Dod's Blog

[Patrician]

Schmeichel 5.0 Gunn 4.3

Robertson 6.3 TAA 5.1 Pereira 5.2 Chambers 4.2 KWP 4.2

Richarlison 6.9 Pogba 8.1 Sane 9.3 Hazard 11.0 Camarasa 4.6

Kane 12.5 Arnautovic 6.9 Rashford 7.2[/color]

On the one hand, you are going to run without Salah due to being so highly owned in the Top 10k, on the other hand, you have four other picks that are highly owned by the top 10k, and it seems to me like you have actively avoided low ownership players who could explode into points machines (Eriksen, De Bruyne, Firmino to name a few). You have quite a few players with tricky fixtures on the horizon (Lei, Whu, Eve, even Mci). You are not taking advantage of some extremely cheap players with favourable fixtures (e.g. Bednarek, Guaita, Romeu). The big player you are spanking the most money on is a questionable pick this season (IMO).

Looks a bit on the dodgy side to me.

[Smurphy Paw]

So your first big test, Dod. Or at least your first test since starting this blog.

I have a question for you. What’s the difference in approach between maximising ranking and being No1 for a week; and being number 1 after GW38?
Or, to ask another way, at what point would the (theoretical) retention of the wildcard be a greater advantage than the shorter term gains of use now?
And how would one know the difference?

[dod]

Thanks for all the suggestions and advice. I haven't had the time to reply to everyone but I'll get around to it in due course. Currently my provisional wildcard squad looks like this:

Schmeichel 5.0 Gunn 4.3

Robertson 6.3 TAA 5.1 Pereira 5.2 Doherty 5.2 KWP 4.2

Richarlison 6.9 Pogba 8.1 Sane 9.3 Hazard 11.0 Fraser 6.1

Aubameyang 11.4 Arnautovic 6.9 Rashford 7.2

1.7m ITB

I realised that I wasn't utilising my high DB to the best extent. I have upgraded Chambers to Doherty because I asked myself why was I choosing a defender from a team that can't defend?

The other major difference was as a result of considering a comment of Ruth's asking why I was wasting money on Camarasa when he wasn't a rotation option? I've fixed this by bringing in Fraser who is a rotation option and preparing for when BOU's fixtures turn. I realise that this breaks the rule of not spending money on the 8th attacker but I feel that this rule applies when money is tight. I spent the first half of the season taking risks and hits to build my budget and now is the time to take advantage of it. Not only does Fraser give me a rotation option but also a strong 1st sub.

My aim is to maximise flexibility and use my FTs to jump on the best non-Salah captain each week. When inevitably there are unexpected no-shows I'm happier fielding Doherty or Fraser, than Chambers or Camarasa. I can afford to bring in any attacker apart from Salah with a single move. In defence (barring injury) I am prepared to live or die by what I have. I have 4 of the current top 9 defenders so it should be reasonable. I have spent some considerable time examining how these players rotate and the effect of BGWs and it seems reasonably resilient.

As always feel free to comment and criticise .

[Patrician]

Since no Salah is a differential for you, have you considered taking full advantage of that and tripling up on Liverpool defenders, for a high variance play?

[Smurphy Paw]

Are you sure that Gunn will be between the sticks by the time you need him?

[Joccki_10]

Since no Salah is a differential for you, have you considered taking full advantage of that and tripling up on Liverpool defenders, for a high variance play?

I genuinely think this is a good suggestion. You could also take Alisson instead of Schmeichel.

[mandoncare]

Looks like that team would have too much of budget on the bench each week. And yet the one change I'd make is upgrade KWP. 2 apps in 21 games and that's even with Trippier, Aurier and Rose missing some games with injuries.

Doesn't Lovren's injury last night make tripling up on Liverpool's defence slightly less attractive..

[Ruth_NZ]

Looks like that team would have too much of budget on the bench each week. And yet the one change I'd make is upgrade KWP. 2 apps in 21 games and that's even with Trippier, Aurier and Rose missing some games with injuries.

Doesn't Lovren's injury last night make tripling up on Liverpool's defence slightly less attractive...

