Patrician's Crystal Ball

[Patrician]

Not sure who and when, just making sure I have a plan in mind in case the Liverpool premiums feel essential at any point


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[blahblah]

Not sure who and when, just making sure I have a plan in mind in case the Liverpool premiums feel essential at any point


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I started withthe Lpool3 las season and cracked too soon as I had delusional expectations re CS's and atttacking points. The key is tokeepthinking of them as cheapish Mids and what that sort of player is pleasing etc. Also Allisson broke and......

[Patrician]

Yeah that’s the risk though. Liverpool need all their cogs turning. Lose one key cog like Allison and all three assets become bad.


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[blahblah]

Yeah that’s the risk though. Liverpool need all their cogs turning. Lose one key cog like Allison and all three assets become bad.


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Well it depends on expectations.Last season, I wanted both CS's and Attacking Points, which is not feasible every match or all 3 would be hitting double figures every GW.....

[slyger]

Probably not, probably drop one to Laporte or a value pick to open up Salah/Mane.


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so why not start with Salah or Mane? I like the idea of three Pool defenders but I keep flipping back to only having two so I can get Salah/Mane in

Which 2 doyou keep and whichof the 2 Mids?

The Lpool3 (Defs) take that decision away, and is a big whack of the appeal for me.

That's a fair point. I actually like my team better with the 3 of them instead of Salah. If I bring Salah in I end up having to play a cheap mid or a 4 buck defender each GW.

[blahblah]

Probably not, probably drop one to Laporte or a value pick to open up Salah/Mane.


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so why not start with Salah or Mane? I like the idea of three Pool defenders but I keep flipping back to only having two so I can get Salah/Mane in

Which 2 doyou keep and whichof the 2 Mids?

The Lpool3 (Defs) take that decision away, and is a big whack of the appeal for me.

That's a fair point. I actually like my team better with the 3 of them instead of Salah. If I bring Salah in I end up having to play a cheap mid or a 4 buck defender each GW.

Exactamundo....

[Patrician]

Trust Salah to bang in an opening day hattrick to test my resolve on the triple Liverpool defence strategy. I wasn't a total failure, due to VVD (Robertson), but boy it is going to be hard not going on tilt this week.

[Mav3rick]

Yeah, around 30 points down for me at the moment I reckon. Son, Havertz and DCL have a lot of points to make up but doesn't seem likely.

It's fine though, may as well stick to the plan as it's not unexpected for Salah to outscore the other super premiums. Just unfortunate it was a big margin in GW1 and the GW2 captaincy doesn't really offer any immediate recourse.

[FranckKessie]

WC active?

[Patrician]

Hah yes!


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[Patrician]

What a bonkers season so far.

It has been a hard slog, but I am enjoying this season. After a very underwhelming start (turns out double Liverpool D wasn't a good choice), I have been rapidly rising up the ranks to a respectable 150k or so.

GW17 Week by Week.PNG

The goal for the season is 2,470 points (i.e. the hallowed average of 65 points per week). So far I have averaged 62, but for the last 11 gameweeks it is 66), so if I can keep this run going I could get close to the target.

Current Team 2FT, Chips avaialable: FH, BB, TC, WC. Team value: 105.2, Bank: 0.6

GW17 Team.PNG

Currently this is very nicely set up for the BGW/DGW, with a double transfer planned of Salah > KdB and either TAA or Dallas > Dias or Stones. This would give me 9 players in the BGW, and after a Kane>Vardy and Button to another keeper 15 DGW for the benchboost. However with Triple Villa who may have a postponement and more as yet unknown curveballs I am sure that this plan will need to change.

Which brings me to my key observation for this season. Overall this season favours the engaged manager. The chaos is an opportunity. While there is a lot of randomness and chance that can punish us, there is a lot we can do to mitigate the impact and gain an advantage over the casual player.

Key additional principles for this season:

1) Captain and Vice Captain from different teams, with ideally one of them being in the first fixture block of the gameweek.
2) Try to avoid having three players from anyone team, (yes I know my current team doen't stick to this, but going forward I plan to address this)
3) Embrace certainty - hold players that have games in hand. They are sure to have double gameweeks and perhaps even a triple. These can get rescheduled at short notice
4) Have a deep bench - not necessarily an expensive bench, but a playing bench. There are a lot of cheap options.

[FranckKessie]

Great to see your turn around and all the best with the season Patrician! How far behind the leader are you?

