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Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

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hancockjr
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by hancockjr »

SirMattBugsby wrote: 04 Sep 2019, 18:48 You don't think Son has higher ceiling than KdB? He's more likely to score goals and 15-pointers imo.. and in away games, he's the one who'll lead Spurs counter-attacks.

KdB for consistency, Son for explosiveness.
No player has a ceiling, it's just a figment of imagination.

If you think otherwise, then what are Son's and KDB's ceilings?

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Turd Ferguson »

Son has higher variance. He's more likely to get you 10+ points in a given game, whereas KdB will have a lot of games where he gets an assist and maybe some bonus. I expect KdB to outscore Son over the course of the season, but Son is more likely to give you hauls over a short run of easy fixtures. Arguably that makes Son better for FPL purposes, because neither of them will likely provide value if you hold them for the season without captaining them.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by SirMattBugsby »

hancockjr wrote:
SirMattBugsby wrote: 04 Sep 2019, 18:48 You don't think Son has higher ceiling than KdB? He's more likely to score goals and 15-pointers imo.. and in away games, he's the one who'll lead Spurs counter-attacks.

KdB for consistency, Son for explosiveness.
No player has a ceiling, it's just a figment of imagination.

If you think otherwise, then what are Son's and KDB's ceilings?
Over the next 5 fixtures, 15 and 10?

I realise that 'ceiling' is an intuitive idea more than a stat-based prediction but don't think it's totally fantastical.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Stemania »

I think it is perfectly reasonable to assume the two players' scores are likely to have different variances due to the differing way in which they accrue points - e.g., KDB is likely to have more total goal contributions than Son via a high number assists and fewer goals, but each of Son's contributions are likely to be worth more points (via a higher percentage of goals).

But that's a very different thing to being more likely to do better in easier fixtures - that's something that doesn't follow from having different variance and I don't recall there being any independent evidence for it. If picking someone over a period of 5 games (easy or hard or a mix) it's irrelevant as to whether they randomly score 5,5,5,5,5 or randomly score 2, 8, 2, 2, 11. In each case they will have the same expected points, with or without captaincy. The only difference in picking the second player would be an increase in variance in your total score (and captaincy scores), without actually changing your expected total.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Turd Ferguson »

Pts per Opposition.JPG
Patrician posted this a while back and I kept it for reference. Do you believe your lying eyes? Son looks like he scored slightly worse than his average against weak opposition last year. It's small sample sizes here: only one season of data split into 6 buckets, and the trend is for most players to score better against weak opposition, so perhaps Son is just a fluke. There's no evidence here that he kills it in easy fixtures though.

There's another question of momentum, or lumpiness (autocorrelation in math terms). Are there players who score in bursts regardless of fixture? Son seems to be one of those players but I'm definitely not going to spend the time looking for evidence of it, so I'll bow out of the debate.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Zimmerman »

Momentum doesn’t exist (does it)?

As you say, it’s a small sample size and one bumper score could skew the stats. Lots of other variables at play to assume any sort of trend.

I’m much more inclined to stick to the premise that home games against weak opposition will yield most points (which is more apparent when considering all players and performances).

The only angle is that rubbish teams are content to sit in and defend their 18yd box when playing at WHL which might restrict potential. But how/when do we decide who the rubbish teams are? What is the form of their respective teams etc etc.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Stemania »

There's been a mix of statistical evidence against and for the "hot hands" theory, but that doesn't necessarily help here. What there isn't evidence for (as far as I know) is that some players benefit from 'form streaks' while some other players don't. I.e, that "player x is a streaky player but player y isn't".

So, even if we do put our eggs in the hot hands 'momentum' basket, that doesn't mean Son is any more likely to benefit from the phenomenon than KDB, for example. :)

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Zimmerman »

Yep, we’re very adept at seeing patterns that don’t actually exist.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Turd Ferguson »

Momentum is essentially form, in football terms. I think most people would argue that form exists. Players seem to have stretches where they have more confidence and energy than usual.

In data terms, you'd be testing if a player's previous week score helps predict this week's score. If they average 4 a week, do they average less than 4 following a 2 pointer? Do they average more than 4 following a haul? There's pretty straightforward statistical tests out there. I'm too lazy to dig up the data and run the analysis. The really interesting thing would be to do it on individual players to see if there's players with huge momentum factors, who almost always follow up a goal with three or four weeks of good scores.

I would venture that most players have slightly negative momentum from one week to the next. A lot of 2 pointers are due to a tough fixture and a lot of hauls are due to easy fixtures at home. You're likely to have the opposite fixture in the following week, since fixtures tend to alternate between home and away, and if you just played a top 6/relegation contender, odds are that your next game won't be against the same caliber opposition. There's a natural seesaw effect due to fixtures.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Zimmerman »

I don’t believe it exists.

It’s virtually impossible to measure and even harder to eradicate other factors or circumstantial evidence.

Lots of studies have been done and I’m not sure any have managed to find a case for it (American sports predominantly studied).

