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Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Mo Bot »

Draft 1 of 327

Ryan/Button
TAA/Saliba/Vinagre/Pieters/Ferguson
Salah/Aubameyang/Sterling/Foden/Greenwood
Wood/Bamford/Davis

0.5 left

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Gambit »

Mo Bot wrote: 16 Aug 2020, 10:25 Draft 1 of 327

Ryan/Button
TAA/Saliba/Vinagre/Pieters/Ferguson
Salah/Aubameyang/Sterling/Foden/Greenwood
Wood/Bamford/Davis

0.5 left
other than KDB for Sterling and a 6.0 striker ahead of Bamford that's identical to my rough draft, probably can't start with it though if United and City are blanking, but all things being equal that's the set up I like with the three big midfield slots and can swap between them if and when it's required - Arsenal have a horrible run but United or City have a great run so switch Auba to Fernandez or Sterling etc, should always be covered to have a great captain too.

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by blahblah »

Am I right in thinking Citeh play in GW1.

Do MU have to win another match to not play in GW1?

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by dino1980 »

Thought i'd grab some stats from https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/stats/Premier-League-Stats

See if there were any interesting conclusions to be drawn from them.

xG+xA per 90:

- Aguero still the king when fit
- The rule of 'if one City striker is injured, get the other', still holds
- KDB, Raz and Salah premium priced for good reason, and well ahead of Mane, Auba and Bruno
- Antonio :shock:
- Rashford high up
- Werner had 1.00 xG+xA p90 - so =1st
xG = xA p90.png

xG only - goals are worth more points after all
- The rule of 'if one City striker is injured, get the other, still holds. For draft, getting the Aguero/Jesus double up looks like an intersting strategy.
- Antonio :shock:
- Vardy = Mr Reliable - top 10 in all three categories
- Kane looks done as an FPL asset imo
- There's a whiff of underprice about 6.5M Diogo Jota
- Werner 0.71 p90 so 3rd
xg P90.png
Non penalty xG+xA per 90: who suffers if you take away their penalty xG (0.76 per penalty)

- City dominate - five of the top six
- Salah is still Salah
- Antonio :shock:
- Big falls for Rashford and Bruno - all aboard the McGoldrick bandwagon :D (United's last five seasons in terms of pens received - 14,12,3,4,3)
- Werner had 0.92 so 2nd
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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Mav3rick »

Good stats Dino, and very timely as I stare at the 4.5 striker in my squad and feel it looks an awful lot better with Aguero and a 1.0 saving (over Sterling).

Antonio is one that I'm bemused by, surely its just a case of a massively hot streak (of chances & goals) for a small sample size. I get that Moyes has a certain style and Antonio fits it well, but his numbers surely can't be considered sustainable going into the new season (he says as Antonio sits in his squad since the first draft :lol:).

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by blahblah »

Having Antonioo and Soucek (sp?) is plain wrong given my loathing of Club and Manager.....

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Thanks Dino, that's useful.

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by dino1980 »

Mav3rick wrote: 16 Aug 2020, 19:14 Good stats Dino, and very timely as I stare at the 4.5 striker in my squad and feel it looks an awful lot better with Aguero and a 1.0 saving (over Sterling).

Antonio is one that I'm bemused by, surely its just a case of a massively hot streak (of chances & goals) for a small sample size. I get that Moyes has a certain style and Antonio fits it well, but his numbers surely can't be considered sustainable going into the new season (he says as Antonio sits in his squad since the first draft :lol:).
Even if we take ‘that game’ out of Antonio’s Numbers which per understat were 2.94 xG and 0.58 xA he still ends up at 0.6xG p90 and 0.14 xA. Still stand up and take notice numbers for a 6.5m FWD.
The beauty of Antonio is that if he doesn’t work out his price point has Wood, Mitro and Maupay as outs. I’d be worried about starting with two of that bracket, but one of them seems fine.
Edit: I’d like to take a deeper look at his numbers pre and post lockdown. How they change if he’s CF or winger etc.

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Mav3rick »

Draft 2 after a few hours of contemplation looks like this:

4.5, 4.0
TAA, VVD, Saliba, Vinagre, 4.5
Salah, Greenwood, Mount, Foden, 4.5
Aguero, Werner, 6.5.

