ARs Thinking Space

[Aldershot Rejects]

That’s a fairly extreme case of getting caught on the wrong end of variance.

Yeah, as I said when preparing for FH - picking a side for one week just multiplies the variance - you hope that over 11 players it evens out a bit or you get lucky. DGWs are the same. Still that's the nature of the game.

To be honest - I'm most annoyed with myself - I intended to play Konsa instead of Bamford which in a way is why I didn't go with Stones - looking ahead Konsa & Coufal cover the D4 spot quite well.

Having decided to rollover on that basis, I then decided there was too much uncertainty about Villa at the moment - did Konsa get covid? will this week's game go ahead etc?, so Bamford seemed safer. At that point, I should have asked the question - do I prefer Bamford to Stones? If I'd have asked that question I would have bought Stones in. He would have only cost me 0.4m over Konsa which is probably worth it for the next few weeks.

In some ways, it is not the big haul that frustrates me (there is no way anyone could have predicted that - Stones is probably a 2-3 goal per season player at the moment) but the flawed thought process!

[Fuzzy]

We do tie ourselves in knots when playing the short and double gameweeks (and torment ourselves more than usual when it goes wrong).

Just need to move on now. It’s no consolation, but at least you have a carried transfer!

[Aldershot Rejects]

Indeed

Carrying over a transfer whenever possible seems like a wise strategy at the moment (which was the other thing in my mind when I decided to rollover )

[Ruth_NZ]

So, looking forward then...

Apart from the lack of City players in your team (which I think needs rectifying) you are in pretty good shape, no? The defence is very good as it stands. The midfield is pretty good, Grealish will be nice to have. The forwards are mainly good, Vardy has some top fixtures coming and DCL is one I have in mind to get myself soon. The GK pair is OK also, though I'm not sure how many CSs there are for Soton upcoming.

The weak-link positions I'd see to be McCarthy, Salah, Bamford. McCarthy & Bamford you'll have an idea about by the end of GW19 because the Arsenal/Soton FAC result will tell you whether Soton & Leeds will have a DGW23 or not. If Arsenal win then Soton/Leeds players will probably need keeping, otherwise they could go.

The main one right now is Salah for me. He hasn't scored or assisted in 4 games and Liverpool are protecting the weakness at the heart of their defence which is affecting their attacking play. Losing Henderson in midfield is quite impactful because he drives the speed of transition. It's true that Salah doesn't often go that long without scoring (4 games was his longest run last season and 6 games the season before) but you need more than the odd goal from him, you need hauls, especially captaincy hauls.

On top of that, Liverpool have hard fixtures upcoming: tot whu BHA MCI lei are 20-24. None of the three away games are against pushover teams and you wouldn't expect Liverpool to run riot in those games at the best of times. At Anfield, where Salah has tended to do most of his damage, one of the games is City, who are capable of outplaying Liverpool on current form and have the best defence in the PL. So that leaves one good, captainable fixture in 5. Is that enough?

Salah KDB/Sterling looks a self-evident move to me. City are in great form and also have the fixtures to do serious damage. I know I may have suggested this before (and you were considering it anyway I think?) but it still applies, irrespective of what Salah may or may not do on Thursday.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Yes, my pencilled in move for this week is Salah to KDB. Liverpool just don't look right, and I think I am finally being convinced by City. City are a very different beast this season but it does feel like they have finally become comfortable with the system they are playing. I'm not sure KDB is a long-term pick as I don't see City scoring as many goals as previously and I might jump on Son further down the line (although a lot can change in a few weeks).

Yes, Sterling is tempting as well, I'm just not sure I can stand the frustration of watching him play

Yes, you are right about the Saints GKs - what I do depends a bit on what BB opportunities appear over the next few GWs. I could, for instance, replace Forster and run with two playing keepers for a few weeks.

With respect to Bamford - I held off him so long and bought him in shortly before his form suffered. I'm half looking at Ings from GW23 (with or without a dgw).

At the moment, I am minded to bend my team out of shape in GW27-29 to take advantage of the doubles. I can then wildcard in 30 for the final push. At the moment, I see no reason to change 5-6 of my side in that timescale (baring injuries), so it does give me the possibility to do a bit of hopping on and off the other positions over the next few weeks.

[Ruth_NZ]

Yeah, when to 2WC will be an interesting decision, for me too. We need to see how the FAC unfolds and whether it is easy to have a decent team for 26 & 29 without too many hits in between. Don't you have the BB to fit in somewhere too?

[Aldershot Rejects]

Yeah, when to 2WC will be an interesting decision, for me too. We need to see how the FAC unfolds and whether it is easy to have a decent team for 26 & 29 without too many hits in between. Don't you have the BB to fit in somewhere too?

