R_NZ FPL Blog

[pokeface]

Oh that’s interesting Patrician. I’d be intrigued to see what happens during the course of the season, I haven’t looked at anything too detailed this season, I was only going from the last game which fit into the opinion above.

[pokeface]

Very quick comparison of Auba, Kane and Messi using sample of their last 34 domestic league games (the amount of PL games Auba has participated in),sample size can clearly be an issue.

Auba: Mins: 2714 Shots: 85 Goals: 24 Conv Rate: 28% xG: 22
Kane: Mins: 2843 Shots: 112 Goals:23 Conv Rate: 20,5% xG:19,8
Messi: Mins: 2694 Shots: 160 Goals: 34 Conv Rate: 21,3% xG:21,33

What strikes me (aside from the skill of Messi 34G vs 21.33xG ) here is that Auba has the highest xG from the lowest amount of shots. So his characteristics is different from the other two, he doesn't shoot from distance for example, and he can thereby (maybe) obtain a higher conversation rate.

Again small sample, but the data somewhat suggest what I see with my eye when comparing Auba and Kane (Messi I don't really watch playing). They are different players with different characteristics, but both extremely skilled.

I very much stand corrected then .

[Ruth_NZ]

Aubameyang is one of the best finishers in the world, simple as that for me.

I'm not all that bothered about conversion rates. He scored 2 goals in 3 games at Dortmund and is doing the same at Arsenal. His xG at Arsenal suggests there's no luck in that because it represents a 2-in-3 ratio as well. He is positionally very clever and that's one reason why his xG is so high, because he gets into the right place at the right time. Not like Sterling at all because Aubameyang has the instincts of a striker whereas Sterling is still fundamentally a wide forward.

I agree with FK that he is much less likely to shoot from distance than the other two, especially Messi. But whatever, I am very bullish about him as long as Arsenal have fixtures they can dominate. I think he needs that. He seems a perfect flat-track bully and that's the best kind of captain you can get.

[FranckKessie]

But whatever, I am very bullish about him as long as Arsenal have fixtures they can dominate. I think he needs that. He seems a perfect flat-track bully and that's the best kind of captain you can get.

Fully agree and Auba has incredible home fixtures up to GW28. From there he seems to be a no go. Salah, Kun and Sterling are similar but Kane seems more difficult predict.

[Bobby Fetta]

I won't be getting Salah this week anyway. Brighton at the AMEX are a resilient team and may be able to hold Liverpool to a modest win. I hope so.

Last season Liverpool beat Brighton 5-1 at the Amex, as well as 4-0 at Anfield. (I remember the Amex game fondly because I had a rare differential captain success that day with Coutinho ). Not sure how much weight to give that - maybe Hughton knows what to do better this year, e.g. keeping Liverpool down to 1-0 in the Anfield match earlier this season. But it is making me consider Salah for the captaincy - my alternatives are Hazard and Auba. I also like Hazard as an option because I think he tends to do well against Newcastle (I remember the hattrick in 2014 for similar FPL related reasons).

[Ruth_NZ]

But whatever, I am very bullish about him as long as Arsenal have fixtures they can dominate. I think he needs that. He seems a perfect flat-track bully and that's the best kind of captain you can get.

Fully agree and Auba has incredible home fixtures up to GW28. From there he seems to be a no go. Salah, Kun and Sterling are similar but Kane seems more difficult predict.

Yes, but GW28 is the other side of the GW27 blank and by that time things start to be defined by the GW31-32-33 sequence and how you plan to handle it. I'm not really looking at anything beyond GW30 right now.

[Pirlo's Beard]

He scored 2 goals in 3 games at Dortmund

I could have sworn he played more than three games for Dortmund.

[Ruth_NZ]

Yeah, 144.

[Miketelly]

Stuck on what moves to make at the moment. Would like your advice Ruth. I got 2 FT's and 1.0M in the bank. Obviously would eventually like to get Salah but probably not right at this moment. I'd like to get rid of Patricio and Alli so maybe something like etheridge and Mane or richarlison. Richarlison or someone around his price range will pave an easier way for salah later.




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[Miketelly]

I can do a -4 right now and have exactly enough for the following move:

Out: Patricio/Alli/Sane

In: Guaita/salah/pereyra

Worth it?


