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dod
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by dod »

I don't think there's much in it over those matches so you should decide on the fixtures after that. On that basis I'd go for A unless a wildcard will make that factor irrelevant.

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Archy
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Archy »

Joccki_10 wrote: 27 Mar 2019, 07:22
Ruth_NZ wrote:So, how about this one? Which is best 32-33?

A. Kepa car BHA, WHU & Tomkins HUD tot, new -8
B. Fabianski EVE, che & Bacuna cry - & Maguire - hud

That one looks suspiciously like the -8 would be worthwhile, doesn't it?
Will be very close I reckon. It really depends on the occasional clean sheet for mid-table teams and those are unpredictable. I’d say A has a small advantage.
I know you’re not the biggest fan of points projections Ruth, but i think they have some merit, so here goes (per FFS):

A
Kepa 8.4, 4.1
Tomkins 5.7, 2.8

Total 20.5 points, less 8 point hit = 12.5

B
Fabianski 4.8
Bacuna 1.1 (looks low, assuming he plays could revise to 2)
Maguire 3.8

Total 9.1 points (or 10 points adjusted)


So A is indeed the winner :)

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Smurphy's Paw wrote: Whilst I don’t disagree (it’s close) is this the part of your team where a -8 is best spent?
I'm not saying it is. :)

As far as I am concerned the assessment of this is irrespective of any other hit or hits I may take. I will already be -4 (probably). This would make -12. But that's really not relevant to the comparison other than in one respect: if I identify 5 hits that I think are worth taking then I would really be in FH or WC territory, despite the loss of the GW32 TC.

dod wrote: I don't think there's much in it over those matches so you should decide on the fixtures after that. On that basis I'd go for A unless a wildcard will make that factor irrelevant.
It would be. If I play GW32 normally then I will certainly either FH or WC in GW34.

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Smurphy Paw
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Interesting
I’d put the threshold slightly lower
This week is the best bet for the TC. Is 20 a reasonable guesstimate for an Aguero Captaincy? It’s higher than the average TC score last year and higher than the score predictions that I have seen so would presumably constitute success?
In GW35 it’ll probably be lower. Kane looks to be as good a bet as any. The City game looks difficult although the type that Kane enjoys, the Brighton game at home attractive. A goal and assist is possible that week but to emphasise the difference, let’s say Kane scores 10 across the two games?
So, your net difference is also 10 points.
As soon as you make more than two transfers for hits it looks to me as if you could be ‘in the red’

I’m not unaware of or ignoring a number of caveats. The key point is that this presumes that you captain the same player you’d TC, isolating the difference in uplift of one further score in each chosen GW

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Billy Bongo
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Billy Bongo »

A on a nats cock

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Smurphy's Paw wrote:...I’m not unaware of or ignoring a number of caveats. The key point is that this presumes that you captain the same player you’d TC, isolating the difference in uplift of one further score in each chosen GW.
It's really not as simple as that, though I don't want to go far into it because WC32 and FH32 are still options for me, they weren't excluded. But it isn't only about TC32 v TC35, it's also about FH32 v FH34.

I think that there may be terrible weeping and wailing when GW34 comes around because people will suddenly realise that they have no idea what players will be starting for key teams, sandwiched as it is between the CL & EL QF games. Or even worse, that players they really want for GW35 are at significant risk of not starting in GW34. I mentioned this above (review of the CL/EL draws on the last page) but I don't think anyone is taking it very seriously yet. In addition, GW34 is a DGW for 2 teams - Brighton & Cardiff - and a very nice one too. WC34 managers aren't going to want to focus on those teams (Brighton have an awful DGW35 and Cardiff even worse); they will (mostly) be setting up for GW35 (and in many cases a BB in GW35). Put all that together - the DGW opportunity and the opportunity to tailor a team around likely rotation at United, Chelsea, City, Spurs etc. - and I think there could be a very significant gain to be made from a FH34.

So it's not all about the TC. But that's as much as I want to say really, the multiple-choice questions are helpful to me and I am grateful to those offering a view.

