La Gazzetta dello Joccki

[Joccki_10]

Our main threats are Son and Fernandes, I think.

The top 10k average hits is -4.17. I only dropped 18k with a -8!

[Smurphy Paw]

Our main threats are Son and Fernandes, I think.

The top 10k average hits is -4.17. I only dropped 18k with a -8!

Fernandes has EO of around 120%
Kane’s EO is about 158%, although less than 100% around our ranking (I forgot to acknowledge you overtaking me with your high scoring Leeds lot on Tuesday). Thanks to my -8 I dropped 13k places from two points behind

[Joccki_10]

First City test: failed.

I thought De Bruyne didn’t look up to it at all and wasn’t his usual self. I feel somewhat lucky to get three bonus from him.

Meanwhile Stones scored after having a Threat index of 0.0 on FPL for like five or six games in a row; basically every game after his double-digit haul in that DGW.

Cancelo benched: factored in.

[From4corners]

Meanwhile Stones scored after having a Threat index of 0.0 on FPL for like five or six games in a row; basically every game after his double-digit haul in that DGW.

Your point being? He shouldn't have scored or that Threat index is just rubbish? Or both? Again, what's your point? I take it you don't have him, and feel/believe him scoring is like unfair or something, which is why you are bringing this up?

When you watch City take corners, Stones is always a threat. Threat index of 0.0 my ass.

[Joccki_10]

Meanwhile Stones scored after having a Threat index of 0.0 on FPL for like five or six games in a row; basically every game after his double-digit haul in that DGW.

Your point being? He shouldn't have scored or that Threat index is just rubbish? Or both? Again, what's your point? I take it you don't have him, and feel/believe him scoring is like unfair or something, which is why you are bringing this up?

When you watch City take corners, Stones is always a threat. Threat index of 0.0 my ass.

I got rid of him this week so that I could bring De Bruyne in which was entirely my own decision and one that could backfire which I was aware of. I don’t think it’s unfair at all that Stones scored although I do feel somewhat unfortunate that it happened this week but I take it I’m not allowed to.

[Smurphy Paw]

For me that just came across as a ‘lover scorned’ response about Stones, nothing more. Although to be accurate, Joccki scorned Stones and that was Stones’ revenge not the other way around!

[SirMattBugsby]

Ironically, Kdb's return is what increases Stones' threat.

It's pointless talking about Man City tbh. Get your three and stick with it. Change up once in a while if you want to, but there may be some initial pain.

[Ruth_NZ]

It's pointless talking about Man City tbh. Get your three and stick with it. Change up once in a while if you want to, but there may be some initial pain.

See what you are getting at but the issue of captaincy is the thing that makes it worth thinking about. Can you captain a City player, especially in a DGW? And is there any reason beyond wishful thinking to suggest that one City player is less at risk of rotation than another?

For example, I have seen all kinds of stuff written about yesterday, especially by disappointed Gündoğan owners. Some blame his reduced threat on Aguero, others on KDB... But I actually think it's quite simple: Pep rested 3 key creative players yesterday (Raheem, Bernardo, Cancelo) and City are a lesser force without them. I think Rodri makes a difference too. The short turnaround (60 hours was it?) kind of forced his hand but the replacements (Torres, Kun, Walker) aren't as good, simple as that.

Bernardo Silva seems to be mostly under-estimated by fantasy managers but to my eyes he has been at least as important as Gündoğan (I think more important) in City's run of victories. Gündoğan has had the headlines because of the goals but Silva has been fantastic, knitting it all together as his namesake used to do, whether as a false #9 or as an inside-forward. Sterling also seems to me to be pretty vital (and it's no surprise he has been captaining the team while KDB was out) because the tactic of stretching opponents through very wide wingers works best when he is one of them. As for Cancelo, well, no-one can play that inverted FB role as convincingly as him (though Zinchenko is not bad at it).

Personally I think 2 defenders, 1 attacker is the way to go for FPL, with 3 defenders as the next-best option. But the big question is whether that attacker (whoever you choose) is captainable in any given week; can you rely on it that Pep will start them and keep them on the pitch? That's what makes City a continuing focus. Give up the captaincy option and it becomes very simple indeed; pick 3 from Cancelo, Dias, Stones, Gündoğan and take the points when they come. It's the potential captaincy that keeps KDB & Sterling in play.

