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Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Ruth_NZ »

I wouldn't be fretting about City when you have 3 already. Especially I wouldn't be fretting about Gündoğan. He can be likened to a mushroom in my view; a fast burst into prominence which will be followed by an equally fast shrinkage back into the leaf mold. There may be another couple of GWs when he'll be a feasible captaincy contender but the clock is ticking:
  • Gündoğan may well play deeper if Rodri & Fernandinho are out, as they may well be this weekend.
  • He does play deeper if Jesus starts, as he will very likely do at least once in the DGW.
  • He will play deeper when KDB is back (not so far away), and will also lose penalties (if, indeed, he still has them now).
There is therefore no equivalency that I can see between Gündoğan & Sterling other than perhaps for a very time-limited period. The idea that they are of equal potential is to be dazzled by recency. For that reason, if you were going to force 2 transfers just to switch your City players around it would only be worth doing if Sterling were involved but personally I'd not do it at all when, as you say, there are players you'd far rather replace.

So it seems like a week to "tackle the weak link" to me. Can't make any firm suggestions because I can't see your exact squad as it stands and am not sure what your chip plans are but Wood :arrow: Watkins/Diagne would be useful this week and thereafter, while Robertson :arrow: Dallas would be useful preparation for next week. Main thing would be to only use 1FT and have 2 in hand in GW25, by which time the fixture terrain should be clearer.

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Smurphy Paw »

That’s a better response than mine
I wasn’t suggesting that Gundogan is suddenly a long term option instead of Sterling or De Bruyne just, as each of us has said, in context of moving one out for the other this week it is a sideways move and not a priority.

I didn’t need to post to add that. Equally I am not yet ready to consign Gundogan to leaf mould. At his price he could be a legitimate second midfielder for City alongside one of the two premium options. Maybe not one for a transfer in but equally he need not be the first to leave my team if I have a spare City slot. Basically, without the Free Hit Chip I might need the transfers more than I need to lose him!

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Bobby Fetta
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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Bobby Fetta »

Thank you both, that's really helpful. I think, with hindsight, I should have got Gundogan in at the point when I trippled up in defence as it is more flexible. However, maybe as Ruth says I should stick with it now rather than chasing last weeks points. Gundogan does seem to have the taste for goals at the moment though. I noticed when watching the City FA Cup game highlights last night how for the third (Jesus) goal, as Jesus controlled the ball Sterling was standing still on the edge of the area whilst Gundogan was sprinting at full speed past him towards Jesus anticipating a knockdown. On the other hand, surely he is due an injury soon. Despite FPL, I hope not as he has suffered enough and I'm glad to see him finally regaining the form he had at Dortmund on their CL final run.

My lineup for gw24 currently looks like this:

Pope (cry FUL)
Dias (TOT eve) Cancelo (TOT eve) Stones (TOT eve) Coufal (SHU)
Salah (lei) Fernandes (wba) Lookman (eve bur)
Calvert-Lewin (FUL MCI) Wood (cry FUL) Bamford (ars)

Martinez (bha) Soucek (SHU) Robertson (lei) Raphinha (ars)


Chip strategy: only have WC2 and TC left. Haven't got a strong plan for WC2 except saving it.

My suspicion, without having researched it properly yet, is that: Pope is fine and will play both games; Dias will be ok but there is a risk he is rotated out for one of the games if he's not 100%; DCL will miss both games as a even a minor hamstring strain will keep him out for a week; Wood might get some minutes off the bench but isn't going to play all of both games. Will see if any more information emerges.

Fortunately my bench is pretty strong. The logical move is to replace Wood as I don't want him after this week anyway.

Captaincy is tricky - without the flags I would probably have gone Pope then Dias then DCL for certainty of starts. Cancelo is now starting to appeal.

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Smurphy's Paw wrote:..I am not yet ready to consign Gundogan to leaf mould. At his price he could be a legitimate second midfielder for City alongside one of the two premium options...
Yes, fully agreed. If you are looking at Gündoğan v Dias/Cancelo for your 3rd City slot that would be a completely open question. Gündoğan was given a bit more license even before KDB was injured and as a 6m mid he stands up with the likes of Jota and (I'd expect) Minamino. I just don't see him as a legitimate captain option in the medium term, hence my comments.
Bobby Fetta wrote:Fortunately my bench is pretty strong. The logical move is to replace Wood as I don't want him after this week anyway.
Yes, looks that way. Watkins is an obvious replacement (as mentioned before) but it's worth taking a look at Diagne; he has more going for him than may be obvious. Maybe it depends on whether you want safety or adventure. :)

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by SirMattBugsby »

With DCL potentially injured, I'm considering Jesus as well, purely for 1 GW. Otherwise, I'll still personally go for Gundogan over Sterling. It's as much about retaining Salah as Gundo vs Sterling.

