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A forum for comment and discussion on Fantasy PremierLeague.com (FPL) Teams. Post your Rate My Team (RMT) messages here!
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ajcairns
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by ajcairns »

I’m not completely sure that some of the “likely to miss GW1” lot are more likely to miss it than not Ruth. Always feels like we expect them to come back late but in reality even with a full three weeks off the players from England Italy Argentina and Brazil could still get a pre season game or two and plenty of training before 13 Aug, in 31 days time. The SF and QF players seem even more likely to be available. They won’t need a great deal of conditioning work and the clubs will want to play them if they are injury free.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

OK, just for you I have gone back to the France team that played the final of Euro2016 to see what happened with them. That game was 10th July and season began 13th August so very similar in that respect, though there's an additional factor that last season was highly compressed and the season before ran way over; many players haven't had a proper break for 2 years (as a number of managers have referred to).

Giroud & Koscielny (Arsenal) - neither made it for GW1, not even on the bench. Giroud made 29 appearances in the PL that season, Koscielny 33.
Pogba, Martial & Schneiderlin (United) - Pogba missed GW1, Martial played, Schneiderlin was on the bench. Pogba made 30 appearances in the PL that season, Schneiderlin was sold to Everton.
Lloris & Sissoko (Spurs) - Lloris played, Sissoko absent. Sissoko made 25 appearances in the PL that season.
Kanté (Chelsea) - played.
Cabaye (Palace) - managed only a few minutes as a late sub. He played 32 PL games that season.
Payet (W. Ham) - played only 20 minutes off the bench. He was West Ham's key man before pushing for a mid-season transfer to Marseille.

As far as I can tell, that's it. 10 PL players in the France squad. 3 started in GW1, 3 came off the bench, 4 didn't feature at all.

The purpose of these summaries is not to be predictive. It's about identifying some possible areas of opportunity that I want to keep an eye on during pre-season and especially in the week before August 13th. I don't expect it to be useful for anyone else; if it is, great but this is just my own notekeeping and it's the start of a process, not the end; I plan to update the posts with additional notes over the next 4 weeks or so.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by ajcairns »

I really appreciate your proper analysis on this thread, I wasn't planning on keeping count. Was just my gut feel that 32 days from now to GW1 is a long break but clearly not!

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by CptPugwash »

Hi Ruth.

At this stage what's your best guess for the best 3 Chelsea picks for Game 1 only. (That's with a view to a Wk1 Wildcard)

I'm also considering a Wk3 Wild Card. At the moment Chelsea look to have the best run Wk4toWk9. Obviously we will have a lot more info by then, but if you had to guess now which 3 would you take medium/long term from then.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

ajcairns wrote:I really appreciate your proper analysis on this thread, I wasn't planning on keeping count. Was just my gut feel that 32 days from now to GW1 is a long break but clearly not!
Well, think about it. Liverpool begin pre-season today (12th July), Chelsea the same. Liverpool have a camp in Austria, Chelsea will be going to Ireland shortly (later this week, I believe). Most clubs will be the same or similar. Klopp wants his players to have 3 weeks off minimum (ideally 4); Chelsea don't expect the tournament players back until they had such a break either but players can return earlier if they choose to. It's something of a patchwork quilt, even within individual clubs, but the bottom line is, if clubs are beginning pre-season today then those involved late into the summer will be 2-4 weeks behind their colleagues.

Either pre-season is unnecessarily long (in which case, why do it?) or some of them will be under-cooked come August 13th. It's not only a matter of fitness, there will also likely be work on team patterns and so on. There's also the underlying fitness of each individual to consider (as in my comments about KDB and his spate of injuries). Managers and medical staff will have to make a case-by-case judgement.

So, this is all about identifying where opportunities might occur as a result of normal starting players not being ready. That's all. :)

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

CptPugwash wrote: Hi Ruth. At this stage what's your best guess for the best 3 Chelsea picks for Game 1 only.

