Patrician's Crystal Ball

[TheRumourMill]

Fingers crossed the disruption isn't too bad and we can proceed broadly as intended with our squads, I am very concerned though.

The Villa Newcastle proposal is an interesting one. I agree Ruth that Villa v Newcastle on 4th round day makes sense, however I think it also makes sense in DGW26, as the sides Villa and Newcastle are scheduled to play in GW29 are Brighton and Sheffield United, with all 4 teams not in Europe these games can be scheduled whenever really. I'd imagine a decision on Villa Newcastle dropping into GW19 wouldn't be made until GW19 has started, so my question is thus, would you start your Villa players in GW19 if that extra fixture has not been confirmed (and assuming Villa everton is also postponed)? As if it it isn't rescheduled in 19 all Villa will have is a match against Man City, not attractive at all.

[Ruth_NZ]

Villa/Newcastle can also go into GW23 (R5 day) and that's probably the likeliest if Villa/Everton goes ahead. But if it is postponed, Villa will then have 3 games awaiting re-scheduling and I can't imagine they'd then pass over a slot to play one of them. My guess is that Villa have a GW19 double one way or another.

Personally I'll likely deploy the BB (I think that's Patrician's plan also) so it won't matter about who to play. If Martinez is my only issue in 2 days' time (he's my only Villa player) then the trigger will get pulled.

[Patrician]

I think even I lose some DGW fixtures I will be playing the bench boost. That chip is just a real pain in the ass this season especially and I would rather play the rest of the season without having to keep it in mind.


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[Neath boy]

Yes same idea. Unless something catastrophic happens I will be playing bb in 19 and then not have it playing on my mind for the rest of the season.

[Patrician]

49 (-12) = 37 all out and currently a grey arrow with just the one fixture to go. Hopefully the Arsenal boys don't go too crazy and I can call this gameweek a nice bit of business. 19pts came from the 12 point hit, so already significantly up and with the Leeds fixture cancellation confirmed more upside to come! Thanks for the push in that direction Ruth_NZ

Glad I didn't get tempted by Sterling, what a sickener that must be for some people. Its bad enough that KdB should have taken it and given me 16 more points.

[Ruth_NZ]

Yeah, good business because you have re-engineered your team without using a chip.

Pep was asked why Sterling took the penalty: "Normally it would be Kevin but he was tired and I'm glad Raheem had the personality to step up". It's bewildering really.

[Patrician]

Half way folks. BGW/DGW review, and looking forward. OR 78k, chips remaining FH, TC, WC

I am very happy with the outcome. Rank has improved from 156k to 78k. Made the top 100k by the half way point. BGW 37pts, DGW 125pts, for an 81pts average. My average points per week is now 63 (68 since GW5 when I turned things around). I think a 2,400+ season is well on the cards which would be my highest ever season long score.

GW19 Points.PNG

Inspired decisions were: Salah out, Gundogan in, offloading Leeds, keeping Villa, keeping Kane (almost brought Vardy in for a hit)

Opportunities missed: Antonio and Stones who were both at the forefront of my thinking


Looking Ahead

Three main complications

1) We have a premium problem. KdB injured, Bruno and Salah out of form, can't yet trust Aubameyang or Sterling. Only really Kane and Son who are consitent but quite tough fixtures for them.

2) Very intense schedule for the next four and COVID still widespread = lots of potential for rotation and fixture cancellations

3) Will need to start planning for the next round of BGW/DGW and getting the most out of the remaining chips without compromising the squad. Will look at the permutations at the end of the FA Cup round this weekend. Thanks Ben Crellin for your work.

I think the best general strategy for the next 6 week is a strong bench (I already have), and a squad made up of the best assets from teams with games in hand (City, Spurs, Everton, Villa, Southampton, Leeds, Burnely, Fulham). That's a good set of teams to make up a squad, and I already have 9 from those.

Issues to fix

1) KdB injured - most likely move to Son (probably also add an additional City defender at the same time)
2) Bench is a little too strong - at some point I will probably do TAA/Robbo to Mitchell to release funds and have a cheap as chip bench player
3) Wood is shit. KdB to Son will allow Wood to DCL/Ings

Seems good!

[Patrician]

My bench making me feel sick





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[Smurphy Paw]

Oh my goodness.
I think the only answer is a decent glass of whatever your favourite poison is

[jacksosi]

Wow! That’s truly heartbreaking. Commiserations.

The good news is that you have made me feel way less bad about my Soucek benching, every cloud....

[Bobby Fetta]

Wow. And, even with hindsight, I can't fault the choices you made on the bench selection. This game is so frustrating some times. Even with a decent green arrow I come out of this week feeling rotten.

