Dod's Blog

[SirMattBugsby]

Nice dod! Always feels good to come across Fpl players by chance, let alone 2nd in the world.

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[fred1266]

At my regular poker game tonight I notice this guy Leon sitting next to me is intently watching the football on TV. I ask him if he has a bet on the match. "No" he replies, "I just want Anderson and Mitrovic to score."

As they play for different teams it's obvious what his interest is. "How are you doing in FPL this season?" I ask.

"Pretty good. I'm second."

"In your mini-league?"

"No (and then in a slightly embarrassed tone) ... in the world."

I don't think he frequents this site but he's a really nice, polite, self-effacing guy, so good luck to Tikka M Salah for the rest of the season https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/entry/22689/history

lol

[From4corners]

That's great haha.

[dino1980]

Nice Dod. I work in the poker industry and interviewed Leon once when he was end of day chip leader at an event I was reporting at.

He made the final table of the WCOOP Main Event one year and was a Supernova Elite back when that existed. You need to work on your game selection.

Super nice guy. @flippetyflopuk on Twitter if anyone wants to sweat along with him as he tries to win it all.

[zomri]

"No (and then in a slightly embarrassed tone) ... in the world."

Imagine Jeremy Clarkson saying that lol

[dod]

Nice Dod. I work in the poker industry and interviewed Leon once when he was end of day chip leader at an event I was reporting at.

He made the final table of the WCOOP Main Event one year and was a Supernova Elite back when that existed. You need to work on your game selection.

Super nice guy. @flippetyflopuk on Twitter if anyone wants to sweat along with him as he tries to win it all.

Interesting. He's a reg at my local game which is just a £50 buy-in tournament. He's clearly a decent player but not one of the big winners. He may do better in the cash games (I don't play cash).

He had a classic bad beat a couple of weeks ago. He flopped 4 of a kind after calling an all in bluff from a hyper-aggressive player and everybody assumed he had a lock, but he called his opponents next two cards which filled an inside straight flush. He called them in the right order as well .

I've never seen him call cards before. I think it was just an extreme situation. His reaction when the second card fell was priceless. He did a little run around the table clapping his hands and laughing. Everyone else was laughing too. I honestly think he got more pleasure from suffering such a bad beat than he would have from winning the hand.

[dino1980]

Shame that wasn’t in a cash game given most casinos have a bad beat jackpot of some kind. Not that they always pay out the full amount, there was a scandal at The Empire poker room a few years ago of that nature.

Assume this was The Vic or Aspers? I used to play a lot, both online and live but work and life have taken over. My local game was in Streatham but the club has folded.
£50 tournaments are within my range so I might see you at the tables. I’ll be the one browsing FISO.

[ragamuffin]

Small world Dod. Leon is in an FPL Facebook group with me. Having a storming season. Btw if you want to join just let me know. We have some top players in there and your addition would be very valuable and appreciated. Also if anyone else wants in let me know

[dod]

Shame that wasn’t in a cash game given most casinos have a bad beat jackpot of some kind. Not that they always pay out the full amount, there was a scandal at The Empire poker room a few years ago of that nature.

Assume this was The Vic or Aspers? I used to play a lot, both online and live but work and life have taken over. My local game was in Streatham but the club has folded.
£50 tournaments are within my range so I might see you at the tables. I’ll be the one browsing FISO.

Hi Dino. Actually I play at the Compton House Social Club in Stanmore. It's a bit way out in the sticks but it's got a friendly crowd and very good staff. It feels a bit more like a home game than a casino. We usually get about 50 people for the Friday night tournament. It used to be a bit of a rough dive but has been transformed under new management. Give it a go if you are in the area.

[dod]

Small world Dod. Leon is in an FPL Facebook group with me. Having a storming season. Btw if you want to join just let me know. We have some top players in there and your addition would be very valuable and appreciated. Also if anyone else wants in let me know

I'd love to if I was on Facebook. That's the wife's domain and I'm not allowed anywhere near it .

In exchange she stays away from YouTube and I don't get my suggested videos clogged up with her appalling taste in music .

[dod]

Backgammon lessons for FPL Part 1

Don't worry; you don't need to know anything about backgammon .

According to a report delivered to President Obama by the National Science Foundation in 2014, one in four Americans believe the sun orbits the Earth . Now although this might be a shocking indictment of the standard of education in the USA it does also demonstrate very clearly that just because a lot of people believe something is true it doesn't make it so.

