Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

[baganboy]

Podcast Observation 12: Marcos Alonso, and Value? (Always Cheating Podcast #145: Random Access Memory)

So, do you get rid of Marcus Alonso?
First Stop: listen to this amazing sequence from @hailcheaters
Link Below, starts from 30 mins odd.
https://soundcloud.com/alwayscheating/e ... ory-gw9-10

-------------------

Question: Marcus Alonso. Is it worth persevering with him?

On the basis of him putting out one of the worst FPL, if not the worst full stop performances in the game week, I want to punish him somehow. I want to humiliate him. I want to shave his beautiful hair off and make sure he wander around the town square.

But looking at the fixture ticker:

bur CRY EVE tot FUL

So, amazing defensive fixtures coming up for CHE despite some of their weak performances in the last couple of weeks.
Also if you look at how Alonso has performed throughout the season, is it just 3 blanks!

He is 7 m. Sure he is expensive, but for him returns it is not too much. If you had a MID in your team who picks up 6 points in 2 of your 3 fixtures, replacing him would not be at the top of your priority list.
Also owned by 47% of all managers. And FUL at the bridge in 4 weeks’ time!
……
Okay, here’s a little comparison. Will name a few players, you have to tell me if the player have more or fewer points that Marcus Alonso.
Pierre Emerick Aubameyang.
FEWER.
Alex Lacazette.
FEWER.
Sergio Aguero.
FEWER.
………………
Here’s information. There is only one person in the game who has more points than Alonso, and that is Eden Hazard.
Even then, if you think you are not getting value out of a 7m pound defender, then you need to re-assess your sense of value.

……………………………

This is the reason, your honor, why I am a big fan of the Always Cheating Podcast.

I have also heard this a couple of times of different Twitter discussions. The question is always a variant of “Is there value in Alonso”; and “Is Alonso worth 7M”.
It drives me to the wall a little bit, really.
Guys, what is value?
If you haven’t quantified value, you haven’t figured out enough about value anyway.
So let me repeat the question.
Can you quantify the worth of 6.5m (the price at which I bought him)? In terms of GW points at FPL?


I can.
Here is the measuring scale**. [Link Here]


And here are your points. I expect Alonso to get ~26 points in every 6 GWs to be of value.
In the last 6 GWs, he has got 26 points.

I have my answer. Do you?
………….


** You can debate my method of arriving at the scale (it is not sacrosanct), but nevertheless, I have a number to quantify Alonso’s worth. As long as you have another number, I think you are fine. You have something to talk about when you talk about value. You don’t otherwise. Without having a specific numerical value, one cannot talk about value for a player IMHO.

[Smurphy Paw]

Quite a punchy post BB


(To reassure you, I'm holding!)

[baganboy]

So am I. Thanks, SP.

It's mostly angst, trust me. Talking of value of a player without a value, even in twitter, gets me to throw numbers at people. And nobody, least of all me, likes throwing numbers.

Caveat: Does not mean that I will definitely let go of a player who is missing his target points (for example if I think the underlyings are fine, and fixtures are good, or my eye test, whatever it's worth, tells me that this player is worth holding on to).
But a player who is proving to be of great value (both in terms of meeting targets, and volume of points), and who has a great set of fixtures - if one is letting go of him for a numerically inferior player, then one is not playing the percentages, one is just trying to get lucky (which is fine too and works sometimes, don't get me wrong. But it's just that. A punt)

[blahblah]

Quite a punchy post BB


(To reassure you, I'm holding!)

Ditto, in not sure what inspired it - are people selling him? Sounds good to me as a keeper...

[baganboy]

Oh yes. Twitter is full of NoLonso
But of course, this post is inspired by a Podcast. As all Podcast Observations are

As for Alonso, I agree. Great to hold at the moment. However, do check with the target points regularly too (which of course you will). There is no set-and-forget IMHO, however,Alonso has potential to be a set-and-sporadically-check. haha.

[baganboy]

I was thinking on this while on the morning run.

