Dod's Blog

[FPL_Vegan]

I’ve spent the summer reading this blog after being pointed this way by somebody on twitter. I’ve really enjoyed it and hope I’ll find what I’ve learned useful this season.

Felt compelled to make my first post to say thanks and wish you well in your recovery.

[muldoon]

Sounds like it could have been a lot worse, a broken neck and back is major, but all things considered you'll look back on it as a lucky escape.

Wishing you both a speedy and full recovery. I'm sure you're under orders to rest, so as ever I'm looking forward to the resulting analysis, insight and stories. Heal up fast and may your FPL team soar.

[Stormrider]

Dod, wishing you and your wife all the best and a good and full recovery.

[dod]

Thanks for all of the good wishes guys. Much appreciated . Just got back to Blighty last night and got checked out at a proper hospital as opposed to the decaying Warsaw Pact era gulag we ended up in in Dubrovnik. The news is good and the fractures are as mild as we could have hoped for. The wife is worse off than me but we should both make a full recovery. I wasn't planning on climbing Annapurna or learning Brazilian jiu-jitsu in the near future anyway .

[Aldershot Rejects]

Great news; glad you haven't lost your sense of humour either.

[Bobby Fetta]

All the best Dod, wishing you and your wife a speedy recovery.

[I Am Ville]

Take it easy. Dubrovnik is a beautiful place, if you don’t go throwing yourself off a cliff!. Wishing you a safe return home and a speedy recovery.

[Ironfist]

Good to hear Dod. Make an easy and full recovery asap.

BTW... some would describe British hospitals in the same manner you did...

[dod]

My FPL GW1 Squad (and how I got there) Part I

Back on page 21 of this blog I outlined my system of how to avoid a terrible FPL start. I won't reprise that here, but it emphasised price-range flexibility and a conservative 'no punt' approach to choosing a GW1 squad. The basic idea was to avoid having to put out fires and concentrate all ones early transfers on bringing in players you wanted rather than removing players you didn't.

Once I'd eliminated all the players who didn't fit this system the squad virtually picked itself. My initial draft took about 15 minutes to put together and looked incredibly similar to that of several other FISO members who had tried my system to formulate a GW1 squad. It did however look very different to most of the RMTs floating around on this site and FFS .

A spate of late injury doubts however somewhat scuppered my carefully laid plans . I also had to cope with the fact that I was unlikely to have access to FPL at the start of the season (and possibly until GW3) and so I had to make a last minute change of formation in order to accommodate these new circumstances. I don't believe these last minute changes were particularly detrimental . I mention them only because it meant that my initial squad was not as pure in sticking to my own rules as I would have liked.

This is the squad I ended up with:

Pickford 5.5 Woodman 4.0

VVD 6.5 TAA 7.0 Walker-Peters 5.0 Digne 6.0 Coleman 5.5

Salah 12.5 Fraser 7.5 Lamela 6.0 Barkley 6.0 Dendoncker 4.5

Kane 11.0 Wilson 8.0 Gallagher 4.5

0.5m ITB

As you can see this is a hybrid 5-3-2/ 4-4-2 formation. There are 3 LIV, 3 TOT, 3 EVE, 2 BOU, and zero MCI players . The 3 LIV is template and the 2 BOU is also pretty standard based on them have the best fixtures on paper over the opening two GWs.

The EVE defensive triple-up however warrants some general explanation. At the end of last season EVE demonstrated that they were capable of getting CSs. While many will have noted in pre-season that they were toothless in attack they nonetheless demonstrated a continuing parsimony in defence. The main reason though was that their fixtures for the start of the season were absolutely amazing and remained so all the way up to GW13 . As we know, defence is more fixture reliant than attack, so by locking up the 3 EVE + the 2 LIV spots that meant I could concentrate all my FTs on bringing in the attackers I wanted rather than bigger about putting out fires in my backline. It didn't matter a jot to me that I had 12pts every GW riding on whether EVE kept a CS or not as unless your main aim is to win your H2H mini-league it makes no difference if your points come in a steady trickle or as alternating droughts and monsoons .

Aren't double and triple-ups intrinsically inflexible though? Well yes, they can be. Here though they aren't. Who realistically am I going to want from any of those teams that I am not going to be able to get? Siggy or Richarlison? They might be decent options but at those prices they are not going to be must-own bargains. Firminho? Eriksen? Origi? They are already blocked by my price structure. It's enough to put the bleach in a high cupboard out of the reach of the toddlers. Putting a padlock on the door isn't going to make it significantly harder for them to drink it.