Yeah, if Saints v Leeds goes into GW23, I may well do it then - would cause minimal disruption to my team, cheap options available and both have a good fixture alongside their re-arranged game (Newcastle & Palace) - already have Romeu (if fit), Bamford and McCarthy - Meslier and a defender would sort it. Plus Ings for DCL (with Bamford - DLC the following week).

[Sutter Kane]

Yeah, if Saints v Leeds goes into GW23, I may well do it then - would cause minimal disruption to my team, cheap options available and both have a good fixture alongside their re-arranged game (Newcastle & Palace) - already have Romeu (if fit), Bamford and McCarthy - Meslier and a defender would sort it. Plus Ings for DCL (with Bamford - DLC the following week).

There's two or three FA Cup fixtures this weekend that stand out as important. My gut feeling is that it will be pretty easy to get out a strong xi in GW26 but will it compete with the quality personnel of a WC (with a BB or not), when you've also had an eye on prior double players in GW23/4? (see your post above!)

I wonder, looking at the fixtures, how accurate it would be to say you would be well set for GW26 with 3 Man C, 3 Spurs, Fernandes and a couple of Villa. I then think the other 2 spots are fairly easily fillable...

[Aldershot Rejects]

I wonder, looking at the fixtures, how accurate it would be to say you would be well set for GW26 with 3 Man C, 3 Spurs, Fernandes and a couple of Villa. I then think the other 2 spots are fairly easily fillable...

Yes, you are probably correct. I must confess I haven't got a great handle on what's likely to happen in GW26 - too many ifs, buts and maybes given my current brain-space. But yes, you are correct - I guess the ideal is to be able to rollover a transfer in GW26, giving 4 transfers to get into shape for BGW29.

[Sutter Kane]

Indeed. There is also the benefit, or lack of it, of a WC post GW29. I am completely unsure of how beneficial it will turn in the absence of game rearrangement info a few weeks later. I suppose it depends how GW29 looks.

I feel but I'm not sure, that I want S'ton to beat Arsenal this weekend. (disrespect to Shrewsbury ) Might make planning for GW26 easier.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Salah benched tonight ... Now struggling to break 80 points from 20 players - at what point do you admit that you are not actually enjoying playing anymore?

So maybe now is the time to take a break - I'll keep my team ticking over and see how it goes but at the moment I'm struggling to justify the time investment I put in.

[blahblah]

I've been like since the start if this season tbh. And now we have the double whammy of random matches being postponed along with random players missing ones that do take place to combine with more rotation than normal.....

[Bobby Fetta]

Salah benched tonight ... Now struggling to break 80 points from 20 players - at what point do you admit that you are not actually enjoying playing anymore?

So maybe now is the time to take a break - I'll keep my team ticking over and see how it goes but at the moment I'm struggling to justify the time investment I put in.

That is exactly how I was feeling on Saturday. If you're not enjoying it, take a step back. Your team probably won't suffer too much and may even do better! I've found many of my luxury transfers actually backfire. Contrasting that to my kids teams who put in about 5 minutes thought every couple of weeks and were keeping pace with me was very dispiriting.

As Blah says, this season with covid, luck is even more of a factor than normal. What can we do about that?

[blahblah]

We could shoot your kids for starters

[Aldershot Rejects]

Yeah my son is the same, although he is older. I've got a 13 year old in one of my mini+leagues who's hit 150 this week having bought in Stones and Antonio who he triple-captained.

[blahblah]

BobMem's wife banned him from here (and I assume FPL) due to his sulking after losing to Jnr

[Bobby Fetta]

We could shoot your kids for starters

Bit harsh! My less extreme solution has been to 'forget' to remind them about deadlines and not explain about DGWs and chips. Has worked a treat this week

[Hotpot]

We could shoot your kids for starters

Bit harsh! My less extreme solution has been to 'forget' to remind them about deadlines and not explain about DGWs and chips. Has worked a treat this week

That is brutal!

[blahblah]

We could shoot your kids for starters

Bit harsh! My less extreme solution has been to 'forget' to remind them about deadlines and not explain about DGWs and chips. Has worked a treat this week

That is brutal!

You can only do that so many times before Mum gets fed up with the tears.... (especially if you sulk when losing )

[Joccki_10]

AR mate, where have you gone? Hope all is well.

[Stevieste]

AR mate, where have you gone? Hope all is well.

I have his number, i will drop him a txt tomorrow, its a bit late to do it now

[Smurphy Paw]

AR mate, where have you gone? Hope all is well.

I have his number, i will drop him a txt tomorrow, its a bit late to do it now

[Joccki_10]

AR mate, where have you gone? Hope all is well.