Salah is in the consideration set now. Not as a 13m, 39 points per 5 gw ultra-super-premium, but if just considered a 11m super-premium.
And he would be considered if Mane continues to be pedestrian.
Basically, the context of (Salah + Arnautovic) being worse than (Aguero+Mane) ---- does not fit if Mane is dreadful.

[baganboy]

Effin' Kevin De Bruyne rose in price today.
How trigger-happy can people be, bloody hell?
Like, seriously. This way, one cannot plan for anything at all!

[Aldershot Rejects]

Effin' Kevin De Bruyne rose in price today.
How trigger-happy can people be, bloody hell?
Like, seriously. This way, one cannot plan for anything at all!

Yeah, it is so frustrating, like building on shifting sands. Hadn't realised Salah was going to rise (although I probably wouldn't have bought him in).

[DAREEL]

Effin' Kevin De Bruyne rose in price today.
How trigger-happy can people be, bloody hell?
Like, seriously. This way, one cannot plan for anything at all!

I'm trying not to rant here
The price rises are crazier than ever now. The cautious ones who like to plan and wait for presser info have been thrown off their game and are being punished . I'm struggling to keep up this season and my awful team value is hindering me now. FPL need to slow it down in my opinion. Not just to suit me but with the increase of players playing they should realise that more moves will be made earlier, especially from the newer players, and tweak the algorithm to suit. I'm not a fan of price rise sites either. They just send people into a panic and force their hand, I know a lot will not agree with that though.

[DAREEL]

Effin' Kevin De Bruyne rose in price today.
How trigger-happy can people be, bloody hell?
Like, seriously. This way, one cannot plan for anything at all!

Yeah, it is so frustrating, like building on shifting sands. Hadn't realised Salah was going to rise (although I probably wouldn't have bought him in).

Salah was on like 70 % ish on fpl statistics when he rose

[Smurphy Paw]

Regarding De Bruyne, I have been saying for a few days that if planning to bring him in one needs to budget for more than £9.7M.
In my case I have Mané and would like to keep him for GW10-12 before moving sideways to KDB. That means I have a price of £10M in mind for KDB and hope to have a bit of change left. If he presents a really compelling case for inclusion sooner than that I'll reconsider.

As for the price changes in the super-premium midfield category, I imagine that a lot of people will have hopped off Hazard because of doubts about him playing. Salah or KDB look to be the reasonable directions of travel. Factor that in and there is a particular reason why that market was so volatile yesterday

[blahblah]

2 parts of my sale path rose - so I am 0.1m up despite his rise

[blahblah]

Oh yes. Twitter is full of NoLonso
But of course, this post is inspired by a Podcast. As all Podcast Observations are

As for Alonso, I agree. Great to hold at the moment. However, do check with the target points regularly too (which of course you will). There is no set-and-forget IMHO, however,Alonso has potential to be a set-and-sporadically-check. haha.

Of course I do, but implicitly ie a player foooooks me off and I sell him, usually before the day is out

[baganboy]

AR, DAREEL, SP - Completely agree. Perhaps us long-time FPL mangers have a little bit of re-learning to do, to choose some kind of a middle-ground in terms of transfer. As in - this game will not change and rectify this madness. So we will have to change unfortunately.

Doesn't stop me from venting about this ridiculousness, of course.

[Smurphy Paw]

I don’t think it’s madness. Reading the crowd is just one of the factors to consider. It actually has a lot to do with why I prefer FPL to TFF. To extrapolate, it is also part of the reason why I rarely commit rigidly to lots of moves, in order, in advance. I know my directions of travel pretty well but I don’t mind amending the plan on a regular basis.

For me the penny dropped about 2 years ago, reading the Ville thread. Until then I always sought to avoid price rises. Then I got to understand how Ville’s patience paid dividends.
The downside is that I lack his discipline, which is a completely different conversation!

