Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

[Stemania]

The game is on! Roll up, roll up! All are welcome to join in this free-for-all shared-RMT thread, for any spillage outside of personal RMT threads (and conventionally a stats-based focus).

The muscles may still be full of acid, last season seems barely to have passed our lips, but we must push forward! So long has it been since the days Sammy The Crab formally hosted this geeky discussion (in the form of his own RMT) that, in the words of Bob Mortimer, our memories of the eponymous co-founder are fading like fingerprints on an abandoned handrail. Yet still he owns nominal reins of this meandering geeky stats-based group-thinking thread. And what of us, the loyal drones? We must simply press on, marching all together, in eerie silence.



"But, what has this ghost ship of a thread become?" comes a murmur from the gloom. "Didn't it used to be really useful?" comes another. "And wasn't this called 'Statistical Thought Cave', or 'Splendiferous Tactical Conversation', or 'Strategic Thinking Cavern', or something?" emanates a third voice out of the darkness in a rather sarcastic tone.

Well, yes, I'll have you know that synonyms are thin on the ground these days, and besides, the STC is the thread FISO deserves, but not the one it needs right now, so we'll hunt it. Because it can take it, because it's not a hero. It's a silent guardian, a watchful protector, a Dark....er...look what you've made me do, I'm plagiarising. Frankly, you hecklers are ruining the moody atmosphere of this really weird opening post, so pipe down.

And we trudge on, after 734 pages in a six year period that has felt like a century. A stat here, an xG there. Dragging our previous actions as chains about our feet: 2018/19, 2017/18, 2016/17, 2015/16, 2014/15, 2013/14.

But wait, look there! What's that? Through the murky backdrop, could that be a beacon shining in the distance? It can't be!? It is! It's....it's....he's back! Mav3rick is back!

We're saved!!!!

Welcome all. Thought I best get this up and running again. I've transferred the ever-growing STC Bookshelf, feel free to suggest any recommendations for links/additions/improvements to the catalogue. And get RMT-ing!!

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The STC Bookshelf


Key Texts:
Fpldiscovery - Invaluable weekly player ownership/average scores data etc (Currently dead )
Fplstatistics - Historically most reliable price change site, no registration
FantasyFootballFix - Alternative price change site, registration required
Understat - Comprehensive xG database
Fbref - Free source of statsbomb's golddust xG data
Ben Crellin's Spreadsheet - Legendary DGW information source
FPL Statistico - Individual FPL team analyser
Live FPL - Live gameweek rank calculator, plus other goodies (Best alternative to FPLD?)
FantasyFootballScout - No introduction required


Main Catalogue:
Squawka - Stats resource and comparison matrix
MathematicallySafe - Peter Blake's FPL statistical analysis blog
WhoGotTheAssist - User-friendly blog posts on psychology and probability in FPL
PLFantasy - Statistical blog by Chris Glover
MackayAnalytics - Blog specializing in xG comparison
Statsbomb - Legendary stats articles, specialists in xG
Differentgame - Paul Riley's blog on xG analysis
Eighty Five Points - Excellent blog by Laurie Shaw
FPLAcademica - FPL blog by four 'twitter enthusiasts'
FantasyFutopia - Blog by our own Tom Whelan (notably containing a great guide to Python in FPL)
Paul Riley, Mike Croom & Tim Bayer - Data resource tableaux (including fixture tracker)
Transfermarkt & Football-Lineups - Detailed player/team statistics, penalty/injury records, formations etc
Worldfootball & Soccerstats - Historical PL info
Myfootballfacts - Historic team penalty information (seems to have stopped updating)
PremierFantasyTools - FPL tool site, inc alternative HoF
FPL Analytics - FPL analysis site
FPL Review - Points projection site based on understat xModel, inc "luck" quantifier
Teamfill - Customisable team optimiser site by our own Sneakyone
Vaastav's Github - Detailed historical FPL data (including weekly scores)
Football-data - Historic bookies odds for the PL
FPL Reddit - What it says on the tin