Why do I mention this? Well, back in the day when I first started playing backgammon one of the first things I learned were the respective worth of which points to make. This was a fundamental of the game; a bit like when you learn the value of the pieces in chess (queen = 9pts, rook = 5, bishop & knight =3, pawn = 1). Of course it was only a rough guide but useful nonetheless especially while you were learning the game.

All the old books were quite clear on the topic; the most important point to make was your bar point, followed by the 5-point, the 4-point and then it got a bit murky. Experts were divided over whether you should make the 3-point at all early in the game if you had the opportunity. They all agreed making the 2-point was bad and would laugh at anyone who made the ace point. They clearly knew nothing about the game.

As it turned out the old books (as most all old books are) were horribly wrong. It turns out that the most important point to own was the 6-point (which nobody even thought to consider because you start every game owning the 6 point), followed by the 5-point, the 4-point, and only then the formerly much revered bar point. The 3-point was good (and by far the best way to use an opening roll of 5,3 at all match scores) and making even the 2 point was correct with an opening roll of 6,4 at some match scores. It even turns out that in some circumstances it is correct to make the ace point .

None of this is important except to demonstrate that in the world's oldest and most widely played board game, after 4500 years of playing, all the best experts in the world absolutely believed the equivalent of 'the sun orbits the Earth'. This isn't even surprising. The same thing is true of almost every complex game ever invented. In backgammon 'the truth' was not discovered by clever humans but by big, dumb, number crunching computers. It didn't stop there either. Bigger computers came along and showed deeper truths. Presumably this will follow the law of diminishing returns but who knows? Maybe one day a creative human will come along with a new way of playing the game and we will have to tear up all the books again.

So what then is the chance that in a complex game like FPL some of the fundamental game concepts that everyone currently believes are true will turn out to be false, and vice-versa? My personal estimate is that that is a near certainty.

Let's consider a practical FPL example and discuss the chips in backgammon terms. Obviously you want to play your chips when it is most advantageous to do so, but once used, you cannot use them again. This is somewhat analogous to the doubling cube in backgammon. At the start of a backgammon money play game (the simplest form of the game) both players have access to the doubling cube. If one player thinks he is in an advantageous position he can turn the cube and double the stakes. The opponent then has a choice of rejecting the cube and conceding the game at the original stake or accepting the cube and playing on with the stakes doubled. If he accepts he then has ownership of the cube and only he has the option to redouble the stakes again.

Simple mathematics tells us that the break-even cube acceptance point is 25% (I am ignoring gammons and backgammons for simplicity). If you have 25% winning chances then you will win 1 game in 4. Therefore if you play out this scenario 4 times after accepting the cube you will lose 2 pts on 3 occasions and win 2 pts on 1 occasion. The net result is (-2 x 3) +2 = -4 pts. This exactly the same as if you rejected the cube and paid -1 on 4 occasions. In fact you can accept a cube with as little as 23.5% winning chances as cube ownership means you don't actually have to win a game but only reach 76.5% winning chances in order to return the cube and cash the win (accepting would be an equity error).

We can see from this that if you have access to the cube you want to get as close to the 76.5% winning chances as possible in order to offer it to your opponent because you want to give your opponent an opportunity to make a mistake. You would love them to drop a cube when they have 30% winning chances or accept one where they only have 20%. Cubing too late when they have an easy drop is known as 'losing your market'.

You can also 'lose your market' in FPL. For example the optimum time for me to have played my BB chip would have been in GW1 when I left a massive 26pts on the bench which was 15pts more than at any other time this season (GW28 when I actually played my BB chip). In previous seasons I have done better with the BB chip by playing them in DGWs, however these were set up by the 2nd wildcard and I found that the pts lost in the run up to, and recovery from, the use of the BB chip more than cancelled out the benefit of the one bumper GW.

I think it is fair to say that I made a complete dog's dinner of both of my wildcards this season. More on how exactly I managed this will form the basis of later posts but for now I'll just say that I think that the better the start you have the less useful the 1st wildcard is. In general I've tried to target fixture shifts and while this makes sense in theory the problem is that the teams you identify as ones that you wish to invest in at the beginning of the season may very well not be the same when you reach the fixture shift GW you were waiting for. I am becoming more persuaded by the idea of using the 1st wildcard either very early or as late as possible.

