ARs Thinking Space

[SG_8]

I would do the FH18 too I think.. -8 doesn't seem ideal.. And with 2FTs looks like you could BB in 19 as well..

[blahblah]

I'm expecting better opportunities later in the season, especially given the possibility of COVID hitting matches - remember British footballers are seriously thick (as a general rule).....

[Aldershot Rejects]

What is your plan for DCL for the double?

He stays, his underlying stats are still good and decent fixtures post the dgw.

[Aldershot Rejects]

So JWP to Romeo and Masuaku to Chilwell for a hit which sorts out my structural issue.
Having confirmed the transfer I neglected to adjust my team so Romeo starts instead of sitting 3rd on my bench. That's what happens when I leave transfers to the last minute and sneak out on the family to make them.

I am now committed to FH18 and well set up for BB19 although there is a lot that can happen between now and then.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Oh and Vardy (c)

[Aldershot Rejects]

So it turns out accidently benching Soucek (see above) was a bad idea. You can now guarantee that the rest of my team play.

[fred1266]

So it turns out accidently benching Soucek (see above) was a bad idea. You can now guarantee that the rest of my team play.

and me coufal

[Aldershot Rejects]

So it turns out accidently benching Soucek (see above) was a bad idea. You can now guarantee that the rest of my team play.

and me coufal

Oh, I benched him as well but that was deliberate.

In fact, I probably should have BB'd this week

[Smurphy Paw]

Ouch!

Sadly I can empathise with Coufal picking up splinters for me

[fred1266]

had him intially in squad and then just decided DCL might score who i also have, this is a product of preparing for BGW and DGW usually i would be have someone like Romeo who i would have been benched

[SG_8]

So it turns out accidently benching Soucek (see above) was a bad idea. You can now guarantee that the rest of my team play.

Another Soucek + Coufal bencher here. First haul from Soucek that I've missed since having him in my team

[Aldershot Rejects]

So it turns out accidently benching Soucek (see above) was a bad idea. You can now guarantee that the rest of my team play.

Another Soucek + Coufal bencher here. First haul from Soucek that I've missed since having him in my team

I've had him in almost all season and missed every haul I think.

[Ruth_NZ]

I think it may be that people have Souček wrongly compartmentalised in their thinking. He's a genuine, play-every-week midfielder who is worth at least 7m. The nature of his aerial strength is such that he can score against anyone.

Mourinho in October: "I told them to be aware of set-pieces, where we knew they were very strong. David found in Souček his new Fellaini."

Fellaini averaged 6-7 goals a season over 4 seasons when playing for Moyes at Everton. And of course played under Mourinho at United. So if anyone would know, it would be José.

I think Dendoncker at Wolves will be capable of having a similar impact when fit again. Both he and Souček are really box-to-box midfielders who tend to get missed by many of the charts and stats people tend to use.

[Aldershot Rejects]

I think it may be that people have Souček wrongly compartmentalised in their thinking. He's a genuine, play-every-week midfielder who is worth at least 7m. The nature of his aerial strength is such that he can score against anyone.

You may be right - initially I had him has perma first sub as I reckoned 2 rotating 4.5-5.0 defenders would outscore him and for the first 10 weeks they comfortably outscored him - he only scored 1 goal in that time (and that was in week 8). I think that as a relatively new player in the league (who really impressed me at the end of last season), it was sensible to be cautious. Of course, he has now scored 4 in the last 7, although I don't see that as sustainable either.

Given that we are half-way through the season (almost), it would seem reasonable to assume that he could double his goal tally over the second half of the season - so in total we have 10 goals in the season. Every time he has scored this season he has secured bonus points so each goal is worth about 6.5 points which is excellent. Sounds good, and you are correct that this is probably worth 7m (at least). I suspect that there will be runs of 5-8 weeks where he blanks every week though.

For myself the question is still whether to play 4-3-3 with two rotating defenders or 3-4- with Soucek as M4. I think at the moment he possibly marginally shades it - I'd hope that by rotating defenders I could get 12-15 clean sheets plus some attacking points - although there are occasions where I would prefer a defender (Sheff Utd, WBA, etc) - I think defensive points are probably more predictable than Soucek (as you say he can score against anyone).

[Ruth_NZ]

I think that as a relatively new player in the league (who really impressed me at the end of last season), it was sensible to be cautious. Of course, he has now scored 4 in the last 7, although I don't see that as sustainable either... I suspect that there will be runs of 5-8 weeks where he blanks every week.

For myself the question is still whether to play 4-3-3 with two rotating defenders or 3-4-3 with Soucek as M4. I think at the moment he possibly marginally shades it - I'd hope that by rotating defenders I could get 12-15 clean sheets plus some attacking points - although there are occasions where I would prefer a defender (Sheff Utd, WBA, etc) - I think defensive points are probably more predictable than Soucek (as you say he can score against anyone).

Yes, of course not sustainable at that level and agreed that there will be spells of 8 games with zip. This is our old conversation about the ability to set-and-forget a slot, no? To play it for points averaged over a season.