I'm also considering a Wk3 Wild Card. At the moment Chelsea look to have the best run Wk4toWk9. Obviously we will have a lot more info by then, but if you had to guess now which 3 would you take medium/long term from then.
Too soon to have much confidence, I'm not even 100% sure what formation Chelsea will use this season yet. :shock:

For GW1 only, Alonso could be interesting if he's still there. Hudson-Odoi also. Perhaps one of Pulisic, Havertz, Werner. GW4 is too far away for me to look at, sorry, that will need to take the early games of the season into account but it does seem to me that Havertz is quite kindly priced at 8.5m. Rüdiger seems OK at 5.5m but there are no obvious bargains in the Chelsea defence and Chilwell [6m] could be worth the premium.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Hogmeister »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 12 Jul 2021, 12:16 The purpose of these summaries is not to be predictive. It's about identifying some possible areas of opportunity that I want to keep an eye on during pre-season and especially in the week before August 13th. I don't expect it to be useful for anyone else; if it is, great but this is just my own notekeeping and it's the start of a process, not the end; I plan to update the posts with additional notes over the next 4 weeks or so.
FWIW Ruth, I think this has been an extremely interesting analysis and have read every word - keep the updates coming! I'll be interested to see to what extent other pundits refer to the risk of Euro players not being available in the early weeks, as the kick-off of the new season approaches. As you say, even if some player choices are a tactical gambit for the first 2-3 weeks, they could still make perfect sense and potentially give you an edge in those first few matches.

This is especially true if you think that there is a possibility/likelihood of being forced into an early WC. Last year I started the season well prepared, planning to hold the WC for a long time... then, after a great first week, I had a disastrous second week and immediately triggered the WC! And I know lots of us were in the same boat. So if you take the view that something like that could easily happen again, your focus should only be on those first few weeks and so (arguably) you should avoid the players you highlight in your posts here.

A really interesting discussion.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Thanks. In my case it's because if I play FPL this season (probably will) then I will certainly BB in GW1. The wildcard might well be GW4, possibly GW8 if it can be managed. I am convinced that GW1-3 will be quite messy with some players late back, transfer window open beyond the GW3 deadline and all the rest, so an early wildcard will be on the cards for many teams, whether planned for or not. Best play 1-3 entirely tactically as far as I can see, and not looking too far forward; certainly not with any consideration of long-term value or the players you might want for the long haul.

To BB in GW1 and have a chance to keep the wildcard until maybe GW8, the cheaper players will be crucial. For example, if there's a suitable 4m GK that will play GW1 (and there are two or three possibles out there) it won't matter much to me if they never play again. That's where the focus of my interest is, anyhow; 4m GKs, 4.5m defenders and sub-5.5m attackers that can help make a good GW1 BB without distorting the structural soundness of the squad too severely. That then relates to which big-name players may miss the start of season, opening spaces for the ones I am after. Hence these notes. :)

PS: In terms of updates, I'll be putting them in the relevant sections (added something about Rashford and Henderson in the United section yesterday); they won't be new posts. So you'll need to keep an eye on the previous page if you want to see what has been added.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Pretty settled that I'll be playing FPL this coming season. So...
  1. If anyone knows of any open cash leagues (trustworthy ones) please send me a PM. Would be happy to do it in-thread but I think FISO frowns on open discussion of cash play.
  2. If anyone needs a 5AS team member, also please send a PM. Will be happy to participate unless Joccki wants to re-create the Compadres, in which case that would be my first preference.
Cheers for any help with these. :)

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Pepe_zys »

Do you consider playing 2x4,5 GK if BB in GW1? I just made my first draft with all 15 players rather nailed on and my bench would be 4,5 GK- 4,5 MID - 4,5 DEF and 4,5 DEF. The only thing I don't really like is 2nd GK cause I usually play with set and forget GK, the other being 4,0

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Yeah I would consider it but there could well be a couple 4.0 GKs playing GW1. Haven't made a draft yet myself, no point until the last week. FFS is full of nonsense RMTs that likely bear no resemblance to what they will actually be doing in a 4 weeks' time.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

GW 1-3 Shenanigans

UPDATE 21 July

Chelsea provide a good example of the 3-week principle and it's now becoming clearer what that means. They flew out to Ireland yesterday for a training camp and still only the early returnees are involved (Mendy, Kepa, Malang Sarr, Zappacosta, Alonso, Barkley, RLC, Gallacher, Pulisic, CHO, Ziyech, Tammy & Broja being the senior names). Some additional players (N'Golo, Zouma, Havertz, Rüdi, Werner, Kovacic) have returned after their 3-week break but won't be in Ireland; they will remain at Cobham for medical and physical checks and will begin their pre-season process there, likely joining up with the active squad next week for the friendly against Bournemouth on 27 July.