Again with the 1st wildcard there is a large chance of losing your market. Player prices are most volatile at the beginning of the season and a good start ensures a high team value. This is not crucial but cannot hurt as I have previously covered earlier in this blog. More to the point is that if your team is doing well you may never find yourself needing to do more than just tinker with it. What use is a wildcard under those circumstances? Maybe it is better to use it early on a small wish list than lose your market and find it is of almost no use at all.

This post is long enough so I'll revisit this theme at a later juncture.

[SirMattBugsby]

Superb! I'd like to learn backgammon now

Agree regarding BB in GW1. Ruth called it and I'll certainly look out for it next season.

In general, I'm wanting to be more instinctive in my use of chips and captaincy. 'Planning' to use a chip in a GW one month away is a frustrating exercise. In contrast, weeks with 'benching dilemma' or a standout captain have equal potential and are more relevant in terms of playing probability and form.

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[Patrician]

Another vote here for the GW1 bench boost, I am finding it such an awkward chip that is definitely tempting me into making sub optimal plays to try and get a good bench boost.

I have always been an advocate for a pretty early first wild card. There is a huge increase in information from about gameweek 3 compared with before the start of the season, but the value of that information decreases after about gameweek 5. That for me is the window when you can beat the masses to be first to the template.


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[Smurphy Paw]

I’m seldom firing on all cylinders in the first couple of weeks and getting 15 out is usually beyond me. I’ll claim it’s like a fine wine that needs time to breathe. Could be the ant hill mob getting their legs whirring. Whichever, I’m not a fan of the GW1 BB for me.

[dod]

Bench Boost ramblings

I'm in two minds about the GW1 bench boost.

On the one hand I am not someone who likes to start off with a lot a lot of punts in my team so getting out a full 15 man squad shouldn't be a problem. The BB is an awkward chip to maximise the value of. It ideally requires a DGW where a bunch of cheap players have good fixtures and where you don't want to play one of your other chips. Such beasts are rare, and in some seasons, nonexistent.

There is also the need (or at least the temptation) to prepare for the chip. If you use it in a DGW you will at least require 4 playing subs. Ideally each of these subs will require a DGW themselves and preferably good fixtures. Good luck with that .

On the other hand using the BB early does mean that should a GW occur where you just happen to have really good fixtures for all of your players, and consequently a massive benching quandary, you no longer have a 'Get Out of Jail Free' card.

Committing to an GW1 BB also likely means you are committing to an early wildcard. I like to start the season with at least 1 basement price non-playing outfield player (usually a 4.5m attacker). The budget is tight early doors and there is usually little need for a 3rd (or even 2nd) sub. Committing to an early 1st wildcard isn't as bad as using your 2nd wildcard to set up your DGW BB as using the 1st wildcard early isn't a bad idea anyway. You could really optimise playing short term knowing you will wildcard in GWs 2-4. It's almost like using your initial selection like a FH chip .

The other advantage of using the BB in GW1 is that you will likely be able to strut around FISO waving your impressively high early ranking . From perusing the Ville Ronka thread I am cognisant of the fact that that will definitely appeal to some people .

There is a 3rd option. I have long been considering using my 2nd wildcard in GW37 or 38 as effectively a 2nd FH chip. I consider the FH by far the most powerful chip (even better than a wildcard) so why not convert your 2nd wildcard into one? GW 38 is usually very high scoring anyway and we know which teams are already on the beach. If you still have your BB chip you can use your high team value to set up an impressive GW38 BB by wildcarding in GW37. This would be particularly useful for those targeting mini-leagues as you will know your rival's teams and be able to go differential crazy (or if leading copy their squads) .

Indeed why not have 3 FH chips? Your initial selection (corrected by your 1st wildcard), your actual FH (played in a DGW or BGW), and your 2nd wildcard to set up a GW38 BB? It makes your season very structured which might not appeal to everyone but it might also be fun . A lot will, of course, depend on the fixture list but currently I'm planning on giving this a go next season .

*Note that you can only use your BB once so would need to choose between GW1 or GW38.

[Bobby Fetta]

GW 38 is usually very high scoring anyway and we know which teams are already on the beach. If you still have your BB chip you can use your high team value to set up an impressive GW38 BB by wildcarding in GW37.