PS to BillyB: on a nat's cock means it's good, right? Must be some kind of Lancashire phraseology. :lol:

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Billy Bongo »

Means it's a very small difference between the two

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Sutter Kane »

Girth or length? I think girth of a gnat's penis. I like it. Not a lot. But I like it.

As for GW34 WC, I think everyone will get Ryan. Then it's perhaps Duffy who is a nice pick as he offers a goal threat even in a tough GW35 double, though perhaps wouldn't have to play him if not BB that week. Other than that, not sure I'd venture any more of those two teams. Could well be a tough week for rotation though we'll be somewhat armed with information about likely results of European games by then.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 27 Mar 2019, 19:15
Smurphy's Paw wrote:...I’m not unaware of or ignoring a number of caveats. The key point is that this presumes that you captain the same player you’d TC, isolating the difference in uplift of one further score in each chosen GW.
It's really not as simple as that, though I don't want to go far into it because WC32 and FH32 are still options for me, they weren't excluded. But it isn't only about TC32 v TC35, it's also about FH32 v FH34.


PS to BillyB: on a nat's cock means it's good, right? Must be some kind of Lancashire phraseology. :lol:
Yes, we agree. In the same spirit as your stripped down comparisons I omitted all that
Good luck

Not only Lancashire. My side of the Pennines too

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Thanks, SP. I wasn't sure whether the FH34 comparison was one of your caveats.

I am kind of thinking, the FH is supposed to be better than the TC. So if my TC can compensate for the FH32 and leave the FH available for 34 then I am ahead, no? Though it all depends on your assessment of GW34 of course.

It looks more likely that I may wildcard this week than use the FH actually. In that case it would be WC32 FH34 TC35. But I still don't like the GW35 TC options really, not at all. I don't think -12 is too many this week because I believe that every manager will be taking hits between now and GW35 one way or another, either that or they will be fielding a weak team in one or more weeks.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Two or three things FWthey’reW
I think that FH34 is a bad idea. Kind of like TMs deal. Not brave in any direction apart from the bravery of backing an option that is less bold than others.
Don’t presume that others are ignoring the stuff I snipped when I quoted your 7.15 post (or don’t make that presumption about those you’re competing with. I doubt you’re/we’re too fussed about the others in terms of either opinions or rankings)
We learned our lesson last year. It’s not my job to talk you out of TCing whichever week you choose to. I place less value in it in any specifc GW, as I illustrate above. I’ve been careful this year to avoid steering you but if you do want my honest view let’s do that by PM

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dod
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by dod »

For me the FH is by far the most powerful chip especially if used to fix a GW that comes between GWs that you are well prepared for. Last season the best use was probably in the BGW between the 2 DGWs. This season it was easy to set up for the 2 BGWs and use the FH this DGW. I commend anyone who found an alternative but this seemed the obvious choice.

I remember last season Ruth that you railed against using the 2nd wildcard to set up a minor chip - the BB - and I think that you are right in this opinion. By the same token I would argue that the FH is a more powerful chip than the wildcard and using it non-optimally just to accommodate the TC chip is a waste.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

The wildcard is more valuable than the FH in my view, and by quite a bit. Agree with Dod about not deploying the FH to serve the TC but don't see it as being that simple, as I tried to explain above. Essentially, we are in GW32, we each have whatever chips we have left and we need to try to figure out what will give us the most points (or the biggest potential, or the safest route, depends what we are after) between now and the end of season. And that means looking at other weeks than just GW32. What can the FH give you in 32, 34, 35..? What can the TC give you in 32, 35, 36..? When is the best to use the wildcard in combination with the others in a way that sets up everything that follows until the end of the season..? And same for the BB, of course, if you still have it.

