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Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

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No Way Jose
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Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by No Way Jose »

I personally think they are off track and it will lead to wasteful squads. Ideally a full 15 playing with 12th and 13th men offering rotation value and cover from the bench without bench spend being more than 1.5 over base price

Caf
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Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Caf »

Time for a game of 'spot the move'...

Here's my squad, 2FT, 0.8 itb.
IMG_0817.PNG
I'd pencilled in a double switch of Richarlison -> Mane, Aguero -> Ings/Jimenez/Murray this week, but my two boys in the last-chance saloon have complicated things by registering hauls in GW11. Now Richarlison is getting transfers in and, with City appearing to realise their explosive potential, can anyone really ship out Aguero?

So the Mane move appears dead. Another idea is Fraser -> Martial with an enabling move like Robertson -> Dunk, but both those moves are better done next week, not this. What I really want is to float a transfer and have more info next week. But I have to do something, right?

Thing is, I was in exactly the same position last week, having two moves and nothing I wanted to do immediately. In the end I did TAA -> Balbuena, and in hindsight I genuinely feel like doing nothing and wasting a transfer might have been the optimal choice. Is that the case again this week? Can anyone spot something I can't?
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dod
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Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by dod »

Caf wrote: 08 Nov 2018, 20:44 Time for a game of 'spot the move'...

Here's my squad, 2FT, 0.8 itb.

IMG_0817.PNG

I'd pencilled in a double switch of Richarlison -> Mane, Aguero -> Ings/Jimenez/Murray this week, but my two boys in the last-chance saloon have complicated things by registering hauls in GW11. Now Richarlison is getting transfers in and, with City appearing to realise their explosive potential, can anyone really ship out Aguero?

So the Mane move appears dead. Another idea is Fraser -> Martial with an enabling move like Robertson -> Dunk, but both those moves are better done next week, not this. What I really want is to float a transfer and have more info next week. But I have to do something, right?

Thing is, I was in exactly the same position last week, having two moves and nothing I wanted to do immediately. In the end I did TAA -> Balbuena, and in hindsight I genuinely feel like doing nothing and wasting a transfer might have been the optimal choice. Is that the case again this week? Can anyone spot something I can't?
I'd be tempted by Richarlison to Shaqiri as you have a spare Pool spot. Shaq missed the midweek trip to sunny Serbia for political reasons so is rested and likely to have a role against FUL.

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Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Caf »

Thanks, dod. Shaq seems like a good one-weeker but after that surely his minutes problem will return and he’ll be a transfer out waiting to happen. I’ll monitor Richarlison’s fitness as if he’s out, that narrows down the options somewhat.

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Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Caf »

Wildcard is live! Critique this lot:

Fabianski / Hamer
Alonso / Robertson / TAA / Digne / Wan-Bissaka
Sterling / Sané / F Anderson / Son / Camarasa
Auba / Arnautovic / Wilson

I’m happy with the balance and strength of outfield squad overall. Main question is whether my unconditional faith in West Ham players will be rewarded. I could potentially take Doherty/Siggy in place of Digne/Anderson, or downgrade Arnie to a cheapo and upgrade to 5 playing mids.

And if anyone can recommend a better 4.5 mid let me know :lol:

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Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by dod »

I like it but then I would as it's very similar to my own wildcard :lol: . The main difference is I went with a 2 man attack whereas you have 3 up front. Basically you have Wilson while I have Mane. I think that's a flip of the coin decision.

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Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

I like it, looks very strong. Only hesitation would be doubling up on West Ham attackers, feels like a lot of eggs in an unreliable basket. I would go Mitrovic over Arnautovic if I had Anderson (I'm thinking of going that way myself). Hojbjerg is 4.4m, he's scored a couple of goals and has been good whenever I've seen him play. Only downside is the uncertainty from having a new manager.

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Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Caf »

Thanks both. Looks like I'm nearly there…

AR, I'd be interested in your rationale for bringing in Mitro – seems very recent that his owners were desperate to get rid of him. Is he genuinely looking like a better prospect under Ranieri? I'd be inclined to wait a few weeks and see, given that it's easy to get to him, but then again I haven't seen much of Fulham's last couple of games. I do actually have exact funds to get to Cairney for my fifth mid so I could maybe test the waters that way.

