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Thoughts Of Kessie

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FranckKessie
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

Aldershot Rejects wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 08:05 Speaking as someone with four kids; there's plenty of time yet. 😁
Four is where you give up on everything isn't it? House, Car and sparetime :P

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Aldershot Rejects
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

FranckKessie wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 20:36
Aldershot Rejects wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 08:05 Speaking as someone with four kids; there's plenty of time yet. 😁
Four is where you give up on everything isn't it? House, Car and sparetime :P
Everything apart from FPL apparently :oops:
My older ones are at the point where they are now leaving/have left and I hate it :cry:

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blahblah
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by blahblah »

Aldershot Rejects wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 21:15
FranckKessie wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 20:36
Aldershot Rejects wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 08:05 Speaking as someone with four kids; there's plenty of time yet. 😁
Four is where you give up on everything isn't it? House, Car and sparetime :P
Everything apart from FPL apparently :oops:
My older ones are at the point where they are now leaving/have left and I hate it :cry:
Do you remember BobMem?

His wife banned him due to his sulking etc as kid beat him at FPL πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚

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Aldershot Rejects
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

blahblah wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 21:29
Aldershot Rejects wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 21:15
FranckKessie wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 20:36
Aldershot Rejects wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 08:05 Speaking as someone with four kids; there's plenty of time yet. 😁
Four is where you give up on everything isn't it? House, Car and sparetime :P
Everything apart from FPL apparently :oops:
My older ones are at the point where they are now leaving/have left and I hate it :cry:
Do you remember BobMem?

His wife banned him due to his sulking etc as kid beat him at FPL πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚
Ha. My son beat me for the first time ever last season - having started with an autopick team (having forgotten to pick his own) and a GW2 WC. The shame of it. I thought I might beat him on the final day but he TC'd de Bruyne and ended up with 98 points so that KO'd me. Thankfully he has not gloated too much.

This season I will have my revenge :evil: :evil:

FranckKessie
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

Aldershot Rejects wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 21:15
FranckKessie wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 20:36
Aldershot Rejects wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 08:05 Speaking as someone with four kids; there's plenty of time yet. 😁
Four is where you give up on everything isn't it? House, Car and sparetime :P
Everything apart from FPL apparently :oops:
My older ones are at the point where they are now leaving/have left and I hate it :cry:
I can imagine I will feel same when that happens. Oldest is 5 so still some time to go :D
Last edited by FranckKessie on 22 Aug 2020, 21:36, edited 1 time in total.

FranckKessie
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

Aldershot Rejects wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 21:34
blahblah wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 21:29
Aldershot Rejects wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 21:15
FranckKessie wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 20:36
Aldershot Rejects wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 08:05 Speaking as someone with four kids; there's plenty of time yet. 😁
Four is where you give up on everything isn't it? House, Car and sparetime :P
Everything apart from FPL apparently :oops:
My older ones are at the point where they are now leaving/have left and I hate it :cry:
Do you remember BobMem?

His wife banned him due to his sulking etc as kid beat him at FPL πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚
Ha. My son beat me for the first time ever last season - having started with an autopick team (having forgotten to pick his own) and a GW2 WC. The shame of it. I thought I might beat him on the final day but he TC'd de Bruyne and ended up with 98 points so that KO'd me. Thankfully he has not gloated too much.

This season I will have my revenge :evil: :evil:
Haha! Pure class. I will look forward to competing with my sons!

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blahblah
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by blahblah »

Aldershot Rejects wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 21:34
blahblah wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 21:29
Aldershot Rejects wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 21:15
FranckKessie wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 20:36
Aldershot Rejects wrote: ↑22 Aug 2020, 08:05 Speaking as someone with four kids; there's plenty of time yet. 😁
Four is where you give up on everything isn't it? House, Car and sparetime :P
Everything apart from FPL apparently :oops:
My older ones are at the point where they are now leaving/have left and I hate it :cry:
Do you remember BobMem?

