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Fuzzy Warbles

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Fuzzy
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Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

.

Well, I said I wouldn’t do this, but here I am.

Let me start by saying this is as much a place for introspection as for dialogue and debate. This will not be a running commentary – time does not permit, and there will be periods when this space has all the life of the Mojave Desert. However, recording my thoughts and justifications just might hold me to account a little more, (maybe) help keep me on the rails and, who knows, prompt some intercourse. We shall see.

As of now, my starting squad looks like this (spoiler alert, it’s a pretty boring template 4-3-3). My “locks” for GW1 are in bold. I don’t know how long I will run with this – I’m certainly not planning an early wildcard, but I am prepared to play one, or to take some hits in the first couple of gameweeks if merited.

Fabianski (4.5), Boruc (4.0)
Robertson (6.0), Mendy (6.0), Luiz (5.5), PVA (5.5), AWB (4.0)
Salah (13.0), Mahrez (9.0), Keita (7.5), Hughes (5.0), Stephens (4.5)
Aguero (11.0), Arnie (7.0), Zaha (7.0)
(0.5m banked)

At the risk of self-contradiction, whilst I don’t live and die by price points, I am very conscious of them with my GW1 squad. Also, I have some long-held grudges/wounds from FPL seasons past which make it incredibly hard for me to start with certain players (e.g. any Everton defender, any Bournemouth player, any promoted team player at a cost of more than 0.5m over base price, Aaron Ramsey – you get the idea). Yet I keep going back for Aguero – go figure!

GKs: Nothing to see here. I don’t like rotating goalkeepers, I think Flappy is the best of the 4.5s, and I expect improvement from West Ham this year. Boruc could be any 4.0m burner really.
Defs: D1 and D2 are locked. Luiz has been a placeholder for Maguire in a red shirt for a while. PVA is my one extravagance. I have burned too many transfers on defenders in the past, and I want 3 (or 4) locked in early. Luiz is the most likely of these not to survive until Friday evening.
Mids: M1 and M2 are locked. Keita occupies an important price point. I think there are a number of honey traps in the 6.5m to 7.5m price range and I am wary. However, the 5.0m to 5.5m range intrigues me and I will watch the 5.0 to 8.0s with interest over the opening weeks. That said, I’m not prepared to overcommit from the get-go.
Fwds: Kun – you fox, you got me again! Both Zaha and Arnie finished strongly last season and are well in form now. If unwelcome transfer or positional news, there are decent sideways options (Tosun, King), or downgrade to a 4.5 junker and upgrade Hughes to an emerging gem in midfield.

Let’s see how I hold between now and Friday! Good luck to all.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW1 review

I made 3 final changes before the GW1 deadline, Luiz, PVA, Keita :arrow: VVD, Sakho, Sigurdsson.

I lost out on those changes, however they weren't simply about GW1. That said, all up, it was a disappointing start with just 67 points to show for my efforts.

Siggy :arrow: Richarlison will be this week's transfer. I am marginally happier with the 6.5m-7.5m mid talent pool than I was before GW1 and (injury permitting) I don't think there is a lot of downside to this transfer.

That gives me 1.5m in the bank, and no firm plan where to direct it. Mahrez is on watch (but do I want 3 x 10m+ players in my squad?), or a future Kun :arrow: Kane is not out of the question. I'm reasonably well set in terms of fixtures, and will contemplate canny uses of that 1.5m a little longer.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW2 review

This week was a little better, after rolling out:
Fabianski
Robertson, Mendy, van Dijk
Salah, Mahrez, Richarlison, Hughes
Aguero (c), Arnautovic, Zaha.
(Boruc, Sakho, Stephens, AWB, 1.5m banked)

Overall rank is back inside 200,000, which is very tolerable given the randomness that I usually attribute to the opening few weeks of the season. From here on I tend to work in 4 week blocks – not with the precision of baganboy, but moreso in weighing the “value” of an occasional points hit or of making a transfer that I am wavering over.

The 1.5m bank has already been invested – I didn't contemplate it for that much longer - Sakho becomes Alonso. I didn’t think too hard about this one: giving up Sakho when I had Palace defensive cover (notwithstanding the AWB red card, which I hadn’t anticipated!) for the promise of Alonso running at new, BOU, CAR, whu was a fairly easy decision.

This still leaves me with the Mahrez dilemma. IF we get early team news on Saturday, and IF the starting XI supports the move, I will likely sideways him to David Silva. (I actually don’t think that is very likely, but we shall see). Of course another potential move for me this week would have been to simply go Mahrez to Hazard, but I am not a fan of 3x 10.0m+ players in the squad at this point of the season, and I have found Hazard an incredibly frustrating player to own in the past.

From here, I ideally want to carry a free transfer into Gameweek 5 (the fairly pointless international break) when Liverpool’s fixtures turn, Spurs fixtures will be starting to look up (and they should have some more continuity in their squad), and I may or may not abandon Fabianski given West Ham’s fixtures and the hope that another 4.5m keeper has made a strong case for inclusion. Of course by that time I may also have created sufficient value elsewhere to move into the 5.5m goalkeeper bracket, which looks way more attractive at this point.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW3 review

The gameweek is not quite done, but I am. 64 all out, and another rankings boost to be inside 40,000.

I resisted the urge to move Mahrez on, and don’t feel that worked to my disadvantage at all.

However that does mean I need to consider addressing both Mahrez and Richarlison this week. I can convince myself that I have “banked” the credit – working on my 4 week block principle and knowing I have made up some ground on the field, and haven't taken a hit (yet). That said, whilst I can’t help but be lured by the prospect of spending 15.5m on 2 players this week, I know that Gameweek 5 is the start of a tougher run of fixtures for my Liverpool and West Ham assets.

