SirMattBugsby RMT: Believe!

[SirMattBugsby]

GW 2 Review and Observations

As predicted, fell in the 40-50 range, although returns from my Bournemouth duo and Moura (bless him) helped me reach there. Then again, Salah didn't return so..

1) The usual Arsenal: decent in attack, vulnerable in defence. Burnley pressed them high(!) and made them suffer.
2) Newcastle, Palace and Watford the teams to target, although Watford might actually wake up.
3) Everton the only team to keep 2 CSs so far, but labored in attack. They really should have got a right winger and played Richarlison upfront.
4) Man United: My Red Devils are making me consider a WC, especially with the relatively kind fixture run and two good FPL choices. Wan-Bissaka's style suits the BPS, while Martial is playing as a striker.

However, United haven't been totally assured at the back, and Martial's general play as a number nine hasn't been good tbh. If this was Lukaku, he'd be ridiculed for that first touch. I still feel Martial's best position is on the left wing, perhaps as an FPL option too.

5) Brighton look good in attack. Once the first-choice front three is clear, they could be good enablers. Lanzini was the stand-out West Ham player against them.
6) Pukki is PL level alright. Then again, Finisher1 told us that. Credit where it's due.

GW 3 Preview

Liverpool's high defensive line is not the best way to deal with Aubs and co, which adds to the Adrian situation. For Robbo and TAA, this is a big chance to prove their attacking credentials. Prediction: 3-1

Contrary to popular opinion, I don't think Bournemouth-Man City will be an annihilation: it could actually be lower scoring than Pool-Arse ( ). Pep has previously complained about (bou) being a difficult fixture, meaning they park the bus. Prediction: 2-0

Not having Kane is scary. I did consider getting him in, but that would have meant having a 2nd 4.5 mid or a 2nd 4.0 def. Either that or a WC (which I am still contemplating). Newcastle are definitely in a bad place, but I don't think they are as bad defensively when they are the clear underdogs. Spurs might find them difficult to break down but an early goal could open the floodgates. Prediction: 2-0

Man United-Palace should be another 2-0 win, with Wan-Bissaka the chief points-scorer.

I've already made my 2 FTs, Barkley->McGinn and Wilson->Pukki, leaving enough cash to upgrade Moura->KdB either this week for a hit or next week for 0.1 more. At present, I'm leaning towards keeping Moura.

It does seem like 'Pool assets are up against cheaper Man United (Robbo vs AWB), Man City (Salah vs KdB) and Spurs (Salah(c) vs Kane(c)) assets.

Ryan
Robbo TAA Walker Coleman
Salah(c) Sterling Moura McGinn
Pukki King

Button Den Kelly Wickham
2.2 ITB

Points prediction: 50-60

[SirMattBugsby]

Here's an exercise. In terms of PPG (not ppm), can the following players match those one tier above them over the next 4 GWs:

1) Can Kane (NEW, ars, CRY, lei) match Salah (ARS, bur, NEW, che)?

2) Similarly, KdB (bou, BHA, nor, WAT) match Kane?

3) Martial (CRY, sou, LEI, whu) match KdB?

4) AWB match Robbo?

[blahblah]

All 4 have a good chance, with Sterling (assuming he starts all 4) being higher. I'm hoping Shaw > WB too.

[SirMattBugsby]

All 4 have a good chance, with Sterling (assuming he starts all 4) being higher. I'm hoping Shaw > WB too.

Are you saying.. Yes to all?

[blahblah]

4 is unlikely, but more than 1, yeah I'd say so.

[SirMattBugsby]

4 is unlikely, but more than 1, yeah I'd say so.

Okay, stay with me because I might be seeing things

If we assume (assume being the key word) that Kane matches Salah and KdB matches Kane, then a pair of any two will fetch the same points? So I go with the cheapest pair (KdB plus Kane) and use the 1-1.5 earned (essentially from downgrading Salah to Kane) to upgrade my M3?

In my case, this turns out:

Salah + King
vs
Kane + Martial

[blahblah]

I'd go with Kane and your new CF from those two.

3 of those 4 could be tricky for Lpool, admittedly I didn't watch the Duper Cup; while Kane has 3 straightforward ones. I'm not big on Leicester tbh and with reasonable delivery they will concede from corners as they look really short.

That gives your lot a GOOD chance of 12 points?

Liverpool seem "wrong" atm, and I got slated here for saying they needed to buy in the summer. They did and they didn't.....

[SirMattBugsby]

It does, yes.

