Patrician's Crystal Ball

[Patrician]

Come on Trent! Do me a vice captain favour tonight.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Patrician]

First Half Review (inc Xmas). Points 1201, OR 191,053, Squad value 105.7M

After a terrible start, things have started looking up. The festive season has gone especially well all things considered with 250 points from the four gameweeks, despite a fair amount of rotation and a Son(c) for the red card. Yes, I do now think the Spurs bounce was much more a splat , and all three assets have now been jetisoned.

Key Learning

I think I was too obsessed in analysing last seasons META in pre-season, which led me to persist with bad squad structure for this season for too long. This season has had a different META in the first half of the season due to the abundance of riches in players performing well above their price point and the under performance of many of the most expensive players. The "dead zone" players I had been avoiding have been very much in play. I will avoid this mistake in future.

I finally feel I have a handle on this season's META, as evidenced by 9 green arrows in the last 11 gameweeks which has seen my rank improve from 2M to a little under 200k.

GW21 Week by Week.JPG

Looking Ahead

I am very happy with my squad, the key value players are in place (Vardy, KdB, Lundstram, Soyuncu, TAA), defence is made up of the top 2 defences in the league plus Lundstram. Forward line is treating me very well with Vardy, Rashford and Ings (who I got on before the points rush). This allows my focus for transfers to be in midfield taking advantage of fixtures. Obviously one of Mane or Salah will be coming in for Sterling for the DGW, but I think I will stick with Sterling for Villa who are currently the worst defence in the league. Alli has already gone for Martial. ManU are hot and cold and so is Martial, but he is getting quite frequent double digit returns.

I am not so happy with Rashford (can't bring myself to captain him, which is bad for a 9M+ player), who will likely give way to someone like Jiminez in GW27. Pope has a rough fixture run, so will ditch for Fabianski for the DGW and good fixtures to follow. At some point I would like to upgrade Gomez to VvD or Robertson. Pereira is being a little disappointing, I like the price point as I think Digne and Doherty may hit serious form soon. I would like a better bench player than Hayden, so am eyeing Cantwell. Last couple of items on the wish list are a playing 2nd keeper for the DGWs to come, and maybe Son at some point.

GW21.JPG

[Stu255]

Is Grealish now past his best due to injured teammates?

I completely missed out on Ings recent form, is this sustainable?

[Patrician]

Is Grealish now past his best due to injured teammates?

I completely missed out on Ings recent form, is this sustainable?

Grealish is one to watch, I feel that if Villa score he will be involved, and the fixtures are ok.

Ings has tough fixtures next four, but they get good again in GW26. He is a hold but not a buy. DCL probably a better bet for the next four.

[Patrician]

Talk about a convoluted route to a decent gameweek. I correctly called that captaining a City differential would be a good move vs Villa, however the player I picked was Sterling. Not to worry though, as my vice captain was on Rashford, so all good in the end. When Villa got that late penalty, I had visions of first sub Grealish smashing it home, but alas It was not to be. 50k rank improvement and closing on the top 100k.

Bit gutted on missing the Aguero hat trick, I normally get those every season.

Now what to do? Go again on Sterling for Palace at home? Surely he can’t miss three games in a row, nicely rested and with a point to prove...or shall I bring in Mané or Salah a gameweek early?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[noelix]

I have the same decision about whether to captain Sterling. He has the armband at the moment, but he did this time last week and I ended up moving it to Vardy. The fact that Pep brought him on for 1 minute of stoppage time the game before last is a bit off-putting as it would obviously be a nightmare captaincy. But I agree he's surely in line for a start having missed two on the bounce - although you never know with Mr Guardiola.

[Patrician]

DGW 24 and my early Wildcard

In the preparation for DGW 24, I realised that I have backed myself into a corner I didn't want to be in (TAA, Gomez, 1x Liverpol Mid), plus with Rashford injury, double up on out of form Leicester defence and a couple of other fires to fight, I decided to go for an early wild card and get my team set for the next phase of the season. This is where I ended up...

WC GW23 in prep for DGW24.JPG

Both Southampton and Sheffield Utd have defensive form, lovely fixtures and cheap as chips options, so have ditched the Leciester players for them. This has allowed me to have Salah (TC) and Mane without losing De Bruyne or Martial who I wanted to keep. Calvert-Lewin is in at least for a few gameweeks, and I also ditched Hayden for Fleck who is much more of an attacking threat and has good fixtures.

I suspect this team will evolve back towards 2 x Liverpool Defenders, as in normal gameweeks I am not that comfortable with 24M on two Liverpool mids, and the world is my oyster. Perhaps Mahrez, or Son might come in, or Grealish to enable Aguero for Vardy if their respective form stays as it is. An advantage of the Pool midfield double up is that you can get to pretty much any key player in two moves.

