Patrician's Crystal Ball

[pokeface]

I am interested in your reaction to this as I am in a similar position and battling with a work colleague. And our teams are different but mildly similar (it’s quite frustrating).

I have even gone to the trouble of trying to work out his transfers each week by working out by seeing what his team value does. (Really not in the spirit of the game at all )

I think for you, the fact he’s used his second wildcard surely the best differential you now have is using your wildcard well for the DGWs?

I won’t make comment on transfers as I’ve royally eff up mine for the past few weeks so I won’t infloct that curse on others

[Patrician]

So how did I respond? The main reason I think it was a tactical error for my rival to use his wild card, was it gave me an opportunity to wild card straight back and pick differentials that he wouldn't easily be able to cover. Possibly not the optimal use of a wild card for me, but with a > 70 point gap to close it is was the perfect time. I was amazed that he got rid of the one player that was really punishing me, Aubameyang and shifted away from a squad structure that did not have a premium forward. This allowed me to shift to that structure confident I could make some high variance captain picks that he would not be able to cover. The result...

GW24.JPG

GW25.JPG

...and now the gap is down to 31 as of tonight, we both have Salah and Robertson to play tomorrow, I have 5 points coming off the bench if as expected TAA does not play, and Aguero (TC), De Bruyne and Sane vs his Sane (c) in the week. With a fair wind, there is now a reasonable possiblity I might have closed 70 points in two gameweeks. I now pray that Aguero doesn't get rested, Sane has a quiet one, and De Bruyne recovers (he looked properly knackered, but must be getting closer to match fitness every day).

[Bobby Fetta]

Great job Patrician. Nice to read a good news story and shows that big gaps can be closed down sometimes!

[pokeface]

Well done on the TC. I didn’t have the balls to do it. Out of interest would you have still wildcarded if your main competition hadn’t?

And with that what do you expect your plan to be going into the DGW’s?

[Patrician]

No I wouldn’t have used my wild card if he had not because then he would have had an easy victory I think. He could cover any move I made and stay out of reach. He forced me to use my wild card really as he had covered any differential I had so my former squad had no hope of closing the gap.

I am reminded of a number of Dod posts during this passage of play. Being clear on your goal is very important, because the right moves are different depending on the goal. In this situation I needed high variance against a specific opponent who I can only thank for opening the door for a very tasty option that seems to have luckily paid off. The irony is that if he had kept Auba himself, he would most likely have been the one enjoying the Aguero hat trick as it was an easy and obvious transfer for the DGW.

The TC was less obvious, and I was in two minds about it. However Salah is not going to have a DGW, Hazard and Chelsea were looking out of sorts, and City really need to turn up the heat to stay in the title race. In the circumstances it felt like a good play.

I can’t really talk openly about my plans for the DGW period because my opponent is a diligent researcher and I would be surprised if he hasn’t spotted this blog . This is why I don’t talk too much about my specific moves until after the event.


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[pokeface]

Hah fair enough.

I’m currently battling away against a colleague and our teams basically differ by 2 players and he has the slight upper hand and is ahead by 10 points right now. None of us have used any chips or wildcards yet. It’s incredibly frustrating and we seem to be matching each other transfer for transfer so it’s a stalemate.

Hope you prevail!

[Patrician]

Yuck. I was in exactly that situation last year (against the same guy). You both end up playing the most obvious moves, resulting in an irritating stalemate.


I recommend you keep a close eye on tips from RuthNZ. He is normally good at spotting left field picks at this stage of the season before other people do. He called Jota before the hat trick for example.

Do you know how your opponent is likely to play the DGW and blanks? That has to be the key phase for you, and I think there is both opportunity and threat. I suspect that optimising too much for those gameweeks may have a detrimental effect on squads for the remainder of the season as a whole. Try to avoid being the first one to wild card, pick a strategy that involves a later wild card, and hope your rival goes first, I suspect the advantage will swing to whoever can out manoeuvre using the final wild card.


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[Joccki_10]

I recommend you keep a close eye on tips from RuthNZ. He is normally good at spotting left field picks at this stage of the season before other people do. He called Jota before the hat trick for example.

And Moutinho before his five assists.

For left field picks in the coming weeks I’d keep a close eye on Duffy, Anderson (whose ownership has dropped to 12.2% ) and Vardy.

[pokeface]

Yuck. I was in exactly that situation last year (against the same guy). You both end up playing the most obvious moves, resulting in an irritating stalemate.


