Dod's Blog

[Sutter Kane]

Getting a good start is a necessity to win the damn thing. A quick look at status after GW9 said 1 in Top10 had a rank above 20K (above 100k actually), and rest was below 20k.
How are we most likely to obtain a 20K good rank by GW9 is a interesting question and perhaps easier to answer than how to win?

I was 928th at GW11. I was convinced based on previous season's data, that I'd finish top 500 because of a ridiculously lucky start. Now 14k. I do agree you need an excellent start to win though.

https://fplreview.com/season-review/
Yeah I'm not a huge fan of this site. Just too many variables to get an accurate picture. You know that the guys near the top will automatically have a high serendipity factor because you simply can't get there without it.

I was very happy with my opening strategy this season. It was made easier by having so many players involved in the latter stages of the World Cup but even so I will be trying the same strategy next season.

What strategy was that? I very rarely get a good start so am genuinely interested. I think F.Borges (one of the FFS HOFers) seems excellent at nailing the start.

[Sutter Kane]

There are several broad approaches:

1/ Have a core of big hitters and use your FHs to shuffle the cheaper players according to form and fixtures.

2/ Have a core of cheap value players and shuffle the big hitters.

3/ Have a core of trusted players across the price brackets and shuffle players around them.

4/ Have a core defence and shuffle the attackers.

5/ Have a core attack and shuffle the defence.

6/ Just swap out the player with the worst current form.

7/ Have a consistent team structure and only move between players at the same position and price point.

8/ Follow the fixtures and replace players who have bad fixtures with those that have good ones irrespective of position or price point.

9/ No plan; just wing it .

10/ A mixed strategy. Let the team evolve.

Ooh I like this discussion. Lots of managers follow 7) and/or 8). I think after first WC, number 1) might be best for high rank but not for winning it. Predicting when big players have spurts of form is too tough. There is something missing from that list and that is, plan ahead, sometimes too far ahead!

[hancockjr]

If a core of Fabianski, Robertson, VVD, Salah, Sterling, Hazard, Aguero was used this season, never transferred out, captaining Salah every time he played a bottom half team and Aguero or Hazard or Sterling in the other weeks (whichever had a bottom 10 fixture), you would be in a very good place now.

Throw in AWB and Jimenez, Doherty and Fraser from the start (or asap if they were missed) and base price to fill the squad, and it is affordable and I reckon it puts you 2nd overall at the moment (assuming a reasonable return from TC and BB).

The core is critical. Get it right and never let go of it (other than short term transfers for injuries, with the core immediately restored when fit again).

I think I am at risk of worrying too much about specific players instead of the methodology. It doesn't have to be the specific players mentioned above - just a solid core and keep it.

I also think we feel forced to use a FT when we should be more willing to let it pass.

Is that core affordable? Seems pretty pricey to me.

[TheRumourMill]

Love these theory posts, here's my contribution to the experiment!

Robertson: A success, I'll be pretty much at his average as he's been in my squad every gameweek bar one. A superb value asset.

VVD: Not owned him once all season, not sure whether this qualifies as better or worse than just owning him when he's been underperforming, for example. I'll leave that for Dod to judge!

TAA: This is definately a disaster of underperformance. Didn't own him for the first 8 weeks (had Robbo instead). Then wildcarded GW9 and tried to be too clever in terms of extracting value from the squad and bought in TAA for Robbo. TAA was immediately dropped. Realised my mistake and immediately bought back in Robbo for TAA, but this cost me 0.3. Later on in the season I bought in TAA around GW30 for the blanks and he was awful, about the only time in the season Liverpool started consistently conceding. I then wildcarded him out in GW34, just in time for him to start performing again. I must have got on average about 1.5 ppg out of him compared to his average which must be up around 5ppg. Dreadful.

Laporte: A mixed bag. Have owned him recently and he's performed very well for me in weeks 32, 34-present. However i did own him earlier in the season when he blanked 6 games in a row so this will drag it down. I imagine overall I'll be around his season average.

Salah: In my GW1 team and owned up until the week before the 1st merseyside derby whenever that was, GW14 ish? Then bought him back about gw 18 and owned until GW33. Not owned since. I might be a touch below his average.

