The sections of my recent diary that concern my team decisions seem to be yesterday's news. This section, however, seems interesting enough to post.
DIARY 5/10 to 11/10
Holding Your Ground -
1. "Analytical" 5 Oct
Kirsty McColl wrote:There's a guy works down the chip shop, swears he's Elvis...
But he's a liar and I'm not sure about you.
There's also a guy on FFS that has just taken a triple-hit to do Mendy, Williams, Gallacher, Lukaku, Ronaldo
Raya, Cancelo, Son, Vardy, DCL.
He says:
"I had 42 points this week so wanted to turn up the heat with some bold moves. Happy to be rid of Lukaku and Ronaldo, who have given me 15 points over the last 3 GW's. Very happy with my team now and do not expect to take hits for many weeks to come". 
Well, ain't that a doozy? But it's a perfect, if extreme example of the kind of reactive pressure that can come upon a FPL manager after a couple of poor weeks. After GW3 my team was ranked 16k; now, 4 weeks later, it is 258k and under threat of relegation in the Divisionals. My Compadres team-mate Joccki has scored 46 points more than me over those 4 weeks and has gone from 10 points behind to 36 points ahead. It's enough to test the patience of a saint, as my mother used to say, and could easily persuade me that I have made bad mistakes or that my team is 'wrong'. Time for some comparative analysis, then.
In GW4 it was Lukaku/Ronaldo week. I had neither and they both hauled. Mistake? No. I was aware of the risk because both had good fixtures but wasn't keen on what followed, correctly as it turned out - Lukaku has had 6 points GW5-7 and Ronaldo 9. In GW5 we both wildcarded and I actually made some ground back; the gap between us was 3 points after that week. But two underlying factors played against me at that point; one was a GW5 injury to Bamford which knocked him out of GW6-7 as it turned out (wasn't immediately clear) and the other was my choice of Traoré over Saka. Traoré promptly lost his place and has scored 4 points GW5-7 while Saka has come on strong with 22 points over the same period. Mistakes? Well, the Bamford one wasn't, that was just unlucky. The Traoré/Saka one maybe was (for reasons already given) and it accounts for half of the current gap between our teams.
In GW6 Saka was the only significant difference. And in GW7 Joccki made 2 successful transfers, removing Ronaldo and TAA for Azpilicueta and Jimenez whereas I added Lukaku and Aubameyang. Mistakes on my part? Don't think so really. Jimenez was the obvious Bamford replacement but my team already had 3 Wolves (thanks to the ever-giving gift of Traoré, now finding innovative, new ways to punish me) and a defender transfer was no priority for me with Bamford requiring to be replaced. So, essentially those two factors from the GW5 wildcard - taking Traoré over Saka and Bamford over Raphinha (in a slightly different structure) have been responsible for a net negative swing of 33 points over the last 2 weeks.
It can be hard to take when you invest a lot of time in FPL only to see your team go backwards, especially when it's a nasty swing like this one has been. It can cause all kinds of reactive pressure and the feeling that you need to
do something to arrest the slide. That's why some analysis is needed at those times. Maybe it's true, you have chosen players unwisely and need to fix it before it gets worse. But maybe bad luck has been a major factor. In my case, I have accepted that Traoré was a mistake that needs fixing and I will do so. For the rest I see little wrong.
Holding Your Ground -
2. "Positional" 6 Oct
So, let me pick up on that last statement. For a competent manager, 'wrong' likely means one of the following:
- Structurally wrong: your squad is either too inefficient or too inflexible or too pared-down (too many cheap or non-playing options), too premium-focused to deliver value or too amorphous. I wouldn't make absolute rules about structure (though it would be fairly easy to describe some key principles) because circumstances vary but for an experienced manager it's a matter of checking that you know clearly why you have your current structure, especially if it diverges from your normal principles in some way.
- Wrong players: too many risky or 'hail Mary' picks, too many out of form or too expensive or with poor upcoming prospects.
- Too conformist: so many high-owned (template) choices that it will be difficult to either make much ground or lose much. Some would consider this desirable but I don't.
For the purposes of this segment I will focus on #2. Structurally I am satisfied with what I have done, it is a little stretched out at the moment but I know why; meanwhile it would be so unusual for me to have an overly-conformist team that if I did it would mean that I genuinely thought that the best available constellation of players. So, this will be about "wrong players".
Now, the crass definition of that in terms of points scored in recent weeks can obviously be dismissed out of hand. Recent weeks can't be re-played and the only concern is what will happen from now. For example, Sarr going into GW5 had averaged 3.75 ppg so far (nothing at all special) and his underlying stats were nothing special either. Nothing to indicate that he'd average 8.33 ppg over the next 3 weeks
other than the fact that Watford were facing the 3 weakest defences in the PL in succession. If there was a mistake in not having him, it was in failing to sufficiently weight those fixtures in advance and that is all. And he's no more a good choice now (on the basis of 8.33 ppg) than he was a bad choice based on 3.75 ppg. Recent points are largely irrelevant unless there's good reason to expect them to repeat.
This is where track record comes in, sometimes referred to in terms of the underlying 'class' or profile of the player. For example, if I made a mistake with Traoré it was in ignoring the fact that for all his other attributes he has never consistently shown end product (goals/assists) and in being too swayed by underlying stats (which were very good at that time). It's a mistake I don't often make but did in this instance. Track record doesn't tell the whole story either, of course. Circumstances can change for a player; maybe they get deployed differently by their manager, as with Doucouré this season, or they may be improving or regressing. And underlying stats can be useful too, though ideally over something more than a handful of weeks.