Audiobooks:
TBA - FPL podcasts of note


Online Collection:
https://twitter.com/11tegen11?ref_src=t ... r%5Eauthor - 11tegen11
https://twitter.com/FPLSecrets - FPL Secrets
https://twitter.com/Lucid_Analytics - Lucid Analytics


Defunct ancient texts:
The3rdTurd's data - Old resource tableaux
http://11tegen11.net/
http://www.shotsontarget.co.uk/
DeepxG - Blog flirting with xG (you have to dig deep for relevant articles)
FPL Archives - FPL data from selected previous seasons, now dead

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The STC Workshop


Working Prototypes from 18/19:
Understat Extrapolations - Mav3rick's Solver algorithm for picking the best squad based on projections
FFS Extrapolations - Stemania's modification of the above for picking the best squad based on FFS projections (inc 6-week)
Defensive rotation sheet - FranckKessie's rotation planner
FPLAnalysis - FranckKessie's FPL data sheet

[Finisher1]

Good evening everyone.

[Stemania]

My first draft was a really weird one. Found myself with a very stretched 442, relying on 2-from-3 def rotation (albeit one that I would hope a Maguire/Diop high profile transfer could turn into a 3 plus 1-from-2). Salah, KDB, Siggy, Zaha across the middle (with jealous eyes on Maddison/Dilva) and a fixture-based sketch of Wilson/Kane up top till the wildcard, neither of which I love.

Really strange feel to the pricing structure this year. Am genuinely struggling to find any semblance of a useful outfield cheapie, but a long long way to go obviously.

[Aldershot Rejects]

My first draft was a really weird one. Found myself with a very stretched 442, relying on 2-from-3 def rotation (albeit one that I would hope a Maguire/Diop high profile transfer could turn into a 3 plus 1-from-2). Salah, KDB, Siggy, Zaha across the middle (with jealous eyes on Maddison/Dilva) and a fixture-based sketch of Wilson/Kane up top till the wildcard, neither of which I love.

Really strange feel to the pricing structure this year. Am genuinely struggling to find any semblance of a useful outfield cheapie, but a long long way to go obviously.

Agree re the pricing structure - may well go 4-3-3. First draft had Aguero, Vardy & Jota up front and no premium midfielder with Pogba, Siggy and Redmond starting and Jorginho (if he's on penalties) & 4.5m on the bench. Of course it will all change in the next month, but I suspect for me the choice will be 1 premium & 4 5.5m+ defenders or 2 premiums and 1/2 5.5m+ defenders.

[dod]

The pricing structure this season is very challenging (which I like ). I'm currently rocking a sexy little 5-3-2 formation but it will no doubt change many, many times before it all kicks off .

[Finisher1]

My first draft was a really weird one. Found myself with a very stretched 442, relying on 2-from-3 def rotation (albeit one that I would hope a Maguire/Diop high profile transfer could turn into a 3 plus 1-from-2). Salah, KDB, Siggy, Zaha across the middle (with jealous eyes on Maddison/Dilva) and a fixture-based sketch of Wilson/Kane up top till the wildcard, neither of which I love.

Really strange feel to the pricing structure this year. Am genuinely struggling to find any semblance of a useful outfield cheapie, but a long long way to go obviously.

It seems KDB is one of your favourite players just like Jones, you are always trying to squeeze him in

Personally I don't like KDB, he lies deep and always gets injured. I prefer Bilva and Sane (if he seems likely to start), and obviously Sterling if I can afford him.

[S_sutton87]

Pep said bilva was the first name on the team sheet last season will that change now that kdb is fit

Sent from my H8216 using Tapatalk

[Stemania]

It seems KDB is one of your favourite players just like Jones, you are always trying to squeeze him in

Personally I don't like KDB, he lies deep and always gets injured. I prefer Bilva and Sane (if he seems likely to start), and obviously Sterling if I can afford him.

Ha ha - he's got the FPL pedigree. He posted 209 and 199 points the two seasons before last, bossing bonus and assists, and was rarely injured. Last season was such an injury hit one that I don't think it really tells us much about his role/if it has changed since then.

