Raoul's RMT

[phrampton534]

Maybe I had a decent squad and played it badly. But too many terrible weekly performances in a short spell so caution and wind are bedfellows.

WC activated.

Etheridge, Button
TAA, Digne, Periera, AWB, Doherty
Salah, Sane, Eriksen, Pogba, Camarasa
Aguero, Rashford, Kamara

Good team and would have done something very similar myself, not sure I'd go Pogba and Rashford but could reap rewards and easy enough to change. Got all the other bases covered except for Chelsea but Hazard is a one man team at the moment so see what happens if Higuin comes. Better keeper coverage although Button may have limited mileage when Ryan gets back and Etheridge can't keep saving penalties at the same rate (safe enough for now though).

Problem with wildcards is things change so quickly and you wish you had one every week!!

[raoul]

Thanks for the positive vibes!

I think Cardiff have reasonable fixtures but whether Etgeridge lasts I don't know. Like Dod I like Leicester stinginess but other than this week fixtures a bit rough for a while. From GW27 on the other hand a block Leicester back line is on the cards.

I like Wolves and Palace at the back but not sure on doubling up. Digne looks like a midfielder to me and Everton have decent fixtures. Almost kept Richarlison but Everton out of form.

I wanted some lower ownership options and KdB and Lukaku are interesting. But City seem to be rebounding, and Aguero is due a hot streak.

Can Utd keep it going? I think so. But let's see. Still a risk Pogba wants to play with Cristiano...

Had to have Eriksen or Kane. Spurs fixtures and form too good. Swap Eriksen and Aguero for KdB and Kane? Would need a downgrade elsewhere so for now I think the current squad stays.

Unless anyone can see a sensible switch?

[phrampton534]

Had to have Eriksen or Kane. Spurs fixtures and form too good. Swap Eriksen and Aguero for KdB and Kane? Would need a downgrade elsewhere so for now I think the current squad stays.

Unless anyone can see a sensible switch?

Could work - downgrade Pogba to Richarlison or Rashford to Jiminez? Aguero will likely score well but Kane has got the fixtures coming up. If KdB stays injury free I can see him scoring well too. If we had a crystal ball though we'd win it every year:)

[raoul]

Well I stuck.

Jimenez served me well but time to change. And Pogba too hot

[raoul]

REST OF SEASON PLAN

So, I went away and took my eye of matters FPL and the team collapsed.

So I did what I knew to be a somewhat silly thing and went for a WC this week. Could probably have got away with avoiding it, and had less time to think it through then ideal, but there you go. It is done.

Strategy?

I am hoping to keep most of this lot together till the season end, and just deal with serious injuries. The main exception is up front, where I am going to HOHO.

GK - Etheridge had a plum fixture at the weekend so why not. Plus I expect Cardiff to fight, so he should get decent save points. How long I keep him ... not sure. He is a risk, especially in away games, but as I said I expect Cardiff to fight and fight hard.

DEF - I wanted to keep Robertson but felt TAA was better value. Was going to go for a Liverpool double but the funds did not allow. Gomez maybe once fit. Also looked at doubling on Palace, or Leicester, or Wolves, but could not conclude. Wanted Digne for his attacking possibilities. Have ended up with 5 different teams and a lot of rotational possibilities. But might double up Leicester from GW27.

MID/FWD - Wanted some Man U and Tot exposure, and wanted Salah. That pretty much defined what I did. Only real choice was Kane or Eriksen. Decided on the latter, and that allowed Aguero - who I am hoping will be a differential this week at least. He is a monster at home, and does little away, so even though they have hud next week I might get rid of him.

Aiming to be patient for the rest of the season as a lot of these guys should do well over time.

Dumping Anderson felt a bit wrong, and I thought he played very well at the weekend so it was a relief he did not score. Richarlison on the other hand looks far from lethal at the moment, so he was an easy drop, despite Everton fixtures looking ok.

I hated losing Jimenez who has served me well, but I needed some bench fodder pricing to afford things elsewhere.

I am a little disappointed not to have gone more differential. Eriksen is low ownership, and I reckon a lot of Aguero owners are dead teams who had him from the start. I doubt many top teams have him at present, so hopefully he performs and hopefully I can move up a bit.