Right now, my instinct is to take the hit, spend the 15.5m, and (contradicting my logic from last week) bring in Hazard and Kante/McArthur. A drop on McArthur last night would have been handy! If it is to be McArthur, that would mean (absent any unwelcome developments) needing to play 1 from 4 cheapies, the 4 being AWB, McArthur, Hughes and Stephens. Given the upcoming fixtures for Crystal Palace (or Chelsea, in case I opt for Kante) that doesn’t look diabolical, however fixtures for Watford and Brighton are not promising so I feel I would be relying on 1 from 2 of AWB and my new shiny 5.0m mid. Am I convinced enough about Palace to have 3 of their assets (albeit only reliant on 2 of them)? Am I convinced about Kante going forwards? Hmm.

My wildcard won’t be that far off – I am currently anticipating Gameweek 9 – so subject to landing on the right 5.0m mid, it feels like a short term punt that could have a decent pay off. With value tied up in Van Dijk and Salah, either of whom could be dispensable for Gameweeks 7 and 8 (and/or shifting out Arnautovic) thus releasing some value, the structural imbalance may be a very short term thing. Writing it down, it seems like a lot of transfer chicanery though.

Positive news on Arnie would be much appreciated. However, I suspect I need to decide by tonight, so I'm not counting on knowing anything more than I do now.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

So, just to round out my GW3 review,

I took a bigger hit on rankings from last night's game than I expected (possibly a little naive on my part), so I need to be content with a top 50,000 ranking so far. The number is actually pretty meaningless at this stage - it's trajectory that interests me more.

After reflection I decided to shelve the Hazard idea. Now watch him reverse-troll (llort?) me. The necessity of the transfers I know I will want to make over the coming weeks outweighs the short term sparkly promise of a hit to bring in Eden and further limit my squad flexibility. His slightly unanticipated rise overnight combined with the second drop for Mahrez pretty much guarantees that I won't be changing my mind on that again.

The plan is now to hold Richarlison, and just switch David Silva in for Mahrez. Yes there is a rotation risk, but he is looking excellent and the fixtures are really appealing. Perhaps I should have taken the hit to do it last week - it would have cost me 4 points (which I could still wind up spending before I wildcard anyhow), but I am now 0.3m worse off for delaying the move.

Contemplating stuff and writing it down can be a bit of a downer!

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW4 review

Sigh.

43 points, a gameweek rank in the 3 milions, and overall rank now just inside 90,000.

However, that’s not the cause of my sigh-sation, rather it’s the Hazard transfer I didn’t make which cost me points (this week) and makes this week’s transfer strategy a little more complex, as I will have Richarlison blanking for one more week, Zaha a massive query, and fixtures turning for my West Ham bods and Liverpool.

Current squad is:
Fabianski, Boruc
Robertson, Mendy, Alonso, Van Dijk, AWB
Salah, Dilva, Richarlison, Hughes, Stephens
Aguero, Arnautovic, Zaha

For the first 24 hours after the game week has ended, I was ready to wildcard, to something like:
Patricio, Norris
Robertson, Mendy, Alonso, Trippier, AWB
Hazard, Dilva, Mane, Richarlison/Maddison, Billings/Camarasa
Aguero, Wilson, Ings

So I would effectively be replacing Fabianski, van Dijk, Salah, Arnie and Zaha with Patricio, Trippier, Mane, Hazard and Wilson (whilst upgrading 2 bench spots from Hughes and Stephens to Ings and Camarasa, say).

But in the cold light of day, I can’t convince myself that it’s worth it. To bring in Hazard now would be chasing last week’s transfer, which is a no-no (and frankly, Dilva could easily have outscored him last week), and I have no more faith (in fact probably a bit less) in Mane keeping up his scoring through the tricky little patch ahead than I do in Salah. Similarly, I still need to be convinced of Trippier, and I definitely have him behind the other 3 WBs. Add in the reconstruction that would be necessary to get Salah back again, and the wildcard idea feels wrong.

So for now, it may be Van Dijk to Cedric, which will leave me with just enough to get Vardy in for Zaha or Arnautovic. (There are a few other potential uses for that little bank as well, if the landscape changes over the next couple of weeks).

The second transfer may not need to be this gameweek (Zaha news pending) and ideally I'd like to get a look at Vardy at Bournemouth before committing.

I also considered the Wolves defenders at 4.4m, but I plan to bring in Patricio for Fabianski soon, and doubling up on Wolves at the back seems a big leap of faith (and I do have a somewhat daft soft spot for having Soares in my team).

I hate International Break.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW5 review

Once again, the gameweek is still winding down but I have nothing left in the tank. 76 is my final tally, and I have clawed back some of the ground lost last week. Ranking is now back inside 30,000 (as of right now), so in aggregate the block of gameweeks since GW2 has been reasonably good for me.

I wound up bringing in Doherty rather than Cedric – common sense overrode sentiment – and I think it’s unlikely that I will regret that (for this week, at least).

I do have some headscratchers this week though – Mendy, Aguero, Arnautovic all flagged, the West Ham fixture run problematic for Fabianski (and Arnie), and the mini sticky patch for Liverpool on the horizon.

Having resisted hits up until now, I can easily reconcile myself to taking one this week. That said, if it all turns to excrement with my flags (and if there is any unwelcome news from the games in midweek), then the wildcard could come into play. That’s not my preference – I would like to hold it until Gameweek 9 when fixtures turn again and I am (hopefully) a little more convinced of the base structure I want to build around – but it will come out if need be.

