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Fuzzy Warbles

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Fuzzy
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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

Hmm. I’m backtracking now - I might just take the zero. Fixtures are good, they get a little (enforced) freshen up, and he will almost be a differential from GW12 at this rate.

#inemiwetrust

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by TheRumourMill »

Hi Fuzzy,

Your team is very very similar to mine (see my post in the STC), and I'm in a similar predicament to you, with a difference being I already made the James Rodriguez to Jota move on Friday night before all this covid news broke. I'm leaning towards a -4 to get in a playing keeper, replacing Forster with Meslier perhaps. Want to hang onto Martinez as not only does he have good fixtures upcoming, he has at least 2 DGW's to come this season, one of which could be as early as January.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

Right. With Grealish, Watkins and Stephens nailed to my bench, no playing keeper, and queries over Robbo, Cancelo and Kilman (must be a 1 pointer or less this week) I think I need to twist rather than stick, and spend -4.

I have 0.1m in the bank (and future plans for the 0.9m I expect to release with the Hames to Jota transfer next week).

Watkins to Bamford is the frontrunner at the moment - bringing forward a transfer I might otherwise make before GW16, when Villa’s fixtures hit the skids. I think Bamford can keep pace with Watkins over the stretch from GW12 to 15 (and will outperform after that).

A Martinez switch is the other option - he may well go in GW16 - but I’m not quite feeling it.

Still time to mull it over.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW11 Review

The gameweek isn’t done yet but I am – 81(-4) points, and rank improves to about 160,000, which will drop once the gameweek is complete.

The 4 point hit, to bring Bamford in a little earlier than I had intended, paid off. I genuinely thought that was a better hit than shifting Martinez for a 4.7m keeper. For GW12 the Rodriguez to Jota transfer has been made, which gets my bank back to 0.9m and gives me:

Martinez, (Forster)
Chilwell, Robertson, Cancelo, (Dallas, Kilman)
Salah (c), KDB, Grealish, Jota, (Stephens)
Vardy, Calvert-Lewin, Bamford

The 0.9m gets me from Vardy to Kane anytime before GW16 with a spare 0.1m, as things stand, to switch Cancelo to Dias if that needs to be done.

I am accepting the no-Bruno path I am on. I am happy that Salah and De Bruyne cover captaincy until GW16, and I am very keen on having Kane join them in my team from then (or before!). There’s not much else that needs attention, unless I become nervous about my skinny bench in which case Cancelo will instead drop down (to Reece James, maybe) so that I can upgrade Kilman.

Of course I could use one more transfer to get to Bruno, and forego Kane. Expanding on that, there is a scenario where Jota, Kane, Robertson are replaced by Son, Fernandes and a 4.5m defender (to rotate with Dallas in D3/4). There are a bunch of questions over that approach though: i) is Son more or less equal to Kane (especially across the festive fixtures), ii) at what point would I be prepared to drop Robbo and Jota given Liverpool’s strong fixture run, iii) the bench, iv) what else am I locking myself out of, v) that’s an awful lot of transfers to have lined up – there are bound to be other problems to solve in the next few weeks, vi) what about GWs 18/19?

(Note to self: Sticking to the plan, also note that Son and Pulisic is pretty much the same cost as Kane and Jota. That could be helpful when Liverpool’s fixtures soften a little and Chelsea’s improve from GW19. The Christmas fixtures are done by then and if Pulisic has got through without injury and is looking likely to start consistently then he is definitely on my future shopping list. Again, it would take a few transfers to get there, as it also implies a shift to 3-5-2.)

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW12 Review

There’s not an awful lot of time for reflection before GW13 is upon us. I got out of GW12 with 66 points and rank is close to 160,000 (a small green arrow).

Jota gave me 0 minutes and 0 points in his one week in my team, and he is gone for Soucek. As a result, GW13 will be:

Martinez, (Forster)
Chilwell, Robertson, Cancelo, (Dallas, Kilman)
Salah, KDB (c), Grealish, Soucek, (Stephens)
Vardy, Calvert-Lewin, Bamford

I expect Vardy to become Kane for GW14, leaving me with a 2.0m bank.

I am not fully decided on how that gets invested, but part of it will go towards upgrading either Kilman or Stephens (which I was inclined to do before Jota got broken anyhow). Kilman to Dias has appeal, as it’s simply a matter of time before Cancelo is rested. If the “rest” becomes a recurring problem with Cancelo, there are a few sideways options available.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW13 Review

52 points and rank is up to 130,000.