Hazard: Jesus christ, this guy. Where to start? Didn't own early on owing to world cup. Bought him in GW6ish so missed his 20 pointer a week before. did ok for a couple of weeks for me then he was awful and blanked about 5 weeks in a row so i ditched him before he played man city. Obviously he immediately scored 9 points and went on a run of hauls so I bought him in for an easy home game against southampton in which he blanked. He then proceeded to blank for another 5 weeks for me so I ditched him so I could bring in sane and captain him for DGW25. Sane scored 1 point across the gameweek and Hazard got 15 in his single fixture. I then Got Hazard back in GW31 for another blank and then finally, finally i got points out of him in gw32 and gw33. He was then removed on wildcard in gw34 and I got him back for a captaincy last week which went well. Overall though an unmitigated disaster and a real case study in how if you own Hazard you have to stick with him! the most FICKLE player in FPL history.

Sterling: I have a feeling this has gone reasonably well. Didnt own him gw1-8 but bought in on wildcard gw9 for a run of good scores and he was very useful as a huge captaincy differential on a couple of occasions. He was purged when city turned to utter shite for a few weeks in december which didnt hurt me too much but the pain came in gw25 and gw26 as a non owner. He was bought back and captined in gw29 (rubbish) and GW30 (roaring success). Had him for blank in gw32 fh but havent had him since. He will be returning this weekend though. I think i'll be around his average.

Mane: in my gw1 team and held until gw8 for a run of decent returns. He then went from my team so i missed his autumn - winter slump which was good, but was too slow to bring him back in in spring so missed a lot of his recent returns. He was my TC in gw 36 though which was a success. Still own him. Overall I'd say again around his average.

Aguero: Single handedly cost me a high finish. Started the season thinking he and Jesus were going to share gametime like they did the previous season but it turned out this was not the case so missed his huge gw2 score. He was bought in for a run of solid if unspectacular returns gw 3-7 before being ditched in favour of sterling. this worked out pretty well as i dont think he was particularly effective in this phase the season and then he got injured anyway so no problem. But then GW25/26 came and i missed the obvious auba to aguero transfer so missed out on 40-80 points depending on captaincy here. He then continued to perform and i didnt have him over the following weeks. had him on gw32 fh and in gw34wc and ever since. im certainly below his season average.

Aubameyang: And i thought Hazard was fickle.... Owned him gw1-3 for 2,2,2. So then missed his good points from gw 3 to 14. Was bought in gw15 and he did ok for me over a number of weeks but then really tailed off from gw25 onwards. In hindsight this is where i should have switched to Aguero. It was brutally punished though due to the fact that not only was aguero permorming but Auba started picking up illnesses and injuries and was a victim of emery's rotation multiple times. This will have really dragged down my score while owning him to below his average.

Jimenez: this one is simple, not owned until the gw32 fh and then from gw34 until present (for all the blanks of course). Again, below average.

Vardy: Interesting case, I owned him from gw8 until gw14 and im sure in this time he got me 4 blanks and 3x8 pointers which was ok but a little below par. Then owned him again from rogers first game onwards until gw33 and i think he returned every game, in 2 cases for double point hauls. Was ditched on gw34 wc. I may actually have scored higher from him than his season average!!

In conclusion then, 1 player i think I've positively up on, 4 where i'm about par, and 7 where I'm below. Pretty poor really. The interesting parts will be seeing how close my perception is to reality, and more importantly, debating how to improve this aspect of my game! It appears there is an awful lot of scope for improvement.

That said, with just 2 very minor improvements to my play this season - i.e. owning Aguero against huddersfield and in gw 25/26, I'd be in the top 10k. That gives me a lot of heart! That also may back up though one of Dod's earlier posts that the current standard of FPL play is poor overall and there is a lot of scope for improvement from all of us

[Bobby Fetta]

In conclusion then, 1 player i think I've positively up on, 4 where i'm about par, and 7 where I'm below. Pretty poor really. The interesting parts will be seeing how close my perception is to reality, and more importantly, debating how to improve this aspect of my game! It appears there is an awful lot of scope for improvement.

Here you go TRM, generally you are pretty close but maybe a bit overly negative about how things have gone. In my experience that is not unusual!