When you watch City take corners, Stones is always a threat.

This is true of every CB in every PL team. There are some (VVD, Vestergaard, Dawson) that are especially good at getting on the end of things but Stones isn't one of those. Partly it depends on the quality of the set-piece takers (look at the opportunities Raphinha creates from set pieces) but a lot of it is just about who the chance(s) happen to fall to in any given period of games.

Stones will be 6.5m next season. Lets see if people are so keen on his 'enhanced goal threat' then.

[Sutter Kane]

But I actually think it's quite simple: Pep rested 3 key creative players yesterday (Raheem, Bernardo, Cancelo) and City are a lesser force without them. I think Rodri makes a difference too. The short turnaround (60 hours was it?) kind of forced his hand but the replacements (Torres, Kun, Walker) aren't as good, simple as that.

Yes the personnel made all the difference to Gundogan. I think Rodri was a huge miss but the combination of players missing who would normally be there had a compounding effect on Gundogan's role. If that is correct, we'll see a different player midweek, if Gundog even plays.

[Smurphy Paw]

Good points
On Silva I don’t think that it is underestimating him, it is that we focus more on who is on the end of moves than who initiates them. Modric at Spurs was the classic example, always assisting the assister.
On Cancelo’s role, the closest I saw was some analysis of Henderson about a year ago. In the piece I saw he played that pivot role in midfield then dropped back to the RHS of defence to allow both full backs to get forward. It works the opposite way around but similarly frees up extra bodies to create the overload in attack.
Pep has been working on the system for a while, Mendy taking up similar positions two(three?) seasons ago when he had that amazing start, soon to be followed by months on the treatment table; and as you identify, as a converted midfielder Zinchenko has the attributes to achieve the same.

[Ruth_NZ]

On Silva I don’t think that it is underestimating him, it is that we focus more on who is on the end of moves than who initiates them. Modric at Spurs was the classic example, always assisting the assister.

You might not but many do, SP. For example, the assumption is made that when KDB is back he pushes Silva out of the 1st-choice XI. I don't think that is so; it's based on the wishful thinking that Gündoğan can't be left out. So, assessing the value of the players to City in real terms is also important when considering rotation risk. One can become too blinded by FPL.

From what I have seen, City's best front-6 is probably KDB-Rodri-Gündoğan; Mahrez-Silva-Sterling with Silva false #9. But Jesus and Foden are very close to that level, meaning there is rotation risk in every attacking position now. Of those 8 players, my assessment is that Sterling, KDB and Rodri are the ones that are least replaceable, even though the team can function without all of them being on the pitch at the same time.

[Smurphy Paw]

They have a squad of interchangeable players not a first-11, with enough quality in the squad to enable all of that rotation. What is most amazing is that increasingly they interchange on the pitch during games so, whilst I might be able to make a case for switching KDB and Silva’s roles in that line up, it makes little difference during the 90 minutes where each takes a turn. Imagine having to defend against them.
As for first-11 I think trying to rank, say, Foden and Jesus against that nominal best front six only becomes a consideration for a one off Cup Final.

[Ruth_NZ]

Well, that's my point really. None is safe from rotation but perhaps some are more important features for Pep than others. Trying to assess that only matters if you want a City captain but in GW27 & 28 that would be advantageous.

[Joccki_10]

Pereira, De Bruyne and Barnes v Stones, Son and Rashford +8 not looking so well at the moment.

[Ruth_NZ]

Pereira, De Bruyne and Barnes v Stones, Son and Rashford +8 not looking so well at the moment.

Mount on pens with Jorginho out. Was too cautious with hits, had I taken a -8 instead of a -4 Reguilon & Mount would be in my team instead of Raphinha & Maitland-Niles. Shoulda woulda coulda.
We could both have done with Sir Harry burying that late chance though. He now has to go big against Fulham.

[Joccki_10]

Pereira, De Bruyne and Barnes v Stones, Son and Rashford +8 not looking so well at the moment.