I wasn't really trying to 2nd-guess what you or anyone else did and can see why there'd have been some caution. Dendoncker - who's of the same type but doesn't have as strong a career goal history as Souček - hasn't scored all season. For me, it was when I came across Mourinho's comments that the penny dropped because I wasn't playing FPL nor watching football with that mindset at all last season, mainly just watching Chelsea games. It's not just Souček's ability, it is Moyes' record of knowing how to exploit what a player like that can do.

One of the things I came back to FPL with is a much bigger scepticism about rotation in general. I'm just not sure it works all that well. I'd see Souček as someone you can play every week (or almost every week if you have a cheaper defender with a great fixture), allowing you to have more budget elsewhere.

Is it really 3-4-3 or 4-3-3 for you? Isn't 4-4-2 an option? Getting squeeze from the 3rd striker isn't the easiest thing (and forwards tend to score lower on value than any other position). Mind you, I guess it could be said that Bamford is another under-priced nugget that you can set and forget - at least for now until such time as the Bielsawagon runs out of gas.

[Aldershot Rejects]

One of the things I came back to FPL with is a much bigger scepticism about rotation in general. I'm just not sure it works all that well. I'd see Souček as someone you can play every week (or almost every week if you have a cheaper defender with a great fixture), allowing you to have more budget elsewhere.

That's always been my opinion but I decided to give it a go this season. I started with Konsa & Bednarek which I wish I had stuck with (I took Bednarek out on wc shortly after the Spurs match). Like all these things, I think it can work if you get the right players but I suspect that often it doesn't. I suspect it works well when you have one player you are happy to play 75% of the time rather than splitting fixtures 50:50 [but I have no evidence to back this up!]

Is it really 3-4-3 or 4-3-3 for you? Isn't 4-4-2 an option? Getting squeeze from the 3rd striker isn't the easiest thing (and forwards tend to score lower on value than any other position). Mind you, I guess it could be said that Bamford is another under-priced nugget that you can set and forget - at least for now until such time as the Bielsawagon runs out of gas.

4-4-2 can work if you are happy to have a Brewster-shaped deadspot in your team. At the moment, I think Bamford is the best sub 7m attacking asset in the game and given his fixtures I am happy to set and forget while his fixtures stay good and Leeds continue to score. I've been trying to build in as many set-and-forget players as possible in the sub-premium attacking part of my team - Grealish, Soucek, DCL & Bamford at present although my loyalty to DCL (especially as I was quite late on him) is beginning to get a bit stretched - although the problem isn't really DCL but the lack of service at the moment.

[Ruth_NZ]

Yeah, last time I looked, DCL's stats were still good? I think he still has plenty to offer, Everton will get on another run at some stage and 21-24 look right handy for them. I'd keep him if I had him.

Personally I can't wait to get back to my Brewster-deadspot come the 2nd wildcard. With the BB out of the way I'll never have to worry about that slot again. Though I prefer 3-5-2 now with Souček as M5.

G + A so far from my captain. Might be a sighting of a very rare bird: a good GW for my team. Haven't had many since picking the game up again.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Ha. My captaincy choices have been awful all season. Who would be your preferred M4 in a 3-5-2?

[Ruth_NZ]

Maddison at the moment. Jota when fit. Zaha at a stretch. That kind of level.

[Smurphy Paw]

Depends on what cash you have left.
Isn’t M4 the last pick if you have Soucek as M5. Although I had Soucek M4 for a while and it worked out fine

[blahblah]

Ward Prowse?

[Aldershot Rejects]

The yoyo continues - 54(-4) and a big fat red arrow taking me marginally outside the top 1m. I also lost my cup match by 1 point. It could have been so much worse as well - thankfully Romeu managed to injure himself in training allowing Soucek's points to come in so my stupidity didn't cost me. Having two keepers from the team also paid off as Forster stepped up manfully to take over goalkeeping duties although in truth he probably hasn't had many easier matches over his career.

My main problems at the moment seem to be captaincy (I can't buy a correct choice) and being on the wrong premiums. The top sides are so inconsistent at the moment that this feels like a bit of a lottery.

This week also shows the problems with BBing. I'm pretty sure I wouldn't have made the transfers I did this week if I didn't have BB19 (following FH18) in mind. Or perhaps it is that interaction between the two that is difficult? If I am playing BB away from a WC I would ideally like two free transfers going into the week - it just gives you more flexibility in terms of what you can do to your side without getting into -8s as well as minimising the period of time your team is disrupted for (although I do try and minimise that disruption anyway). FH next week meant I had to do some of the preparation this week which wasn't ideal either in terms of the fixtures of who I was bringing in, also because a lot can happen in two weeks. So Romeu who I bought in is now injured - will he be back for GW19, will he even get picked given the way Southampton played yesterday? I'm sure McCarthy will be back, but again he must be a slight doubt. So maybe I now need to bail on my BB? I have corrected the structural issue I felt I had and I am happy with my side moving forward although if I don't BB, I will have some interesting benching decisions to make.

