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Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

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Droughton
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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by Droughton »

I like the team but feel there is a little bit of money wasted in Seri/Milner.... Purely because Wan-B and Bennet are playing 4.0’s and actually scoring decent points. I think you can afford to downgrade one to a 4.5 and then have 1.0/1.2 to upgrade the other or Joselu.

Rolling and bringing in Salah and Vardy is a sound plan and something I am considering also.

Don’t understand why people are shipping Aguero out he’s got the best scoring rate against the top 6 and It could be a 3-2, 4-3 type game. I personally think Aguero is being protected because Jesus is miles off the standard to come in and replace him.

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by Stu255 »

Well I have had 4 pretty poor GW’s in a row with each one underscoring the wider FPL average.

Here I am minded of the Rock, Paper, Scissors phenomenon... what is that? I hear you ask. Well in this simple game of chance that we all know so well. There is a very simple rule that allows me to win about 66% of all the RPS games I play. Lies! I hear you claim.

Well it’s true. And the rule is this...
Whenever your opponent throws a winning hand they are far more likely to throw the same (winning) hand immediately again. When they lose they will almost never throw the same losing hand again and are most likely to throw the hand that would have won the game that they just lost. Learn to play this way, predicting what your opponent will do, and you will win about 90% of first to 10 matches of Rock, Paper, Scissors much to the annoyance of your opponent.

This is irrational in a game of chance like rock, paper, scissors but this is how the human brain has evolved to be subconsciously wired to survive. It sticks with winning plays and abandons losing plays even when they are pure chance, and this fact can be exploited by others once it is recognised. It works in sport and business too.

In FPL, this urge to leave a good week and intervene following a poor week is immense but it is equally flawed logic. The past gameweek has much less significance on the up coming game week than our brains would have us believe and therefore I have decided to stop chopping and changing so much and just let my team roll.

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ajcairns
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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by ajcairns »

Haven't you already done a transfer for GW9? :D

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by Stu255 »

ajcairns wrote: 09 Oct 2018, 18:10 Haven't you already done a transfer for GW9? :D
:lol:

Yes! But my average transfers per week is much higher than 1.0

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Droughton
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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by Droughton »

Good decision Stu

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by Stu255 »

Finally having a decent week.

70pts so far with Hennessey, Alonso, Hazard and Aguero still to play.

Up over 1,000,000 positions in the rankings at the moment!

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by Stu255 »

Had a terrible run from GW 13 - 17, but might be turning a corner now.

Have wild carded and much happier with my team now.

Alison

Shaw
Rudiger
Van Dijk
David Luiz
Robertson

Sane
Pogba
Salah(c)

Rashford
Aubamayang

alexmj
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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by alexmj »

You can't have Allison, VVD, Robertson and Salah? 😁

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by Stu255 »

Oops, I mean Ederson

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ajcairns
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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by ajcairns »

thought you had jacked it in Stu - then I checked your transfer history the other day and saw you were still just above 1 tx a week...

welcome back and good luck with the wild card.

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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by Yarnton »

Not sure about trusting a double Chelsea defence, I would think Liverpool are the only team this season who can be value for this? 5 at the back is brave, maybe foolhardy?

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by Stu255 »

ajcairns wrote: 18 Jan 2019, 15:07 thought you had jacked it in Stu - then I checked your transfer history the other day and saw you were still just above 1 tx a week...

welcome back and good luck with the wild card.
Took my eye off it for a about 6 weeks and made some rash decisions during that time which really hurt.

One week I finished with 20pts and 5 red flags!

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by Stu255 »

Yarnton wrote: 18 Jan 2019, 21:42 Not sure about trusting a double Chelsea defence, I would think Liverpool are the only team this season who can be value for this? 5 at the back is brave, maybe foolhardy?
Maybe?

But would rather have a premium defender over a second rate midfielder or forward.

Defenders get the most pts/£ and Chelsea are the second best defence with 10/22 clean sheets.

£5.9 - 6m for someone who gets +4 for CS every other week seems like good value to me. Hard to beat that elsewhere on the pitch.

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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by ajcairns »

Pts per £ is all well and good Stu but if you took that to the furthest extent you wouldnt you end up with a team that only cost £95m? The metric that counts the most is total points.

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by Stu255 »

Here's a question, my team currently is...

Ederson

Shaw
Rudiger
Van Djik
David Luiz
Robertson

Sane
Pogba
Salah

Rashford
Aubamayang

Button
Hojberg
Westwood
Quanar


As this is my first season, what do I need to be doing for double gameweeks? Do DGW punish the big 6 or help the big 6? How many teams does this affect?

I would guess than most players aren't worth chasing for DGW only the biggest hitters are worth taking a hit for? And wildcarding for a single week seems like a good way to mess up your whole season.

What are the rules of thumb? and which part of my team should I be worried about?

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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by Patrician »

The key thing to remember is don’t ruin your squad chasing big DGW scores. For any individual player, there is an obvious advantage to a DGW and ideally you want a player you can captain. However it is quite common to see rotation in DGWs so don’t necessarily expect your pick to play 180 mins.


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ajcairns
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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by ajcairns »

It's also about not being left with a decimated team when your players don't have game. GW27 is your first concern Stu. You currently have 5 players (and no GK) without a game that week. Those players though, may have a DGW in 25 (although as discussed elsewhere it's not confirmed nor even fully confident that it will happen) so you might not want to rush in and change them now. I cant recommend enough the spreadsheet that details all the blanks, and possible blanks and when the doubles will come.