I'm definitely feeling that a Liverpool double in defence, combined with a starting Arsenal and Wolves defender at 4.5 is a very solid back 3/4 (assuming some rotation) while the 5th defender provides good sub opportunities for any Foden no-shows. This is obviously dependent on there actually being a starting Arsenal defender for 4.5!

I do much prefer having no 4.5 deadspot up front when Foden is involved in the team, and having Aguero over Sterling feels fine, especially with a 1.0 saving, and I really very much prefer having only one 6.5 forward as at least that way Wood and Antonio offer backup to each other in case of injury.

The Werner/Mount axis I'm not set on and could easily change, Mount especially is more of a placeholder for an up to 7.0 mid and there are several I have my eye on. but I do have a feeling that with Pulisic, Werner and Ziyech there are a lot of goals in that Chelsea forward line.

Overall I'm much happier with the balance of this team over the Salah+Sterling efforts I've constructed, so it's my favoured structure for the time being.

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

Mo Bot wrote: 16 Aug 2020, 10:25 Draft 1 of 327

Ryan/Button
TAA/Saliba/Vinagre/Pieters/Ferguson
Salah/Aubameyang/Sterling/Foden/Greenwood
Wood/Bamford/Davis

0.5 left
I'd stay away from Bamford, we're trying hard to sign a new striker and Bamford won't score much even if we don't. Put your £5.5m to better use. Maybe just spend the extra £0.5m and get Adams or Mitrović.

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Stevieste »

Mav3rick wrote: 16 Aug 2020, 20:22 Draft 2 after a few hours of contemplation looks like this:

4.5, 4.0
TAA, VVD, Saliba, Vinagre, 4.5
Salah, Greenwood, Mount, Foden, 4.5
Aguero, Werner, 6.5.

I'm definitely feeling that a Liverpool double in defence, combined with a starting Arsenal and Wolves defender at 4.5 is a very solid back 3/4 (assuming some rotation) while the 5th defender provides good sub opportunities for any Foden no-shows. This is obviously dependent on there actually being a starting Arsenal defender for 4.5!

I do much prefer having no 4.5 deadspot up front when Foden is involved in the team, and having Aguero over Sterling feels fine, especially with a 1.0 saving, and I really very much prefer having only one 6.5 forward as at least that way Wood and Antonio offer backup to each other in case of injury.

The Werner/Mount axis I'm not set on and could easily change, Mount especially is more of a placeholder for an up to 7.0 mid and there are several I have my eye on. but I do have a feeling that with Pulisic, Werner and Ziyech there are a lot of goals in that Chelsea forward line.

Overall I'm much happier with the balance of this team over the Salah+Sterling efforts I've constructed, so it's my favoured structure for the time being.
What about the main man KDB ?

He been only player ive got as a set and forget this season

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Mav3rick »

I just think Aguero + 1.0 is a better deal than KDB, with the added bonus that it's really helpful for squad structure. I don't blame anyone for going with KDB instead though!

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Gambit »

Very surprised to see Aguero starting to appear in teams, I know he's a world class striker but in 9 years in FPL he's only hit 200 points three times.

Sterling has just done it three times in a row, Salah three times in a row, Mane twice in a row, KDB has two in four plus a 199, Auba twice in a row and now a midfielder too, Kane has done it three times in just six full seasons, and Vardy two in six while outscoring Aguero in three of the last five years.

Unless Jesus gets a bad injury or falls completely out of favour (cant see it) I don't see how Aguero can match the big hitting midfielders.

EDIT - add in the removal of early team news and he could even be a captaincy risk if he's benched for Jesus, much prefer Sterling and KDB even for the extra 1m
Last edited by Gambit on 16 Aug 2020, 20:55, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Patrician »

I'm also on Aguero instead of KDB, I think Aguero is the standout City premium pick at that price.

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Patrician »

Gambit wrote: 16 Aug 2020, 20:52 Very surprised to see Aguero starting to appear in teams, I know he's a world class striker but in 9 years in FPL he's only hit 200 points three times.

Sterling has just done it three times in a row, Salah three times in a row, Mane twice in a row, KDB has two in four plus a 199, Auba twice in a row and now a midfielder too, Kane has done it three times in just six full seasons, and Vardy two in six while outscoring Aguero in three of the last five years.