With all that in mind I have made one early transfer, and it is the Llort himself: Hazard in for Salah. It feels wrong, having resisted the temptation 2 weeks ago, but given that Arnie (at a minimum) needs to go as well, I know that the released budget can be put to very good use. Right now I am favouring Arnie to Lukaku as the second transfer – I do like the prospects of Hazard + Lukaku over Salah + Vardy (say) for the next 3 weeks. I know 2 of those 3 are away games for Hazard, but I can roll with that. Those 2 transfers will leave me a little unbalanced, however it may only be a short term thing. Plus I get to bank a little spare change, to ride a Fab price drop before I switch him out to Patricio.

On the other hand, if bad news elsewhere in the squad then the wildcard is in play, and its open season!

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW5 is a wrap, and unsurprisingly I dropped back about 10,000 places after Monday night's game (the Ings goal hurt) and autosubs. Inside the top 40,000 - I am still satisfied with that.

I have now made the Salah + Arnie :arrow: Hazard + Lukaku transfers, and with Aguero looking likely for the weekend my wildcard will remain intact. (I can cop a sub coming in for Mendy if need be). Going without Liverpool attacking "cover" for the Southampton game is a little bold, but it's a chance I have decided to take.

My instinct for next week's transfer is still to bring in Patricio, however there is a lot of football to be played (survived!) between now and then. I can picture Lukaku (or Aguero, if I see worrying signs) and Hughes becoming Mane and Jimenez/Ings in a few weeks time, and Zaha becoming Arnie soon after. That gives me some comfort that my squad/price structure still stands up. Of course planning that far ahead is fraught - there will be new fires to fight - and the Mendy concern can't be disregarded, but it does allow me to make peace with the short term(?) structure twist that I have made.

I have not had the likes of Mane, Moura, Holebas, Wilson, etc so far, so I have given up a little in team value and that may hinder my future trade options a little, however that doesn't bother me much (yet). In past years I have gone a little harder at protecting squad value, so this is a little unusual for me.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Smurphy Paw »

So far, so good for you

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

Thanks SP. Now if only Koln can turn their fortunes around!

GW6 review

61(-4). A small drop in the rankings: now inside the top 50,000, and a little ahead of where I was at GW3 which is my current marker pole.

This was the week that Liverpool attacking assets could have destroyed me, and they did not. There were disappointing returns from Hazard and Lukaku – it’s not as if Hazard’s away record was an unknown – however those moves were not just about this gameweek.

In truth, Fabianski dug me out of the mire (with super-sub Will Hughes contributing nicely), and I can now look forward to GW7 with a measure of optimism. Fabianski to Patricio is the transfer, and has already been made.

Mendy can stay for this week. If he makes an amazing recovery and plays against Brighton he could go big. If he doesn’t, I have cover with AWB first on my bench and SuperWill just behind him. The implications run a little deeper than that: if Mendy is confirmed as missing multiple weeks the GW9 wildcard becomes increasingly likely, however its not my preference, and if he gets back then I could carry a transfer through GW8 (FPL gods willing).

I am concerned by my Man City exposure. They have 3 very attractive home fixtures in their next 5, but each of those is immediately before a Champions League fixture, plus they have 2 tricky away games. Another Dilva rest will also nudge me closer to that WC.

All in all, I can tolerate my slightly wonky squad/price structure for the timebeing, but only because I know it is temporary, and will shift (either via WC or multiple transfers) at GW9.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW7 review

60 points this gameweek, and rank is inside 30,000 for the first time this season, so I can’t be displeased (or can I?). I did stick it out with Mendy, but have a big call to make this week in terms of the GW9 wildcard. I would still like to push through to GW15, but I am not yet convinced either way.

It sounds counterintuitive, but I still feel that I have not really built any momentum through this season. I think my steady rank improvement is largely down to my starting squad and my patience with transfers – placing a higher value on transfers this year has helped me avoid some of the “traps” – rather than inspired decision making. I have also trusted my bench sufficiently to ride through some of the week to week issues, but I can’t help but feel that I am accumulating problems that will need drastic action before long. (My short-term punt on Lukaku has not helped.) And hence my wildcard dilemma.

Current squad is:
Patricio, Boruc(*)
Robertson, Mendy(*), Alonso, Doherty, AWB(*)
Hazard, Dilva(**), Richarlison, Hughes, Stephens(*)
Aguero(*), Lukaku(*), Zaha(*)

(*) are candidates to go out on a GW9 wildcard and (**) Dilva has already become Maddison for the coming gameweek, giving me a current bank of 1.9m. I think the *’s are all relatively self-explanatory, except maybe Stephens who would be upgraded via funds released by my forwards.

If the GW9 wildcard is on, then the Harry Kane transfer is on. I won’t decide before the Champions League games are out of the way – partly because I could decide to keep either of Kun or Lukaku for GW8. The Man United circus is a right pain. In all fairness, it’s probably the longer term decision on Aguero that will swing that wildcard decision one way or the other. That said, it’s not a decision I will be happy with, as I am still struggling to recognise the signals amongst the noise this season. That is also a contributing factor to my caution in the transfer market thus far: I still don’t know the structure I want and I still have big queries over a number of the marquee priced players.

It was just over a week ago that Kane looked to be labouring and his movement/positioning was a cause for concern. Salah is not producing, looks frustrated, and has now been subbed out twice in league games that were very much in the balance. (And, whilst not quite in the same bracket but under consideration nonetheless, Mane tends to run hot and cold and another quiet performance this week will turn me off him as an option completely.)

Under my alternate plan, if Aguero stays, there are hits to replace Mendy, Lukaku and either Hughes or Stephens (who get upgraded) between now and the GW9 deadline. Zaha then goes, in time for GW10.

So, I have a little more time to contemplate. In terms of the bigger picture, I’m not sure my road to Damascus is coming any time soon!

