Dod's Blog

[raoul]

Have you thought about Lukaku, who no one seems to have?

A Rashford + Lukaku double up v Kane and Jimenez ... am looking at this myself.

An Aguero/Kane/Lukaku front line is doable, but probably playing a 433 and sacrificing Pogba for a Townsend or Deulofeu type.

[dod]

Have you thought about Lukaku, who no one seems to have?

I have. In fact he was the first player I didn't already own that I put in my FH team. He didn't survive the first draft though.

The problem is who do I lose to get him in? Kane is the obvious choice, but the money saved isn't actually that useful. I could use it to turn Schlupp into Rudiger, or Babel into Pedro, or Jimenez into Rashford, but frankly none of those options are that appealing.

Lukaku is a great pick for those who can't afford Kane, and I'm surprised he is in so few FH teams, but personally I'd rather have Kane.

[ragamuffin]

Okay. One last post on my FH team. My initial effort looked very much like everybody else's which is no fun at all . Barring injuries this is my final line up.

Kepa

Luiz Laporte Schlupp

Pogba Hazard (vc) Sterling (c) Babel

Jimenez Kane Aguero

Norris Chambers McTominay Connolly

Dammit! It still looks the same as everybody else's .

https://twitter.com/OfficialFPL/status/ ... 7381178368

remember fiso, ffs, twitter etc is actually an extremely small proportion of FPL overall. A drop in the ocean. it may seem like its the same as everyone else but it isnt, and don't let that put you off going with 'popular' players.

[dod]

Okay. One last post on my FH team. My initial effort looked very much like everybody else's which is no fun at all . Barring injuries this is my final line up.

Kepa

Luiz Laporte Schlupp

Pogba Hazard (vc) Sterling (c) Babel

Jimenez Kane Aguero

Norris Chambers McTominay Connolly

Dammit! It still looks the same as everybody else's .

https://twitter.com/OfficialFPL/status/ ... 7381178368

remember fiso, ffs, twitter etc is actually an extremely small proportion of FPL overall. A drop in the ocean. it may seem like its the same as everyone else but it isnt, and don't let that put you off going with 'popular' players.

Very true but the higher echelons are dominated by managers who are members of that "small proportion". I always assume that I am not really in competition with what I call 'The Great Unwashed' and others refer to as 'casuals'.

I do not mean to be disparaging by this term. For the sake of convenience and to spare my memory I have my own system of classification of the types of FPL managers. This is not related to a manager's skill or knowledge but rather their behaviour and habits within the game. The mnemonics are all 'fashion' based. Apart from TGUs there are FADs (Fops And Dandies), SCs (Smart Casuals), and DFFs (Dedicated Followers of Fashion). I'll get around to doing a theory post about them one of these days .

[raoul]

Lloris
Boly, Cathcart, Vertonghen
Sterling, Hazard, Sane, Pedro, Willian
Aguero, Deeney

If you'd like a bit more off-piste

[ragamuffin]

Or if you want to go for a cheeky 5 at the back.

Kepa
Laporte Azpi Schlupp PVA Lindelof
Haz Pogba Sterling
Kun Kaku

[Smurphy Paw]

I do not mean to be disparaging by this term. For the sake of convenience and to spare my memory I have my own system of classification of the types of FPL managers. This is not related to a manager's skill or knowledge but rather their behaviour and habits within the game. The mnemonics are all 'fashion' based. Apart from TGUs there are FADs (Fops And Dandies), SCs (Smart Casuals), and DFFs (Dedicated Followers of Fashion). I'll get around to doing a theory post about them one of these days .

[Aldershot Rejects]

I do not mean to be disparaging by this term. For the sake of convenience and to spare my memory I have my own system of classification of the types of FPL managers. This is not related to a manager's skill or knowledge but rather their behaviour and habits within the game. The mnemonics are all 'fashion' based. Apart from TGUs there are FADs (Fops And Dandies), SCs (Smart Casuals), and DFFs (Dedicated Followers of Fashion). I'll get around to doing a theory post about them one of these days .

I hope you are going to reveal which group those of us on here belong to

[raoul]

We also need MODs. Mull over differentials.

[dod]

The Menagerie of FPL Managers Part 1

Okay. As the subject has been brought up here are my 4 categories of FPL managers. I'd like to emphasise that these aren't categories based on a manager's perceived skill or football knowledge (I make no judgement in that respect and there can be good and bad FPL managers in all categories) but rather their habits within the game.

I'd also like to point out that the sole reason I came up with these categories was as a way to try to make sense of the player price market.

