Fuzzy Warbles

[Smurphy Paw]

(EDIT: I get the sense that I may be painting myself into a GW31 wildcard corner. Must stay alert to that!)

Given the complexity of navigating from now through GW29(/helpful GW30) isn’t that a positive?
I am doing the same and it at least means that I don’t need to fret too much about BGW33 (for now!)

[Fuzzy]

(EDIT: I get the sense that I may be painting myself into a GW31 wildcard corner. Must stay alert to that!)

Given the complexity of navigating from now through GW29(/helpful GW30) isn’t that a positive?
I am doing the same and it at least means that I don’t need to fret too much about BGW33 (for now!)

I agree, it is definitely helpful from a planning perspective. It will be even more helpful if the Villa backlog is cleared (or almost cleared by then). There's a distinct fixture turn for a number of teams around then and it just so happens that the players I am currently holding that have the most locked-up value are Villa and Leeds players. Binning them after GW30 would be quite neat. It also means I can be more aggressive with some transfers around about GW29 (e.g. dumping Sterling for GW29/30) if I know I am deadending my team into GW31 - that was more what I meant when I said "must stay alert" - it's the impact on how I manage my squad over the next month or so. It was a part of my justification for making what may be a one week play on Ings this week, rather than going straight to Kane.

The only nagging concern I have is that I don't think we have seen the end of the COVID disruptions, so that might impact the fixture landscape. That's just a gut instinct, but let's face it, it's hard enough to plan for the known without trying to plan for the random and unknown as well!

[Fuzzy]

GW25 Review

75 points and rank barely moved at 70,000.

I won’t rake over it, but it’s fair to say the one week punt on Danny Ings was a fail.

However every cloud has a silver lining, and it has strengthened my resolve to flip him over to Harry Kane for this week. That will be funded by Grealish to Barnes, costing me a -4.

(Before last night I had briefly toyed with holding Ings and instead upgrading Brewster to Watkins, or to DCL for a further hit, but in the cold light of day neither of those alternatives are attractive.)

I expect to TC Harry, and to line up (with 0.4m banked) as:

Martinez*, (Johnstone*)
Cancelo*, Shaw*, Mee*, (Dallas, Coufal)
Salah*, Sterling*, Fernandes*, Gundogan*, Barnes*
Kane* (tc), Bamford, (Brewster)

Looking forwards, I currently have just 5 starters for GW29, and will selectively add to that in coming gameweeks.

Something like Salah and Brewster to Son and Watkins in GW28 and Barnes to Raphinha in GW29 could easily work. Follow that up with a one-week punt on [INSERT NAME HERE] in GW30. And wildcard out in GW31, dumping Spurs, Villa and Leeds players.

It feels like I might tread water a little over the next few weeks given my lack of “spare” transfers but, saying that, fixtures set up fairly favourably for my current squad. I knew that was the path I was on – the Grealish injury just compounds it. Fingers crossed I don’t get smashed by injuries over the next month. If another double bobs up (e.g. Everton-Villa in GW28), I will deal with that at the time.

[Fuzzy]

GW26 Review

That was rubbish. ☹

74(-4) points and rank slides back to 101,000.

I seriously need to do a deep-dive on my approach to double gameweeks as this is becoming a recurring theme.

For the coming gameweek I have shifted Barnes out for Raphinha. It’s a transfer I was always going to make before GW29 and, whilst his GW27 and GW28 fixture aren’t awesome, it’s an easy decision to take. I have a bit going on at the moment, so don’t have a lot of time to work through the permutations.

GW27 (with 1.8m banked) will be:

Martinez, (Johnstone)
Cancelo*, Dallas, Coufal, (Mee, Shaw)
Salah, Sterling*, Fernandes, Gundogan (c), Raphinha
Kane, Bamford, (Brewster)

If I was feeling desperate I could consider captaining Sterling, as I recall him terrorising Southampton in the past. However, a) that was a different version of the Raheem who is going around at the moment, and b) I can’t even be confident that he starts that game.