The TOT triple-up is the only other one that really needs explanation and here it is ... "I'm a Spurs fan." By this I do not mean that I am choosing Spurs' players simply because I can then enjoy watching the games more. That would be stupid and suicide for any serious FPL player. What I mean is that the only pre-season games I have watched have been those of my own team and so I have more information about them than I would about any other team. This could just as well have resulted in me picking zero Spurs' players as opposed to 3. The fact is, due to my knowledge I was 90%+ certain that all 3 of my chosen Spurs' picks were going to be in the starting XI for at least the first 2 GWs. Spurs also had a very competitive pre-season with matches against Juventus, Man Utd, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, and Inter, so I felt that the performances in these games could be taken a little more seriously than if they had been knocking 12 goals past a Vanuatu All Stars XI, or Milling Hotspurs from the Eswatini Swazi MTN Premier League.

I wanted 2 'big hitters' for captaincy purposes. I didn't like the idea of having both of my big boys in midfield as if one failed to perform there really wasn't an easy out. I wanted to be able to select one player from Sterling/Salah/Mane and one from Kun/Kane/Auba and HOHO with a single transfer when necessary.

You will note that I left 0.5m ITB. It was never in question that I would not do this. I consider using your full GW1 squad budget quite a serious theoretical error.

The important thing to remember is that my whole strategy is about being able to get to a squad I like and am happy with as quickly and as easily as possible. It is not designed to start with that squad because I have no idea what that squad will look like in a few GWs time. I know from experience that if I just pick the players I like and want, then more likely than not I'm going to get my fingers burned. That's because I am a typical FPL manager and I don't know as much as I think I do . There are only 2 categories of FPL managers:

1/ Those who don't know as much as they think they do.
2/ Those who don't even know that.

In Part II I will discuss the individual player choices where we learn I can't even stick to the rules I make up for myself .

[dod]

My FPL GW1 Squad (and how I got there) Part II

Pickford - Why pay 5.5m for a GK when there are so many good 4.5m GKs available? The problem was I didn't know which 4.5m GK I wanted. Pope was the obvious choice but was an injury doubt for GW1. Henderson, Heaton and Ryan were also tempting options. EVE have been defensively sound for some time now and have by far the best opening fixture run. With not knowing how VAR will effect the number of penalties awarded in the premier league this season it seemed sage to cover myself with probably the best penalty saving GK in the league. The time for choosing a GK is on the 1st wildcard. Pickford will leave for a 4.5m option then.

Woodman - Hoping to pick a 4.0m GK who will just happen to be playing when your 1st choice is injured is a total pipe dream unless they are the direct back-up to your 1st choice. The number of managers who have selected Button when they don't own Ryan absolutely baffles me. The job of a sub GK is to not block a space from a team you may possibly want 3 players from, and to not lose you budget. A low ownership player who is red-flagged and will not play all season will not lose you any budget. You can safely keep them in your squad until you activate your BB chip in GW30-something.

VVD - A nailed defender from the 2nd best defence in the league, who also has decent attacking threat which I predict will only increase as VAR reduces the amount of holding at set-pieces. It also helps that he is 0.5m cheaper than the FBs.

TAA - Last season I went for the more nailed Robertson but at this stage of the season I feel that TAA is the clearly superior pick as rotation is less of a factor and TAA's points per match are better.

Walker-Peters - The most attacking of all Spurs defenders and available at a knock down price of 5.0m. That's 1.0m less than he is worth IMO provided he is a regular starter. That's a big proviso though. I dabbled with KWP last season and it was a disaster because Poch simply didn't play him. The difference this season is that he is the only available RB. Trippier has left, Aurier is an idiot that Poch is desperate to sell, and Foyth is crocked and not really a RB anyway. The position is KWPs if he takes his opportunity. He has shown in the past that if he does play he has the ability to haul big.

Digne - Those fixtures. Those stats . What's not to like?

Coleman - The last defensive slot was a flip between Coleman, Zinchenko, Stones and Mina. I went for what I thought was the most nailed candidate.

Salah - In hindsight it seems almost incomprehensible to me that I choose Salah over Sterling for my GW1 squad . Putting aside the irrelevant fact that he has constantly trolled me, in general the only reason for choosing Salah over Sterling is security of starts during a fixture congestion period. Sterling on the other hand is one of my favourite FPL picks and I particularly like his predictability. He is excellent against mid-table sides and poor against the top defences. Given that Salah costs 0.5m more than Sterling why then did I pick him?