I want top 100k worst case at end of my first season. Hopefully top 50k. Will need a lot of things to go well, especially as I no longer have a WC...

[raoul]

GW22 review

70 pts.
Up 150k places to 486k in OR.

I'm averaging about 10 pts per week under target. I think focus on captain is required.

For the coming week do I go Rashford? Pogba? Salah?

Brighton and Palace have conceded similar goals totals on their travels. All 3 players on form.

Or Aguero or Sane? City less prolific away but Huddersfield generally seem to aim for 0-0. But change of manager.

Quandary.

[raoul]

And so the goalposts move. TAA injured and out for a while.

Which can mean:

- bench him and be patient, meaning either Camarasa or Kamara will have to play for me (unless I fancy AWB away at Liverpool), and then deal with it next week if need be with 2 FT available, but his price may well dip

- get him out now, leaving 5.7m replacement fund (nobody obvious leaps out at that price, although maybe Matip is now going to play, perhaps Stones stays as a starter)

- take a hit now, replacing TAA and perhaps Aguero with Robertson and Firmino

- bench him and be patient as above, and focus on Aguero to Firmino this week (or Aguero to someone who is a safe starter)

Not keen on a hit so soon after WC, but the fact is Aguero was a HOHO choice, was not 100% sure of keeping him for an away game anyway and now one wonders if he will get any game time at all, so his head was near the chopping block anyway.

[raoul]

ooooh.

Aguero and Kamara to Firmino and Llorente, would allow me to bench TAA for now and play 3 forwards...

Hmmm...

[phrampton534]

ooooh.

Aguero and Kamara to Firmino and Llorente, would allow me to bench TAA for now and play 3 forwards...

Hmmm...

For a hit?

Don't think I would - Aguero is a risk but so is Llorente (I'm not convinced he'll get Kane's slot) and Firmino is hot and cold (admittedly Kamara is total bench fodder and doesn't seem to be popular with manager or team mates!). TAA -> Shaw?? Utd aren't tight at the back but have a decent run and he may get the odd assist.

[raoul]

ooooh.

Aguero and Kamara to Firmino and Llorente, would allow me to bench TAA for now and play 3 forwards...

Hmmm...

For a hit?

Don't think I would - Aguero is a risk but so is Llorente (I'm not convinced he'll get Kane's slot) and Firmino is hot and cold (admittedly Kamara is total bench fodder and doesn't seem to be popular with manager or team mates!). TAA -> Shaw?? Utd aren't tight at the back but have a decent run and he may get the odd assist.

But it seems almost every premium forward is a risk again. And several of the £7m brigade are risks as well. Auba is almost the only current safe option.

It's a few weeks before his good run but wondering if Vardy is a risk worth taking now.

[phrampton534]

ooooh.

Aguero and Kamara to Firmino and Llorente, would allow me to bench TAA for now and play 3 forwards...

Hmmm...

For a hit?

Don't think I would - Aguero is a risk but so is Llorente (I'm not convinced he'll get Kane's slot) and Firmino is hot and cold (admittedly Kamara is total bench fodder and doesn't seem to be popular with manager or team mates!). TAA -> Shaw?? Utd aren't tight at the back but have a decent run and he may get the odd assist.

But it seems almost every premium forward is a risk again. And several of the £7m brigade are risks as well. Auba is almost the only current safe option.

It's a few weeks before his good run but wondering if Vardy is a risk worth taking now.

Agree with you on that which is why I've moved towards 5 in midfield with 2 cheaper playing forwards and one bench fodder. Might not be the correct choice (I've not got the knowledge or experience of some on here) but with Kane out, Aguero unreliable and Arsenal looking pants at the moment I'm switching my budget - undecided if I'll take a hit this week to spend the money I've freed up or save it until next week.

[raoul]

GW23 preview

Etheridge
TAA, Doherty, Digne
Salah (vc), Pogba, Eriksen, Sane, Camarasa
Aguero, Rashford (c)

Subs Pereira, Kamara, AWB, Button

Not sure about who to bench but since TAA seems unlikely to start it doesn't matter much.