My defence is a bit stretched for this week, and for GW28, but I can’t see a defender transfer that makes sense for GWs 27 to 29 (for a hit), or for free next week given my thin GW29 contingent.

Good luck to all for GW27.

[Fuzzy]

GW27 Review

I'm a little late putting this up, so while just record the outcome: 72 points, and rank steady at 100,000.

And one transfer made for this week, which was Sterling to Bale. The choice for GW29 (and 30) will be whether to triple up on Spurs attackers by adding Son or to bring in Antonio, before WC-ing into GW31.

[Fuzzy]

GW28 Review

It feels like I might tread water a little over the next few weeks given my lack of “spare” transfers

Little did I know how prescient that statement, after GW25, would prove to be.

GW28 rewarded me with 48 points. Rank has moved from 101,466 at GW26, to 99,645 at GW27, to 101,796 now. It’s hardly surprising – it’s not as if I am taking significant bets against the index, but the GWs are speeding by so I am looking forward to shaking it up a little (or a lot) with my GW31 wildcard.

GW29 (with 3.8m banked) will be:

Martinez
Dallas, Coufal
Bale, Raphinha, XXX
Kane, Bamford, YYY

Johnstone, Cancelo, Shaw, Mee, Salah, Fernandes, Gundogan (XXX), Brewster (YYY) benched.

XXX / YYY is an “or” not an “and” so that means I will be taking the gameweek on with no more than 8, and I am OK with that. I can’t see too many transfers with sufficient upside through both GWs 29 and 30 that justify a hit to me.

The transfer I will make is Gundogan to Son (and then turn Mee into Rudiger or Christensen for GW30), OR its Brewster to Antonio (and then I can bring in DCL for GW30, for either Antonio or for Bamford if he proves to be properly crocked).

(That was the part-made plan I had last week – changing circumstances and instincts are now driving me strongly towards the YYY route, in which case I would probably bench Gundogan in GW30.)

GW31 is wildcard time. On my first look, there won’t be many survivors from my current squad. I have a number of players on watch, but still need to work through the permutations

[Fuzzy]

GW29 Review

38 points. Rank is out to 125,000.

7 players became 6 thanks to the Gareth Bale disappearing trick - I regretted that transfer from the moment I made it.

But for a couple of bounces of the ball, I missed out on another 20 or so points (Captain Dallas spurning a Raphinha assist and Coufal and Antonio both losing points due to an accidental Soucek touch), so it could have been quite a bit better. TBH, that kind of stuff happens more weeks than not, but with only 4 matches played it stands out a bit more.

The real story is that I suffered by not playing more assertively – not wanting to upend my GW30 team by taking hits for one week shots on the likes of Brighton.

Going into GW30, I have:

Martinez, (Johnstone)
Dallas, Shaw, Cancelo, (Coufal, Mee)
Salah, Fernandes, Bale, Raphinha, (Gundogan)
Kane, Bamford, Antonio

Benching Gundogan feels harsh, but then he probably starts given the Bale situation. Captaincy is a bit of a raffle – I can make a case for any of Kane, Bamford (if fit), Bruno or (dare I say it) Salah.

I have a transfer available before WCing in GW31, which I will probably use on Mee to Rudiger, giving me another benching conundrum.

My early draft GW31 wildcard squad (subject to knowing what is going to happen with GW32, price changes, second thoughts, …) looks like:

Mendy, Forster
Cancelo, Shaw, Rudiger, Coady, Stones (*)
Salah, Fernandes, Jota, Gundogan, Lingard
Kane, Vardy, Antonio

I am right on the money for this (and will get priced out before GW31 rolls around). Stones is just a placeholder in the D5 spot, and could be anybody. In fact it’s quite unlikely to be John Stones, as Kane plus 3x City is a baked in problem for GW33. Neto could get into that midfield at some stage – he is an easy sideways from one of the similarly priced mids. I considered both Tierney and Saka but their fragility, and Arteta’s likely focus on EL, dissuades me.

That squad screams “weekly benching dilemma”, but it gives me rotation protection and perhaps (depending on how the fixtures fall) a better chance to shimmy through future short gameweeks without needing to spend too many transfers to do it.

