Patrician's Crystal Ball

[Patrician]

ok thanks, So pogba is predicted to average 2 in the next 6 right?

It says 28.7 for Pogba next 6 games. That is based on him being a 4.5 points per game player, but on recent form he looks more like a 5.5+ points per game player (which would be mid 30s)

[fred1266]

https://imgur.com/a/VBePIYL

thanks i now i was reading something wrong was watch that line above lol

[Joccki_10]

I'm curious about the numbers of a certain penalty-taking midfielder called Víctor Camarasa. Is Paterson still outdoing him?

[Patrician]

Thanks. I do have Doherty. Pereira is probably top of the list right now partly because of the next couple of fixtures and his longer-term performance and yes I can bench him for GW24-26 (although 16 pts against Chelsea and Man City suggests he can play against anyone ), was just wanting to check out the opposition, I guess. I had thought about Digne but I already have Keane and don't want to double-up on Everton defenders

Arrrrgh you benched him. Ooops

[Patrician]

I'm curious about the numbers of a certain penalty-taking midfielder called Víctor Camarasa. Is Paterson still outdoing him?

Paterson is better if you look at the season as a whole, Camarasa is better if you just look at the last 4 fixtures and of course cheaper. FWIW I have just ditched Murphy for Camarasa because I didn't have another transfer I wanted to make.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Thanks. I do have Doherty. Pereira is probably top of the list right now partly because of the next couple of fixtures and his longer-term performance and yes I can bench him for GW24-26 (although 16 pts against Chelsea and Man City suggests he can play against anyone ), was just wanting to check out the opposition, I guess. I had thought about Digne but I already have Keane and don't want to double-up on Everton defenders

Arrrrgh you benched him. Ooops

The perfect start to the year, preferring Keane.

Come to the conclusion that I need to pay him every week or not at all . Probably a bit like Doherty.

[Patrician]

GW21 Review: 39pts, GWR 5,513,121, 1,301 pts, OR 22,518, gap 200 pts

Yuck, worst gameweek rank all season, with the majority of my team blanking. I didn't expect a great week with Liverpool playing City away from home, but I had hoped to do a little better than this. I transferred in Camarasa for Murphy, as I had 2FT and no other transfer I want to make yet. I was rewarded with a flag

Thoughts on my squad structure

Premium GK: I am happy to stick with Allison. If I did get rid, it would only be if I decide at some point I need Firmino. I see no point in doing it to bring in VVD. Whatever happens I want three Liverpool players for GW22-31.

Defence: My main rival has a "bargain" defence to afford three premiums in midfield and attack, and I need to catch him up. I will not catch him up by copying, so I am going to stick to my guns and try to reel him in with big defenders. I will shift one of the players to be very cheap, and Bednarek fits the bill: 3.9M, improving defence, very good fixtures GW23-28. Laporte will most likely also be going by GW25. Kolasinac is definitely going.

Midfield: Going to stick to four including two premiums, I still think Salah and Hazard are the best two premiums and good fixtures to the end of the season, Pogba should be gold until a tough run GW27-31. Anderson will make way by GW24 to avoid his nasty fixture run, and a City player becomes a must have from GW28 to the end of the season. So 4 big midfielders will be the shape, and Camarasa on the bench.

Forwards: I will continue with the three value picks, but with Wilson making way by GW24. Ings and Jiminez both have a nice fixture run. Wilson upgrade shortlist is Arnie (from GW27), Rashford (good for GW23-26), Vardy (GW27-34), Firmino (GW23-31, but requires freeing up a Liverpool slot).

Other planning considerations are keeping an eye on the GW27 blanks, and ensuring a full XI, and preparing for the DGW period (this time without damaging my fundamental team).

It is worth a look at this table of in form players (top 15 players based on data from the last four gameweeks).

In Form.JPG

Note the emergence of Firmino, Barnes, and Rashford. Also note how low Kane is on the list despite the favourable fixtures spurs have been enjoying.