The last 4 week have been solid, without being special, but consolidation actually feels like progress this season!

Vardy has become Kane for GW14, which gives me:

Martinez, (Forster)
Chilwell, Robertson, Cancelo, (Dallas, Kilman)
Salah (c), KDB, Grealish, Soucek, (Stephens)
Kane, Calvert-Lewin, Bamford

I have 2.0m banked, and a little voice telling me to use it to turn Grealish into Rashford. That will cost me a hit (a Rashford rise takes him out of reach), and it makes addressing my bench depth a little trickier. I will give it more thought.

Looking further forward, based on an initial look I favour FH18, BB19 but I need to consider that more closely.

Chilwell, Robbo, Cancelo?, Dallas, Salah, KDB, Soucek, Kane, DCL?, Bamford gives me a good foundation of doubles and favourable singles for GW19, with opportunities to add further before then.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

Little voice has been punched in the face. Grealish stays.

Stick with the plan until the plan changes. Right now, I don't have a plan through GWs 18 and 19, so won't be doing anything until I get time next week to think that through.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

Looking forward - GWs 18 and 19

I am settled on FH18, and either BB or TC19.

I don’t want to lose Martinez, Grealish or Calvert-Lewin yet. They are all great value for what I paid, can score points against anybody, and the Villa boys still have 2 fixtures to make up.

That gives me a core for GW19 of Martinez, [xxx] / Chilwell, Robbo, Cancelo?, Dallas, [xxx] / Salah, KDB?, Grealish, Soucek, [xxx] / Kane, DCL, Bamford.

I have 2.0m banked, which could put Coufal, Fabianski and Anguissa into those 3 empty spots, probably in that order, with one spare transfer to play with. Emi’s fixtures hold up from GW19 to GW31, so I can lose Fabianski as and when it suits (i.e. when I need the cash).

Using all 4 transfers, by also turning KDB into Bruno, gets me to Fab / Robbo, Chilwell, Dallas, Coufal / Salah, Bruno, Soucek, Anguissa / Bamford as doubles, and Emi / Cancelo / Kane, DCL as singles. Bruno’s fixtures from GWs19 to 22 aren’t that inferior to KDB’s, and I would be looking to make that transfer in GW23 anyway (yes, I know, that’s looking waaaay ahead). Back to the shorter time horizon, spending the cash freed up from KDB would also allow a stronger (up to about 5.2m) pick in M5 than Anguissa. (That does leave me with more ”trapped” budget to wind back out with future transfers though.)

Is that worth a BB? I'm not sure, but there’s still plenty of time to chew it over. This week’s transfer will be Kilman to Coufal (or I may roll), irrespective.

(PS I'm glad I ignored little voice. United score 6, Rashford gets 70 minutes and doesn't contribute anything!)

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW14 Review

68 points and rank falls back to 160,000.

The gameweek started well - I got away with Salah and banked Robbo's points. But then Bruno crushed me. Shifting Vardy out for Kane (and captaining Kane) did as well. and then Chilwell...

Looking forwards, I am expecting to roll through GW15 which (assuming Chilwell is confirmed to miss) will give me:

Martinez, (Forster)
Robertson, Cancelo, Dallas (Chilwell, Kilman)
Salah (c), KDB (v), Grealish, Soucek, (Stephens)
Kane, Calvert-Lewin, Bamford

I am settled on FH18. GW19, and whether it’s a BB or a TC play, is still a bit of a mystery to me. I thought I had half a plan for a BB, but the query over Chilwell and the possibility that Kilman starts at home to West Brom in GW19 has scrambled my thinking a little.

The one thing I have landed on is that, despite my past preparedness to let him slide, I am now fairly certain Bruno will replace KDB from GW16.

(RE- the GW19 brain-scramble, keeping Kilman could allow a GW19 line-up of:
Martinez, [Meslier/McCarthy*] / Chilwell*, Robbo*, [Coufal*], Dallas*, Kilman / Salah*, Bruno*, Grealish, Soucek*, [Maddison/Mount*] / Kane, DCL, Bamford*, or perhaps Bowen in the vacant midfield spot with Mendy or Fabianski in the second goalkeeper spot. The Mount/Maddison line-up is set up a little better for the following weeks.)

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Without Fernandes and given the Salah rumours I too would have captained Kane in your position. Unfortunate outcome but the right choice heading in to the GW

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

Thanks SP. I know it was the right call - I was just grumpy that Fernandes bit me so hard in the week that I thought he would!