[Fuzzy]

GW30 Review

61 points. Rank is at 115,000.

Wildcard is now live, and my current draft is:

Martinez, Forster
TAA, Shaw, Rudiger, Sanchez, Masuaka
Salah, Bruno, Lingard, Jota, Son
Kane, Iheanacho, Wood

Son and Wood become Vardy and Raphinha after GW32.

Alternatively that could wait until GW34. Allowing for anticipated benchings, the difference is:
GW33: Wood (wol) vs Vardy (CPL)
GW34: Son (SHF), Wood (whu) vs Vardy (sou), Raphinha (bri)

The other option I have considered is to bypass Son, and go into GW31 with the Vardy and Raphinha pairing. That is probably sub-optimal, unless Vardy goes off against West Brom in GW32, but it does eliminate the 2 built-in trades (and, less importantly, allows me to preserve the 0.2m I currently have embedded in Raphinha).

If I thought there was a danger of Son missing one of the matches in the double gameweek, I would be more inclined to go all in on Jamie now.

I have a day to think about it.

[Fuzzy]

Having slept on it, I think I am going to swerve Son.

Aguero goes into the Vardy slot for GW31 (LEE) and becomes Vardy for GW32 (WBA).

My season turns on the next 3 GWs.

[Joccki_10]

Having slept on it, I think I am going to swerve Son.

Aguero goes into the Vardy slot for GW31 (LEE) and becomes Vardy for GW32 (WBA).

My season turns on the next 3 GWs.

Aren't you more tempted and feeling more confident by the security of Jesus?

[Fuzzy]

Having slept on it, I think I am going to swerve Son.

Aguero goes into the Vardy slot for GW31 (LEE) and becomes Vardy for GW32 (WBA).

My season turns on the next 3 GWs.

Aren't you more tempted and feeling more confident by the security of Jesus?

That’s a fair call. I have found him a bit underwhelming in the past, but he is probably more secure. And you can’t knock his recent scoring form. Hmm.

[Fuzzy]

GW31 Review

Wildcard played, 64 points, and rank is at 89,000.

I eventually decided to put Jesus in the Vardy slot, and needn’t have bothered. I would love to have pocketed the transfer (as Jesus has become Vardy for GW32), but it was worth a shot. (Certainly more worthwhile than tumbling into the romanticism of a one-week shot at Aguero, or who really was unlikely to play)

GW32 is:

Martinez, (Forster)
TAA, Shaw, Sanchez, (Rudiger, Masuaka)
Salah, Bruno, Lingard, Jota, (Raphinha)
Kane, Vardy, Iheanacho

Reflecting a little further on my GW31 decisions, I had thought about going with Son and Wood rather than Vardy (Jesus) and Raphinha, and at face value that would have been better in GW31, but in that scenario I would have benched Iheanacho so it has ended up much the same.

If Vardy doesn’t get obliterated by Son this week, I will be satisfied. At the same time, the double Leicester attack appeals as a differential for this little run of games if Jamie can chip in with some attacking returns.

(Not tempting fate) I could possibly roll a transfer through GW33 while assessing the lay of the land, i.e. trying to work out how to handle any fixture announcements. Looking at the GW34 match-ups, I would prefer to come through those 2 gameweeks with a free transfer in hand. On the other hand, if the transfer urge becomes too great next week, then Masuaku to Chambers has some appeal (I have the 0.2m to make that happen).

[Smurphy Paw]

tumbling into the romanticism of a one-week shot at Aguero

Brilliant!
(But you should find a way to block F4C from reading this )

[Fuzzy]

I think F4C is bulletproof when it comes to Kun-commentary these days!

[Fuzzy]

GW32 Review

OK, there’s not much time for this before we go again!

71 points this gameweek, and rank is at 80,000. I am reasonably happy with that, given I went in without Son (and I did benefit from the misfortune of the Kane triplers).

