SirMattBugsby RMT: Believe!

[SirMattBugsby]

Defence did well for me last time. Cleansheets from VvD and Sanchez and finally! A goal from Dunk on the right side. Got his points from second sub though so slightly lucky.

GW 30

In a dilemma this week. VvD plays Man United away which could or could not be a CS. Spurs play Bournemouth away after that disappointing CL result. Swansea and Brighton play away while Ogbonna is not certain.

Right now I'm on (in order):

Foster (Elliott)
Sanchez Ogbonna VvD (Naughton Dunk)

I could get Schindler or Lascelles in but think I might be wasting a FT when all of them are playing, a CS could come from anywhere and I have Sterling to deal with. Gameweeks like these are when I usually get to bank my transfer (and get jammy Dunk points )

Any suggestions will be welcome.

Finally decided to start Naughton ahead of VvD and make no transfers in defence, instead selling Sterling for David Silva. One a good decision, second not so much, esp if Sterling starts.

Not getting Lascelles or Schindler was wrong on three counts:

1) Missing the CS this week.

2) Losing a chance to strengthen my defence for GW 31, or 32 in case of Lascelles.

3) Played Quaner instead. I really thought he could get me an attacking return

The one big positive from this is that I now know which DEF has to go: Ogbonna. My plan was to keep him till DGW 34 but no longer. Sacked in the morning.. (or maybe one more game since it's against Southampton)

Overall, my backline will be the reason I WC in GW 32 or 33. Going cheap has cost me not only CS points, but attacking returns and team value as well. This season has been a learning curve in that respect.





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[SirMattBugsby]

GW 32: WC activated! Not for DGWs or price rises, but to get my defence firing.

GK: de Gea is almost a done deal. I love the guy anyway so I want to fully celebrate every save. Hope he's there next season as well!

The choice of 2nd GK is tricky. Fabianski is obvious for DGW purposes and to start GW 33 (DdG has Manchester Derby). But he's not much use otherwise and I could do with saving some cash.

Hennessey is who I'm looking at.

PREMIUM DEF (6.5+): Alonso, end of. He'll be my sole Chelsea player to start with, Willian next in line. I've been without a premium defender throughout the season and it hasn't worked. No more.

SUPPORTING CAST(5-5.5): The difficult part. I'm on Monreal and Mee for now but nothing sure. Burnley, Liverpool, Spurs and Man United under consideration. Cresswell, Lascelles or van Aanholt anyone?

ENABLERS (4.5): Keeping Dunk and Naughton from old team. However, if I'm not satisfied with the 5-5.5 range, I'll add another enabler. Like the look of Huddersfield and Watford, even though they are SGW teams. Mariappa and Dummett both 4.2

TENTATIVE BACKLINE:

DdG, Hennessey
Alonso, Monreal, Mee, Dunk, Naughton

Value: 36.8




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[SirMattBugsby]

Finally went with:

DdG Fabianski
Alonso (Vertonghen Morgan) Lowton Dummett

The investment paid off and I got 2 CSs. Watching Alonso was way more enjoyable and backline looks good for next week as well. Satisfied

Whether Fabianski and Dummett can do the job in 34 BB if needed is another matter. Newcastle and Swansea might be safe before 37 so I might pull the trigger.

My only worry now is whether I might have invested in defence at the wrong time, when managers are looking to get Kane+Lukaku. Let's see..

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[SirMattBugsby]

2018/19!!

Will be looking to apply lessons learnt from previous season:

1) Invest in defence
2) Form over fixtures
3) Keep ownership in mind

Have already done so by keeping Salah as a defensive strategy and including Aubameyang despite difficult first two fixtures. Finding premium DEFs, however, is proving difficult because of uncertainty around Manchester clubs and Chelsea. Let's see..

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[Gambit]

2018/19!!

Will be looking to apply lessons learnt from previous season:

1) Invest in defence
2) Form over fixtures
3) Keep ownership in mind

Have already done so by keeping Salah as a defensive strategy and including Aubameyang despite difficult first two fixtures. Finding premium DEFs, however, is proving difficult because of uncertainty around Manchester clubs and Chelsea. Let's see..