[Ruth_NZ]

...a City player becomes a must have from GW28 to the end of the season. So 4 big midfielders will be the shape, and Camarasa on the bench.

Agreed, that certainly looks the best timing for City. The fact that they almost certainly have a blank in GW27 (and therefore will play one game more than most others after that) kind of seals that deal. They do have some attractive fixtures before that (though not many great home games, where they tend to do their big damage) but I think City can be swerved, on balance, until then.

The one that interests me most is Aguero, of course. Partly that is because I am using an entirely different structure to you (much cheaper in defence and 2 premium forwards) but it is also because I'd see Aguero as the absolute linchpin for City when they are chasing (as they are) and almost guaranteed to start every game up until the CC Final. I don't think the same can be said of any of the big midfielders apart from KDB possibly, when fully fit. If I were adding a City player now it would be Aguero, anyway, although D Silva is also in my mind as an option, just not a premium option. 8.5m looks like an attractive price for him to me.

[Patrician]

Yes I agree, and I think for my strategy of just two premiums, a viable plan might be...

GW 28 bring in Sane or De Bruyne for Pogba or Hazard (who both have badish fixtures at that point)
GW 32/33 Salah > Son (because it always works out well when I take Salah out) and by then I will probably have Arnie (fixtures go bad in GW33), who can become Aguero

Or another option for me will be to run with three premiums from GW28.

All getting a bit ahead of myself, but trying to plan much better for the rest of this season

[Patrician]

The Hotlist GW21

New feature! I will post this table frequently, every week if I remember. This is the top 15 players who have both good form (last 4 gameweeks) and better than average fixtures (next 6 games). Consider it a shopping list, and my gift to you.

Hotlist 21.JPG

[Patrician]

The Coldlist

Top players who have both poor form (last 4 gameweeks) and worse than average fixtures (next 6 games).

Coldlist GW21.JPG

[Smurphy Paw]

Interesting

[Joccki_10]

And here am I trying to bring in the top player of the Coldlist.

[Aldershot Rejects]

And here am I trying to bring in the top player of the Coldlist.

I've got 3 of the top 4 on my watchlist. I've often wondered whether the time to bring players in is when they are off-form rather than when they hit form, especially when they have a proven track history. The more I play this game, the more I realise that so much of it is about getting the timing right. It's so easy to bring a player in after a haul or to hold for too long, it always feels more risky when someone is out of form.

[hancockjr]

I think the ideal is when they have a good game against a good team (or run of similar), with nice fixtures to come. They haven’t got the points yet but are well set up to get them.

[Joccki_10]

And here am I trying to bring in the top player of the Coldlist.

I've got 3 of the top 4 on my watchlist. I've often wondered whether the time to bring players in is when they are off-form rather than when they hit form, especially when they have a proven track history. The more I play this game, the more I realise that so much of it is about getting the timing right. It's so easy to bring a player in after a haul or to hold for too long, it always feels more risky when someone is out of form.

Agreed. I think this could be typified as high risk high reward play. Sterling is too expensive though, imo.

I think the ideal is when they have a good game against a good team (or run of similar), with nice fixtures to come. They haven’t got the points yet but are well set up to get them.

That’s why I was disappointed when Sané scored against Liverpool. He wouldn’t have left my watchlist if he hadn’t and I would’ve still tried to find a way to bring him in. The casual player would definitely have not. Sané was close to a drop and is now back on the way to his transmission point.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Sterling is too expensive though, imo.

Yes and no. In terms of raw output (ppg) he is the second-highest scoring player again this season (excluding those who have only played a couple of games), which suggests that if anything he is a tad under-priced. The problem (as we all know) is that he doesn't have the security of starts that Salah, Hazard, etc have. This effectively reduces his contribution (and his attractiveness as a captain) and probably does mean that he is £1m over-priced. Mind you, I would say that Kane is similarly over-priced compared with the other premiums.