Ignore my GW18/19 scribbles: they are the ramblings of a confused soul. I haven't attempted to factor in the implications of a GW26 yet.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW15 Review

46 points and rank drifts out to 190,000.

I transferred Coufal in for Kilman, leaving me with a bank of 1.5m. I then chose to start Coufal ahead of Soucek, which wasn’t so clever.

KdB to Bruno is my GW16 transfer (to which I have now added a slightly impetuous DCL to Martial, for a -4), to give me:

Martinez, (Forster)
Robertson, Chilwell, Cancelo (Dallas, Coufal)
Salah (c), Fernandes, Grealish, Soucek, (Stephens)
Kane (v), Martial, Bamford

I don’t expect Chilwell to play, so Dallas will come in. The Coufal transfer this past week was partly to shore up my bench during this little congested stretch.

I decided that I had horribly overcomplicated my thinking on GWs 18 and 19. I am now settled on FH18 and keeping my options open for a possible BB19.

Current doublers for GW19 are Robertson, Chilwell, Dallas, Coufal, Salah, Fernandes, Soucek, Martial and Bamford. Grealish and Martinez are not going anywhere, and I could happily take points from the bench from them. Cancelo will stay. Kane is a query – I plan to shift him to Vardy in GW20, so could bring that forward into GW19.

That leaves Forster and Stephens as upgrade targets, with 1.0m to invest. The bank is healthier if I move Kane on as well. A 1.8m bank could enable Fabianski/Lookman or McCarthy/Raphinha as possible combos. Neither path leaves me with too much mess to clean up with subsequent transfers – fixtures for all 15 possible squad members hold up reasonably well until about GW23. That said I will want to unpick it reasonably quickly to get the efficiency back.

Timing those transfers into GW 19 is slightly tricky. The FH in GW18 won’t let me carry one into 19, so it’s likely that I will make one in 17. (Or I may just shelve the BB idea, depending on what happens this coming gameweek.)

(Edit: rank and captaincy corrections)

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW16 Review

56 (-4) points and rank wanders back to 150,000. Rank movement is kind of irrelevant given what went down – I will just accept that I was on the right side of fortune.

My aim was to turn Kane and Stephens into Vardy and Raphinha for GW19, so I have already moved on Forster to Johnstone ahead of GW17. On the plus side, it seems I was on the right track with my targeted transfers to set up for BB19 given my budget constraints. On the minus side, there are so many doubts now that the objective of the plan - i.e. the BB in GW19 - is looking pretty questionable, however the side benefit of getting to 15 playable options has some appeal.

At this point GW17 is:

Martinez, (Johnstone)
Robertson, Chilwell, Cancelo (Coufal, Dallas)
Salah, Fernandes (c), Grealish, Soucek, (Stephens)
Kane (v), Martial, Bamford

Bench order is a big question mark, but that may prove to be academic.

I still expect to FH18. BB19 will be a decision I leave as late as possible. The fact that it takes a full week to get through the GW19 fixtures does not encourage me to chance the BB.

Stay safe everyone, and look after yourselves.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Joccki_10 »

Fuzzy wrote:The fact that it takes a full week to get through the GW19 fixtures does not encourage me to chance the BB.
Why not, if I may ask?

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

The possibility of COVID chaos has me double-guessing the BB.

In a "normal" gameweek, with 5 or 6 matches on the Saturday, you would like think that by the deadline we can reasonably confident that 50% to 60% of matches will go ahead. In stretched out GW19, 14 of the 15 matches are more than 18 hours after the deadline, making the Fulham-Spurs scenario more likely. Given that most teams are doubling up, pushing a match back by a couple of day to wait for test results is unlikely to be an option.

The other concern I have is the short turnarounds. If a COVID issue bobs up at a club early in that gameweek it may wipe them out for the entire gameweek, and cost both their opponents a match as well. West Ham, Man United, Man City and Leicester all have 3 days turnarounds - if any of those teams loses both matches then that must undermine the BB.

If nothing else, it makes the week a bit more stressful!

I'm off to revisit my GW18 and 19 plans. My first instinct is that these 2 rescheduled games are bad news for me. It still only gets me to 6 players for GW18, the headstart I had over many managers in prepping for GW19 has now been eroded, and my calculated risk of moving off Man City players early needs to be recalculated.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW17 Review

69 points and rank sits at about 130,000.

I had 63 points after Saturday (and was half banking on Coufal’s 6 points from the bench when Cancelo would be COVID-ed out on Sunday) so it was disappointing for Salah, Robbo, Chilwell and Cancelo to only add 6 to my total.