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Agreed on the premium defenders, which is annoying as I want them as mostly set and forget, or at least keep for a good while, don't want to use transfers switching between them.

Gutted that Mendy hasn't featured yet, Otamendi hasn't played either, and long term I think Pep wants Stones and Laporte? No idea who United will play, can only hope they sign Maguire or Alderweireld as they would be nailed on to play. I did have Robertson and VVD, but have had to lose one for Mane.

The only two I'm set on at the moment are PVA and Robertson/VVD, just have to hope the next 10 days or so clear a few things up, certainly want a City defender, and seeing the 1st choice Chelsea back four? would be nice.

[SirMattBugsby]

I feel the first few weeks are a different game. Remember getting by with a cheap backline early last season. It's after 6-7 weeks that Otamendi etc got going.

This might be even more relevant this season after the World Cup. So I'm not worrying about it for now, but have accepted that I'll probably need to wild-card early.

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[Aldershot Rejects]

Your memory is playing up

After 5 games last year - Valencia (36), Davies (32), Alonso (30), Otamendi (28), Azpilicueta (25) all had decent points. Most of these started fast and slowed down over the last third of the season.

[Gambit]

so who will be the fast starting premium defenders this season?

[SirMattBugsby]

Hmm.. maybe it's a relative thing? I had Naughton, Ward, Huddersfield defender etc. who were decent and allowing me to have a heavy front three. Davies was my premium defender around GW 5.

Thereafter, these guys fizzled out and the teams with Otamendi, Alonso started hurting me. I feel this kinda happens every season: some minnows, esp one of the promoted teams, start well but once the bigger teams get in the groove, it's time to back them, including at the back.

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[SirMattBugsby]

so who will be the fast starting premium defenders this season?

Alonso, Bailly, Laporte are the ones I'm considering. Arsenal might be better defensively under Emery in which case, Bellerin.

Having said that, Robertson is the only premium DEF I have for now.

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[SirMattBugsby]

Just looked at Chelsea and if they come good, there'll be great options in every position:

1) AR mentioned Moses, who might play OOP. There are also good CBs like David Luiz, Cahill, Christensen.. all 5.5 .

2) Pedro, Fabregas could be the ideal M4. Pedro especially might play in the Callejon role (or should I say, the original Pedro role at Barca) and get goals.

3) Nobody burned me like Morata did last season, but it would be wonderful if he gets going. He'll probably play well but not sure if it will translate to FPL points.

Overall, I expect Chelsea to have their customary good-season-after-bad-season and possess some life-savers in FPL.

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[SirMattBugsby]

I've been stuck with the same team for 1 week and haven't been able to make a change despite not being fully satisfied.

Pickford (Gomes)
Robertson Mee Bertrand (Wan-Bissaka Bennett)
Salah Mane Sane Neves Sessegnon
Auba King (Kamara)

My backline is looking weak again. Thinking of getting DdG with the 1.0 m ITB.

Not sure if Sane is good for his price. Bernardo seems a risk worth taking if it means getting another top 6 player in defence. Azpilicueta? Getting him and de Gea is some upgrade!

Should probably have two Man City players but it'd probably mean Auba + Aguero upfront. Not sure if that's feasible with Salah.

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[skip]

Hey SMB
no real weak links there. I stayed away from the City midfield myself due to it being unsettled for the first couple of games. Eventually it will be KdB, Sterling then 2 from Mahrez/BSilva/DSilva/Mane I think. This makes Sane a very temporary pick for you so might be better with the cheaper BSilva or a completely different option.

Mee & Bertrand are great in the 5.0 bracket.

Good luck!

[SirMattBugsby]

Hey SMB
no real weak links there. I stayed away from the City midfield myself due to it being unsettled for the first couple of games. Eventually it will be KdB, Sterling then 2 from Mahrez/BSilva/DSilva/Mane I think. This makes Sane a very temporary pick for you so might be better with the cheaper BSilva or a completely different option.

