Fuzzy Warbles

[Fuzzy]

Thanks for the feedback SP.

You have got me thinking, and i am now inclined to switch Robinson-Son-Rashford out for Aurier-Martial-Vardy.

(Aurier and Martial’s histories with soft tissue injuries a slight concern).

[Fuzzy]

By the way, well done this week, that was a cracking score

[Smurphy Paw]

By the way, well done this week, that was a cracking score

Thanks

[Fuzzy]

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GW30 Review

Trying to get this all back on track now ... GW30 was 105 points with the bench boost played, and rank is now at 100,000.

(I'm not going to do a post-mortem. Not finding out that Reina was going to miss until the gameweek was underway stung a little. However, we'll need to get used to that from here on, with these elongated gameweeks.)

My final wildcard squad (similar to most), and team selected for GW31 is:

Pope, (Martin)
TAA, Doherty, Aurier, Saiss, (Lascelles)
Salah (c), de Bruyne, Fernandes, Martial, (Mount)
Jimenez, Vardy, (Connolly)

0.0 in the bank.

(Thanks to SP for the small nudge that helped get me here.)

I am not judging on the basis of less than one week's performances, however I will say that Vardy needs to spark up in GW32 or else he is in danger of becoming Jesus in GW33 if price changes, and no other flare ups, permit.

I will be monitoring Mount's minutes closely as well.

[Smurphy Paw]

Great score this week, Fuzzy. Nice one

[Fuzzy]

Why thank you Mr Paw, says he, tipping hat. (To be fair, it was only captaincy that had me scoring more than you )

[Fuzzy]

GW31 Review

Wildcard played, 107 points, and rank is now just inside 50,000. That’s more like it.

I am happy with the wildcard decision to go Vardy-Martial-Aurier over Rashford-Son-Robinson. Clearly it gave me a boost this week, but it also opens up some further transfer options. Such transfer options include turning Vardy/Mount into Rashford/Pulisic, which I have already done.

I know it’s a -4 right after a wildcard, which I usually resist, but the points reaped in GW31, and knowing I’ll be priced out if I wait, were enough to convince me. (Maybe my usual hesitation is because it so unusual for me to get a wildcard “almost just right”, and so the possibility of turning that into an advantage that lasts more than one week is rarely in play?)

Anyways, GW32 team is:

Pope, (Martin)
TAA, Doherty, Aurier, (Saiss, Lascelles)
Salah, de Bruyne, Fernandes, Martial, Pulisic
Jimenez (c), Rashford, (Connolly)

0.0 in the bank.

That’s 10 out of 11 away from home, which is a little disconcerting. Benching Saiss seems harsh, but one needs to miss out (if he picks up a 10th yellow this week, he will be sitting there for awhile). Given the short turnaround between games that are coming for some, it will be no surprise if he is called on this week to sub in.

So that’s me settled then. (Until Pep and Jurgen start to royally screw us over )

[Fuzzy]

GW32 Review

64 (-4) points. Rank dropped a little, to almost 60,000.

I am not disappointed with that – it was just a captaincy fail and/or a poor benching decision away from holding or improving, and I am satisfied with my squad.

GW33 team is:

Pope, (Martin)
TAA, Doherty, Lascelles, (Aurier, Saiss)
Salah (c), de Bruyne, Fernandes (v), Martial, Pulisic
Jimenez, Rashford, (Connolly)

As is the pattern, I have 10 out of 11 at home this week (and only KdB away, who scores for fun anywhere).

There’s nothing there that needs immediate attention (he said) and I’ll carry the transfer. Like many, I have a close watch on Liverpool, and Salah to Sterling could be on the cards at some stage.

[Fuzzy]

GW33 Review

74 points, and rank is back to where it was after GW31 at about 45,000.

I finished up transferring Lascelles out for Holgate when it became apparent Lascelles was expected to miss out. And now Holgate might be hobbled - however I am not counting on him for this week so that's not a catastrophe.