In the meantime, I am committed to FH18. What could possible go wrong?

[SirMattBugsby]

With a DGW, I've come to realise that I make the best decisions around it when I disgrace it, demean it and insult it.

"You're a sh*t GW, much better ones than you out there",
"Why should I not buy Saiss? He's a good player and you're a sh*t GW"
and finally
"Screw you and the sh*tty 4.5s spreading cancer in my team for 2 points."

Clears the mind

[blahblah]

With a DGW, I've come to realise that I make the best decisions around it when I disgrace it, demean it and insult it.

"You're a sh*t GW, much better ones than you out there",
"Why should I not buy Saiss? He's a good player and you're a sh*t GW"
and finally
"Screw you and the sh*tty 4.5s spreading cancer in my team for 2 points."

Clears the mind

[Aldershot Rejects]

With a DGW, I've come to realise that I make the best decisions around it when I disgrace it, demean it and insult it.

"You're a sh*t GW, much better ones than you out there",
"Why should I not buy Saiss? He's a good player and you're a sh*t GW"
and finally
"Screw you and the sh*tty 4.5s spreading cancer in my team for 2 points."

Clears the mind

OK. I'll try giving it a go.

[Ruth_NZ]

So, how's the FH thinking going? You going to go the aggressive route with no Spurs?

[Aldershot Rejects]

So, how's the FH thinking going? You going to go the aggressive route with no Spurs?

Darlow (A N other)
Dias Bailly Tierney (Mitchell Konsa)
De Bruyne Rashford Fernandes Grealish Foden
Kane Wilson (Davis)

Nowhere need final yet and I still have a bit of spare cash.
Sticking with Kane as I think it is too risky to go without either Son or Kane - Son might be preferable but I am not mad keen on the other forward options at the moment.
I've gone bit in midfield - the big choice here is whether to double up on City attackers or defenders. Foden is obviously a risk in terms of start time (I may wait to see if he plays in the FAC) but has a higher ceiling than the defenders - Cancello I had earlier in the season when he was out of the side for a couple of games so that has scarred me If I was picking a side for more than one week I'd probably go with Stones & Dias.

DCL for Foden is also quite possible, having had DCL for a while the regret-factor would be high were he to haul this week.

The goalkeeper situation needs more thought as well - a Newcastle defender feels like a good idea given the fixture but the three defenders I am starting with all feel like better options - hence Darlow. Need a substitute keeper in case Debravka comes back (I guess if I have spare cash I could put him on the bench).

Every time I plan for FH, I am reminded of how large the variance is picking a side for a particular week. It feels like tossing a coin 15 times and hoping for 11+ heads (Incidentally 11+ heads out of 15 has a 6% probability).

[Aldershot Rejects]

I could also do Foden - Son and Kane to DCL but would have to shave off a bit of cash elsewhere.

[SirMattBugsby]

When considering the FH, I was retaining the good BGW players I had in my team, and adding to them. In your case, that's Bruno, Dias, DCL, maybe even Grealish? I know it sounds stupid since it's a FH and a FH team should be different but like you, the regret would be high for me if one of them hauls.

I was then replacing blanking players with players with similar price points. In your team that would be Kane for Vardy, Wilson for Bamford, KdB for Salah, Saka for Soucek and so on. Maybe everyone does this already and I've just realised it but it made the assessment of the advantage of FH much easier.

[Ruth_NZ]

Every time I plan for FH, I am reminded of how large the variance is picking a side for a particular week. It feels like tossing a coin 15 times and hoping for 11+ heads. (Incidentally 11+ heads out of 15 has a 6% probability).

Yeah, so true, especially this week. Often the main variance is between those who FH and those who don't but this time there are so many viable options that there will likely be wide variance between different FH combinations too.

One of the things I see, looking on FFS especially, is that many managers can't escape their normal FPL mindset when crafting the FH. Essentially they still tend to look at the players they'd like to have for a period of weeks, whereas the FH is a strictly opportunistic exercise.

A couple of comments on yours... I'd take Sterling into consideration, he seems to be very important to Pep and at some stage he's going to hit a very big haul. I just brought KDB in but was this close really to taking Sterling instead. On a FH I'd certainly have both assuming Sterling gets a rest in the FAC. Another one is Martial, he happens to have a great record at Turf Moor (has never failed to score there from what I know) and OGS seems to think his fitness is where it should be now for the first time this season and is quite bullish about him. He's another I'd definitely include if he gets rested (or reduced minutes) in the FAC. In fact I'd rather have him than Rashford, because recent developments at United have pushed Rashford to the right where he doesn't look at all so comfortable.

Personally I'd go without any Spurs; Villa away just isn't a great fixture and Spurs aren't scoring loads of goals right now. Could quite easily be a 0-0 that game. I have Kane (not using the FH) and am quite OK with that, if Spurs score there's a fair chance he's involved. But I wouldn't keep him in a FH team.