This is also being achieved without disturbing Robbo and TAA. Not sure if that's good or bad (know your answer ).

I suppose that's another battle: Robbo + McGinn (M4) vs 5.5 DEF + 7.5 MID (or some such combination)..

[blahblah]

I WC"ed out of the Lpool3 and got Salah in because it seemed so wrong, and as "insurance" against his Ownership.

It also buys me a bit of time to decide whether to have cash up top or Salah to go with Sterling. Either way I expect a couple of Lpool Defs to return when Alisson returns, and maybe 3 if the cash is up top.

Maybe Lpool blow the league (ie 6+ points behind your nosey neighbours) by the end of Sept and win the 3 Cups?

[SirMattBugsby]

I got Salah for insurance too. Remember questioning his place during my HOHO theory and ownership was the reason I stated then. Well, it's going down now.

Of course, we're assuming all the Kane over Salah thing, but the Martial thing is what has lit up my eyes. Yup, I can ditch one of those for one of mine

Really though, Pool will annihilate Arse

[blahblah]

You talked me out of my MU3

[SirMattBugsby]

Here's an exercise. In terms of PPG (not ppm), can the following players match those one tier above them over the next 4 GWs:

1) Can Kane (NEW, ars, CRY, lei) match Salah (ARS, bur, NEW, che)? Yes

2) Similarly, KdB (bou, BHA, nor, WAT) match Kane? Yes

3) Martial (CRY, sou, LEI, whu) match KdB? No

4) AWB match Robbo? No

It was meant to be a harmless exercise, which ended up in me WCing Completely changed my attacking six with the exception of Sterling.

The "decision" to WC was enforced by two factors:

1) Kane over Salah: I had questioned Salah's place while discussing the HOHO theory of premiums but the risk of leaving out Mo, especially with those first two fixtures, seemed too big. He won't be as heavily captained now for the next 8 GWs (well, hopefully), while Kane has 4-5 captainable fixtures in the next 7. The cash saved allows me to have Martial along with a solid back 4.

2) Early transfers: I could have made the above change without a WC, especially since I had 2 FTs. Truth is, I used up those 2 transfers in the less important but urgent matter of price changes (avoiding Barkley drop, catching Pukki rise). Feels pretty bad, I could have got Kane, KdB and Martial for a -4. I've always felt that 'building team value' is nothing more than a secondary objective and usually takes care of itself if we get the right players.

There's also a faint voice in my head saying I've made a mistake somewhere. Hopefully that mistake is the one of those I mentioned above (not going with Kane over Salah from the start, making early FTs for TV) and not the much bigger one of discounting Salah too early and using the WC over it

Anyway, this is the new team:

Pope Woodman
Robbo TAA Walker AWB Kelly
Sterling KdB Martial McGinn Den
Kane Pukki Wickham

0.5 ITB

Defence is essentially the same, although there are 3 choices for 2 spots: Robbo, Digne and AWB.

At present, it looks like Digne can match Robbo over the next 4 GWs, with AWB/Shaw a cut below both. However, after watching Everton and looking at their xGA, I do think they've been lucky to keep 2 CSs. Their fixtures were slightly favorable too, Palace and Watford. So I'm inclined to go with Robbo and AWB, and am hoping the Everton CS gets busted tonight by a McGinn goal

[SirMattBugsby]

Can't help but feel a bit stupid for losing Salah, getting Kane and using the WC over it. I read/heard somewhere that Kane is the potential successor to Hazard as the ultimate FPL troll. Bang on..

Important to remember the long-term plan here, the fact that the damage to rank was not that bad and that a lot of managers are still considering losing Salah on the WC. The rationale is still there: Salah won't be highly captained, while Kane/Aubs/Aguero have a good run. There are, however, two factors to consider:

1) Will Salah be a good enough asset even without captaincy? He's more likely to be so over Kane and Aguero. Aubs might be more steady in his returns once Arsenal's good run starts.
2) How will Liverpool play against the top sides this season? Will it be the gung-ho 17/18 version, or the more sedate but more dominant 18/19 one? I suspect they'll initially try to be the latter but end up being the former. Will be clearer once Allison returns.

Man United are another unreliable bunch. I could have used some returns from them with Harry blanking. The inconsistency of these three (Kane + Man United duo) is what is making me reconsider Salah. The potential of the trio might be higher, but there will be more weeks like this. In those weeks, my returns will mainly be from Man City assets, whom everyone has anyway. Salah + 11.5 vs these three? The emergence of Barnes and Haller is making it tough for 'Arry and co.