Still tempted to use FT and get Aguero out, put Firmino in. Frees up useful funds as well as getting a safer starter.

But Huddersfield.

[raoul]

GW23 Review

Odd week. Defence racked up an impressive 1 point in total, midfield managed a healthy 57 and captaining Salah worked, with 10 from my 2 forwards.

68 pts
OR 434k (up 50k)

And Aguero didn't do too much, meaning my switch to Auba did not cost me too much (and to be frank Auba should scorer more from here on in I think, as he will surely play more regularly than Sergio and Arsenal goals are not shared among as many as Man City. Yes, City score more - but.

GOING FORWARD

Am wondering whether I need to pick a single differentiating player with low ownership, who has a high potential upside, in the hope of catching a big wave. My squad has fairly high ownership across the board, so unless they all perform well at once it is hard to move up much.

My defence feels too safe / spread at the moment. Am thinking a double or even treble up might make some sense? Problem is that my prime target teams for defence conceded 11 goals between them last weekend - hardly reassuring, or did they get it out of their system perhaps?

For now, I will let the cup happen and wait.

[raoul]

NAVIGATING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS

So this first FPL season remains a learning experience, and now some serious education is coming in terms of the DGW, BGW shenanigans. With my WC and BB both long gone, my chip choices are limited to a FH and a TC, and I also have to decide what to do about GW25 (if anything).

Etheridge / Button
Digne / AWB / Doherty / TAA / Pereira
Salah / Sane / Pogba / Eriksen / Camarasa
Auba / Rashford / Kamara


With one FT this week I am tempted to roll. My only concern is that if TAA does not play my bench fills very fast and there is a risk Pereira subs in, or even Kamara. And I suspect next week I will just do Salah to Sterling and not chase GW25 any further than that. And then reverse it the following week. But if I then do nothing else, i am left with a GW27 problem of benching Sane and Digne. I might get away with that.

So I am wondering whether there is an obvious opportunity to avoid the GW24 risk and replace Kamara, Pereira or TAA for someone who will actually play. I am loathe to lose TAA as he must be close to coming back, and Pereira has a nice run from GW27.

I could go Kamara to Long, or maybe Conor Wickham will get some minutes ... but it looks like it is achieving little when having 2 FT next week could prove useful.

So I think I will take the risk this week and bench Kamara and Pereira and have Camarasa as first sub, knowing he has a decent chance of playing given TAA is 50-50 at best.

GW25 - Salah to Sterling, who I will then captain I suspect. Perhaps triple. But probably not, as I think other opportunities will come later.
GW26 - Sterling back to Salah
GW27 - Digne to a second CP defender, Sane benched
GW28 - look ahead to GW 31, as by now we should know more, and I suspect I will have a MU BGW to prepare for...

Thoughts, as always, encouraged.

[skip]

TAA won’t play, but Camarasa is a good sub. I went TAA > Kolasinac because I don’t like not knowing when he will return, and Kola has a plum GW27 fixture when Liverpool are away to Utd.

Can you afford to bring Ederson in for the double, for Button?

[raoul]

TAA won’t play, but Camarasa is a good sub. I went TAA > Kolasinac because I don’t like not knowing when he will return, and Kola has a plum GW27 fixture when Liverpool are away to Utd.

Can you afford to bring Ederson in for the double, for Button?

I only have 0.4 itb so Ederson in means something has to give elsewhere. But with 2 weeks to sort it, and TAA doubts, I am tempted this week to move TAA (or perhaps Pereira, who I would bench this week) to Jonny or Tomkins, as I am planning a double up defence going forward. I suspect Palace are a safer defensive bet, but Wolves have a decent run and with Boly coming back soon should be more steady at the back.

[raoul]

Getting more and more nervous that I will not have 11 players this week, with Doherty apparently a doubt to be recalled. Add on Kamara and TAA and I have Pereira and Camarasa playing against Liverpool and Arsenal. The vast majority expect Leicester to get tonked, given the overwhelming push for Salah as captain this week, so Pereira looks a liability right now.

TAA should be back soonish and is surely good value, so I think Pereira has to go and now.

Keane for hud and the DGW? Surely Everton have to start playing better soon?

Or go cheap on Tomkins or Jonny as first planned?

