Fuzzy Warbles

[Fuzzy]

Maybe not “outrageously brilliant”, but for me he needs to prove his value again.

At 4.5m last year, benchings, 10 minute cameos and dry spells were all tolerable. Not so when he is 7.5m

[Fuzzy]

And so it begins. It was only really the defenders I needed to finalise, and I landed on:

McCarthy, (Peacock-Farrell)
Trent, Robbo, Justin, Mitchell, (Taylor)
Salah (c), Aubameyang, Saka, (Bissouma), (Burke)
Werner, Ings, Calvert-Lewin

0.5m is banked, with the same transfer plan (Ings -> Martial for GW2. Aubameyang -> Sterling/KdB for GW3).

The Trent and Robbo double-up has gone out of fashion in the past week or so (or, in some cases, the faith in Mo) as folks swing towards a Chelsea midfielder (or a placeholder for one), but I am sticking to my guns. That may look clever if Chelsea fails to click this weekend and Liverpool keeps Chelsea out in GW2. If not, then … I will stand in the hole I dug for myself?!

Anyways, back on the defender topic, 4.5m for a Burnley defender is too good to pass up, so long as Taylor nails that starting place. I convinced myself that Justin’s spot in the starting XI is reasonably secure for the opening weeks, his fixtures are favourable, and Leicester will need to (try to) keep it tight at the back. In terms of those I overlooked, a Saints double-up wasn’t for me so that ruled out Walker-Peters. And the question mark over Vinagre was enough to make me shy away. Wolves first 2 fixtures aren’t attractive, and if Vinagre does leave I won’t be exposed to a price drop so (hopefully) I keep the full value of the 0.5m I have after GW3.

If nowhere else to put it, that 0.5m can be used to further shore up my defence then. (Of course I could be scampering to bring in [insert Chelsea midfielder name here] by then.)

Good luck everyone.

[Fuzzy]

GW01 Review

86 points, and a solid start. It was largely thanks to captain Mo, but in truth there are not many unwanted spot fires that need urgent attention.

Ings to Martial will be this week’s transfer, as anticipated. And Auba to KDB/Sterling is still pencilled in for GW03.

Saka is a bit annoying – he was my one “heart over head” pick – and I can’t see him starting in GW02, however I will probably ride it out for another week or two while I weigh up replacement options. I don’t have a huge points expectation from that slot, and Bissouma can sub in with a 2 point contribution again for this week at least.

In terms of that slot, the Leeds 5.5m midfielders are interesting, but GWs 3 to 5 are tough for them. Doucoure and the Wolves contingent are also on my watchlist and their fixtures hold up better, for longer. It did feel that some teams were more "ready" than others this weekend, and there's a good chance that other replacement options may present strongly next gameweek.

(I am not immune to the idea of upgrading that 5.5m mid slot by dropping one of my Liverpool defenders down to a Wolves defender at some stage, but that’s not my current preference.)

[Fuzzy]

GW02 Review

62(-4) points. Rank is about 420,000, down from 130,000.

I added Saka to Podence, for a hit, to the promised Ings to Martial transfer. I am not bothered about missing out on Ings points this week – Ings was always a one-week play. (In retrospect I would be happier if I had backed my instincts on Wolves and brought in Jimenez rather Martial, but there is time for that yet.)

This week’s transfers have been made already: Auba to KDB and Taylor to Saiss, for another -4. The hits stop now, he said, with fingers crossed. It is probably a bit of a Hollywood transfer, but with those fixtures Saiss should earn me back the 4 over the coming stretch. I am concerned by the threadbare state of Burnley’s squad, and don’t have the same conviction in their defensive stability as I did at season’s start.

For Gameweek 3 that leaves me with:

McCarthy, (Peacock-Farrell)
Trent, Robbo, Saiss, (Mitchell, Justin)
Salah, KDB, Podence, Burke, (Bissouma)
Werner, Martial, Calvert-Lewin

Martial could become Jimenez for the Fulham home game in GW04. McCarthy is on borrowed time.