Armbanding Mo was another captaincy miss, and the Salah to Sterling switch is now on.

GW34 will be:

Pope, (Martin)
TAA, Doherty, Aurier, (Saiss, Holgate)
Sterling, de Bruyne (c), Fernandes (v), Martial, Pulisic
Jimenez, Rashford, (Connolly)

I have 0.9m in pocket, and no plans for it. The gameweeks come thick and fast now, and the odd benching won't come as a surprise.

[Fuzzy]

GW34 Review

77 points. Tread water on rank, at 43,000.

I picked the wrong week to ship Salah for Sterling but it could have been quite a bit worse. The signs suggested Sterling would start, however once he did not, the late points once he got on the pitch were a relief. (Trying to second guess Pep is not very clever.) It’s Rashford out for Vardy this week, but not without some trepidation – my timing on Vardy ownership this season has not been good.

GW35 team is:

Pope, (Martin)
TAA, Doherty, Saiss, (Aurier, Holgate)
Sterling (c), de Bruyne, Fernandes (v), Martial, Pulisic
Jimenez, Vardy, (Connolly)

I am going to double down on the Sterling decision and, as mentioned elsewhere, if Brighton attempt to play out from the back as they have done recently, there could be some juicy pickings available.

Looking forward, a sketchy plan for the final few weeks could look something like:
GW36: Jimenez -> Ings (for BHA, bou)
GW37: Pulisic -> Dilva or Bilva depending on likely minutes (for wat) [I would love to give Dilva a final cameo in my team ]
GW38: Free Hit

[Smurphy Paw]

Treading water is underrated. You kicked my behind in a couple of side games last week. Fortunately you carried the same form in to 5AS and covered for my Jiménez-esque performance up front!

[blahblah]

Treading water is underrated. You kicked my behind in a couple of side games last week. Fortunately you carried the same form in to 5AS and covered for my Jiménez-esque performance up front!

Back to my Floors and Ceilings.I think the "treading water" GW's are the best ie if those are your worst then you are doing freaking well. It's collecting GR' over 6m that are more the problem than not enough in top 100k.....

[Fuzzy]

GW35 Review

96 points. That gave rank a nice boost, and now up to 13,000. I have only had one red arrow since the restart, and it wasn’t a bad one, so that feels pretty good. (Gives nod to “treading water” and “floors and ceilings” observations. )

The gameweek went about as well as I could have reasonably hoped. Without delving too deeply into the merits of Sterling’s 3rd goal, there is some comfort from finally being on the right side of a captaincy decision. If I wanted to be hyper-critical, I could have gone Jesus rather than Vardy as my Rashford replacement, but the fact is that I just don’t rate him, plus (more practically, from an FPL perspective) I didn't want to commit that 3rd Man City place to him.

I have now shifted Jimenez out for Ings, as hinted last week. I’m slightly concerned about the short turnaround between games for the Saints, but I pulled the trigger nonetheless.

GW36 team is:

Pope, (Martin)
TAA, Doherty, Aurier, (Saiss, Holgate)
Sterling, de Bruyne, Fernandes, Martial, Pulisic
Ings, Vardy, (Connolly)

Captaincy is still to be decided. I could roll the dice on Pulisic, or I could back Pep to back Sterling in again. (Or I could chicken out and back Bruno to get back to his scoring ways). As of right now, it’s on Sterling. I guess a start for Aurier could be in question too, but Saiss can cover if need be.


I need to start thinking about some possible GW38 Free Hit permutations.

[Fuzzy]

GW36 Review

44 points, and rank is back out to 17,000.

Not much to say really. Bringing Vardy in for Rashford, rather than Jesus (or just keeping Rashford) a couple of gameweeks back doesn’t look all that clever in hindsight, but you can’t get all those calls right.