I considered this tactic (gw38 BB) last season but didn't go through with it. The thing that put me off is that, whilst gw38 often seems to be high scoring, I think those are attacking points. For a team set up to normally play 3 at the back, the BB gives you the chance to play your reserve GK and two (possibly budget) defenders, plus your eighth attacker. So the main source of BB points are actually defensive returns so a high goal-scoring week is not necessarily good news.

Note - I haven't done any number crunching on the prevalence of clean sheets in gw38 compared to other gameweeks. As you say, some teams are on the beach (particularly away teams) so there are still CSs about.

[Aldershot Rejects]

In the last 5 years, the number of cs in week 38 is 4 - 4 - 7 - 2 - 6. So an average of 4.6. Average cs per week this season is 5.4 (last year it was 5.9). I haven't checked previous years, but last year there were 9 cs in GW36 (a season high alongside GWs 3&5) and 8 in GW37.

[Bobby Fetta]

In the last 5 years, the number of cs in week 38 is 4 - 4 - 7 - 2 - 6. So an average of 4.6. Average cs per week this season is 5.4 (last year it was 5.9). I haven't checked previous years, but last year there were 9 cs in GW36 (a season high alongside GWs 3&5) and 8 in GW37.

Wow, that was quick AR! I was hoping someone else would tell me the answer but didn't expect it so soon. On that basis, the difference doesn't really seem that big to me. So maybe BB38 is a decent option. I think the last day's fixtures are perhaps easier to predict than normal - the home/away thing I mentioned; lame duck managers; teams finishing on a high; or even, god forbid, some actual title / CL qualification / relegation deciding matches.

[Aldershot Rejects]

In the last 5 years, the number of cs in week 38 is 4 - 4 - 7 - 2 - 6. So an average of 4.6. Average cs per week this season is 5.4 (last year it was 5.9). I haven't checked previous years, but last year there were 9 cs in GW36 (a season high alongside GWs 3&5) and 8 in GW37.

Wow, that was quick AR! I was hoping someone else would tell me the answer but didn't expect it so soon. On that basis, the difference doesn't really seem that big to me. So maybe BB38 is a decent option. I think the last day's fixtures are perhaps easier to predict than normal - the home/away thing I mentioned; lame duck managers; teams finishing on a high; or even, god forbid, some actual title / CL qualification / relegation deciding matches.

No problem Bobby.

SOU v HUD, FUL v NCL should both offer decent cs possibilities for cheap defenders playing against relegated (by then) sides. If the battle for the top 4 is still going there might be some interesting options there as well.. Man City at Brighton should the title still be live would also offer lots of possibilities.

[zipnolan]

As usual some fantastic lateral thing here Dod.

Although GW1 is everybody’s retrospective BB this year, it does seem that the stars algned especially fortuitously. Eight teams had a clean sheet including Liverpool, Chelsea and Man City. A number of popular presseason picks (Richarlison, Mendy, Robertson, AWB) all scored big. To me it still looks a bit of a freakish result, but the key learning Im taking from this is that a successful BB week needs to have a lot of clean sheets in it.

Although I’m not completely sold on the idea of the GW38 WC for a free hit I am going to go back and research how late I can feasibly wildcard to maximise WC value at the end of the season. I do think most players including myself have used the second wildcard too early, so by end of season most of the explosive value has dwindled to a dull fart.

[dod]

It's been a while since I've posted about my actual team. I've had a couple of small green arrows in the last 2 GWs but I find myself languishing just under 60k so there's nothing to get excited about . The only chip I have left is the FH which is earmarked for GW32. I should be okay this GW and with 2FTs this week I just needed to ensure I'll have a full 11 for the blank in GW31.

The backgammon play would be to maximise my options. I know I will be employing the FH in GW32 so simply doing Jota Brooks gives me 2FTs next GW with 9 players already for the blank and 1.1m ITB. Things will become much clearer by next GW so for now I'm just keeping my powder dry.

[Sutter Kane]

Yes your only worry is GW35. However with a few smart hits, you may be able to ride that storm but more importantly make sure you are set for GW36-38 where others who have wildcarded might not be.

[Smurphy Paw]

SK, I thought the whole point of the later wildcard was to prepare for 36-38, taking in 35 on the way?
That’s my plan, maximising expected points over the arc of fixtures.