[hancockjr]

He’s started 17 out of 21 this season and scored in the one he came on in. Not sure if injured for any of the missed ones but that’s pretty good going for FPL. Maybe different in future but personally think it wil carry on like that, which is fine imo.

[Aldershot Rejects]

He’s started 17 out of 21 this season and scored in the one he came on in. Not sure if injured for any of the missed ones but that’s pretty good going for FPL. Maybe different in future but personally think it wil carry on like that, which is fine imo.

He's appeared in 18 out of 21 compared with Kane, Auba, Salah at 21. It's not a big problem, it's just that if you factor that into his performance it knocks about 15% off which reduces his attractiveness vis-a-vis others at his price point.

[hancockjr]

Yes, unless he was injured for any of those missed games. Does have the advantage that when he is rested he’s only been brought on once, and then he scored. Not that any of that is guaranteed for the future though.

[Joccki_10]

I was talking about the rest of the season. Never owned him but did definitely want him a couple of weeks ago. Now I’m back to where I was and think he is a tad overpriced considering what’s coming (DGWs, blanks, possible rotation, Agüero on form).

[Patrician]

Here is my hotlist for the next 6 gameweeks.

An interesting player on here for me and for anyone who has a premium goalkeeper (especially Alisson) is De Gea. Man U are playing with a more cavalier attitude. This is very good for Pogba and Rashford who are the obvious picks, it is also good for De Gea as he gets the opportunity to rack up the save points as per the Spurs game. In other words we could now see last season level of performance from De Gea and it frees up a Liverpool slot.

Hotlist GW23.JPG

[Patrician]

...and the coldlist. It really is time to be ditching Alonso I think (I wonder if I can formulate a plan to free up a Liverpool slot )

Coldlist GW23.JPG

[pokeface]

Interesting info.

Has your opinion of Van Dijk changed at all? I remember you were raving about him a few weeks ago, still the case? would you favour TAA if you were to do a Liverpool double up?

I still don’t think we can expect the same CS from United as we had last season so I’d still favour Allison over De Gea if I had him.

[Patrician]

I have Van Dijk equal for points per game potential taking the season as a whole, but based on the last 4 games TAA is in form and much cheaper. Either are good picks - top two defenders from my forecasts for the next 6 games. Van Dijk will give you a more nailed on pick, but I would say the saving on TAA swings it his way.

[Patrician]

I still don’t think we can expect the same CS from United as we had last season so I’d still favour Allison over De Gea if I had him.

True but I think De Gea plus TAA is better than Alisson plus Alonso/Laporte/Kolasinac with a big saving.

[pokeface]

True.

[Patrician]

Errr scratch that!

[pokeface]

[Patrician]

GW23 Review: 70pts, GWR 777,916, 1,435 pts, OR 19,597, gap 210 pts

A decent but not great week. The good news is that I do seemed to have stopped the rot that affected me GW7-16, and green arrows, albeit small ones are now a bit more frequent. My primary goal is to catch a rival, who is doing extremely well on 1,508 points and in 976th position. It is important as this involves a large bet worth £500 or so. I am currently 2-1 up in the series. If he wins, we will be tied and will be forced to play a tie breaker next season (at which point, our wives will intervene and tell us to cease and desist ).

The twist in the tail is that this week he wildcarded. He had made some bad/unlucky decisions recently and I was slowly reeling him in (I made some good decisions and was very fast onto Pogba and Rashford). A few weeks ago he was >100 points ahead. As you would expect, his wildcard team looks strong, he has covered my key differentials, and established some strong differentials of his own. I am sure I will lose ground on his new team unless I react. Indeed despite my decent score this week, he outscored me primarily through Sane.


His Team

Opponent.JPG

I think he has made an error here. I think he could have covered my moves, and forced me to wildcard first. Before this wildcard I was already setting expectations with my wife that the bet was lost this year....but now, I have a chance. While this team looks very strong, it has a few flaws to exploit.

My Team

My Team.JPG

I think I know what I am going to do! I have a glimmer of hope...