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Kaiser00 »

Would you say the top 6 excluding top 2 might not rack up as much FPL points against the bottom 6 compared to last year. I think the defences of SU, AV, etc are better than Huddersfield, Cardiff etc.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Zimmerman »

I’d say the bottom six will be roughly the same.
Who knows if AV and SU will be in the bottom six though.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Zimmerman »

Although looks like last year was a bit extreme;

419 conceded

348, 395, 388 and 350 the previous conceded goals

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Finisher1 »

Turd Ferguson wrote: 05 Sep 2019, 19:09 I think most people would argue that form exists.
I think most elite managers would argue that form (defined as a player's previous week score) is a non-factor.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by baganboy »

Quick question:

Everything else being the same, who would you go for?
A) Pukki + Maddison
B) Son + Ayew?

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Zimmerman »

A

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Neath boy »

A.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by SirMattBugsby »

baganboy wrote: 06 Sep 2019, 11:41 Quick question:

Everything else being the same, who would you go for?
A) Pukki + Maddison
B) Son + Ayew?
It's not as clear-cut as I first thought, partly due to fixtures. Over the next 2, both Pukki and Maddison could blank twice. Moreover, Wolves will be playing Palace away after EL. Ayew then has (NOR), (whu) in GW 7 and 8.

I'll go with B. Then again, my faith in Son borders on irrational :)

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Smurphy Paw »

baganboy wrote: 06 Sep 2019, 11:41 Quick question:

Everything else being the same, who would you go for?
A) Pukki + Maddison
B) Son + Ayew?
Would you be playing zero, 1 or 2 of them each week?

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Stemania »

Ayew is very interesting imo. I can see myself strongly considering him soon in the relentless search for top notch cheapies. One option for me in getting back Martial is (VVD, Mount, GW) to (Otamendi, Martial, Ayew). It looks funny going from 2 starters to 3, but at the moment I'm effectively playing 10 + Lundstram.

Tough fixtures for Leicester & arguably Norwich in the next few gameweeks, so I sortof expect B to do better in the short term actually, but I think I'd also still go A for the mid to long term. :)

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Sutter Kane »

Stemania wrote: 06 Sep 2019, 13:13 Ayew is very interesting imo. I can see myself strongly considering him soon in the relentless search for top notch cheapies. One option for me in getting back Martial is (VVD, Mount, GW) to (Otamendi, Martial, Ayew). It looks funny going from 2 starters to 3, but at the moment I'm effectively playing 10 + Lundstram.

Tough fixtures for Leicester & arguably Norwich in the next few gameweeks, so I sortof expect B to do better in the short term actually, but I think I'd also still go A for the mid to long term. :)
What about TAA? Do you not see him as somebody who could become close to essential - his price will go up? Presume you'd wait until Chelsea game anyway.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Stemania »

My vague plan is to wait till GW13 for him tbh.

Owning just one Liverpool defender looks fine to me for the run from GW6 (che, shu, LEI, mun, TOT, avl, MCI), and I don't think a hit for Robertson would be worthwhile seeing as those fixtures contain many of the type TAA could be tactically replaced for (e.g. Chelsea in the Super Cup). After that I'll be all over TAA I expect.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Sutter Kane »

Yeah I do agree with the Liverpool fixtures being tough. (hence I've gone without Salah :shock: ) Whilst I don't think Salah's price will shoot up too rapidly because he has to do so much more to justify his price, TAA is so attacking his price could rocket with another destruction of Robertson as people jump from one to the other. Interesting that even though Liverpool have a reasonable 3 of the next 4, you are not that worried about his price going astro! In fact it's happening already; the NTI / NTO differences for Trent/Robbo are stark. I own Robertson too so could do with a reversal soon! Maybe I'm worrying too much about one of the secondary factors of this game...

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Sutter Kane »

TAA also created 2 less chances than KBD apparently, who many consider essential!

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Stemania »

Yeah, he's great. :)

I don't see his price soaring too much though. He's caught the eye this year already, but is yet to rise. He's surely not going to keep outscoring Robertson at nearly the same rate.

When I do get him (which I assume I will eventually), it would most likely be alongside Robbo rather than instead of, so Robbo's losing a few 0.1ms is pretty irrelevant in that respect.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Finisher1 »

I think TAA is superior to Robertson.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Hopping from Robertson to TAA was one of the moves I made whilst wildcarding. Without the wildcard it would have been a very welcome but unlikely scenario where that sideways move was the highest priority.

Stem, as well as the fixture runs presumably you’re waiting for Adrian to be bench warming again before playing the pair in tandem?

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by baganboy »

Thanks for your POVs guys. I have Maddison and Pukki (and Ayew) for 2 places in my team.
Have considered taking Pukki out for a 4.4, and uplifting Maddison to Son.

I am happy with my team - but folks like Son give me cause for fear.

As you mostly agree, I will stick with Maddison and Pukki for now - but we shall see in the long run.... I am happy I have a bit of flexibility for the long run.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by baganboy »

Even if TAA would have been a 7M midfielder, I would have preferred him over Maddison, who I indeed have in my team.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by baganboy »

I decided to spend the 0.5 extra on Ayew primarily because I have both Matip and Zinchenko, both of whom are minor rotation risks. (an also because I decided to move from 5-3-2 to 4-5-1 in my WC, and that facilitates a 4M defender, thus 0.5 spare).

Cannot say that I would never have the urge to upgrade Maddison (Martial say...), but am okay as of now.

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