The first reason is that if I made the wrong pick it is far easier to bring in Sterling for Salah than vice versa as Salah is the more expensive. If your eyes just floated over that statement and your spidey-sense wasn't triggered go back and re-read what I just wrote. I chose Salah because he cost more . What a !"£$%^&* idiot!

The second reason was that I preferred Salah's first two fixtures (NOR, sou) to Sterling's (whm, TOT). Even in hindsight I prefer them but when you take into account the near inevitable transfer involved to bring in the player I actually wanted that preference disappears. What actually put me off was that Sterling faced my own club Spurs in GW2 and I would be loathe to captain him for that.

What really irritates me is that I broke one of my own golden rules in choosing Salah - "Exclude any player who was involved in international competition over the summer and has not had a full pre-season." Ignoring my own advice has effectively cost me 26pts and I have no one but myself to blame. Karma's a bitch .

Fraser - Fraser or Martial? Fraser or Martial? I couldn't decide in all honesty. I made the wrong choice in the end but not due to any bias or bad logic so I'm not going to beat myself up over it .

Lamela - Possibly Spurs' best performer in pre-season, Lamela is 7.5m lamb mislabeled as 6.0m mutton. More nailed that Moura (if not as potentially explosive) Erik has gone under the radar and started in less than 1% of teams. He should continue to play a role, at least until Dele is fit again, either on the wing or in Dele's No.10 position. The downside is the injury record that has blighted his career. Erik has the aggression of a honey badger on PCP but the fragility of a soap bubble with progeria. It's not a happy combination but I'm hoping he lasts long enough into the season for his replacement to become obvious.

Barkley - The second occasion on which I have broken my own rules . Barkley is the epitome of a 'punt'. There's nothing worse than a GW1 FPL pick that fails to start. He's already dropped 0.1m and if he doesn't start next GW I'm going to have to waste a transfer getting him out before he haemorrhages yet more of my budget away . A stupid pick that I am being justly punished for by the angry FPL gods.

Kane - A fit and in form Kane is a joy to behold. A tired or injured one is like watching a former champion boxer reduced to a punch-drunk journeyman, or an octogenarian stripper desperately attempting to recapture the magic of past glories. Even when winning the Golden Boot at the last World Cup Harry was a long way short of his best but last season he was reduced to doing Christian Benteke impersonations. From what I saw in pre-season however the wind of change may well become a Harry Kane.

Wilson Callum had a very nice fixtures for the first 2 GWs. As I knew I would be returning to 2FTs in GW3 he seemed a sensible enough choice who wasn't going to drop in price before I could do anything to prevent it.

Gallagher - See Woodman. Just a safe place to park my 4.5m until I wildcard.

So how did it go? Not terribly (which after all was the plan). GW1 provided 78 pts and an OR of 1.2m. GW2 gave me 54 pts and a rise to 480k. I took a -4 to turn my 2FTs into a mini-wildcard with Salah + Wilson + Fraser Sterling + KDB + Pukki and caught all the rises. I quite like the look of how my team is evolving and am nowhere near needing to use my wildcard.

I'm happy enough so far but also aware that if I had stuck to my own rules I would be extremely happy. Ah well ... another lesson learned .

[dod]

"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."

This famous Mike Tyson quote pretty much summed up my GW3.

Going in to the GW I was fairly happy with my team. I had taken a -4 to do a mini-wildcard and replace Salah, Fraser and Wilson with Sterling, Pukki and KDB. This actually worked out okay given the fact that I would have otherwise captained Kane instead of Sterling. The net result was +4 pts and +0.4m TV. My only really pressing need was to get rid of Barkley. Some of my mini-league rivals had wildcarded to get squads quite similar to what I already owned. True, I would have liked to have garnered a few more points but overall I wasn't hating my team.

GW3 however came with a data dump of new information .

1/ The much anticipated gold rush of penalties due to VAR now appears as likely as a Brexit windfall for the NHS . I was always slightly sceptical but the "clear and obvious" interpretation seems to mean that anything short of manslaughter that wasn't given by the referee on the pitch will not be given by the referee off of it.

2/ I watched AVL v EVE - my first opportunity to see any premier league football this season - and the EVE defence did not pass the eye-test which rather confirmed what the stats were showing. The fixtures may be great but a triple-up was clearly not warranted.

3/ All the promoted sides look capable of scoring. There is unlikely to be an easy source of CSs this season.