The Great Unwashed - A term created by the novelist and politician Edward Bulwer-Lytton (1803-1873) to describe the mass or multitude of ordinary people (he also came up with "the pen is mightier than the sword", "dweller on the threshold", and "pursuit of the almighty dollar"). TGUs are the largest group within FPL. They are the most likely to own dead teams and the least likely to make transfers. Nonetheless, due to their sheer quantity, they are the most important force in the transfer market, even if they are less likely to be a factor in the higher echelons of the rankings. Don't think of them as rivals but rather as friends who can help you gain an advantage over those who do not understand their habits.

TGUs are unlikely to be familiar with the finer points of FPL. Many will not even have bothered to have read the rules. They certainly do not frequent sites such as this and FFS and have no knowledge of the price prediction sites such as FPL stats. Some will make their transfers very early in the week but mostly they will do so on Friday night or Saturday morning. Many will be caught out if there is an early game and miss the deadline for that GW resulting in more transfer movement the following GW.

TGUs vary widely in their football knowledge. Some are Doris the tea lady who was press ganged in to their workplace mini-league and did auto-select or chose players because she liked their names. Others go to matches, or religiously watch MOTD and every live game on Sky. Some are professional footballers themselves. They don't necessarily know less that you about football, they just know less than you about FPL.

What sort of players do TGUs select? The one's they know of course. Members of the England squad and players who are frequently mentioned on the back pages of the red tops. Also the players from the club they support especially MUN, but also LIV, CHE, ARS, MCI and TOT. When they don't know the players they will choose the highest current scoring uninjured player available for the position and price they need to fill. I bolded that because it is important.

A lot of TGU picks are bad picks because they are good real life players whose abilities do not translate into FPL pts. However good TGU picks are great! Not just great but the absolute best in the game . TGU players tend to hold their value unless they get injured. Even then because of the 'dead team anchor' they fall in price more slowly than non-TGU players. Even when a player is horribly out of form if he has had a good start to the season and is high on the total pts list for his price and position he will see a steady stream of TGUs buying him even when more sophisticated FPL players are selling in droves.

There is one further hidden benefit to players owned by TGUs. They are secret differentials . Their popularity may be high among TGUs but for the most part TGUs are not your rivals. When is a high ownership player a low ownership player? When he's mainly a TGU pick of course .

To be continued ...

[Smurphy Paw]

I’ve said it before. I like your thought process. All very true

Looking forward to the next three instalments (well, at least two of them!)

[dod]

I’ve said it before. I like your thought process. All very true

Looking forward to the next three instalments (well, at least two of them!)

Thanks SP . Part 2 coming soon.

[Patrician]

I am looking forward to all of these!


SLS, So Last Season. Jumps on players just as they start going out of fashion and stop scoring points. I am guilty!

[dod]

The Menagerie of FPL Managers Part 2

The Smart Casual - As the name suggests the Smart Casual is too cool for school and doesn't want to be seen as an FPL nerd. Nonetheless he doesn't want to be part of The Great Unwashed either. His motto is "Work smarter not harder". He cares about winning his office mini-league but doesn't want to be seen to care. He might not have read the rules but he knows others have and he knows where to find their advice.

SCs watch the videos in the Scout section of the FPL official site. They are also probably aware of FFS and check the weekly scout picks. They are unlikely to be members or post however, and though they may be aware of FPLstats they don't usually worry about price changes. Their ambition is to win their mini-leagues, and any success they achieve they will attribute to their footballing knowledge rather than having found an online resource that is helping them with their game.

What sort of players do SCs pick? Well its a mixture of TGU picks, and template FFS and The Scout picks. They are less likely to be dead teams than the TGUs, and they will actively use their transfers, so their choices are more prone to volatility in price. Beware of owning too many SC players that are not also popular among the TGU.

The Smart Casual is a rapidly growing subset of managers and that is making the game increasingly difficult if you are playing for a high rank or to win your mini-leagues. They are less of a problem if you are playing to win outright however. While perfectly capable of getting a decently high ranking they simply don't spend enough time on the game to stand much chance of winning FPL.

There are many who bemoan what they see as the 'spoon-feeding' that has led to the rise of the Smart Casual. To those I say "Stop whining!" If you can't beat someone who spends half an hour a week on their team the problem isn't them but you .