I have been involved in other things and haven't had a lot of time. Being at 170k influences that as well because there's a sense that I just can't be bothered to calculate it all. But this afternoon I have made some time for a deeper look at my options.
  1. WC32 FH34 was my first point of call but I decided that it is too forced. In particular, to use the WC at any time before GW35 itself makes difficulties, especially with teams like Watford & Wolves. Also, the GW32 WC is too compromised by needing to play GW33 naturally. So that's a no go for me.
  2. WC32 FH33 looks much more attractive and has the considerable advantage that you can immediately lose all Liverpool players and release the budget. But it also has underlying problems because of the Watford/Wolves issue and it also makes Arsenal hard to deal with in a satisfactory way (and they will be a very important team in GW35). It was close but what swings me against it is that (a) it forces the TC away from GW32, and (b) it would still mean taking, if I am honest, probably 2 hits at least in GW34/5, maybe 3. So that was close but no cigar.
  3. FH32 is the obvious route that some others think I should take (but not my mate Joccki, I'm pleased to say :)) and I have looked at it closely too. I will put my FH team for GW32 below to show what I'd do if I were deploying it. But although I could field 11 in GW33 it wouldn't by any means be an ideal XI and I'm sure I'd take at least 1 hit that week, perhaps two. And then I'd have to wildcard in GW34 (a week earlier than I'd prefer) and the need to make that team with GW35-38 in mind (especially GW35) would mean compromising GW34 at the very least (and it will be worse for those intending to BB35 I think unless their BB consists of very cheap doublers - Ryan, Bednarek, Jonny, Stephens or something like that)). I see GW34 to be a good opportunity to make gains and that wildcarding that week may actually work against doing that. And then of course, the TC gets shoved into GW35 where it is less well-placed. Overall I don't like it and have decided against it.
  4. In passing, I think what my analysis has shown me is that it will be very difficult to optimise GW32-33 and to optimise GW34-35. I can't see many managers getting through without some hits and/or poor weeks unless they are very lucky.
  5. So that brings me back to what I have been playing with for some weeks: TC32, FH34, WC35. It will probably mean 4 hits in 32-33 but after that it will be plain sailing, FH34 will be a big advantage I think and then WC35 will enable me to optimise that week and set up 35-38 with full knowledge about which teams have reached the SF stage in Europe and what that portends. And it looks as if that's what I shall do. :)
My GW32 FH Team (that will not be used):

Ryan
Lindelöf Rüdiger Laporte
Sterling(c) Kante Pogba Hazard
Batshuayi Kane Aguero


I will post my actual GW32 team here when I have finalised it, just for sake of comparison. Essentially what I have been doing this afternoon is deciding on the route I will take.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Billy Bongo »

You obviously feel Rudiger has a better chance of playing both than Luiz?

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Billy Bongo wrote: You obviously feel Rudiger has a better chance of playing both than Luiz?
Yes, although it's also partly because I already have Rüdiger as well. I am pretty sure Luiz will miss one of the next 3 games though it could equally be GW33 against West Ham. It partly depends what kind of team Sarri wants to put out against Praha. Rüdiger is much younger and only played once for Germany, a week ago now. I think he might well start all three, he has been rested 3 times to 7 for Luiz since October. But it's marginal probabilities rather than certainty, BB.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Billy Bongo »

Excellent detail

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

OK, all set. I have taken a -12 and will be fielding this team in GW32:

Kepa
Tomkins Rüdiger
Robertson
Sterling(TC) Bacuna Maddison Pogba Hazard
Vardy Aguero

Button TAA Diop Kamara & 1.0m

DGW

I'm happy with that, the essential DGW players are there and I also like my SGW players, especially the Leicester ones. Bacuna is obviously a bit of a makeweight but who knows, he did well last week. I could have afforded Lindelöf instead of Tomkins and I really rate Lindelöf this week but he has no GW33 and in addition, that 1m will be necessary to enable Kamara :arrow: Wilson in GW33. If I had taken Lindelöf it would have had to be Barnes instead. Same goes with Ederson, I could have afforded him over Kepa but that would leave me without a GK in GW33 and I don't at all mind the Chelsea double instead.

I am hoping that the TC compensates for the hits taken and that I can come out in front, however slightly. The route I have chosen should be very strong from GW34-37 and that's when the payback will hopefully come.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by dod »

While we differ on the relative strengths of the FH vs Wildcard I won't join the clamour for you to use the FH chip this GW. You have a plan and the beauty of the GW32 FH is that you could set your team up for a strong BGW31 & BGW33. You didn't choose this route so it makes no sense in trying to change horses in mid-stream.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

dod wrote: You didn't choose this route so it makes no sense in trying to change horses in mid-stream.
Actually I did, I identified it early in the season and prepared my team for it. As I said, I could field 11 in GW33 after a FH this week. But as the detail has emerged over the last weeks, I have come to the idea that there may be a better way to do it.