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[Ruth_NZ]

Stuck on what moves to make at the moment. Would like your advice Ruth. I got 2 FT's and 1.0M in the bank. Obviously would eventually like to get Salah but probably not right at this moment. I'd like to get rid of Patricio and Alli so maybe something like Etheridge and Mané or Richarlison. Richarlison or someone around his price range will pave an easier way for Salah later.

I can do a -4 right now and have exactly enough for the following move: Patricio/Alli/Sané Guaita/Salah/Pereyra. Worth it?

Well, it's awkward because I quite like your team already and some of the players you are talking about removing I would be inclined to keep. Patricio looks good to me after GW22 and he's someone I might consider bringing in. Alli also looks to have considerable potential and I'd probably tend to keep him until Son returns from Asia Cup. Sané is a player I would very much like to add to my team immediately if it was easy to do, I think he's a great choice until Mendy is fit again.

At the same time, your proposed players in I don't like so much. Mané is just a wasted transfer in my view, it is Salah you want or no-one. Richarlison is OK (I have him) but has 5 games left before he has to go in my opinion. So he'd only be a short-term fix. Etheridge would be out of the question if he hadn't made 3 penalty saves already. I'm sure it must have happened but I can't recall any GK ever making more than 3 in a PL season. Adrian made 3 once but that's the most in my recollection. It's certainly unlikely that Etheridge saves another 3 in the 2nd half of the season anyway.

There are other players that would be attractive but they'd require a re-structuring and I think your structure is fine. So what I'd probably do would be to seek to increase the 1.0m banked to 2.4m or so, so you can do Hazard Salah when the time is right.

An obvious place to start finding money would be Robertson TAA. Robertson is a great asset but I don't see him to be 1.2m better than TAA, not by any means. Another would be by downgrading Digne, who I really don't rate because Everton have such weak CS potential. Duffy would fit your rotation well and save 0.5m but you could also look at Bednarek, a snip at 3.9m and would work in your rotation too; Digne Bednarek would be another way to save 1.2m. And it doesn't seem like much but Murphy Camarasa would save 0.2m and get you a better asset at the same time.

I think I'd be inclined to play around with tweaks like that myself whilst trying to avoid taking even a single hit because your squad looks in good shape to me.

[Miketelly]

I think I'd be inclined to play around with tweaks like that myself whilst trying to avoid taking even a single hit because your squad looks in good shape to me.

Thanks for being my voice of reason and talking me off the "big move" ledge. And for giving my a lil confidence that my team is solid even though my ranking doesn't show it lol. Still plenty of time.

Bringing in TAA for Robertson seems like the move I'll make and maybe roll my other FT. I'll wait until after their game to do it.



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[Nabs Kebabs]

That's 4 greens in a row now

[Ruth_NZ]

No Salah Experiment

I think this is an interesting enough example to keep a short account of it. Essentially, by selling Salah in GW21 I was losing a player that had averaged 11.8 PPG over his previous 5 games and was being talked of in terms of being "essential" on FFS. His ownership had been rising for some weeks and has increased by a further 150k since I let him go. He is currently owned by 42% of all teams and more than 70% in the top 10k. His upcoming fixtures were mci bha CPL LEI whu, so 4 good ones on the face of it after one tough one

So this will be a useful little test of the concept of "essential". Which, in my view, very few players ever are.

Rationale

There was no game-play to this decision really. Essentially I have room for 3 premium attackers in my squad, already had Kane, Aubameyang & Salah and wanted Hazard for SOU NEW ars bou HUD. I wasn't willing to bend the structure out of shape because I think it is good and in any case I don't think more than 3 premiums is beneficial; premium attackers need captaining sometimes in order to justify their price. So one of those three had to go.

The one that most were suggesting was expendable was Aubameyang but I disagreed. He is generally under-valued by FPL managers in my opinion and much less highly owned than Salah, Hazard, Kane in the 10k group. More important, despite not having the best fixtures overall, I saw (see) him as a very good captain option in some upcoming GWs, notably GW21 (9 points and unlucky not to get more), GW22, GW24 and GW26-28. I'm not saying I'll use him as captain 6 times in that period but I'd be surprised if it wasn't 4 times in 8 weeks. So he was/is staying; I consider him as my "ace in the hole".