<<Evidence-less potentially nonsensical waffley divel alert>>
My impression was that the fact he was out for so long meant Pep had to alter their system to account for not having a player of KDB's quality in the centre, and the solution to that from watching seemed to be to keep the less talented replacement slightly deeper and slightly less involved, with more play going through the wide forwards, I sortof agree. So when KDB did pop back in from time to time it could be that he slotted into a system not quite built around him. Now KDB is assumed to be fully fit I would hope Pep would move them back towards using KDB much more and allowing him to retain his involvement levels from the two circa 200 pointer seasons.
<<It's now safe to open your eyes again>>

An interesting comparison, maybe for just about everyone, is going to be (Sterling + x) vs (Aguero + y) vs (KDB + z). One reason my first draft led towards the third option was because the z could be Kane, whereas I was looking at a Rashford-type in the Sterling scenario. I think I do prefer Sterling to Aguero in isolation incidentally, but that's another conversation. Bernado I actually see as a very interesting player in his own right at 8m too, because KDB might keep him in the more advanced RW position.

Sane is a complete no go imo. As soon as KDB is fit I believe Sane is not in the team - that's what I'd say essentially happened last season for his infamous DGW25 fail, and beyond.

And...um...I did notice Phil Jones has come in at a juicy 5m.

[The Username]

Hope your enjoying the summer lads! The pricing structure has changed significantly. Stating the obvious I think rising value might be very important this season on what it might enable and how quickly it might be enabled. Early wildcard may be key. More so then previous seasons like.

Initial draft has me on

Heaton, Button

Digne, Mendy, Robertson, Bednek, Lowton

Salah, Gylfi, Brooks, Maddison

Rashford, Vardy, Jimenez

Jimenez, looks the softest spot to be moving funds around and adjusting structure with.

Maybe go a bit heavier in Midfield and defence. Maddison to KDB maybe, via downgrading Jimenez and the 4.5 defence rotation kicking in with a 442 as an option.

Leaves me with 5 mill for the third striker spot and an uninspiring Shane Long, maybe that can be improved on as the transfer window goes on.

I don’t think premium forwards really justified their price or return at the higher end last year, so content enough to start with middle valued forwards who could be value and push some money back into midfield and defence.

Interesting times structure wise.

Good to see everyone back and hopefully Sammy and Mav will be back this year as well.

[Neath boy]

Lots of value in the striking spot at the 6.5m price point. Not liking any really cheap strikers at the moment which for me currently rules out a 3-5-2/4-4-2 set up. Looks likely at the moment I will be going with 2 mid price striking options and maybe Vardy, rather than including one big hitter.

[Finisher1]

Initial draft has me on

Heaton, Button

Digne, Mendy, Robertson, Bednek, Lowton

Salah, Gylfi, Brooks, Maddison

Rashford, Vardy, Jimenez

Only 3/6 from City and Liverpool? Interesting, I will most likely have the full 6/6.

[The Username]

Initial draft has me on

Heaton, Button

Digne, Mendy, Robertson, Bednek, Lowton

Salah, Gylfi, Brooks, Maddison

Rashford, Vardy, Jimenez

Only 3/6 from City and Liverpool? Interesting, I will most likely have the full 6/6.

Struggling with that balance myself, fair play if you can come up with a content formula.

Digne and Mendy could morph into TAA or VVD and I could rotate 4.5s, but I expect Digne to improve his out put this year and like the diversity and value Mendy offers providing he plays to start with. I’m not sure two Liverpool and and a 4.5 would outscore the three I’ve picked either. I’ll be keeping an eye on Gomez though and that fourth Liverpool defensive spot.

Not inconceivable to add another City midfielder I just don’t feel confident picking the right one bar KDB and Sterling is a bit out of reach for me with the balance I’m trying to get to start with.

Not to pushed on Aguero either to be honest. I’m not sure that spread can’t be covered to start with anyway and there is the value argument of course. It’s Kane I would be keeping an eye on, but I’m not going to start with him, I have a gut feeling he usually takes a while to get up and going.

Long way to go mind, pre season, international tournaments still being played and a fair chunk of the transfer window still to go.

So I’m still very open minded.