Mount on pens with Jorginho out. Was too cautious with hits, had I taken a -8 instead of a -4 Reguilon & Mount would be in my team instead of Raphinha & Maitland-Niles. Shoulda woulda coulda.
We could both have done with Sir Harry burying that late chance though. He now has to go big against Fulham.

And you’d be one point up now.

Yeah, Kane’s score was quite underwhelming. Especially since he scored early on. What annoys me more, (look away now, F4c,) is that my fifty-fifty call on two possible sets of transfers this DGW looks to have cost me 25+.

The team is currently 22 points down on Stones, Son and Rashford with Pereira, De Bruyne and Barnes in it and has a fixture less after the Barnes injury. The variance on close calls has been insane this season, although I could probably categorize this as my own mistake once again since the three I got rid of all have good pedigree this season and all those I’ve brought in less so. And for a -8, what was I thinking!

[SirMattBugsby]

The ones you got in have good pedigree too and, aside from Barnes, they might yet come good.

How successful has it been to go away from the template this season? Not very, I'd say. The players themselves are offering a transfer out with injuries (Grealish, KdB, Barnes, Maddison, Salah earlier), blanks and doubles. Salah and Son have been burdens for extended periods but they've then returned in others, making it difficult to decide when to sell.

Your transfers out are pro-active (so are RNZ's) and I hope they come good. I might follow suit because I'm going nowhere, rank-wise.

[Joccki_10]

The ones you got in have good pedigree too and, aside from Barnes, they might yet come good.

But not this season. Pereira hasn’t showed his real (Fantasy) potential yet and De Bruyne before his injury has been underperforming his stats big time.

How successful has it been to go away from the template this season? Not very, I'd say. The players themselves are offering a transfer out with injuries (Grealish, KdB, Barnes, Maddison, Salah earlier), blanks and doubles. Salah and Son have been burdens for extended periods but they've then returned in others, making it difficult to decide when to sell.

Agreed. Not in any way. And I just realized that if I’d gone for Son I would have already had 7 players for BGW29 and therefore I might have been able to keep my FH intact for BGW33. Rookie mistakes and all that.

[Ruth_NZ]

Pereira, De Bruyne and Barnes v Stones, Son and Rashford +8 not looking so well at the moment.

Mount on pens with Jorginho out. Was too cautious with hits, had I taken a -8 instead of a -4 Reguilon & Mount would be in my team instead of Raphinha & Maitland-Niles. Shoulda woulda coulda. We could both have done with Sir Harry burying that late chance though. He now has to go big against Fulham.

And you’d be one point up now.

Yeah, Kane’s score was quite underwhelming. Especially since he scored early on. What annoys me more, (look away now, F4c,) is that my fifty-fifty call on two possible sets of transfers this DGW looks to have cost me 25+.

The team is currently 22 points down on Stones, Son and Rashford with Pereira, De Bruyne and Barnes in it and has a fixture less after the Barnes injury. The variance on close calls has been insane this season, although I could probably categorize this as my own mistake once again since the three I got rid of all have good pedigree this season and all those I’ve brought in less so. And for a -8, what was I thinking!

Yeah, but AMN had his best fixture and Raphinha has no more. Why couldn't AMN convert that gilt-edged chance late on? And why couldn't Sir Harry convert that gilt-edged chance late on?

Look, getting stuff off your chest in a safe circumstance is good for your mental/emotional health, better than bottling it up. Swearing (expleting) has a similar effect. The only problem is whether the internet is ever a safe circumstance but I for one like to be able to have a moan with a mate (which releases short-term frustrations) even if I will come to a more considered view later. Trouble is that even in a forum like FISO, the desire to score points over others can get in the way of natural discourse of that type. Anyway, moan away, Joccki, and I hope I may as well.

Luck/variance has a pronounced effect in a game like FPL and it can be especially obvious in a DGW. 10 days ago I was really pleased with my plan to double Maddison with Barnes, it looked like a good edge to me. Then Maddison gets injured, Barnes gets seriously injured and it has all gone up in smoke. OK, stuff like this happens to everyone at some time or another but that doesn't make it easier to suffer when it happens to you, especially if you have the feeling that you are getting a lot of it.