As any regular reader of these musings will know, I am rather in favour of patience in FPL, of giving the players you have selected (and thus your own decisions) time to deliver. The recent excellent performance of Stena Bib's ghost team (266 points over the last 4 GWs compared to my 198 and Joccki's 244) bears this out entirely. Clearly if you jerk around too much, the one thing guaranteed is to spend points in hits. But that does require a fair and somewhat rigorous analysis to separate poor outcomes from poor decisions, coupled with a willingness to recognise and correct your mistakes when you have made them.
If I look at my own team I see few mistakes, as was said in Part 1. DDG is a different GK but I know why he's there and don't consider that story to be conclusive. He certainly has the 'class' factor, having beaten 140 points multiple times, with a season-best 172 in 2017/18. The main question with him was whether his place was at risk; I didn't think so and still don't. Most would now agree with that. I consider myself to have been rather unlucky with his points thus far and am not willing to end the experiment, especially as there's no stand-out replacement anyway. Patience with him.
The double Wolves defence was structurally ill-advised when combined with Traoré but was only intended as a short-term solution. Semedo is the 2nd player on my 'out' list (for Laporte or Cancelo). Traoré was a mistake (already covered) and will be the next to leave. Jota is well capable (and overdue) of scoring good points; he can leave but there's no rush. And then there's Aubameyang, another one that certainly has the 'class' factor and is well capable of a prolific run of points if I have timed it right. Maybe he was a somewhat risky pick when he was brought in but that decision, once made, needs time to play out as well. Patience with him too, then.
It could be argued that having Aubameyang is unbalancing my squad (resulting in the defence/midfield being too pared-down) but that was actually one of the reasons I took him. One of the weaknesses in my wildcard structure was only having one slot for a 6-6.5m attacker when that price bracket is doing so well and offering such value. If Jota were switched to Raphinha or Barnes (say) and Traoré to Mbeumo or Gallacher (say) it would release more than enough funds for a defender upgrade (any City defender) and for other prospective ideas. So Aubameyang gets some time.
All of this, thus far, has in essence been to say that my team - the Traoré mistake excepted - has been unlucky recently as much as anything else. Impatient as that might make me and drag on my mood as it may be, there's no obvious reason there to follow the guy I started with and take a double- or triple-hit. To do so would be to set recent losses in stone and start again. If something was genuinely 'wrong' it would be a different matter but - dispassionately as I can make it - that's not my assessment. Therefore the powder will be kept dry.
Holding Your Ground -
3. "Prospective" 7 Oct
So, now this brings me to the 'what next' question. Traoré will almost certainly leave in GW8 (the only thing that might save him would be if it became apparent that Jimenez wouldn't make the GW8 Wolves team) and as there is only 0.1m banked the options are restricted. That's fine; they were intended to be. Medium-term I'd like Mbeumo but it could well be that I go with Elyounoussi, Townsend or Gallacher initially. That will need some consideration prior to GW8 but there is plenty of time for that. It might, however, also be influenced by whatever else may be in my provisional plans.
City are a major factor as well and this is where the Aubameyang decision could come back and bite me hard. The big problem is the next game,
BUR. It seems crazy to be concerned about one fixture but
City have beaten Burnley 5-0 the last four times they have played at the Etihad and this isn't delving back into distant history, it's just the last 3 years!
Pep has an unfathomable selection policy - for example, Torres is probably City's most natural #9 and did well enough with 3 goals in 6 games (all competitions) to start the season but since then has been benched for 3 consecutive PL games and not even used as a sub.
This is one thing that makes me hesitant about Foden, for example. The fixtures after Burnley look far less dangerous as well. But the potential swing in one game is huge if you get it right and to be without a City attacker for it will be an unpleasant experience. Mahrez has enjoyed this fixture and will probably start, he'd likely make my team if a FH were deployed and Foden would too. But as it stands it would be too much surgery for one game and I will just need to be out on Saturday afternoon.
There is, however, space for a City defender to come in but which one? Cancelo is the obvious candidate and seems less of a rotation risk thus far but I also like Laporte and don't think the rotation risk for him (Stones) is any worse than it is for Cancelo (Zinchenko). Pep does tend to be more stable with defender selection (especially at CB) and Laporte at 5.5m could well offer similar value to what Dias did at the same price last season. He has somewhat more goal threat than Dias and both are similar in the BPS. Most important here is the 0.7m price gap, which could mean the difference between my keeping Raphinha a little later on or having to go with a Gallacher/Souček/Mbeumo type as M3 (though there are reservations about Souček because Moyes has adjusted his position this season). I'm edging towards Laporte here, largely in order to keep Raphinha once I have him.
That leaves two players in my squad under consideration right now, Jota & Aubameyang. My plan is to give Aubameyang time before (perhaps) a switch to Toney in GW11/12, allowing Son to occupy the spare midfield slot at the same time. Spurs do have great fixtures from GW12 and Son seems the ideal player to capitalise. But there would also be the option of evening out the two slots by taking a Foden type and a DCL type. It's not a decision for now but useful to have as part of the perspective.
All xG/xA stats are from fbref.com
