Stu255 RMT 19/20

[Stu255]

Latest thinking is somewhere around this...

07A0BF69-4134-450B-9E09-FE5A3BA47954.png

Might be some changes yet, but I think this my basic preferred format. 1x captain and 5x premier DEF’s all from big 6, I think this is the way to go for me.


Fraser in for KDB is about the only change I am considering at the moment, that leaves £1.5m in the bank! Any other suggestions welcome.

[Smurphy Paw]

The first observation is ‘Wilson and King’
You’re the first I have seen to resolve that conundrum by having both. Plenty of us going for a pair of Bournemouth players in our front eight, this particular pairing isn’t something that had occurred to me though. Hmmm...

Second observation is that with six premium players at the back there’s very little flexibility further forward. Are you comfortable with that?

[jonhoggy]

You're too heavy at the back and light up front. We know little about the Lampard impact so brave going with two defenders from the off. I agree with above, there is no flexibility and you will want a premium striker at some point so I would start with one.

[Smurphy Paw]

I wasn’t advocating for a premium striker necessarily. The 8.0/6.5/4.5 isn’t the issue - lots on the STC thread in particular about getting cash in defence and midfield.
Lack of flexibility is a consideration though

[blahblah]

I'm on something very similar, but with no Chelsea at the back - I guess that you're a fan?

As opposed to SP, this is the second Bou top 2 and my issue is as much the cost as all the eggs in one basket. Swap Wilson to a 6-7m Fwd and Ederson to Fab\Pickford and one Chelsea can be Laporte. Also Greenwood can be upgraded to a player who will play....

And then it will be very close to my current rabble.

[blahblah]

I wasn’t advocating for a premium striker necessarily. The 8.0/6.5/4.5 isn’t the issue - lots on the STC thread in particular about getting cash in defence and midfield.
Lack of flexibility is a consideration though

Flexibility is a good yet bad word, imho, and it depends on whether people are talking about balance.

Without getting into a squabble about what balance means, I don't think it is relevant until the 1st WC. Before that it is either a sprint for points or trying to avoid being shite, but after we are in marathon land and will have had to make long term decisions.

[Stu255]

The first observation is ‘Wilson and King’
You’re the first I have seen to resolve that conundrum by having both. Plenty of us going for a pair of Bournemouth players in our front eight, this particular pairing isn’t something that had occurred to me though. Hmmm...

Second observation is that with six premium players at the back there’s very little flexibility further forward. Are you comfortable with that?

With BOU pair my thinking is that their fixtures are so easy in GW1 and 2 that one (or both) of those two will get goals and be and early bandwagon.

At the back, I just see vastly more value. Especially with anomalies like Robertson and chasing premium strikers has been a wild goose chase for me. Can’t see anybody scoring 30 goals.

[Stu255]

I'm on something very similar, but with no Chelsea at the back - I guess that you're a fan?

As opposed to SP, this is the second Bou top 2 and my issue is as much the cost as all the eggs in one basket. Swap Wilson to a 6-7m Fwd and Ederson to Fab\Pickford and one Chelsea can be Laporte. Also Greenwood can be upgraded to a player who will play....

And then it will be very close to my current rabble.

Not a Chelsea fan.

But their defence was excellent last season (16 clean sheets) and I think that without Hazard they will be more reliant on wing backs this year.

At the back I have...
2x Pool, 2x City, 2x Chelsea which was 21, 20 and 16 clean sheets last season.

There are plenty of other premium defenders available should I need to transfer around injuries.


I think the BOU pair are good value for GW1-2 but they have many soft fixtures in the first 10 games. I just don’t see much value in the FWD’s category. Jimenez is good but his fixtures stink.

[Stu255]

Have changed this again now. Still thinking 5-3-2


Ederson, Button

Robertson, Laporte, TAA, Zinchenko, Azpilicueta

Fraser, Salah(c), Siggurdsson, (£5m), (£4.5)

King, Wilson, (£4.5m)


That leaves £1.5m in the bank, which is my “grease the wheels money” for when I bin 2x BOU players after GW2 for CHE/TOT.