[fred1266]

when saw the arnold goal my mind ran on immediately am also pissed i sold him this week

[Patrician]

GW 20-24 Review

GW19-24.PNG

It has been a little frustrating over the last few gameweeks - I had the right squad, but I didn't make the right choices on bench and captains. 118 points benched in 5 weeks must be some sort of record, and this was compounded by not hitting the right captains:

GW20 - Fernandes (2) vc Gundo (14)
GW21 - Gundo (3) vc Salah (15)
GW22 - Salah (2) vc Fernandes (17)
GW23 - Fernandes (7) vc Son (10)

What a shit show! I read somewhere that statistically a player is 20% less likely to haul the week after a haul and these results certainly fit that theory. All in all this sequence could easily have resulted in 100 more points with exactly the same players - a few bad decisions, and a bit of bad luck.

Gameweek 24 has somewhat made up for it with my third 100+ gameweek of the season, fuelled by the Gundo(c) and my Lowton transfer. Lowton was yet another example where I have benefited from adding FPL podcasts to my weekly routine as I was going to get Mee until a number of pods I listen too pointed out that Lowton had been getting into more attacking positions recently. Didn't expect a goal and I will chalk it up as luck, but those snippets of info have been really helpful in making close calls.

GW 24 Points.PNG

GW25

I am waiting for pressers and DGW fixture news, but I am almost certainly going to make three transfers for a 4 point hit. Vestergaard, Raphinha and Ings(c) coming in for TAA, Soucek and Antonio. Southampton may have a triple double so I want to lump on that. I'm still undecided on chip strategy, I have a full playing XI for the DGW I think, so probably FH in 29 and wild card around then for the fixture swing. Triple Captain probably on Kane in the DGW who can come in for Ings.

This sequence of transfers also moves money off my bench (please no more bench torture) and into the first XI (I will have all of the big hitters Salah, Fernandes, Son, Gundo and Kane). Hopefully another 100+ gameweek on the horizon!

[fred1266]

Hi Pat nice things finally worked in the end, may it continue

i just saw your Ings Transfer got me thinking maybe i can do the same cause ideally i want Kane for BGW 29, any reason u not going to Kane straight in 25 i know ings has the double but Kane might have a haul at WHM also, is it cause of the leeds game cause you expect goals, cause can't see him scoring much at chelsea

how does your prediction compare between the 2 from GW 25 -28?

[Patrician]

My spider sense is telling me that Ings could go big this weekend.

[fred1266]

My spider sense is telling me that Ings could go big this weekend.

ok i quite like that move, think shall be following it

[Patrician]

Good luck, I have done it. Kane not travelling tonight sealed the deal


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[fred1266]

Good luck, I have done it. Kane not travelling tonight sealed the deal


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why cause you think he injured?

[Patrician]

if he was 100% he would have travelled

[fred1266]

yea true

[Patrician]

Advantage Ings(c).


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[fred1266]

Advantage Ings(c).


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lol

[fred1266]

Hi Pat how u planning to get Kane for GW26, is it still Ings to Kane, after the DGW announcement i wondering if Bambford is a better choice but seeing i have no FH for 29 not sure if i really want to get ride

[Smurphy Paw]

Advantage Ings(c).

Deuce

[fred1266]

Advantage Ings(c).

Deuce

how much were u yelling at the TV for Mina to pass the ball

[Patrician]

Advantage Bamford


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[fred1266]

lol

u know what more infuriating we could have just left Antonio

[Patrician]

Getting fairly settled for GW1.

2021 GW1 Draft.PNG

4-4-2: The general guiding principles were:

1) Cover the obvious high ownership picks, too dangerous not to have: TAA, Salah, Bruno
2) Talismanic players, not featuring too deep in international tourneys: Raphinha, Wilson, Ings
3) Value picks with fixtures or circumstances: Shaw, Digne, Dias, Gundo
4) All the money on the pitch, with a playing first sub: Foster, Bissouma, Omobamidele, Mebude (low ownership 4.5M FWD dead spot)
5) No more than two from anyone team for flexibility, with best fixture premium teams having two each (LIV, MCI, MUN)

This year, I really want to have a better start to the season, which has been my achilles heel, and I want this team to take me through the first 5-6 gameweeks.

[SirMattBugsby]

Digne+Dias or Barnes+4.5def? That's the only difference in my team.

I had Digne in earlier drafts but have gone off a bit now. Without DCL, his attacking output reduces. The Leeds fixture doesn't look good to me.. could be a heavy loss, followed by a selling spree.

[blahblah]

Everton were seriously shite Vs MU, if that's relevant.