4/ LIV are playing a higher line and Adrian is no Alisson. This puts a question mark over a LIV defensive double-up.

5/ TOT were awful. Without Ndombele and Eriksen they didn't seem to know what they were trying to do. The old problem of struggling to break down teams who park the bus re-emerged. They looked set-up to counter-attack against a team camped in their own penalty box . The midfield is anyone's guess as to who starts and will probably suffer from rotation. The only attractively priced defender (KWP) went off with a hammy and Kane received zero service. If Eriksen leaves this window there is no one who can provide that service. I had 3 Spurs players in my squad. It pains me to say it but currently the optimum number is zero .

Given what I have written in this blog about the 1st wildcard my decision to activate it was a no-brainer. Nobody wants to play a T0 but it is the most effective use of the wildcard. It helps that it falls in the GW4 GW8 "Goldilocks Zone."

Looking at the provisional team I have put together I do feel that I may have gotten lucky with the timing. It does look very sexy . It may not even survive this week's EFL Cup matches but for now at least, of all the starting, wildcard, and free hit squads I have ever assembled this is my favourite.

I almost feel a twinge of pity for all those poor saps who wildcarded last GW . Of course we all know how this is likely to end . Next GW I will be looking enviously at the beautiful teams put together by GW5 wildcarders as I realise that my broken Faberge egg of a team was actually made of paste and held together with chewing gum. And then it will be the turn of GW6 wildcarders to experience their brief moment of hope and joy, for he who laughs last has not yet heard the terrible news.

[Ironfist]

...
...
I almost feel a twinge of pity for all those poor saps who wildcarded last GW . Of course we all know how this is likely to end . Next GW I will be looking enviously at the beautiful teams put together by GW5 wildcarders as I realise that my broken Faberge egg of a team was actually made of paste and held together with chewing gum. And then it will be the turn of GW6 wildcarders to experience their brief moment of hope and joy, for he who laughs last has not yet heard the terrible news.

silly 4.jpg

[dod]

This is my current wildcard draft:

Pope Stekelenburg

TAA Digne Zinchenko Lundstrom Kelly

Salah Sterling KDB Martial Cantwell

Pukki Haller Nketiah

I like it a lot more than I usually do when I wildcard. It seems balanced and even the defensive makeweights are from defensive teams. The one issue I have is that it leaves exactly zilch ITB.

There is a possibility that Martial is injured. That would actually suit me as I think there are better options for the next couple of GWs but I do want him long term if he remains OOP. His price might even fall which would give me a tiny bit of breathing space in my budget.

Any suggestions for improvements or potential pitfalls I have missed?

[Beerfuelledman]

For me, Button is at least 2nd choice. After the signing of Lossl Stekelenberg could be 3rd choice.
As Nketiah has went on loan to Leeds why not go for a Wickham or a Greenwood - at least you'll get 1pt for a 5 min appearance - Nketiah wont get any.

[mikeg13]

Nketiah is at Leeds as far as aware for the season

[raoul]

This is my current wildcard draft:

Pope Stekelenburg

TAA Digne Zinchenko Lundstrom Kelly

Salah Sterling KDB Martial Cantwell

Pukki Haller Nketiah

I like it a lot more than I usually do when I wildcard. It seems balanced and even the defensive makeweights are from defensive teams. The one issue I have is that it leaves exactly zilch ITB.

There is a possibility that Martial is injured. That would actually suit me as I think there are better options for the next couple of GWs but I do want him long term if he remains OOP. His price might even fall which would give me a tiny bit of breathing space in my budget.

Any suggestions for improvements or potential pitfalls I have missed?

I have just had to change a forward and was looking at the 7m-ish price range. I went Abraham ahead of Haller. Both have just got goals, but Chelsea over West Ham for me, and he is cheaper. If you had Mount then I might suggest a double up on Chelsea is a bit premature, but given you haven't...

[raoul]

Nketiah is at Leeds as far as aware for the season

he'll have done that on purpose. Nketiah won't fall as anyone who would have sold him will already have done so. Safe budget-holder

[dod]

For me, Button is at least 2nd choice. After the signing of Lossl Stekelenberg could be 3rd choice.
As Nketiah has went on loan to Leeds why not go for a Wickham or a Greenwood - at least you'll get 1pt for a 5 min appearance - Nketiah wont get any.

