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Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

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Patrician
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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Patrician »

To give you a bit more confidence in Pogba, I was forecasting him as scoring very well early on in the season. I the top 5 I think. Then he fell out with JM and his performance dropped right off.

Now he is back in a team with significantly more license for attacking football. Plus his fixture run is much better than Sane, and he will be rotated less. Was a no brainier transfer for me, and if it doesn’t work out he is an easy transfer to many good options.

Great series of posts!


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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Turd Ferguson »

Cheers. Pogba it is. My main goal is to do Son > Salah in 22 or 23, so this starts to free up the necessary funds.

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Turd Ferguson wrote:Am I jumping on a good pick early in Pogba? Or overreacting to a couple of good wins by United?
Neither. He is good value for 8m and that's it. He wasn't good value for 7.8m under Mourinho because he wasn't playing and when he did play he wasn't performing well. Under a manager that plays to his strengths he's just a good and safe selection but you had to have him last week to be early.

It irks me a bit to be getting him in after a lucky 15-pointer (when my player, Martial, was ill). But sometimes you have to just put these things aside.

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by dod »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 29 Dec 2018, 09:24
Turd Ferguson wrote:Am I jumping on a good pick early in Pogba? Or overreacting to a couple of good wins by United?
Neither. He is good value for 8m and that's it. He wasn't good value for 7.8m under Mourinho because he wasn't playing and when he did play he wasn't performing well. Under a manager that plays to his strengths he's just a good and safe selection but you had to have him last week to be early.

It irks me a bit to be getting him in after a lucky 15-pointer (when my player, Martial, was ill). But sometimes you have to just put these things aside.
I concur. Each GW is a new decision. Sticking to a bad plan because you chose a bad plan is a bad plan. All politicians should have this fact tattooed on the inside of their eyelids.

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Turd Ferguson »

Now I only wish I’d captained Pogba, which did cross my mind!

I’m a believer in Wolves’ defence, so I had my doubts about Kane, but Spurs seemed to be in good enough form that they could score two or three.

On a broader note, i hadn’t watched United’s first two games under Ole. I only saw the highlights and noticed that the xG numbers for the team weren’t that great. I watched today’s game and Pogba is playing with a lot of freedom. His goals weren’t isolated events. There were two or three others times in the first half where he nearly got on the end of a ball in the box that won’t show up in xG numbers.

I’m still skeptical of United in general. Eventually a result or two will go against them and reality will settle in that they’re still only the 5th best team or so. Their trip to Spurs will be a big game. Any attacker that can secure his place in the lineup is now a viable FPL option though.

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Bobby Fetta »

Turd Ferguson wrote: 30 Dec 2018, 19:28 On a broader note, i hadn’t watched United’s first two games under Ole. I only saw the highlights and noticed that the xG numbers for the team weren’t that great. I watched today’s game and Pogba is playing with a lot of freedom. His goals weren’t isolated events. There were two or three others times in the first half where he nearly got on the end of a ball in the box that won’t show up in xG numbers.
Same here. Not following the game live yesterday, I assumed the two goals were another couple of low probability long shots. Then watched MOTD and Pogba seemed to be getting in the 6 yard box regularly. It was pretty terrifying for me actually as I only knew the half-time scoreline. I went from being certain I wasn't going to chase Pogba's points to working out how I can get him in my team. If he keeps playing like that he looks a £10m+ FPL player.

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Turd Ferguson »

Charting a course to GW31:

GW26
Van Dijk > Bednarek
Ings > Auba (-4)
Salah (C)

Patricio
Robertson, Doherty, Bednarek
Salah (C), Son, Pogba, Sigurdsson
Aubameyang, Rashford, Arnautovic