Looking forwards, the extra matches slotting into GWs 18 and 19 hurt more than help me – if anything it further exposes my decision to go light on Man City. However, I am committed to the FH18 path, and am willing to chase a little bit of upside when I play it.

My current FH18 line-up is:

Leno
Cancelo, Tierney, Wan Bissaka
KDB, Sterling (c), Bruno (v), Rashford, Saka
Kane, Wilson
(Peacock-Farrell, Brewster, Mitchell, Bryan)

I could drop Wan-Bissaka down (to Luke Shaw?) and upgrade Bryan in case of emergency, but it’s not my current thinking.


For GW19, I revert to:

Martinez (*), Johnstone (*)
Robertson (*), Chilwell (*), Cancelo (*), Dallas (*), Coufal (*)
Salah (*), Bruno (*), Grealish (*), Soucek (*), Stephens (*)
Kane, Martial (*), Bamford (*)

That screams bench boost (COVID permitting), and my previous plan was to take a -4 and use the 0.5m I have banked to turn Stephens/Kane into Raphinha/Vardy.

Given my meagre Man City investment, an alternative may be to turn Salah/Stephens into KDB/Harrison (or, dare I suggest it, KDB/Gundogan) but price changes are taking those options away from me. (I may just settle on Lookman at M5, and he can stay there for a little while. However if anyone has any other great suggestions for a mid at 5.3m or lower for GW19, that would be really helpful!)

Another option I toyed with for GW19, but it will be a -8, would be to turn Robbo/Stephens/Kane into Stones/KDB/Antonio. Aside from the -8, the 3 day turnaround between the 2 West Ham matches in GW19 is a bit of a concern. However (if fit) those 3 are all good options for GW19 and through to at least GW22. That gives me time to work out how to get some Kane/Son asset(s) back in time for CHE WBA in GWs 22 and 23. I haven't thought very hard about that, but it doesn't look obvious. :?

(Going all the way back to my initial Raphinha/Vardy plan, that would be by moving Raphinha/Martial to Son/Davis, or something better than Davis if I free some of the value temporarily trapped in Johnstone).

There’s still plenty of time to settle on my GW19 plan. In the meantime, I am wilfully attempting not to overthink GW18 and hoping, for all's sake, that things stay on track.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

PS My inclination is to stick to my original, no-KDB, plan for GW19. The alternatives are partly driven by FOMO - there's nothing wrong with the 2 Liverpool home games, and a bit of a freshen up after the frantic festive fixture run (with a compromised squad) could see them come out firing in (almost) 2 weeks time. If they do disappoint, Salah to KDB for GW20 is always an option.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Whilst he only has a single game week Saka is £5.3m, has a decent match up against Newcastle and would be a good addition moving forwards.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

He (Saka) is a possibility. I think I have finally come to terms with him missing the Fulham match when I had him in GW1 (as did you!)

Looking more closely, I think I might prefer someone with a better GW21 matchup to give me an alternate to Soucek that week (when West Ham have LIV) - I could happily play Soucek every other week up to GW24. That's partly why Lookman is on my radar for that spot (wba in GW21) and why I am prepared to consider Gundogan if budget allows, despite history telling me not to.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW18 Review

Free hit played, 58 points scored and rank now sits at about 84,000.

Thankfully I abandoned the idea of including Sterling on the free hit team!

I have switched back to a previous plan for GW19. I haven’t made the transfers yet (24 hours is a long time in FPL this season), but I plan to take a -4 and BB in GW19 with:

Martinez (*), Johnstone (*)
Robertson (*), Chilwell (*), Cancelo (*), Dallas, Coufal (*)
Salah (*), Bruno (*), Grealish (*), Soucek (*), Gundogan (*)
Vardy (*), Martial (*), Bamford

Basically, I have opted for Salah/Vardy/Gundogan in preference to KDB/Kane/Lookman. I fully expect that Salah will become KDB in GW20.

The more I thought I about it, the less comfortable I became with dropping Salah for 2 home matches after a 12 day break. It’s a calculated risk to go without KDB this week, but you can’t have them all.

With this squad I can easily turn Gundogan/Martial into Son/Brewster when I want to get some Spurs attack back. (Or move KDB/Martial to Son/Kane if I want to go harder on Spurs). In the meantime I am well covered for the odd rest or cancellation. Whereas I wouldn’t promote rotating a Man City and West Ham pair, Gundogan and Soucek’s fixtures work well together.