I recommend you keep a close eye on tips from RuthNZ. He is normally good at spotting left field picks at this stage of the season before other people do. He called Jota before the hat trick for example.

Do you know how your opponent is likely to play the DGW and blanks? That has to be the key phase for you, and I think there is both opportunity and threat. I suspect that optimising too much for those gameweeks may have a detrimental effect on squads for the remainder of the season as a whole. Try to avoid being the first one to wild card, pick a strategy that involves a later wild card, and hope your rival goes first, I suspect the advantage will swing to whoever can out manoeuvre using the final wild card.


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No idea, annoyingly this is his first year playing FPL. He was about 100 points behind me to start with, then we worked together one day and I gave him a load of tips and now he’s overtaken me we’re both hovering around the 70k OR mark. What is killing me right now is he has Jiminez and I have the Liverpool defensive double up which isn’t working too well.

I think the one thing I have going for me is he has stuck with largely the same team since his initial wildcard, so all transfers he’s made have been obvious and safe. Where as I have been guilty of overthinking moves, I feel he could potentially fall down at DGW strategy. Here’s hoping anyway.

[Pirlo's Beard]

For left field picks in the coming weeks I’d keep a close eye on Duffy, Anderson (whose ownership has dropped to 12.2% ) and Vardy.

And don't forget Big Glenn Murray.

[raoul]

For left field picks in the coming weeks I’d keep a close eye on Duffy, Anderson (whose ownership has dropped to 12.2% ) and Vardy.

And don't forget Big Glenn Murray.

Indeedy.

Possibly...Arnie?

[Pirlo's Beard]

Possibly...Arnie?

If he can stay fit for longer than five minutes, yeah.

[Joccki_10]

For left field picks in the coming weeks I’d keep a close eye on Duffy, Anderson (whose ownership has dropped to 12.2% ) and Vardy.

And don't forget Big Glenn Murray.

Oh for sure. He might even be a better shout than Vardy.

[Patrician]

GW25 Review: 96pts, GWR 379,344, 1,582 pts, OR 8,092, gap 192 pts

Obviously a good score and all in all a good gameweek, but quite disappointed! Apart from the shrewdly lucky Aguero (TC) the rest of my squad was very underwhelming. Danny Ings return from injury didn't last long, there is another player that has promised so much and delivered so little. I thought that De Bruyne would prove a tasty differential, and he was very close to both assists and goals but nothing. I am now happy with my squad structure and have closed the gap to my main rival down to 23 points. That is amazing considering I was over a 100 points behind just a few weeks ago.

Now I need to work out how to play the DGW and Blank season without my Wild Card. This year I am determined not to ruin my team just to maximise those gameweeks, but it is still necessary to play it just right.

Top 10k again, onwards and upwards.

GW25 Review.JPG

[Patrician]

The Hotlist GW25

Not surprising to see Leicester, Palace and Wolves assets showing up. That is where to go hunting. Feels almost obligatory to get on Leicester for the next period with their no blank GW31/33. Jota is a tasty pick too.

Hotlist GW25.JPG

[Patrician]

The Coldlist GW25

This could be a good time to start thinking about ditching ManU, Chelsea and Bournmouth players.

Coldlist GW25.JPG

[jacksosi]

Bournemouth have decent 31/33 fixtures, so better to bench than ditch, or plan to get them in from gw30

[Patrician]

Yup Bournmouth assets become very attractive from GW30.

[Patrician]

Another Aguero hattrick and have closed by another 7 points despite taking a hit to do Sane and Ings > Son and Jimenez (to cover two dangerous differentials of my rival). Shame I didn't have the balls to not captain Salah. 74 points with Doherty and Jimenez still to play (rival has same pair). Should mean a 5th green arrow in a row. Now a nice little break to see what happens in the FA Cup. I posted my thoughts in the DGW/Blank thread...

Thoughts on preparations without a wild card.

This is going to be an unusual year in that I normally have all my chips available approaching the DGW/Blank season, and this time I have used both my wild card and my TC (thanks Aguero!). This means I have to take special care not to shift to a sub optimal squad because I can't correct it. So my general plan will be to only bring in players with blanks or doubles in mind if they are also players I would want in my team in a normal gameweek and for the fixtures surrounding. This reduces the pool of candidate players substantially.

I think the best plan for me is likely to be bringing in a few players that cover the GW31 and 33 blanks and FH in GW32. The challenge with this is that the GW31 and 33 teams don't have too many good options. This should make for quite a good experiment because normally I heavily shift my squad to profit from the Blanks/DGW, but out of necessity this time I will maintain a solid squad to take me through to the end of the season. It will be interesting to see if this has good or bad results.