I think it makes Gomez even more attractive. 4.9m and started 11 of 14 (I think) before his injury. It's probably a question of VVD or Gomez for me and I'm not sure that VVD is worth 1.5m more, even allowing for the odd possible benching of Gomez.

[dod]

Since no Salah is a differential for you, have you considered taking full advantage of that and tripling up on Liverpool defenders, for a high variance play?

I did consider it but rejected the idea for the following reasons:

1/ Triple-ups are extremely inflexible. There will be times when I won't want to field 2 LIV defs let alone 3.

2/ LIV are very dependent on VVD. If he is out injured or rested their defence is no longer a premium one. Even though I don't own him I don't like so much resting on a single player.

3/ I wanted to keep a LIV slot open. There will be GWs where I will want a LIV attacker if not Salah himself.

4/ It would make my KWP pick pointless and I am quite keen on that gamble.

5/ The extra cost would mean I lose my ability to bring in any attacker other than Salah with a single move as the only other LIV def I would consider would be VVD. Gomez has no attacking threat and Lovren is not nailed.

[dod]

Looks like that team would have too much of budget on the bench each week. And yet the one change I'd make is upgrade KWP. 2 apps in 21 games and that's even with Trippier, Aurier and Rose missing some games with injuries.

Doesn't Lovren's injury last night make tripling up on Liverpool's defence slightly less attractive..

I expect KWP to start quite a lot more games in the premiership this season, especially against the weaker sides. We are still involved in all competitions so Poch needs to prioritise. It wouldn't shock me to see one of our full-backs leave the club this window, and as KWP is versatile and can play either LB or RB this will benefit him. He is also English and we (surprisingly ) have issues in having too many foreign players in our squad.

[dod]

Are you sure that Gunn will be between the sticks by the time you need him?

No I'm not. He has the jersey now though and was impressive in his only appearance so I'm taking a punt on it. Guiata is the obvious alternative.

[dod]

So your first big test, Dod. Or at least your first test since starting this blog.

I have a question for you. What’s the difference in approach between maximising ranking and being No1 for a week; and being number 1 after GW38?
Or, to ask another way, at what point would the (theoretical) retention of the wildcard be a greater advantage than the shorter term gains of use now?
And how would one know the difference?

I'm not sure I understand your question . If you are playing a one GW strategy you would probably have 2 defensive double/triple-ups, choose your attackers with no regard for future fixtures, and use whatever chips you think would maximise your pts that GW. That is obviously a terrible strategy if you are trying to win after GW38.

The other way you have stated the question seems a different question to me. It also implies that using a wildcard now is based solely on short term gains which definitely isn't the case. I guess the short banal answer is you have to weigh the perceived benefits of using the wildcard in the current GW vs. the potential that a more opportune occasion to use it will emerge before the end of the season. Of course, there is no way you can know these things with any degree of accuracy so you just have to use your judgement.

I suspect neither of the answers address the question you were actually trying to ask .

[dod]

After a nightmare in recent weeks I am also looking wildcard. Similar squad thoughts to yours.

But I have Wilson. And he must have a chance of being at a stronger club shortly?

I definitely have my eye on him. Even if he remains at BOU his fixtures from GW30 onward are extremely attractive (although perhaps not as good as they initially appear as they are mostly against relegation candidates and BOU may well be mentally on the beach at that point). The option of Wilson as a mid-priced forward is one of the reasons I have switched to a front 3 for the first time this season.

[dod]

I'd be interested to hear if anybody else is planning an alternative strategy for the 2nd wildcard. I'd set up a poll if I knew how to do it .

[Ruth_NZ]

I'd be interested to hear if anybody else is planning an alternative strategy for the 2nd wildcard. I'd set up a poll if I knew how to do it .

I'd be willing to go early, did last season. And with every PL team that gets knocked out of the FA Cup, the DGWs get smaller and the BGWs get less difficult to navigate, so things are moving your way at the moment.

I don't tend to plan a strategy for the wildcards as such, reason being that there are circumstances that can arise where your team just needs the wildcard and if so that's when to play it. The wildcards aren't like the lesser chips, where it is helpful to take a position in principle before the season begins.