This bears out the fact that returning players are behind their colleagues in the pre-season process and will need time to get up to speed. None of the latest returnees were included in my "likely to miss GW1" list and they can probably catch up in time for the Palace game but it remains to be seen whether the 8 players I named as GW1 doubts (Azpilicueta, Jorginho, Emerson, Chilwell, Mount, James, Christensen, Thiago Silva) will be able to do so. My current guess is mostly not. Among those likely to benefit, CHO and Alonso look sharp and fit in the training pictures and I have high hopes for them in GW1. Pulisic and Ziyech are also showing up well in pre-season so far.

I can only imagine that the picture at other clubs will be similar (though some are obviously less affected as dealt with earlier) and will check up on some of them as time passes. Updates will be added here if significant enough (as this one) or added on the previous page in the team-by-team section (same as the previous updates). There is plenty of chatter on FFS, twitter and the youtube channels about GW1 teams for FPL but to my mind it is mostly hot air and generalisation. There just isn't much that can usefully be predicted right now about the early weeks of the season.

Chelsea's camp is at the Carton House Resort just outside Dublin if anyone wants to take a look at the deprivations players undergo in pre-season. :wink:

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Am wanting to gauge interest in a draft cash league. Details can be found here if anyone wants to take a look.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

GW 1-3 Shenanigans

UPDATE 23 July

According to Sports Illustrated both Ederson & Jesus (Copa Final) are expected to miss the Community Shield game a week before the season begins and will only join up full-time with the squad from August 8th. "There are expected to be similar delays for Manchester City's representatives at the European Championships, including the English contingent who reached the final of the tournament against Italy. However players do have the option to return early from their holidays should they wish - and this remains a possibility for some."

First time I have seen outright confirmation of what has been discussed in this thread. As noted earlier, Steffen could be interesting for GW1 and some other City players may benefit as well. But City are the 2nd club that we know is allowing players to return early if they want to (Chelsea the other) and that's probably quite widespread (though apparently not at Liverpool). It is really going to be a matter of information in the last week before the big kick-off.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by TheRumourMill »

Thanks Ruth, this thread is excellent. Between this and the pre season match reports on FFS, most aspects of a GW1 team can be formulated over the next 3 weeks, with the final touches being the press conferences on the Friday before GW1. Completely agree the "team reveals" being banded about on youtube by FFS are just guff and marketing to keep the sponsors and hits on their channel high!

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by TheRumourMill »

Not sure if you had seen this Ruth so posting here as it may affect your gw1 BB.

The telegraph is reporting Kane will miss GW1 after his exploits with England this summer.

The Liverpool correspondent for the Athletic, Jame Pearce, is reporting that Liverpool's likely gw1 centre back pair will be new signing konate and Matip. Vvd and Gomez are still slowly working their way back to fitness.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Yeah, had seen that, thanks. Basically I take it as further confirmation that there will be a number of significant players missing GW1 after Copa and E2020. Haven't done any significant drafting yet and won't till the last week.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by RuudTheDudeVanTheMan »

Telles injured his ankle before United's friendly yesterday and Ole says he'll be out for a few weeks. So with himself and Shaw probably out it means Williams has a good chance of starting vs Leeds in GW1.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

RuudTheDudeVanTheMan wrote:Telles injured his ankle before United's friendly yesterday and Ole says he'll be out for a few weeks. So with himself and Shaw probably out it means Williams has a good chance of starting vs Leeds in GW1.
Thanks, that could be a nice one. Though Leeds isn't the easiest game for a CS maybe.

Just want to reprint this as a reference, it's the PL table from halfway through the season (when TT took over at Chelsea).
RNZ wrote:1. City 15-0-4 45pts, goals 49/18 +31
2. Chelsea 11-5-3 38pts, goals 25/13 +12
3. Liverpool 11-2-6 35pts, goals 31/20 +11
4. United 9-7-3 34pts, goals 37/19 +18
5. Arsenal 10-4-5 34pts, goals 32/20 +12
6. W. Ham 10-3-6 33pts, goals 35/25 +10
7. Leeds 10-3-6 33pts, goals 29/20 +9
8. Leicester 8-4-7 28pts, goals 33/29 +4
9. Spurs 8-2-9 26pts, goals 33/28 +5
10. Newcastle 7-5-7 26pts, goals 28/30 -2

From a Chelsea perspective, the glaring shortfall was in goals scored and more specifically in chance conversion. City's xG over that period was 38.92 but they overshot it by 10 goals; Chelsea's was very close at 35.48 but they undershot it by 10 goals. If TT can correct that it becomes a much closer race next season.