I did contemplate taking a -8, which would have been Auba, Trent, Bissouma to KDB, Saiss Rodriguez, but couldn’t convince myself it was worth it. I don’t mind having the 2 Pool fullbacks when their fixtures are solid and many others are dumping them, and I am not feeling that the structure change is vital (yet).

I definitely don’t feel the need to wildcard – the transfer window is open for a while yet, there’s the fixture swing around GW09/10, there’s the GW18/19 shenanigans, and there’s who knows what other unplanned disruptions that we may need to navigate.

[Fuzzy]

GW03 Review

46(-4) points. Rank is out to 540,000. Trent and Robbo bailed me out a little, even if they did blow the clean sheet. They’re not leaving my squad any time soon.

Martial Jimenez for GW04 is done already. I get Jimenez and 0.5m of pretend spare change in exchange for a pretend striker – bargain!

Gameweek 4 is:

McCarthy, (Peacock-Farrell)
Trent, Robbo, Saiss, Justin, (Mitchell)
Salah, KDB (c), Podence, (Burke, Bissouma)
Werner, Jimenez, Calvert-Lewin

Werner is trying my patience, but is not worth a -4.

I am similarly minded re- Podence – but at that price I can hold through the international break and, if it becomes apparent that he is no longer viable, I can move him on then. Maybe in a package deal with Timo, who knows?

Having taken hits in consecutive weeks I would ideally like to bank one soon, and feel that I can. My bench is weak, but they’re all starters (for now) and once we get past this week, Mitchell is playable in 3 of the following 4 GWs if he holds his place.

I know it’s a way off, but I am already peering ahead to GW08, when Podence and Saiss are both likely to be on the chopping block.

[Smurphy Paw]

You’re doing fine
Good job, you can hold the tiller for Koln whilst we all paddle around in the shallow end wondering what’s going on!

[Fuzzy]

Thanks SP. Yes, it’s a solid start.

Focussing on what I have, rather than the shiny toys that I don’t have, it’s only Werner and one of the 4.5m mids that needs attention and it’s not screamingly urgent as I have cover and fixtures on my side.

That gives me a couple of further weeks to allow the 6.0m to 8.0m mids and forwards to press their case for inclusion (I have a long watch-list), and to see what else the transfer window and the international break throws in our path.

In the meantime, our fellow goats have a little more time to shake things up before 5AS duties call.

[FranckKessie]

I can only second that your team looks really solid Fuzzy. I would say that you have no issues currently and you should soon prioritise to bank a transfer.

- Your 4.5mids look more or less ideal. Bissouma offers security while Burke offers potential, but less security in term of minutes.
- Werner has two solid fixtures, and would be a luxury transfer to be spend.
- Podence I fully believe will start once injury free, Wolves didn't exactly impress against West Ham. The only concern I have is that Wolves spend big in the transfer market. Rumours mentioned Douglas Costa, but latest rumour I've seen is that Douglas Costa wasn't keen on Wolves.

[Fuzzy]

must not PANIC!!

Werner to Son is a lock, so that’s a -4 right there.

Wildcard is very tempting, especially if I am going to take the restructure any further than that.

I’ll give myself 24 hours to gather my thoughts.

[Fuzzy]

Not panicking. Wildcarding.

I need to restructure. There’s too much available value in midfield that I’m not tapping into. The loss of Allison pokes holes in the 2 Liverpool fullbacks strategy. The apparent lack of Wolves attacking edge means carrying 3 Wolves assets is fraught - plus by shifting at least one of them now takes some of the edge off the fixture turn at around GW 8/9.

Off to tinker.

[Fuzzy]

GW04 Review, and GW05 Wildcard

Just to put a full stop on GW04: 46 points, rank is out to 960,000. I shied away from captaining Salah, as I thought Villa would give Liverpool a run for their money. Oh well.

Wildcard is now active. Aside from the two Liverpool fullbacks problem, I am overlooking too much value if I stick with my 12 / 11.5 / 5.5 / 4.5 / 4.5 midfield structure.

