Patrician's Crystal Ball

[Turd Ferguson]

Thanks for sharing. It looks like a template is emerging.

Pope/4.0
TAA / Otamendi / X / Soyuncu / Lundstram
Salah / KdB / Mount / Cantwell / 4.5
Aguero / Pukki / Abraham

What do you think of KdB long term? Presumably we'll be captaining Aguero for City games so KdB will rarely be captained. Tough for him to justify nearly 10 mil of budget. The problem is that there's nowhere great to put the budget if you downgrade him. KdB + Cantwell is better than Martial + Trossard. KdB + Soyuncu/Lundstram is better than Trossard + Robertson.

A long term team like this looks like a nicely balanced 3-4-3:

Pope/4.0
TAA/Robertson/Otamendi/Soyuncu/Lundstram
Salah/Martial/Trossard/Mount/4.5
Aguero/Abraham/Pukki

You can plug one of the Silvas, Maddison, Lanzini in there instead of Martial, but it comes back to the fact that those players aren't outperforming the extra budget that would go into De Bruyne - even without captaining him!

[Patrician]

Yeah, there are too many excellent budget options this year, meaning that all the teams are going to be looking very similar, and it is easy to afford KdB as a 3rd premium despite not captaining him.

[Patrician]

I did have one request if I may, that of David Silva over the next 6. He's quite tough to model for me as his minutes are quite insecure, but when he plays he's generally in the points. I'm debating the upgrade of him to son/Pepe, but might be worth leaving him in just to tick over.

I have it roughly as

KdB 6.9ppg, will play 90%
Bilva 6.6ppg, will play 70%
Dilva 5.1ppg, will play 85%

[JanosKojak]

Would really like to see the same comparison between Aguero and Sterling. Contemplating making the move (-4p) to Aguero.

[math!]

Tomori is 0.1m cheaper than Soyuncu and has a similar if not slightly easier run. I think he's a cert to play too with the amount of praise Lampard heaps on him. Tomori + Rudiger or a back 3 will be a lot more solid than what we are expecting.

Everton are bad and I thought it would just be their away form. Are you sure about Digne? They have Man City next and alternate between home and away for a while.

[TheRumourMill]

I did have one request if I may, that of David Silva over the next 6. He's quite tough to model for me as his minutes are quite insecure, but when he plays he's generally in the points. I'm debating the upgrade of him to son/Pepe, but might be worth leaving him in just to tick over.

I have it roughly as

KdB 6.9ppg, will play 90%
Bilva 6.6ppg, will play 70%
Dilva 5.1ppg, will play 85%

That's great, many thanks.

[Turd Ferguson]

Everton have allowed the 2nd fewest shots in the league, but they’ve been contriving to allow a soft goal or two per game. Mina has been caught out a couple of times and Coleman had a howler for Wolves’ first goal. They can’t seem to keep it solid for all 90 mins. If Marco silva can sort out the individual errors then Digne should go right back to being a good pick. Personally I’ve taken him out this week on my wildcard though.

[Toucher6]

Did digne to pereira last week, but still haven’t decided on gw7 ft- swap soyuncu to tomori.
Second with little better upcoming fixtures, but it’s Chelsea and.. will he start every game?

[wandacatvenus]

Been following this thread. Are there any updates?

[Patrician]

Work has been intense for about 6 weeks. Not much free time. I will provide some snippets over the international break.


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[ENEMY]

Work has been intense for about 6 weeks. Not much free time. I will provide some snippets over the international break.


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Any updates Pat uncle?

[Patrician]

Bear with me, work nightmare now over, so back to FPL now. Just catching up. Got a lot of ground to make up


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[Patrician]

GW13 Taking Stock

It has been a very sobering first third of the season. One way or another nothing has been really working for me. Missing hot streaks, expensive players not delivering. It hasn't been helped by a sudden and unexpected massive workload at work, which is now behind me, so now I can turn my focus to trying to sort out this shitshow.

GW14 History.JPG

The last few week are looking a little better, and I hope I can kick-on from here with a revised ambition of top 10k, which would be a good achievement from here I think.

Current squad.

GW13 Squad.JPG

I think it looks pretty good up until GW18, but then I am impacted by a major fixture change for Liverpool, Leicester and Chelsea. So I think my plan will be to slowly ship players towards Spurs, Bournmouth and perhaps a bit of Palace. This year I intend to go all in on new manager bounces, so I think the Spurs situation is super interesting.

[Patrician]

Patrician's GW 14 Hotlist

Here is a list of players who are currently in form, and also have good fixtures ahead.

GW14 Hotlist.JPG

Rashford is looking super hot with Martial back. Lundstram is the most under-priced player in FPL history. The Vardy train should run for a good while longer. Wolves are back in town.

Patrician's GW 14 Coldlist

This bunch are out of form and have shitty fixtures.

GW14 Coldlist.JPG

Time to dump City assets for a while, if you haven't already. Keep an eye on Kane and Spurs in general. I suspect a massive Son train is leaving the station. Don't miss it.

[Pirlo's Beard]

Lundstram is the most under-priced player in FPL history. The Vardy train should run for a good while longer.

Time to dump City assets for a while, if you haven't already.

I suspect a massive Son train is leaving the station. Don't miss it.

All of this is music to my ears.

[Turd Ferguson]

Does your model project Son as being better than Kane?

[Patrician]

Spurs. Choo choo. Son, Aurier, Kane.

My model is irrelevant for assessing Spurs. I expect their stats to be massively different going forward.


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[Patrician]

Very happy to have put my money where my mouth is, Son, Alli and Aurier all in my team, and their fixtures turn for the even better. It is too late if you didn’t do it yet.

No city players for the first time in ages!

Now, how to get Rashford in?


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[Pirlo's Beard]

It is too late if you didn’t do it yet.

How could this possibly be true?

[Patrician]

Sorry typo! I meant it is not too late if you didn’t do it yet. The good fixture are still to come!


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[Pirlo's Beard]

Sorry typo! I meant it is not too late if you didn’t do it yet. The good fixture are still to come!

Ah, that makes a lot more sense.

I have Son but I won't be getting Alli until GW19. The double-up looks nearly essential from GWs 19 to 24!

[JanosKojak]

I see you have two frees. Are you thinking of holding on to your Liverpool assets?

[Patrician]

I have dropped Mane and Robbo, kept TAA and will most likely bring back both not long after this GW


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[JanosKojak]

Thank you for the quick reply. Just wanted to ask undirectly if you were holding Pulisic

[Patrician]

He gets two more weeks! His stats are good even if the end product has been terrible


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[Stena Bib]

Is Mourinho bounce over ??

[Patrician]

I think Spurs assets will remain good for some time yet. Obviously Son has burnt me, but Aurier and Alli are ticking along.


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[blahblah]

Is Mourinho bounce over ??

They were dire yesterday...

[Aldershot Rejects]

Do you have any plan to get either Salah or Mane in? That is the thing that is vexing me and I have Alli/KDB/Sterling like you.

[Patrician]

I do. After the next gameweek I will have two FT and I will downgrade someone, don’t know who yet, to do Sterling to Salah and leave enough in the bank to also bring in Robertson. Should be a Liverpool DGW soon and will most likely TC Salah


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