[skip]

Don’t sell Pereira, everyone will be on him for GW26 and beyond. It’s good to have him now and bench.

[Aldershot Rejects]

I have TAA, Doherty and Pereira as well. I'm probably going to take the risk that Doherty starts and certainly won't be getting rid of Pereira. If Doherty doesn't start this week then I'll unload him.

[raoul]

Decided to go for it. Tomkins is in for Pereira. I may bring Pereira back some point soon, as I am not sure Digne will survive post DGW and that ties nicely with a decent Leicester fixture run, but for this week I need a defender who I am happy to field.

I have to admit I have been thinking for a while that Liverpool can now see a title in front of them, and the nerves might start to appear. Add to that the ever growing list of missing defenders (VVD as well now it seems) and there is a risk they could get turned over some time soon. I suspect the 4-3 Palace result is a sign that they will simply aim to score one more that the opposition, but defensively I am concerned for them.

[raoul]

GW24 Review and GW25 Brain-Melter

Etheridge / Button
Digne / AWB / Doherty / TAA / Tomkins
Salah / Sane / Pogba / Eriksen / Camarasa
Auba / Rashford / Kamara

1.4m itb. And 1 FT.

After a decent 40-pt Tuesday, I managed a paltry 7 on Wednesday … and now have more flags than the UN (and more than the LA Rams, but that is another story). However, OR slightly improved at least, largely thanks to the Auba captaincy paying off while those with Salah got nothing.

Now the fun starts. DGW25 approaches fast, and I only have 1 playing twice. And all those flags.

A Free Hit might be more sane than I had thought. My current squad looks decent for GW26 (assuming the TAA, Pogba situations are ok), and with 2 FT I can navigate GW27 given my relative lack of City players.

Potential Free Hit Team for GW25:

Kepa (HUD)
Luiz (HUD), Keane (WOL, MC), AWB (FUL)
Salah (whu), Rich (WOL, MC), Siggy (WOL, MC), Sterling (ARS, eve), Sane (ARS, eve)
Aguero (ARS, eve), Llorente (NEW)

Subs: Boruc, Connolly, Simpson, Sinclair

Am looking at Hazard (HUD) and contemplating him replacing Salah. If so, can upgrade AWB perhaps but no idea who to, given the fixtures.

[raoul]

minor change to plan, with Coleman instead of Keane, PvA for AWB, Hazard in for Salah, and that allows for Sakho as first sub, just in case I actually need a sub.

Kepa (HUD)
Luiz (HUD), Coleman (WOL, MC), van Aanholt (FUL)
Hazard (HUD), Rich (WOL, MC), Siggy (WOL, MC), Sterling (ARS, eve), Sane (ARS, eve)
Aguero (ARS, eve), Llorente (NEW)

Subs: Boruc, Sakho, Simpson, Sinclair

Trying to think whether anything could happen in the transfer window that threatens the above, and other than a Spurs shock purchase of a forward it seems unlikely.

But may leave it to tonight then pull the FH trigger.

14 home fixtures in the above - surely a decent haul awaits

[raoul]

Don't use the FH.

Etheridge
AWB, Doherty
Salah, Sane, Eriksen
Aguero (with sole FT), Rashford

They all look safe, and 2 MC doublers.

My other 3 starters?

Tomkins and TAA if available. Both flagged.
Pogba if available. Flagged. But Ole says it is nothing and he expects to have him.
1st Sub = Camarasa. Also have Digne if I must.

GW26 bring Auba back for Aguero.

GW27, bench Sane and Digne. But may have other flags, and will have only 1 FT to manage them.

Use the FH

11 starters. Bonus games for 3 Everton players, all of whom likely to play in both. Plus Sterling twice. And Chelsea v Hud.

GW26 same as above position, except I get Auba back without losing my FT. Can roll into 2FT for GW27. Then use some sensible transfers to start preparing for GW31.

But I am left exposed in GW31 with nothing but a TC chip remaining. If the FA Cup goes against me almost all of my current squad would blank. Palace and MC look virtual certainties to get to the QF, and that knocks 6 of my current squad out of GW31. And it is not only the gaping hole in GW31. Even if I rode that one without a FH, there are going to be SO many doubles in GW32 and I would not be able to max them out.