My current wildcard squad is as follows. This will change – a couple of these moves were made to protect against price changes (I don’t have a penny to spare with this combo):

Martinez, (Peacock-Farrell)
Robbo, Chilwell, Castagne, (Saiss, Mitchell)
Salah, Son, Rodriguez, Grealish, (Bissouma)
Kane, Calvert-Lewin, Wilson

Bold are locked in. Green, I would really like to keep, but I could compromise on if necessary. Blue are less secure. Red should be Antonio, but for fixtures.

Comments:
- Not in my wildest dreams did I think I would be opting for double Everton and double Spurs! No Man City, no Man United, no Chelsea attackers. If I wimp out, Kane/Bissouma/Castagne will become Brewster/KDB/(up to 4.7m defender, possibly KWP or Ayling).
- Saiss as a first bench option is perhaps poor use of budget, especially given Wolves fixtures, but in these uncertain times I will take that extra security. Plus he rotates well with Castagne (not that I would promote rotating a 5.5m and a 5.0m defender) – I think that reflects my lack of complete conviction over the Castagne pick. Saiss is a downgrade option though, if I decide I need some pennies to invest elsewhere.
- Castagne is a tricky one. We have only had 4 matches to assess him (and I haven’t seen a lot of Leicester, I must confess). He feels like a compromise pick, and I could see myself losing faith quickly. I would replace him with a match-fit PVA in a heartbeat. It’s not a huge step back up from that price-point to Trent, when Liverpool get their defensive act together.
- I don’t have much trust for Newcastle. Right now, Wilson is on form, and pretty good value in that spot. An option is to find another 0.2m and run with Foden at M5 instead, but I find Man City very confusing right now. That also means giving up my Antonio slot. There’s some chance I just run with Antonio in that slot and save myself the future transfer.
- And finally, on Grealish, I think he’s a great option at the price, and worth the extra 1.1m over Barkley (and 1.5m over McGinn, who I had on watch as a Podence replacement, but who I think may be hurt a little by the Barkley signing). Again, if he doesn’t work out for me, there are options at the 7.0m price point and it’s not a huge reach to the 8.0 to 8.5m bracket.

[jacksosi]

I have a similar GW5 WC team, same main front 6, but with Podence & Watkins to your Wilson & Bissouma.

Three reasons for those, i) they are both players that have passed the eye test when watching MOTD, which is something I am trying to improve on this year rather than solely looking at fixtures, but ii) they also have great fixtures

"Not in my wildest dreams did I think I would be opting for double Everton and double Spurs! No Man City, no Man United, no Chelsea attackers"
- Ditto to all of this

However, I do have a plan lined up to move from Kane to KDB when fixtures turn worse for Spurs and Wolves, and hopefully ManC have hit their stride, which is where the extra spend on MF5 is utilised (iii) :
GW9 - Kane Brewster
GW10 - Podence KDB

Obviously all of this will change by then , but nice to have a KDB plan whilst have the Spurs double up for their nice 4 fixtures ahead...perhaps something you could look to accommodate too?



Ps. I have Castagne TAA lined up for GW6, hopefully picking up the better fixture and TAA should have dropped to £7.4m by then too.

[Fuzzy]

Thanks for the feedback

In terms of the KDB plan, in essence I have parked the extra 1m I need to upgrade Kane in one of the two attacking fullbacks (as opposed to the 8th attacker).

The downside of that is it takes me 3 transfers to get to KDB which feels like one too many. To compound things, the Wolves fixture swing (for Saiss) comes at a bad time for future transfer planning.

So while I am banking on getting better value out of that 1m in my defence (to offset the future -4), I might be best off just dropping Castagne down to a 4.5m KWP-type now.

I’ll give it more thought as the deadline gets closer, and see if I truly think upgrading Bissouma gives me a meaningful boost over the next 4 or so gameweeks.