[dod]

The Menagerie of FPL Managers Part 3

The Dedicated Follower of Fashion - The DFF is the archetypal FPL nerd. He's read the rules and searched the interwebs for all the best FPL advice. He is intimately familiar with the fixture list and with FPLstats and the members section of FFS. He may even be reading this . He knows who the good managers are and he watches them on YouTube and listens to their podcasts and he joins in forum discussions and posts RMTs and says "Never take a hit for a defender" or "Kane is always rubbish in August!" and lots of other things that he knows are true because everybody who knows anything knows these things .

FPL is important to the DFF. When he has a bad GW he is depressed, and when he has a good one he is insufferable . He hangs on every word of advice from his chosen FPL heroes and mocks those who deign to deviate from 'The True Path'. He also, with not a smidgeon of self-awareness or irony, hates spoon-fed Smart Casuals .

The DFF is usually a force to be reckoned with in FPL and dominates the upper echelons of the rankings. This is because he is mostly getting his advice from good players. Occasionally he will dabble with a left-field differential player pick, or taking a -8 hit, but will usually calm himself down with a cold shower and a nice cup of tea and leave that sort of insanity to someone else.

What sort of player do DFFs pick? Why the ones who are currently fashionable of course . Bandwagons are for jumping on! Snoozers are losers! Some of these picks are great but beware of having too many in your team at once. DFFs are active players. They will watch the price changes and make transfers at odd times. If your flavour-of-the-week pick doesn't work out he will quickly be shown the door and his price will plummet. That's not such a problem if you were in the first wave of purchasers and enjoyed the price rise but if you buy at the top of the market you can ditch a lot of your budget on these players. Then you have not just bought a player who has flopped but also one who is shedding value like a leper on a pogo stick. Meanwhile the DFF has banked his 0.1m profit and bought the next shiny thing FFS has waved in front of him.

In the immortal words of Ray Davies -
"Oh yes he is (oh yes he is), oh yes he is (oh yes he is)
He flits from shop to shop just like a butterfly
In matters of the cloth he is as fickle as can be
'Cause he's a dedicated follower of fashion"

[Ironfist]

This might be considered overall silly, but it's the freshest bit of writing I have seen here in a very long while.
Very enjoyable and entertaining.
Kudos.

[dod]

Glad you like it Ironfist. You are quite right; sweeping generalisations are usually more than a bit silly .

The Menagerie of FPL Managers Part 4

Fops and Dandies - We conclude our zoological tour of ... well us ... with a couple of rare breeds. Fops and dandies (FADs) do not follow FPL fashion, but rather, they set it. They are the ones that push the boundaries of established FPL theory. They develop player performance charts to try to explain why Raheem Sterling never scores in an away match following a Champions League game, or try to work out how the price change algorithm works. They analyse the fixture list and ask whether it is better to own Vardy when he is playing at home vs. Huddersfield or away to Man City? They play their Bench Boost in GW1, or Triple Captain a Burnley defender. They do not care if others scoff or mock, and they laugh in the face of dogma and convention. In short, they are the people you really don't want to sit next to you on the bus.

The Fop and the Dandy are indistinguishable from each other except for the fact that one of them is an inspired genius, while the other is dangerously delusional and shouldn't be allowed near anything sharp. Which is which is for you to determine. Which one is Einstein and which one is his evil twin? One will impart great wisdom while the other will convince you that the Earth is flat and sell you a timeshare in Aleppo.

FADs are both the most and least important species in the FPL zoo. "Most" because they advance the theory of the game. "Least" because they are the most likely to simply be wrong.

What type of players do FADs like to own? Who knows? Who cares? There is not enough of them to effect the market and while the best of them may occupy the highest echelons of the rankings they are more likely to find a way to shoot themselves, not only in the foot, but repeatedly in the back of the head with a crossbow. All you can hope to do is select their fashion tips wisely. By all means try on the Gibson pink check double breasted suit, but do eschew the 12 inch platform soled trainers and the purple latex pantaloons.

That completes our tour of the FPL zoo. Of course you may not think you fit into any of these categories, or you may fit into more than one. I only came up with these categories in order to help me understand why some players keep their value in FPL while others fluctuate wildly. I have found it useful for that purpose alone. Maybe one of you FADs out there can come up with another use, and I'm sure you will find many more categories. Good luck this GW .

[Stemania]

Cracking.

[Oxford NZ]

Thanks for the entertaining read Dod
Onz wondering away ( with the sound of a Ray Davis song in his head) to look for a bandwagon to follow and wondering why he has never had the urge to watch a podcast

[TheRumourMill]

Absolutely superb stuff! Found myself amused and nodding along with a lot of what you have spotted amongst FPL players, and also slightly embarrassed to spot a few of these traits in myself (especially in the DFF section)! I'm well prepared now if I ever end up as a zoo exhibit lol.

