.

This week the tracked positions all scored in the 40's again and, with the exception of the top dog, don't appear to have (thus far) made full use of the extra transfers. FA Cup week next week - expect rotation for the big teams but if you get a good 2nd-string striker coming in for a game against some minnows you could score big .... come on Sergio, sign off in style. (at the time of writing he'd been benched for 3 weeks in favour of the 2nd coming)

Leader up 43
100th up 46
10k up 45
100k up 41
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Re: Graph

Post by brencarr »

Week 28 - FA Cup 5th round .... Harry Kane scores a hat trick at Fulham and was the stand-out pick of the weekend TFF-wise. Leicester lose to 10-man Millwall and Burnley lose at home to Lincoln, who are 'rewarded' with a trip to Arsenal in the next round. Man City drew at Huddersfield which at least gives them a replay to make up for the fact that the Manchester derby is postponed next week due to the League Cup final (Southampton v Man United).

The overall leader still has a 50+ point lead but for the first time in 11 weeks the top score has dropped below the score at the same point last season - by just one point (although this season's 5th round came a week earlier which may even out over the next few weeks).

Low scores as expected due to the usual rotation and the fact that not every team played....
Leader up 23
100th up 28
10k up 26
100k up 21
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Re: Graph

Post by brencarr »

Week 29 - Man United win the League Cup against a very unlucky/impressive Southampton. This meant that the two of them along with Arsenal and Man City all had no TFF involvement this week. Those of us - and by 'us' I mean 'you' - who had Harry Kane may not have noticed the absence of those 4 teams as Harry blew more than the bloody doors off, scoring his second hat-trick in two weeks. .... Chelsea won again.

The Cloudy Rainy area has moved away from Leicester and the sun has come out again, in the form of a 3-1 against Liverpool, so long tinker-man - well played sir.

Leader up 58
100th up 50
10k up 46
100k up 35
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Re: Graph

Post by brencarr »

Week 30 - A full week this week before the FA Cup next week and there were lots of goals (36 in the 10 games); only 3 teams kept a clean sheet this week, congratulations if you have a team of Palace, Stoke and Man City defenders :shock:

Harry Kane bagged another brace and with Aguero, Costa and Mane scoring it wasn't a bad week points-wise. Chelsea continue their march towards the title, but letting in a last minute goal in a 2-1 win will have hit some teams hard; they now have a 10 point lead. At the bottom, 'Boro, Hull & Sunderland look in trouble.

The leader slowed down a little this week allowing everyone to close up a bit .... but he still has a 44 point lead so won't be too upset :)
Leader up 41
100th up 60
10k up 55
100k up 44
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Re: Graph

Post by brencarr »

Week 31 - FA Cup quarter final weekend and a hat-trick for a Spurs striker .... but it was Son and not Kane, as the latter hobbled off injured, a blow for those managers with few transfers left. There are now 10 'weeks' left plus the FA Cup final and with an International break just around the corner and 11 postponed fixtures to be re-arranged, transfers in hand now could be very valuable indeed.

It's some line-up we have for the semis .... Arsenal v Man City and Chelsea v Spurs. This run for the most popular TFF players has no doubt helped push the scores up this season, along with the extra transfers; the leading team is 83 points ahead of the same stage last season and the 100th placed team is 73 ahead. The top team now has a 30 point lead.

A high-scoring week this week compared to the 50 point/week guide and considering 5 (admittedly lower) teams had no game....
Leader up 74
100th up 68
10k up 55
100k up 46
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Re: Graph

Post by brencarr »

Week 32 - Cahill scores a late winner for Chelsea at Stoke and only Spurs are within 10 points of them now as their procession towards the title continues. Lukaku scores twice in stoppage time, Liverpool draw at Man City (which helps neither of them) and Man United leapfrog Arsenal into 5th place .... could this be the year the Gunners fail to make the top 4? There could be lots of changes on the way at the Emirates next season.