Holding Kane for the time being. Martial's injury comes at a bad time, since it's his spot that is in question and the first sub (Den) is involved in Europa. Will try my best to hold the FT..

[SirMattBugsby]

Poll added regarding Kane, Salah and Man United assets. Votes (and thoughts) welcome and appreciated

[Smurphy Paw]

5. Something else
But of those, I too fell for the Kane trap and would pick Salah over him in a straight fight

[Ironfist]

Poll added regarding Kane, Salah and Man United assets. Votes (and thoughts) welcome and appreciated

Unite assets are over rated. Even Martial.
Salah is less reliable than last season but a good investment nevertheless. ... ... better than Kane.

[SirMattBugsby]

After mulling and tearing my hair out over Salah+Barnes vs Kane+8m mid, I (presently) plan to hold my nerve and see through the GW 3-GW 6 window for Kane.

It's not like I've suddenly developed faith in Kane: he's still on trial and will be so for the next 2 GWs when the final judgment is made. However, 2 GWs seems too short a period to pass judgment; this period was unstable for Spurs. With Eriksen speculation over and Alli and Son back, Kane might be among points again. I wouldn't have been captaining Salah these 2 GWs anyway (although majority in the GW 5 captaincy thread are ), so feels okay at the moment.

Another factor encouraging me is the return of Martial and Richarlison. Richarlison was getting chances right from GW 1. He's now converting them. I think he's a confidence player and with (bou), (SHU) next, seems the perfect stopgap for my 2 GW experiment. If it goes well, I keep him, otherwise that spot is Salah's come GW 7.

Learning something about team management in the process. I have 1.9 ITB as a consequence of Salah->Kane and want to use it (because, what was the point otherwise?) However, I also don't want to spread it around in case I want Salah back. So I'm identifying the midfield spot where I'll invest all this cash, so that if I get Salah, the money would have gone into getting him back.

My choice in this midfield spot should:

a) Provide me the best option to counter Salah, and
b) Be better than the previous choice in that spot for atleast 2 GWs.

I have two choices: Mount and McGinn. Was considering McGinn at first, but I can only stretch to 7.5 . McGinn also has (WHU), while Mount has (wol), (LIV). Add in possible CL rotation, and it would have to be Mount who makes way. Am I doing this wrong?

Should have just kept Salah

[Smurphy Paw]

So it’d be Mount to Richarlison for two weeks? Or is that a second transfer?

[SirMattBugsby]

So it’d be Mount to Richarlison for two weeks? Or is that a second transfer?

Yes, that'll be it for GW 5 if I do finally decide to keep Kane. It is risky since Salah will be heavily captained, so I'll think about it. What I like is that it's a single move, so no hit which is an instant advantage over getting Salah back.

What do you think? Don't hold back, lay it on me

[Smurphy Paw]

So it’d be Mount to Richarlison for two weeks? Or is that a second transfer?

Yes, that'll be it for GW 5 if I do finally decide to keep Kane. It is risky since Salah will be heavily captained, so I'll think about it. What I like is that it's a single move, so no hit which is an instant advantage over getting Salah back.

What do you think? Don't hold back, lay it on me

I currently have the band on Sterling and am not convinced that Salah will be four points (the hit) better off than Richarlison this one game week. I hope he is though, of the pair I have Mo!

[SirMattBugsby]

A lot depends on Sterling tbh. If he features heavily in the IB and Jesus is declared fit, a lot of managers might shift captaincy from Sterling to Salah. I'll be hoping both don't happen by this time next week.

Itching to (TC) Sterling in this btw. Hope this GW doesn't lead to me deleting my team..

[SirMattBugsby]

Been exactly a month since I last posted, partly due to work and partly by intention. Regular discussion can sometimes be a hindrance to decision-making, which is what I felt after a subpar GW 5. That's my excuse anyway

The structure and some key personnel have changed since then. From a back-heavy 4-4-2, I've moved to 3-4-3, although Abraham continues to elude me. Caught some Kane returns and the shift to him from Salah wasn't as bad as initially feared (I firmly believe he'd have hauled against Saints with 11 men). However, come GW 8, I've sold him for Aubameyang for a hit. It's a hit that I think should pay off.

Aside from Kane, Robertson, Digne and Mount are the first-teamers I've sold in the last 3 weeks, for Lundstram, Aurier and Son respectively. The latter 2 transfers are questionable tbh, but Son for me is a captaincy choice. As for Aurier, well.. that D3 spot is turning out to be a headache. I'll simply play Lundstram and not waste my transfers till I find a long-term replacement. Don't trust Chelsea defence enough to get Tomori.