This week’s transfer is Sanchez (what a horrible wildcard pick he was) to Soyuncu, and I go into GW33 with:

Martinez, (Forster)
TAA (c), Shaw, Soyuncu, Rudiger, (Masuaka)
Salah, Bruno, Lingard, Jota, (Raphinha)
Vardy, Iheanacho, (Kane)

I am not putting too much thought into future transfers (Masuaku to Holding would be a definite upgrade) but there is still too much unresolved to determine if that’s the best use of a transfer for the run home.

[From4corners]

I think F4C is bulletproof when it comes to Kun-commentary these days!

Too true.












He'll be back in my GW34 team.

[Fuzzy]

GW30 Review

[...]

Wildcard is now live, and my current draft is:

Martinez, Forster
TAA, Shaw, Rudiger, Sanchez, Masuaka
Salah, Bruno, Lingard, Jota, Son
Kane, Iheanacho, Wood

Son and Wood become Vardy and Raphinha after GW32.

Alternatively that could wait until GW34. Allowing for anticipated benchings, the difference is:
GW33: Wood (wol) vs Vardy (CPL)
GW34: Son (SHF), Wood (whu) vs Vardy (sou), Raphinha (bri)

This aged well

[Fuzzy]

GW33 Review

I'm struggling to keep up with things at the moment, but there's very little to say right now anyway!

53 points and rank is at 75,000. Captaining Trent got me nowhere. The alternative differential would have been Vardy, who would have got me exactly the same.

No trades this week so GW34 will be:

Martinez, (Forster)
TAA, Shaw, Soyuncu, Rudiger, (Masuaka)
Salah, Bruno, Lingard, (Jota, Raphinha)
Kane (c), Vardy, Iheanacho

The news that Raphinha is struggling and will miss again is a bit of a blow - hopefully he's back and at a reasonable fitness level for GW36, but it's not sounding promising.

I have no concrete trade plans until we know more about the run home. I will need to turn hard away from my Leicester overload around GW36 though - Leeds, City and perhaps Southampton all look promising from a fixtures perspective. [Disregarding the added factor of potential doubles, for now.]

[Fuzzy]

GW34 Review

That was horrible. 23 points from 7 and rank is out to 106,000. It would have been worse had I not got wind of Rudiger going to miss and so replaced him with Dier.

Meanwhile Son and Wood continue to taunt me from outside my team.

I need to hope I can get some repayment this week from my Liverpool and Man United contingent, but I am in borderline "don't care" mode given what a crapshoot this season has been.

No trades this week: a) I am pretty well covered, b) I still have big holes for GW36 and Leicester players I want to move on, c) I don't have time or motivation to crunch through the ifs and buts of using one or more transfers this week to chase a one week bump.

So GW35 will be:

Martinez (x2)
Trent (x2), Shaw (x3), Soyuncu (x2) (Dier, Masuaku)
Bruno (x6), Salah (x2), Jota (x2), Lingard, (Raphinha)
Kane, Vardy (x2), Iheanacho (x2)

[Fuzzy]

Looking ahead to 36 (before I get distracted by what happens this week)...

I have 3x Lei, 2x Man, and injured Raphinha and Masuaku. I'm really hoping for some good news on Raphinha!

I expect to take a -4, to shift out Vardy, Fernandes and Soyuncu, which will give me 26.9m to spend on replacements. I want to hold 0.5m back to turn Nacho into either Antonio or Callum Wilson for GW37 and 0.7m to turn Dier into Dallas, so that leaves me with 25.7m, call it 25.5m to be safe.

In contention:
Digne (6.1m): 1 very good fixture, 1 handy one, 1 rubbish;
Stones (5.1m): Due back for GW36. The fixtures are really good, but Pep? Seems as likely to feature as any other City defender and comes at a discount;
Dallas (5.3m): As above. I really like Leeds last 3. I could prioritise as a GW36 transfer (over Stones) depending how things fall;
Cancelo (5.8m): Probably a luxury upgrade on Stones. Promises but has rarely delivered the attacking returns;