His wife banned him due to his sulking etc as kid beat him at FPL πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚
Ha. My son beat me for the first time ever last season - having started with an autopick team (having forgotten to pick his own) and a GW2 WC. The shame of it. I thought I might beat him on the final day but he TC'd de Bruyne and ended up with 98 points so that KO'd me. Thankfully he has not gloated too much.

This season I will have my revenge :evil: :evil:
I think Mrs Bob had enough at his strops about losing to a 9ish year old.....

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Bobby Fetta
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by Bobby Fetta »

My 10 year old son beat me last season :oops: . By 2 pts, all due to the last De Bruyne goal, right at the end. He probably spent 5 minutes every 2 or 3 weeks on his team, whereas I spent innumerable hours every week on my team.

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Aldershot Rejects
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Bobby Fetta wrote: ↑23 Aug 2020, 18:03 My 10 year old son beat me last season :oops: . By 2 pts, all due to the last De Bruyne goal, right at the end. He probably spent 5 minutes every 2 or 3 weeks on his team, whereas I spent innumerable hours every week on my team.
Glad I'm not alone. :lol: :lol:

FranckKessie
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

STC Re-post.

I am in the process of shaking of my more risky considerations
Wilfried Zaha
Pros
7.0M
Seems to be playing OOP as FW
Good "pre-season"
100% Nailed
3857 mins posting a 0.28 xG90 + 0.16xA90 as FW

Cons
Was shit last year!
Has his mind set on new chapter
Plays for Palace

James Rodriguez
Pros
7.5M
Bought to be the absolute star of his team
Absolute world beater on his best days.
Everton team looks a way better team


Cons
Minutes played for years
Everton is pretty much untested

Am I simply being silly and should I avoid these risks? James is the punt I am most keen on and fixtures start of wonderful.

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From4corners
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by From4corners »

I wonder if Zaha will still play OOP once Batshuayi enters the starting 11. I can see him moving back to the RW with Ayew joining Bats up front, Eze behind in a #10 role and Schlupp on the left wing to give some defensive balance to it's attack.

FranckKessie
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

I think that is definitely a risk. My interest in Zaha luckily can wait a while as fixtures are not the best. Come GW5 the picture should be more clear :)

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Stemania
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by Stemania »

I think you should concentrate less on FPL and more on getting your wife up the duff again. That way we can get you started on data tableaux. :mrgreen:

FranckKessie
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

Stemania wrote: ↑11 Sep 2020, 12:53 I think you should concentrate less on FPL and more on getting your wife up the duff again. That way we can get you started on data tableaux. :mrgreen:

Luckily the third was a girl :) My knowledge on tableaux is zero but me feel is that from professional point of view it is not worth it. But I think I have enough Python projects I could do should a fourth arrive :lol:

FranckKessie
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

Lets get ready to rumble!

McCarthy Button
Ayling TAA VVD KWP Vinagre
Auba Salah(C) Son ASM Bissouma
Werner Mitrovic Davis

1M ITB. GL to all of you with the season!

FranckKessie
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

Hi folks

As some may remember I had an ambition on creating a pdf-report which could bring insight to me and others who cares to read it. I am not done, but I am at a stage where sharing makes sense to. Feedback on current content and great ideas to I could include are much appreciated.

Hope it can be of use to some of you. Looking forward hearing from you :)
Kessie_fplreport.rar
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FranckKessie
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

Hi Frank! How is your season going? Well, let me show you!
Season Performance.JPG
Performance.JPG
All graphs and tables are taken from fplreview.com and is to me the best estimate of a fair assessment of how things are go for a manager. It is based on his model and there are limitations to what parts of variance are captured and what are not. Even within his methods the numbers are only indications, based on a smaller sample than all FPL managers, but it shows that

1. Overall management of the team is rated within the top 1%
2. Post Match Performance is rated within top 10%
3. FPL Points are within the buttom 40%
4. My Luck is within the buttom 0.5%

This picture has been going on for a while and does test a managers mental strength. I don't think it has affected my decisions yet, which is also what the green line (Odds Rank) indicates. So that is good. This post should however also be seen as a way of letting some air out of the balloon before it explodes :lol:

Hopefully GW10 will mark the renaissance of 45 Balotelli. My hopes are high, because with the strategy I have chosen GW9 was the gameweek earmarking me not being on the back foot any longer and from GW10 things was really to kick off with my team on front foot!