I am going to take a one week chance on David Silva this week, and he comes in for Pulisic. It’s a gamble – I have no instinct for how many minutes he is likely to get – but one I am willing to take.

GW37 team is:

Pope, (Martin)
TAA, Doherty, Saiss, (Aurier, Holgate)
Sterling, de Bruyne, Fernandes, Martial (c), Silva
Ings (v), Vardy, (Connolly)

Good luck all.

[Fuzzy]

GW38 Free Hit thoughts

My current preferred is:

Martinez, (Martin)
Bardsley, Long, Pieters, (Diop, Williams)
Sterling, Salah, De Bruyne, Martial, (McCarthy)
Aubameyang, Ings, Jesus

It's not very subtle.

If I wanted to squeeze every last drop of blood from the rock, I could have Fernandes over Martial but would need to run with Branthwaite at D3 and “safety blanket” Diop would need to driop back to Lamptey.

I considered Kane+Silva in preference to Jesus+Martial, but I am not convinced about going without any ManUre assets, plus Harry’s record against Crystal Palace is average.

Silva rather than KDB would allow me to keep Bruno, and to “sex up” one of the defender spots, but I am not seeing an attacking defender with a super-enticing matchup.

Maybe it will become clearer after these final few games of GW37. And maybe not.

[Fuzzy]

.

^^^
Forget this - I have moved on! Will update after tonight's matches.

[Fuzzy]

GW37 review

77 points, and rank is at 13,000. Shifting Pulisic out for Silva cost me, as I finished up with only 10 on the park. There was always a reasonable likelihood that Silva would miss out, however the Saiss no-show caught me out. It would have been a little easier to take if Pulisic had stayed on the bench!

This has me in an eerily similar position to last season. I am currently 8 points off the top 10,000 (I was 12 points off the top 10,000 going into GW38 last year, with a rank of just over 13,000!). I made a bit of a mess of GW38 last season – here’s hoping it goes better this time around.

My free hit plan (pending any last minute surprise developments) is now:

Martinez (Macey)
TAA, Bardsley, Branthwaite (Long, Williams)
Sterling (c), Salah, De Bruyne, Silva, Antonio
Kane, Ings (Greenwood)

Given how similar my current position is to last season, I took a look back to see how else the season played out in a consistent way (or not) to last year.

Shape of the season
Quite different: Last season I was in the top 10,000 by GW26 but paddled through the final third. This year, this is as high as I have been. I gave ground between GWs 10 and 21, got some back, but was then tracking sideways again from about GW24. I did push on after the restart (but I’m guessing some of the managers ahead of me may have lost a bit of interest).

Total points (after GW37)
2,282 (and 182 benched points). Last season: 2,309 (and 173 benched).

Transfers/Hits
One 8 point hit (same as last year). 32 points spent on transfers (last season was 40). ”Points gained from transfers” = 188 (last season was 182). Spooky.

Captaincy
Captaincy fails (i.e. < 10 points) = 14. Last season = 8. OK, that’s not spooky, that’s just bad.

Formation
4-4-2 was my most common formation (12 times), but my least successful! 3-5-2 (11 times) was most successful. That’s a flip around from last season, but not at all surprising.

[Smurphy Paw]

Is group think emerging or are we on to a winning formula? Subject to even more tinkering the only difference in our first 11 is my Pieters to your Bardsley!

[Fuzzy]

I am clinging to the belief that it is the latter.

My GW38 record in recent seasons has been hit and miss. Last season wasn't great, but has been better in prior years (I still remember the fabled Giroud GW38 hat-trick!)

With a 4 point advantage on me, that would protect your #1 seed for FC Koln next season too! (Not that I am so petty as to have checked )

[Smurphy Paw]

Funny you should mention the Goats. I have just PM’d you

[Fuzzy]

GW38 Review

And so it ends. 76 points. Final rank of 10,501. 1 point off top 10,000.

