Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

[Mav3rick]

I actually did swap Ings for DCL last night after Fred's prompts, first of many switches I'm sure, and Antonio is more the "best 7.5 striker at the time" type so could easily be Watkins come GW1.

I haven't look at many/any RMTs at all, but when looking at the initial player list I just saw lots of value in defence, especially Chilwell and Dias. TAA is contingent on VVD but Liverpool's opening games are good enough to triple up I think.

It seems easy to pick a side this year, I usually have to agonise about who to take 0.5 from but ESR (perhaps I'm over-rating him) seems to solve most of the issues. I guess that Nuno going to Spurs and Doherty getting the start is also another lynch pin in that selection though.

[Mav3rick]

Three from five for me at this stage - DCL / Toney / Watkins / Ian Nacho / Antonio

The category looks to have good options but I'm not sure I'd be willing to jump in on three of them. So far I have accommodated 2 (plus a 4.5 bench rotter). I just look at the list and think - third best 6.5-7.5 striker or extra funds in defence for some really enticing premium defenders.

Realistically a couple of the <=8.0 guys might make the 160+ mark, but par scores are I think gonna be more like 130-140 - it's hard to score 15 or so PL goals.

What's the prognosis on Jimenez, I assume he's priced to be missing some part of the season, but he's not flagged or anything?

[Mav3rick]

Slight tweak as I think the 0.5 stored in the keeper can (as is usually the case) be put to better use in the outfield. Not sure who the keeper will be yet, will decide much later, but I am feeling quite happy with:

4.5/4.0
TAA, Chilwell, Dias, 5.0+4.0/4.5+4.5
Salah, Mane, Grealish, 6.0, 4.5
DCL, 7.5, 4.5

Lots to evaluate as the Euros, Olympics, transfers and pre-season goes, not least:
> Salah or Kane?
> Mane or KDB? Perhaps KDB if he still has pens, although Mane will at least be rested and has some good opening fixtures.
> Fill in the blanks at the back, and the 6.0 and 7.5 with an actual selection, but there seems to be a lot of choice.

[Aldershot Rejects]

My placeholder team is:

Meslier Sanchez
TAA Stones Dunk Fofana 4.5m (currently Mitchell)
Salah Son Jota Harrison 4.5m (currently Douglas Luiz)
Watkins Bamford Iheanacho

Will undoubtedly change a lot but having parked a team, I'm going to give it 2-3 weeks and see how the Euros and transfers play out.

Not sure I want to start with anyone who goes to the last week of the Euros.
May start with just Salah as a premium and then react to whoever starts well - I worry about fatigue with Bruno whose returns fell off at the end of the season (especially if Portugal go deep in the Euros), KDB feels overpriced and I can't get excited about Kane at Spurs (if he moves to City, he'll have to come in I think).
Son & Bamford are placeholders at the moment - £18m for an attacker/midfielder yet tbc.
I will start with Meslier in goal. Haven't yet decided whether to rotate a bit with Sanchez (e.g. GW 1/4) or downgrade him to a 4.0m GK. Probably depends on how much I need that extra 0.5m

It still feels like there is an awful lot of uncertainty - very few transfers to date, teams without managers, uncertainty about how top sides will line up that going for trusted assets from stable teams seems safest.

[TheRumourMill]

Interesting discussion. I agree there is a lot of value in defence, and there are a plethora of options in the 6.5-8m striker slot. So 3 up top in either a 3-4-3 or 4-3-3 looks sensible to me. Whilst there no doubt Chilwell and Dias look underpriced, their fixtures aren't very good early doors, and as I usually wildcard between week 4 and 9, I'm tempted to avoid them for the start. Shaw and Digne look better options in the hose slots to start with and also liberate 1m. I'm surprised at the posted who mentioned he'd seen loads of teams with TAA plus 4 4.5m Def's. Most squads I've seen have 3 ATB , the 3 being taa, digne and Shaw.

Bit confused about the Mane love, for me he's wildly overpriced and will never be captained. Bruno looks a better fit in that slot and offers captaincy. I'd drop Bruno though if kane joins city. As mentioned, the template looks strong at the moment, but there's been no transfers, the Euros are in full swing, TAA and Digne are injured, half the PL don't have managers, and pre season hasn't started. Plenty of time for things to change.

[wahine]

wahine Draft
Almost certain to play 3 4 3
Goalkeeper Sanchez saves a much needed .5 (4.0 Foster).

Defence
Set and forget trio TAA, Robertson and Dias if all fit and ready and happy to play all three regardless of fixtures.
Future plans might include dropping one for Chilwell.
Then the decision whether to spend an extra .5 on Fofana, White or Lamptey...
or Neco W gets offered a playing position with another club another 4.0 Def set at E3
Two 4.0 defenders are a gamble but I consider it a viable gamble if the top tier trio are all expected to start.

Trio of forwards with DCL, Watkins, Cavani?

One Premium Mo Salah at the outset, Bissouma for E1 and 22m to spend on three mix n match in midfield, giving plenty of options
Raphina, (or Harrison) Rashford, James (Everton), Foden, Mahrez, Lingard, Pulsic, Grealish...

Disadvantage - no Bruno who will be highly owned.