Unless Jesus gets a bad injury or falls completely out of favour (cant see it) I don't see how Aguero can match the big hitting midfielders.
Aguero is the most explosive player in the entire league, easily the most likely to score 3 or 4 goals in a game. The reason he doesn't get 200+ every season is that he gets injuries and rarely plays all season. When fit though, he is the man.

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Gambit »

Patrician wrote: 16 Aug 2020, 20:56
Gambit wrote: 16 Aug 2020, 20:52 Very surprised to see Aguero starting to appear in teams, I know he's a world class striker but in 9 years in FPL he's only hit 200 points three times.

Sterling has just done it three times in a row, Salah three times in a row, Mane twice in a row, KDB has two in four plus a 199, Auba twice in a row and now a midfielder too, Kane has done it three times in just six full seasons, and Vardy two in six while outscoring Aguero in three of the last five years.

Unless Jesus gets a bad injury or falls completely out of favour (cant see it) I don't see how Aguero can match the big hitting midfielders.
Aguero is the most explosive player in the entire league, easily the most likely to score 3 or 4 goals in a game. The reason he doesn't get 200+ every season is that he gets injuries and rarely plays all season. When fit though, he is the man.
Indeed, seems to be picking up more injuries as he gets older and the rotation with Jesus isn't going away, I'm confident that KDB and Sterling will outscore him again this season, so a case of what does the extra 1m do elsewhere to make up for it.

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by FirstWeekWildcard »

Some thoughts.

Early game before value mids and forwards become clear (Michu, 15/16 Mahrez etc.), premium defenders should be better VFM than equivalently priced forwards. For example VVD should be better VFM than Wood/Traore/Perez. Acknowledge VORP and team/position blocking but I'm talking just individual players in isolation.

I want Salah for captain rotation but am conscious that the Liverpool defenders should offer great VFM. Using 3 of them and assuming a City perma-captain, you can get:

4.5, 4.0
TAA, Robbo, VVD, 4.5, X
KDB/Sterling, Y, Foden, Soucek, 4.5
Aguero, Werner, 6.5

Where X+Y = 12 and you could feasibly play 4-3-3 or 3-4-3

So:
Is having Salah so vital that you forego the VFM in the Liverpool defence?
Would KDB perma-captain and tripling City attack negate the loss of a Salah captain option?
Soucek XG90 not far off Greenwood XG90, are either actually credible options, or they each overperform in limited sample sizes?
Same with Antonio? You can sense my distrust of West Ham.

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Patrician »

Gambit wrote: 16 Aug 2020, 20:58 Indeed, seems to be picking up more injuries as he gets older and the rotation with Jesus isn't going away, I'm confident that KDB and Sterling will outscore him again this season, so a case of what does the extra 1m do elsewhere to make up for it.
I agree they will outscore him, but most likely not for the matches he is fit. We have transfers for when he gets injured and then it is an easy switch to Jesus.

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Gambit »

Patrician wrote: 16 Aug 2020, 21:03
Gambit wrote: 16 Aug 2020, 20:58 Indeed, seems to be picking up more injuries as he gets older and the rotation with Jesus isn't going away, I'm confident that KDB and Sterling will outscore him again this season, so a case of what does the extra 1m do elsewhere to make up for it.
I agree they will outscore him, but most likely not for the matches he is fit. We have transfers for when he gets injured and then it is an easy switch to Jesus.
But he likely won't play every match that he's fit as Jesus won't just be banished in a Stones like manner.

Anyway, we'll just go about it in different ways, if City have some killer fixtures against the whipping boys and it looks like Aguero will play then I'll bring him in and C him, but over the course of the season Sterling and/or KDB will be in my squad for more time.

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Mav3rick »

If you level out Aguero's minutes over the last 3 seasons to 2400 then he's over 200 points each of the last three, and the 1.0 saving I would conservatively say is worth 30 points elsewhere. It's into the same sort of territory as KDB and Sterling at least, and given a game that we're confident of both Sterling and Aguero starting, I think I'd rather captain Aguero.

I think there's some added benefit in using up one of the striker slots too. What I am concerned about, is that as and when he does pick up an injury having only Kane to fall back on might mean a double transfer...