So how do you manage the luck factor? One way - the common way - is to stay close to 'the template' and make 'safe' picks as defined by ownership. The trouble with that for me is it would make me feel essentially redundant and what would be the point in playing at all? But if you try to beat the template you are in for bigger swings of fortune. It's can be tough gig this game sometimes.

As for your -8, I think you need to take risks in a DGW. My self-criticism is that I tried to minimise cost when I should have been trying to maximise potential. Sure, big DGWs can sometimes be a damp squib (at least 3 and maybe 4 or 5 of my DGW players will only play once in this one) but they also have the potential to be transformative and you need the best skin in the game you can manage. Your -8 was aggressive, I liked it at the time (the loss of Stones was the only thing I'd have changed) and it had good chances but because it was anti-template in terms of the players removed it had the potential to blow up in your face. That's just the way it is.

We both could really do with some help in the next games. If Bruno gets little on Wednesday (the big threat) we will both have Thursday on our side. But it's the hope that kills you, isn't that what they say?

[SirMattBugsby]

I've tried to stay close to the template and play safe, now I'm dead inside (FPL-wise, of course ). The last time I felt anything was Soucek coming off my bench for Pulisic after scoring the winner against Fulham.

I do feel strongly now that for week to week involvement, a more aggressive strategy (say a mini-WC every two weeks) is, at least, more enjoyable. It definitely avoids the slow malaise that teams like mine develop, although it could admittedly be a car crash.

[Joccki_10]

Look, getting stuff off your chest in a safe circumstance is good for your mental/emotional health, better than bottling it up. Swearing (expleting) has a similar effect. The only problem is whether the internet is ever a safe circumstance but I for one like to be able to have a moan with a mate (which releases short-term frustrations) even if I will come to a more considered view later. Trouble is that even in a forum like FISO, the desire to score points over others can get in the way of natural discourse of that type. Anyway, moan away, Joccki, and I hope I may as well.

It definitely is. I actually do feel pretty bad about getting on the wrong side of this fifty-fifty call. Not necessarily because of the desire to score points over others, but more because I feel like it’s another missed opportunity to reach my desired rank. Yeah, those two points are related. I see.

I do understand From4corners though. It’s still only a game. And we’re living in a pandemic. It’s all relative; you can think I’m childish. But we haven’t been able to play football ourselves; we train once a week, it’s extremely frustrating. So I invest even more time in this silly game. I watch even more PL games. So it would be enjoyable if I can end up on the right side of those calls. Just a few times.

Luck/variance has a pronounced effect in a game like FPL and it can be especially obvious in a DGW. 10 days ago I was really pleased with my plan to double Maddison with Barnes, it looked like a good edge to me. Then Maddison gets injured, Barnes gets seriously injured and it has all gone up in smoke. OK, stuff like this happens to everyone at some time or another but that doesn't make it easier to suffer when it happens to you, especially if you have the feeling that you are getting a lot of it.

So how do you manage the luck factor? One way - the common way - is to stay close to 'the template' and make 'safe' picks as defined by ownership. The trouble with that for me is it would make me feel essentially redundant and what would be the point in playing at all? But if you try to beat the template you are in for bigger swings of fortune. It's can be tough gig this game sometimes.

As for your -8, I think you need to take risks in a DGW. My self-criticism is that I tried to minimise cost when I should have been trying to maximise potential. Sure, big DGWs can sometimes be a damp squib (at least 3 and maybe 4 or 5 of my DGW players will only play once in this one) but they also have the potential to be transformative and you need the best skin in the game you can manage. Your -8 was aggressive, I liked it at the time (the loss of Stones was the only thing I'd have changed) and it had good chances but because it was anti-template in terms of the players removed it had the potential to blow up in your face. That's just the way it is.

I’m thinking to do something similar to your No-Agüero experiment. Just for myself. Perhaps I’m even able to enjoy doing it while seeing my real team do worse.

So, on the one side I’m going to imagine I would have pulled through with the FTs Fernandes and Werner to Son and Kane and on the other side I’ll put my actual team. The fantasy fantasy team will use it’s FH in BW33. As for my actual team, I’m not sure yet.