It was much closer between Kane and Salah but the immediate fixtures are/were slightly better for Kane and I also saw him as my preferred captain in GW23. In addition, it would have required a re-structure and a hit to get Hazard that way and likely another one at the other end when getting Salah back. I am quite keen on my 2 premium striker approach; the players aren't 'differential' but the structure is.

Another reason for losing Salah was his fixtures (mentioned above). Away at City in GW21 made it easy for that week but looking ahead to bha CPL LEI I could see 3 teams that can defend. It's not that I expect them to beat Liverpool; far from it. It's more a matter of whether Liverpool score 1-2 goals in each of those games or 4-6. The fewer goals the less potential for a Salah haul and that's the crux of it; if a player like Salah gets 8 PPG when not in your team you have to be happy. It's the widely-captained hauls that are the danger.

The final reason was the fact that Salah's recent xG (and FPL points) has been inflated by 2 penalties, which he probably doesn't take if Milner is on the pitch. So points recently scored may not be the best guide about what happens next. Not to say that Salah's form is doubtful, of course. It isn't. I had to think long and hard before making the change and am still not sure how it will come out. The fall-back is that it can be reversed at any time, at the expense of one hit at most. But all being well he'll not return to my team until GW25 or GW26.

Measurement

The way I will measure this is as a total of 2 factors. One, obviously, is Hazard v Salah; a plain tally of their points in the GW21-25 period. The other is whoever I captain v Salah from GW22-25. I won't include GW21 in that because few would have captained Salah that week (Hazard was the most popular choice). So I will be making the measurement against the idea of someone perma-captaining Salah for those 4 weeks, an idea which is surely not far-fetched. Doubtless someone will comment after the event with hindsight (as has happened before, but after the record had disappeared) and show how he is/was clever enough to successfully captain Salah when he hauled and not when he didn't. But that's OK.

It's not quite as simple as that, of course. Aubameyang is still in my squad where he might not be, so I could equally well compare Aubameyang's points with Salah's. It's also true that the 2m saved will be used in the meantime and will hopefully deliver some value to help me; on the other hand, when getting Salah back it will likely cost me 0.2m or 0.3m more than I sold him for. But I'm not going to over-complicate matters by trying to calculate those factors, I'd rather keep it simple. So...

GW21 Hazard 3pts v Salah 2pts; Captaincy N/A; Total +1.

Be interesting to see how it goes.

[hancockjr]

Assuming you will go back to Salah afterwards you should knock off some points from your surplus for the transfers used (you could have used the transfers elsewhere) - maybe 6 points (2x3)? Should probably be 8 points if you end up taking a hit over the period.

[Ruth_NZ]

If I had needed the transfers and thought hits would be required then I wouldn't have done it but I am very happy with the state of my squad overall. As it stands I'd only expect to need a hit if I get Salah back early.

Injuries could intervene, of course, but there's no telling when/if that may occur.

[dod]

I am in agreement with your short term Salahless approach. GW 25 & 26 look more risky though. I'm wondering then whether to get Salah in or take the less disruptive route of an *eurrgh* "coverage" play by bringing in Mane. Salah exploded against BOU with 21 pts and got 8 in the reverse fixture against WHM. Mane only had a 1 pt cameo vs BOU but got 16 pts against the Hammers.

[Ruth_NZ]

He'll be back for me in GW26, that's pretty certain. GW25 whu is the one that would concern me most but Hazard has HUD that week and I'd have to hope he can equal or better Salah's points. If I don't think so when we get there then I'll bring Salah back in GW25.

No, I wouldn't go near Mané myself. Firmino maybe, but not to 'cover' Salah, just because he is a decent pick at his price based on his recent performances.

For me, another big factor in all this is Kane. I am itching to get rid of him but want to time it right. Whether I end up losing Kane or Hazard to get Salah back will probably depend in part on which of those two teams reach the CC Final and have a blank in GW27.

[Smurphy Paw]

Coverage. Eurgh indeed. I’ve been stung by Mané, having presumed (& not that I blame him but been somewhat been influenced by our host) that Mané would match Salah. One game in half a dozen, yes. Surely you’re better looking at a complete differential over Mané for coverage reasons (especially as you’re not going to win the whole thing with a Mané move for coverage!)?