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW8 review

75 points. Rank* now inside 20,000. Keeping the faith with my 2xWolves investments at the back and trusting Hazard with captaincy gave me a nice little push this week. My one regret was benching Robbo and Mendy (to play a base-price defender in AWB). Simply put, that was a bad decision.

I convinced myself the GW9 wildcard wasn’t necessary and, combined with my lack of faith in Harry, the only transfer made was the early Dilva to Maddison trade.

There will be points hits during the international break, as I rebuild my Pool coverage and call time on the Lukaku differential play. Mendy has already become TAA (which doesn’t appear brilliant, in retrospect). However the Sane/Mendy combo conundrum is a concern and, whilst there is (a very real) rotation threat with Trent, the fixtures are irresistible, the 1m can be used elsewhere, and my bench cover will be decent. There with be 2 further transfers for GW9, which includes cutting Lukaku, leaving me with the choice of rolling with Salah, Jimenez and Hughes (at M5) or with Mane, Vardy and Stephens.

My current instinct is the latter. My misgivings over Kane were validated, and my lack of conviction over Salah (despite the fixtures) has me leaning that way. That option also provides me with a handy outfield bench of Doherty, AWB and Stephens – there’s a long stretch now where I don’t really want to play AWB, so having Doherty as injury-cover or fixture-cover (e.g. if I choose to sit Maddison at Arsenal or Richarlison at Man United) or rotation cover (if TAA gets another unwelcome rest in the next few gameweeks), before Wolves sticky fixtures in GWs 11 and 12. At that point I may shy away from doubling up at the back with Patricio, or I may have lost my rag over TAA! Mane is also a relatively simple sideways into KDB, once I am reasonably convinced (or as convinced as one can be!?) that he is match fit and that Pep is not curtailing his minutes in the league.

The Mane and Vardy route also provides me a 0.1m buffer to cover price changes that may otherwise block my planned GW10 transfer of Zaha to Arnautovic (which was why I lurched into making the early move to bring in TAA :roll: ).

So going into GW9, I am currently planning on my squad being:
Patricio, Boruc
Robertson, TAA, Alonso, Doherty, AWB
Hazard, Mane, Richarlison, Maddison, Stephens
Aguero, Vardy, Zaha (becomes Arnautovic for GW10)

I know it looks like many others, but I do like it for the next little stretch (my arm could be twisted to swap out Aguero and Stephens for Sterling and Success, but that would only be if I see demonstrable evidence that Aguero will miss starts in the league, and that he will fall clearly behind Sterling on expected weekly points. I am not seeing that yet, despite limited minutes again this weekend.)

(*) The psychology of rank is slightly odd. I certainly don’t measure success by weekly rank change, but it does provide an objective measure of progress. On one hand, I could say that achieving my season’s high rank justifies my intended 8 point hit this week. That would be a lie – I accept the 8 point hit (despite my reticence to take “luxury” hits so far this season) as I think it is the right thing to do and it will be repaid over coming weeks, both in terms of points scoring outlook for my preferred first XI and in terms of points in reserve. The fact that I can do so without taking a big step back in rankings is a bonus. What I am trying to say is that it won’t impact my decision making, but it does give me a little more peace of mind, and an ability in future weeks to look back and consider (and it won’t always be clear) whether those decisions have moved me forwards relative to the pack, or not.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW9 review

Bah. 35 points, less 4, equals 31. Rank now just over 30,000 which is ahead of where I was after GW5, but only just.

The early Mendy -> TAA transfer stings. Useless lump Lukaku -> useless lump Vardy is just a bit meh. The only silver lining is that I didn’t follow through with the 3rd part of the transfer plan (Hughes to Mane) and, importantly, didn’t chase points by trying to find an alternate use for the pocketed 5.0m.

However, I now hear the wildcard calling. I was thinking to save it for the fixture swing at around GW16 (when I want to reduce my Leicester exposure and get some Spurs and Arsenal coverage) but I am thinking it will be better used now.

1) I need Mendy back, 2) I am growing increasingly attached to the idea of 4 at the back plus Doherty, 3) TAA is one rotation risk too many (sometimes you need to accept you made a bad decision and be prepared to reverse it), 4) I don’t want to continue to carry 2 Palace “assets”, 5) I am less convinced of Aguero as a captaincy option over the coming weeks and think I can use those funds elsewhere, 6) which Spurs or Arsenal assets I will want in N weeks time is not obvious, and I’m not feeling as if it is necessarily the super-premium (i.e. squad breaking) ones.

Keeping all that in mind, and the fact that I am not endowed with a massive budget, I am currently headed towards:

Ryan(*), Button(*)
Robertson, Mendy(*), Alonso, van Dijk/Laporte(*), Doherty
Hazard, Salah(*), Maddison, Richarlison, Murphy(*)
Vardy, Arnautovic(*), Success(*)

(*)’s are changes from my current squad.

I could change my mind on Richarlison/Success (to Wilson/Stevens say, which also gives me a little loose change). That said, I like the future option of sideways-ing Salah/Richarlison to Mane/deBruyne when both are back and bolted on (or Salah/Success to Kane/Stevens if Harry shows signs of warming up before their good run of fixtures). This week’s Champions League line-ups may (or may not) push me one way or tother.

A strong 12th (in Doherty) is no bad thing, and his fixture rotation with Wilson (if I go that way) for the foreseeable is pretty good.

Hmm, more thought required.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

Pre-GW10 (part 2)

WC definitely in play, and getting closer to a final decision. Champions League, and thinking time, has helped to clarify but...

I have probably explained my rationale already; I have it down to:

Patricio, Button(*)
Robertson, Mendy(*), Alonso, Laporte(*), Doherty
Hazard, Salah(*), Maddison, Murphy(*), [AAA1 / BBB1] (*)
Arnautovic(*), Wilson(*), [AAA2 / BBB2] (*)

The AAAs are Vardy & Stephens (with 0.7m in reserve). The BBBs are deBruyne & Quaner (with nothing left over – hence Quaner!).