I have a rough view of how I might move premiums in and out over the next 7 or 8 gameweeks to optimise captaincy, but that is no more than a sketch at this stage. With rescheduled matches still to pop back up (perhaps at short notice), I don’t want to “bake in” many future transfers as other needs/opportunities are going to present themselves.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW19 Review

Boy, am I glad to see the back of GW19. I have stayed away from here intentionally over the past week, waiting for the red mist to clear. It all started with the early COVID news on Johnstone. From there, with unexpected benchings, underwhelming and nearly-but-not-quite performances, and the Vardy news to top it all off, it has been a long 8 days of FPL.

Bench boost played, 104(-4) points scored and rank now sits at about 75,000. That’s a small climb but I was (quite reasonably hopeful) for more.

Transfers: I opted for Kane to Vardy and Stephens to Gundogan. At face value that looks alright, but the killer is that it was a last minute coinflip between that, or Kane/Stephens/Dallas to Vardy/Lookman/Stones. (The other option I toyed with was Kane/Stephens/Robbo to Antonio/KDB/Stones, which is even more painful in retrospect). The haul from Stones was a massive outlier and I shouldn’t be bothered by it, except that I was so close to going that way. :evil:

Bench boost: Bad decision, plain and simple. You can do the maths on a BB result any number of ways, but the decision was lazy thinking on my part. With Dallas and Bamford as singles, and Leeds looking a little flat and playing without Kalvin Phillips (who, I think, is massively important to them), that was a poor play. If committed to the BB, the transfer option that included Dallas to Stones was logical. In truth, I stopped thinking properly and almost defaulted back into BB mode when the Villa-Newcastle match was slotted in, and I have paid the price.

Having to now sort out Vardy cuts deep. The KDB injury, and inevitable rush of others to bring in Gundogan now and thus neutralise the positive differential I have, is just salt in the wound. My transfers weren’t made with only GW19 in mind, but it seems that may be the full extent of their impact.

The squad I carry into GW20, before transfers, is:

Martinez, (Johnstone)
Robertson, Chilwell, Cancelo (Dallas, Coufal)
Salah, Bruno, Grealish, Gundogan, (Soucek)
Vardy, Martial, Bamford

I am quite happy to have a deep bench at the moment, given the frenzy of gameweeks that are almost upon us.

With half the season done (kind of), it’s time for a stocktake:

Martinez (last 4 scores: 3, 3, 3, 6, sell price = 4.8m): Three of those last four were Chelsea, Man United and Man City. Remains my goalkeeper of choice, has a good run of fixtures coming and has the added benefit of games in hand.

Johnstone (0, 2, X, 2, sell price = 4.5m): Was only ever intended as a temporary BB asset. Will leave my team when the time is right, and is likely to drop back to a 4.0m (unless some weird confluence of events, such as an accumulation of rescheduled fixtures, has be sideways-ing him to Areola, who is class).

Cancelo (2, 6, 1, 7, sell price = 5.6m): Is a steady “hold”. Occasional rotation is a risk, but I intend to keep sufficient bench depth to cover. Those attacking points are going to come sometime (surely??).

Robertson (9, 1, 6, 2, sell price = 7.2m): He is my enduring blind-spot. Is not value for the 7.2m and fixtures are turning against. I always seem to find another tinker to prioritise over this one, however it’s an easy place to release some value. Must pay more attention!

Chilwell (5, 1, 6, 1, sell price = 5.8m): Reads the same as Robbo, but fixtures are more favourable. Again, has survived longer than he would if he was a mid or forward who was underperforming to the same extent. If Flaky Frank can’t straighten things up in the next couple of weeks, this one becomes more urgent.

Coufal (X, 6, 6, 6, sell price = 4.6m): Has done nothing wrong and fixtures are solid until GW25, however they stiffen considerably after that and he will then leave my team.

Dallas (6, 12, 1, 2, sell price = 4.6m): Was only ever intended as bench cover and serves that purpose nicely. Unfortunately I have forced him into my starting line-up a couple of times and paid the price – he’s a boom or bust option who is bound to disappoint in that way. Leeds has a game in hand but simply holding for that reason may be foolish logic (do I really want to hold onto him, just for the chance of a future 2 x 1 point gameweek?). Is not a priority to sell, but I need to be careful not to overvalue the possible benefit of hanging on.

Salah (3, 2, 3, 1, sell price = 12.2m): I gave him the benefit of doubt for the double – well rested, 2 home games, explosive potential – and got crapped on. Things are not right there: he needs to go.