[dod]

It may seem churlish to regard my 103 pts and highest score of the season as a failure but I was hoping for better from my FH . Captaining my lowest scoring player didn't help and Kane's DGW flop particularly hurt as my main ML rival owned Eriksen and Son.

I look fine for this GW though and will roll the FT.

Schmeichel (hud)

Robertson (sou) van Dijk (sou) Pereira (hud) Digne (ARS)

Fraser (BUR) Brooks (BUR) Hazard (WHU) (C) Mane (sou) (VC)

Wilson (BUR) Rondon (CRY)

[From4corners]

Hope you'll have a great gameweek (from VVD, Hazard and Fraser only )

I Just arrived in London again and had this page open as reading material on the plane - fabulous! Made my flight even more enjoyable (having also two empty seats next to me).

[Pirlo's Beard]

Made my flight even more enjoyable (having also two empty seats next to me).

Sociopath.

[dod]

Hope you'll have a great gameweek (from VVD, Hazard and Fraser only )

I Just arrived in London again and had this page open as reading material on the plane - fabulous! Made my flight even more enjoyable (having also two empty seats next to me).

Glad you're enjoying it F4C and good luck with your FH .

[dod]

A poor GW so far . I had one player on my bench (Guaita) who's 10 pts ended up being the highest scoring in my team . After Saturday I had 21 pts from 9 players. Things improved a bit yesterday with an unexpected 8 pts from Digne . I now have only my captain Hazard left.

There are 2 mini-leagues that I actually care a bit about. One is a mates league in which I have over a 110 pt lead so I think that is pretty much wrapped up. The other is a money league where I currently have a 25 pt lead over my closest rival. He played his wildcard this GW and only beat me by 12 pts (we both only have our captain Hazard left to play). Unfortunately I have used all my chips while he still has his TC & BB left . On the plus side I have about 4m more to spend on my squad than he does.

Annoyingly I found myself 0.1m short of my ideal transfers (very much a cold spot) . I have already used my 2FTs on Kun & Schmeichel Kane & Ryan. I am considering taking a -8 to bring in Eriksen and Son for Hazard and one of my BHA mids to take advantage of Spurs' fixture at home to HUD. That will cut my lead to 17 pts but will probably be my last hit of the season, and with Spurs' excellent fixtures (albeit with poor current form and a busy schedule that may involve rotation), and with the motivation of playing in the new stadium, it could be worth it. Importantly, Winks is fit again. Although not an FPL option he is vital to getting Spurs moving forward quickly in attack. We really are pedestrian when he isn't in the team.

If I do decide to make this move the question is which BOU midfielder do I sacrifice? The choice is between Brooks and Fraser. Fraser was unlucky not to register an attacking return this GW having set up several excellent chances that BOU failed to convert. Brooks, meanwhile, was pretty anonymous. That said, selling Fraser puts another 1.2m in the kitty. I am unlikely to play either of them very often but with rotation worries they may well be needed as subs. I am most likely to use them in the next 2 GWs where they face bha & FUL. In the reverse fixtures Fraser scored 4 pts from a 25 minute cameo against BHA and got 2 assists and 11 pts at ful. Meanwhile Brooks delivered 15 pts vs BHA and 8pts at ful. I'm edging towards letting Fraser go as the extra 1.2m saved gives me more flexibility for future transfers. Personally, I think BOU are already on the beach, so I'm not expecting much anyway.

[dod]

The Hazard captaincy pick has saved my GW from being a complete disaster . Unfortunately my mini-league rival also gave him the armband. I'm rethinking my decision to take a -8. Keeping Hazard makes it harder for my opponent to close the gap and I can just do the less committal Fraser Son (-4) which still allows me to scrape in Wilson Jimenez next GW provide either Wilson doesn't fall or Jimenez doesn't rise this GW .

There is a strong possibility that both events will happen though, although with wildcards being played I may survive. If that happens I will have to take the extra hit but at least I can upgrade a defender with it.