Under BBB, if deBruyne avoids a rise this week (I’m not sure that’s likely), I could go with Mane in that place as a one-week play. Under AAA, I can go with Van Dijk in Laporte’s place as a one-week play. Not that a one-week play is the determinant (or the best of ideas).

I can think of lots of reasons not to go with BBB – it definitely feels like I’m trying to force the KdB question – yet I still can’t let it go. Bypassing the chance to participate in the MCY attack is tough to commit.

2 days to decide.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Looks like you’re getting close
Your back 5 look very strong. A one week play and a planned transfer for immediately after a wildcard is something I would personally seek to avoid though with either option good for the medium term.

KDB. Hmm. I think we’re all going to want him. Some will go now (& you have the ideal opportunity) but in two or three game weeks we’ll have a better idea how he is. Whilst not bringing him in this week is fine, having a one-move option makes sense. You’ll have to leave £0.2/3 in the bank though. Mané’s price looks to be stabilising, but KDBs may well rise as early adopters take risks.

Question for you: I have to take out one of Maddison or Fraser to bring in Salah. Retaining Fraser would leave me £1.3m in the bank. That’d help me do, say, Trippier to Mendy, Mané to KDB in 3 GWs (allowing for some price movement) and still have some spare. However Maddison should score a little better than Fraser over the next few weeks with near perfect fixtures. What do you think?

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

Thanks SP. Deep down, I agree re- KDB, and with tot, SOU, MNU in his next 3 he's not screaming "must get", especially when Mane has CAR, ars, FUL. Just the same, the decision is still not made - BBB with Mane (with or without a guaranteed avenue to trade to KDB) isn't horrible.

Your decision is an interesting one - Maddison not only gives you a higher points expectation, but it's also a decision you can back in as (gods willing) you will want to play him in each of the next 8 gameweeks. Moving Trippier on soon makes sense, given Spurs upcoming run, though if you hold him this week you can hold for a further couple of weeks (if you can cope with having no MCY representation). You could go Laporte rather than Mendy when you decide to pull the trigger, but the future Mane->KDB move still looks like it will squeeze your budget if you hold onto Maddison. The other question would be how much faith you have in Ings and Mitro. Fraser's next 3 aren't THAT bad (you will want him as an option given AWB's coming fixtures and tricky GWs 11 and 12 for Doherty), so the pocketed cash could also come in handy in one of those spots. That's a difficulty you (we!) create when going so light up-front.
Sooooo, my coin toss says keep Fraser, but that's just me!

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Thanks
Yours is a nice decision to have to make. You can kick the KDB decision down the road a bit if you don’t get him now. Do settle on a defender though (plus the extra transfer in hand will give you flexibility for a 2-move switch to KDB if he becomes a have to have)

In my case Arnautovic coming in answers a number of your rotation questions. He’ll play pretty much every one of the next few. That keeps AWB away from the first 11. Likewise Højbjerg, who might get a run out against Watford, but that’s not the end of the world.
With that in mind I am coming around to the thought that Laporte and Maddison might be the way forward. I will only know with hindsight, but overall I think that the pair of them have better fixtures and prospects than Mendy and Fraser.

As for being light up front, the GW15/16 play will be to ditch one of the expensive midfielders in pursuit of Kane, should by then he be playing up front and Spurs be showing better form

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

Oh yes, it’s Laporte for me in that D4 spot, and he’s a stayer.

For you, Laporte rather than Mendy feels like the right decision (when that time comes). Plus Mendy is sexier to the masses, so Laporte’s price is less likely to run away from you.

And that makes Maddison more keepable, plus you get the (actual and psychological) advantage of having one more “locked in” spot for a good run of weeks.

And yes to the structure switch at GWs 15/16, although my current thinking is more towards Laca from GW16 (and Trippier from 15), but that’s waaaay down the road!

Good luck for this week and beyond, and thanks for the input.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW10 review

WC played, and I went the BBB road. 89 points, and rank back inside 20,000.

The 1 week recovery is nice. More importantly, despite only getting 10 on the park this week, I am happy with how the squad is placed for the coming period and I can (hopefully) bank a transfer in the next couple of gameweeks.

My only reflection points, now that the gameweek is done, are my change in heart on Ryan (kept Patricio) and Arnie.

There was always potential for an immediate sting in the tail on Ryan/Patricio given they were directly matched in GW10 and, whilst the underlying stats pointed towards points galore for Wolves defenders and keeper, the outcome was the opposite. It was a lineball decision, with my switch to Button as backup being a tick in the Ryan column (I thought, until Button went missing), however I do believe that over the long run, whilst Ryan is a very good shotstopper, Wolves will keep more cleansheets. Doherty occupies one of my “rotate in and out” spots, so I am not fully doubling down on the Wolves defence with Patricio. (And if I was a full-on advocate for that double-down, the value in Bennett at 4.2m overshadows Patricio anyways.)

The Arnie disappearance feels like karma – I had him earlier, but transferred him out immediately before he unexpectedly missed the Chelsea game – so now that karma has taught me a lesson, I would be very grateful if karma would now allow Arnie an unbroken run back in the starting line-up. :)

Let’s be honest, I am nitpicking. I am happy with the decision to play the WC, happy with the thought process, and happy with the foundations set for the weeks ahead.

I am not fully wedded to my structure as something I will persist with, with just 17.7m invested in my front 3 (the “imbalance” looks even more dramatic when your 7m striker doesn’t show up!). One carried transfer will give me a straightforward avenue to switch it about when I feel compelled to do so.