[dod]

Getting a good start is a necessity to win the damn thing. A quick look at status after GW9 said 1 in Top10 had a rank above 20K (above 100k actually), and rest was below 20k.
How are we most likely to obtain a 20K good rank by GW9 is a interesting question and perhaps easier to answer than how to win?

I was 928th at GW11. I was convinced based on previous season's data, that I'd finish top 500 because of a ridiculously lucky start. Now 14k. I do agree you need an excellent start to win though.

https://fplreview.com/season-review/
Yeah I'm not a huge fan of this site. Just too many variables to get an accurate picture. You know that the guys near the top will automatically have a high serendipity factor because you simply can't get there without it.

I was very happy with my opening strategy this season. It was made easier by having so many players involved in the latter stages of the World Cup but even so I will be trying the same strategy next season.

What strategy was that? I very rarely get a good start so am genuinely interested. I think F.Borges (one of the FFS HOFers) seems excellent at nailing the start.

That actually requires quite a long answer . I don't want to derail the current conversation yet as I think we are getting lots of useful data and opinions but I promise to do a theory post on the topic before the next season starts.

Thanks again to Bobby Fetta for his invaluable analysis .

[TheRumourMill]

In conclusion then, 1 player i think I've positively up on, 4 where i'm about par, and 7 where I'm below. Pretty poor really. The interesting parts will be seeing how close my perception is to reality, and more importantly, debating how to improve this aspect of my game! It appears there is an awful lot of scope for improvement.

Here you go TRM, generally you are pretty close but maybe a bit overly negative about how things have gone. In my experience that is not unusual!

Thanks Bobby Fetta! Pleased to see i'm so far up from Sterling and Vardy and Laporte. That was a pleasant surprise Astonished at the Aguero figure. Was utterly convinced I was way down from him. I should be directing my ire at Aubameyang it seems

What does "all other players balance" refer to? Is that how up i am from my identification of when to hop on/off other players compared to their season averages?

[raoul]

If a core of Fabianski, Robertson, VVD, Salah, Sterling, Hazard, Aguero was used this season, never transferred out, captaining Salah every time he played a bottom half team and Aguero or Hazard or Sterling in the other weeks (whichever had a bottom 10 fixture), you would be in a very good place now.

Throw in AWB and Jimenez, Doherty and Fraser from the start (or asap if they were missed) and base price to fill the squad, and it is affordable and I reckon it puts you 2nd overall at the moment (assuming a reasonable return from TC and BB).

The core is critical. Get it right and never let go of it (other than short term transfers for injuries, with the core immediately restored when fit again).

I think I am at risk of worrying too much about specific players instead of the methodology. It doesn't have to be the specific players mentioned above - just a solid core and keep it.

I also think we feel forced to use a FT when we should be more willing to let it pass.

Is that core affordable? Seems pretty pricey to me.

I don't know how much they will be next season, but I think my calcs showed that if the above core of 7 was picked plus 4.0 GK and DEF, and 4.5 MID and FWD, you end up with 20m to spend on 4 players (DEF3, DEF4, MID4, FWD2).

So yes, for this season, it was affordable. The difficulty of course is finding the Jimenez, Fraser, Doherty types early and then having the guts to keep them - although other options in these price ranges existed (maybe other than Jimenez).

Next season ... Liverpool defenders will be very expensive, and that probably means only 6 of the 7 core are attainable, but let's see.

[Aldershot Rejects]

I have a spreadsheet setup now so can do this fairly easily for other teams ...

Would be interested to see the stats for my team if it's not too much trouble.

[Bobby Fetta]

Here you go AR. You must be doing something else right to be above me in the rankings. Maybe not owning the players at the best times but still owning them more than me? And better non big 12 players too - you seem to have got solid returns from players like Wilson, Fraser, etc even if only at close to their season averages.

Something I'm thinking about with this. Selling a player who is doing well because their fixtures are about to turn (or because a lesser player has a DGW). Will try to do that less next season.

TRM - yes, the all other players balance is the same pts gained / lost calc for all the other players you've owned over the season.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Here you go AR. You must be doing something else right to be above me in the rankings. Maybe not owning the players at the best times but still owning them more than me? And better non big 12 players too - you seem to have got solid returns from players like Wilson, Fraser, etc even if only at close to their season averages.