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Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Caf »

So, who thinks I should wildcard away from this bunch?
47D9FF9A-6BA7-4E8E-9811-8D405D3B3CD2.png
Right now, it seems mightily tempting, but I should try to approach this with some cold detachment rather than post-red-arrow emotion.

So here’s my current list of reasons for and against:

FOR WILDCARD
- Hamer, AWB, Laporte, Rashford, Kamara and maybe Jota are unlikely to play next week
- I have no Man City attackers when they’re entering a sublime fixture run
- Not too well set up for the blank gameweeks in 31 and 33 (might have 6-7 players with free transfers only)
- Rank has gone from 2k to 12k in four weeks and I would like to shake things up

AGAINST WILDCARD
- Two most expensive players and best captain choices (Salah & Auba) already in place for GW28
- Lacking fixture info with which to assemble the best WC squad
- Lose the opportunity to WC in GW34 and navigate the blanks/doubles that way; would need to ‘hedge my bets’
- I have 3.1ITB so could potentially spend that to do some squad surgery instead of WCing
- Rank has gone from 2k to 12k in four weeks and I might regret a rage-based WC in a week’s time. ;)

Any opinions welcome! Thanks
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Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Caf »

I think I’ve cooled on the WC now, though next week is still very much a possibility.

Right now, I need to do at least one transfer to get 11 on the pitch. I could do

Rashford -> Aguero
Laporte -> Yedlin

for -4 :idea:

Or revert to a more standard move for Rondón or Barnes. Probably won’t decide tonight and will just let Rondón rise.

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Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Caf »

Quick poll as my wildcard finger is getting twitchy. I’ve spent -4 already and still have a team of turds for this week:

Fabianski
Robertson Luiz Yedlin Pereira
Salah Hazard Westwood
Higuain

Plus 6 non-players. 0.4 ITB.

I could stick with that, take yet more hits, or wildcard to:

Guaita, Boruc
Robertson, Laporte, Lejeune, AWB, Ogbonna
Salah, Mané, Hazard, Pogba, McNeil
Vardy, Wilson, Jimenez

Which gives me 11 for this week including a couple more of the stronger propositions, a probable 11 for GW33, and I can FH through GW32. I’d be struggling to build a big GW35 team though (and I have BB left so no idea when I’d use that).

Should I just hold off? Feels like WCing would be a bit kneejerky, but my season is slipping away and there’s only 8 weeks left to do something about it, so not sure having another poor week as an ‘investment in future weeks’ is all that appealing either.

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Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

If I were you I would just take a -8 and bring in Mane and Wilson/Vardy. That covers all the main bases for the upcoming week and is just as strong as your WC team.

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Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Caf »

Thanks AR. Those hits would definitely be worth it if they give me an extra player in GW33 too; whether they do depends on the outcome of Watford v Palace in the FA Cup, as I have Lejeune and AWB but no one of significance from Palace or Fulham. 1.59pm decision it is :)

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Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Caf »

Let's go! 2020/21! Can't wait for the extra element to this year's game: "Guess which players will suddenly go into isolation before the deadline." :)
In all seriousness - I hope everyone's safe and I'm looking forward to getting going with a new season.

My aim is very much to keep my RMT alive this season, tracking my performance using two main conceits:

- Charting overall points rather than overall rank for most of the season
- Judging each player by a points-achieved metric of 'P-2' or achieving 2 less than their price per week, on average.
It's a yardstick inspired by baganboy's model in his thread - but the way I do it is much, much worse and less thought through. That's what you get with me I'm afraid :D

I could go into more detail on why I've decided to do that, but for now, let's do the team:
IMG_3478.jpeg
Feels kinda-nailed but not completely nailed. My overview of the players, colour-coded by how comfortable I am having them:

McCarthy - Threw him in as an 'any 4.5' pick and thought I'd deal with him later. Since then, I have not dealt with the GK position whatsoever and McCarthy has somehow solidified in my mind as the 'obvious' keeper pick. Still not thinking that much about keepers :lol: but I'm trying to keep as many players for as many weeks as possible, and for his low price McCarthy can probably stick around for a while.
Button - 0-pointers incoming. Keeping 0.5 banked rather than upgrade him. Shrug emoji.