If no significant unwelcome developments during the week I intend to roll this week’s transfer.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW11 review

Hudd-Fulham is still to come but that’s completely irrelevant to me. I managed just 45 points this week and rank has plummeted to, as of now, back to just inside 40,000. Captaining Salah wasn’t successful, but with the game-time doubt over Hazard, who I had pegged for captaincy this week, that was the way I went. (I briefly considered Mendy, but after his calamitous performance last week I wasn’t even convinced he would make it onto the park).

What a difference 24 hours makes. I wasn’t looking too bad after Saturday’s games but come Sunday, my lack of Man City attacking assets hurt me badly. Whilst my ideal (and, let’s be frank, incredibly unlikely!) result was 0-0 given my Mendy-Laporte double-up, 6-1 was about as bad as it could have been.

Saying that, when you hop from one big-hitter (Aguero to Salah) as I did on my WC last week, it can bite you pretty quickly and you just need to accept it. The prospect of both Cardiff and Fulham at home for Mo in GWs 10, 11 and 12 was convincing enough for me and, time over, I would make the same decision again.

I finished up making one transfer for GW11: Patricio -> Fabianski, which made bog-all difference to my score this week. The switch was partly fixtures-related, but also partly in deference to a nagging doubt I have over Wolves’ ability to continue to keep it as tight at the back as they have so far. I was happy to make the transfer in the end as, fingers crossed, looking at my likely GW12 line-up I saw this coming week to be a good opportunity to roll a transfer.

Absent any injury, I will bank a transfer this week. Sterling is on the radar, but can wait until Mo has had his way with Fulham.

Looking further out, Lacazette is a target (for GW16). I am half-interested / half-wary of Martial so will watch for the time being. I am also keeping an eye on West Ham midfielders.
Salah will exit stage-left again, whilst also in the gun, at some point in the not-too-distant-future, are:
a) Wilson (I am not desperate to get rid – I can bench for mcy in GW14 if need be),
b) Maddison (similarly, I’m not feeling the urgency – I know there are good reasons to be concerned, but the next 4 matchups are appealing), and
c) Mane (who I just don’t trust).

I need to see somebody at Spurs give me reason to believe before I jump in to take advantage of that fixture run. I need to map all that out, but there’s no hurry yet.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

Transfer thoughts

So I had some time to think through some possibilities today.

With all the usual disclaimers about injuries etc, by GW16 I expect to have turned Salah, Maddison and Wilson into Sterling, Lacazette and Ings (or Jiminez).

It needs a couple of enabling transfers in my final 2 bench spots (currently Murphy and Quaner), so it pretty much accounts for all free transfers between now and then.

It also means I keep Mané, and my prevailing structure shifts from 4/4/2 to 4/3/3 (with Doherty as first sub and a handy rotation option - which is what tilts me towards Ings rather than Jiminez).

Stickied. :mrgreen:

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW12 review

57 points. Rank barely moved. Once again, a Man City clean sheet would have made a world of difference, but it was not to be.

I did roll last week’s transfer, but I have spent it already as I have very little leeway for price changes for the squad that I (currently!) want to have by GW16.

Sterling and Jimenez replace Salah and Quaner, giving me –

Fabianski, Button
Robertson, Laporte, Alonso, Mendy, Doherty
Hazard, Sterling, Mane, Maddison, Murphy
Arnautovic, Wilson, Jimenez

The Maddison injury is annoying, as I was planning on moving him on after GW15. All else being equal, with the addition of Jimenez my bench depth means that benching Maddison in GW14 wouldn’t be out of the question, and I could reconcile myself to benching him in GW13 as well. I would prefer not to take a hit to move him out, however a further price drop could push me over the edge.

I will keep monitoring that one – I have not heard anything further since the presser. With a maximum of 7.2m to spend on a replacement to cover the next 3 gameweeks, form and fixtures strongly suggest Richarlison as the target especially when I am well set up for GW14 (when Everton are at Liverpool) without him. However Rich is an injury query as well (and Shaqiri is just too punty!)

I am also quietly hoping for a Dale Stephens price drop over the next few weeks, as an eventual 4.3m M5 when I make my GW16 transfers. I’m getting waaaay ahead of myself now.

It’s going to be a long International Break.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW13 review

64 points, over and out. Rank improved, to be up around 20,000 but will drop a little after tomorrow night’s match. Captaining Sterling was the prime reason for this week’s gain.

I took the 4 point hit in the end, to bring in Richarlison for Maddison, once convinced of Richarlison’s fitness. (I covered the 4 points, but not really in the way I had hoped!). It meant holding Mendy for another week, and he and Arnie were parked on my bench.

Bringing Jimenez in as a temporary 12th outfielder – partly to allow me to sit Arnie and Wilson for their matches against City – has made it easier to be patient with Mendy (and, dare I say it, perhaps with Arnie this week).

This week’s transfer has been made already: Mendy :arrow: TAA. Those 2 have continuously occupied that D3 spot in my squad throughout this season, and that’s the third time I have hopped between the two of them (GW9, GW10 and now GW14). It means I am more exposed to rotation pain over the coming period of fixture compression, with TAA, Robertson and Sterling all prone to the odd rest, but I am prepared to run with it. I did consider Keane over TAA, but am prepared to trust my bench to cover a rest for one of my first choicers when needed.