Mee & Bertrand are great in the 5.0 bracket.

Good luck!

Thanks skip! Yeah, it's just a case of balance and choice now. Hope I don't buy/ sell the wrong player..

Good luck to you too!

[SirMattBugsby]

I've been stuck with the same team for 1 week and haven't been able to make a change despite not being fully satisfied.

Pickford (Gomes)
Robertson Mee Bertrand (Wan-Bissaka Bennett)
Salah Mane Sane Neves Sessegnon
Auba King (Kamara)

My backline is looking weak again. Thinking of getting DdG with the 1.0 m ITB.

Not sure if Sane is good for his price. Bernardo seems a risk worth taking if it means getting another top 6 player in defence. Azpilicueta? Getting him and de Gea is some upgrade!

Should probably have two Man City players but it'd probably mean Auba + Aguero upfront. Not sure if that's feasible with Salah.

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Finally went with DdG, Azpi and B. Silva over Sane. 80 points but.. carelessly played Mee Bertrand over Neves. Not much harm done in the end but I was very annoyed yesterday.

I'm now thinking of some aggressive moves. Auba and Arsenal didn't impress me, although that is difficult against Man City. Mendy has to come in. Spurs looked better than I expected and Shaw is about to rise in price.

I could go with as many as 4 transfers, which would be:

Azpi->Mendy
DdG->5.0
Bertrand->Shaw
Auba->Kane

Will probably get Mendy in now and make further decisions later.

PS: It's difficult to keep a 6m GK

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[baganboy]

Don't.
You probably really need to do only 1 or 2 of those 4 moves this week itself, don't you? So figure out which one(s) it will be, and postpone the others for next week.

[SirMattBugsby]

Don't.
You probably really need to do only 1 or 2 of those 4 moves this week itself, don't you? So figure out which one(s) it will be, and postpone the others for next week.

Thanks BB. Yes, it was last night's rush. It did result in me selling Azpi->Mendy

I'll stick with de Gea for the security he provides. Plus he's the only Man United player I genuinely feel like having.

Spurs is the only issue remaining. I'm hoping they don't batter Fulham.

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[SirMattBugsby]

fpl.PNG

Choosing the eleven for GW 2 has brought out the weak link in my team: Sessegnon. He was my flavor of the month signing (alongwith Neves, mind) but when your 5 m DEF (Bertrand) seems a better option to start, it probably means the 6.5 MID needs to go.

This co-incides with the need to get a Spurs player. Having already used up my FT, I will suffer a double hit to get Kane or Alli. Worth it? Doesn't look like it, especially since it involves removing Aubameyang, whom I selected in the first place as a long-term pick. However, looking at Arsenal, I'm not sure if they'll be the same attacking force even when they play well. So Auba's place is under review. I do not want another Morata scenario.

An interesting character in this plot might be the evergreen Jamie Vardy. Looked sharp when he came on and Leicester have a decent run of fixtures coming up.

In short, these are the transfer options I'm looking at:


Auba, Sess Vardy, Alli
Auba, Sess Kane, 5.5


Thoughts? I'd especially like to hear from fellow Aubameyang owners.

[No Way Jose]

Keep auba. He scored a lovely finish against city but was just offside and you always wanted him for 3 onwards. Stick to your plan

Spurs have united away next fixture too so Kane auba are likely to end up scoring similarly the next 2 GWs

If you’re already over sess then trade him to richarlison

[SirMattBugsby]

Liverpool's trio scored more than half my points last GW, which is why I'm worried about this week (and will be so every time there's a tough game for them (yes, that's what FPL can do to a Man United fan)). My other premium option, Aubameyang, also has a tough game, which means I don't have a standout captaincy option as well. A good captain is what you need in a tough gameweek.

In such a situation, I'm warming to Aguero a bit. There's always the rotation risk, but he started most home games last season. City have 4 home games in the next 6.