I made 2 final tweaks on Saturday - my short-term love affair with Antonio died off (couldn't justify going without Martial or Bruno on field), and I lost my nerve on TAA and the rotation risk he represented.

Final line-up was:

Martinez (Macey)
VVD, Pieters, Branthwaite (Bardsley, Williams)
Sterling (c), Salah, De Bruyne, Silva, Martial
Kane, Ings (Greenwood)

So the 2 late changes were for the best. It's just a bit of a shame that, with some pre-warning of the Klopperation that was coming, a flip from Salah and Greenwood to Auba and Grealish would have been the obvious change-up. Oh well.

I know this season was unique, but I'm still not convinced on the merits of a GW38 Free Hit as a tactic. I guess the circumstances of each season will dictate - in a season I happen to be playing with a heavy defence it definitely has merit.

Stay well, and stay safe.

[Fuzzy]

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2020/21 preseason scratchings

It feels kind of weird to have the game open without fixtures, but in some ways that’s one less source of noise to deal with when trying to determine some early preferences.
Besides, this is the most fun part of the season, so I am not going to sit on my hands while the “powers that be” turn the handle on the fixture generator.

What follows is a collection of logic and stating of the obvious, with a sprinkling of prejudice and completely unjustified hoo-ha.

Right now, my skeleton is:

McCarthy, Nyland
Trent, X, 4.5m, 4.5m, 4.0m (Ferguson)
Salah, KdB, Greenwood, Pulisic (*), X
Jimenez (*), Antonio, X

A random collection of comments:

• I have 16.5m to invest in the 3 X’s

• I think I want Pulisic eventually, but I can’t believe he will be ready for GW1

• Chelsea are a big question for me, so doubling on Werner and Pulisic (if fit) from GW1 isn’t on my agenda. That kind of explains the (*)’s against Jimenez and Pulisic – there’s room for some early gameweek manoeuvring in those slots

• Without having to juggle Europe commitments, I am bullish on Wolves. Vinagre is a walk-up for one of the 4.5m defender spots. Podence is a big watch. (When I say I am bullish, that is not to the extent of investing 3 times over, to include a guy who is a promise pick)

• There are a few different options at the ~6.5m forward spot. For now, there aren’t enough options that I want two of them. I have been here before – whilst I do rate him, Antonio does feel a little like the Arnautovic and Zaha of seasons past

• I am (unjustifiably?) uncertain about the impact of a short pre-season off the back of a compressed end to last season. Are we going to see soft-tissue injuries? Do I need to construct my bench accordingly (i.e. don’t go with 3 empty spots, and make sure B1 is reasonably solid)?

• Compound that with my usual want to keep a little budget back, and 16.5m on the final 3 X’s doesn’t go far. It certainly cools my interest in running with Bruno in the Pulisic place

• My pre-disposition to safe points at the back has me investing that 16.5m in Robbo, Soucek and a 4.5m forward (with nothing held back in reserve)

• (There is undoubted value and opportunity in the 4.5m defender bracket – however my natural style of play is to not rely on tactical defensive rotation. I just don’t do it well.)

• The early gameweek solution for Pulisic doesn’t need to be solved just yet. Let’s be clear, if the Mancs miss GW1, that’s not the only unsolved puzzle! An early look at Chelsea and how the new faces gel together may have me wavering on him anyway

Hmm, reading that back, it's fairly clear what my natural playing style is!

[Taff Murray]

I believe Chelsea will be missing in GW1 so that obviously means another team as well which we won't know who that is until the fixture list is released. If the Manchester sides are also missing then GW1 could be a real cutdown week with 3 games/6 sides missing unless of course the fixture list pops up with a Manc derby week 1.

[Fuzzy]

@TM

I take your point.

This is a squad built deliberately without fixtures in mind - possibly one that I would gravitate towards and hence not want to deviate TOO widely from at the beginning.