Fernandes (10, 2, 3, 5, sell price = 11.1m): He stays. Fixtures are still strong and he continues to be dangerous. That said I don’t have a lot of value tied up, and a hop off could be considered if circumstances suggest. (GWs 26 and 27 are a possibility for that, depending on what else is happening in those weeks.)

Grealish (2, 7, 2, 6, sell price = 7.3m): Has the same fixtures argument as Martinez, but there’s no denying he has cooled as a fantasy asset recently. I am hopeful that Barkley’s return will help Jack (he shone when Barkley was in the team in GWs 4 to 8). I will continue to monitor but frankly I don’t expect to move him on anytime soon as I still have faith.

Gundogan (9, 3, 8, 10, sell price = 5.5m): The shiny new toy, who appeals more to me as a M4 than Soucek. I am happy to have him for the next 3 gameweeks at least, and his fixtures actually dovetail quite nicely with Soucek’s from GW23 onwards. I would like to think that a KDB absence helps him, but that’s wishful thinking – the truth is that I don’t really know.

Soucek (3, 11, 2, 2, sell price = 5.1m): He has been good to me, and is fine as an 8th attacker. Many argue that he is fixture-proof, however his returns this season and last have mostly been against weaker opposition (correlation or causation – I don’t know), and I wouldn’t want to have him as a full-time starter when West Ham’s fixtures turn. I need to see a little more to assess if Antonio’s return hurts him at all, but I won’t hesitate to move him on to free up funds if and when required.

Vardy (1, 5, 2, 2, sell price = 10.1m): Broken, must go. I liked the look of eve, LEE, ful, but Jamie will play no part.

Martial (6, 2, 2, 2, sell price = 8.7m): Is trying my patience and I really need him to do something against SHU this week. He joined my team in GW16 after showing good signs before Christmas, but he is a constant source of distress to me now. Fixtures are good until GW26, but he is not. He will go soon enough, possibly to DCL (or Richarlison?) if Everton get their flow back, or to Son in a double-restructure-trade.

Bamford (8, 8, 2, 2, sell price = 6.4m): Is also slowing a little, and some of those recent points have been almost accidental. I am happy to give him the next 4 (new, lei, EVE, CPL), which could coincide with a double gameweek, but I don’t want to fall for the same fixtures fallacy as for Dallas. This is an important pricepoint (think Watkins, Antonio) and I mustn’t fall asleep at the wheel on this spot.

For this week, Vardy needs to be addressed. Options under consideration are Salah and Vardy to Sterling and Kane (I am right on the money for this), or Robertson and Vardy to Dias and Kane. I am favouring the former as I don’t think I can resist punting on Raheem for wba, SHU. It's a bit of a hail mary, but I am prepared to give it a go.

I am not convinced I want to go for the Man City double in defence now they are this deep into their fixture run. I can hold Robbo for a little longer, and we will know more about future doubles soon enough such that a “logical” transfer in defence will present itself.

Aside from Son, there is nobody I am really itching to get in, and I am not locking too heavily on to other transfer targets as they may be largely situational (e.g. Dallas could easily become Targett, and Bamford could easily become Watkins, but not both. Holding and Saka are great value at their prices, but the circumstances would need to fit for me to bring one of them in.)

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW20 Review

66(-4) points scored and rank now sits at about 48,000. That has been a solid improvement over the past 5 gameweeks (albeit at the cost of 2 chips) and, despite my grumbles about GW19, I can’t be too disappointed.

Transfers: I made the Salah to Sterling and Vardy to Kane transfers. That’s the 4th time I have done the Vardy-Kane hokey-cokey and now Kane needs to leave again! (I am OK with it though)

The squad I carry into GW21, before transfers, is:

Johnstone, (Martinez)
Robertson, Chilwell, Cancelo (Dallas, Coufal)
Sterling, Bruno, Grealish, Gundogan, (Soucek)
Kane, Martial, Bamford

It seems pretty apparent that Kane needs to go. With Vardy sidelined as well, that forces me into a structure change. However I don’t think that is a bad thing, as it is becoming more and more apparent that the 9.5m+ forward price-point is pretty limiting.

Lazy thinking says transfer Kane down to Antonio as that frees up 4.8m to turn Soucek into Son, who I was looking to work into my squad by the GW23 West Brom fixture. I’ll put more thought into it, but I am more likely at this stage to turn Kane into DCL.