TAA - most obvious pick in the game. Hugely underpriced and should have cost about 9. Never left a draft. Get in Trent.
Robbo - pretty much has the same points potential as TAA and costs 0.5 less. If TAA and Robbo combine for 400 points, I could leave them in the team all season and they'll be doing everything I need them to. Hoping they stay fit.
KWP - didn't set out deliberately to get double SOU defence, but KWP individually seems one of the best 4.5 defender picks. Decent team, has some attacking potential, no rotation worries. Not expecting fireworks but he could do decently.
Ferguson - whatever. Could be Mitchell instead. Don't really care :lol:
Vinagre - Not in love with Vinegar given his rotation/replacement/sale rumours. But he seems like he starts GW1, has a bigger upside than every other 4.5 defender, and who knows, maybe he stays and keeps his spot... But if there's another 4.5 defender who's decent for GW1, I'd swap in an instant :oops:

Havertz - real talent, playing for a transformed team, probably underpriced, ready to go from GW1, likely to start as CHE have a couple of players out. The usual tactic with new signings is 'wait and see' but I'm confident to go with him from the start.
Bruno - Hopefully not going into quarantine, in which case it's time for evasive manoeuvres... Otherwise, he's playing for a strong attacking team, has so many routes to points (just call him the Portuguese Milivojevic), will be a popular pick and potential price-riser, is captainable GW2, and I've found a squad structure to allow me to hide him in GW1. Nice!
Salah - huge indecision on this. Auba has a better GW2 fixture, potentially a better GW1 fixture too... and although Auba is a sure transfer out in GW3, Salah could be a transfer out in GW2! He's not an obvious captain choice for at least four gameweeks after that. But I just don't trust Auba in the same way... he plays for a worse attacking team (5th/6th best and LIV maybe 3rd?) and frustrates his managers as much as he rewards them. Salah always pulls it out of the bag, is a fantasy player through-and-through and I really can't see him not returning against Leeds. Despite all this, I could change my mind up to 10:59. Any input welcome :)
Saint-Maximin - 'the one I could afford'. Nailed, NEW might be better with Wilson arriving, might have some potential... but I'm not enthused and also wonder if Saka will score more points for the same price.
Burke - awful, despise him, would rather have anyone else... but he's 4.5. Maybe I should just get Bissouma?

Werner - underpriced, world-class striker. Actually considered captaining him GW1. In so many teams and mine.
DCL - if you told me the day last season ended that I'd start with DCL in 2020/21, I'd have laughed... but truth is there are so many reasons to pick him. Everton have invested very well, are playing under a world-class manager, DCL will sit in the box and get all the chances, he's comparable to Ings but got a far smaller price rise, saves money on other Everton options... Seems a good prospect to go with and see what happens.
Adams - 'the one I could afford pt2'. Feel OK about Che though. He posts good stats whenever he plays - feel he's been priced in line with what he did last year, i.e. not playing very much. Assuming he does get a longer run in the team, he could approach Ings's score while costing 2.5 less. Still, there is no way you could describe him as anything other than 'punt'.

-

So that colour-coding reveals my main insecurities about the team:
- Not entirely happy with the midfield
- Wondering if Martial is a better Man Utd pick than Fernandes
- Not sure if/when/how Man City assets get in there - surely they're still the best attacking team in the league?!
- Lack of Wolves players (I'd nailed Doherty into my team before his transfer)
- Team felt quite maverick when I was building it, but perhaps it's actually highly template :?

Less than 12 hours to go, convince me to change my team :)
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Caf
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Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Caf »

Morning tinker round the edges: Justin comes in for Vinagre and Bissouma in for Burke.
Think I’m done now. Salah over Auba is a decision I can live with. Not entirely happy with Adams and Saint-Max, but strangely, investing a bit more money in those positions doesn’t actually seem to open up any better options. :shock:

See you on the other side...