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Ruth_NZ »

SirMattBugsby wrote: With DCL potentially injured, I'm considering Jesus as well, purely for 1 GW. Otherwise, I'll still personally go for Gundogan over Sterling. It's as much about retaining Salah as Gundo vs Sterling.
There are other options. Bruno is the one I'm looking at removing, not Salah. :)

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by SirMattBugsby »

Ruth_NZ wrote:
SirMattBugsby wrote: With DCL potentially injured, I'm considering Jesus as well, purely for 1 GW. Otherwise, I'll still personally go for Gundogan over Sterling. It's as much about retaining Salah as Gundo vs Sterling.
There are other options. Bruno is the one I'm looking at removing, not Salah. :)
Yeah, I mentioned Mo because that's what Bobby was considering, and that would be my easiest route to Sterling as well. You essentially have Sterling in place of Son when compared with my team, which is great this GW of course.

I'm wondering if some short-term moves will be good for the next 4-5 GWs, thanks to a packed schedule and DGWs here and there. It's going to be 'fun', provided I can stay away and only engage on Fridays Image

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Bobby Fetta »

Thanks. I know one of my weaknesses in this game is being obstinate about not getting in a player doing unusually well. Was trying not to fall into that trap with Gündoğan.

The press conferences haven't helped much:
- to be fair to Ancelotti was very specific - DCL out against Fulham but back for City. That seems the worst result for my team this week. At least if he was out for longer it would make the decision easier.
- Dyche less so - Wood 'a doubt' for Palace.

Decision made: Wood to Watkins. I'll be really annoyed if Wood does play and do well but he's been absolutely hopeless for my team. Watkins has decent fixtures and the prospect of at least one double and likelihood of playing in gw29 too. I suspect Watkins will return to missing every good chance, just like last time I had him.

Pope (c) Cancelo (vc) is not a captaincy decision I expected at the start of the season...

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Bobby Fetta
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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Bobby Fetta »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 11 Feb 2021, 22:10 ... it's worth taking a look at Diagne; he has more going for him than may be obvious. Maybe it depends on whether you want safety or adventure. :)
I don't know much about Diagne. I think I'd like to see more evidence of a WBA upturn before making that move (i.e. I'm not that adventurous). He seems to have a very good scoring record in lower standard leagues. I might need another option if DCL's hamstring problem is worse than Ancelotti thinks

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Bobby Fetta
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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Bobby Fetta »

SirMattBugsby wrote: 12 Feb 2021, 10:21 With DCL potentially injured, I'm considering Jesus as well, purely for 1 GW. Otherwise, I'll still personally go for Gundogan over Sterling. It's as much about retaining Salah as Gundo vs Sterling.
I keep thinking of City players (including Jesus) and then remembering I've got no slots left. Can't justify using two transfers on Jesus - who has plenty of upside but equally could be benched for both matches.

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by TheRumourMill »

Sensible move Bobby

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Bobby Fetta
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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Bobby Fetta »

Well that went well. Not like I didn't see it coming either :roll:
Bobby Fetta wrote: 11 Feb 2021, 20:59 ... I should have got Gundogan ... Gundogan does seem to have the taste for goals at the moment though.... On the other hand, surely he is due an injury soon.
Bobby Fetta wrote: 12 Feb 2021, 21:24 I know one of my weaknesses in this game is being obstinate about not getting in a player doing unusually well. Was trying not to fall into that trap with Gündoğan.
Looking at LiveFPL, Gündoğan has an effective 22pts against me so far this week. Maybe I get lucky with the injury but still a mountain to climb. I should have just got him, even if it cost me a hit or two in delayed transfers down the line. FPL is really not fun in those circumstances. Its not for me to question how Lionel Messi has suddenly rematerialised in Ilkay's body or whether Hugo Lloris has Gundo in his FPL team.

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by SirMattBugsby »

Was just thinking about Gundogan the other day: he's played (and done well) under both Klopp and Pep. That's a big achievement, especially when we see how much a player like Thiago is having to adapt.

I think we're still underrating him as a player. His second goal today was reminiscent of Zidane. A lot of us felt City would miss Silva: well, they've found the replacement. Maybe not as a dribbler in tight spaces, but as a pass-and-move number 8 and definitely as a second striker.

All this praise will probably annoy you even more but it's an observation in pure footballing terms. Unfortunately we as addicts can make (and admire) these observations at peace only once we've got the bloody guy in our team.

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Bobby Fetta »

Haha. It doesn't annoy me. Sometimes things go badly (despite 4 out of 4 of my players getting returns, including my captain), what can you do?