You are right that a wildcard is for the long haul but against that must be set that they have a time-limited effect in some ways. Injuries intervene, players get dropped, others have purple patches, team form can change, managers can get replaced... all of those and more can change the picture. Right now there is the transfer window as an additional factor. So I think the wildcard always needs to provide the chance of an initial surge over 3-5 weeks as well as settling your underlying structure for a longer period. That means I always tend to look for immediate tactical advantage in terms of players/fixtures as well as strategic advantage in terms of a structure that I believe will fit the price/performance landscape well in the medium term.

All of that is why I said that GW27/28 might suit your purposes better. But for me, this mid-section of the season is for smooth management, few or no hits and ideally a long planning horizon. I hope to reach GW30 that way, by which time we are entering the tactical finale of the season. I'd always like to still have my wildcard available then unless I have seen sufficient advantage in going earlier.

PS. If you go back to your 1st post in this blog and click edit, you will be able to add a poll.

[dod]

OK, dod, I get your points. My view is still the same but I won't repeat it, just perhaps offer some ideas as to how the prototype could be improved?

• Guaita pairs better with Schmeichel than Gunn in my view. I still think 5m for Schmeichel is a mistake but I'll let that be.
• Bednarek saves another 0.3m over Chambers and covers Pereira's missing fixtures better.
• If you are looking for a structural edge, why not consider Gomez for Robertson? He'd give you the same CSs and 'Pool double but that saves another 1.4m and creates an ultra-defence where Pereira would be your most expensive item.
• You could happily downgrade Camarasa to Højbjerg and save another 0.2m; in a 3-4-3 structure such as you have the 5th mid won't be usable anyway (it's different in a 4-4-2 hybrid, where they become a rotator).
• If my reckoning is correct that would enable Rashford or Arnie to be Aguero, near enough.

Good luck.

Having looked again I think you are right about Guaita. He saves 0.1m and although his fixtures for GWs 24-26 when I will need him are not as good as Gunn's there are other GWs where he would be an option to Schmeichel whereas Gunn would not. He is also likely to be a better DGW option for the BB. Also CRY are a more defensively minded team than SOU and I prefer defenders from teams that prioritise defence.

The Bednarek/Chambers debate is now moot as I have upgraded this spot to Doherty. I've written about the reasons for my LIV def option choices in previous posts. I've also given up on the idea of having 2 premium forwards and instead will be using FTs to rotate my single premium striker spot. The plan is Aub (whm)/ Kane (ful)/ Aub (CAR)/ Kane (NEW)/ Firminho (BOU) etc. Obviously this could be derailed by injuries etc. but better to have a plan and change it than to have no plan at all.

[dod]

The Arnautovic speculation is a bit of a curve ball. Do I stick with him or bring in Wilson?

[skip]

The Arnautovic speculation is a bit of a curve ball. Do I stick with him or bring in Wilson?

The perils of having to make decisions during the transfer window. I’d stick with him as it’s likely speculation, plus Wilson is carrying a knock.

[Aldershot Rejects]

The Arnautovic speculation is a bit of a curve ball. Do I stick with him or bring in Wilson?

From Howe's press conference: "Callum was missing last week, Josh King was ill, Ryan Fraser was limping at the end of the [Brighton] game with a hamstring. We've got a few to assess. They're certainly up for playing, whether they're fit and available we'll wait and see."

No idea whether that means Wilson is a doubt or not, if so it looks like it is short term. Not mad keen on their fixtures though.

[Neath boy]

The Arnautovic speculation is a bit of a curve ball. Do I stick with him or bring in Wilson?

From Howe's press conference: "Callum was missing last week, Josh King was ill, Ryan Fraser was limping at the end of the [Brighton] game with a hamstring. We've got a few to assess. They're certainly up for playing, whether they're fit and available we'll wait and see."

No idea whether that means Wilson is a doubt or not, if so it looks like it is short term. Not mad keen on their fixtures though.

I had Wilson earmarked for transfer out next week but I had the exact money for the double move I had planned, so have been closely watching for price changes. Wilson looks certain to fall tonight so he has had to go a week early. Watch him play and score now!