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Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Smurphy Paw »

I like it
I just commented on your 1x£12m mid post in STC. Then checked in here and see tat you have Bruno hiding away on your bench. I am considering Mo/Mane, Auba, KDB and Bruno as effectively the same premium slot but the £1.5m saving is a consideration.

Caf
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Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Caf »

:)

Martial at 9.0 was a consideration instead of Bruno, but I found myself unable to put that extra 1.5 to particularly good use! There seems to be a lack of good midfielders in the 6-7m bracket (excluding the likes of Foden and Greenwood who miss GW1). Otherwise I would have considered doing that and upgrading Saint-Max.

Rotation of the premium slot looks like it will be quite common for me this season. Funnily enough I have never been an advocate of this strategy in previous seasons. But on top of the initial fixture disruption, there’s also just a lot of firepower in the league this year, between Man City, Chelsea, Man Utd etc... hoping that means we see attacking performances that reward ‘chasing the big scores’. It’s still risky though, and the only way to make it work without busloads of hits is to pick as many ‘season keepers’ as possible elsewhere in the team so I’m not spending transfers/tempo on the 4.5 guys.

Of course this will all go wrong the minute GW1 starts and my players get rested, dropped, injured, sent off or quarantined... :)

Caf
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Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Caf »

GW1 done!

77 points to get me going.

I'd take that any week of course, but it was a weird week in terms of how we arrived at our scores... normally you'd expect to build a GW score with a range of contributions from different players, but this week just boiled down to 'Did you have Salah (c)?' If you did, you had a good week - end of!

Having decided to judge my players by a points benchmark, this is the worst possible week to start doing it, since most weeks I'm not going to be burying so much of my team value on the bench. Which makes the following a bit meaningless but let's run through the squad anyway:

Player - targeted average - actual average
McCarthy - 2.5 - 2
KWP - 2.5 - 1
TAA - 5.5 - 1
Robertson - 5 - 4
Justin - 2.5 - 9
Salah - 10 - 40!!

Havertz - 6.5 - 2
Saint-Max - 3.5 - 3
DCL - 5 - 8
Adams - 4 - 2
Werner - 7.5 - 5
Button, Ferguson, Bruno, Bissouma - 0

Now that I've categorised the players, my main decision for GW2 is... whether to get rid of Salah :lol:
Yeah, it makes no sense, but I really can't seem him averaging 10ppw for me over GWs 2-5, since I probably wouldn't captain him once in that time. A Man City player would get the armband in GW3 (though that might be the only time during that period), and, well, it's Man City and they can stick four past anyone. The main question is whether to move right now - it's not super-urgent, since I have a ready-made GW2 captain in Bruno. As such, I'm leaning towards doing nothing and gaining a free transfer and valuable information. I was thinking about some 'conclusions' from GW1 but in honesty, all of them could be completely nullified or overturned next week - so waiting and seeing has a certain appeal. Just need to mull over what I sacrifice for the extra information - i.e. does KDB massively outscore Salah next week?

Caf
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Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Caf »

GW2 done (for me)

49 points all out for a season total of 126, with the rest of the pack getting two further matches to move ahead of me tonight. Ouch! I miss the halcyon days of 'Saturday lunchtime' when I had 17 from 1 :lol:

In the end, I rolled my transfer and kept Salah rather than swapping him for KDB. My reasoning was mostly: 'Liverpool's attack looks good, Chelsea's defence looks bad, we haven't seen Man City's attack yet but it is presumably very good, and Wolves are decent. I can imagine both Pool and City getting 2 goals - and who knows who will actually score them? So I may as well stick with who I have rather than sacrifice my FT to a dice roll.'
Well, Liverpool got 2 goals and Salah blanked, so I look forward to Man City winning 2-0 tonight with KDB getting them both ;)

The updated averages make for depressing reading:

Player - targeted average - actual average
McCarthy - 2.5 - 1
TAA - 5.5 - 4
Robertson - 5 - 5
Justin - 2.5 - 8
Salah - 10 - 21.5

Havertz - 6.5 - 1.5
Saint-Max - 3.5 - 2 (and injured)

DCL - 5 - 12.5
Adams - 4 - 2
Werner - 7.5 - 3.5
Bruno - 8.5 - 4


Benched this week:
KWP - 2.5 - 1
Button, Ferguson, Bissouma - n/a (thanks for the red card though!)