Candidate Pool

Liverpool: Salah, Mane, VvD, Firmino, TAA, Robertson, Allison
West Ham: Fabianski, Anderson, Arnie (didn't start this week)
Leicester: Vardy (didn't start this week, scored but also missed a penno), Maguire/Pereira
Bournmouth: Wilson (but probably not back from surgery in time)

Spurs, Chelsea, Arsenal may come into play, which would help enormously (Son, Eriksen, Kane, Trippier, Alonso/Luiz/Rudiger, Hazard, Higuain, Auba)

[Smurphy Paw]

For the sake of the thread, let’s presume that Chelsea would help. Fortunately they don’t play City every week!
Higuain still looked a threat at times today - the positions he took more than the likelihood of a goal

[Patrician]

Agree, I must say that Higuain looks like a complete striker. A tad on the selfish side in that he seemingly only has one thing on his mind, but that is good in an FPL player.

[pokeface]

Without wishing to state the obvious. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sarri moved on imminently. 2 of their heaviest losses in 20+ years in the space of a month, and they’ve looked dreadful for a while, repeatedly saying he can’t motivate them, I think it’s worth cutting their losses now and taking a chance with the cup final. As at the moment there isn’t much chance of them winning it!

A new man/caretaker could spark them into life again.

[Patrician]

GW26 Review: 78pts, GWR 619,630, 1,656 pts, OR 7,335, gap 164 pts

5th green arrow in a row (8 greens in the last 10), and I am now a mere 16 points behind my rival. I have managed to average 67 points per week over the last 10 weeks, but obviously that is fuelled by some luck on Aguero and playing the TC.

A little disappointed to miss out on all those juicy Sterling and Laporte points over the last few weeks. How De Bruyne managed to blank in all three games with so many goals I don't know. In a strange way it feels good to be posting decent scores while at the same time being disappointed that a few of my team are not firing. Because they should fire soon. TAA is now back, so that is a big boost.

Looking ahead to next gameweek, it will likely be a shocker, I can barely get eleven on the pitch and I am heavy into ManU and Liverpool. Various options are swimming in my mind for transfers. HOHO Aguero/Auba (hard to get back due to price changes), De Bruyne to someone cheaper (Anderson and Jota appeal), to fund Rashford to someone more expensive (Vardy nice run, Higuain looks lively). I think Rashford may have had his day in the sun and fixtures are iffy for the next 5 gameweeks. I don't really want to get rid of City assets, they have a phenomenal run after the blank. Son could struggle with a tough GW28-32.

And then I stand back and look at my current squad and it looks pretty damn sweet.

GW26.JPG

[Patrician]

Oooof it looks like hard work to prepare for this blanky DGW period. My bet will be won or lost based on making the right strategy choice.

Considerations

I have just 3 Liverpool players for GW31, which suggests I would be better off building towards a strong DGW team

However I see are a few GW31 players with good fixtures between now and then, especially Leicester, West Ham and Bournemouth. Some of these I consider good solid picks in their own right. So I could shift to 9 GW31 players, utilising my bench. This means I would also be well positioned for GW33.

Chelsea could come right into the mix, and there is a strong chance of a Sarri sacking followed by a bounce from Hazard and Alonso....also Blank week players.

For the run in, and without a wild card, I ideally want to be left with good coverage of .... City, Liverpool, ManU, Spurs, Southampton and Wolves. Toss Bournemouth, Watford and Fulham in the mix too. More DGW clubs than Blank week clubs.

DGWs are no guarantee of playing 2 games for the likes of City, Liverpool and ManU. Easier to pick a sure fire starter for a Blank week club, than to pick a player who plays both in a DGW.

Two clubs have a double GW and cover GW33. Arsenal and Southampton.

Can aim to get a decent Bench boost by targeting DGW players.

It is enough to give me a splitting headache quite honestly.




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[raoul]

I feel your pain.

Like you I have no WC, so the timing of the FH is critical for the rest of the season. I already have a plan for playing GW31 and 33 (so a FH in 32), and Chelsea's cup demise makes that plan a little easier. So is that it? Play to GW31 with GW33 in mind, and accept a FH32 makes the most sense?

I feel like I should have a FH31 plan as well. Only then will I better understand how good that plan might be.

But I am struggling to see what that plan might look like and time is against me (I could hold on transfers this week but a mixture of wanting Digne out and wanting to see if I can get Arsenal and/or WHU forwards in somehow is making me feel the need to act this week).