Leader up 55
100th up 44
10k up 42
100k up 36

There now follows an International break :(
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Re: Graph

Post by brencarr »

Week 33 - strange happenings this week with frontrunners having a bad time of things. Chelsea lost ...! ....at home ...! ....to Palace :shock: and the runaway leader in the overall league appears to have only increased his score by 12. The two things may be related of course and maybe transfers are scarce around the top 100? Spurs took advantage by winning at Burnley to close the gap to 7 points whilst Liverpool won the Merseyside derby and Man City drew at the Emirates - Arsenal are now 7 points behind 4th placed City (with Man United sandwiched in between).

Leader up 12
100th up 38
10k up 40
100k up 33
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Re: Graph

Post by murf »

Thought I had a poor to average week but I'm closer to the lead!!!!

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Re: Graph

Post by brencarr »

Week 34 - midweek fixtures and a big impact at both ends of the Premier League table. Hull beat 'Boro 4-2 to drag themselves out of the bottom 3 whilst Swansea were ahead until the 88th minute at home to Spurs before losing 3-1, and subsequently slipped back into the relegation places .... meanwhile, Liverpool conceded in the 87th minute at home to Bournemouth and dropped 2 vital points and Man United needed a last-minute penalty to salvage a draw at home to Everton. In the top-of-the-table clash Chelsea beat Man City to keep their lead over Spurs at 7 points.

Things appear to be going wrong at the top of the TFF table as the long-time leader has had his lead cut to just 14 points - the gap from 1st to 100th is now 100 points (it was 143 just two weeks ago!)

Leader up 26
100th up 43
10k up 43
100k up 37
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Re: Graph

Post by brencarr »

Week 35 - we have a new leader at the top of the TFF table as (I'm guessing) transfers begin to run out for the pacesetters, I can imagine Chelsea conceding at least one goal every game isn't helping - they haven't kept a clean sheet in the Premier League since January .... it hasn't stopped them running away with the league though. Arsenal's woes continue as they lose 3-0 at Palace, Lukaku scored twice as Everton beat Leicester and Harry Kane is back on the scene, although it was Son who kept up the good work, scoring twice in a 4-0 win. Wins for both Manchester clubs and Liverpool means there are 5 teams battling it out for the final 2 Champions League places (assuming Spurs don't mess things up).

An even spread of points for the weekend ....
Leader up 51 (but will have scored more than that as it's a new leader)
100th up 54
10k up 51
100k up 43
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Re: Graph

Post by GaiCor »

Very good! Thats cracking, like that! Exactly how many pts do u have and how many subs have you made?

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Re: Graph

Post by brencarr »

Week 36 - lots of intrigue at the top of both leagues again this week (the Premier League and TFF) .... Man United beat Chelsea to give Spurs more hope as the lead is now cut to 4 points with 6 games to play. Spurs won 4-0 and are looking good, United's win drags them back into 'top 4' reckoning and Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Everton all won to ensure the European places are all still to play for (9 points separate 7th and 3rd).

The next 2 'weeks' will be interesting, it's F.A. Cup semi-final weekend next weekend followed the week after by a gameweek with 15 matches .... wish you'd kept more transfers up your sleeve....? .... me too. :(

Last week's 'new' leader in the TFF table has been overtaken this week by no fewer than 7 teams and the 'new' new leader also has a team in 2nd place :shock:

Leader up 60 (you know what I mean by now)
100th up 48
10k up 41
100k up 37
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Re: Graph

Post by brencarr »

Week 37 - F.A. Cup semis at Wembley, Chelsea beat Spurs 4-2 and Arsenal beat Man City 2-1 a.e.t. :evil: Apparently Zlatan is out for the rest of the season and so it was just as well Rooney came back to score for United in their win at Burnley. A Benteke double helped Palace win at Liverpool for the third consecutive season and they are now up to 12th :shock: These 2 results mean the door is open for United to steal (or earn) 4th spot .... Thursday is the Manchester derby which will add a little more spice to the run-in. We have games on 6 out of the next 7 days as we play the re-arranged fixtures .... it will be a busy week.