Conclusion

I think I need to build a GW32 squad plan over the coming weeks. Be ready to enjoy the inevitable doubles for MC, MU, Chel, Spurs, CP (and probably a few others). But that means the GW31 blanks will require the FH.

So GW25 free hit is officially cancelled.

Aguero is coming in for Auba. And that is that.



Edit to remove erroneous final sentence.

[raoul]

Sounds like Tomkins and Pogba should be ok but TAA out.

3 red flags on my bench. Need Camarasa to be ok as well. These flags are still tempting me to do a FH I know I almost certainly shouldn't.

[raoul]

GW25 Preview

Despite looking at it over and over, and having the players lined up and ready to pull the trigger, I decided no FH this week. It was a very tricky decision given the huge number of variables, but the thought of going into GW 31 and onwards with nothing but a TC chip was the deciding factor.

Well done me. I had made a reasoned decision and managed to be patient for once. I am convinced it was the best decision in the circumstances, and if MC and Everton go goal crazy this week, and Chelsea keep a CS, and Eden and Llorente score hat tricks, then that is bad luck, not a bad decision.

Etheridge
AWB, Tomkins, TAA, Doherty
Salah, Sane (vc), Eriksen, Pogba
Aguero (c), Rashford
Subs - Camarasa, Digne, Kamara, Button

That's a lot of yellow flags. And red flags.

Playing TAA just in case of a miracle, but realistically Camarasa and Digne will both be auto-subbing in as I cannot imagine I get away with all the yellow flags.

I fancy Palace for a CS so hopefully Tomkins makes it.

Hoping GW31 and 32 become total carnage so my saved FH is worth its weight...

[raoul]

No Llorente in the starting XI.

Wrong decision 0-1 Right decision (now, can it hang on for the full 90 mins after that early strike?)

[Ruth_NZ]

Despite looking at it over and over, and having the players lined up and ready to pull the trigger, I decided no FH this week. It was a very tricky decision given the huge number of variables, but the thought of going into GW 31 and onwards with nothing but a TC chip was the deciding factor.

Looking at your team, I think that was the best decision for you. You have the best 2 City players anyway. If it had been me I'd perhaps have been tempted to take a hit to remove Digne for someone that could help you this week and also has a good chance of a decent double in GW32; Jonny or Boly perhaps.

I guess, with no wildcard, that your plan has to be to gradually concentrate on likely GW32 doublers (though we'll probably not have a final view on that until just after GW31) and to FH in 31?

[raoul]

Glad you asked that Ruth.

Plan A

Aim for a GW31 squad that maximises the known safe fixtures but has 3 bench spots for players likely to blank, but who have a decent GW26-30. Then FH GW32, because by then we know the doubler teams for sure. Right now, we know almost nothing (although doubles for MC, MU, Tot, CP, Che, BHA all look likely). When I get the GW31 squad back, it should be fine for GW33. And it will have 6-8 players with good fixture runs to the end.

Plan B

Ignore GW31 blanks and target GW32 doublers as of now. FH to take care of GW31. As you suggest.

Is Plan A stupid? Am I missing something that makes Plan B a lot more sane?

[raoul]

No Llorente in the starting XI.

Wrong decision 0-1 Right decision (now, can it hang on for the full 90 mins after that early strike?)

FH Team 1-0 Actual team

[Ruth_NZ]

Is Plan A stupid? Am I missing something that makes Plan B a lot more sane?

Plan A is good until GW33. It might be tricky to optimise DGW35 with it is all. But you'll have 3 FTs after the FH so it should be manageable.

Essentially you probably have a choice between a weaker GW33 (Plan B) or a weaker GW35 (Plan A). Perhaps it's best to go the route that seems to suit the weeks with the fixtures you know - so GW28-30, 34, 36-7. It also depends whether your squad as it stands can most easily be made ready for GW31 or GW32 with FTs.

The one advantage of preparing for GW31 is that we'll very soon know exactly what we are facing there, whereas GW32 is likely to be up in the air until GW31 is played. That suits your Plan A and is what I will be doing. But I also have a wildcard to use in GW34.