Fabianski, Laporte, Camarasa, Balbuena

The hit may seem strange. I need the funds to do Ings to Auba, who's the clear captain choice next week. I could roll and do it next week, but then I have Laporte and Sig on the bench, with Camarasa and Bednarek away to Arsenal as my 11th man. If I do Sig > rotter, Ings > Auba, that leaves me playing Robertson and Van Dijk away to Man Utd. Not thrilled about 13m invested defensively in that game. Additionally, Arnie and Balbuena are away to City in GW28 and I'd have no money left to upgrade someone, so if I have two midfield rotters plus two West Ham, I'm in a difficult position yet again. Basically I can't field 11 strong players every week for the next three weeks without a hit. Liverpool have the Merseyside derby in GW29, so my thought is to just take a hit and unload Van Dijk now and give myself a chance of catching a haul for Auba at Huddersfield this week. I can use my extra transfer to get Maguire/Pereira in at the start of their nice run next week.

GW27
Laporte > Maguire/Pereira
Auba (C)

Fabianski (Ful H)
Robertson (Man A), Maguire (Cry H), Doherty (Bou A), Balbuena (Ful H)
Salah (Man A), Son (Bur A), Pogba (Liv H)
Auba (C) (Sou H), Rashford (Liv H), Arnautovic (Ful H)

Hopefully Balbuena recovers on time, otherwise it's Camarasa off the bench in 27.

GW28
Roll
Auba (C)

GW29
Auba > Vardy
Pogba/Rashford (C)

GW30
Rashford > Wilson
Bednarek > TAA
Salah (C)

GW31
Sigurdsson > Fraser

Yielding a team of:
Fabianski (Hud H)
Robertson (Ful A), TAA (Ful A), Maguire (Bur A), Balbuena (Hud H)
Fraser (New H), Salah (C) (Ful A)
Vardy (Bur A), Wilson (New H), Arnautovic (Hud H)

Son, Camarasa, Pogba, Doherty, Patricio on the bench, leaving me one short of a full squad if all the FA cup results go against me. A hit to do Son > Brooks would leave enough in the bank to do Arnautovic > Kane in GW33, when West Ham are at Chelsea and Kane is a captaincy option at home to Brighton. Free Hit in 32 and WC in 34 to set up the end of the season.

Plenty of twists and turns to come. Injuries and FA cup results will surely make me alter this plan, but it shows what type of team is possible with minimal hits. My captain options are nearly optimal each week and my fixtures across the entire team are quite nice as well.

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Well laid out. I need to book mark this to look at it properly!

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by raoul »

TF, you and I are in a similar position in terms of what we are trying to plan out re GW31. Except your position is a lot better than mine, in that you have a WC remaining.

Also, you currently have 6 GW31 players (I have a pathetic 2). So you could get to GW31 without any hits at all and with a spare transfer to use, given you seem to have 6 transfers available in the interim. Bringing in Auba (no current GW31 fixture) and then removing him means you go from 1 FT in hand to being 1 short, and dropping VVD (GW31 match) for Bednarek (no GW31 match) makes you 2 short. You currently use 1 hit, hence are 1 player short.

So, you are giving up a transfer and 8 pts to get Auba in and then out. Is that a sensible cost? Especially when you also lose the flex of the spare transfer to cover any injuries during this 6 week period?

Camarasa (who I also have) is no guarantee to play at the moment given his injury. Auba is ill and might therefore get a rest for hud (he is currently yellow flagged). I read somewhere (BBC I think) that Rashford needs a rest … and with a CL game coming on Tuesday maybe the ful game is that rest. And then of course there is Arnie...

If you got Vardy now, could you retain VVD and drop LaPorte instead this week? You would save hits, and also still have your transfer in hand should the 26-31 plan go off course in any way.

I have mapped out my own pathway to 31, and needing 9 players is a tricky and costly exercise - so I have thought these 6 GW through a lot. I too like the look of Auba for 3 weeks, but getting him in and out adds 2 hits to an already expensive exercise.

Don't get me wrong - I am not saying yours is a bad idea. Just querying it.

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Stemania »

Some really good posts in here TF, kudos. Have enjoyed reading from December onwards this morning. Will be a shame if this is indeed your last season. :(

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Turd Ferguson »

raoul wrote: 08 Feb 2019, 09:26 Bringing in Auba (no current GW31 fixture) and then removing him means you go from 1 FT in hand to being 1 short, and dropping VVD (GW31 match) for Bednarek (no GW31 match) makes you 2 short. You currently use 1 hit, hence are 1 player short.