It’s as much to amuse myself, and to start to look at players in a “what do I give up to get ...” kind of way, as it is a realistic attempt at a GW1 (or 2, or 3 ?) line up.

[Fuzzy]

Some further thoughts, now that we have fixtures.

Firstly though, just to put a full-stop on my earlier musings, my skeleton (before fixtures, form or injuries) finished up as:

McCarthy, (Nyland)
Trent, Virgil, 4.5m, 4.5m, (Ferguson)
Salah, KdB, Greenwood, Pulisic, Soucek
Jimenez, Antonio, (4.5m)

Vinagre and Saliba are temporarily warming the 4.5m defender spots, and form part of a 2 from 3 rotation along with Soucek. 0.5m banked. It will be a bonus if Ferguson becomes a genuine option, turning the rotation into a 2 from 4.

Now that we have fixtures, if GW01 was to kick off tomorrow I would start with:

McCarthy, (Nyland)
Trent, Virgil, 4.5m, 4.5m, (Ferguson)
Salah, Aubameyang, Son, 4.5m, (Greenwood)
Jimenez, Mitrovic, (4.5m)

I am still holding the 0.5m, which may seem a little odd when I am relying on a 4.5m mid in my GW01 starting line-up, but there is some twisted logic to that. Comments:

• West Ham’s appalling fixtures, combined with Fulham’s obliging start (and Burnley’s early blank) makes Mitrovic over Antonio a relatively simple decision;

• Aubameyang over KdB for the first one or two gameweeks is also straightforward;

• With Pulisic a big query for GW01 and Chelsea having Liverpool in GW02 I can wait for him for a little longer. Moving down to Ziyech is a possibility, but I am a little uncertain on Chelsea and there’s GW02 (which looks a potentially sticky FPL gameweek overall, considering other fixtures as well). Son takes that spot. He has been a bit of a hero or zero for me, and I’m not all that enthused about Spurs, but he is a known quantity and I could hold him until GW08 if he makes a case;

• Now about that floating 0.5m. The obvious thing to do would be to up one of the three onfield 4.5m’s to a 5.0m. The first question is who? The second question is, does it gain me enough in immediate points to compensate for the flexibility I concede?

• Soucek’s first gameweek is good, but he offers very little value from GW02 until GW07. Who else in that spot then – Mooy? Ritchie? I’m not convinced. There are a few more options at the 5.5m mark – ASM, Armstrong, Trezeguet, Podence, Lundstram. Waiting a week or two to fish in this pool, once the extra 0.5m is released from the Auba to KDB (or Son to Pulisic?) transfer, doesn’t seem a bad option – particularly if it gives me a starter and reduces my rotation requirement down to a 1 from 2.

• An alternative immediate use of the 0.5m is to find a 5.0m defender from the outset who I can comfortably start every week. Sheffield United and Spurs seem the most likely candidates to provide that option. It would be a bonus if I could find two, as I could move to a solid 4-4-2 from GW03. This option becomes more appealing if the pool of 4.5m defenders falls away, although that could be less of an issue if Ferguson is a live prospect. I haven’t dismissed this option, but it’s a bit messy at the moment.
  (All else being equal, if Ferguson is a deadspot I would prefer a locked in 5.5m mid over a 5.5m defender when I have that extra 0.5m to spend, as the rotation of the two 4.5m’s - i.e. 2 defs rather than 1 def + 1 mid - works better).

[Smurphy Paw]

Solid thinking Fuzzy.
(We’re going to be getting very similar scores again!)

[DAREEL]

[

Similar to my draft only i have Doc over VVD. What is your reasoning for VVD considering Doc is a 6 mil midfielder who gets CS points with better fixtures ? Thinking of the wolves double defence actually but with Jimi it limits a wolves mid if needed ( jota, podence, traore)

I also am going with the .5 saving so a possible Aubs to KDB/Sterling and upgrade Jimi to werner. Spot on that the .5 itb is very useful

[Fuzzy]

Thanks SP, hopefully we're not falling for the same traps.