[Aldershot Rejects]

Good job, Patrician. It is always good see to a fellow-FISOer making such a rapid climb. Any idea what you will do if the Spurs-Villa match is postponed?

I like the additional principles.

[Patrician]

Cheers chaps, 209 points behind the leader which is certainly too big a chasm to bridge

Not sure if spurs v villa is postponed - that might put me in Free Hit followed by Bench Boost territory.

Oh, and New Season, New Spreadsheet

Here are my player rankings, sorted by average forecast xPts (note - ©Pts assumes that for players over 10M I captain 33% of the time as my structure is to have three captain options e.g. Salah/Bruno/Kane in my current squad)

GW17 Top 20.PNG

[Ruth_NZ]

3) Embrace certainty - hold players that have games in hand. They are sure to have double gameweeks and perhaps even a triple. These can get rescheduled at short notice.

Villa look pretty likely to have a TGW19 now, as long as they are able to fulfil the Everton game.

[Patrician]

So looks like Villa v Spurs is now Spurs v Fulham, taking three players out of BGW18 for me, so currently fielding just four (Cancelo, Fernandes, Wood, Kane). Feels like a Free Hit, however I find that I want to make some serious squad changes anyway and I am not sure I want to lose my two FT and revert to the same squad next week.

Think I may do Button > Pope, TAA to Dias, and Salah > KdB for a -4, with the hit being for the Pope move which should more than pay back over three fixtures (bench boost GW19). I will have all the big hitters covered and after Kane > Vardy next week, 15 DGW players for a bench boost. Think I am set on this plan.

[Patrician]

What a headache. So now it looks like Leeds lose a DGW fixture, which impacts three of my team. I've gone from being well set-up to being all over the place! It is REALLY complicated working out what the best thing to do is.

Current Squad - 4 BGW players, 11 DGW players (down from 7 and 14 a few days ago )

Martinez
Button

TAA
Robertson
Cancelo
Dallas
Konsa

Salah
Fernandes
Grealish
Rapinha
Soucek

Kane
Bamford
Wood

It is doing well climbing the ranks, but it does have issues, namely:

a) TAA and Robertson are falling short of being good VFM in the absence of VVD.
b) It could probably do with a Midfielder slot in the 10Mish range as in some fixtures I find myself wanting Son or Rashford
c) No KdB who I forecast will be the highest points scorer by far over the next 6 gameweeks
d) Generally not enough City and ManU who have both three fixtures in the next two gameweeks, and good fixtures after
e) Three teams with three players (Liv, Avl, Lee), high risk for COVID fixture cancellations

Options

1) The lazy kick of the can down the road: Take a free hit to play what is right in front of us. This will maximise GW18 potential and give 11 DGW players for a sub-optimal bench boost or decent TC. Downside will be no Free Hit anymore and structural issues will remain.
2) The wild card restructure: Use the wild card to optimise as best I can. The big risk will be ending up with a squad compromise and no way to fix it easily later with more DGWs and BGWs to come
3) The aggressive: Make 5 transfers for a -12 (Button to Pope, TAA to Shaw, Robertson to Stones, Salah to KdB, Rapinha to Rashford). This gains 8 fixtures over the next two gameweeks, AND I estimate this newly structured squad to deliver ~ 2 pts/gw more than my old squad in the long term. Brings an optimised bench boost back into play, which is the chip I really want to burn. I am nervous about losing all Liverpool assets but I am not a big fan of tot, whu, BHA, MCI, lei coming up
4) The cautious: original plan of Salah to KdB and Trent to Stones/Dias, plus Button to Pope which is 5 extra fixtures for a -4, and ride out these two gameweeks with a more cautious approach

Thoughts?

[Ruth_NZ]

Aggressive. I thought that when looking before. But maybe a -8 instead of a -12 and keep Robertson?

Usually I am reluctant to take hits though maybe having started late and not so seriously I am playing a bit looser this season. But I also think that with the constant disruption that's happening, you only have the choice to burn chips, take hits or accept lower scores than you want. Or to get very lucky and miss all the carnage, of course, but that's not a choice.

Especially this is so right now. The Covid situation will improve by degrees when the weather gets warmer and as the vaccine begins to slow transmission down. The time for a steady, planned surge towards the finish line will be from March onwards, which takes us to around GW26 (which will be a big DGW as it happens). That's when you want the main chips, the 2WC and the FH to cover 29 perhaps. You'll have a steadier shot at the remainder of the season if you reset about then.