So, you are giving up a transfer and 8 pts to get Auba in and then out. Is that a sensible cost? Especially when you also lose the flex of the spare transfer to cover any injuries during this 6 week period?
Yes, part of the reason I posted this was to let people snipe at the idea.

Basically I know that I'm being a little overaggressive with the hit this week. Moving directly to Vardy is an option I've considered. This would essentially be the difference in the two paths:
Auba.PNG
(Might captain someone other than Arnie in 27, but this captures the general idea.)

If I go with Vardy, I don't have a route to get Auba in 27. I'm taking a hit to give myself exposure to Auba hauls over the next three games. If we played this out 100 times, it's probably a slight negative more often than positive, but if Auba delivers it's a big positive. Something like 50% of the time it's a wash, Auba only does enough to pay back the hit. 30% of the time he blanks a couple of times and I lose 10 to 15 points. 20% of the time he comes through and I'm 20 to 30 points better off, maybe even more if he scores say, 4 goals in the next three. That's just a rough estimate obviously, but it displays my thinking. In math terms, this move has a right skewed payout.

All hell could break loose with this plan if there's some strange FA cup results. Son, Camarasa and Doherty all still have a decent chance of a game in 31. If United beat Chelsea in the cup, then I'll probably want Higuain instead of Vardy. Who knows. I'd rather play for points now until we have more info.
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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by raoul »

Turd Ferguson wrote: 08 Feb 2019, 16:38
raoul wrote: 08 Feb 2019, 09:26 Bringing in Auba (no current GW31 fixture) and then removing him means you go from 1 FT in hand to being 1 short, and dropping VVD (GW31 match) for Bednarek (no GW31 match) makes you 2 short. You currently use 1 hit, hence are 1 player short.

So, you are giving up a transfer and 8 pts to get Auba in and then out. Is that a sensible cost? Especially when you also lose the flex of the spare transfer to cover any injuries during this 6 week period?
Yes, part of the reason I posted this was to let people snipe at the idea.

Basically I know that I'm being a little overaggressive with the hit this week. Moving directly to Vardy is an option I've considered. This would essentially be the difference in the two paths:

Auba.PNG

(Might captain someone other than Arnie in 27, but this captures the general idea.)

If I go with Vardy, I don't have a route to get Auba in 27. I'm taking a hit to give myself exposure to Auba hauls over the next three games. If we played this out 100 times, it's probably a slight negative more often than positive, but if Auba delivers it's a big positive. Something like 50% of the time it's a wash, Auba only does enough to pay back the hit. 30% of the time he blanks a couple of times and I lose 10 to 15 points. 20% of the time he comes through and I'm 20 to 30 points better off, maybe even more if he scores say, 4 goals in the next three. That's just a rough estimate obviously, but it displays my thinking. In math terms, this move has a right skewed payout.

All hell could break loose with this plan if there's some strange FA cup results. Son, Camarasa and Doherty all still have a decent chance of a game in 31. If United beat Chelsea in the cup, then I'll probably want Higuain instead of Vardy. Who knows. I'd rather play for points now until we have more info.
Snipe? I prefer constructively debate :D

I like your thinking (and I like your thread in general, very thought provoking). I still might take Auba before tomorrow, but having no transfers left and staring at one possibly two other things that would cost a hit, I suspect I will stick with Aguero for this week at least.

Good luck to us both.

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Turd Ferguson »

No Aubameyang in the lineup. Sigh. No rashford either means I’ll be fielding 10 this week. I really hate when managers are unrealistic in their assessments. Emery’s quote was something like “Aubameyang has been ill but he should be OK.” Alas. Next week is the week I really wanted him so I’ll just take my lump and move on.