Incidentally I will also BB in that time period. Some of the criticism of a BB35 strategy is the incorrect assumption that by looking for 15 players in 35 one is taking one’s eye off the bigger picture. For example, going for a Brighton keeper as my 2nd keeper (thinking of the possibility of the extra double as well, not that I am committed to who GK1 will be yet). By the same rationale someone like Dunk or Duffy might be last on my bench for all the other game weeks.
I suspect that it is because I don’t place much value on the bench boost chip that I am content with this. I look at it as a by-product of re-setting the more important places in my squad that will shortly be pulled out of shape by the blanks and doubles. Dod, I see parallels with the logic you present for the BB1/Early wildcard

[Sutter Kane]

Many will do that because the draw of 15 doublers is large. I won't but many people will. And they may well enjoy a massive GW35 because of it.

[Sutter Kane]

Yeah if it falls into place reasonably, I'm all for GW1 BB.

[dod]

I ended up taking a hit last GW to get out a full XI. Salah, Jimenez and Son, made way for Mane, Hazard and Wilson (-4).

Salah had to go. He has been a nightmare for me this season. When I've owned him he's blanked, and when I haven't he's hauled . What makes this especially galling is that on my early 2nd wildcard I made the decision to go Salahless because I didn't think he could justify his price. Sadly I relented and brought him in at the exact moment he started to prove me right .

Putting the armband on Mane meant I had a relatively good GW and am now back up to around the 46k mark. Obviously that's a bit shit, but bearing in mind that I have missed every major haul this season (except for Kun's first), messed up both wildcards, and had mediocre results from my TC and BB chips, and am, quite frankly, little better than average at player selection , I really should be doing worse .

That I am not, I believe, is largely down to my strategic decisions. Not that I have gotten all of those correct by any means, however I feel my non-selection decisions have probably saved me quite a few points this season. It's a hard thing to quantify but I'd estimate in the region of 100 pts. I suspect this is only around a third of what could be achieved with an optimal strategic approach, although - as in all things - I could be wrong about this as well .

This coming GW will see the use of my final - and IMHO the most powerful - chip. I have plenty of budget for my FH. Once we know exactly what DGW fixtures are available I'd be very interested in any player suggestions .

It's the time of the season when having accepted that I am not going to win FPL this year I take a look at my mini-leagues. Mostly they are just filler but there are 3 I actually have some interest in winning.

The most important is the £5 bet I have every season with the mate who got me into FPL. He beat me the 1st season I played but I have won the subsequent 3. As always it is not the money that matters but the gloating . Currently I lead him by 126 pts so that one at least should be in the bag.

The next is a Spurs Forum I frequent. Here I'm in 7th place and trail the leader by 33pts. Given that I have no chips left that will be a tough ask.

Finally there is a small money league. There's only a couple of hundred quid at stake but it's pretty tight with only 39 pts separating 1st and 4th. I'm leading but the others have chips left so who knows?

[raoul]

Can we expect some more tactical musings, now that your hopes of winning it all have died down?

Regarding GW32 and FH, I presume you are aware of the thread discussing players. Seems to be a general consensus and as such a lot of similar teams likely to be put out this coming week.

Suspect we are due another TC jackpot v fiasco based on Aguero v Sterling, but the more interesting decisions seem to be which of Jota/Deulofeu types might make it in, whether to trust Palace v Chelsea defenders, and who the third MC player should be.

Maybe someone will suggest something a little off the wall but it isn't happening yet...

[dod]

Can we expect some more tactical musings, now that your hopes of winning it all have died down?

Regarding GW32 and FH, I presume you are aware of the thread discussing players. Seems to be a general consensus and as such a lot of similar teams likely to be put out this coming week.

Suspect we are due another TC jackpot v fiasco based on Aguero v Sterling, but the more interesting decisions seem to be which of Jota/Deulofeu types might make it in, whether to trust Palace v Chelsea defenders, and who the third MC player should be.

Maybe someone will suggest something a little off the wall but it isn't happening yet...

Yep. I'll definitely be concentrating on theory posts unless something remarkable happens with my team ... which it won't .

[dod]

Okay. One last post on my FH team. My initial effort looked very much like everybody else's which is no fun at all . Barring injuries this is my final line up.

Kepa

Luiz Laporte Schlupp

Pogba Hazard (vc) Sterling (c) Babel

Jimenez Kane Aguero

Norris Chambers McTominay Connolly

Dammit! It still looks the same as everybody else's .

[Joccki_10]

Have you thought about Lukaku, who no one seems to have?