[Stemania]

I soon moved out of Kane for the midprice forwards too. Obviously it's quite nonsensical to talk about strengths and weaknesses at this stage of the year as there is a million miles to go, but the big weakness of my first 'realistic' draft feels like a lack of Sterling/Aguero

Heaton, 4.0
Robertson, VVD, Laporte, (4.5/4.5 rotation)
Salah, KDB, Siggy, Zaha (4.5)
Rashford, Wilson (4.5)

The aim would be to not have Laporte, but instead have a Mendy/Maguire/Stones starting def if one becomes clear and/or transferred. And to possibly ship Wilson quite early after his awesome first two games. There's a few names in there that I currently feel far more confident in than memory suggests I would usually feel about any player at this point of preseason - the Liv trio, Heaton in particular.

If Lukaku moves to Italy (as rumoured) then Rashford really does become very appealing to me (as he'd presumably become perma-central-role with pens and some freekicks/corners). Obviously competing against Vardy, but still. Zaha could easily move too (Arsenal perhaps?) making him even more attractive. Siggy a bit of a lumpy 8m that doesn't feel quite right in that setup, and even with their strong start, if this system does persist I could see myself ending up preferring one of Dila or the cheaper Maddison/punt on a Chelsea guy, or a striker like Jimmy.

Have to say, I've played around for a while now and haven't come up with anything non-4atb that I liked enough to consider to be a 'draft'. Quite a nice shift from the norm.

[The Username]

I soon moved out of Kane for the midprice forwards too. Obviously it's quite nonsensical to talk about strengths and weaknesses at this stage of the year as there is a million miles to go, but the big weakness of my first 'realistic' draft feels like a lack of Sterling/Aguero

Heaton, 4.0
Robertson, VVD, Laporte, (4.5/4.5 rotation)
Salah, KDB, Siggy, Zaha (4.5)
Rashford, Wilson (4.5)


The aim would be to not have Laporte, but instead have a Mendy/Maguire/Stones starting def if one becomes clear and/or transferred. And to possibly ship Wilson quite early after his awesome first two games. There's a few names in there that I currently feel far more confident in than memory suggests I would usually feel about any player at this point of preseason - the Liv trio, Heaton in particular.

If Lukaku moves to Italy (as rumoured) then Rashford really does become very appealing to me (as he'd presumably become perma-central-role with pens and some freekicks/corners). Obviously competing against Vardy, but still. Zaha could easily move too (Arsenal perhaps?) making him even more attractive. Siggy a bit of a lumpy 8m that doesn't feel quite right in that setup, and even with their strong start, if this system does persist I could see myself ending up preferring one of Dila or the cheaper Maddison/punt on a Chelsea guy, or a striker like Jimmy.

Have to say, I've played around for a while now and haven't come up with anything non-4atb that I liked enough to consider to be a 'draft'. Quite a nice shift from the norm.

Keep coming back to 442 myself.

Sterling is the only one annoying me that I can’t squeeze in, it’s just to much budget and you can’t squeeze everyone in. I’m slightly balmed on that by KDB as his ceiling is huge all fit, while Salah is a nuclear transfer button that can be pressed at any time if Sterling comes roaring out of the traps. It feels better having KDB and Salah then Sterling and KDB.

On 4.5 mill strikers, I know there is a fair way to go in the window, but palace only have two listed strikers. Benteke and Wickham at 4.5. If they were to run with that Wickham could be useful in a Quanar sort of way. I think they even gave him a new contract at the end of last season.

Looking at where the value could be I can see Leicester and Southampton as next seasons surprise packages compared to last year. Rodgers teams always are all out attack and usually involved in high scoring shoot outs. While Southamptons manager (don’t ask me to type his name), turned their season around and got form and results into that team when he came in.

Any gems in the newly promoted teams? Had a look at McGinn at Villa but never played at this level and creative midfield players at newly promoted clubs often struggle.

[Mav3rick]

Well well well, the game is a foot! I'll have a good look over the pricing structures later this evening, from what's being said it sounds like I'll be perplexed by the new prices but the new season always feels a little like that.

Should be fun!

[Pirlo's Beard]

Well well well, the game is a foot!

Some years it's a very smelly foot.