(I still have my concerns about Antonio playing 4 matches in 11 days, and then there is the “is-Son-a-must-have” question. All that said, if Antonio does prove himself to be bullet-proof I may not be able to resist for ful SHU in GWs 23 and 24 – he is an easy sideways from Bamford.)

So Martial lasts another week (at least), as does Bamford, and I still have a bunch of budget tied up in my bench. I am OK with that – I may need to call on some of that bench depth over the next few congested gameweeks. Before the Kane injury, I was planning to roll a transfer (and tolerate Martial) through GW21 anyway. Given the possibility of some bonus fixtures, and the tricky fixture stretch between GWs 23 and 25 (based on what we know today) for Liverpool, Man City and Leeds (and Everton, come to think of it :roll: ), an opportunity to carry a free transfer would be welcome. I just don’t think it’s likely.

Heung-Min Son

For a while now I have been painfully aware of my exposure to not having Son. Further, I had no obvious way to get there without a) losing somebody I didn’t want to lose or b) multiple transfers, to restructure. Despite the blow of losing Kane, I am now more prepared to be patient on Son – I know he has done well playing one out up front when Kane has missed games in the past, but I am not convinced how things will play out now, given Spurs current playing style. He may continue to score really well, however right now I am happier to be without him than to have doubled up on him and Harry. (Am I kidding myself? Maybe!)

There is also the small matter of opting to go Salah-less, and THAT may prove to be a bigger itch to scratch.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Regarding Son, if you don’t have him I think it’s absolutely legitimate to go without whilst assessing the impact of (no) Kane.
Holding him already, I am hoping that they tweak the system for his benefit.

Good scoring Fuzzy - as are all the Goats (bar one). Looks like your brief downturn in 14/15 is behind you and you’re pulling out a lead on us all again.

BTW I have also gone for DCL. I think it’s the obvious play now that Kane is crocked (& we’ll all go down together if it fails!)

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

I really struggled with this one, but Kane to DCL it is.

I don't think these next 2 are great for Antonio, whether he gets full gametime or not. Plus Brighton's home xGC and Chelsea's away xGC are surprisingly good, which makes me a little more comfortable with the decision to swerve Son for the next couple.

You're on a nice little run SP - here's hoping it continues, with DCL doing his bit.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW21 Review

45 points scored and rank slides to 79,000.

Kane became DCL. The Sterling, Cancelo and Chilwell benchings were less than ideal. And I got a reminder of why I don’t rotate goalkeepers (10, 0, 0, 0 on my bench).

I have already made my transfers for GW22 – it’s Soucek to Salah, funded by Martial to Brewster. I have been wilfully ignoring the Martial-shaped stain on my teamsheet for too long, and there is simply no reason to continue to go without Mo given the carnage amongst the premiums. Yes, there is a chance that Salah gets a rest against Brighton, in which case a hit to bring him in for blank MCY could end up looking a bit daft, but so be it.

Clearly, cutting Soucek takes away some of my bench strength when it may still be needed, but I take (a little) comfort that Sterling and Cancelo both have a benching out of the way.

GW22 looks like:

Martinez, (Johnstone)
Robertson, Dallas, Cancelo (Chilwell, Coufal)
Salah (c), Sterling, Bruno, Grealish, Gundogan
DCL, Bamford, (Brewster)

I have 0.4m banked. I don’t know whether to take Tuchel’s comments on Chilwell at face value, but he can sit on my bench (again) this week. He's probably a transfer waiting to happen, but wait is what it will need to do.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

FML Southampton, FML Anthony Martial :evil:

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

So, a 4 point hit to take Martial (13) and Soucek (9) out for Salah (2x2) and Brewster (0). And 8 points for VC Sterling.

No matter how you do the maths, that stinks.

This game is hilarious! 😆

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW22 Review

70(-4) points scored and rank is out to 110,000.

I am not going to rake over it any more than I already have. Frankly I need to stop getting wound up about benching and transfer outcomes and re-focus on what I need to do.

Chilwell to Mee will be the GW23 transfer, leaving me with 1.2m banked and:

Martinez, (Johnstone)
Cancelo, Dallas, Mee, Coufal, (Robertson)
Salah, Fernandes (c), Sterling, Grealish, Gundogan
Bamford (DCL, Brewster)

That’s looking a bit thin for this week – for heaven’s sakes, right now I have the vice-captaincy on Bamford! Benching 15m in Robbo and DCL feels harsh.