I do feel the call to find a way to splurge that spare £1.5m but I think it’s more valuable on the side. It will probably save me a hit or two in the early weeks.


****
edit: I just think at this part of the season it is extremely difficult to pick exactly the right players, therefore it is more important to have the right structure so that you are weighted towards where the value is in the player landscape and that you can move the right players in and out with minimal friction when the time comes.

The game gets increasingly dependent on luck as you get more and more granular (there is a lot of luck involved with decisions at the individual player and individual GW level). Whereas at the team level and the season level there is much less luck at play. The trick is not to get sucked into sweating the granular decisions and to keep your mind focused on the higher level decisions.

There are probably 40-50 granular decisions over a season and 4-8 higher level decisions. Only about 10% of the decisions require deep thought. At this point it’s not picking the individual players, it’s picking the formation and the allocation in each bracket that matters.

[Stu255]

OK,

Think I finally have it. Save for any last minute transfers, injuries or team news...

415B5380-8E0C-4270-9EBF-B4754E3F3623.png

Bit of an odd formation but I think this finds the most value from the prices given. Bit worried about a Zinchenko starting, but other than that I’m happy to have squeezed as much as possible from my £100m.

[blahblah]

Interestingly, or not, I only have 3 of those in my 541

[Luxmonk]

Hmmmm, cue...
Liv 2 - 1 Norwich
WHU 1 - 2 ManC
Bou 0 - 0 SHU

[Stu255]

A). Zinckenko, Siggurdsen, Vardy

OR...

B). Wan-Biz, KDB, Jimenez

[dustyb]

I love reading the RMT threads from the beginning after a few posts. The original posters always go around in circles, makes me happy it's not just me

Your defensive heavy teams look very strong, and are probably the right approach. I find it's difficult following results on a saturday rooting for defenders; I much prefer to have an attacking team and try to find the underpriced or form players to make that worth while.

Interesting comments regarding the granular vs big picture decisions too, food for thought.

[blahblah]

A). Zinckenko, Siggurdsen, Vardy

OR...

B). Wan-Biz, KDB, Jimenez

B, but Shaw is better going forward than W-B?

[Stu255]

B, but Shaw is better going forward than W-B?

Yes but he is made of glass.

[blahblah]

B, but Shaw is better going forward than W-B?

Yes but he is made of glass.

I'll ponder fat glass

[Stu255]

Which is stronger?

This team...

3EF7A89F-3DF7-4929-BC75-A16F10C8C994.png

Or this team...

82D8881B-1716-479F-9DB6-F50401375909.png

Hmmmm?

[blahblah]

KdB one, but I'm not overly big on your supporting cast.

[Stu255]

Deadline day and have settled on this...

021117D3-E0F3-4D08-BF44-268D4507F434.png

Bench is weak as a kitten, and King is on passable due to his easy fixtures... but elsewhere is looking good.

[DavidLloydIsAHero]

Eriksen is the one for me, every chance he is left out at the weekend. Could downgrade to get Wilson/Vardy and the extra flexibility that provides

No love for the Donkey?

[Stu255]

Eriksen is the one for me, every chance he is left out at the weekend. Could downgrade to get Wilson/Vardy and the extra flexibility that provides

No love for the Donkey?

Yeah but Son is suspended until 25th and Alli has popped his hamstring.

I’m pretty sure Eriksen will start the first few weeks.

[blahblah]

Eriksen is the one for me, every chance he is left out at the weekend. Could downgrade to get Wilson/Vardy and the extra flexibility that provides

No love for the Donkey?

Yeah but Son is suspended until 25th and Alli has popped his hamstring.

I’m pretty sure Eriksen will start the first few weeks.

And ping his ACL so he goes for nowt in 12 months

[DavidLloydIsAHero]

Eriksen is the one for me, every chance he is left out at the weekend. Could downgrade to get Wilson/Vardy and the extra flexibility that provides

No love for the Donkey?

Yeah but Son is suspended until 25th and Alli has popped his hamstring.

I’m pretty sure Eriksen will start the first few weeks.

Could still go Moura and Lamela (who Spurs fans a raving about atm) with 3 in the middle, unlikely for this game maybe but less so against City

[Stu255]

Current team...