Anyway, I only like doing stuff that isn't popular. That's the nature of us fops and dandies. :wink:

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by dod »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 30 Mar 2019, 01:19
dod wrote: You didn't choose this route so it makes no sense in trying to change horses in mid-stream.
Actually I did, I identified it early in the season and prepared my team for it. As I said, I could field 11 in GW33 after a FH this week. But as the detail has emerged over the last weeks, I have come to the idea that there may be a better way to do it.

Anyway, I only like doing stuff that isn't popular. That's the nature of us fops and dandies. :wink:
:lol: :lol: :lol:

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R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Miketelly »

Ryan
Lindelöf Rüdiger Laporte
Sterling(c) Kante Pogba Hazard
Batshuayi Kane Aguero


I will post my actual GW32 team here when I have finalised it, just for sake of comparison. Essentially what I have been doing this afternoon is deciding on the route I will take.
You reckon Batshuayi over Zaha this week? Have Zaha penciled in right now. Pressers today didn't help much.

Also do you think van Aanholt is the better pick over Schlupp? I can make him work if needed to.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Batsman over Zaha for sure, he is a born finisher and Zaha isn't. Schlupp rather than PvA, more likely to start both. Woy has realised what a defensive liability van Aanholt is.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Smurphy Paw »

dod wrote: 30 Mar 2019, 01:40
Ruth_NZ wrote: 30 Mar 2019, 01:19
dod wrote: You didn't choose this route so it makes no sense in trying to change horses in mid-stream.
Actually I did, I identified it early in the season and prepared my team for it. As I said, I could field 11 in GW33 after a FH this week. But as the detail has emerged over the last weeks, I have come to the idea that there may be a better way to do it.

Anyway, I only like doing stuff that isn't popular. That's the nature of us fops and dandies. :wink:
:lol: :lol: :lol:
So you’re not going to Free Hit this week then?

(Don’t answer that - or at least not politely :lol: )

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Well, I wasn't going to. Unless you think I should?

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Nah. Last year I went against the grain and held firm against the brickbats. It worked out well for me. This year it’s not worked out that way.

I’m more interested in the choice of Sterling not Aguero to be honest. Are you maximising variance or something else?

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Smurphy's Paw wrote: Nah. Last year I went against the grain and held firm against the brickbats. It worked out well for me. This year it’s not worked out that way.
I’m more interested in the choice of Sterling not Aguero to be honest. Are you maximising variance or something else?
Something else. I think Sterling is a better FPL asset and can't get into second-guessing which plays more minutes because no-one knows. Both players probably start twice.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

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Tumbleweed.jpg

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ »

I will just say this...

Camarasa was my captain in GW34. Against Burnley, Cardiff had 3 strong penalty claims, one of which was actually awarded and the decision then reversed. Camarasa is Cardiff's penalty taker. He managed 7 points for the GW but it could, and probably should have been so much better. :(

Had Palace had those penalty shouts they'd have doubtless been awarded all three, giving Milivojevic a hat-trick. :wink: :roll:

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Sutter Kane »

Yeah I had Camarasa too. It's those calls that can make a big difference, especially as captain. No-one really selected Camarasa because they wanted to BB35. Could have got 9 in the first game and got 6 in that one, you'd have been sitting on 30 points for him.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by ragamuffin »

Was a great shout Ruth and Morrison pick :O

Just a kind of off topic question – I remember you saying on this blog last season I think that top 10K was easy to achieve. Do you think this is still the case as with all the influx of spoon fed info via social media etc? It is evident more ‘casuals’ are taking the game seriously and using the chips around dgw’s isn’t giving the same rank boost as a few seasons ago.

Is top 50k the new top 10kf for example or do the ‘hardcore’ players still hold the advantage?

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