Should I wildcard?

It's been a crazy week by PL standards, with huge scores everywhere and big points swings in FPL. In not unrelated news, a lot of people are using their wildcards and pivoting to a team composed of those who impressed early. If those players keep it up, I'm going to lose an awful lot of ground.
I do have 2 FTs and would like to keep my WC in hand, essentially giving a 'hypothesis not disproved yet' verdict on my players and plodding on. Unfortunately, I can't really do that because the decision (whichever way it goes) requires making some big overall calls on what I think some teams are going to do, most notably Chelsea. They have stumbled out of the starting blocks and I have 18mill invested in them. Havertz has not impressed and, despite good fixtures and the prospect of improvement, must count as 'expendable' if I need the money or midfield slot. Werner has been one of their better players IMO but I do need to keep captaincy in mind. Is he trustworthy enough to captain in GW4 or is Salah @AVL now the safe option? What about GW5 - captain him or double-swap to someone like Son for the armband? The latter requires enough surgery that I may as well just wildcard and restructure the whole team, getting rid of injured ASM, suspended Bissouma and my nightmarish Southampton triple while I'm at it.

Writing it out, I'm not totally sold on the above - no matter how good he was in GW2, it feels knee-jerky to instantly promote Son from 'avoid forever, it's Mourinho' to 'preferred captaincy asset'. But I still want to shore up my captaincy options. Salah has started to look like a long-term hold: Liverpool are playing well and scoring goals, and Mo was still very much involved against Chelsea (4 shots / 5 key passes). If he's in the captaincy conversation for GW4, that's all I really need to tide me over to to GW6 when his fixtures get reeeeeeeally good. (Quick aside: Trent and Robbo also look like long-term holds, as hoped. They, and DCL, are the only ones I've really got right so far!)

A Man City player will also enter my team sharpish. Haven't seen them kick a ball yet in the Prem, obviously, but it is hard to imagine them being anything other than an elite attacking force, as they have been every season since I started playing FPL. Not having any of their players is pretty much a problem that I need to correct. And a premium Man City attacker will be a captaincy option for every one of the next five weeks, I reckon. Even @SHU, which the fixture ratings have somehow determined is a 4, really isn't bad...

The GW3 plan

So that's the plan - get in KDB (or Sterling I guess - will try and catch the game tonight to help make my mind up) any way I can. Currently, that 'way' is to remove Bruno. His greeny-white fixture ticker is deceptive, IMO, and I can't see a strong captainable fixture for him until GW9(!) The best fixture is probably this week's @BHA, but - although I think Man Utd will surely improve and challenge for top 4 - that isn't guaranteed to happen at a lively-looking Brighton. Can't keep a premium player you won't captain in six, so Bruno has to go, knee-jerky as that move is.
All good except I only saved 0.5 so I can't actually afford Bruno -> KDB! My options are as follows:

1) Bruno -> KDB, ASM -> any 5.0 midfielder. (But are there any good ones whatsoever?!)
2) Bruno -> KDB, Havertz & ASM -> any two mids costing no more than 13.5. (Costs me -4)

My three transfers for consideration are: Bruno, Havertz, ASM -> KDB, Traore, Foden (-4).

Gets me more heavily invested than average in Man City, which can only be a good thing. Also, Wolves's fixtures are exceptional and getting in a proven asset for them seems like a strong idea (and Adama is surely more nailed than Podence). On the downside, it's a -4, Havertz could haul and punish me, and I still won't have dealt with my Southampton triple!
Let's see what information tonight's game brings :)
Last edited by Caf on 22 Sep 2020, 13:48, edited 1 time in total.

