Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Can one not see money in bank now or is it always like that at season start? I can't see my own 'cash in bank' until I click transfers.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Yeah I definitely think that some sort of standard three defenders, with a view on playing the fourth regularly is looking the way. Whether the fourth defender is a more traditional rotation spot, or a full priced 4th defender themselves I'm not sure on yet, but there will be some value in the 4.5 defender bracket to exploit I'm sure, so my default position is to use it.TheRumourMill wrote: ↑28 Jun 2019, 23:36 Was thinking about 4-4-2 before game was released so pleased to see I can make it work. The prices for Laporte, and the Liverpool defenders are superb. Digne very creative and superb fixtures to start.
Digne is one that I think I'm missing something with not being in the game much last season. I agree on the Everton resurgence and fixtures, but Coleman is cheaper, with better creative and goal threat stats, and is just as secure to start? What am I missing from not seeing much of Digne on MoTD or following closely last year?
With Kane, my initial reaction has been thank you very much FPL gods. I know he had injury issues last year but comparing his stats from the last two seasons is a bit of a concern actually:TheRumourMill wrote: ↑28 Jun 2019, 23:36 I think the Kane cut has turned people's heads but I'm not convinced we will ever see the Kane of 2016-17 ever again. I suspect injuries have taken their toll on him. And Aubameyang appears to be a rotation risk.
Whether it's a bit of blip or a style change under Poch is the question I guess. It's actually looking then that the Kane thing is my first big structural question this pre-season.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Bollocks... I was dead set on having him... does look a bit disconcerting. Early on in the season there was a formation/system change wasn’t there (Moura was accommodated and Kane seemingly played a bit further back)? Was that imagined?
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Yeah I agree with you on the defence, you could go with rotating 4.5m 4th and 5th defenders for sure. I've not ruled it out myself either, will depend how teams look in pre season to an extent. Especially with most keepers 5.0m, the 4.5 defenders now get you into some ok defensive sides for half a million cheaper. Could be handy.Mav3rick wrote: ↑29 Jun 2019, 08:59Yeah I definitely think that some sort of standard three defenders, with a view on playing the fourth regularly is looking the way. Whether the fourth defender is a more traditional rotation spot, or a full priced 4th defender themselves I'm not sure on yet, but there will be some value in the 4.5 defender bracket to exploit I'm sure, so my default position is to use it.TheRumourMill wrote: ↑28 Jun 2019, 23:36 Was thinking about 4-4-2 before game was released so pleased to see I can make it work. The prices for Laporte, and the Liverpool defenders are superb. Digne very creative and superb fixtures to start.
Digne is one that I think I'm missing something with not being in the game much last season. I agree on the Everton resurgence and fixtures, but Coleman is cheaper, with better creative and goal threat stats, and is just as secure to start? What am I missing from not seeing much of Digne on MoTD or following closely last year?
With Kane, my initial reaction has been thank you very much FPL gods. I know he had injury issues last year but comparing his stats from the last two seasons is a bit of a concern actually:TheRumourMill wrote: ↑28 Jun 2019, 23:36 I think the Kane cut has turned people's heads but I'm not convinced we will ever see the Kane of 2016-17 ever again. I suspect injuries have taken their toll on him. And Aubameyang appears to be a rotation risk.
Whether it's a bit of blip or a style change under Poch is the question I guess. It's actually looking then that the Kane thing is my first big structural question this pre-season.
The reason I chose Digne was because he is on a number of free kicks and corners as well as having an open play threat, has better delivery than Coleman in open play, and is also a bit of a bps monster. He undershot his expected assists by 3 last season too so there's a bit more potential in there than he has already shown too. Also has a huge long throw! Coleman last year had an expected goals per 90 of 0.05 and expected assist per 90 of 0.13. Digne was 0.04 and 0.23.
The guys at statsbomb ran some interesting analysis on Kane at points throughout last season. Which corroborate well with the stats you've posted. To summarise, he's no longer shooting on sight having large shot volumes, not getting into the box as much. He's dropping a lot deeper to link attacks too, with players like moura and son running in behind to finish the chances off. He's become a bit more of a Wilson or firmino or jiminez level striker in my opinion in terms of stats, still good of course and still capable of explosive hauls against poor sides, but I don't think we will see a guy who is going to make the leap to lewandowski levels of output like it looked like was likely at one point. Additionally, if eriksen leaves,surely Kane feels the need to be creative even more than he did last season??
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
It doesn't look imagined. I guess the question will be if its permanent or if Kane moves forward again. I'll have a look at similar stats for Eriksen and Alli soon to see what their positions look like year-on-year.