25A91665-9030-481B-A56F-753E8B4AAB5B.png

Had a couple of mediocre gameweeks so far, but I’ve never been more comfortable with my team. The underlying numbers are good.

Frustrating trying to find an upgrade for King.
I think Pukki is an interesting bandwagon but his fixtures now are awful and Norwich have really outperformed their xG so far. So I’m not sure Pukki is sustainable, a good TV move but maybe not so many pts.

Chelsea look poor and their transfer ban is an excuse for everyone at the club to coast. So will probably switch Azpil, Digne is the obvious move but then I have 3 EVE (which feels a bit odd).

Lots of people switching away from the 2x Pool defence after Alisson injury, but really?
Its VVD who keeps the sheets clean at Anfield.
They’re not quite sizzling yet, but Klopp is too good a manager for them to spoil.

I’m just quite happy to sit on my hands. Playing 5-4-1 and not had many CS yet, but still well within striking distance of teams playing 3-4-3 who have had hattrick hauls each week (Sterling/Pukki).

Utd are a bit of an unknown for me at this point. Martial looks too good to be true if he can keep the striker position but I just don’t think that’s sustainable either. Not if Rashford is going to be kept happy.

City are a class apart this year and from what I have seen so far KDB is the best player in the league by some distance. He was sensational against Spurs. Some of the passes he tried, his vision for space was at times so good as to be completely alien.

I think City are going to score an obscene number of goals with KDB playing like this. He’s just boiling over with big chances and everyone in the team knows it.

[Stu255]

OK, have taken a hit this week to swap Pogba and King for Kane and Douglas Luiz who is sitting on the bench.

Plan to captain Kane for GW3.

B26CCEA2-49FB-487A-802D-ADAFF2BBA2BF.png

This gives me the captain options of Salah, KDB, Kane whilst also having 5 premium defenders.

Although the 5 premium defenders hasn’t really paid off yet. I’m hopeful that things will revert to norm. I’m hoping Klopp abandons this offside trap after experimenting with some easy fixtures.

[SirMattBugsby]

Did you consider Sterling over Salah?

[ajcairns]

your fpl button seems to be out of date too Stu

[Stu255]

Did you consider Sterling over Salah?

Yes, I think they are both equivalent.

It’s easy to spend a huge amount of energy trying to split hairs between two players that are basically the same in statistical / probability terms.

One of the things I like here is having Salah, Kane, KDB gives good captain options without the need of transfers.

I have to expect all 3 to score 220 - 250 over the season, there is plenty of evidence they can do that. But it’s not a given.

KDB instead of SS allows me the super premium defence, which hasn’t delivered in GW1 or 2 but over a season it should be good. Would be good to get 8-900 from the back.

[Stu255]

OK, I am beginning to deviate from all the WC templates I have seen recently. But they all seem very rushed to me and making very long term structural decisions with very little data that is full of anomalous performances.

I still fully believe in the City and Liverpool defence over the long term and that paid off today. I think the top two are miles ahead of the rest.

Planning to stick with the 5 premiums are the back with 4 from the top two, rather than WC my team in a collection of anomalous early hattrick scorers and casuals bandwagons.

It feels embarrassing to go down this route, but I think it’s just much more objective. It’s the tortoise to the hare.


Currently have...

Pickford
Azpil, VVD, Robertson, Laporte, Zinch
Mount, Salah, KDB, Schneiderlin (Doulas Luiz)
Kane (Greenwood, Wickham)
1.8itb

Was planing to go Pickford to Lloris, but with Laporte now injured I was thinking of swapping Laporte for Digne and then Kane Aguero.

But whilst Kane can frustrate with 2’s he is still Harry Kane and a fit Kane is a consistent 220pts player. Kane and Aguero are equivalent and Kane is a capt alternative to Salah (Pool) and KDB (City)... I think KDB is playing Messi level football at the moment, but that another thread.

So now thinking swap Laporte to Walker and Wickham to Barnes. Then drop Schneiderlin and switch from 5-4-1 to 5-3-2.

This looks much more promising in terms of grinding out 60 pts each week. Rather than flip flopping from 45 to 72 each week.