So, I agree with you exactly. Get the BB done so it's not in the way later (GW19 is my plan too). Use the fact of having a short team in GW18 and the possibility to add games in GW19 to justify a few hits as long as they also help you set up the team how you want it for GW20-25. Accept the fact that those using the FH or WC this week may get an immediate advantage (though probably not if you manage a decent BB) and play the long game, which means riding any short-term problems and just mitigating them as best you can.

The FH is almost a chip without demerits but the most serious one it has is the loss of 1-2 FTs. I'd therefore say that a key factor in the FH is to use it when you are content with how your squad will be the week after. That's not your situation; therefore this is not the ideal time for the FH.

[Patrician]

Thanks Ruth_NZ, I slept on it and your thoughts emboldened me to go aggressive with hits and keep the FH in hand. In the end went for a different set of transfers for the -12, as I felt I was making too big sacrifices just to have Rashford. Then I noticed that Gundogen's stats over the last few fixtures are really quite tasty. Finally I am going to keep my money on the Liverpool defenders coming good. So I went...

Button > Areola, Dallas > Shaw, Konsa > Wan-Bissaka, Salah > KdB, Rapinha > Gundogan, which should buy me 9 more fixtures over the next two weeks and seek to exploit the good ManU/City fixtures.

[Ruth_NZ]

Nice. I took a -8 myself!

Areola is a really good pick I think and he covers Martinez' tougher fixtures quite well. Also like KDB & Gündoğan, though I'd not be sure myself whether Gündoğan will play every game over the next period. Maybe doesn't matter so much for 5.4m. I'm not sure why United defenders are so popular, though, they aren't my idea of a solid defensive unit. Wouldn't have taken two myself but they certainly have some worthwhile fixtures anyway.

The Liverpool double is an interesting selection. I'd have kept Robertson, as I said, but probably not both. But it could well be that Liverpool retrench a little now and try to rebuild their defensive solidity. The attacking potential from both FBs is certainly there if they do.

Good luck.

[Patrician]

Yeah I’m not especially enamoured by Man U defence, but as my 4th and 5th defender in a 3-4-3 it is no big deal and pay off over next four could be good.

Trent and Robbo are my FPL comfort blanket, even if I know deep down they are not worth the money this year. One advantage is you can move to literally anyone else with either, and also fund many other transfers at the same time.


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[Smurphy Paw]

Yeah I’m not especially enamoured by Man U defence, but as my 4th and 5th defender in a 3-4-3 it is no big deal and pay off over next four could be good.

Trent and Robbo are my FPL comfort blanket, even if I know deep down they are not worth the money this year. One advantage is you can move to literally anyone else with either, and also fund many other transfers at the same time.


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That’d be the theoretical ‘can’ to provide you with emotional reassurance, then?

[Patrician]

I tell myself all sorts of lies to justify my sub-optimal picks.

Boom, ManU clean sheet. Shaw had an assist turn into a yellow card


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[Smurphy Paw]

Yes, this evening I am a little envious of those two fifths of your defence

[Ruth_NZ]

Yeah I’m not especially enamoured by Man U defence, but as my 4th and 5th defender in a 3-4-3 it is no big deal and pay off over next four could be good.

Yeah, I forget that you have a much bigger TV than I do. It went well for you anyway, almost neutralised the -12 in one game.

[Patrician]

I’m too busy salivating over my next squad to even give a tiny shit about this week.




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[Ruth_NZ]

I like mine better.

[TheRumourMill]

Nice moves Patrician, the agression being instantly rewarded

I wouldn't salivate too much yet about next week though, this is fpl after all There's still time for Martinez, bamford and grealish to have fixtures cancelled and only having a sgw, cancelo and gundogan to be inexplicably dropped, Shaw and fernandes to pick up bookings against liverpool and miss the Fulham game, and any player or team catch covid in the next 8 days.

If you're pessimistic you can't be disappointed, right?

[Patrician]

Haha yes, that’s why I put the screenshot in now. It sure to be decimated in due course


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[Ruth_NZ]

I'm just hoping that having got this far I won't get my BB screwed beyond rescue. Guess you too.

I can live with Soton-Leeds being off, only have 1 player from those left (and with a decent enough SGW). Wouldn't so much like Villa-Everton to be off but it may not be, also Villa-Newcastle could be added into GW19 later. If I am near, I'm pulling the trigger anyway, even if it needs a hit (though I'm actually hoping to save FT). It's only 3 days away so not long to wait.