[Mav3rick]

I think Kane is pretty good value at 11.0, definitely in as my captain on seeing that. I like Gomez as a risky D3 for now as well.

Heaton, Robertson, Gomez & Kane in. Thinking about pen takers from the mids, Mane looks too expensive, and would probably have to back an Auba or Aguero over Sterling (again for the pens).

[Finisher1]

I think Kane is pretty good value at 11.0, definitely in as my captain on seeing that.

Over the season he is probably good value but his terrible GW2 fixture puts me off at the moment. True, his GW1 fixture is delicious and he is even a captain contender that gameweek, but personally I'd still captain Salah so it kind of decreases Kane's value for me.

If Lukaku moves to Italy (as rumoured) then Rashford really does become very appealing to me (as he'd presumably become perma-central-role with pens and some freekicks/corners).

Yes, I'd be very tempted by Rashford in that case. He has terrible GW1-2 fixtures as well, but in his case it would be acceptable, because if he is indeed a central striker with pens then his correct price over the season should be at least 11.0, so I could stand some unfavourable fixtures for him.

[Finisher1]

Sane is a complete no go imo. As soon as KDB is fit I believe Sane is not in the team - that's what I'd say essentially happened last season for his infamous DGW25 fail, and beyond.

I think it's a way too early to say that Sane is not in the team. Do you still recall our discussion on Bernardo about a year ago?

If I were gambling on a 6.5m mid who will inevitably be dropped it would probably be Bernardo. Edit: 7.5, thanks SK - wow that's expensive!

Well Pep has praised Bernando in pre-season, most recently yesterday. I recall last season literally no one had Sterling in their initial team, yet he ended up being the most nailed and the best scoring City midfielder.

Do you think it's absolutely impossible this happens to Bernardo this season?

No. But KDB will definitely come into the midfield, and surely Dilva will play at least sometimes. Can't see him being picked over Mahrez/Sterling on the right.

So, the fact is when season 2017-18 started no one thought Sterling would be a regular starter, yet he ended up being the most nailed one. The fact is also that when season 2018-19 started no one thought Bernardo would be a regular starter, yet he ended up being the most nailed one.

Things change very fast in City, we have to see what happens in pre-season.

Obviously it's possible Sane moves to Bayern, in which case this discussion is pointless. Anyway, I'm fairly sure that if Sane becomes likely enough to be a regular starter in City, then both of us will have him in our teams, right? So let's see what happens in pre-season

[Mav3rick]

Right time for some FPL!

[From4corners]

Nice to see you back in the mix of things!

Leaves me with 5 mill for the third striker spot and an uninspiring Shane Long, maybe that can be improved on as the transfer window goes on.

Looking at where the value could be I can see Leicester and Southampton as next seasons surprise packages compared to last year. Rodgers teams always are all out attack and usually involved in high scoring shoot outs. While Southamptons manager (don’t ask me to type his name), turned their season around and got form and results into that team when he came in.

Any gems in the newly promoted teams? Had a look at McGinn at Villa but never played at this level and creative midfield players at newly promoted clubs often struggle.

Perhaps keep an eye out on BHA's Andone as I could see BHA being a surprise package with a new and supposedly attack minded manager that could reap nice benefits for e.g. Knockaert and Groß as well. Their full-backs might also come into play, rather than Duffy and Dunk.

As for promoted teams, I've currently got Krul and their back-up in goal, Sheffield's O'Connell (4.5, def) and Villa's El Ghazi (5.5, mid and I like him). From hearsay, Pukki is going to be a snip.

[Finisher1]

From hearsay, Pukki is going to be a snip.

Well that is very obvious

He is going to have a tremendous season.

[Spinynorman]

I have always gone for the cheapest reasonable defence that I could manage but have as yet failed to finish top. and win FPL. From what I have read so far it looks like at least one seemingly incredibly expensive defender is the way to go, possibly even two!

I will consider this carefully.

[FranckKessie]

Might be useful for some of you, so here are initial information from the FPL-site stored in excel.
- Teams
- Current Playerlist including initial price
- Complete fixurelist

19&amp;20FPLInformationExcel.rar

Let the games begin!