I have his number, i will drop him a txt tomorrow, its a bit late to do it now

Cheers, Stevie, I’d appreciate that.

[Stevieste]

I spoke to Andy and all is well, he just having a little break, but be back on soon.

I let him know your guys were asking for him

[Aldershot Rejects]

Hi everyone,

Thanks for those who have asked if I am OK. I’m fine, I just needed to step away for a bit. FPL was taking too much of my headspace and the fact that my rank was seemingly on an inexorable slide I decided to let FPL take a back seat.

I did carry on managing my side, just spent a lot less time on it. Anyway, having slid to 1.3m after GW24, I’ve now managed to get back inside the top 1 million – small steps but positive ones.

Looking at Talkie Toaster’s wonderful H2H updates it struck me just how bad my captain choices have been this season. I knew I wasn’t doing great, but I don’t think I had appreciated how badly I was doing. Up to GW28, my captains have scored 151 pts at 5.4 ppg (before doubling). I would have been better off captaining Martinez every week and over 50 points better off captaining Fernandes. In fact, if I had captained Fernandes every week, I would be just inside the top 500k rather than the top 1m.

I should say at this point that I tend to be fairly conservative with my captaincy choices – this year I’ve not strayed too far from Fernandes, Kane, Salah and Vardy generally in attractive fixtures.
I’m undoubtedly guilty of focusing more on transfer planning than captaincy planning so I am going to try to spend more time on this facet of the game moving forward. Does anyone have any tips?

[blahblah]

I have some fag ends

[Ruth_NZ]

I’m undoubtedly guilty of focusing more on transfer planning than captaincy planning so I am going to try to spend more time on this facet of the game moving forward. Does anyone have any tips?

No but if you find out how to do it please let me know.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Another year, another season. After managing a season-high ranking after GW38 it's time to do battle with myself again

It seems to be that time in pre-season when I start tinkering with my side which never does any good, although there may be some excuse as my draft team lost Robbo and possibly Buendia at the weekend.
These thoughts are as much for my own benefit as anyone else although as usual I welcome observations.

I'm hoping this year to save my WC to at least GW7 and hopefully belong so I have tried to balance ease of fixtures at the start with a longer-term perspective.

Goalkeepers: ]Meslier & Forster.
Both have been in my side since my first draft. Not much to say really. I guess that Martinez will probably outscore Meslier in GW1-3 but over the longer-term, I don't think there will be much to choose between them. Sanchez is a good shout but I prefer the BHA defenders.

Defence: TAA, Shaw, Dunk, Veltman, Tsimikas
If everyone was going into the season with a full pre-season my defence would be TAA, Chilwell, Stones, Shaw & Dunk and I would be going 5 at the back.
TAA has also been in every draft ... Man Utd defence is looking much stronger and I do like Shaw, plus his ownership is ridiculous ... Dunk has also been in every draft - from memory he was the top goalscoring defender last season and those fixtures are just too tempting. And because pretty much everyone has a Brighton defender, you really need a second defender to benefit from clean sheets etc. Come in Mr Veltman! ... It's not completely clear that Tsimikas starts in Robbo's absence, but with those fixtures I am happy to take the risk. The biggest danger is that he doesn't play GW1 and immediately starts shedding owners with the consequent threat to his price.

Midfield: Salah Fernandes Son Dallas Gilmour I'm happy to go with the template for Salah and Fernandes although one of them will probably be downgraded some time around GW 4 to allow Lukaku/Kane to come in. I've been trying to find a way to fit Son in for the last couple of weeks and downgrading Robbo was really the only option. Robbo's injury has opened up the door. Based on his performances from last year, I suspect Son is the one £10m+ player who has been noticeably underpriced. He's aslo a very decent captain shout for GW3 ... Dallas is OK at £5.5m although I would much prefer Harrison or Raphinha if I had the budget. I'll probably bench him first week and play 5 at the back. Gilmour is bench fodder. Brownhill and Bissouma were the other optins.

Forward: Wilson Ings Obafemi
This is probably the position I have struggled with the most - Antonio, Watkins and Toney have all been in my teams and I would have been happy to start with all three of them. Up until recently I had Wilson, Ings & Antonio although it is hard to imagine all three being fit for GW2.
Wilson doesn't seem to be in many drafts but he has great fixtures and he is a real talisman. Ings apparently looked very good in the friendly yesterday and has great fixtures. Either may yet become Toney which will free up money to upgrade Dallas to another Leeds midfielder.

Time to let this team bed down for a couple of days.

[SirMattBugsby]

Finally.. someone who shares my Wilson love! Is having 3 10+ worth it? Or a wait-and-see approach, after which you might drop one of them?

[SG_8]

Looks like a nice team. Jealous of Son owners

Thoughts on ESR instead of Dallas?