As I said myself, he really is playing a different role and suddenly has a desire to make those late runs into the box and pick up the loose ends. He was so good at Dortmund until knocked down by injuries. Just surprising to find this new role at 30. But the point about playing for Klopp and Pep is an interesting one. I guess you can put Lewandowski in the success group whilst Goetze struggled more.

The only reason I don't own Gundogan is the 3 players from one team rule - once you're up to 3 its a real pain to swap to another. I remember I had the same thing with 3 Spurs players blocking me from getting Kane when he scored 7 goals in two games going for the golden boot - that's why I should have been more proactive last week instead of messing about with goalkeepers. It appears Martinez is going to cancel out any positive impact I got from having Pope again this week. :evil: :evil:

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Just came on to apologise for my bad advice. :|

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Bobby Fetta »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 13 Feb 2021, 22:52 Just came on to apologise for my bad advice. :|
Hey, no need for that. 100% my decision and fault!

I think if a few people had piped up that I was nuts not to have Gundogan, maybe I would have made the move, but I've seen that opinion plenty of times elsewhere and it didn't sway me. After a sleepless night, I still think I made a rank bad decision but the punishment these last two weeks is disproportionate - particularly when combined with the Martinez/Pope annoyance.

Great call on Diagne by the way - I should have listened to you on that one.

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Bobby Fetta wrote:Great call on Diagne by the way - I should have listened to you on that one.
Not too late. He's one I'd really like to get in but it has to wait on the GW26 schedule and the situation with DCL to see if I can fit him.

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Sutter Kane »

Bobby Fetta wrote: 14 Feb 2021, 14:49 the punishment these last two weeks is disproportionate
Very rarely is it proportionate. Whenever you say, I know such-and-such player could hurt me this week, they won't just grab an assist or a goal (something owners would be very content with), it'll be far worse. Take Martinez this week, not just 5 or 6 points, something owners would have taken easily, it's a bone-crunching 12 points to add to the 9 the previous week vs Arsenal.

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Sutter Kane wrote:Very rarely is it proportionate. Whenever you say, I know such-and-such player could hurt me this week, they won't just grab an assist or a goal (something owners would be very content with), it'll be far worse. Take Martinez this week, not just 5 or 6 points, something owners would have taken easily, it's a bone-crunching 12 points to add to the 9 the previous week vs Arsenal.
Driving you nuts isn't it, I can tell by the description? :lol:

There always seems to be a player like that, some bugbear that you could have but don't, or regularly hauls from your bench, or who you don't see is worthwhile but keeps scoring good points despite paltry underlying stats. I never find it hard to take when it's an expensive player whose potential is clear. It's when it's some cheap option that the twitter herd have got perpetually lucky with - Dallas for example. I found myself taking unnatural pleasure in his -1 today, even though many of his owners will have benched him. :oops:

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Bobby Fetta »

Usually:
- if it is an expensive player, at least people will have had to make sacrifices elsewhere to fit that player in
- if it is a cheap player, at least they won't be widely captained

With Gundo, neither of those applied this week.

Martinez is particularly galling for me, as I've owned him since week 1 knowing what a brilliant asset he'd be at Villa, and have even gently mocked others for benching him in the past. Getting Pope in definitely falls in the 'trying to be too clever' bin.

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Bobby Fetta »

Sutter Kane wrote: 14 Feb 2021, 16:37 Take Martinez this week, not just 5 or 6 points, something owners would have taken easily, it's a bone-crunching 12 points to add to the 9 the previous week vs Arsenal.
100%

Plus for me it was Brighton both weeks:
- Week 23 xG of 0.5 to spoil Pope's clean sheet
- Week 24 xG of 2.2 to bolster Martinez's saves and bonus

I know Martinez is brilliant and made some great saves but last time I played him in GW22 he made two errors leading to goals.

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Bobby Fetta »

What is driving me mad is the thought I could have done:
gw23: Stones to Lowton/Mee; Soucek to Gundogan

Those are moves I did consider, albeit not for long enough to write them down specifically here. Now there is always a counterfactual, every single GW, of a move that could have gone better. But at the moment I am 54-63 points down on those two transfers, which is a pretty big swing. Mssrs Pope, Stones and Soucek have got a lot of making up to do in the rest of this GW.

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Bobby Fetta »

Anyway, that's enough moaning for this GW

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Bobby Fetta wrote:..at the moment I am 54-63 points down on those two transfers, which is a pretty big swing.
Lord! You surely don't tally those points, do you? That's masochism of the first order. :shock:

When I have a move go wrong I just look at how my total compares to the average (or 10k average) and consider that to be the damage.

Funnily enough, I went out for a walk on Saturday morning and realised that instead of adding a Leeds defender in GW25 I could have taken Lowton in GW24. It seemed like quite a good idea but I knew I wouldn't be back before deadline and wasn't too bothered. A couple of hours later he had scored his first goal in 8 years or something and had a 15-pointer on the board. :lol:

In the end, what you might have done is null. Only what you did counts and the only things worth examining are any flaws in your decision-making (if they are there), not the outcomes.