Leader up 46
100th up 38
10k up 37
100k up 31
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Re: Graph

Post by brencarr »

Week 38 - big scores this week as you can imagine with 15 fixtures .... and a total of 15 clean sheets to add defensive points. Two of those clean sheets were for Spurs, one of them in a 2-0 North-London derby win; they keep the gap to 4 points at the top with 4 left to play. Both Manchester clubs slipped up with drawn games and the race for 3rd & 4th place will go to the wire after Liverpool won at Watford.

Sunderland were relegated and it's looking tough for 'Boro .... happy days for the Toon Army at the moment as they will be in the Premier League next season.

Each time I look at the TFF table there seems to be a new leader. The latest has a lead of 39 points over 2nd place which is pretty handy at this stage of proceedings, although I fancy there could be more changes yet to come. He also has the team in 100th position which is a neat coincidence.

Leader up 116
100th up 95
10k up 88
100k up 72
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Re: Graph

Post by dead parrot »

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Last edited by dead parrot on 02 May 2017, 09:15, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Graph

Post by dead parrot »

brencarr wrote:
Each time I look at the TFF table there seems to be a new leader. The latest has a lead of 39 points over 2nd place which is pretty handy at this stage of proceedings, although I fancy there could be more changes yet to come. He also has the team in 100th position which is a neat coincidence.

Leader up 116
100th up 95
10k up 88
100k up 72
Overall a very good and well presented series of posts with useful information

Interesting and surprising that the team in 100th is 86th in the premier manager's league so 14 of the top 100 are not eligible for the top prize.

Presumably when you calculate the average week score (for the target) you include the Cup final week. But with only one match doesn't that distort the average? Maybe that week should only count as a tenth of a week so the divider becomes (say) 41.1 rather than 42? Though of course the FA cup weeks nearly all have a non-standard number of matches so still a slight approximation.

Why do you expect more changes of leadership? Was that the pattern last year? I notice that last year from week 32 onwards the team in 100th mostly exceeded or was very close to the leader score. That has not been the case this year but I expect every year is different. The relative decline in the leader's score tends to happen when the leader runs out of transfers so probably that is typically January to February but was it later last year?

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Re: Graph

Post by Yorkshire Exile »

dead parrot wrote:
brencarr wrote:
Each time I look at the TFF table there seems to be a new leader. The latest has a lead of 39 points over 2nd place which is pretty handy at this stage of proceedings, although I fancy there could be more changes yet to come. He also has the team in 100th position which is a neat coincidence.

Leader up 116
100th up 95
10k up 88
100k up 72
Overall a very good and well presented series of posts with useful information

Interesting and surprising that the team in 100th is 86th in the premier manager's league so 14 of the top 100 are not eligible for the top prize.

Presumably when you calculate the average week score (for the target) you include the Cup final week. But with only one match doesn't that distort the average? Maybe that week should only count as a tenth of a week so the divider becomes (say) 41.1 rather than 42? Though of course the FA cup weeks nearly all have a non-standard number of matches so still a slight approximation.

Why do you expect more changes of leadership? Was that the pattern last year? I notice that last year from week 32 onwards the team in 100th mostly exceeded or was very close to the leader score. That has not been the case this year but I expect every year is different. The relative decline in the leader's score tends to happen when the leader runs out of transfers so probably that is typically January to February but was it later last year?

mebbe your constant changing of team names has thrown him? :wink:

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Re: Graph

Post by brencarr »

The average of 50 points per week was chosen as that gave a rough target for a ballpark winning score as 42 weeks = 2,100 (last year's winning score was 2,131). Obviously some weeks have more fixtures and the F.A. Cup final is a special case but I decided to stick with 50/week to give a straight line as a rough guide.