As for Salahless Salahness:
Last year one could say that you ran this same experiment (without keeping count!). This year the price points make it a more balanced discussion.
Ruth, you commented on my recent rankings gains. It was by being more radical than choosing which three of four +£10M players. I can see reasonable arguments for including each of them. On one occasion or another the 4th of 4 will score heavily. We know that in such a situation I tend to favour Salah where often you don’t. What I would say is that I fear Hazard’s hauls less because they are less predictable.
Last year I was pretty confident about the way it would go. This year, not so much. Anyway, good luck.

(FWIW I’m going with Aguero as my differential +£10m player over the next three then reassessing)

[Ruth_NZ]

We know that in such a situation I tend to favour Salah where often you don’t. What I would say is that I fear Hazard’s hauls less because they are less predictable.

Well, don't know if that is true? Salah was in my team from GW1-20 after all and that included holding him through a pair of price drops to 12.8m.

This was a hard decision and I thought about it every which way really. I considered foregoing Hazard and also losing Kane or Aubameyang instead of Salah. So I wasn't really itching to get rid of Salah to be honest. It just looked marginally best on balance and when that's the case I'm happy to take the high risk/reward route (what Dod calls encouraging volatility I think).

Where we perhaps differ a bit is that I am reluctant to sit on my hands making safety plays. Not to say that you are a safety player but I probably chafe a bit earlier than some do when taking that approach.

[Smurphy Paw]

We know that in such a situation I tend to favour Salah where often you don’t. What I would say is that I fear Hazard’s hauls less because they are less predictable.

Well, don't know if that is true? Salah was in my team from GW1-20 after all and that included holding him through a pair of price drops to 12.8m.

This was a hard decision and I thought about it every which way really. I considered foregoing Hazard and also losing Kane or Aubameyang instead of Salah. So I wasn't really itching to get rid of Salah to be honest. It just looked marginally best on balance and when that's the case I'm happy to take the high risk/reward route (what Dod calls encouraging volatility I think).

Where we perhaps differ a bit is that I am reluctant to sit on my hands making safety plays. Not to say that you are a safety player but I probably chafe a bit earlier than some do when taking that approach.

I know where you’re coming from about you but perhaps that’s a bit over simplistic given, for example, our comments tonight about not/increasing volatility around the BGWs, and my current structure being much less typical than most (although many are now getting in ‘my’ players so that’s a time limited assertion).
Ironically where you are right is that you held on to Salah more than I did thus far. It was an uncomfortable experience, I can tell you

[Turd Ferguson]

As for Salahless Salahness:
Last year one could say that you ran this same experiment (without keeping count!).

I was thinking the same. If it goes south, we'll have to rename him Ahab_NZ

My transfer planning for the last few weeks has been all about getting Salah in for GW23 to captain him, but taking a look at the defensive performance of the teams gives me pause. Over the past 8 games, Brighton, Palace, and Leicester have all been in the top 7 for xGA. Palace are third best in the league! Plus Hodgson and Puel are the types who will play sensibly and try to shut up shop against a great attack. Palace pulled it off against City.

Chart filtered by date since end of November, and sorted by lowest xGA.

Defensive Form.PNG

West Ham have been below average all season, and Bournemouth have actually been the worst defence in the league for the last several weeks, so those are two plum fixtures in GW25/26 where I don't think you can ignore Salah. You might be able to just get away without him for the next three weeks though. I'm waiting to see what happens this weekend before I decide. It will be tough. This is one of those times where I almost hope for an injury to a significant player just to narrow the options and make the decision easier. A knock for Kane that kept him out for a couple of games wouldn't be the worst thing in the world right now.

[Turd Ferguson]

Another thing to note is that Chelsea have quietly (at least for me, as someone who rarely watches them) become a contender for best defence in the league. David Luiz and Rudiger need some consideration depending how blanks and doubles play out.

[Smurphy Paw]

Regarding Chelsea, it’s one reason why I have not yet ditched Alonso. With unlimited transfers I would, but there’s always something else and he keeps racking up the points even if vfm is a concern.

As for Salah and Ruth, I was only trying to help but it got a bit tetchy last year and I’m not leading that charge again! This year there is, I believe, a stronger justification

[Ruth_NZ]

My transfer planning for the last few weeks has been all about getting Salah in for GW23 to captain him, but taking a look at the defensive performance of the teams gives me pause. Over the past 8 games, Brighton, Palace, and Leicester have all been in the top 7 for xGA. Palace are third best in the league! Plus Hodgson and Puel are the types who will play sensibly and try to shut up shop against a great attack. Palace pulled it off against City.