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Turd Ferguson »

Notes:

All the Prem teams have gone through against lesser opposition in the FA cup, so it's going to be a big blank. If United beat Chelsea, I'll prob do Higuain instead of Vardy, so my plan doesn't change much. Auba is at Spurs in 29 and home to United in 30, so he really needs to go in 29. Two tough games followed by a blank. It's just a question of who comes in.

The tricky part right now is that Callum Wilson and David Brooks are out injured until the cusp of when I'd need them. Rashford is at Arsenal in GW30, Wilson would be at Huddersfield. It would have been nice timing but Wilson might not be ready.

One option is to simply hold Rashford and play him against Arsenal. Perhaps bring in Wilson in GW31 or just hold Rashford through the blanks. I've gained several price rises on Rashford, so it might be worth it to hold him through my wildcard in GW34. I imagine many are in the same boat. One of the problems for me is that if United have a second double, it would be Eve (A) and either Wol (A) or City (H), so not a very good one. United's fixtures from 30-36 are dodgy.

If I held him, it would free up a transfer to upgrade Camarasa to a genuine fifth midfielder. Felipe Andersen would be on my list, but I'm blocked by owning Fab, Arnie, and Balbuena. That leaves the Leicester boys, Maddison and Barnes. I'm really curious to see what Barnes does the next few weeks. Maddison racks up a lot of key passes from set pieces, so he'd be the safer choice, but Barnes looks far more of a threat for a brace. Budget is also very tight if I go with Maddison. I couldn't afford many price changes against me in the next few weeks. WIth Barnes I have plenty of margin.

I'd prefer Chelsea to win tomorrow. It would make GW31 a lot tougher for most FPL managers. If Chelsea have a game, people could simply hold their Chelsea defenders and Hazard if they have them. For me, the benefit would be that I could play Sigurdsson at home to Chelsea if I needed to. Bleh.

The general plan is intact though. It's possible to get 9 or 10 good FPL assets with a decent enough fixture in 31. It's just a matter of who from our limited pool of players is healthy and in form come the second week of March. And also I need City to stop going berserk. The fact that they have games in 4 different competitions over the next month should mean some FPL managers get Pep'd. :D

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Turd Ferguson »

One last thing. If you're looking for an alternative to Vardy or Wilson, it seems you could do worse than this fellow. I can't believe his xG numbers over the last 7 games.
Screen Shot 2019-02-17 at 6.40.11 PM.png
Can't figure out who it is?

Check out the leaders in xG since mid-December.
Screen Shot 2019-02-17 at 6.46.02 PM.png
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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Turd Ferguson »

4 consecutive red arrows to go from 10K overall to 44K overall. Really disappointing, as this is a calmer part of the season where I expected my team to do relatively well.

The move for Aubamayeng went as poorly as possible. He had an illness in 26 and a Lacazette Europa League red card led to an Aubamayeng rest in 27. He even got brought on for a 1-pointer. I've now turned irrationally vindictive towards Emery, and I hope they go out in the semis of the EL and finish 6th in the PL. :evil: :lol: It's additionally disappointing because I'd identified GW27 as a difficult week for captaincy, and indeed, most of the top players blanked. A brace from Auba would have meant a huge green arrow. If Salah, Pogba or Son had a game with decent FPL prospects, I never would have made the move. Van Dijk even managed to get a clean sheet at Old Trafford, so both sides of my move went poorly.

I feel like a lot of things have gone against me. If Brighton don't require a 4th round Fa cup replay, there's a good chance Chelsea have a double gameweek in 25, in which case I would have held Hazard and captained him (scored a brace against Huddersfield). Instead I moved him on for Sane, and captained Sane for his 1-pointer in 25, while Aguero proceeded to get hat tricks against Arsenal and Chelsea. The good news is that my wildcard and free hit are still intact, so I just have to hope that my bad luck is out of the way and I can make a late charge back into the top 10k.

Looking ahead, Rashford presents an immediate concern. I don't have the money to upgrade to Vardy or Higuain. Leicester and Chelsea are team in flux right now anyway, so I'd prefer a couple more weeks to observe them.