On Foden, he's just a watchlist at this stage. He's got to break through eventually, but I don't think I'd seriously even consider him unless I thought he'd get similar minutes to Mahrez did (around 1300, or hopefully more). Taking Mahrez as the comparison, he scored just over 100 points from his 1300 minutes so, Foden over similar minutes would maybe be expected to get a bit more, perhaps 110-120 which is hopefully the low end of the estimate, but would be greatly influenced by actual minutes played.Zimmerman wrote: ↑29 Jun 2019, 08:08 Interesting Foden over Gundogan at the same price point?
Gundogan obviously benefitted from de Bruyne's absences - but he does appear to be Peps go to backup man.
De Bruyne has missed lots of football and ‘could’ yet struggle with a few niggles - maybe the full summer off and then a full pre-season sets him up. Fernandinho starting to get a few more injuries too (and a bit older). So I still think Gundogan offers some value (and less risk than Foden).
Do we think Foden starts getting more minutes (as he starts to grow... and to prepare him to step in to Silvas role after this season?
In honesty, I'll bottle it and won't pick him because I can't quite see Foden getting 1300 minutes centrally with KDB the two Silvas and Gundog around.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
See this is interesting. I split the stats up into first half and second half of the season, since Everton were significantly better in the second half of last season (30.28 expected points in 5th place vs 25.26 expected points in 11th). I'm guilty of cherry picking of course but in the second half of the season Coleman beats Digne on both xG and xA. Maybe the turn up in fortunes are linked?TheRumourMill wrote: ↑29 Jun 2019, 09:24 The reason I chose Digne was because he is on a number of free kicks and corners as well as having an open play threat, has better delivery than Coleman in open play, and is also a bit of a bps monster. He undershot his expected assists by 3 last season too so there's a bit more potential in there than he has already shown too. Also has a huge long throw! Coleman last year had an expected goals per 90 of 0.05 and expected assist per 90 of 0.13. Digne was 0.04 and 0.23.
Great stuff thanks. You'd assume that if Eriksen leaves they'd buy someone, but yes I know what you mean. I think with Kane I just need to think about switching him out for a midfielder and replacing with a different striker setup.TheRumourMill wrote: ↑29 Jun 2019, 09:24 The guys at statsbomb ran some interesting analysis on Kane at points throughout last season. Which corroborate well with the stats you've posted. To summarise, he's no longer shooting on sight having large shot volumes, not getting into the box as much. He's dropping a lot deeper to link attacks too, with players like moura and son running in behind to finish the chances off. He's become a bit more of a Wilson or firmino or jiminez level striker in my opinion in terms of stats, still good of course and still capable of explosive hauls against poor sides, but I don't think we will see a guy who is going to make the leap to lewandowski levels of output like it looked like was likely at one point. Additionally, if eriksen leaves,surely Kane feels the need to be creative even more than he did last season??
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Are there any stats for Kane for H1 v H2
My gut instinct is that spurs moved away from that formation (possibly when Alli became available)?
My gut instinct is that spurs moved away from that formation (possibly when Alli became available)?
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
The issue is that Harry Kane likes to think of himself as a No 10, not a No 9. The likes of Son and especially Moura pushing forward hungry to score allows Kane to drop deeper. When Moura plays Kane is much less effective, its not quite as noticable with Son. Remember when Vincent Janssen joined? Kane full on dropped back into CAM in the centre of the 3 behind the striker in a 4231.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Has anyone thought about the Liverpool triple up in defence? And sacrificing Salah for Sterling or Agueo or Kane.
Last season, Roberston had 213 pts, hes 7mill, TAA 185pts at 7mill (Via injuries) and VVD 208 pts at 6.5 mill. Its questionable whether they would have those returns again. While captain comes into play as well. Salah got 259.
But i suppose its a question worth asking is it better value investing 20 mill in three Liverpool spots at the back and having another super premium from elsewhere or Salah and one Liverpool defender for more or less the same budget.
Say having three Liverpool at the back and concentrate on the likes of Sterling, Kane, Aguero and other super premiums given there could possibly be another high ceilings point wise at the back for Liverpool.
Last season, Roberston had 213 pts, hes 7mill, TAA 185pts at 7mill (Via injuries) and VVD 208 pts at 6.5 mill. Its questionable whether they would have those returns again. While captain comes into play as well. Salah got 259.
But i suppose its a question worth asking is it better value investing 20 mill in three Liverpool spots at the back and having another super premium from elsewhere or Salah and one Liverpool defender for more or less the same budget.
