Paw's for thought

[TheRumourMill]

If you got Martinez at 4.5 then I'd stick, he's risk free as we know that whatever the schedule ends up as, he will have no blanks and a double. So you won't even need a playing second keeper. Ruth stats on guita were interesting as I think palace have the worst defensive stats in the league in the last 6 matches, and have the same issue as villa of no motivation.

The rest looks good assuming the schedule is as Ben expects. However there's a good chance it isn't. Can't you have son now then get rid for jwp or Zaha for the potential double?

[Ruth_NZ]

Emi will be one of my two keepers, based mainly on price (£4.5m for me) and certainty of starts.. As for who he’ll be paired with, I have been looking at Meslier, Ederson, Johnstone and one or two others. With Son in the team all but Johnstone were out of reach - you’re right though, I am looking for someone to play in most fixtures.

Ah, OK, so Martinez is essentially 4.9m for you then? Makes good sense to keep for the guaranteed DGW in that case and I'd strongly tend towards Meslier as the other GK. Like you say, the double with Dallas shouldn't concern really.

I actually think that’s the biggest decision I need to make. Do I spread the cash around. Or do I keep enough for a 3rd big hitter. A DGW/BGW period typically favours the moneyball approach of strength in depth and benching dilemmas. After that, Son to (e.g.) KDB is much easier.

I honestly think KDB is way overpriced and wouldn't be basing decisions on getting him in, especially if City do well enough tonight to make the CL Final a realistic possibility. So I'd definitely spread the cash, that should help in terms of producing good teams for all eventualities and there would be interesting Son replacements (like Rashford, Pulisic, Mahrez) if required for the last 2-3 games of the season. If we get fixtures/deadlines announced by the weekend I'll take another look but I just don't feel inclined to examine how to handle a scenario that may not transpire.

It's similar for me in another way. Under normal circumstances I'd save FT this week but if there is a big DGW35 that's when my FH will come out and a saved transfer would be wasted. What would suit me best is the small DGW36 scenario, then I could use two FTs GW35 to prepare for GW37-8. This week I have enough bench dilemmas as it is.

[Bobby Fetta]

Thanks
Yes, the scenario is based on fixtures being announced - and being as per Crellin. It’s the best info I have and I had to start to plan. Yet one more mistake this season was pulling the wildcard trigger to look for price rises. In short, I am committed. So if the fixtures are announced and do pan out as per his prediction I have worked out that I have a way through the blanks/doubles.
If not, you’ll see me on here panicking on Thursday and Friday!

I know it is nearly Thursday anyway, but surely it would be prudent to plan a non DGW/BGW team too, just in case the oracle is fallible.

[Ruth_NZ]

I know it is nearly Thursday anyway, but surely it would be prudent to plan a non DGW/BGW team too, just in case the oracle is fallible.

If it's not Thursday then it's probably going to be post-deadline. Didn't they wait till just after the deadline to announce last time?

[Smurphy Paw]

I know it is nearly Thursday anyway, but surely it would be prudent to plan a non DGW/BGW team too, just in case the oracle is fallible.

If it's not Thursday then it's probably going to be post-deadline. Didn't they wait till just after the deadline to announce last time?

They’ve typically waited until after the midweek European games. I am keeping my fingers crossed for some clarity in time. It is causing me some concern.

Bobby, yes. Time is not my friend this week but I am also looking at a Plan B...or is it A!

[TheRumourMill]

They'll decide on it at 3:01pm on Friday but won't release the news until Monday due to the social media blackout this weekend. Just the latest way to screw us over this season, as if a global pandemic wasn't enough!

[Smurphy Paw]

Wildcard Plan A...or was it B?
I think we’ll call them ‘The Bobby’ and ‘The Ben’!
If the fixtures are more straightforward than Ben Crellin outlines and there are only two additional games in, say, GW36 then the late wildcard becomes a bit of a nothing. Just a chance to spruce up my squad and get rid of a few out of form players. It’d be a real disappointment.
Those games would be the rearranged games from earlier in the season. Bobby Fetta made the prediction and Stormrider has a useful graphic predicting which GW things will fall. It means DGW36 for Everton v Villa and Soton v Palace.
The tricky issue is that we’ll probably not know before the deadline. Or if we do find out it’ll be a matter of drafting and committing without much pause to post and reflect on here.
I therefore need to plan a squad that passes muster for either scenario. The following is an interim ‘Bobby’ team with a handful of DGW36 players, mainly drawn from Everton. None of the other defences are that attractive at the moment, nor their fixtures that clean sheet-friendly.
Up front Ings being out compromises Southampton. Adams is OK. JWP is the pick.
Palace means Zaha or no-one. I have found that he’s always sixth choice for 5 midfield slots
Villa have awful fixtures and still no Grealish and so, bar Martinez who I got at base price and will keep, it’d only be Watkins I’d want. There are one or two others who I might end up with which is not the same thing.

DGW36 Plan B...‘The Bobby’
Circled are the five likely doublers. By then a couple of transfers will have accrued so, for example, Nacho to Watkins would be possible if not really that pressing a move.