(I don’t think I am quite so bullish on Villa to double up in the front half, otherwise my good friend John McGinn would come back into calculations.)

[jacksosi]

Of course the issue with my plan is you can only play 7, so I already have a benching headache this week!
I am assuming COVID and post international knocks may case some late changes though so the extra man may get played.

What are you thinking on the Kane minor injury? Having cost myself a load of points on the Son Hokey Cokey due to 'injury', I'm tempted to stick with Harry unless we hear anything concrete...and that may solve my benching issue

Alternatively, if we get news from the pressers the everyone is fit, should we be looking at a BB this week??

[Fuzzy]

“Fortunately” you can’t BB in a WC week, so that consideration is off the table. Besides, uncertainty with players coming back from international break would dissuade me anyway.

A wildcard is not for just one week, so unless we were to find that Harry is seriously crocked, I am not shifting him on the basis of a slight doubt for this weekend.

Re- the Podence call, each to their own, but sinking that extra value into an 8th attacker, isn’t for me. Personally, if I couldn’t put that budget to good use elsewhere, I think I value the extra flexibility of holding a little back rather than squashing it in there.

In that vein, I am coming around to the idea of joining you, by putting Watkins in the Wilson slot. I don’t want Antonio before GW8 at the earliest. If I go with Watkins and reshuffle my cards at D3 and 4 (currently Castagne and Saiss), that will allow me to hold back the extra 1m or thereabouts for a future switch from Kane to KDB. A 0.1m price increase on Saiss before the deadline would be handy - on balance one of the 5.5m Wolves defenders feels more secure anyway.

(Plus, and I know it’s counterintuitive as it stalls the KDB move, but the cash held back gives me a couple of other step-up options, such as Grealish to Pulisic, if I feel the urge)

[From4corners]

I don’t want Antonio before GW8 at the earliest.

I actually think Antonio might be better suited against the teams he is facing in the short run rather than those teams sitting deep and letting West Ham do the playing.

[jacksosi]

“Fortunately” you can’t BB in a WC week, so that consideration is off the table. Besides, uncertainty with players coming back from international break would dissuade me anyway.

Of course

[Fuzzy]

GW05 Review

91 points (WC), and rank is back into 300,000.

That was about as good as a wildcard can go, in terms of both immediate dividends and short-term prospects. I won’t over-celebrate it – it’s a pretty rare thing.

I expect to roll a transfer this week, and so (unwelcome mid-week developments permitting) I will start:

Martinez, (Forster)
Robbo, Chilwell, Semedo, (Mitchell, Dallas)
Salah, Son, Rodriguez, Grealish, (Stephens)
Kane, Calvert-Lewin, Watkins

Salah is notionally captain, and I have 1.3m banked.

In time, Stephens and Mitchell will need attention, but its not urgent – that was a consequence of my intent to keep 1.3m in the kitty. The 0.1m rise on Saiss came 24 hours too late for me.

I know it never works out like this, but 1.3m enables a range of possibilities including a few Aston Villa bail-out options if that goes pear-shaped:
Grealish to Pulisic,
Grealish, Mitchell to Soucek, Trent
Grealish, Watkins to Soucek, Werner
Kane to KDB and Watkins to Antonio (plus 1 more transfer for the shape change)
Mitchell to PVA (as an emergency move, if circumstances require it)

Fixtures give me time to assess (and price changes are working to my advantage). Having taken hits in 2 of the first 3 gameweeks, the opportunity to sit back and watch things unfold is welcome.

[Fuzzy]

GW06 Review

35 points (WC), and rank is out to 660,000.

Well, that was a punch in the face. I was 9/19 until the late Kane and Son show.

I did make a transfer: Mitchell to Kilman, to give me short-term cover for James Rodriguez. It wasn’t a bad move – however starting Kilman ahead of Chilwell was.

I am rolling a transfer this week, and will start:

Martinez, (Forster)
Robbo, Chilwell, Semedo, (Kilman, Dallas)
Salah, Son, Rodriguez, Grealish, (Stephens)
Kane, Calvert-Lewin, Watkins

Son has the armband for now.