Caf
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Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Caf »

Caf wrote: 21 Sep 2020, 17:53 Well, Liverpool got 2 goals and Salah blanked, so I look forward to Man City winning 2-0 tonight with KDB getting them both ;)
I wasn't too far off ;)

Tonight's game has done nothing to throw my planned transfers off course, except I might switch my Wolves preference back to Podence. Admittedly the eye test was biased against Adama tonight because he won't play RWB forever, but Podence was *really* involved and clearly demonstrated his upside. The downside is that he'll be competing with Adama, Neto, Fabio Silva et al for his place - but right now, that place appears his to lose. For 5.5 I think it's okay to take the 'greed' route: get him for the next few weeks and hope for longer.

Seems like I should get on with the moves before prices change. Midweek be damned!

Caf
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Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Caf »

GW3 is done and dusted!

Well, those moves were disastrous... 17 points out, 4 in, and I took a hit to achieve it!
Despite that, I somehow managed a green arrow with 54 (-4) for a season total of 176. Had I forgotten to log into FPL all week and not changed anything from GW2, I would be on 203, but I suppose we miss out on these kinds of opportunity every week.

Player averages post GW3:

Player - targeted average - actual average
McCarthy - 2.5 - 2.67
TAA - 5.5 - 5
Robertson - 5 - 6.67
Justin - 2.5 - 5.67
KWP - 2.5 - 3.5
Salah - 10 - 15.67

KDB - 9.5 - 4
Foden - 4.5 - 2

DCL - 5 - 10.33
Adams - 4 - 2.67
Werner - 7.5 - 3


Benched this week:
Button, Ferguson, Bissouma, Podence - 0 minutes between 'em!

That's looking quite a bit 'greener' than last week, but (Salah excepted) it's the cheaper players who are hitting their targets, while a lot of value is going into a premium midfield and premium striker slot that hasn't been performing yet. This tells me that my main priorities if I want to climb the ranks are a) getting better scores from my captains, b) assessing Werner's spot in the team. Which anyone could have told me anyway. :)

The transfer plan for GW4 is clear: don't make one. My team looks fine and, while others ship out Werner, I am happy to give him two promising-looking home fixtures and don't see an especially better way to spend my 9.5. I'm actually benching KWP at present, so my squad has a small amount of depth for the first time... depth that's sorely needed, with lack of manager info on injuries (see: Podence) compounding the general uncertainty associated with COVIDball.

The big question is who gets the captain's armband. Werner feels punty and drops out of the running, given that there are proven point-scoring premiums in my team, even if they have a 'worse' away fixture. (Lots of away wins in the league so far...)
So, Salah or KDB? Feels like a coin toss. LIV have started better and Salah's inherent greediness always appeals. On the other hand, Pool still feel like a team who prefer to get to 2 or 3 goals and stop, whereas in any given game Man City might hit 5 or 6 if things 'click'. As for opponent, Villa posted solid defensive stats post-lockdown and appear to have picked that up in 2020/21 too - though surely they won't be a match for Liverpool anyway? Leeds play an open game and in GWs 1 and 2 appeared to be heading for 'opponent to target with attacking players' status. But they introduced some doubt by shoring that up against Sheff Utd (still conceded 1.54xG, though, so the chances were there).

Four days of deliberation lie ahead. The bus team has the armband on KDB.

Caf
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 1195
Joined: 30 Mar 2016, 21:17
FS Record: Mostly 250k finishes!

Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Caf »

GW4 review: What the hell is going on?

Well, I got 44 points, which isn't great - but analysing the performance of my FPL team seems to miss the point. We need to do an underlying analysis of what's going on in football itself. I've never seen results or performances of the kind we are currently getting regularly, and it seems clear that 'lockdown football' has something to do with it.

I'm not proposing to change my overall strategy just yet - but I'm going to leave a few hypotheses here, to be tested over the next few weeks:

1) Without crowds, players are less awestruck by the occasion, meaning 'small teams' are more likely to have a go and create chances against 'big teams'
2) Home advantage counts for very little
3) Players aren't maintaining their mental discipline and are slipping into a free-attacking "we'll score more than you" mindset.