I don't 'expect' the lead to change, I remember trying to make it more vague when I was writing it ('fancy' and 'could') because it's not based on any previous data, it was just a throwaway comment, a bit of artistic license as it were - without knowing who has how many transfers left or which players in their team I'm only guessing (the current leader could run away with it). I can't even remember how it went down on the run-in last year with lead changes, unless I commented on it at the time :)

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Re: Graph

Post by dead parrot »

brencarr wrote:The average of 50 points per week was chosen as that gave a rough target for a ballpark winning score as 42 weeks = 2,100 (last year's winning score was 2,131). Obviously some weeks have more fixtures and the F.A. Cup final is a special case but I decided to stick with 50/week to give a straight line as a rough guide.

I don't 'expect' the lead to change, I remember trying to make it more vague when I was writing it ('fancy' and 'could') because it's not based on any previous data, it was just a throwaway comment, a bit of artistic license as it were - without knowing who has how many transfers left or which players in their team I'm only guessing (the current leader could run away with it). I can't even remember how it went down on the run-in last year with lead changes, unless I commented on it at the time :)
now that you are a professional statistician I expect professional standards not 'throwaway comments' :wink:

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Re: Graph

Post by brencarr »

dead parrot wrote:
brencarr wrote:The average of 50 points per week was chosen as that gave a rough target for a ballpark winning score as 42 weeks = 2,100 (last year's winning score was 2,131). Obviously some weeks have more fixtures and the F.A. Cup final is a special case but I decided to stick with 50/week to give a straight line as a rough guide.

I don't 'expect' the lead to change, I remember trying to make it more vague when I was writing it ('fancy' and 'could') because it's not based on any previous data, it was just a throwaway comment, a bit of artistic license as it were - without knowing who has how many transfers left or which players in their team I'm only guessing (the current leader could run away with it). I can't even remember how it went down on the run-in last year with lead changes, unless I commented on it at the time :)
now that you are a professional statistician I expect professional standards not 'throwaway comments' :wink:
Haha - I know, I get nervous every week when I press 'Submit' and re-read everything 3-4 times to make sure I'm not being a numpty :)

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Re: Graph

Post by dead parrot »

brencarr wrote:
Haha - I know, I get nervous every week when I press 'Submit' and re-read everything 3-4 times to make sure I'm not being a numpty :)
Quite the contrary.
This thread is one of the most intelligent and well written around

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Re: Graph

Post by murf »

Indeed. May I make a request that next year, if it continues (hopefully), you include a line for 1000th - a more typical target for us mortals.

How would a target of 5 points per game work re the FA Cup? People won't get 5pts (average) from Hull v Chesterfield but will make that up at the later stages (Arsenal v Chelsea)

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Re: Graph

Post by brencarr »

murf wrote:Indeed. May I make a request that next year, if it continues (hopefully), you include a line for 1000th - a more typical target for us mortals.

How would a target of 5 points per game work re the FA Cup? People won't get 5pts (average) from Hull v Chesterfield but will make that up at the later stages (Arsenal v Chelsea)
I agree, I have been thinking that there is too big a gap between the 100 and 10k lines, so a 1k line sounds appropriate. I'll think on the FA Cup 'issue' over the Summer :)

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You're having a graph

Post by SamD »

If graph is being fine-tuned, these may be factors on which to cogitate...

1) Besides 38 rounds of league fixtures, the TFF game includes about 50 FA Cup ties featuring PL clubs.
An old thread shows there were 55 cup ties between Jan and May 2005; 59 in 2006; 52 in 2007;
source: Factoring in the FA Cup: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=2082
More recently: in 2016, figure was 49; this season it's a lowly 38.

Nevertheless, league and KO matches average around 430 each season.

2) Winning total over last six seasons:
  • 2010-11 = 1,866 points
    2011-12 = 2,051
    2012-13 = 2,085
    2013-14 = 2,014
    2014-15 = 1,951
    2015-16 = 2,131 (clean sheet for GK/DEF increased from six to seven)
Personal view is that current 50 points average for each TFF week is fine as a target line on the graph.