A sketchy plan (everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth) for the next few weeks looks like:
GW07: Hold
GW08: Watkins to Antonio (fitness dependent)
GW09: Kane and Stephens to KDB and Brewster
GW10: Semedo to Dias

I am right on the money for this, and would appreciate another rise on Kane to give me a scrap of breathing space.

[Fuzzy]

GW07 Review

The gameweek is not quite done, but I am. 70 points, which should pull my rank back inside 500,000 (at a guess).

Kilman covered Rodriguez, fulfilling last week’s prophecy and allowing me to bank a transfer. The contemplated Watkins to Antonio transfer is in the bin, and I have instead turned Semedo into Zouma.

GW08 now looks like:

Martinez, (Forster)
Chilwell, Dallas, Zouma, (Kilman, Robertson)
Salah, Son, Rodriguez, Grealish, (Stephens)
Kane (c), Calvert-Lewin, Watkins

I could yet put the armband back on Son, despite his barely relevant performance this week. Burying Robertson on my bench seems harsh, and I may yet revisit that.

My sketchy Plan A for the next few weeks looks like:
GW08: (Semedo to Zouma already done. 1.7m banked)
GW09: Kane and Stephens to KDB and Brewster
GW10: Zouma to Cancelo

Sketchy Plan B is:
GW08: (Semedo to Zouma already done. 1.7m banked)
GW09: Kane and Son to KDB and Jesus (I could put Werner in the Jesus spot for a couple of weeks if I need to – however some encouraging fitness news on Jesus over the next week or so would help a lot!)
GW10: Zouma to Cancelo

Rodriguez will leave around GW12, if his glass-legs can carry him through until then. That may be time to contemplate bringing Trent back in for Chilwell.

[FranckKessie]

Glad that I am not facing 3,243,318 players with your team and plan. You look to be setup really well!

[Fuzzy]

Thanks FK.

(Now the dust has settled on GW07, rank is about 350,000 so I pulled back most of what I lost in GW06.
I am now leaning very much towards “Plan B”, with KDB and Vardy to come in for GW09)

[Fuzzy]

GW08 Review

61 points, and rank slips back to 390,000.

Must stop the self-harm. Playing Dallas ahead of Ollie Watkins was (at best) timid or (at worst) full-on crazy.

Transfers for GW9 will be Kane Vardy and Son Bruno. I’ll wait for internationals-covid-lotto to pass before making the second transfer. That will give me:

Martinez, (Forster)
Chilwell, Robertson, Zouma, (Kilman, Dallas)
Salah, Fernandes (c), Rodriguez, Grealish, (Stephens)
Vardy, Calvert-Lewin, Watkins

Assuming Son doesn’t drop, that leaves me enough to turn Bruno into KDB (at 12.5m) and Zouma into Cancelo/Dias (at 5.5m) in future weeks. I am quite keen on Ziyech, but given Everton’s fixtures until GW12 and Villa’s until GW16, I am prepared to wait. You can’t have it all.

The captaincy for GW09 is line-ball between Salah and Fernandes, however Bruno is a small differential, and I am still undecided whether Klopp forcing Jota into the line-up works for or against Salah's prospects for a bumper score.

[Fuzzy]

GW09 Review

70 points, and rank recovers a little to 275,000.

If I do nothing this week, I will line up as:

Martinez, (Forster)
Chilwell, Robertson, Zouma, (Kilman, Dallas)
Salah, Fernandes, Rodriguez, Grealish, (Stephens)
Vardy (c), Calvert-Lewin, Watkins

Frankly, I am a little bit stuck. My next 2 transfers were Bruno to KDB and Zouma to Dias and I have enough banked to do both in whichever order I choose. I am vacillating between both (or neither, and carrying the transfer). In my braver moments I bring in KDB, buck the trend on Bruno and (literally) double-down on my decision to dump my Spurs attackers by holding both Chelsea defenders for this week. Then I calm down and go for the Dias move. I won’t decide until a lot nearer to the deadline, and definitely won’t do anything before the Champions League matches are done and dusted.