Lower down, it surprised me that Arsenal were so high, my impression was that they had a miserable season in general but clearly they improved a fair bit in the second half. Leeds' 2nd half was even more exceptional than their first, thanks to a much improved defence. And the fact that Newcastle crept into the top 10 also took me by surprise, I knew they had finished stronger but not by that much. Could be a useful table to bear in mind for GW1 next season anyway.

PS: Southampton were stone last with a 4-2-13 record (14 points) and a massive negative goal difference of -23, courtesy of 44 goals conceded in 19 games. Even if you take out the 9-0 they would still have conceded the most.
What I'm interested in right now is defensive potential. Chelsea being best in the period is no surprise. Brighton were actually 2nd-best, both on actual and xG conceded, their problem was an acute shortage of goals. Dunk is a very strong 5m in my view especially with Brighton's early fixtures. Next City & United (also on xGc), again no surprise, though I need to update my thinking a bit about United because they have become more solid (though OGS may revert to one #6 this season rather than a double-6). But then it's Arsenal & Leeds.

Arsenal are a team where my ideas need conscious revision. They became a much better team as the season wore on, especially defensively. Early on they were quite hapless but that appears to have gone by. I think Tierney is a very solid 5m as well and of course White will be a super 4.5m rotator when he arrives. As for Leeds... well, I guess there's a question as to whether we see them back to the wild Leeds of their early PL games or the more patient, structured Leeds of later on. I suspect the latter, though Phillips may not be ready GW1 and that will always be a big miss for them. Fortunately the early fixtures are demanding, so there's time to take a view but a Leeds defender from GW4 could be very beneficial and my small researches into Firpo suggest he could well be worth the 0.5m premium. Leeds players are, in general, colossally under-priced this season because at root they are still priced as a newly-promoted team, which of course they no longer are.

With United, the potential of Williams [4.0] starting GW1 is absolutely not to be sniffed at but their early fixtures are really nice and I'm quite inclined to take a longer-term option like AWB [5.5m]. But maybe both, that's worth considering given a GW1 BB because doing that with an efficient structure going forward is the ideal case.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by blahblah »

I'd check Tierney's injury record...

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by RuudTheDudeVanTheMan »

I'm thinking maybe start with James and Williams as the 4.0 third bench option and then move James to Shaw/AWB in GW2. Booking in early transfers I guess is not wise but it might not be any harm to wait until the GW2 to properly invest in the United defence when the likes of Shaw and Maguire should be back and the tricky Leeds game is out of the way.

In a perfect world you'd have Williams getting a game vs Leeds and then having his loan move to Southampton when Shaw and Telles are back. One to keep an eye on.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

GW 1-3 Shenanigans Update 6 August

A week to go before GW1 so will start reviewing the key teams. City & Leicester will be left until after the Community Shield tomorrow and Chelsea until after the Super Cup next Wednesday so it will be the others first.

LIVERPOOL

Late Return: Allison Fabinho Firmino Thiago (injured?) Henderson
Update: It looks as if Allison will make it and the word is that Fabinho may start GW1 as well given that Liverpool are a bit short in midfield. Firmino may not be ready and a GW1 front-3 of Salah-Jota-Mané is considered most likely. Minamino and Tsimikas are among the fringe players that have done well in pre-season. Still hard to predict what the initial CB pair will be.
Initial Fixtures: nor BUR CHE.

MAN. UTD.