Team for GW 8:
Pope
TAA Walker Lundstram
Sterling Son McGinn Dend
Auba(c) Pukki King

Woodman Kelly KdB Aurier
0.0 ITB

I could (and maybe should) have gone with Kelly over Dend but felt the latter can get a goal against City from a corner. Let's see.. 19 (-4) from 6 players so far.

Going ahead, it's Pukki, Aurier and Son whose place is in question. Maddison and Abraham/Wilson are prospective targets with good home fixtures next.

PS: Didn't TC Sterling, no worries.

[SirMattBugsby]

Auba and Son over Tammy and Mane hasn't worked out well for me so far. It's strange because the former pair is not doing that bad, just the team they are in..

Mane is essentially the striker for Liverpool, definitely a candidate for season top-scorer. Auba, Son->Tammy, Mane is a prospective plan for GW 10, leaving 1-odd ITB. Hoping this is the last manual intervention my team will need for some time: for sanity purposes I'm looking to create a decent zombie team till Christmas period

[SirMattBugsby]

Hello again! Bit light at work right now, so I'm at it

Been languishing between 200k-400k since GW 20, the major factor being Mane(TC) As a Sports Medicine guy, I should have seen it coming tbh. Notice the large number of hammies around this time?

Activated WC in 25 and things look slightly better for now. Main problems:

1) Lundstram: Should've got rid on WC. Now I'm not sure what to do. If he wins his place back, BB 29 is on.

2) Trossard: Was meant to be a punt. Do I give him more time? He does play 28.. but Traore looks a far better option, esp now that Wolves have won 4-0 in EL.

3) 4 blankers in GW 28: I knew this while WCing and chose the bench accordingly. Grealish, Auba-> Barnes, Vardy was the plan for 28. It gives me 10 plus Hayden.

So, with 2 FTs and 0.8 ITB, planned move for GW 27 is Trossard->Traore. Thoughts?

[SirMattBugsby]

In a dilemma here. My team is:

Foster
TAA VvD Baldock
Salah KdB Grealish Trossard
Auba Jimenez Ings

Subs: McCarthy Lundstram Lascelles Hayden
0.8 ITB, 2 FTs

Options are:

1) Trossard->Traore. Will give me Traore (NOR) and gives me a chance to assess Lundstram (value tied up). Disadvantage? I'm replacing one GW 28 player with another, leaving my eleventh player in 28 to be Hayden rather than Trossard. Either that or I take a hit.

2) Lundstram->Boly. This makes more sense with 28 in mind. I bench Trossard for 27 and play him 28 in a 4-3-3. Problem is, I lose Lundstram.

Essentially, it's:
Traore vs Boly (NOR, tot)
Hayden (BUR) vs Trossard (CRY)
Lundstram vs no Lundstram

All suggestions appreciated

[blahblah]

Does Saiss for Lascelles work?

[SirMattBugsby]

Does Saiss for Lascelles work?

It's the same as replacing Trossard with Traore: one 28 player for another.

[Stevieste]

Id be tempted to Roll as feel Lundstram could start this week after his goal.

Defo bring Boly in though afterwards, 3 clean sheets in 3

[SirMattBugsby]

Id be tempted to Roll as feel Lundstram could start this week after his goal.

Defo bring Boly in though afterwards, 3 clean sheets in 3

Thanks Steve, I had 2 FTs so didn't wanna roll. Went for Traore, Lundstram stays as first sub for now.

Team for the week:

Foster
TAA VvD Baldock
Salah(c) KdB Grealish Traore
Auba Jimenez Ings

Subs: McCarthy Lundstram Lascelles Hayden
0.8 ITB

As a GW 25 WCer, I'm hoping this is the week where I pull back some rank. Specific wishes include a VvD goal, Baldock assist, Traore masterclass and an Auba brace. Foster.. I'm okay with some save points there

Expected points (realistic): >50
Expected points (optimistic): >70

Good luck all!

[SirMattBugsby]

So, of the above wishes, I only got an Auba brace. And I sold him

BB 29 as previously planned, but with Saka instead of Perez. Due to various reasons (differential, injury, DGW), I've taken a cool -8

Ings, Traore, Hayden-> Jota, Mahrez, Saka

Also gone with a SGW captain in Salah. Over and out amigos, good lucko!