(I have settled on Dias in preference to Cancelo. His starting spot feels a little safer and, whilst there is definite upside to Cancelo, the fixture congestion from GW12 onwards has me a little wary)

My take on the premos is that Salah is a lock, to be combined with two of the others who I am more prepared to shift in and out. When all are fit and firing (which they are currently not), KDB and Kane fill those 2 spots. Right now I have Bruno and Vardy with the option to upgrade one of them. When I downgrade Rodriguez, I open up the upgrade option on the other.

With that in mind, looking beyond GW10, moves I am favouring are:
GW12: Rodriguez to Jota (or perhaps Fornals, if the shine goes off Jota)
GW14: Vardy to Kane
GW15/16: Watkins to Bamford/Antonio

We’ll know more about GW18 and 19 at some stage, so that will kick into the equation soon enough.

[Fuzzy]

GW10 Review

52 points, and a small green arrow takes my rank to 260,000.

Despite that, it was an incredibly unsatisfying week. Ignore the onfield (it started with Robbo, and was finally topped off by Ollie Watkins ) – I am cross with myself.

I insisted that Dias was the better option, but I somehow brought in Cancelo (I hit cancel on that transfer twice before confirming) as I managed to convince myself I had the bench cover if he happened to lose his place occasionally. To make matters worse, it was Kilman who subbed in rather than Dallas. And now the fact that Mendy came in, and scored, has me thinking the Cancelo absence may be a little more frequent than “occasionally”. My so-called “brave” move of keeping Zouma and taking the double Chelsea defence into the Spurs game would have been better.

Anyway, moving on, I have made the Bruno to KDB transfer for this week. I saw enough from Kevin (in an admittedly favorable fixture) to convince me.

If I do nothing else this week, I will line up (with 0.1m in the bank) as:

Martinez, (Forster)
Chilwell, Robertson, Cancelo, (Dallas, Kilman)
Salah, KDB (c), Rodriguez, Grealish, (Stephens)
Vardy, Calvert-Lewin, Watkins

My premos plan is unchanged. He was disappointing this week but I still think Vardy can keep pace with Kane over the next 3 weeks.

My concern now is that price escalation may force my hand early on the Rodriguez to Jota transfer, and into a 4 point hit this week. I need my Vardy-to-Kane upgrade bank, and if I also need to dump Cancelo shortly then I may feel compelled to move on Jota. I don’t want to loses Hames this week as I think Burnley is a decent fixture for him, but I sense that I will need to make that decision before Jota rises again.

[Smurphy Paw]

Keep an eye on Covid news too, you may need a keeper. Details emerging of a major outbreak within the Newcastle group. If that’s the case and their game against Villa is called off Martinez (& Grealish) would have a blank.
I don’t know how this will play out, just cautioning against any other moves...yet

[Fuzzy]

Hmm, thanks SP, that’s a good shout.

A small saving generated by moving out Emi (if I’m forced to) could actually buy me the extra time I want on the Jota transfer.

Hopefully, as the first match of the Gameweek, we will get some notice ahead of the deadline of what’s going to happen.

[Smurphy Paw]

It’s off
Who are you thinking of in goal?
I’m in the same situation and not looking forward to another hit!

[Fuzzy]

It’s a toss up between Meslier and Ryan - most likely Ryan as it avoids a double up when I need Dallas from my bench. Fixtures are decent and xGC is acceptable, however the eye test is not quite as encouraging. I don’t trust Ralph’s high line so I won’t go with McCarthy.

You’re right, it’s a hit that neither of us wants.

[Smurphy Paw]

It’s also a juggle I didn’t want. I think that upgrading Forster has merit, I doubt that this is the last fixture cancelled. However if I am to do that I end up priced out of the moves that bring Salah in. Of course I can still get Salah but there’d be an unwelcome compromise with the makeweight