Say having three Liverpool at the back and concentrate on the likes of Sterling, Kane, Aguero and other super premiums given there could possibly be another high ceilings point wise at the back for Liverpool.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Big fan of this approach - medium potential risk / high potential rewardThe Username wrote: ↑29 Jun 2019, 10:37 Has anyone thought about the Liverpool triple up in defence?
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Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Or a big six set and forget at the back ?
...that’s where I am currently
...that’s where I am currently
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Liverpool will batter some teams with poor defences. A lot of the time, you would captain Sterling over a Liverpool defender (if not all the time) - so Salah/Mane get 15 doubled to 30 for owners in those particular games. It's an option removed if you don't have Liverpool attack vs some awful defences. However, if you're looking to go without Sterling or Aguero for a bulk of this season then I feel that instead having 3 Liv defenders and making sure you have Sterling/Aguero is more important.
I think most people are looking at Salah and Sterling not Salah or Sterling because of the captaincy risks. When I wildcard, I'd be surprised if I don't have both but of course bargains can arise that are difficult to refuse which can change things.
I think most people are looking at Salah and Sterling not Salah or Sterling because of the captaincy risks. When I wildcard, I'd be surprised if I don't have both but of course bargains can arise that are difficult to refuse which can change things.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
First draft
I have to give it to FPL towers, they've really forced compromise this time. I feel a bit sick at the thought of no Aguero.
I have to give it to FPL towers, they've really forced compromise this time. I feel a bit sick at the thought of no Aguero.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Yep, they really have forced compromise, which is great imo.
It definitely feels a bit of a perfect storm for a 3atb to me; not just the underpriced premium defs, the lack of decent cheap mids/atts, and the ever-deteriorating striker pool, but the cheap defenders look quite poor to me too!
A stark looking 4m defender situation, and a very thin feeling set of 4.5m defs. I reckon Cathcart, Diop, or perhaps a Burnley double up on Taylor, are just about the only sub-5m defenders I'm vaguely interested in right now (in our post-Rafa world). Eek.
It definitely feels a bit of a perfect storm for a 3atb to me; not just the underpriced premium defs, the lack of decent cheap mids/atts, and the ever-deteriorating striker pool, but the cheap defenders look quite poor to me too!
A stark looking 4m defender situation, and a very thin feeling set of 4.5m defs. I reckon Cathcart, Diop, or perhaps a Burnley double up on Taylor, are just about the only sub-5m defenders I'm vaguely interested in right now (in our post-Rafa world). Eek.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Also one thing to keep in mind regarding Kane is the price change thing. If I recall it right Mav3rick, in season 2015-16 you ended up having lots of toxic players dropping in price in the early season, right? So regarding Kane, I think he is odds-on to drop in price if he blanks in GW1, because he then has City away in GW2. Even if he scores one goal in GW1 he might still drop if some other striker scores a haul.Finisher1 wrote: ↑28 Jun 2019, 17:44Over the season he is probably good value but his terrible GW2 fixture puts me off at the moment. True, his GW1 fixture is delicious and he is even a captain contender that gameweek, but personally I'd still captain Salah so it kind of decreases Kane's value for me.
Plus I think Kane is unlikely to rise even if he scores a haul in GW1, because it's likely that some other striker also scores a haul in GW1, but has a much better GW2 fixture than Kane.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Matt Targett might have improved that situation a bit with a move to Villa. Yoshida finished the season under Hasenhuttl and is also a goal threat for 4.5, if they don't sign anyone new there so I wouldn't write off the 4.5 defenders just yet.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
I don't think I'll worry that much about potential price drops as its so dependent on what happens and isn't really a controllable thing. You're right I did suffer from the toxic players, but that was more because I'd picked too many riskier punt players who all failed and then had a couple of guys like Alli that also started dropping due to other premiums doing better.Finisher1 wrote: ↑29 Jun 2019, 15:15 Also one thing to keep in mind regarding Kane is the price change thing. If I recall it right Mav3rick, in season 2015-16 you ended up having lots of toxic players dropping in price in the early season, right? So regarding Kane, I think he is odds-on to drop in price if he blanks in GW1, because he then has City away in GW2. Even if he scores one goal in GW1 he might still drop if some other striker scores a haul.
Plus I think Kane is unlikely to rise even if he scores a haul in GW1, because it's likely that some other striker also scores a haul in GW1, but has a much better GW2 fixture than Kane.
It can happen to any selection though, the key I think to avoid that is keeping the Walcott Number down (the number of riskier players with a bias of active manager ownership in pre-season). I will hope to have a Walcott number of no more that 1 at the start of this season.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
At the moment I am happy with my keepers, sort of okay with my defence and attack but my midfield is rubbish. If I improve my midfield then somewhere else becomes rubbish. Am I doomed to inevitably have one rubbish section of my team or should I go for overall mediocrity?