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Re: Graph

Post by SPR »

brencarr wrote:
murf wrote:Indeed. May I make a request that next year, if it continues (hopefully), you include a line for 1000th - a more typical target for us mortals.

How would a target of 5 points per game work re the FA Cup? People won't get 5pts (average) from Hull v Chesterfield but will make that up at the later stages (Arsenal v Chelsea)
I agree, I have been thinking that there is too big a gap between the 100 and 10k lines, so a 1k line sounds appropriate. I'll think on the FA Cup 'issue' over the Summer :)
If 1000 is for mortals, what do we class those that need a 5000 line as? ;-)

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Re: Graph

Post by murf »

When there is already a 10k line, you should be classed as 'optimists' ;)

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Re: Graph

Post by SPR »

:lol:

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Re: You're having a graph

Post by dead parrot »

SamD wrote:If graph is being fine-tuned, these may be factors on which to cogitate...

1) Besides 38 rounds of league fixtures, the TFF game includes about 50 FA Cup ties featuring PL clubs.
An old thread shows there were 55 cup ties between Jan and May 2005; 59 in 2006; 52 in 2007;
source: Factoring in the FA Cup: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=2082
More recently: in 2016, figure was 49; this season it's a lowly 38.

Nevertheless, league and KO matches average around 430 each season.

2) Winning total over last six seasons:
  • 2010-11 = 1,866 points
    2011-12 = 2,051
    2012-13 = 2,085
    2013-14 = 2,014
    2014-15 = 1,951
    2015-16 = 2,131 (clean sheet for GK/DEF increased from six to seven)
Personal view is that current 50 points average for each TFF week is fine as a target line on the graph.
Target for what?
50 is a nice round number and before the clean sheet inflation (and Kc inflation) approximated to the winning total over 41** weeks. Now it seems to be close to the 100th place total. So it is fine as a measure of a 'good', top 100, score if that is what the target is intended to be.
It no longer represents a winning score. That needs more like 52.
Last year the winning total appeared to be 50 * 42 but in reality should have been seen as 52*41. The inevitable dip in week 42 when only one match is played disguised the reality!
Probably academic and unnecessarily complicated but if trying to follow the target on a weekly basis 52 * 41 is closer to reality.

** 41 weeks = 38 league weeks + 50 FA cup games, where 50 cup matches translates to approx 30 matches equivalent involving two premier league teams, i.e. 38 + 30/10 = 41

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Re: Graph

Post by brencarr »

Week 39 - possibly the week when the Premier league title was decided. Spurs lost at West Ham and Chelsea's 3-0 win sent 'Boro down and opened up a 7 point lead at the top with 3 games to play.

Arsenal beat Man United which reportedly made Jose Mourinho happy for the Arsenal fans (he's as gracious in defeat as he is magnanimous in victory :roll: ). Liverpool drew 0-0 with Saints and Man City beat Palace 5-0 .... all of this means that Liverpool & Man City can't afford a slip up or they will open the door for Arsenal to sneak into 4th, Man United may have to rely on winning the Europa League to get into the Champions League next year.

The final relegation spot is between Hull, Swansea and Palace, who travel to Hull on Sunday for what really is a relegation 6-pointer.

Chelsea's clean sheet this week worked wonders for lots of TFF teams, especially as Alonso scored and Azpilicueta got a KC ....

Leader up 46
100th up 45
10k up 44
100k up 37
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Re: Graph

Post by dead parrot »

brencarr wrote:
The final relegation spot is between Hull, Swansea and Palace, who travel to Hull on Sunday for what really is a relegation 6-pointer.

Actually Palace are supposed to travel to London as are Hull.
Wouldn't want Messrs Allardyce and Zaha turning up in Hull by mistake.

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