Planning 2 opposing strategies is what is doing my (and perhaps your) head in. Need to work this out asap so I can focus on a single route.

[ajcairns]

Two clubs have a double GW and cover GW33. Arsenal and Southampton.

Does Chelsea do this too?
Plus also one of either Palace or Watford but we wont know which one for a bit (which also means Newcastle or Fulham have no blanks or a blank only in the second BGW)

[TheRumourMill]

Hi Patrician, wondered if you could shed some light on something. I've been looking at Rashford replacements specifically over the period 28-33 (excluding 32 as I plan to FH then), looking at recent stats (last 6 gw's or so) and also using the predictive tool at: https://fplreview.com/team-planner/#forecast_table

From what I can see in the stats, both in terms of xg+xa, actual goals and assists, and shot counts, SoT, shots in box etc etc, Ashley Barnes appears to be the standout performer over the last 6 gameweeks or so. However, in the predictive tool it has King, Vardy, Arnautovic and Rondon all outscoring Barnes by 7-9 points over the period 28-33. I was wondering why that was? And does your model show a similar discrepancy? Or is it simply explained by the fixtures, with Burnley's actually being far tougher than Leicesters, West Ham's, Newcastle's and Bounemouth's, despite them appearing fairly similar to my judgement?

[Patrician]

GW27 Review: 33pts, GWR 3,504,872, 1,689 pts, OR 9,601

It was always going to be a disgusting score this week, two City and United playing Liverpool. Seems like everyone had a mare though so it was only a small red arrow, and crucially my rival was in a similar boat. Not much more to be said.

GW28 Review: 62pts, GWR 1,797,241, 1,751 pts, OR 8,176, gap 182 pts

Much better but not amazing, saved by big scores by TAA (patience is a virtue) and Robertson. This was very nice as my rival has Mane vs my TAA and I am sure he was licking his lips after the two Mane goals. Aguero profit once again. I am now just four points behind, and treading water in the top 10k with a small green arrow.

Barnes came in for Rashford, as I am slowly shifting to a GW31/33 team (I will have 8ish players), while keeping big hitters with double gameweeks. Basically without a wild card I am going for more of a hybrid squad with decent coverage for both the blanks and DGWs rather than commit fully to one or the other. This has an advantage of mainting a decent "normal gameweek" team and I also have in mind being in good shape for the end of the season. My De Bruyne punt has not paid off so I will be ditching him. Rival has brought in one dangerous player who can hurt me in Sterling. Not at all worried about Mane, it is a mistake to have an expensive player who is not a captain option due to Salah IMO. I have 2FT, but I am being disciplined and doing 1 per week. Sterling or Hazard for De Bruyne depending on how I feel.

Good news that W-B is back for selection, and perhaps Camarasa too.

My squad

Hoping for a big GW29, pretty favourable fixtures all around. Tricky captain choice mind.

GW 28 Me.JPG

His Squad

He is also bringing in GW31 and 33 players, Barnes and Pereira are recent additions.

GW 28 Him.JPG

[Patrician]

Hi Patrician, wondered if you could shed some light on something. I've been looking at Rashford replacements specifically over the period 28-33 (excluding 32 as I plan to FH then), looking at recent stats (last 6 gw's or so) and also using the predictive tool at: https://fplreview.com/team-planner/#forecast_table

From what I can see in the stats, both in terms of xg+xa, actual goals and assists, and shot counts, SoT, shots in box etc etc, Ashley Barnes appears to be the standout performer over the last 6 gameweeks or so. However, in the predictive tool it has King, Vardy, Arnautovic and Rondon all outscoring Barnes by 7-9 points over the period 28-33. I was wondering why that was? And does your model show a similar discrepancy? Or is it simply explained by the fixtures, with Burnley's actually being far tougher than Leicesters, West Ham's, Newcastle's and Bounemouth's, despite them appearing fairly similar to my judgement?

Sorry I missed this one! When I look at the season as a whole, Rashford has better stats, but more recently Barnes looks almost premium. In fact I brought him in for Rashford, but that was as much to do with wanting to free up budget to upgrade De Bruyne to Haz or Sterling, and to get GW31/33 coverage. Obviously the injury influenced my decision and since Lukaku brought his A game, there may be a bit of roatation between the two, whereas Barnes is nailed on.

[Patrician]

FWDs 29-33

A gameweek late and it will change based on GW32 doubles to come, but...

FWD 29-33.JPG