DGW26
Actual: Pereira, De Bruyne, Barnes
Fantasy: Stones, Son, Rashford +22

DGW27
Actual: Pereira, De Bruyne (c), Barnes replacement
Fantasy: Stones, Son, Rashford replacement/Bale, (c)

[Ruth_NZ]

Trouble is that even in a forum like FISO, the desire to score points over others can get in the way of natural discourse of that type.

I actually do feel pretty bad about getting on the wrong side of this fifty-fifty call. Not necessarily because of the desire to score points over others, but more because I feel like it’s another missed opportunity to reach my desired rank.

No, you misunderstood me. I mean how people like to use hindsight to 'score points' against the apparent mistakes of others, like "well you were a fool to drop an in-form Bruno" or "well, anyone could have told you not to TC Salah when Liverpool are so poor", that kind of stuff. My favourite one is "they are template players for a reason" with the implied "you dummy".

One of my observations in life is that in terms of social interaction it is much safer to make the same mistake as many others than to make a different mistake to the majority. The tendency is to excuse or de-emphasise common errors but to highlight and condemn 'mistakes' that are 'different'. The majority of people are more concerned with appearing to be right (or not appearing to be stupid) than they are with actually trying to be right (which exposes you to ridicule when you get it wrong, which you inevitably sometimes will).

Social media just amplifies all this, of course, because when you can't see the face, the eyes, the body language of the person you are mocking/bullying/scoring points over it is easier to forget their humanity (and in the process to forget your own).

[Smurphy Paw]

Just a reminder that this time last week I was sitting pretty, Dallas, Raphinha and Bamford had blanked in their first game.
By the end of Tuesday my 8 points from Leeds led to a 50% drop in ranking.
There’s still plenty of time for it to switch around (- or to go really pear-shaped! )

[Joccki_10]

This is getting out of control. My transfers were horrible. Even Vydra can score against Leicester.

[Ruth_NZ]

This is getting out of control. My transfers were horrible. Even Vydra can score against Leicester.

Leicester have been sabotaged at just the wrong time. They looked like a big plus for teams with FH29 but Maddison's injury has weakened their attack significantly and Evans' knock when Fofana was already out took the heart from the defence.

Anyway, don't get too down yet because Bruno is now ready to deliver the coup de grâce to us both.

[Smurphy Paw]

Breaking the transfers down, no they weren’t awful
KDB was a good move. OK, Stones out was not so good but I’d rather have Kevin of all their forwards; and he picked up 3BPS which should be of reassurance.
Kane was a good move. Werner was benched so already it has paid for itself.
Frustrating though it is, Barnes was a solid move. Detaching part of his patella demands sympathy for him not angst. But in context of your team it’ll have made little difference a so many of us made the same move.
Pereira - With Brighton and Blades next it is not yet a bad move. I had Arsenal down to score. Two clean sheets from the other three and I’d count it as a success. One from the next two is probably break even, doesn’t look like there’ll be many double clean sheets this week.

I know. None of that helps. And it’d also be super helpful for me if Fulham caused you more Kane-shaped pain tomorrow. But that’s still what this game week rests on for pretty much all of us.

[Joccki_10]

Well, Operation BruNo couldn’t have gone better. But it’s exactly how you guys predicted these situations would go: You need to be right on two occasions/calls.

It’s a shame we didn’t gain any ground with this call, Ruth_NZ. Although I’m sure many will follow now by transferring him out.

[Smurphy Paw]

12 points from Captain Bruno ain’t great. I was going to point out that you guys were right too

[Ruth_NZ]

Well, Operation BruNo couldn’t have gone better. But it’s exactly how you guys predicted these situations would go: You need to be right on two occasions/calls. It’s a shame we didn’t gain any ground with this call, Ruth_NZ. Although I’m sure many will follow now by transferring him out.

Well, neither of us could have brought Kane in otherwise and we both TC'd him. So we do still have a chance to be right on both sides.

This DGW has been an utter damp squib so far, a lot of teams will struggle to break 100. Of the 7 players with the highest EO (10k), only Martinez has broken 10 points as yet and a lot of captaincies went down on Bruno. Three of those 7 are still to play however (Salah, Kane, DCL) and seeing that we both have all three with Kane tripled the GW still has potential. Especially if Sir Harry can get a brace or something.

[hancockjr]

Fulham have been very defensively sound of late. I’m not expecting much from Kane at all.