KDB (11.9m): As safe a Man City asset as there is. It depends how punty I want to be for the final 3 weeks;
Son (9.5m): Spurs last 3 are good without being eye-poppingly great. Feels like a blocking move rather than an attacking move;
Bale (9.1m): This would be a more aggressive move than Son. Having been burnt by him once (albeit under Jose, so that's barely relevant), I will want to see good things against Wolves;
Mahrez (8.0m): Slightly punty, but has real differential capability. The problem is the pairing (as below);

Aguero (10.3m): Is he a trap? Or have I talked myself into thinking he is? We all know his record against Newcastle, and he is close to a certainty to start at home in GW38. Definitely in the mix;
DCL (7.5m): The safer play. But away to City in GW38 isn't particularly promising, especially if I go for Digne as well;

Not in the mix for GW36, but under consideration for GW37:
Antonio (6.4m), Bamford (6.3m), Wilson (6.5m): All have their pluses and minuses (Wilson's last 2 fixtures are very tasty), but there's no rush to decide on this on yet.

I don't have Pep's crystal ball, but combos in the mix for GW36 include:
a) Stones (5.1), De Bruyne (11.9), DCL (7.5). Spend = 24.5. I could stretch to Digne instead, but that does soften me up for GW38.
b) Digne (6.1), Mahrez (8.0), Aguero (10.3). Spend = 24.4. Cash to burn! And a double punt on Mahrez/Aguero. I'll need cast iron undies for this one.
c) Digne (6.1), Bale (9.1), Aguero (10.3). Spend = 25.5, so right on budget. Punty, in a different way. I am more likely to go this way than b.
d) Stones (5.1), Son (9.6), Aguero (10.3). Spend = 25.0. As mentioned above, Son may be too "template" for my liking at this stage of the season. But if he goes off against Wolves?

(Obviously I could keep Bruno Fernandes and shift out Luke Shaw instead, which changes all this up. However if he misses GW38 away at Wolves, then he may be no safer than some of the City bods anyway. Shaw missing a start and dropping to my bench is more digestible than a forced benching of Bruno).

Today's matches will be interesting.

[Fuzzy]

Hmm. On yesterday alone, the Leeds options get an upgrade. Spurs and City, meh. Mahrez must now be more likely to start at Newcastle (but after that?). KDB too big a risk.

Dallas needs to be the Soyuncu replacement. The two attacking transfers are still up for grabs.

(Holding Bruno, and instead replacing Vardy and Nacho with Aguero and Bamford could be an option, but it means 5.0m or less on the defender transfer. Godfrey?)

Oddly enough, I’m probably leaning towards Dallas, Mahrez and Aguero now. Injuries permitting, I’ll have a strong enough front 8 in 37 (when I remove Nacho) to deal with a benching.

[Smurphy Paw]

City’s the interesting one. Yesterday their EO was less than 5%. Looking for a high quality differential that is where my eye is drawn. In terms of their remaining three league games I don’t read too much in to yesterday’s match. Pep held back the players who will play in the Final.
But as ever it is working out which ones will play, and when. As you’re short for GW36 you can’t afford a hit for someone who doesn’t play. Or in most of your options, two who may not play. I guess that it depends what your appetite for risk is. Antonio/Bamford/etc. brought forward a week are less exciting but more likely to reward you with 90 minutes

[Fuzzy]

@SP,

thanks for your thoughts, yes its the minutes in 36 rather than 37 that are the crunch point. Its the gamble of the points-upside of 2x City versus the downside of being left with 10 on field (or 9 if both get benched). That would nudge me towards Bamford and Godfrey/Keane, despite my deep-seated mistrust of Everton's defence. I'm not sure I trust Antonio enough to go that way.

[Fuzzy]

GW35 Review

121 points. Rank is at 91,000.

I have decided to punt on Aguero for the run in, and have taken a -4 to turn Vardy, Iheanacho and Soyuncu into Aguero, Bamford and Ayling. (It would have been Godfrey/Keane rather than Ayling, but unfortunately I missed the price rise on Bamford yesterday).

Its not the end of the world if Kun misses GW37 as I have cover then – he definitely won’t play all 3 – but it will be a pain if he misses this week. So be it.