There is still plenty of time to tinker / get distracted / process new information, but I am really tempted to down tools for a couple of weeks now. (I bet I won't)

[Fuzzy]

So, final thoughts before pressers and other unwelcome last minute developments send me scampering.

1) I have lost faith in Greenwood. Salah and KDB/Sterling are locks in midfield, and my preferred Man United option becomes Martial - the midfield options require too much compromise
2) The Chelsea midfield situation is mindboggling. Is Pulisic, when fit, still my preferred - I don't really know. I can look on, for now
3) With that in mind, and knowing his crazy ownership numbers, I will start with Werner
4) Wolves have regressed to a watch. Doherty out, a bunch of young guys in, and an average couple of fixtures to start means my conviction in Jimenez has taken a hit. But no Europa, and those fixtures from GW4 ...
5) So in terms of my foundation, its Werner in for Jimenez, Martial over Greenwood and a big squeeze on the Pulisic spot. That changes things up a little

That switches my foundation to:

McCarthy, (Nyland)
Trent, Virgil, 4.5m, 4.5m, (4.0-4.5m)
Salah, KdB, [6.0-6.5m], 5.0m, (4.5m)
Werner, Martial, Antonio

The lack of 4.0m defenders, the Soucek dilemma, and the obvious fixture constraints has my GW1 team looking like:

McCarthy, (Nyland)
Trent, Virgil, 4.5m, 4.5m, (4.5m)
Salah, Aubameyang, [5.0-6.5m], (4.5m), (4.5m)
Werner, Ings, [6.0-7.5m]

Ings becomes Martial for GW2. Aubameyang becomes Sterling/KdB for GW3. That gets me 0.5m back, to catch an early value bolter, or to reinvest. There's potential value at the 5.5m mid spot (including at Wolves, depending on how they settle down), so for now I am looking at Saka and DCL as GW1 starters. The 4.5m defenders will be last minute decisions.

[Stena Bib]

So, final thoughts before pressers and other unwelcome last minute developments send me scampering.

1) I have lost faith in Greenwood. Salah and KDB/Sterling are locks in midfield, and my preferred Man United option becomes Martial - the midfield options require too much compromise
2) The Chelsea midfield situation is mindboggling. Is Pulisic, when fit, still my preferred - I don't really know. I can look on, for now
3) With that in mind, and knowing his crazy ownership numbers, I will start with Werner
4) Wolves have regressed to a watch. Doherty out, a bunch of young guys in, and an average couple of fixtures to start means my conviction in Jimenez has taken a hit. But no Europa, and those fixtures from GW4 ...
5) So in terms of my foundation, its Werner in for Jimenez, Martial over Greenwood and a big squeeze on the Pulisic spot. That changes things up a little

That switches my foundation to:

McCarthy, (Nyland)
Trent, Virgil, 4.5m, 4.5m, (4.0-4.5m)
Salah, KdB, [6.0-6.5m], 5.0m, (4.5m)
Werner, Martial, Antonio

The lack of 4.0m defenders, the Soucek dilemma, and the obvious fixture constraints has my GW1 team looking like:

McCarthy, (Nyland)
Trent, Virgil, 4.5m, 4.5m, (4.5m)
Salah, Aubameyang, [5.0-6.5m], (4.5m), (4.5m)
Werner, Ings, [6.0-7.5m]

Ings becomes Martial for GW2. Aubameyang becomes Sterling/KdB for GW3. That gets me 0.5m back, to catch an early value bolter, or to reinvest. There's potential value at the 5.5m mid spot (including at Wolves, depending on how they settle down), so for now I am looking at Saka and DCL as GW1 starters. The 4.5m defenders will be last minute decisions.

To think that Greenwood's price has risen by 3m for that extra, he would have to nailed and outrageously brilliant
[got him in after lockdown and was not too impressed]