Either something changes and the season reverts to type (and we reject the above hypotheses), or we're about to have the strangest season in history. I do wonder about the effect on all our attitudes/engagement if the latter happens - if it seems like teams' scores are just a random number from 0-7 every week, will we see much point in putting a large amount of effort into our FPL teams, or indeed in supporting a club, spending money on football content, etc?

Too early to say. For now, I'll stick to my FPL lane. I have not had a spectacular start, but I would say my overall structure and decision-making rationale has been OK. I've just got every 50/50 call wrong and have failed to get captaincy right most of the time.

The updated player averages tell me almost nothing :lol: but here they are anyway!

Player - targeted average - actual average
McCarthy - 2.5 - 4.25
TAA - 5.5 - 4.5
Robertson - 5 - 5.75
KWP - 2.5 - 4
Salah - 10 - 15.25

KDB - 9.5 - 4
Foden - 4.5 - 2

Podence - 3.5 - 3
DCL - 5 - 9.25
Werner - 7.5 - 2.75
Adams - 4 - 2.5


Benched this week:
Button, Justin, Ferguson, Bissouma. A rare right decision to bring KWP in over Justin. Shame I didn't also bring in Bissouma ;)

Last week I said I needed to address the Werner spot and get value from captaincy. And I put that right into action with Werner and captain KDB blanking :D

A potential move that will address both is:

Bissouma, Werner --> Son, Brewster

Or I could save a transfer and just do: Werner --> Kane.

Saving seems like a good idea, plus Kane has pens and gives me a way to Aguero in a few weeks... but the nagging question is, 'Is Son going to get a lot more points than Kane?' Another 50/50 decision I'm about to get wrong :)

Caf
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 1195
Joined: 30 Mar 2016, 21:17
FS Record: Mostly 250k finishes!

Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Caf »

Well, the IB ruined all my plans and it looks like Werner is getting a stay of execution.
The KDB injury meant I skipped the middle man and went straight from KDB to Son.
But with an hour to deadline, I’m still clueless as to what to do next...
0A8107C6-20A0-4AB7-AE6F-7BD87F4D33F1.jpeg
(Yes, there’s some top benchw**kery in this screenshot)


1 FT and 3.9 in the bank. Feels like there are lots of ways I could spend it :lol:
Best way to retain my current team structure is transfer out Adams, but I can’t figure out a good replacement. There are lots of options in midfield, but it’s not clear who to transfer *out*!

Any last-minute advice appreciated :)
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Caf
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 1195
Joined: 30 Mar 2016, 21:17
FS Record: Mostly 250k finishes!

Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Caf »

GW5 and 6 in one

It appears I neglected my thread somewhat... so I'll cover the last two GWs very briefly.

In GW5, I rolled one transfer and used the other to do KDB -> Son. It was a fairly obvious transfer with the KDB injury; it fit with my plan to spend transfers on the big hitters, but was pretty much the most unthinking way to enact that plan. :)
Still, it worked out. Son got the armband for 13x2, and contributed to a not-too-shabby 85 despite not having Kane (the unfashionable duo of Werner and Adams filled in for him!)

GW6's move was Werner -> Kane. This was a bit more of an interesting decision. Despite having finally managed to start scoring, Werner wasn't ever getting captained, and 9.5 is too much for that. Problem is, none of his replacements were going to be captained in GWs 6-8 either! If Kun had a plum fixture or two, I may well have gone for him, but as things were, Salah and Son would get the armband over him until GW9 at least. Kane, meanwhile, might *never* be captained as long as I have Son.
So this was a position that is doomed to fail to meet its point-scoring targets. In the end, I figured that means I can 'have fun' with it, get in the on-form and highly-owned player, and just hope for a few good scores until I transfer him out again.
So, that's where I stand: I have Kane in, and am already thinking about transferring him out. :)
GW6 score was 53, putting me on 358 overall. Not a bad place to be - if only I can sort out captaincy (4/6 blanks so far).