West Ham have been below average all season, and Bournemouth have actually been the worst defence in the league for the last several weeks, so those are two plum fixtures in GW25/26 where I don't think you can ignore Salah. You might be able to just get away without him for the next three weeks though. I'm waiting to see what happens this weekend before I decide. It will be tough. This is one of those times where I almost hope for an injury to a significant player just to narrow the options and make the decision easier. A knock for Kane that kept him out for a couple of games wouldn't be the worst thing in the world right now.

Yes, that was all in my thinking. Team defensive stats are one of the things I keep a close eye on and I tend to give them a fair deal of weight.

For me, the key factor will be the CC SF 2nd leg, which happens in GW23. That's going to tell me which of Hazard/Kane will be leaving to accommodate Salah back. I'd like him for GW25 but if it is Hazard to leave it may be GW26 because Hazard's GW25 fixture is also a stonker. If Kane is to go then it will likely be in GW25 so Salah can be back for the West Ham game..

Another thing to note is that Chelsea have quietly (at least for me, as someone who rarely watches them) become a contender for best defence in the league. David Luiz and Rudiger need some consideration depending how blanks and doubles play out.

Yes, Chelsea's midfield is functioning more as Sarri wants it now and it all depends on that. I have Rüdiger (who I bought at 5.9m) and think he is better value than Alonso, whose place has to be in some question I'd have thought. There is definitely a groundswell of opinion around Chelsea right now that Palmieri deserves a run. I don't know what to do with Rüdiger after this week, though, because Chelsea have some tricky upcoming fixtures where the CS looks less likely. Either I keep him and bench him for the tougher games or switch him for a 2nd Liverpool defender like VVD or Gomez. That's an open decision for me.

[Ruth_NZ]

As for Salahless Salahness:
Last year one could say that you ran this same experiment (without keeping count!).

I was thinking the same. If it goes south, we'll have to rename him Ahab_NZ.

Obsessed with Mo(by)-Salah you mean?

"Towards thee I roll, thou all-destroying but unconquering whale; to the last I grapple with thee; from hell's heart I stab at thee; for hate's sake I spit my last breath at thee."

SP is right, I didn't keep count last year. But my misplay of Salah must have cost me 100 points or more I'd have thought.

[dod]

I don't think you can compare going Salahless last season with this. This season he is about to cost 13.4m. Last season he was nearly 4m cheaper. You can do a lot with that extra cash.

[Ruth_NZ]

No Salah Experiment GW22

The difficult factor for me this week has been who to captain. I consider it a very close call between Aubameyang & Hazard.

In the end, having been settled on Aubameyang for most of the week, I have decided to go with Hazard. There are two reasons why. First is the news of how depleted Newcastle are and how they will be forced to use players that may not be 100% fit. At the same time, Chelsea have Pedro, Willian & Giroud back and all played a part in the midweek game. I think that edges things towards Hazard a bit more. An early Chelsea goal would be nice.

The other is the ownership factor. Hazard will be a popular captain in the 10k group and will probably have an EO in excess of 100%. If I don't captain him I will end up watching the 5:30 game knowing that essentially his points aren't making a difference for me. Aubameyang is much lower owned and won't have an EO above 50%, so his points will be a big help anyway. I'd rather be benefiting from each of them rather than having all my eggs in one basket, even if Aubameyang looks like a good basket to me. If it weren't so close between them in my mind I'd just go for the one I thought best but on this occasion I'm going to cover both bases and limit the variance.

Essentially, I have created 'volatility' (to use Dod's term) already by losing Salah. So I'd rather have as many ways to make that pay off as possible. Of course, it is quite possible that Aubameyang & Hazard get very similar points, in which case this will make no difference. But this way I will gain some advantage if either one of them hauls.

[Striker]

Ruth - I guess that whenever you put a bet on a horse you always write E-W after the horse's name.

[hancockjr]

When looking at defensive stats over a shortened period don't you need to adjust for the difficulty of the fixtures?

Re. Aubameyang v Hazard, I looked at bookmaker's odds and Hazard was almost the same as Auba to score. Coupled with being a mid (extra point per goal, clean sheet potential) and at least equal assist chance (probably better) it was an easy decision from there. Assuming the bookies have it right.