Weighing on my mind ahead of this decision was the squad of my main rival, who I was certain would have Salah+Mane for the gameweek and because he is chasing I didn't want to offer such an explosive differential. Obviously the risk is that he may find a way of out manouvering me with the wild card intact. While that is a risk, I don't think it is as pronounced this season. The league will be decided by the main double gameweeks, so team line-ups for the big teams will be hard to predict. If you can get a lot of value from an early wild card, and you have multiple fires to put out, I think it is worth considering.

Good start to the DGW, with returns from McCarthy, Stephens, KdB and DCL. For the first time this season I am in the top 100k, what a slog that has been.

[Stevieste]

Very nice squad that, i reckon there be a few upsets around the corner though where you leave a lot of points on the bench, i guess thats all part of the game, but really makes your gameweek feel worse when main 11 have underperformed and big points sat on bench.

I remember Baldock 14 points i had as first sub earlier in season and was really frustrated as i cheered them all on, not realising id benched him at full time and he not be coming on

[Patrician]

I try not to worry about points on the bench, and for the final third of the season I would much rather have a suad of players who can all score well as opposed to having total bench fodder that I never want to play (I am looking at you Hayden). It opens options to bring in someone like Mahrez who you know will be rotated and score very highly when playing, with a solid bench option for the games he misses.

[Pirlo's Beard]

It opens options to bring in someone like Mahrez who you know will be rotated and score very highly when playing, with a solid bench option for the games he misses.

Speaking as a Mahrez owner, the problem with the games he misses is that he doesn't actually miss them: five times this season he's come off the bench for a 1-pointer.

[blahblah]

I try not to worry about points on the bench, and for the final third of the season I would much rather have a suad of players who can all score well as opposed to having total bench fodder that I never want to play (I am looking at you Hayden). It opens options to bring in someone like Mahrez who you know will be rotated and score very highly when playing, with a solid bench option for the games he misses.

Hayden did well the other GW?

[From4corners]

Hayden did well the other GW?

This GW as well. A perfect set and forget bench option for his price.

[blahblah]

Hayden did well the other GW?

This GW as well. A perfect set and forget bench option for his price.

I happily have him and Dendoncker on mine, and no worries re BGWs as they can start if needed. But I'm not getting into picking GW's to start them, well I hope not

[Smurphy Paw]

I try not to worry about points on the bench

Here! Here!

Don’t get me wrong, I’d rather pick the optimal 11 each week but, for example, Rico would have scored 5 points last night whether I had him in my first 11; somewhere on the bench in position 12-15; or not at all. Opting not to have potential points scorers in case they score points when not required (but pull out all the stops on the weeks when we give them a chance) doesn’t completely stack up to me

[Patrician]

Bonkers and Grueling Season - Final Rank 50,647

This was the year of crisis. Major crisis at work for which I was in charge from August to November, followed by COVID and the unprecedented season finish. I think all in all I am happy enough with my final rank considering I was at 2M rank in GW10. Could I have sneaked another 10k finish? Maybe. It was on in GW30+ when I hit my season best rank of 35,278. I got a lot right, but I also got a lot wrong. I think my main learning has been to stop trying to come up with a rigid winning system. Each season is different and being able to adapt to the particular facts of the season you are in is the main differentiator. I like the style of Lateriser a lot, which also speaks a lot to the musings of Dod. Find those situations where an explosive player is not being tipped by the crowd and the situation is good for a haul, and roll the dice. Hitting a high upside differential for captaincy makes the difference between good and great.

I still intend to win FPL, but I have a lot to learn.

[Patrician]

First Gut Feel Draft

....and I quite like it!




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Patrician]

Undervalued players for me are:

Foden if plays as much for a whole season as he did post Lockdown

Aguero, what?

Werner, should get super premium points

Trent, auto pick at 7.5 for everyone.

Vinaigrette, for start of season

Using those players as a starting point, don’t need another high priced City player, so add Salah and Fernandes for Liverpool and Man U captain options. I could even go Auba instead of Salah as Trent is a good Liverpool captain option in his own right.

Antonio was in beast mode after lock down.

VVD for Liverpool defence double up, will be top 3 defender by end of season.

Soucek looks good for a few goals at 5m

What do you think boys and girls?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Smurphy Paw]

Very strong
Which couple of City could be debated and debated but there’s a clear logic to your choices
VVD saving over Robertson is most helpful early season

[DAREEL]

Undervalued players for me are:

Foden if plays as much for a while season as he did post Lockdown

Aguero, what?

Werner, should get super premium points

Trent, auto pick at 7.5 for everyone.

Vinaigrette, for start of season

Using those players as a starting point, don’t need another high priced City player, so add Salah and Fernandes for Liverpool and Man U captain options. I could even go Auba instead of Salah as Trent is a good Liverpool captain option in his own right.

Antonio was in beast mode after lock down.

VVD for Liverpool defence double up, will be top 3 defender by end of season.