[baganboy]

^ Agree agree 100%, SP

Ville's thread has been such a huge learning! If there's anything at FPL I am glad to have participated and played a part in, it's that entire movement of tracking top players and their playing styles. The Dazzler was of course the prime mover there, and is missed. I agree with you - the learnings from those threads were immense.
It's almost hilarious to think that we discussed for a couple of seasons if Ville is just plain lucky

PS: another reason why I think FISO is the ideal forum for FPL thoughts to germinate and develop. The general Twitter FPL community is basically the home of individual mavericks who come up with (say) one brilliant idea. But that idea remain static after the initial effort, and is not developed further because there is only one person thinking through it and crash-testing it.
FISO, by nature, is inclusive. This allows any idea to be crash-tested by many similar FPL minds, thus leading to continuous improvement, if the initial originator is willing and open to participate, discuss and improve the ideas further.

[No Way Jose]

WCing? I’m very tempted!

First draft is:

Fab button

Robertson mendy Alonso Laporte Doherty

Hazard salah richarlison Fraser cheap playing mid

Aguero Arnautovic quaner

Fraser and richarlison rotate fixtures well, 3 main teams covered in captaincy options, strong defence

Quaner as a dead spot isn’t ideal but I’ve gone cold on ings and Jimenez of late

[jacksosi]

Success is getting games now, F3 for £4.5?

[blahblah]

WCing? I’m very tempted!

First draft is:

Fab button

Robertson mendy Alonso Laporte Doherty

Hazard salah richarlison Fraser cheap playing mid

Aguero Arnautovic quaner

Fraser and richarlison rotate fixtures well, 3 main teams covered in captaincy options, strong defence

Quaner as a dead spot isn’t ideal but I’ve gone cold on ings and Jimenez of late

Not sure who you have now re affordability....

VvD for Laporte

Murray for Arnie

W-B for Doherty (you do have W-B?)

does that get Maddi in the midfield too?

[Aldershot Rejects]

WCing? I’m very tempted!

First draft is:

Fab button

Robertson mendy Alonso Laporte Doherty

Hazard salah richarlison Fraser cheap playing mid

Aguero Arnautovic quaner

Fraser and richarlison rotate fixtures well, 3 main teams covered in captaincy options, strong defence

Quaner as a dead spot isn’t ideal but I’ve gone cold on ings and Jimenez of late

If I was wildcarding now, I'd be pretty similar to that side.
I'm not sure I'd want to play Doherty every week if that is the plan.
There may be some sense in downgrading one of your players to put a bit more money on the bench to cover unexpected absences (that may reflect my own experience over the past couple of weeks though)

[No Way Jose]

Success is getting games now, F3 for £4.5?

Yeah not a bad shout but I will never really use him and he will be back to the bench soon IMO

[No Way Jose]

WCing? I’m very tempted!

First draft is:

Fab button

Robertson mendy Alonso Laporte Doherty

Hazard salah richarlison Fraser cheap playing mid

Aguero Arnautovic quaner

Fraser and richarlison rotate fixtures well, 3 main teams covered in captaincy options, strong defence

Quaner as a dead spot isn’t ideal but I’ve gone cold on ings and Jimenez of late

If I was wildcarding now, I'd be pretty similar to that side.
I'm not sure I'd want to play Doherty every week if that is the plan.
There may be some sense in downgrading one of your players to put a bit more money on the bench to cover unexpected absences (that may reflect my own experience over the past couple of weeks though)

Yeah in that side it’s a 532/442 more or less with 1 of Fraser Doherty richarlison etc potentially missing out most weeks

I feel this side reduces my bench spend well too as Doherty, quaner, bench mid would come in at not far off base price

quaner to kamara or success to turn a dead spot into a 1 pointer for .1 or .2 worth it?

[No Way Jose]

WCing? I’m very tempted!

First draft is:

Fab button

Robertson mendy Alonso Laporte Doherty

Hazard salah richarlison Fraser cheap playing mid

Aguero Arnautovic quaner

Fraser and richarlison rotate fixtures well, 3 main teams covered in captaincy options, strong defence

Quaner as a dead spot isn’t ideal but I’ve gone cold on ings and Jimenez of late

Not sure who you have now re affordability....