Looking beyond GW23,
i) I am happier to have the Sterling, Gundogan combo than to be more heavily invested in Man City at the back,
ii) I have a small headstart on Burnley, Leeds and Everton assets for their upcoming doubles (and can easily add Pope, if I choose) – more thought is required on how I tackle those weeks,
iii) releasing some value out of Robertson is always an option if I need to reach to grab Vardy or Kane in GW26 (if fixtures fall the right way and they are back and on-pace again by then),
iv) I have burnt the BB already, so can focus transfers on the meat of my team.

I don’t know where Southampton fit into all of this, and until they get warm bodies back it’s difficult for me to get a read on that, so that’s another one to mull over. Let’s get the FA Cup matches out of the way first.

In the meantime, I’ll be hoping for Fulham to put up a staunch defensive performance at home this weekend, and for another disappointing week for Son owners. (That’s a lot to ask, I know)

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW23 Review

80 points scored and rank creeps back to 80,000.

DCL’s benched points would have been nice (as would Gundogan putting away the penalty for the foul on Sterling), but on balance the gameweek went about as well as I could have hoped. I may not have been as sanguine about going without Son had I known Kane would be back.

I expect to roll a transfer through GW24, which would give me:

Martinez, (Johnstone)
Cancelo, Mee, Coufal, (Robertson, Dallas)
Salah, Sterling (c), Fernandes, Grealish, Gundogan
Bamford, DCL, (Brewster)

That’s Robertson benched for the second week running, and there’s a very good chance that he will help fund DCL to Kane for GW25 (dropping Robbo down to Vestegaard would be a grand plan if I had any faith in the state of Southampton’s defence). Making a straight DCL to Ings transfer and hanging onto Robertson is an alternative, but I don’t think I can resist Harry for the run of games he has coming.

An obvious sideways transfer on Johnstone could also present itself once these FA Cup matches are out the way and we know a little more on how the fixtures are going to fall. All transfer ideas are necessarily fluid at this stage – which does increase the appeal of carrying one now. In the meantime, auditions for that sub-5.0m defender spot will be watched closely.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW24 Review

93 points and rank sits at 69,000.

Like most managers, it promised to be so much more with 4 players still to come after the Monday night fixtures, but it was a feeble end to the gameweek. I suggested last week that I was likely to roll a transfer, however I instead decided to bring in Shaw for Robertson, which delivered points and, importantly, created the budget needed for a future DCL to Kane transfer.

Saying that, my transfer for GW25 has been made, and it is DCL to Ings. I expect to line up as:

Martinez, (Johnstone)
Cancelo, Shaw, Dallas*, (Mee, Coufal)
Salah, Sterling, Fernandes, Gundogan, Grealish
Bamford* (c), Ings*, (Brewster)

I was very close to benching Grealish, but have Mee sat first on my bench now. I have a few hours to change my mind on that one. It’s a rubbishy stat, but the Spurs match is the only time since November that West Brom has failed to score away from home. When all is said and done that benching decision may well prove to be academic anyway, given the possibility that one of my City bods gets a day off.

I am satisfied having just the 2 Leeds players for their double, as I don’t really want to be dealing with managing 3 of them all the way through to GW29, and there will be other transfers to prioritise.

I have 2.6m banked for Ings (8.4m) to Kane (11.0m). My issue with that, aside from the dearth of fixture information, is the surge on Kane’s ownership this week which means he will probably jump to 11.1m in the next 24 hours. Yes, I can easily release some value from Mee, but a hit to transfer out a defender with a (possible) double, even if it’s a tricky one, doesn’t sit comfortably with me. (My current hope is that fixture announcements allow Matt Targett to fit that bill, as he would give me that elusive 0.1m and possibly a double in GW26 and another GW29 starter.)

Of course if Ings tears into Leeds (well after Kane has risen in price) and it transpires that I want to keep Ings, my 2.6m could instead get me from Grealish to Son if I want. However I expect that is just me spotting a maths trick. Given I have just 3 players for GW29, and no FH chip, I really want Spurs-Villa to fall into GW29, and if that transpires then shipping out solid Villa players looks a bit flaky. Their fixtures are not terrible through until then either. All of which links back to Targett as the enabling transfer in GW26 for Harry Kane who I am hoping will be a TC candidate for GW26. (And yes, I am conveniently avoiding the subject of Villa’s recent dip in form in all of this. :| )

It will all become clear, I’m sure. :lol:

(EDIT: I get the sense that I may be painting myself into a GW31 wildcard corner. Must stay alert to that!)

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