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Bobby Fetta »

Yes, that's true. Part of the reason for starting this blog this year was to set down the options I considered properly, so that I could reflect on the decisions. I think I've picked up a few things and got 50% of the way on this one.

I'm a bit worried the Gundogan 'injury' will hang over him for the next GW and stop me from being able to correct my error. i.e. a don't sell don't buy scenario. I guess the best case for me is if its not clear if he's back but then he keeps missing out for a few weeks (so owners are stuck with only two City players for a while). Worst case is that he's either back for midweek or is a doubt for the weekend and then scores a hattrick (or more :lol: ).

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Javahart »

Don’t castigate yourself too hard. I started Areola over Martinez this week, was convinced Brighton would score . However, given the chance I would do it again because the odds made sense at the time. That’s all we can do and hindsight is ALWAYS 20/20 vision.


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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

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Ruth_NZ wrote: 14 Feb 2021, 19:16
Sutter Kane wrote:Very rarely is it proportionate. Whenever you say, I know such-and-such player could hurt me this week, they won't just grab an assist or a goal (something owners would be very content with), it'll be far worse. Take Martinez this week, not just 5 or 6 points, something owners would have taken easily, it's a bone-crunching 12 points to add to the 9 the previous week vs Arsenal.
Driving you nuts isn't it, I can tell by the description? :lol:
Yes. The high frequency of my posts on this matter is also a giveaway, repeatedly hijacking threads all over the shop! Same with that damned BBoost, such has been my bench scores since - I realise I'm not the only one but... my first sub last 5 weeks total = 56pts not inc DCL's 12. This is an extreme, brutal occurrence. My entire BBoost in DGW19, 10 points. This stuff is close to a 'delete account' and 'take up another hobby' scenario! And yet...

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by SG_8 »

Sutter Kane wrote: 15 Feb 2021, 09:06 Yes. The high frequency of my posts on this matter is also a giveaway, repeatedly hijacking threads all over the shop! Same with that damned BBoost, such has been my bench scores since - I realise I'm not the only one but... my first sub last 5 weeks total = 56pts not inc DCL's 12. This is an extreme, brutal occurrence. My entire BBoost in DGW19, 10 points. This stuff is close to a 'delete account' and 'take up another hobby' scenario! And yet...
You're not alone there.. points benched since using BB in DGW19:

GW20 - 29
GW21 - 11
GW22 - 13
GW23 - 24
GW24 - 11

:evil: :cry:

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by TheRumourMill »

Yeah the benched scores have been extreme recently. Partly a result of the current spread of funds I think, but its pretty galling that when you have almost the same 15 players as most of your rivals, you can still end up 40 points behind them on any given week just due to a different captaincy decision or them deciding to bench different players. Any sort of points prediction model would have the difference at 5 points at most and it ends up at 40 points :lol:

Whilst we are on the subject of being driven nuts, I think my biggest personal bugbear this season is how COVID disproportionately affected my team more than most. Week 11 I lost 3 Villa players including my only playing goalkeeper due to the outbreak at Newcastle. A few days later the Blank 18 and double 19 fixtures were announced, my team was slightly better suited for 18 and I thought the fixture list better suited to playing 18 normally, and a FH in 19 (due to the fixtures GW20 and beyond, of course this plan to FH was shelved when man u and City had fixtures rearranged into 18 and 19), so managed my team fairly normally but in a way which factored in the blank, this meant more of a focus on City and Spurs players. Of course City and Spurs were 2 of the 4 clubs affected in GW16 by Covid, so I lost another 4 players there.

Then it finally gets to week 18 and Villa get Covid so lost another 3 players there, of course they got Covid in the first blank week of the season so I have no bench, so can only field 8 men.

Managed to avoid using the FH at least, which should give a big advantage later on in the season I thought....except it won't because the one fixture I really needed in GW18 (Spurs v Villa) didn't happen, and they're going to rescedule it into GW29, which is where the value of my FH would have been seen. Except it won't now as everyone can hold their Villa and Spurs players through from doubling in 26, so thats a big strategic advantage over the field lost.

If I can reach the top 100k come season end it will be an effing miracle given the amount of BS that has hit my team, and I'd regard it as one of my best ever FPL performances. Of course when you just look at my rank it will look as nondescript as ever and will be dismissed as just another average season from an average player :lol:

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Re: Bobby Fetta - charting my failures

Post by Bobby Fetta »

GW24 review

70pts, no Gundogan = red arrow, down to 170k rank

I took a few days off but there's nothing more to say, let's move on

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