Something I'm thinking about with this. Selling a player who is doing well because their fixtures are about to turn (or because a lesser player has a DGW). Will try to do that less next season.

I seem to be the master of getting on the right players at the wrong time which is pretty depressing.

It's been a strange season for me - firstly I had a good start but feel that I have been battling ever since - the mid-part of the season which is normally when I am strongest was very poor with a slow but steady slide down the rankings. I've pulled it back a chunk over the last 8 or 9 weeks but have probably chopped and changed my premium players too much. I've certainly tried to play the fixtures far too much this season.

[Patrician]

Can you look at mine please.

I suspect the players where I did worse that average are...

Salah (missed a couple of his biggest game weeks)
Laporte (by a big margin probably)
Vardy (had him for the first easy fixture run when he did nothing)
Son (missed his good run, was he on the list?)

The rest probably better or evens.




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[Bobby Fetta]

Can you look at mine please.

Here you go. I put in a bit more info on the other players who've had a big impact too.

Laporte is really turning out to be a pivotal player for FPL rank this season. I think there is something in this too:
- Those of us who bought him when Mendy got injured early in the season got the 6 blanks in a row. Then sold him and were conciously or subconciously put off from owning him in the DGWs and recently. Double whammy.
- People who swerved him earlier in the season didn't have the negative mental baggage about buying him on second WC so realised he was a solid pick.

[Sutter Kane]

Laporte is really turning out to be a pivotal player for FPL rank this season. I think there is something in this too:
- Those of us who bought him when Mendy got injured early in the season got the 6 blanks in a row. Then sold him and were conciously or subconciously put off from owning him in the DGWs and recently. Double whammy.
- People who swerved him earlier in the season didn't have the negative mental baggage about buying him on second WC so realised he was a solid pick.

Yeah I concur with this. I had him for that period, he was awful. Never got him again. It's not his clean sheets that have hurt though, it's those timely goals and assists that have smashed it, especially in DGWs. He was a solid pick yes but not an 8ppg pick.

[Patrician]

I haven’t had a close look, but has Laporte been playing in the left wing back position and more attacking in the recent run?


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[Bobby Fetta]

He has also become a bonus monster in recent weeks, when he wasn't at all in the first two-thirds of the season. Him regularly getting 3bps with just a CS now is remarkable in a team with the attacking talents of City. Not that I'm bitter...

I think some of the assists may have been related to playing LB but he's mainly been playing as a CB (I haven't looked at that closely). But there is no significant change in his stats.

[Sutter Kane]

That's FPL. We try to put rhyme and reason to stuff but haphazardness is rife. When you don't have a player, and they smash it, you say "but everyone would have been happy with 70% of the score they actually got over that 6 game period". That's FPL. It never rains it pours and often the route your squad takes is mostly not in your control. UNLESS you make peace with taking a fair few hits to not be a slave to happenstance. Dod, you've mentioned before your surprise that more managers don't take more hits.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Completely agree with your analysis BF. I was just wondering earlier how much that run of blanks subconsciously meant that I discounted him for the rest of the season. As you say 'double whammy.'

[Bobby Fetta]

That's FPL. We try to put rhyme and reason to stuff but haphazardness is rife. When you don't have a player, and they smash it, you say "but everyone would have been happy with 70% of the score they actually got over that 6 game period". That's FPL. It never rains it pours and often the route your squad takes is mostly not in your control. UNLESS you make peace with taking a fair few hits to not be a slave to happenstance. Dod, you've mentioned before your surprise that more managers don't take more hits.

Yeah, sorry if that came across as too negative! I was feeling pretty down about fpl the last few weeks but all the stuff I've been posting today has actually cheered me up and made me look forward to next season again. I'm finding this general discussion really useful.

[TheRumourMill]

Interesting stuff regarding Laporte, I must be one of a more select group who owned him for the run of blanks after the Mendy injury but then also went back to him on the gw32 free hit and gw34 wildcard. I guess I kept in mind the fact that the run of blanks was incredibly unfortunate and that City remained the best defensive side in the division. Must admit I've been rewarded more than I thought I would be though. I seem to remember reading something once somewhere that showed that statistically sides going for the title do tighten up the defence in the run in. Can't remember where I read it though, it may even have been 3 years ago when Leicester switched from an attacking side to a 1-0 side as they got closer to the title.