VvD for Laporte

Murray for Arnie

W-B for Doherty (you do have W-B?)

does that get Maddi in the midfield too?

Link should be working if you want to look. I have Arnie, WB and Doherty our of those examples

I like Maddison as a player and don’t mind him or another as a richarlison replacement. Wouldn’t say I’m desperate to get him though

With the uncertainty around city mods and attackers having a double up with good attacking threat seems a good idea

[baganboy]

Sorry for the delay in responding to this, NWJ. Was out for the morning and afternoon. Will drop this into your RMT also...

WCing? I’m very tempted!

Not yet, not yet. But soon. I am waiting for KDB and Eriksen to hit form (or not), and Mahrez to have a consistent run (or not). Early to mid teens gameweek, I think...


To start with, I thoroughly like your team. Some observations below - most of which are basically agreements with your picks.

First draft is:

Fab button
I understand the 4+4.5 GK thing. My old-fangled ideas tends to tell me that Fab is not strong enough as the perma-4.5m keeper, and get someone like Patricio or Hart. But that is perhaps just that, the sense that WHM is not defensively strong enough. Fabianski is getting enough and more points. Basically this is a fine pick, I think.

Robertson mendy Alonso Laporte Doherty
Just delightful. I will be here next GW too.

Hazard salah richarlison Fraser cheap playing mid
Know what, I am exactly here too at the moment.
Richarlison I will end up keeping too. Maddison too seems more like a excellent player in a support role, but is another in the price range and consideration set.
And you are right - Fraser and Richarlison rotate well, and a 3X4 with Fraser, Doherty, Arnautovic, richarlison should be good.

Aguero Arnautovic quaner
This is good too. I agree with jacksosi that Success will be a good 4.5 striker that is starting.
Arnautovic - is he crocked? Mitrovic is not-in-form, but Glenn Murray is turning back the clock yet again, and seems like the safest choice. It just seems that he is exactly the kind of player that the moment one gets him into the team, he will not score for a month.
How much money do you have? Can you get in one more premium a little while later? Vardy is not a good place to go right now, after the dreadful, dreadful news.Will Laca be too expensive? Or even, heavens forbid, Morata?

[No Way Jose]

Don’t be silly! No apologies needed. I haven’t hit the button yet as price rices haven’t forced me to. I want to be certain but it looks the right decision

I will look at Eriksen and Kane for 15 onwards but not before. I created a 2nd draft in my RMT without salah but with mane and KDB. Have a look if you have time

Having been burnt by Mahrez already and with city rotation I think I’ll steer clear of that particular headache

I’ll reply to the rest in my RMT to save ruining yours!

[Joccki_10]

Mahrez then?

[baganboy]

Yeah, very much in the consideration set.
Formation is the only problem.

Will write in detail about this.... haven't thought through in detail. Operational issues with my team can kill that move I think....

[baganboy]

Here goes.

1. Mendy + (Richarlison or Arnautovic or Maddison or Sigurdsson)

vs

2. TAA + Mahrez

So okay, tell me. Red button or Blue button?

[Smurphy Paw]

Are they the only two choices?

[baganboy]

Kinda. though I am open to alternatives too.

Let me spell this out. Color-coded: (Happy; Unsure/Low-Priority; Change)

Patricio / Fabianski

Sakho / Doherty / Laporte / Robertson / Alonso

Richarlison / Mane / Hazard / Fraser / Gunnarsson

Aguero / Lacazette / Kamara



My planned move for this week was (Fraser + Sakho) out in (4.5mid+ Mendy)

Which is a fine move. And it gives me the optimal spread (IMHO) of 5 X ~premium defenders*, 2X Super premium, 2X Premium, 1X Midpriced attacker.

But I can actually go one step further and get (Fraser + Richarlison) out in (4.5mid+ Mahrez). Next week, if I manage to do Sakho to TAA, that gives me 5 X ~ premium defenders, 2X Super premium, 3X Premium, which is higher potential than the previous.


Suggestions?

* Doherty being considered a premium defender.