My squad is now as follows, and I am considering a 5/3/2 for GW14:

Fabianski, Button
Robertson, Laporte, Alonso, TAA, Doherty
Hazard, Sterling, Mane, Richarlison, Murphy
Arnautovic, Jimenez, Wilson

Add in 1.5m banked, and further value “virtually banked” in Jimenez and Murphy for when I decide to drop one of them back down to a bench junker, and I will have a number of options open when fixtures turn at GW15/16. I am not fully decided on my direction from there and will be paying very close attention (which I normally do anyway :)) to the NLD. It’s pretty unusual for me to have reached 1/3rd of the way into the season without once having a Spurs or Arsenal player in my squad. I guess that links to my current state of indecision – I have simply had more conviction in the City and Liverpool assets and, when you add in the two Chelsea boys, I just haven’t seen comparable value at Spurs or Arsenal. Yet.

Harry Kane, Spurs midfielder of choice, and Aubameyang are all possible candidates. The Lacazette injury makes Aubameyang more interesting than he was a couple of weeks ago. Kane would mean losing Hazard. Similarly Aubameyang, although I could get to him via Mane. Spurs midfielder would likely be for Richarlison and Jimenez. It’s possible to go straight from Richarlison to Son, but that feels a little meh. Still plenty of time to watch and work through the possibilities, or for some unanticipated crisis to arise somewhere that will make all plans redundant!

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW14 review

72 points, and another step forward in the rankings to be just outside 10,000.

Kane comes in for GW15 at the expense of Hazard (enabled by Jimenez to 4.4m mid, and a 4 point hit).

Sterling and Kane are now my 2 “go to” captaincy choices. I expect Kane to at least match Hazard over the coming run of gameweeks. I don’t feel that I could captain Hazard at the moment, plus I want the relative security of Kane as my VC (or C) in the odd week that Sterling gets a rest. It sounds a little like loss aversion when I describe it like that, but I am happy with the decision.

My squad is now:

Fabianski, Button
Robertson, Laporte, Alonso, TAA, Doherty
Sterling, Mane, Richarlison, Murphy, Hogg
Kane, Arnautovic, Wilson

Anderson is appealing for that 3rd midfield spot. I still have 1.5m banked, so Son or Ramsey are also both feasible as Richarlison replacements. That said, as much as I like both of them, I can't grade either of them any more highly than "feasible" just yet given the high rotation risk on each. Heck, Ramsey isn't even a starter, yet. Even if Ramsey starts in midweek, I think there's a high chance that he misses the Huddersfield game this weekend.

When all is said and done, Richarlison can easily stay for the next 2 gameweeks (home to Newcastle and Watford). Rolling a transfer through GW16 into GW17 opens up a few possibilities, including getting better value out of the spot currently occupied by Murphy. Alli as Richarlison’s replacement from GW17 is under consideration (which means dropping Murphy down). It would be a bit of a punt, but it feels a little “safer” than Son and given that Spurs great run of homes games starts from that week, with Burnley, it could be well rewarded.

A future upgrade of TAA and possibly a switch away from Mane is also in the back of my thinking. That could happen around GW20, or a little earlier if Pool start to look a bit shaky and the defensive double-up needs to be revisited. That’s a long way off, but I have made a mental sticky note.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW15 review

71(-4) points, and rank is now inside 10,000. I am not getting carried away though, what the December leprechauns give one gameweek, they take away the next. I won’t be making any assessment of progress through this little period until we hit Festivus.

It really was quite odd … Sterling, Mane and Robertson finished on my bench, and I had Laporte, TAA and Arnie on-field, but I actually think the carnage played into my hands. With 13 points available to come on from the bench, I was better placed to weather the storm than many others who had similar first XI exposures. Getting Murphy to come on from B3, after he had busted the Fabianski cleansheet in injury time, was a decent piece of luck.

The Arnautovic injury is a blow (but not a complete surprise, it has to be said). In response I have made 2 transfers for GW16, taken another hit ( :roll: ) and emptied my bank to turn Arnie and Mane into Aubameyang and Anderson. In some ways I’m pleased that Anderson missed out on attacking points against Cardiff, as a rise on Tuesday night would have priced me out (or forced me to move before Auba played on Wednesday, which I really didn’t want to do).

I’m not head over heels in love with my squad now – it is unbalanced and I would be a bit miffed if 2 of my big investments were to cop a rest in the same gameweek – but I shouldn’t think it will stay like this for too long.

I had a really bad run through the early part of December last season with a rush of injuries and suspensions, and took hits making “low value” transfers (e.g. replacing <5m defenders). I am determined not to make the same mistake this year.

Squad is:

Fabianski, Button
Robertson, Laporte, Alonso, TAA, Doherty
Sterling, Anderson, Richarlison, Murphy, Hogg
Kane, Aubameyang, Wilson

I have no bank left to upgrade Murphy (or either of Anderson or Richarlison, to rebalance my midfield a little), but I am sure a forced transfer somewhere else in the coming weeks will provide an opportunity to release some funds again.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW16 review

61(-4) points, rank slipped just a little but remains inside 10,000.

Gave ground to the Salah owners (moreso to the Salah captainers), but I am not unhappy.

I hope to carry a transfer this week, and some good news on Wilson would be welcome, as he would allow me to drop Richarlison to the bench next gameweek (and possibly the gameweek after). That would likely mean rolling out a 5/2/3 for GW17.

Aside from that, it’s a tricky little period, and it feels like now is not the time for frivolous transfers. I would like Son, but can’t fit him in. Wilson probably should depart at around GW19. TAA will go by GW20 if I can wait that long, but his “rests” are trying my patience. An Everton defender would be a possible replacement, despite my enduring distrust of Everton at the back. West Ham’s fixtures start to turn down, particularly for the defence, at GW22 so replacing Fabianski could come under consideration.

In the meantime, an injury to Kane, Auba or Sterling would definitely shake it up, in which case there will be no frivolity!

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW17 review

52 points. Tread water on rank – still hovering around 10,000.