GW36 will be:

Martinez
Trent, Dier, Ayling (Masuaku, Shaw)
Salah (c), Jota, Lingard, Raphinha, (Bruno)
Kane, Aguero, Bamford

Good luck all.

[Fuzzy]

GW36 Review

57(-4) points. Rank is at 83,000.

On balance, I am OK with that. The Jota and Aguero no shows meant I could only field 9. Offsetting that, Ayling rather than Godfrey got me more points (and more options, in terms of pocket money). The logical (to me) alternatives to Aguero (i.e. DCL, Antonio, Wood) didn’t do anything. And now that I have Kun I am happy to have him as a party trick for whichever of the final two gameweeks he gets a decent run out. Or as a party pooper if he doesn’t get one at all.

GW37 will be:

Martinez
Trent, Dier, Shaw (Ayling, Masuaku)
Salah (c), Bruno, Greenwood,, Lingard, (Raphinha)
Kane, Aguero, Bamford

Jota to Greenwood was the transfer, using all but 0.1m of the spare cash. I also considered transferring Jota down rather than up, instead keeping the cash for Bruno to Mane in GW38.

Captaincy feels like it needs to be Salah, but Bruno and Kane are close second picks. Bruno is coming off a rest, but his TOG is my biggest worry in terms of his captaincy credentials this week.

If I am feeling the vibe, my final 0.1m might go towards a punt on Aubameyang for GW38, at the expense of Bruno. That will be a late decision, heavily influenced by GW37 proceedings.

[Joccki_10]

Agüero has been ruled out for tonight.

[Fuzzy]

thanks, I hadn’t seen that.

Step up Raphinha.

[Fuzzy]

GW37 Review

47 points. Rank slips a little to 89,000 – almost exactly where it was after my GW31 wildcard.

Jota to Greenwood was a mistake. I should have dropped him down to Willock, or even gambled on Foden, to enable the Mane option this week.

Instead, Auba comes in this week for Bruno, and Greenwood drops to the bench:

Martinez
Trent, Ayling, Shaw (Dier, Masuaku)
Salah (c), Aubameyang, Lingard, Raphinha, (Greenwood)
Kane, Aguero, Bamford

It’s a little punty – fingers crossed that I haven’t backed a bunch of losers.

[Fuzzy]

Regardless of what happens on Sunday, this season has been my worst I can remember. Yes, the competition is getting harder, but I don’t think I have managed it well. Reflecting on the season, and how it stacks up…

Shape of the season
Last season I managed to make some solid progress through the final phase of the season (project restart was good to me, and I probably benefited from a lot of other managers losing interest). This season was back to my “normal” pattern, i.e. get to a reasonable position by the halfway mark (top 50,000 after GW20), and then meander through to the end of the season. I need to work out why that is – I am fairly certain a big part of the issue is that I don’t play the blanks and doubles as well as the better managers do.

Total points (after GW37)
2020/21: 2,341 (and 242 benched points). 2019/20: 2,282 (and 182 benched points). 2018/19: 2,309 (and 173 benched).
(I don’t know what that says – given variance from one season to the next, they’re just numbers to me!)

Transfers/Hits
I didn't take any 8 point hits. 36 points spent on transfers (last season was 32). ”Points gained from transfers” = 177 (last season was 188). Possibly too cautious / tight.

Captaincy
Captaincy fails (i.e. < 10 points) = 17. Last season = 14 (compares with just 8 in 2018/19). That’s just plain ordinary – I simply must improve on that.

Formation
3-4-3 was my most common formation (13 times), which is no surprise. Interestingly my most successful formation, by a big margin, was 4-5-1, however I only played it twice and one of those weeks was a DGW, so take that with a grain of salt. I had most success in 2019/20 playing 5 across midfield so perhaps there is something in it.

[Smurphy Paw]

Regardless of what happens on Sunday, this season has been my worst I can remember.

But on the plus side, you did become Mirror Premier Champion. Congratulations
4th in 5AS and in with a shout until the last month wasn’t too shabby either.
Have a good summer (/winter)
Until next time
SP