There's plenty of strategy's on here that will help you form your own opinion.

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by Stu255 »

Decided to play FH for GW27.
Had 4 blanks and 6 players in the Utd - Liverpool.

Plus there are some strong individuals against really weak teams elsewhere. Also tempted to gamble on Newcastle keeping a clean sheet vs Huddersfield.

Seems like a week where most natural captaincies are out of reach so a big chance to steal a march.

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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Have you hit the FH button yet?
I posted on the D/BGW thread with a couple of thoughts about this - the gains you make in 27 might very easily be lost and then some if you can’t field a team in either 31 or 32, plus the free hit reduces your ability to make a free transfer this week so further hampers you in the medium term

I do feel your pain about 6 ManU/Liv players. I’ll be hiding behind the sofa!

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by Stu255 »

Smurphy's Paw wrote: 10 Feb 2019, 21:15 Have you hit the FH button yet?
I posted on the D/BGW thread with a couple of thoughts about this - the gains you make in 27 might very easily be lost and then some if you can’t field a team in either 31 or 32, plus the free hit reduces your ability to make a free transfer this week so further hampers you in the medium term

I do feel your pain about 6 ManU/Liv players. I’ll be hiding behind the sofa!
Already gone for it.

I’m not worried about having 6 players in the same game, its more the fact that all 6 are facing tough opponents.

I’m just filling my team with Spurs, Arsenal, West Ham and Newcastle.

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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by Ironfist »

Stu255 wrote: 11 Feb 2019, 22:30
Smurphy's Paw wrote: 10 Feb 2019, 21:15 Have you hit the FH button yet?
I posted on the D/BGW thread with a couple of thoughts about this - the gains you make in 27 might very easily be lost and then some if you can’t field a team in either 31 or 32, plus the free hit reduces your ability to make a free transfer this week so further hampers you in the medium term

I do feel your pain about 6 ManU/Liv players. I’ll be hiding behind the sofa!
Already gone for it.

I’m not worried about having 6 players in the same game, its more the fact that all 6 are facing tough opponents.

I’m just filling my team with Spurs, Arsenal, West Ham and Newcastle.
Unreliable United

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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by raoul »

what's your plan for GW31 and beyond Stu?

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by Stu255 »

raoul wrote: 12 Feb 2019, 17:51 what's your plan for GW31 and beyond Stu?
I've mentioned a few times elsewhere that I think it's a mistake to burn chips in a week when there are likely to be fewer points available. For example GW31 is likely to have fewer goals, fewer CS, there are likely to be fewer points available. Therefore I expect the universe of FPL managers to have quite a tight bell curve of score distribution. Other weeks such as GW32 and 35 are likely to have vastly more points available for FPL managers and I would expect to see a much wider bell curve of points distribution across FPL managers for those weeks... therefore I think it makes far more sense to use your most powerful chips in the weeks that have the greatest opportunity to get points and that using for example FH in GW31 is a huge mistake. I have learnt this after myself using my FH in the earlier BGW.

Also I don't think it's worth taking hits in order to get a 10th and 11th man out. It's far more important that you just have a good captain for GW31 and you can do that with 1 or 2 FT's. With Liverpool playing Fulham in GW31 I think most of the points will come from that one fixture, so I'm just going to captain Salah.

I think the psychology of not wanting to fall behind tricks people into thinking GW31 is an important GW, when in fact it is the least important GW of the whole season (it's a actually a truncated opportunity for getting points) and should be treated as such. GW31 is likely to contribute less to your final total than any other GW, why apply multipliers here?

I think it's smart to not worry so much about the BGW's and to put all of your focus on those DGW's when the value of your chips is 130-140% rather than in BGW's when the value of your chips is 60-70%.


For GW31 I'm just going to play with 10, because this gives me a strong team for GW32 and I can cram the team with DGW for 35 and use my BB chip.
Capture.PNG
I was planning to go BB on GW32 but now I think I will TC Pogba on GW32 and go BB on GW 35, bring in another City asset for GW35.


Been a tough first season, I had a really mixed start, then GW13-17 was terrible and I found myself out at around 3.8m rank. But from GW18-28 I think I figured things out much better only to make a bit of a fudge of the last two GW's. But I think my strategy for the run in is pretty good.

I think some people have too much of a GW by GW mindset, I also find it bizarre that people would save their WC for the final 3 or 4 rounds. The benefit of the WC really covers about 10 GW's.


I've had a very light bench most of the season and tries to pick players who were nailed on. But for this BGW / DGW bit it is now obvious to me that you need a deep bench for this part of the season.
It's been a tough first season, I've been very experimental, I've used 78 unique players and taken 72pts of hits.


I've done best when playing with 5 defenders from the top 6 and I've been at my worse when chasing goal form and easy fixtures for midfielders.
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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by Joccki_10 »

TC Pogba while having Agüero?! Seems odd looking at their current form..

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by Stu255 »

Joccki_10 wrote: 11 Mar 2019, 10:47 TC Pogba while having Agüero?! Seems odd looking at their current form..
Aguero not on a DGW.

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Re: Stu255 Rate My Team (first FPL season)

Post by ajcairns »

Stu255 wrote: 11 Mar 2019, 22:12
Joccki_10 wrote: 11 Mar 2019, 10:47 TC Pogba while having Agüero?! Seems odd looking at their current form..
Aguero not on a DGW.
Not yet Stu, but the presumption is that he will be once City win their FA Cup game.

And a right juicy DGW to boot.

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