Player performance

I bit the bullet and made a spreadsheet to track player performance against targets. Doing the mental arithmetic was getting too difficult to bear!

HERE is the sheet updated as of GW6.

Lots of 'green' indicating players are hitting target, which is nice. And Kane is more-or-less guaranteed to miss his, which is OK. That only leaves TAA - but I'm minded to keep him if at all possible, and certainly won't ditch him ahead of WHU.

The GW7 plan (or lack thereof)

Which leaves me in another pickle ahead of GW7: 2 FTs, 2.4 in the bank, and nothing I want to do! Squad before transfers is:

McCarthy Button
TAA Robbo KWP Justin Ferguson
Salah Son Foden Podence Bissouma
Kane DCL Adams

The two options on my mind (rolling the second transfer in either case) are:

1) Justin -> Kilman
2) Podence -> Grealish

1) frees up a few decimals for future transfers, gives me a starter with a slightly better fixture this week, and generally doesn't have a lot of downside as long as you don't think Kilman is about to get dropped. But it's more-or-less passing a turn this week, isn't hugely impactful, and certainly isn't concentrating transfers on the high-scoring players.
2) goes for more impact and uses up more budget. But I may need some convincing about Grealish/Villa - surely they are more variable than their early-season hot form suggests. Podence has a good fixture this week - could I actually lose points by shipping him out? (I'm amused by how, despite not getting a single attacking return for me, Podence is very nearly meeting his points target anyway! Imagine if he ever actually did anything :lol:)

I suspect that what tips the decision won't be these players on their own, but my wider opinion on the other high-impact teams, notably Chelsea and Man City. Option 1 gives me exact change for Podence -> Pulisic. Chelsea have good fixtures; perhaps they will finally hit good form? In which case, that promises excellent value. Separately, do I think there will be a rush to get Man City players in from GW10? It could easily happen if they finally start scoring just as their good fixture run comes around. Do I need to be planning around being able to invest my budget in KDB at that point - or will selling Kane be enough?

Lots of big issues to ponder as I move towards a small-scale, low-impact decision this week :lol:

Paspertoon
Cheetah
Posts: 4
Joined: 01 Apr 2020, 19:30

Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Paspertoon »

I figured that means I can 'have fun' with it, get in the on-form and highly-owned player, and just hope for a few good scores until I transfer him out again.
So, that's where I stand: I have Kane in, and am already thinking about transferring him out.

Caf
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 1195
Joined: 30 Mar 2016, 21:17
FS Record: Mostly 250k finishes!

Re: Don't panic! It's Caf’s RMT

Post by Caf »

Quick thought on the Spurs attack

The Spurs game was exciting last weekend, huh? But probably not so thrilling if you brought Son in for it (I didn’t) or captained him or even Maddison (I did).

Watching the highlights, I get the clear impression that, although Spurs have filled the Kane position with Richarlison/Son, they haven’t really filled the position at all - more like they’ve changed how they play. Someone might be listed as a forward on the stats sites, but there is no single focal point that everything is funnelled towards any more.

In the early stages of the game, the best chances fell to… Bissouma. Solomon was also heavily involved (4 shots). Yeah, Son got a few shots too (3, same as Maddison who should probably have had an assist too, and Pape Sarr). And Kulusevski (7 shots) beat them all for xGI in the end!

For me, based on the few games so far, stats match eye test in this regard. Basically they seem to be spreading it around the team a lot more. Last season, the answer to “which Spurs player is likeliest to get a hattrick next week” was Kane, always Kane. Now I don’t think it’s clear. In GW4 it was Son but next week it could be Sarr. Or more likely no one. I think we’ve been tricked a bit by assuming someone is going to be the new Kane.

I like them, they play attacking football and will surely keep scoring, they are reasonably priced in FPL, owning their players seems like a generally good idea. But the ‘rush to get a specific player ahead of a specific week’, as we just saw with Son, might be a mistake. Especially when paired with captaincy. Alternative hypothesis for testing:

Spurs attackers are a good prospect but their exact returns are unpredictable, so if you want to get their points, you need to hold them for the long-term and play them every week.

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