[dod]

Even with a wildcard activated this isn't easy . I'm happy with my team structure but worried about the fitness of some of the individuals in it. My main concerns are my M5 and F3 spots.

For my 5th midfielder I want someone I can rotate in and will be a strong 1st sub. The main contenders are Fraser and Pereyra. I've considered other players from various teams but for reasons of cost, fixtures, or uncertainty, have rejected them. I want a nailed option capable of double-figure returns for less than 6.5m.

For my 3rd striker I want somebody capable of double-figure returns for under 7.5m. The fact that I am going with a strong M5 means they can miss the odd game or two but generally they will start. The options are Arnautovic, Wilson, and Jimenez.

I don't want both players from the same team so that rules out the Fraser/Wilson combo.

I was settled on Arnautovic and Fraser until it was revealed that Arnie is angling for a transfer and Fraser has a slight hammy. Pereyra can't be a long term hold as WAT basically go on holiday every season once they have avoided relegation. I don't see this changing. Wilson could easily be transferred himself. If he ends up at CHE would this increase or decrease his FPL potential? I'm not sure. I think most will see it as a good thing however. I am slightly put off Jimenez as I have Doherty as my D4. Also Wolves' next 2 fixtures are poor and that is where I most need a strong option.

I honestly don't know. Choosing players isn't really my forte; I am too heavily influenced by the 'eye-test' . I enjoy watching Arnautovic and Fraser, much more than Jimenez and Wilson. Jimenez in particular seems like an absolute donkey every time I watch him but in Wolves' system he gets so many opportunities it probably doesn't matter .

[Joccki_10]

Jota? Stanislas? Pedro?

[Aldershot Rejects]

For my 5th midfielder I want someone I can rotate in and will be a strong 1st sub. The main contenders are Fraser and Pereyra. I've considered other players from various teams but for reasons of cost, fixtures, or uncertainty, have rejected them. I want a nailed option capable of double-figure returns for less than 6.5m.

Milivojevic is also worth considering - he has 3 double-figure hauls this season - Fraser has 4 and Pereyra 2. If he's fit, Fraser is undoubtedly the best option in my opinion, although Wilson is probably also the best forward option (and I agree with you that I am not sure whether a move will bring positive or negative rewards), although Bournemouth's fixtures are a very mixed bag. In your situation, I would probably go with Jiminez who tends to score consistently but rarely hauls. In fact, I would go Jiminez over Doherty whose price increase means that he is no longer the value he once was.

[dod]

Jota? Stanislas? Pedro?

I've looked at all of those. Jota's missed the last 4 GWs and has poor fixtures in the next 2. Stanislas is an old favourite of mine but hasn't done anything this season. He's also an injury waiting to happen. Pedro just misses too many games and has only completed 90 minutes 5 times in the league this season. Nice left field picks but they just have too many downsides.

[dod]

For my 5th midfielder I want someone I can rotate in and will be a strong 1st sub. The main contenders are Fraser and Pereyra. I've considered other players from various teams but for reasons of cost, fixtures, or uncertainty, have rejected them. I want a nailed option capable of double-figure returns for less than 6.5m.

Milivojevic is also worth considering - he has 3 double-figure hauls this season - Fraser has 4 and Pereyra 2. If he's fit, Fraser is undoubtedly the best option in my opinion, although Wilson is probably also the best forward option (and I agree with you that I am not sure whether a move will bring positive or negative rewards), although Bournemouth's fixtures are a very mixed bag. In your situation, I would probably go with Jiminez who tends to score consistently but rarely hauls. In fact, I would go Jiminez over Doherty whose price increase means that he is no longer the value he once was.

Milo will probably be one of the first names on my team sheet when VAR comes in next season but he is too reliant on Zaha falling over in the box for his points for my liking . He's definitely on my watchlist if CRY get dragged into the relegation mix though as historically they tend to finish the season strongly.

It's not really a choice between Jiminez and Doherty. Doherty was just the best option to fill the gaps in my defensive rotation. I'm not really looking for consistency from my F3; I prefer blanks and hauls.

[Caf]

Do you really need to spend that much money in both of those spots, dod? One of those players is going to spend more than half their time on the bench, and 6+ is a lot of money for that sort of player.