Soucek looks good for a few goals at 5m

What do you think boys and girls?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

First one ive seen with no KDB. Fair play

Not sure about Werner from the off. Could start with Jimi, Ings or Martial ( fixtures depending) and keep the mitb. Always helpful to have at least .5 itb anyway imo.

I like it though. Depends if Kun is fit i guess

[dino1980]

Agree with all your undervalued players. Also think Robbo is in that category. Antonio in particular seems a lock at the 6.5 price point given the multiple options at that price point in the FWD market at +\- 0.5. Another reason Werner is currently locked in my team.
I actually think Auba and Bruno are at best going to meet their value and at worst overpriced.
For Auba there’s no Arsenal alt so I suspect I’ll own him for favourable matchups where he’s the best captain option.
For Bruno, I’ve posted elsewhere about him, and why I think he’s overpriced. Even if you think his price is correct, he’s now not only got to compete with the 11.5 established super premiums, but also with Rashford and I prefer the latter at 1m cheaper. Fixture dependent I may swerve United altogether if a Liverpool, City, Werner rotation works.
Actually prefer Raz as the City super premium over KDB at the moment. Need to investigate but the reason being, I want my City captain to have the highest ceiling and gut tells me Raz has more explosiveness than KDB. Would need to check this though.

[Patrician]

Agree with all your undervalued players. Also think Robbo is in that category. Antonio in particular seems a lock at the 6.5 price point given the multiple options at that price point in the FWD market at +\- 0.5. Another reason Werner is currently locked in my team.
I actually think Auba and Bruno are at best going to meet their value and at worst overpriced.
For Auba there’s no Arsenal alt so I suspect I’ll own him for favourable matchups where he’s the best captain option.
For Bruno, I’ve posted elsewhere about him, and why I think he’s overpriced. Even if you think his price is correct, he’s now not only got to compete with the 11.5 established super premiums, but also with Rashford and I prefer the latter at 1m cheaper. Fixture dependent I may swerve United altogether if a Liverpool, City, Werner rotation works.
Actually prefer Raz as the City super premium over KDB at the moment. Need to investigate but the reason being, I want my City captain to have the highest ceiling and gut tells me Raz has more explosiveness than KDB. Would need to check this though.

Yes, all three Liverpool defenders are under priced and I think a double up is very sensible. Any two really.

I think Bruno will be this years KDB, but if that is proven wrong it is easy to drop to Rashford or Greenwood.

I agree in wanting the most explosive city asset, which is why I am going Aguuuueeeero

[Smurphy Paw]

The issue with having both Aguero and/or Foden is playing time. One or both of KDB and Sterling offer greater certainty of minutes

[Patrician]

Agree, and it does feel like this squad would need a decent 1st Sub, which I don't at the moment. That said, there is usually a base priced player that emerges.

[dino1980]

Pulisic at 8.5 has the same underlying numbers as Bruno, for 2m less.
Chelsea are going to be really interesting this season. One podcast I listen to described Frank Lampard as a ‘football pervert’ trying to get as many attacking players on the pitch as possible.

[Patrician]

I am not convinced by Pulisic yet, until I see more end product. I did own him for part of last season (based on my forecast points algorithm on the underlying stats) and perhaps I feel a bit burned by that. Plus I think Werner will be the standout Chelsea captaincy option, and Bruno the standout at ManU. It is definitely part of the plan to have the standout captaincy options from the attacking teams.

[dino1980]

Interesting. Different viewpoints on who is/isn’t value is what makes this game great. I’m more convinced on Pulisic than Bruno as we have more PL minutes and more Tier 1 league minutes on Pulisic than Bruno in which to base an outlook. Additionally Pulisic doesn’t rely on penalties for a portion of his output.

[FirstWeekWildcard]

Your assessment of undervalued players looks sound to me at this point.

Will Bruno deliver returns at the same rate that he did last season? (significantly outperformed XG and XA, and Utd went through a spell where everything clicked)
If he doesn't, is he still good value or a reliable captaincy option? With Salah and a City forward, how much is a Utd captain option needed?

Thinking about whether he is worth his premium or whether funds are better invested in upgrading Soucek, or D 4.0 and then changing formation. For example:
Bruno + D 4.0
could be
Doherty + Pulisic

[Patrician]

Thinking about whether he is worth his premium or whether funds are better invested in upgrading Soucek, or D 4.0 and then changing formation. For example:
Bruno + D 4.0
could be
Doherty + Pulisic

Hmm, yeah, you make a very strong point there!

[Patrician]

Anyone know the status on Pulisic injury?

[Mav3rick]

Any thoughts on JWP Patrician?

His points last season seem something of an anomaly given his historic scoring rate, probably not helped by Southampton's form in the first half of the season and also missing two pens. If he plays 3,000 mins again and reverts to previous scoring rates (or even just inline with his xG last season) a season of 140 seems the floor for him with potential for 160?