[dod]

Kane's injury has certainly thrown a spanner in the works . What to do now?

a) I could simply bring back Aguero which would basically be taking a -8 for nothing. Obviously that is pretty unappealing but that doesn't mean I shouldn't do it. Whatever I do that -8 isn't going anywhere. The problem is I don't really want Aguero or I wouldn't have got rid of him in the first place.

b) The next option is to bring in Jimenez who I was planning on getting next GW anyway. That seems sensible although I'm not loving the idea of bringing him in for an away trip to SOU who seem to be finding a bit of form.

c) I can do nothing and simply play Wilson and bring in Jimenez next GW. On the face of it this saves -4. Or does it? The downside would be 12.5m of my budget sitting on my bench sporting a red flag. That's a lot of money to spend in a position with few options to spend it on.

d) I can bring in Llorente who in Kane's absence, may or may not get game time. Then I can do Brooks and Wilson Sterling and Jimenez (-4) next GW. In terms of hits this is the most expensive option though.

Any advice gratefully received .

[Pulpy]

B or C for me. If you decide C though play Kane. When it turns out he is fine and scores a hat trick you'll look like a genius.

[dod]

In the end I took option d) and despite taking a -8 hit, captaining a player who spent a grand total of 3 minutes on the pitch, and leaving 25 pts on my bench I appear to have got away with it . You can't beat dumb luck .

It's a shame about Son's cameo which cost me 17 pts . It's also annoying that Sterling hauled when my sole reason for choosing option d) was to be able to bring him in next GW. Nobody actually cares about 'bad beat' stories though so I'll STFU about it . Instead I thought I'd reopen the topic of 'Early Transfers'.

Early Transfers Revisited

I was "forced" into doing an early transfer this GW because it looked like I would have the exact money for doing the transfers I wanted next GW. It backfired with Kane's injury and it cost me.

I don't usually do early transfers this late in the season because the risk/reward ratio for such moves gets worse the later in the season it is. Simply put, gaining 0.1m in GW1 has 37 weeks to be useful, while doing the same in GW34 only has 3. Curiously enough I would not have found myself in this position if I had grabbed an extra easy 0.1m on a couple of the previous GWs when I applied the rule too stringently and did not bring in players before they rose in price. "A butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil and a tornado hits Texas" etc.

I have written before about budget back on pages 6-9 of this blog so I will try to avoid repeating what I said there. There is an interesting discussion to be had about how much increasing your budget helps your final points total. Even those that never make early transfers to catch price rises and avoid drops would surely agree that there must be some advantage in having a larger budget over a smaller one. It is just a matter of degree as to what that advantage is.

My personal opinion is that the extra spending power is not that significant per se. What is more important is the increased flexibility a larger budget gives you; in particular the ability to bring in players without having to make as many enabling transfers and also the increase in the player pool you are able to choose from.

The trade off is Budget vs Information. The later you wait before having to make your decisions the more information you tend to have. Ideally we would make all our transfers just before the deadline to maximise information but if we choose to do that we will pay the price of a lower budget. This means less money to spend on our squad and reduced flexibility to choose players and avoid enabling transfers.

So when should you make early transfers? The correct answer is quite simple, but banal - whenever it works . Unfortunately, for those of us lacking a crystal ball, that doesn't really help. There are a few guidelines that may be useful however:

1) Each season is different. When the big hitters are performing and there are few budget essentials then each 0.1m is more valuable than if the opposite was true.

2) Avoiding drops is more important that chasing rises because of the 50% sales tax on players who increase in value.

3) The larger your budget is the less important it is to increase it, and the smaller it is the more important it is to hold or increase what you have. This is because FPL is designed as a balanced game and most of the sweet spots for transfers are clustered around the average budget.

4) As the season progresses you should be less interested in chasing budget and more interested in gaining information as with each passing GW there are fewer opportunities for a larger budget to give you an advantage.

5) You should be less interested in increasing your budget if you have played most of your chips. In a normal GW you are making 1 or 2 transfers so your options are limited. When playing your wildcard and FH chips however a larger budget will have many more possible combinations of players available than a smaller one. The BB is also helped by a larger budget as you can afford better bench players. The TC is only minimally affected.

6) The more information there is to come the more you should favour the 'information' side of the equation. There is more risk in early transfers during an international break for example. If you have players flagged or if there is fixture congestion and you think there may be useful team news you should favour information over budget. Early in the season when teams are playing once a week and the 1st teams are fairly stable is the best time to prioritise budget.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Thanks dod, In many ways what you are saying about transfers can also be applied to my use of WC this week. I wish I had waited until after the European matches before playing my WC as I might have decided to wait given what happened in the Spurs game, but I hit the button early to make sure I caught any price rises. Of course the volume of WCs played this week meant that there were very few price changes all week.

Of course, the other side of the coin is that apart from a few snippets, managers are not giving out a lot of information v rotation which is really the big uncertainty at the moment.