There's also the valid argument that Jesus is too good not to get more game time this season. Having said that, if the negligible sample size of 1 game this season is seen, Pep did exactly what he had done last season. He usually takes off Aguero against top 6 opposition while preserving a lead. It's what he did last season, specifically against Arsenal as well.

So my confident guess is, Sergio will play close to 90 minutes at home against Huddersfield, then not play away to Wolves.

[SirMattBugsby]

One thing I had not realized last year was the enjoyment of having players in my team playing big games.

Normally, FPL sense dictates that the probability of returns is less against tough opposition, which is why I sold David Silva and Rashford before the Manchester derby, and Hazard before the Chelsea-Arsenal game. Not only did these turn out to be mistakes, they also spoiled my enjoyment of quality games.

The reason I'm reminded of this right now is because I have Aubameyang (che) this GW. I could take a hit to get Aguero and captain him but I won't. It's sensible: Aubameyang is a class player, had a good pre-season and has a good run of fixtures coming up. The reason I chose him in GW 1 in the first place was due to:

1) Surety of starts
2) Emphasis on form over fixtures
3) Saving a FT in the process (most managers plan to switch Aguero to Auba after GW 2)

And if it doesn't work out in the end, I will have had the enjoyment of FPL involvement in the match of the weekend

[SirMattBugsby]

I like to guess events and results before games so here goes:

Cardiff-Newcastle: Low-scoring, 1-0 or 1-1.

Everton-Southampton: This is the game where my team is going against the grain. Most managers, with Richarlison and Pickford, want an Everton win. It is the likelier result, I admit, but I hope Bertrand can get me a CS or attacking return. 1-1

Leicester-Wolves: This fixture tempted me (and still is) to get Vardy for Aubameyang or Maddison for Sessegnon. Will be an open game with a Leicester win. 2-1

Spurs-Fulham: I've prayed to the FPL gods to spare me this time and I promise I will get a Spurs player soon. Fingers crossed, 2-0.

West Ham-Bournemouth: Attack attack attack! Pellegrini agrees with my sentiment and I hope Bournemouth (specifically, Josh King) do their bit. Also, Daniels owners deserve negative points. 2-2

Chelsea-Arsenal: Hmm.. Both lost 2-0 to Man City recently, so in a very unscientific way, I'm judging them to be at roughly equal level. Arsenal and Cech's newfound attempts to play out from the back will be tested again, this time by Sarri's intense pressing. I do feel, though, that Arsenal will get some chances on the break. 2-1

Burnley-Watford: 0-0, everybody's happy (except Pereyra owners, they can keep their price rise).

Man City-Huddersfield: Okay Sergio, let's call it a truce at 1 +/- 1 goal, okay? 3-0

Brighton-Man United: This is the kind of game I have David for. Brighton, you are hereby allowed to throw the kitchen sink at us. And if you do score, well, everybody loses a CS, no? Just keep a lid on Shaw (what have I turned into?). 0-2

Crystal Palace-Liverpool: This is actually a significant game for me in terms of FPL planning. Thanks to his price and Sterling's emergence, I'm questioning Salah's place in the team.

2 of Liverpool's next 3 games are away,and after that they play Spurs, Chelsea and Man City in the next 4. Having 3 of their players in these GWs can drag the team down, as it might this week as well. This makes Robertson vulnerable, atleast CS-wise. 1-2

[SirMattBugsby]

Been a long time. I've already played my WC and, thanks to missing Aguero's GW 2 haul, sit at 500K. Reasonably happy with my current team though.

Like most others, I'm thinking what to do with 'Pool assets. Wanting to gain rank means I will lose one of three (famous last words?). Robertson is the most vulnerable, but the guy I want is David Silva so looks like I'll sell Mane.

What I do after GW 6 is more important. Two top six teams that don't play Pool from GW 5-8 are Man United and Arsenal. Lukaku and Lacazette are the chief targets. I might even sell Aguero, although that will happen only after GW 7, if at all.

Apart from that, Leicester, Bournemouth and Everton have a good run of fixtures. They will provide budget options for a mini-WC, so it might be wise to save a FT and gain more information before acting. And who knows, maybe the best solution might be *not* to sell our Liverpool assets?