I would really like to nail a starting lineup, so that I don't have to use the early wildcard, but prices are so turbulent in FPL now days/years,
which I think has led me astray as I used to be careful with my one transfer .

I have joined the under 10K league this season so every time I look at my team I am reminded that I CAN get there.

[chiplesschaps]

@TheRumourMill - I was basically referring to all the drafts with 3 super premiums which seems to be very popular In isolation you're right in that Shaw & Digne are among the highest owned defenders right now.

[Hogmeister]

Initial draft, bound to change a lot in the coming weeks...

Sanchez / Foster

TAA / Shaw / Digne / Coufal / White

Salah / Bruno / Grealish / Raphina / 4.5

DCL / Watkins / 4.5

General observation - with benchwarmers/cheap defenders at the start of the season, I try to choose higher risk players who may see a big increase in value (e.g. by getting a transfer), rather than the more predictable/steady picks.

[Hogmeister]

Had a little play with a spreadsheet this week, trying to assess my year-on-year FPL performance allowing for the fact that the number of players has gone through the roof in recent years.

This is what I came up with (I found the numbers of players each year on the internet somewhere, happy to be corrected if any of them are wrong)...

3CD05B3E-2358-4184-9D32-B46C884004A0_4_5005_c.jpeg

So, for example, that would say that my performance last year, where I finished in a 20k position, was actually better than 6 years ago when I was in 10k. And similarly, the year that I thought was terrible, in 2018-19 when I only just scraped in the top 100k, was actually a much better performance than my 53k finish back in 2011-12.

Anyone else done anything similar?

[baganboy]

I think it has become much tougher to get top 50K (say), or even top 10k, with the proliferation of information available - and this has got less to do with the increase in number of playing teams, and more to do with the easy availability of information.
It is just as tough as 10 years ago to get to top 1K, say.

[baganboy]

I really, really hope there will be an STC thread this year. It is an institution.

[Neath boy]

Welcome back Baganboy. Hope all good your end?

[baganboy]

Hey Neath Boy. Thanks! Yes, things are good, and good to be back .
Twitter, long term, is not my cup of tea....

[Hogmeister]

I think it has become much tougher to get top 50K (say), or even top 10k, with the proliferation of information available - and this has got less to do with the increase in number of playing teams, and more to do with the easy availability of information.

Yeah good point - athough I would have thought the extra information available would actually be an additional kicker to the above stats, which would make the differences even more stark. For example, let's say for the sake of argument that it is now twice as hard as it was 10 years ago to get in the top 1%, due to the proliferation of information available. So a finish in the top 1% of 10 years ago is an equivalent performance to a top 2% now.

Because of the increase in players, the 1% finish of 10 years ago would be about 24k, whereas a 2% finish last season would be a position of about 160k.

So those figures would imply a 24k finish of 10 years ago is equivalent to a 160k finish last year! Probably overstating the "extra info" factor here, but it demonstrates the point that it's much more competitive these days.

It is just as tough as 10 years ago to get to top 1K, say.

And I understand why you'd say this (top 1k players are less likely to be affected by any extra info available to the masses), but I would suggest the increase in the number of players should lead to a proportional increase in the players of "top 1k quality". So it is now much harder to get into the top 1k (which would now require a top 0.02% finish) compared to 10 years ago, when it would only have required a top 0.05% finish... so more than twice as easy as today.

[Hogmeister]

I really, really hope there will be an STC thread this year. It is an institution.

Yep, me too!!

[Mav3rick]

The STC has always been something of a community thread, although Sammy hosted the first 3 or 4 editions and the thread of course still bears his name, the mod team only started it the last few seasons I would say because its easier for them to grab the opening post content and re-submit it.

However, that could surely be added in at a later time (as well as the stickying) if Sammy, or perhaps another thread regular, wanted to get the ball rolling.

[I2EDSAVA]

Get into this every year but not religiously but been reading these forums abit for people's opinions so thought i'd sign up and get involved,post my team thus far and see where people would improve. I don't usually go strong defence and bench hut doing it differently this time for a strong squad. Smith Rowe and Foden are the least likely to survive. Been looking at Son but like all of us it will change a million times between now and the start of the season.

---------Sanchez---------

TAA..Cancelo..Digne..Chillwell

.....Foden..Salah..Buendia

......Iheanachi-Watkins-Wilson

Bench.
Guaita, Smith Rowe, Raphinha, White

[Mav3rick]

Welcome along! The front line is always the tricky thing at the moment, everyone's is a bit up in the air for now while we wait for transfers and/or pre season matches to get a bit more serious

For my tastes you have a bit much on the bench, but in what could easily be another covid affected season, that may not be a bad shout.

[I2EDSAVA]

Cheers mate! Yeah i'm toying with downgrading Smith Rowe and Wilson for 4.5's, putting Raphinha in the starting XI and using the spare cash to improve elsewhere. Maybe Buendia-Son.

My problem is i don't trust my gut. Buendia was one of the first i chose so i know i'll take.him out and he'll blitz it.


Being a Liverpool fan i'm trying to stick to my non Utd player rule but finding it hard with all their attacking options

[Mav3rick]

I'd say it's worth at least having a price point for an extra premium mid (whether that's Sancho/penandes or someone else), there are a lot of options there and it's a good price point to reach for flexibility.