Redistributing by, for example, dropping the F3 to a Kamara type (and withdrawing a bit of money from the bank) lets you push up from Pereyra to someone like Eriksen.

To me, it seems a more efficient use of funds while gameweeks are ‘regular’ and we’re some way out from the doubles. Plus, it seems you aren’t entirely happy with anyone in your targeted price brackets, which would naturally lead me to look elsewhere.

[dod]

Do you really need to spend that much money in both of those spots, dod? One of those players is going to spend more than half their time on the bench, and 6+ is a lot of money for that sort of player.

Redistributing by, for example, dropping the F3 to a Kamara type (and withdrawing a bit of money from the bank) lets you push up from Pereyra to someone like Eriksen.

To me, it seems a more efficient use of funds while gameweeks are ‘regular’ and we’re some way out from the doubles. Plus, it seems you aren’t entirely happy with anyone in your targeted price brackets, which would naturally lead me to look elsewhere.

I've actually owned Kamara from GW1 until GW21. I'm shifting my structure and trying something new because I have the budget to afford it. Having an extra viable attacker as a rotation option is not something I would normally advocate without a high budget but having looked at the fixtures it's something I think is worth experimenting with as an alternative approach to the one I normally adopt.

I could go with upgrading my M4 and having a cheap M5, or as you suggest (and as I have had almost all season) having a cheap F3. The problem is I often end up having to play a good player in a bad fixture. Some players simply don't perform well against good teams (the 'flat pitch bully' syndrome). Rather than buying the best 1st XI I can afford and hoping for them to defy history and perform in bad fixtures I am spreading the cash in order to find more flat pitches.

The worst that can happen by trying something new is that it doesn't work and I learn something. The worst that can happen by not trying something new is that it doesn't work and I don't learn anything .

[TheRumourMill]

What's your whole squad looking like currently Dod? Might help with the assessing the context of your m5/f3 decision

[Caf]

I could go with upgrading my M4 and having a cheap M5, or as you suggest (and as I have had almost all season) having a cheap F3. The problem is I often end up having to play a good player in a bad fixture. Some players simply don't perform well against good teams (the 'flat pitch bully' syndrome). Rather than buying the best 1st XI I can afford and hoping for them to defy history and perform in bad fixtures I am spreading the cash in order to find more flat pitches.

Interesting. You see - and obviously it’s very much a case-by-case thing, but to generalise - I would rather have a good player with a bad fixture than a bad player with a good one. I’ve spent a lot of my FPL career holding bad players because ‘they’ll surely come off next week,’ and now I’m pathologically averse to doing that. Plus, when you get to the genuinely good players, ok, trips to City or Liverpool might be bad, but most of the other games that the fixture ticker reckons are bad still have the potential for returns.

I do see the aim of your model, and how it could be efficient if used, say, in defence, where you get two 6m-ers and three base-price guys, and odds are at least one of them has a good fixture and is playable in any given week. But to do so in the attacking positions requires a lot more money and, therefore, just appears to be taking a risk in a different way - minimises risk of bad fixture, maximises risk of picking blanks and leaving returns on the bench.

Whatever you go with, good luck.

[Sutter Kane]

We're not really into signing bad players though... Camarasa I would agree even with a good fixture, I'd be inclined to bench because it's Cardiff. So I'd probably prefer someone cheaper to sit on the bench. However are Fraser or Pereyra classed as bad players when they have a good fixture. Would you prefer Pogba away at Spurs or Fraser/Pereyra vs someone rubbish - that's probably a bad e.g. but it's quite close imo. However, if I was going for a strongish front 8, I'd certainly make sure the rotation is spot on for future weeks. e.g. I've held Fraser as 5th mid because he covered Doherty very well through some patchy fixtures for both teams - after this week I'll want Doherty (and Jimmy) to play every game so I don't need such a strong squad any more. I can push more money into the first team, whilst of course keeping an eye on GW27 and any possible DGW25. So many eff things to consider!! (but as we considered on Ruth's thread a few weeks ago, your own squad pushes down avenues quite often you cannot control)