[Stena Bib]

I am Predicting that the TEMPLATE team is going to be even more evident. Starting from GW1.

I.e x3 City x3 pool, etc.

[Mo Bot]

After 8 minutes deliberation I have come up with.

Heaton Ryan
Robertson VVD Alderweireld AWB Kelly
Sterling Bilva Richarlison Moutinho Hayden
Kane (c) Rashford Andone

6 weeks to mess about with it so it will be interesting to see how many of these survive. Already shying away from my new season resolution of not captaining a striker.

Super Cup, AFCON and Copa America could mess with the first week or so

[Mav3rick]

Just playing with structures really rather than making too many personnel decisions, however there are a few players that stand out to me and I'll try to build around them over the weekend:

4.5 (Heaton), 4.0
7.0 (Robertson), 6.0, 5.5 (Gomez), 4.5, 4.5
12.5 (Salah), 9.5 (KDB), 6.5, 4.5, 4.5
11.0 (Kane), 9.0 (Vardy), 6.5

Is as far as I got so far. I couldn't see ant TAA-like 5.0 defenders this year so a rotating pair of 4.5 defenders with 4.5 mids would provide the 433/343 hybrid I think.

Have an eye on Redmond (6.5) and Foden (5.5) for the 6.5 mid spot, and Jota is in my mind for the 3rd striker. Will be monitoring pre-season for the 4.5s and any hints about Gomez or any potential 4.0 defenders. Coleman looks to be a ready made replacement if need be for Gomez,

[Mav3rick]

Nice to see you back in the mix of things!

Thanks interesting being back and feel like I've got a lot to catch up on!

As for promoted teams, I've currently got Krul and their back-up in goal, Sheffield's O'Connell (4.5, def) and Villa's El Ghazi (5.5, mid and I like him). From hearsay, Pukki is going to be a snip.

6.5 though for a promoted striker, it's a bit of a price hike from Jimenez at 5.5. Barnes/Wood not piquing any interest? JBG at Burnley as well is tempting if he gets his place back in the team, although I still think I prefer Redmond in that sort of price range.

[TheRumourMill]

Evening all,

Currently on this draft:

Heaton
TAA, VVD, Laporte, Digne
Salah, Sterling, Siggy, Zaha
DCL, King
Button, Diop, Wickham, Stephens

Was thinking about 4-4-2 before game was released so pleased to see I can make it work. The prices for Laporte, and the Liverpool defenders are superb. Digne very creative and superb fixtures to start.

Glad fpl threw us a bone with the Burnley keepers, the standard 5.0 for most other keepers is very disappointing.

Salah and sterling covers the captaincy, Siggy and Zaha have plenty of threat and good fixtures, also contribute to pens too.

King seems decent value, and is again another pen taker. Hopefully can get a goal in the opening 2 fixtures. DCL I think could be set for a breakthrough season. Plenty of mid price strikers to shift to aswell in this bracket. Going without a premium striker does limit my flexibility but they're such awful value I'm not too bothered. And I'm not going to captain them anyway as far as I can see at this stage. I think the Kane cut has turned people's heads but I'm not convinced we will ever see the Kane of 2016-17 ever again. I suspect injuries have taken their toll on him. And Aubameyang appears to be a rotation risk.

[Zimmerman]

Have an eye on Redmond (6.5) and Foden (5.5) for the 6.5 mid spot, and Jota is in my mind for the 3rd striker. Will be monitoring pre-season for the 4.5s and any hints about Gomez or any potential 4.0 defenders. Coleman looks to be a ready made replacement if need be for Gomez,

Interesting Foden over Gundogan at the same price point?

Gundogan obviously benefitted from de Bruyne's absences - but he does appear to be Peps go to backup man.

De Bruyne has missed lots of football and ‘could’ yet struggle with a few niggles - maybe the full summer off and then a full pre-season sets him up. Fernandinho starting to get a few more injuries too (and a bit older). So I still think Gundogan offers some value (and less risk than Foden).

Do we think Foden starts getting more minutes (as he starts to grow... and to prepare him to step in to Silvas role after this season?