Late Return: DDG Henderson (illness) Fred Shaw Maguire Rashford (surgery) Sancho Bailly (Olympics) Diallo (Olympics) Cavani Pogba Varane
Update: Sancho & Cavani are still to arrive. OGS: "Hopefully they’ll be fit when they come back in. They’re due to come in after the weekend. There are different circumstances as to why they haven’t joined us yet, but it’s a long season and they had to have a little more time off." Varane is still quarantined and yet to have his medical, let alone train with the team.
Rashford is injured so Greenwood-Bruno-Pogba; Martial could well be the front-4 in GW1, though Lingard could also be in contention. Further back, the readiness of Maguire and Shaw can better be assessed after tomorrow's friendly (Everton). Williams will surely get the nod if Shaw is not ready (he has also been recovering from broken ribs) as Telles is injured. Same applies in goal, where neither Henderson nor DDG have featured in pre-season at all so far (Heaton has started every game and is not yet quoted in FPL). Henderson had a painful hip injury, then covid, then "prolonged fatigue" after the infection and missed United's recent training camp. Word is that DDG will start in GW1 and begin the season as 1st-choice.
As an additional observation, OGS has admitted to "overplaying" Bruno last season and has commended the improvement evident in van de Beek. Make of that what you will. It also seems possible that United will be playing more of a 4-3-3 this season, which might well impact Bruno negatively from a FPL point of view, though it partly depends how many penalties United are awarded. :wink:
Initial Fixtures: LEE sou wol.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

GW 1-3 Shenanigans Update 7 August

MAN. CITY

Late Return: Ederson Jesus Laporte Torres Rodri Walker Stones Foden (injured) Sterling Grealish KDB (injured) Zinchenko(?)
Update: Ederson, Jesus, Walker, Stones & Sterling are yet to return to training, they are due to report on Monday 8th. Foden & KDB are injured and won't be ready. That should create openings early in the season but it should be noted that Ferran Torres only returned to training on 4th August and starts the Community Shield on 7th (Rodri also returned on the 4th but is only on the bench today). Perhaps how soon Pep will start the late returnees will depend on individual condition (so this will really need next week's news) but it will likely also be influenced by what options are available; in attack with KDB and Foden out, Sterling and Jesus unavailable, Grealish only fit for the bench and Bernardo possibly leaving, City are definitely short. No surprise to see Torres thrown straight in then.
For me, the matter of most interest concerns Ederson; if he's not considered fit then Steffen will be a solid 4.5m option for GW1. Other than that, Torres could be a nice early pick at 7m if he does well today, though I remain pretty keen on Mahrez. And I stand by my earlier comments that Cancelo & Dias look secure starters in the early games, especially as Laporte is reportedly keen to leave the club.
Initial Fixtures: tot NOR ARS.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by blahblah »

Who are your top Chelsea picks for the start of the season?

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

blahblah wrote:Who are your top Chelsea picks for the start of the season?
Haven't got that far yet.

Chilwell looks good long-term but he may not be ready GW1. Havertz I think will have a big season. Ziyech is a top player and quite under-priced if he's starting. He has been very good pre-season and Chelsea will likely be missing a few so he could be one for the early weeks maybe. Alonso could be a good go for GW1 assuming Chilwell and Emerson aren't ready. Wednesday will tell us more.

Wonder how much Lukaku will be. 10m?

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by blahblah »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 07 Aug 2021, 20:27
blahblah wrote:Who are your top Chelsea picks for the start of the season?
Haven't got that far yet.

Chilwell looks good long-term but he may not be ready GW1. Havertz I think will have a big season. Ziyech is a top player and quite under-priced if he's starting. He has been very good pre-season and Chelsea will likely be missing a few so he could be one for the early weeks maybe. Alonso could be a good go for GW1 assuming Chilwell and Emerson aren't ready. Wednesday will tell us more.
Yeah, pretty much where I am too. I may be down to Azpi and Rudiger over James and Chilwell....


Do you have another LB etc if Alonso goes? (He has been named as a Player Exchange...)

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 07 Aug 2021, 20:27 Wonder how much Lukaku will be. 10m?
Got to be more than that, surely?

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Post by Joccki_10 »

Smurphy's Paw wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote: 07 Aug 2021, 20:27 Wonder how much Lukaku will be. 10m?
Got to be more than that, surely?
Yeah, needs to be at least 11.0m imo. 11.5m would give us a tough decision to make.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Joccki_10 wrote: 07 Aug 2021, 20:56
Smurphy's Paw wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote: 07 Aug 2021, 20:27 Wonder how much Lukaku will be. 10m?
Got to be more than that, surely?
Yeah, needs to be at least 11.0m imo. 11.5m would give us a tough decision to make.
Spot on.
At least the first six are enough of a disincentive & no risks need to be taken straight away

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Smurphy's Paw wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote: Wonder how much Lukaku will be. 10m?
Got to be more than that, surely?
10.5m was my first thought, then remembered Aubameyang is only 10m. Kane was 10.5m last season. They might go higher with Lukaku but I'm not sure it would be justified.

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