The job of the 2nd GK is simply to not lose any budget. The chances of my first choice GK being injured and Ryan simultaneously being injured and Button coming in to score points are incredibly small. On the other hand the chance of Button losing budget if a playing 4.0 GK emerges are quite high. Button has 25.5% ownership and will get plenty more from active wildcarders. Stek has 9% ownership and is 17.4% towards rising compared to Button's 3.3%. He's just much less likely to lose value.

The same logic applies towards Nketiah only even more so. He's already dropped to 4.4m and as the lowest priced attacker carrying a red flag there is simply no way he will drop again. Greenwood or Wickham however are very likely to. Every 0.1m I lose id 0.1m off my BB team when I will want 15 players. I can only remember one GW outside of BGWs where I have used my 3rd sub in over 5 seasons of playing FPL so I'm willing to risk losing that 1 pt if it happens again. More to the point though is if I was to upgrade Nketiah to Greenwood I would be 0.1m short of owning this team.

[dod]

raoul wrote:

I have just had to change a forward and was looking at the 7m-ish price range. I went Abraham ahead of Haller. Both have just got goals, but Chelsea over West Ham for me, and he is cheaper. If you had Mount then I might suggest a double up on Chelsea is a bit premature, but given you haven't...

Haller is nailed and has nice fixtures. Abraham ... not so much.

Every time I go near a Chelsea player I seem to get my finger's burned . I'm sure that some great options will emerge among the CHE players but I will be arriving at that particular party fashionably late .

[Stu255]

Glad you are recovering from your accident dod.

A few years ago I hit black ice at 70mph on the motorway heading south of Glasgow with my two children (aged 3 and 4) in the back seat. We slid into the verge and rolled many, many times but were all OK and we walked away in some kind of bizarre miracle.

Years later my mind often returns to that moment and the total loss of control. At first this was a scary memory but now it is a cherished reminder of how fortunate I am.

[Smurphy Paw]

Nice words Stu

Dod, I have a Mo Salah and a No-Salah draft vying for my favour this wildcard.
Should I go with Mo it’ll look very similar to your proposed team. Probably with Greenwood, who I’d expect to get minutes if Martial is injured. I follow the logic though.
I’ve just written elsewhere that Zinchenko is my other doubt. Setting up for the long haul I don’t want to have to find £1m for Laporte if Zinchenko loses his place (which brings Martial//Mount or Haller//Barnes in to play).

The No-Salah team is much more exciting. Can excitement in FPL be overrated?

[dino1980]

@Dod After taking a -4 this week (WC still intact) I have 8 of 9 of the same expensive players as you, with Bilva instead of KDB, so I am bound to say I like it.
I guess one minor issue is that Kelly may we’ll lose his place soon when Sakho is back and that would leave you with one playing sub only. Although who knows, you may have money in the bank by that point to be able to upgrade him.
As long as you’re happy with a Lundstram and Cantwell rotation for your 11th outfielder then I don’t see the issue (I haven’t checked that rotation tbh).
Apart from a Martial to Maddison/Mount move I guess the easiest place to pinch funds in that set-up either now, or later, would be a Pukki or Haller downgrade to Barnes or a.n.other 6.5m FWD.

[dod]

Nice words Stu

Dod, I have a Mo Salah and a No-Salah draft vying for my favour this wildcard.
Should I go with Mo it’ll look very similar to your proposed team. Probably with Greenwood, who I’d expect to get minutes if Martial is injured. I follow the logic though.
I’ve just written elsewhere that Zinchenko is my other doubt. Setting up for the long haul I don’t want to have to find £1m for Laporte if Zinchenko loses his place (which brings Martial//Mount or Haller//Barnes in to play).

The No-Salah team is much more exciting. Can excitement in FPL be overrated?

I also have a no-Salah team . Ultra-flexible and it looks like a lot of fun to play relying on me HOHOing according to form and fixtures. Played well it could easily outscore my boring Salah team.

Therein lies the rub . If I was Stemania or Joccki I would absolutely go for it . Unfortunately my player picking skills are the weakest part of my game so it makes sense for me to minimise my reliance on them. It's therefore the boring Salah team for me . With your record I'd probably feel justified in going for the exciting option but that's your decision to make.

[dod]

@Dod After taking a -4 this week (WC still intact) I have 8 of 9 of the same expensive players as you, with Bilva instead of KDB, so I am bound to say I like it.
I guess one minor issue is that Kelly may we’ll lose his place soon when Sakho is back and that would leave you with one playing sub only. Although who knows, you may have money in the bank by that point to be able to upgrade him.
As long as you’re happy with a Lundstram and Cantwell rotation for your 11th outfielder then I don’t see the issue (I haven’t checked that rotation tbh).
Apart from a Martial to Maddison/Mount move I guess the easiest place to pinch funds in that set-up either now, or later, would be a Pukki or Haller downgrade to Barnes or a.n.other 6.5m FWD.