Also, with matches packed in tight, I do wonder if we're gonna see a lot of minutes managed, Sterling and Aguero included.
Last edited by Mav3rick on 16 Aug 2020, 21:12, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Patrician »

FirstWeekWildcard wrote: 16 Aug 2020, 21:00 Is having Salah so vital that you forego the VFM in the Liverpool defence?
I have tried this one before, the three pool defenders and no Salah/Mane. It didn't end well.

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by FirstWeekWildcard »

Patrician wrote: 16 Aug 2020, 21:09
FirstWeekWildcard wrote: 16 Aug 2020, 21:00 Is having Salah so vital that you forego the VFM in the Liverpool defence?
I have tried this one before, the three pool defenders and no Salah/Mane. It didn't end well.
Did you analyse why? Were you unlucky with Liverpool clean sheets or alternative captains?

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Mav3rick »

FirstWeekWildcard wrote: 16 Aug 2020, 21:00 Early game before value mids and forwards become clear (Michu, 15/16 Mahrez etc.), premium defenders should be better VFM than equivalently priced forwards. For example VVD should be better VFM than Wood/Traore/Perez. Acknowledge VORP and team/position blocking but I'm talking just individual players in isolation.
I'm not sure you can assume accurate prediction of the best defences either (Michu was super obvious though :D). By all means consider 3 super premium defenders (it looks viable to me), but if your ultimate desired structure is an extra mid-priced midfielder, then building in early transfers isn't a good plan IMO. Best to have a guess at the right midfielder for your squad, and then just require the one transfer IF you're wrong, rather than needing 2 transfers for certain.
Last edited by Mav3rick on 16 Aug 2020, 21:17, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Patrician »

It was the lack of flexibility and difficulty of getting Salah or Mane if they start running hot.

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Gambit »

I don't have the info to hand for this season (just finished) but the year before Aguero v Sterling:

BLANKS: Aguero 12 in 33 games / Sterling 14 in 34 games

Double digit hauls: Aguero 5 in 33 games / Sterling 9 in 34 games

Sterling with almost double the amount of double digit hauls, if KDB is still on pens I don't think Aguero will match Sterling for the big hauls, KDB a beast for the double digit hauls too so don't agree that Aguero is the one most likely to score big, not anymore, Sterling and KDB are the kings of the City castle these days.

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Mav3rick »

I don't know how you're counting games there, if its only starts or not, but either way, it doesn't really concern me too much because a double digit haul is a slightly arbitrary cut off point, much easier for midfielders to hit with 2 points extra for a goal and a clean sheet.

In general terms, Aguero still has better underlying goal-getting ability than Sterling or KDB, and since we're only likely to put the armband on when pretty certain of a start that's more or less the crucial points-based factor for my thought process. That plus, as I say, I think his price and position makes my squad structure fit together slightly better right now.

Salah is likely to be my captain most games anyway I imagine!

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Gambit »

Mav3rick wrote: 16 Aug 2020, 21:28 I don't know how you're counting games there, if its only starts or not, but either way, it doesn't really concern me too much because a double digit haul is a slightly arbitrary cut off point, much easier for midfielders to hit with 2 points extra for a goal and a clean sheet.

In general terms, Aguero still has better underlying goal-getting ability than Sterling or KDB, and since we're only likely to put the armband on when pretty certain of a start that's more or less the crucial points-based factor for my thought process. That plus, as I say, I think his price and position makes my squad structure fit together slightly better right now.

Salah is likely to be my captain most games anyway I imagine!
fair enough, and as I said Aguero will be in my team and C at some points this season, I just see him as a player to get at the right time these days rather than keep for the long term (like Salah or KDB), I think with injuries and the constant threat of Jesus that he's not somebody for me to build around.

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Re: Speculative Tactical Cohort (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 20/21)

Post by Pulpy »

Mav3rick wrote: 16 Aug 2020, 19:14 Antonio is one that I'm bemused by, surely its just a case of a massively hot streak (of chances & goals) for a small sample size. I get that Moyes has a certain style and Antonio fits it well, but his numbers surely can't be considered sustainable going into the new season (he says as Antonio sits in his squad since the first draft :lol:).
At 6.5 he does not need to sustain his late season numbers though. Only injury concerns or a pre season indication of a positional switch removes him from my team. Wood, Che Adams and even potentially Iheanacho as back up at that price point too.

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