Barnes and Rondon are the two most obvious picks. Barnes and Burnley have both been surprisingly productive in attack for the last couple of months. Better than Rondon and Newcastle. Newcastle, however, have the better fixtures through GW33. Barnes has scored in 4 games in a row. When it comes down to it, do we back Burnley to continue scoring goals at this rate? Tough call. I will likely go with Rondon.

Re: Bournemouth. King also looks a decent option, but Wilson could be back within a few weeks and Bournemouth are at Arsenal, home to City in the next two.

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Turd Ferguson »

Last chance saloon for Arnautovic. He's been a huge drag on my team the last several weeks. First he was returning from injury, then he was going to start against City but fell ill, then he didn't get a start against Newcastle 3 days later. Perhaps the lack of training time kept him out, but I think the more likely explanation is that Pellegrini has moved him down in the pecking order because of the China affair, and has done so behind closed doors.

If there were a good alternative, I'd take a hit to remove him this week, but Barnes is at Liverpool, and there's question marks over Callum Wilson's playing time, ruling out both him and King for me. I already own Rondon and Vardy, and my spare cash will go to Hazard rather than Higuain. I've done Bednarek > TAA this week. I'll likely do Arnie > Wilson, Son > Hazard (-4) next week if Arnie is benched again and Wilson looks likely to start. If Arnie starts this week, I'll save myself the -4 and do Arnie > Wilson in 33.

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Turd Ferguson »

I had a dream last night that I woke up on Saturday morning and I'd forgotten to finalize my wildcard. Both Lacazette and Aubameyang were in my team. It was a moment of sheer panic. I'll be glad once it's over. :lol: :lol:

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Turd Ferguson wrote: 11 Apr 2019, 18:50 I had a dream last night that I woke up on Saturday morning and I'd forgotten to finalize my wildcard. Both Lacazette and Aubameyang were in my team. It was a moment of sheer panic. I'll be glad once it's over. :lol: :lol:
:mrgreen:

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Turd Ferguson »

In a similar vein to Patrician, I've been looking at what I call the fundamental team - the best long-term picks - and how they would have fared in terms of total points.

Playing around with the budget I came up with this team:
season long team.PNG
This team would have cost 97.5 at the beginning of the season. Even using reasonable hop on points, you could have gotten this team for less than 101. You could swap in Pickford for Fabianski with the extra budget, but I see Fabianski as a more realistic pick. Fabianski was widely owned by Christmas whereas Everton were suprisingly good in the 2nd half of the season. I don't think Pickford was on many people's radars as a season long pick.

Here's where the fun begins. Total up the points scored by those players: 2153. Give these scores for each chip: Triple Captain, 10; Bench Boost, 15; Free Hit, 15. Then give 7 points a week for captain score. These are very reasonable amounts for a good manager. That gets us to 2459 points, good for an overall rank of about 1200 overall, nearly top 1k.

Now let's be a little more aggressive and assume the manager had a good season. Let's say: Triple Captain, 15; Bench Boost, 20; Free Hit, 25; and 9 points a game for the captain score. Finally, let's add autosubs. Combined, the starting lineup would have missed 31 games, so even giving just 1.5 points a game to our autosubs (Doherty, AWB, Camarasa), we get 2,601 points, essentially tied for 2nd overall in the entire game without making a single transfer.

Easier said than done, but the point is that you don't need to consistently time players well to score well. Identifying the right players early and holding them for the long haul is a recipe for success.
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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Patrician »

Yep, and super easy and realistic from that team to jump onto the Son and Pogba runs, and to get lucky with the TC Aguero DGW Hatty.


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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Sutter Kane »

Was it last season there was a team that would have won if you left it all season? Here's the one from the season before.

https://thevideoscope.com/2018/07/07/wi ... r-changes/

Any similarities/trends down the years? I don't think so - but does there need to be? I mean we don't need these exact players to form a trend, just a base to pretty much keep all season; captains and chips will bring us points. What it tells me is that transfers can be poison! If you know you're onto a decent player, don't change him. I think we all knew early on, for example, Fraser was a ridiculously good value pick, yet many of us changed him. (poss due to B'mouth's horrid run of fixtures which they admittedly 'failed' in).