[dino1980]

Will be interesting to see whether I'm being a misery guts or whether my decisions have really been this bad!

I have a spreadsheet setup now so can do this fairly easily for other teams...

Hey Bobby, if you'd be so kind as to run it for my team that'd be very much appreciated (ID: 1666).
I suspect I'm going to come out with a positive total from the core players I've owned this season. I caught a few of Hazard's big totals, same with Aguero. I suspect I'm going to be down on Firmino though. One area in which I've had a shocker this season is with my keepers. I owned Foster (GW 1-8) and Patricio (GW9-33) and in my mind both woefully underperformed during their time in my team.

[Bobby Fetta]

Hey Bobby, if you'd be so kind as to run it for my team that'd be very much appreciated (ID: 1666).

No worries - done it now before the gw38 games mess up my calcs. You're right about your keepers - two seemingly good picks too.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Bought Laporte in just before deadline; the jinx continues.

[dod]

Bought Laporte in just before deadline; the jinx continues.

Reverse psychology?

My rival is destroying me at half-time .

[Aldershot Rejects]

Bought Laporte in just before deadline; the jinx continues.

Reverse psychology?

My rival is destroying me at half-time .

[Sutter Kane]

I think with all the discussion about Laporte and TAA, they have absolutely destroyed non-owners last few weeks and once again today. Trent is absolutely insane, 8,11,10,10,15. It's quite difficult to compete with that if you don't have him. Laporte 6,9,9,12,8 is not too far behind.

[Pulpy]

Wow that is insane from TAA, particularly so as he looked a possible rotation risk going in to the last few games. I nearly sold him at one point, very glad I didn't.

Laporte does not take corners or have anywhere near the same assist potential but has benefitted in terms of bonus from City turning into George Graham's Arsenal for a small run of games before today.

Both were always strong picks but both have over performed in the run in and will have settled many a mini league between them.

[dod]

In the end I scraped home by 5 pts in my mini-league. I had a miserable final GW while my rival got every decision right. The crucial moment came when Huddersfield equalised robbing him of 5 clean sheet pts. In the end my 12 pt lead and 4m extra budget proved just too much.

I would categorise my season as a poor one. I made a lot of mistakes, but can take some encouragement from the fact that they were either new mistakes or old mistakes that I hadn't realised were mistakes. I didn't repeat my old mistakes that I had recognised as mistakes, so at least I am learning .

I tried lots of new tactics this season, most of which failed, but not all. I'll keep the good and discard the bad. It's interesting to note that despite my attempts to maximise volatility whenever I could my deviation from the mean is probably the lowest since I've been playing the game. I didn't have a single great (top 50k) GW, and only two very good (top 100k) GWs. Nonetheless I only had three hideous GWs. I would have expected a far more polarised result given my style of play, but honestly i think this was most likely just a statistical anomaly.

My first season writing this blog has been interesting and educational for me, and I hope in some way helpful and entertaining for those who have read it. I've barely scratched the surface of the topics I'd like to discuss, especially as more keep popping up all the time. I intend to be as active on here as other commitments allow during the FPL break and am very much looking forward to season 2019/20 .

[Bobby Fetta]

Well done dod, glad you held on.

I just posted in the thread on the overall winner using my stats analysis tool for his team. I decided to run it for two other managers at the top of the FFS Hall of Fame - Fabio Borges and Sean Tobin, who both had great seasons this year. The idea being that these are genuinely brilliant FPL managers with a long track record, rather than one season flash in the pans.

Both managed to catch the big 12 players and others at the right time. I was thinking of doing a bit more analysis on Stemania, Fabio and Sean's teams (e.g. team structure, returns from different positions, etc) but will put that in STC if I do. Struggling to find time at the moment though.

[dod]

Interesting stuff BF .

So it seems that there is a direct correlation between owning the highest scoring players at the right time and for the most weeks, and a high FPL rank . Who'd have thunk it .

I suspect BF's analyses are far more useful on an individual basis to weed out biases than trying to derive some general principles from them. Of course, if anyone has derived some general principles please feel free to share .