One thing is for sure: the next 4 GWs provide ample opportunity to gain/regain lost ground.

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[SirMattBugsby]

Can anyone advise me on the risk of TC right after the International break? Sometimes teams like Man City can have an off day because of high-profile players returning from international duty.

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[Smurphy Paw]

Can anyone advise me on the risk of TC right after the International break? Sometimes teams like Man City can have an off day because of high-profile players returning from international duty.

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Aguero and Silva are both rested, neither having been involved over the international break. Does that help at all?

[SirMattBugsby]

Can anyone advise me on the risk of TC right after the International break? Sometimes teams like Man City can have an off day because of high-profile players returning from international duty.

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Aguero and Silva are both rested, neither having been involved over the international break. Does that help at all?

Thanks SP. Knew about Kun and Silva, was thinking how the team would do as a whole. Didn't TC, fortunately.



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[SirMattBugsby]

In a bit of a dilemma. With Mendy and Pedro injured, and Neves and Bennett my first two subs, I feel the need to make 2 transfers (-4).

DEF: Trippier, Chilwell
MID: Fraser, Maddison

Fraser/Maddison has already been discussed on FISO, particularly by Ruth. Fraser definitely has the upper hand, but the role and fixtures of Maddison are tempting me.

Chilwell vs Trippier is very difficult. On the one hand, I'm bringing in another rotation risk in Trippier. Chilwell, on the other hand, plays for a defensively unpredictable Leicester side. RNZ did mention their decent defensive stats but the performance against Bournemouth was pretty bad.

Presently on Trippier and Maddison. Thoughts and opinions welcome.

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[baganboy]

Personal opinions:

DEF: Trippier, Chilwell
Just at this moment, my conservative self suggests pick Chilwell over Trippier. I would let TOT get into any sort of form first before picking their players - and not try to game the system. And one can not get too wrong with LEI.

MID: Fraser, Maddison
Again, my conservative self suggests let Maddison do something concrete rather than get non-assist assists and score penalties not meant for him (Vardy is the designated LEI penalty taker). So Fraser here again.


All this is without any detailed analysis of whether 2 transfers are worth it or otherwise. (I would not have taken the hit - but I don't think that was your question)

[wahine]

if you are going to take a hit shouldn't it be for a player that could get more than just a clean sheet? youré not just chasing 2 points are you, and secondly its someone that is value and that you will want in your team for the next few gameweeks.

[SirMattBugsby]

Personal opinions:

DEF: Trippier, Chilwell
Just at this moment, my conservative self suggests pick Chilwell over Trippier. I would let TOT get into any sort of form first before picking their players - and not try to game the system. And one can not get too wrong with LEI.

MID: Fraser, Maddison
Again, my conservative self suggests let Maddison do something concrete rather than get non-assist assists and score penalties not meant for him (Vardy is the designated LEI penalty taker). So Fraser here again.


All this is without any detailed analysis of whether 2 transfers are worth it or otherwise. (I would not have taken the hit - but I don't think that was your question)

Are Leicester dependable enough in defence to "not go too wrong" with them? I'm not sure. Trippier himself has looked good, so it's just a question of whether Spurs will tighten up and whether Trippier is just a case of rotation risk replacing rotation risk.

Regarding Maddison, I feel I'll get, on average, one attacking return per week. I find his situation in FPL similar to Groß last season.

Of course, what I have are mostly feelings while your advice is quite sensible (including the part questioning the hit). I'll consider it, especially for the second transfer.

if you are going to take a hit shouldn't it be for a player that could get more than just a clean sheet? youré not just chasing 2 points are you, and secondly its someone that is value and that you will want in your team for the next few gameweeks.

I may be mistaken, but the players I mentioned do fulfill these conditions. Chilwell and Trippier have attacking potential while Maddison attracts bonus points. Leicester, Spurs and Bournemouth have a good run of fixtures, especially Leicester. So what I'm considering are decent FPL assets for atleast the medium term.

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