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by raoul »

Sutter Kane wrote: 23 May 2019, 07:57 Was it last season there was a team that would have won if you left it all season? Here's the one from the season before.

https://thevideoscope.com/2018/07/07/wi ... r-changes/

Any similarities/trends down the years? I don't think so - but does there need to be? I mean we don't need these exact players to form a trend, just a base to pretty much keep all season; captains and chips will bring us points. What it tells me is that transfers can be poison! If you know you're onto a decent player, don't change him. I think we all knew early on, for example, Fraser was a ridiculously good value pick, yet many of us changed him. (poss due to B'mouth's horrid run of fixtures which they admittedly 'failed' in).
I have reached similar conclusions to the above, and have written them elsewhere on other threads. Who knows if this will work in future seasons but the following clearly did in this season:

Fabianski (or other safe 4.5)
3 Liv/MC starting defenders
Salah/Hazard/Sterling (to fill 2 spots, and transfer regularly to rotate them, almost every week)
Aguero/Auba/Kane

That's the core of 7 and add 4 base line (GK2, D5, M5 and F3 for me), trying to ensure D5 and M5 are starters for their teams.

25.5m remains for the most important choices ... the other 4 to fill D4, M3, M4 and F2.

Annoyingly I had Boly, Richarlison, Milivo and Jimenez in GW1 in these slots. Keeping all 4 would hardly have been a disaster...

interestingly, choice of F1 between the 3 above was largely irrelevant. Best choice was actually Kane (assuming Aguero transferred in to cover Kane's injury weeks - 236pts)

The above plan scores around 2500 - 2600 depending on how quickly you want to assume you picked up Doherty, Wilson, Fraser etc.

I reckon rotating captaincy (as against say just Salah all season) is worth about 80pts. Same again for rotation of the 2 midfield spots above.

Of course, picking the right players elsewhere helps a whole lot more...

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Sutter Kane »

What you have to note is that it appears that the easiest way to form a solid base starts with a 'big' defence. Now whether that means a formation other than 3 at the back, not sure but I think we can mostly all agree, starting next season with Liv/Man C defenders (and maybe just those guys in a back 3) is a very strong base before bargains make themselves known.

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dod
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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by dod »

Sutter Kane wrote: 25 May 2019, 14:30 What you have to note is that it appears that the easiest way to form a solid base starts with a 'big' defence. Now whether that means a formation other than 3 at the back, not sure but I think we can mostly all agree, starting next season with Liv/Man C defenders (and maybe just those guys in a back 3) is a very strong base before bargains make themselves known.
It's certainly the way I'm looking to go. One possible fly in the ointment is VAR which is likely to reduce the number of clean sheets (at least initially until players adjust to it). I am even tempted by a flexible 5-4-1/4-5-1 set-up.

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Turd Ferguson »

I'm going to start adding some results from a deep dive into clean sheets that I did. The impetus for this was mostly the abysmal Wolves/West Ham defensive rotation that I attempted and whether a rotation can ever be fruitful. I'll get to that after the data.

First, tables for the last 4 seasons sorted by most clean sheets. My impression is that the league has slowly gotten more attacking over the years, so I'd rather use more recent seasons to look for trends.

Looking back at clean sheet totals is interesting in and of itself (in 98/99, Arsenal allowed just 17 goals the entire season, and came in second. Wild.). There seems to have been a defensive improvement especially in the top teams around the time that Mourinho arrived. Fergie responded by getting Vidic, Evra, Van der Sar, and Carrick around this time, so it seems Mourinho raised the level of the title contenders a bit, but this has eased up. Perhaps the rest of the league simply improved or the likes of Ancelotti, Rodgers, Pellegrini, Martinez, Villas-Boas, etc. led to a more open style. It was commonplace in the 2010s for the league winner to have conceded more than 30, which is not the case in the Noughts.