I'm not too worried about Kelly as a 4.0 starting defender is bound to emerge and this line-up doesn't look particularly transfer hungry. I'm fine with a Lundstram/Cantwell rotation for 1st sub. I like my cheap defenders to be from teams that defend and my cheap attackers from teams that attack so I'm more than satisfied with those two .

Looking at your squad I wouldn't be anywhere near wildcarding either. It's a strange optical illusion that after you take a hit this coming GW we will be on the same points and I will have the more valuable squad . It looks like your team should be miles ahead of mine. You, of course, still have your wildcard though.

[Pirlo's Beard]

We slid into the verge and rolled many, many times but were all OK and we walked away in some kind of bizarre miracle.

Well of course you walked away without a scratch, you're MacGyver.

[dod]

Glad you are recovering from your accident dod.

A few years ago I hit black ice at 70mph on the motorway heading south of Glasgow with my two children (aged 3 and 4) in the back seat. We slid into the verge and rolled many, many times but were all OK and we walked away in some kind of bizarre miracle.

Years later my mind often returns to that moment and the total loss of control. At first this was a scary memory but now it is a cherished reminder of how fortunate I am.

Thanks for your kind words Stu .

Since the accident a lot of people have mentioned how lucky we are to still be alive. Some have even implied agency was involved and that some sort of lesson should be learned from our experience.

I don't see it that way. I prefer my luck to come in the form of lottery wins, jammy hat-tricks for the captain who I forgot to change from the last GW, or even just the everyday good fortune of not being driven over a cliff . I'll gladly eschew any "luck" that involves whiplash and agonising lower back pain. For me the only lesson to be learned is to always wear a seatbelt.

My attitude to the whole incident is basically - Could have died. Didn't. Move on.

My wife was pretty shook up by it though and has had a few nightmares . I'm pretty sure I'm not going to have bad dreams because I never did on the previous occasions when I have come close to shuffling off this mortal coil. This latest incident probably comes in at no.4 on the list of close calls, displacing the time when as a 13 year old I attempted to make nitroglycerin in my grandparent's back garden using ingredients I had "borrowed" from the school chemistry lab. It was a hot summer's day so I went inside for a glass of water and upon my return was surprised to find we no longer owned a coal bunker.

Everybody processes these things in their own way. It's good that you have found a positive way of dealing with your experience. Here's hoping that your luck remains quotidian rather than miraculous .

[SirMattBugsby]

Move over Bruce Willis. Dod has arrived. "At it since 13"

[Ironfist]

Move over Bruce Willis. Dod has arrived. "At it since 13"

... and with more hair!

[raoul]

am now expecting the top 3 incidents to include at least one involving a standoff with guns at a backgammon tournament.

[dino1980]

@Dod After taking a -4 this week (WC still intact) I have 8 of 9 of the same expensive players as you, with Bilva instead of KDB, so I am bound to say I like it.
I guess one minor issue is that Kelly may we’ll lose his place soon when Sakho is back and that would leave you with one playing sub only. Although who knows, you may have money in the bank by that point to be able to upgrade him.
As long as you’re happy with a Lundstram and Cantwell rotation for your 11th outfielder then I don’t see the issue (I haven’t checked that rotation tbh).
Apart from a Martial to Maddison/Mount move I guess the easiest place to pinch funds in that set-up either now, or later, would be a Pukki or Haller downgrade to Barnes or a.n.other 6.5m FWD.

I'm not too worried about Kelly as a 4.0 starting defender is bound to emerge and this line-up doesn't look particularly transfer hungry. I'm fine with a Lundstram/Cantwell rotation for 1st sub. I like my cheap defenders to be from teams that defend and my cheap attackers from teams that attack so I'm more than satisfied with those two .

Looking at your squad I wouldn't be anywhere near wildcarding either. It's a strange optical illusion that after you take a hit this coming GW we will be on the same points and I will have the more valuable squad . It looks like your team should be miles ahead of mine. You, of course, still have your wildcard though.

You’re not wrong, I just tried to get your exact wildcard team and i’m 0.8m short!
Also equally sobering and encouraging to realise that at this stage of the season a -4 is effectively a 225k rank drop.