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
After an afternoon of tinkering, I've started to settle on two possible structures, one with Kane (as a traditional second super premium) and one without. The first one looks like this:
The Kaney West
4.5, 4.0
7.0, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, 4.0
12.5, 9.5, 6.5, 4.5, 4.5
11.0, 8.0, 6.5
I've been back and forward on the 11.0 striker a few times. I think there's more value in the likes of Vardy but for a second super premium I'm more tempted by the balance a Kane/Auba offers compared to a Sterling in midfield. Obviously I'll be keeping an eye on pre-season games, transfers and will likely end up back and forth on the super premium striker issue until the GW1 deadline.
The alternative where I ditch Kane completely and go 80% bulgarche is below, I've not ruled that out yet and I do like the look of the team value on paper. Its only two moves from a super premium setup so I don't feel backed into a corner, and I would be happy to just perma captain Salah with KDB to step in on occasion. This is the no-super premium striker setup, and as I say, I prefer this from a value standpoint:
The Kardashian West
4.5, 4.0
7.0, 7.0, 6.5, 6.0, 4.0
12.5, 9.5, 6.5, 4.5, 4.5
9.0, 8.0, 6.5
As a side note, Mane was very close and was in a few drafts (at the 11.0 striker's expense) and could be back in in later revisions.
The Kaney West
4.5, 4.0
7.0, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, 4.0
12.5, 9.5, 6.5, 4.5, 4.5
11.0, 8.0, 6.5
I've been back and forward on the 11.0 striker a few times. I think there's more value in the likes of Vardy but for a second super premium I'm more tempted by the balance a Kane/Auba offers compared to a Sterling in midfield. Obviously I'll be keeping an eye on pre-season games, transfers and will likely end up back and forth on the super premium striker issue until the GW1 deadline.
The alternative where I ditch Kane completely and go 80% bulgarche is below, I've not ruled that out yet and I do like the look of the team value on paper. Its only two moves from a super premium setup so I don't feel backed into a corner, and I would be happy to just perma captain Salah with KDB to step in on occasion. This is the no-super premium striker setup, and as I say, I prefer this from a value standpoint:
The Kardashian West
4.5, 4.0
7.0, 7.0, 6.5, 6.0, 4.0
12.5, 9.5, 6.5, 4.5, 4.5
9.0, 8.0, 6.5
As a side note, Mane was very close and was in a few drafts (at the 11.0 striker's expense) and could be back in in later revisions.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
I am currently:
5.0 - 4.5
7.0 - 5.5 - 5.5 - 5.5 - 4.0
12.5 - 8.0 - 7.0 - 6.5 - 4.5
11.0 - 7.5 - 6.0
When it's just numbers it looks like a more even spread than I had realised.
5.0 - 4.5
7.0 - 5.5 - 5.5 - 5.5 - 4.0
12.5 - 8.0 - 7.0 - 6.5 - 4.5
11.0 - 7.5 - 6.0
When it's just numbers it looks like a more even spread than I had realised.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Currently on
4.5 / 4
7 / 5.5 / 5.5 / 5.5 / 4.5
12.5 / 12 / 8 / 4.5 / 4.5
9 / 6.5 / 6
It’s the 12 and 9 pivot that’s giving me the most food for thought... I have 0.5 itb as that started as de Bruyn and Aguero. Could be Kane. Or Sterling Vardy. Lots to think about.
4.5 / 4
7 / 5.5 / 5.5 / 5.5 / 4.5
12.5 / 12 / 8 / 4.5 / 4.5
9 / 6.5 / 6
It’s the 12 and 9 pivot that’s giving me the most food for thought... I have 0.5 itb as that started as de Bruyn and Aguero. Could be Kane. Or Sterling Vardy. Lots to think about.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
I like Gomez and Coleman, obvious worry with Gomez is the gametime risk, but I do reckon he will be first choice partner for VVD. 5.5 is a decent value for the clean sheet points, but I expect BPs to be hoovered up by other players, so I think he'll be value with enough games, but not a game changer in FPL.Spinynorman wrote: ↑29 Jun 2019, 22:31Coleman, Gomez and Stones. I have tinkered with Laporte (if you pardon the expression) so it could change.