Anyway, enough history. My point is that goals conceded seems to have crept up over time, therefore I'd prefer to look at the most recent few years rather than decades of data. This was manual input into excel, so if anyone notices a piece of incorrect data, let me know.
CS tables.PNG
One thing to note is that this season was a little funny for clean sheets. It had the lowest number of clean sheets of any of the last 4 season, and also the lowest correlation between number of clean sheets and table position (assuming that it's a negative relationship, of course).

The culprits here are United, Arsenal, and Wolves, and also Watford and West Ham to a lesser extent.

One of the things you'll notice is how the number of clean sheets tends to average out in each season. The average teams always seems to keep 8-11 clean sheets or so, with only a few outliers. If you look at the number of teams with 7 or fewer clean sheets, there were only 2 in 2018, 5 in 2017, and 4 in 2016. However, 7 teams were unable to top 7 clean sheets this year. On the flip side, the number of teams to reach 10 clean sheets was 12, 13, and 12, respectively in each of the three prior seasons. Only 10 teams reach the 10 CS mark this year.

Essentially, there were 3 or 4 teams that were "missing" two or three clean sheets relative to what the league table usually looks like. You probably won't be surprised that two of them, Wolves and West Ham, were the teams I banked early in the season to make for a decent defensive investment, hence my having the bitter energy to go through all of this analysis.
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Last edited by Turd Ferguson on 30 May 2019, 20:49, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Turd Ferguson »

Regression on the last 4 seasons' worth of data
CS regression.PNG

Goals conceded is a reasonably strong predictor of the number of clean sheets.

Getting from a team's defensive performance in the platonic sense to its number of clean sheets involves a lot of noise.

First, there's the true performance: what quantity/quality of chances did they concede, how committed were they in their challenges, how good is their goalkeeper, etc. xG as a stat captures the first (what chances did they concede), but not the latter two. So there's some noise between how good a team truly is and what their xG is.

After that, there's some luck/variance in real goals conceded. Maybe you have a season where some opponents happen to have a few more shots fly in the top corner and you underperform xG, or your opponents do the opposite and snatch at some great chances and you're let off the hook.

Finally, the distribution of goals conceded affects clean sheets. If you conceded 38 goals for the season, you could allow one per game and have zero clean sheets. You could allow 2 per game in the games you concede, and end up with 19 clean sheets. These would be statistical flukes. The R-squared of .77 in the regression shows that when you're conceding goals, you're tending not to keep clean sheets, and vice versa.

The point of this is to say that, even if we see a team with a great xG early on in the season, it will only be a decent indicator of clean sheets. There's a lot of noise in the way before it's a bankable proposition.
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Last edited by Turd Ferguson on 30 May 2019, 21:00, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Turd Ferguson »

Can anyone provide a one minute explanation on how to use the table function on FISO? I want to present the tabular form of the data in the regression above.

These screenshots have the teams ranked from worst to best by goals against, along with their outperformance in terms of clean sheets using the parameters from the regression (In simple terms, each teams starts with 24 clean sheets and loses .25 clean sheets for every goal allowed. That number is your expected number of clean sheets based on the data.)
Regression table 1.PNG
Regression table 2.PNG
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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by Mav3rick »

Turd Ferguson wrote: 30 May 2019, 20:45 Can anyone provide a one minute explanation on how to use the table function on FISO? I want to present the tabular form of the data in the regression above.
It works like an HTML table, so you need a table, containing rows (tr) which in turn contain data/cells (td), here's an example:

Code: Select all

[table]
[tr]
[td]row 1 col 1[/td]
[td]row 1 col 2[/td]
[td]row 1 col 3[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]row 2 col 1[/td]
[td]row 2 col 2[/td]
[td]row 2 col 3[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
row 1 col 1 row 1 col 2 row 1 col 3
row 2 col 1 row 2 col 2 row 2 col 3

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Re: Turd Ferguson - It's a funny squad

Post by dod »

This is really useful stuff TF :D . Great contribution.

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