45 Balotelli:
McCarthy Button
TAA KWP Keane Ayling Konsa
Salah KDB Rashford Grealish Bissouma
Bamford Watking Mitrovic

ITB: 2.4 FTs: 2
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Bobby Fetta
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by Bobby Fetta »

Hi Franck, hard luck!
I had the same idea. Have to say I was disappointed that my luck was only at 29% - turns out I've made a lot of bad decisions this season. It sure is a frustrating game to play.

FranckKessie
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

BF that is what I call fair own assessment!

I've managed to fill some of the empty space on the Team Overview slides with a new creation. I hope some of you like it. I am more than welcome to inputs :D
Kessie_fplreportGW10.rar
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FranckKessie
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

As a reminder for myself. First real WC draft.

Martinez - McCarthy
TAA - Robbo - Chilwell - Lindelof - Coufal
Salah - Fernandes - Raphinha - Lookman - Anguissa
Bamford - Adams - Vardy

Strategy: FH18,BB19
Bank: 0.1

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by Ruth_NZ »

You are into music if I remember right? Just checking you have come across Greta Van Fleet.


FranckKessie
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

Ruth_NZ wrote: ↑30 Jan 2021, 23:45 You are into music if I remember right? Just checking you have come across Greta Van Fleet.

I indeed am and appreciate the tip Ruth. I came across Greta Van Fleet as couple of years ago. The voice is stunning and Led Zeppelin (my all time favorite band) references all over. Sometimes perhaps to much, but most of the time I don't mind.

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by Ruth_NZ »

OK, I am late to the party then (as usual). :wink: They are not "too Zeppelin" for me; there are very few bands that could stand that comparison anyway but these are such a talented crew. I'd actually like to hear them cover a Zeppelin track or two, maybe "What is and what should never be" which is my all-time #1 Zeppelin track.

Hope life is treating you well anyhow. :)

FranckKessie
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

Ruth_NZ wrote: ↑31 Jan 2021, 06:46 OK, I am late to the party then (as usual). :wink: They are not "too Zeppelin" for me; there are very few bands that could stand that comparison anyway but these are such a talented crew. I'd actually like to hear them cover a Zeppelin track or two, maybe "What is and what should never be" which is my all-time #1 Zeppelin track.

Hope life is treating you well anyhow. :)
Zeppelin II is THE album!! Please dont hesitate dropping more music in here. Time doesnt allow me to explore as much as I used to and new music I’ll never get tired ofπŸ€—

Given these weird times we live in I dont think I am allowed to complain about anything other than the dispositions of your new managerπŸ˜‰

FranckKessie
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

I am about to watch this video, but for anyone interested in FPL and analytics I cannot recommend Sertalp enough. He is the person who in my view has moved the FPL analytics forward the most during this season. So give this video a watch
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4oWH3aO ... e=youtu.be

and then you can follow more of his work on

https://twitter.com/sertalpbilal or https://sertalpbilal.github.io/fpl_optimized/

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Stevieste
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by Stevieste »

Just started following him now, he can jinx also, so he could become a good ally 😁

FranckKessie
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

Stevieste wrote: ↑31 Jan 2021, 20:21 Just started following him now, he can jinx also, so he could become a good ally 😁
:lol:

FranckKessie
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

For people who might find the material useful
Kessie_fplreportGW22.rar
If anyone has comments, feedback or ideas of what to include I'd much appreciate it.
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Ruth_NZ
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Looking through it now and will make some notes here as I go.
  1. Titles are not clear, for example "Offensive Opponent Strength" means "Offensive prospects based on opponent strength" I think? Or does it mean the reverse? It's not quite clear (to me) what these graphs are showing.
  2. Do the initial graphs take the team concerned into the equation? For example, you have Palace rated 14.7 and Liverpool 12.2 over the next 5 games. Surely that doesn't take into account that Liverpool are more potent in attack than Palace?
  3. If there could be a way to convert the rating into projected goals over 5 games that would be nice.
  4. Offensive PPG runs into issues because understat doesn't categorise position the way FPL does. For example Dallas is missing from the defender graph and that's probably because when he plays in midfield, understat categorises him as a midfielder. Not sure but the same may be happening with Cancelo.
  5. Soucek's offensive PPG looks too low, something wrong there too?
  6. The individual team graphics are excellent and provide a very nice overview per team.
  7. If you are intending to eventually monetise this you could maybe get together with BobbyFetta and include his graphs showing performance over a longer period (team trends)? That trend perspective of improving and regressing over a longer period might be a useful add anyhow.

FranckKessie
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Re: Thoughts Of Kessie

Post by FranckKessie »

Ruth_NZ wrote: ↑02 Feb 2021, 16:40 Looking through it now and will make some notes here as I go.
Thanks for the feedback. Appreciate it!

  1. Both the "Offensive Opponent Strength" and "Defensive Opponent Strength" are meant to be fixture tickers and neither of the incorporates relative strength of a team. It only tries to show who has the best fixtures from a Clean Sheet and goals scored perspective.
    • "Offensive Opponent Strength" can be used to identify which teams you should focus picking defenders and goalkeepers from. Their main source of points comes from Clean Sheets and in order to get a clean sheet you need the other team not to score. The opponents offensive strength is thus vital when selecting your defenders. I've chosen to measure offence oppenent by focusing more on the teams underlying xG rather than actual goals. (I put 75% on xG and 25% on actual goals). Makes sense?
    • "Defensive Opponent Strength" is then the opposite. It is used to spot good teams to target because they allow a lot of goals to be scored against them. Again the weight are skewed more to focus on xGA (expected goals against) rather than goals against. The color and size of each bar indicates how good/bad a team is. WBA is by far the easiest fixture for players who score points from assist and goals and MCI is by far the worst fixture
    • The rating is simply the sum of each game of the FPL GW period shown. The only reason why I included it in first place is due to blank and double gameweeks, as I wanted a measure that could take into account that playing more/less games should either increase or decrease your incentive to select players from those teams.
  2. No the initial graphs do who take own team strength into account. Likewise I don't take into account potential home-advantage. That is doable but it will likely have to wait for a much more serious project I have been thinking of.
  3. That is doable, but again I'd need to find a way to account for own team strength first.
  4. So the Offensive PPG shouldn't use understat's categorisation (merge understat data with fpl data for all players per gameweek). Dallas and Cancelo are included in the graphs I look at (and hopefully zipped uploaded here). The numbers are purely based on xG and xA stats from understat. There are criterias for making this graph, but the criteria is mainly based on minutes playerd. Here is what I look at
    DallasANDCancelo.JPG
  5. As numbers are purely based on xG and xA Soucek's offensive points is roughly xG (per match) * 5pts + xA(per match)*3 = 0,27*5 + 0,02*3 =1.41 offensive points per game (because he plays 90 mins per match (I don't use xG90 and xA90 stats!)). The graph doesn't include CS points or bonus points.
  6. Thanks. Currently everything is based on data of the entire season, but incorporating info based on a smaller (or larger) dataset have crossed my mind.
  7. I don't :) This whole report is build
    • To make it easier for me to get an overview of what happens (when time is limited as it is with 3 kids below age of 6).
    • To learn a new programming language
    • To learn myself ways of presenting numbers in a hopefully fairly good looking format. (I personally prefer a table much more than a chart)

    Out of principal I don't want to pay for FPL material that more or less presents data. I actually have some code doing exactly what BobbyF do, but my graphical coding skills are at a level that would make me ashamed of showing it here on FISO 8-)
Clearly there is a lot which isn't included in this, but I've found it to be a useful in several instances. For example it has made me think twice before picking between Grealish/Watkins and Adams/Ings before or in general not simply be carried away by realised FPL points/goals/assists.
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