It is interesting though seeing them as numbers rather than names even if the devil is in the detail.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
I can see why you've got the 3x 5.5 defenders (to enable Sterling) but I worry that's a false economy. The super premium defenders are the big points scorers and 3x5.5 is going to be draining the quality in that bracket too much, without the payout from the 6.5+ defenders I think. I reckon its better to commit to a rotation and go 6.5, 5.5, 4.5x2 across the backline with that budget, its the price of Sterling in my drafts too - using a rotation spot for the 11th starter.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
I think Seamus is underpriced if he starts like H2 last season, so it’s Gomez and Stones that are the bigger doubts for me. That could be VVD and Duffy, but then I miss City clean sheets. It could be Laporte and Duffy, but then I drop a Liverpool defender. Have to work out what the priority is. Maguire to City would help.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
4.5 def to 4 gives me that 5.5 to 6.5 option though, so Stones to Laporte.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Ah ok! I wasn't aware of that, fascinating stuff, thank you maybe once Coleman was over his leg break and back to full fitness his confidence and output shot up?Mav3rick wrote: ↑29 Jun 2019, 09:36See this is interesting. I split the stats up into first half and second half of the season, since Everton were significantly better in the second half of last season (30.28 expected points in 5th place vs 25.26 expected points in 11th). I'm guilty of cherry picking of course but in the second half of the season Coleman beats Digne on both xG and xA. Maybe the turn up in fortunes are linked?TheRumourMill wrote: ↑29 Jun 2019, 09:24 The reason I chose Digne was because he is on a number of free kicks and corners as well as having an open play threat, has better delivery than Coleman in open play, and is also a bit of a bps monster. He undershot his expected assists by 3 last season too so there's a bit more potential in there than he has already shown too. Also has a huge long throw! Coleman last year had an expected goals per 90 of 0.05 and expected assist per 90 of 0.13. Digne was 0.04 and 0.23.
Great stuff thanks. You'd assume that if Eriksen leaves they'd buy someone, but yes I know what you mean. I think with Kane I just need to think about switching him out for a midfielder and replacing with a different striker setup.TheRumourMill wrote: ↑29 Jun 2019, 09:24 The guys at statsbomb ran some interesting analysis on Kane at points throughout last season. Which corroborate well with the stats you've posted. To summarise, he's no longer shooting on sight having large shot volumes, not getting into the box as much. He's dropping a lot deeper to link attacks too, with players like moura and son running in behind to finish the chances off. He's become a bit more of a Wilson or firmino or jiminez level striker in my opinion in terms of stats, still good of course and still capable of explosive hauls against poor sides, but I don't think we will see a guy who is going to make the leap to lewandowski levels of output like it looked like was likely at one point. Additionally, if eriksen leaves,surely Kane feels the need to be creative even more than he did last season??
Yeah with Kane it's an easy swap to a premium mid instead, who seem to be the players who score the most these days!
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
I can't help looking at a KDB team (so all of my drafts so far and many of the above) and find myself uneasily wanting to scrabble for Sterling. A second 'proper' captain who dovetails pretty well with Salah, and a player who is a little more of a sure thing at this stage than KBD.
It's such a stretch financially though, and certainly precludes Kane, probably Vardy/Rashford too.
There seems a large proportion of managers looking at 6-7m strikers, and that's a big sticking point for me as I find them all pretty horrible (aside from maybe Arnie at a real stretch), certainly compared to the likes of Zaha and Maddison.
And that makes Sterling tougher. The best I could do relies on a reliable 5.5m City defender emerging (hmmm...Stones or Maguire).
4.5, 4.0
7m, 6.5, 5.5 City, 2*4.5 rotators
Salah,Sterling, Siggy, Zaha
Wilson, Arnie
Arguably, a 451 with Maddison is comparable, but loses the playing sub (currently Dendonker for me atm).
Am I too gloomy on the sub-7m strikers? Assuming Pukki doesn't lead Finisher1 to the FPL title that is. ;p
It's such a stretch financially though, and certainly precludes Kane, probably Vardy/Rashford too.
There seems a large proportion of managers looking at 6-7m strikers, and that's a big sticking point for me as I find them all pretty horrible (aside from maybe Arnie at a real stretch), certainly compared to the likes of Zaha and Maddison.
And that makes Sterling tougher. The best I could do relies on a reliable 5.5m City defender emerging (hmmm...Stones or Maguire).
4.5, 4.0
7m, 6.5, 5.5 City, 2*4.5 rotators
Salah,Sterling, Siggy, Zaha
Wilson, Arnie
Arguably, a 451 with Maddison is comparable, but loses the playing sub (currently Dendonker for me atm).
Am I too gloomy on the sub-7m strikers? Assuming Pukki doesn't lead Finisher1 to the FPL title that is. ;p
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