I dumped TAA in the end, to bring in Holebas. TAA was always going to go before GW20 so it wasn’t at all disruptive to my longer term plans. (Now if only I had worked out what they were!? :? )

Kane, Auba and Sterling had mixed weeks – one did nothing but contributed / one was heavily involved and unlucky to get nothing / one defied his manager’s efforts to nullify his impact, and is still a scary player to not have.

None of these guys were 1 or 2 gameweek plays, and I am not rushing to change it up with my premiums (despite Eden’s attempts to lure me back).

I have made this week’s transfer already, turning Murphy into Snodgrass. I thought long and hard about doing this for a hit last week, and it would have paid dividends (as I then would have benched Wilson), but on balance I didn’t think it was a hit worth taking. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but, realistically, spending 4 points to improve your bench depth doesn’t really cut it for me.

Whilst I now have 3 x West Ham, at the price Snoddy could stay when their fixtures turn, which is still some way off. I say “could” because West Ham and Wolves fixtures don’t complement each other at all well! Otherwise I can see him going (kind of) sideways to Ings at that point, when the Southampton fixtures take a distinct turn for the better. In the interim, he gives me the option to keep Wilson through Bournemouth’s sticky GWs 19 and 20.

Looking forwards, if I think I need to release value I could turn Laporte into Digne next week. That said, whilst Burnley and Brighton look like attractive match-ups, I trust Man City’s ability to keep it clean away from home much more than I do Everton’s so it’s not a move I would make lightly. Whilst it releases no value, if I lose my patience with Laporte it will more likely be Alderweireld who takes his place.

So, with transfer done (and assuming no mayhem in the CC in midweek), my biggest dilemma for Gameweek 18 is the bench decision – to play one of Doherty (LIV), Richarlison (TOT) or Holebas (whu). For now, Doherty is the frontrunner.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW18 review

This will be short – we all have better things to do at this time of year (and the next gameweek is almost upon us).

54 points this week. Rank didn’t move much, it was a small slip to now be just outside 10,000. Kane and Aubameyang did the job. Captain Sterling did not.

I have made 2 transfers this week – Wilson and Laporte out for Rashford and Shaw. I contemplated going very early (on Saturday morning) on Wilson and Sterling to Rashford and Hazard (before Rashford's rise to 7.0m), but it felt very punty with 9 games still to be played. Plus, whilst I know there is a bit of it going on at the moment, taking a hit to sidehop a (uninjured) premium, who could then get rested 3 days later, seems like asking for trouble.

GW19 will now look like this:

Fabianski
Robertson, Shaw, Alonso, Doherty
Sterling, Richarlison, Anderson
Kane (c), Aubameyang, Rashford (v)
(Button, Snodgrass, Holebas, Hogg)

Looking further out, Salah comes back in for me in time for GW22. I feel that Salah and Kane are must haves for GWs 22 to 26 (at least). It may be Aubameyang who makes way for Salah (with Ings for Anderson the balancing transfer), or it could be Sterling. Hazard could still be the joker in the pack, which would see both Sterling and Auba moved on by GW22. I am expecting the budget freed up by shipping Laporte this week to give me enough buffer against price changes in the meantime. Plus I still have some valued "stored" in my bench players that I can "redistribute" when we get out of this hectic little stretch.

I can see a second Wolves defender coming in at about the same time – maybe Patricio back in for Fabianski – however I will be watching them with interest over the coming weeks. They have been good defensively, however it’s a small squad and their players are racking up a lot of minutes – it won’t surprise me a lot if they start to ship a few goals against the lower teams in the second half of the season.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW19 review

This is later than usual, it’s a busy time, it’s a short turnaround, and my spare time has been spent making questionable transfers (as below).

Gameweek 19 was a bit rubbish really – 59 (-4) points, and rank is now back outside 20,000. That is 4 consecutive red arrows.

Not doing the Sterling to Hazard transfer was kick in the guts number 1. Bringing in Shaw rather than Digne as originally planned was kick in the guts number 2.

My reaction has been to ship Sterling, Alonso and Snodgrass – for Hazard, Pogba and Digne. I have not played this festive period very well, starting with the pointless Murphy to Snodgrass transfer that I made after Gameweek 17, to improve by bench depth. I will do a retrospective once things settle down a little.

For Gameweek 20, I will go in with:
Fabianski
Robertson, Holebas, Digne
Hazard, Pogba (v), Richarlison, Anderson
Kane (c), Aubameyang, Rashford
(Button, Shaw, Doherty, Hogg)

Salah (+ bench fodder) for Gameweek 22 is still a target, with either Hazard (+ Rashford) or Aubameyang (+ Richarlison?) making way. Either would also be likely to enable Holebas to TAA shortly afterwards, restoring my Liverpool defensive double-up, and allowing Shaw & Digne to rotate for that final on-field spot / first bench spot.

Or I decide that Salah isn’t worth his sticker price.

This squad should be good for Gameweek 21 as well, and I will be doing my upmost to stay away from the keyboard (or the “confirm transfers” button) until Gameweek 21 is done and dusted.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy »

GW20 review

56 (-8) points, and rank slips out to 30,000.

This week, I am completely OK with it. The transfers, and the hits, were necessary to enable me to move forward. I will roll this week’s transfer.

For GW21, I will have:
Fabianski
Doherty, Digne, Shaw
Hazard (v), Pogba, Richarlison, Anderson
Kane, Aubameyang (c), Rashford
(Button, Holebas, Robertson, Hogg)

Looking out 1 week further, my thinking for GW22 is Salah (+ bench fodder) in for Aubameyang (+ Richarlison). Holebas will then become TAA or Lovren, in GW23 or 24.

I could punt Fabianski around then as well, however if the Aussies do well in the Asian Cup I may be able to lean on Button for West Ham’s tougher fixtures in GWs 24 and 25, in which case Fabs stays.

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