B45071E4-3A19-4217-952E-88EC12E3670F.jpeg

One of the things that I like about this set up is that it should get better over time. There’s a habit I have on wildcard to look at the first three or so weeks and then it tails off. This squad targets a handful or bottom half teams including BHA, Burnley, WBA, Soton, SHU and Palace with the majority of players having attractive fixtures each week. Whilst I don’t think WBA are the pushovers they were a month ago they’re still susceptible to letting goals in.
I have avoided teams playing Newcastle, mainly because, apart from rotation kings City I didn’t really want any of those players!
What this team fails to do is allow many ‘European’ (UCL/EL) players - City, Chelsea, Arsenal. Looking at the second half result for Man U, does it look as if Bruno is back in form? I turned it off at half time to watch Taskmaster. Maybe a big mistake!

Anyway, there’s deliberately a lot of read across between this starting squad and the one I have for Crellin’s scenario (The Ben). I need to cross reference which may not be posted this evening.
Anything jump out from this as a WC squad though?

Thanks, SP

[Smurphy Paw]

How ‘The Bobby’ would look if ‘Ben’ is right
It still works.
The team above would have 8 doublers and 11 in BGW36.
Taking Siggy and JWP helps with this. I am not convinced that they will both work out well and match the likes of Jota game for game. They’re in for the certainty of extra fixture. If I was to drop one of them, which should it be?
One positive switch from earlier this week, I have gone for Shaw instead of Castagne. There’s no impact in terms of games to be played or likely schedule but Shaw’s fixtures hold up through to GW38 so it’d save a transfer. In truth I’d prefer them both. But I do have enough for Castagne instead of Coufal. It builds in a transfer if ‘The Ben’ scenario pans out, the benefit being an extra game. I’d really like him in the squad for the next two. As I type I am talking myself in to it!

Admittedly there’s some bias in picking this second squad, having already opted for a few of them. Including Castagne here’s how they’d line up for GW34:

71265AA1-6AE9-4F20-B007-D2305DF74BA2.jpeg

[blahblah]

I haven't made any transfers, if that helps.

[Smurphy Paw]

I haven't made any transfers, if that helps.

If you can keep listening to Gladiator and, ‘Hold!’, it’d be appreciated. Thanks

[blahblah]

I haven't made any transfers, if that helps.

If you can keep listening to Gladiator and, ‘Hold!’, it’d be appreciated. Thanks

?? (I'm watching the NFL Draft for the next 4ish hours)

I'm not touching it and Kane will be Capt, unless I know he us not starting.....

[Ruth_NZ]

Anything jump out from this as a WC squad though?

Rather like the squad with Coufal in it. The most questionable pick for me is JWP, really don't fancy him and would much prefer Jota or Zaha in that slot. If that means a downgrade for Digne so be it. Godfrey would look like a satisfactory alternative to me, or Konsa, or Vestergaard. You'd really only start that player (even if it's Digne) for the DGW (whenever it comes), wouldn't you?

[Smurphy Paw]

I haven't made any transfers, if that helps.

If you can keep listening to Gladiator and, ‘Hold!’, it’d be appreciated. Thanks

?? (I'm watching the NFL Draft for the next 4ish hours)

I'm not touching it and Kane will be Capt, unless I know he us not starting.....

A line from the film - and loads of other fight scenes. ‘Hold the line’.
Also definitely in Braveheart, likely to be a few in Game of Thrones, etc.
As in, don’t break ranks, make transfers and undermine my master plan

[blahblah]

I don't watch violent films, well apart from weird South Korean stuff

[Smurphy Paw]

Anything jump out from this as a WC squad though?

Rather like the squad with Coufal in it. The most questionable pick for me is JWP, really don't fancy him and would much prefer Jota or Zaha in that slot. If that means a downgrade for Digne so be it. Godfrey would look like a satisfactory alternative to me, or Konsa, or Vestergaard. You'd really only start that player (even if it's Digne) for the DGW (whenever it comes), wouldn't you?

Yes, JWP is a bit of an enigma. It was a proactive choice when Ings was fit, ergo he’s less attractive as an option now. What’s true is that not having him will not hurt my rank but I was looking for differentials.

Digne was a consideration for more than just the double in GW35 in ‘The Ben’. In ‘The Bobby’ you’re probably right, even though I’d be happy to play him against Villa and Wolves as well. I guess there’s a VFM aspect with £6+m tied up for maybe one game week. Having Shaw and Castagne impacts on this. Perm two of three.

Which brings us on to who else instead.
Zaha would also only be in there from GW35/36, however they pan out. Jota could play every game (although he’d not make the eleven this week); and Jota reduces the need to play Digne in more than the double.

Laying it all out Jota comes back on to the radar. Boy he’s frustrating. Underlying stats vs profligacy in front of goal since I picked him.

The following is as much a reminder of latest iteration for me to quickly make changes before the deadline if we don’t receive any further fixture news.

B89397CA-6B7B-4E7A-84CB-32208CE9BE83.jpeg

[SirMattBugsby]

No love for my man Coleman?

(Insert Big Lebowski Shomer Shabbos gif, only you say "SAEMUS COLEMAN!" )

[Smurphy Paw]

No love for my man Coleman?

(Insert Big Lebowski Shomer Shabbos gif, only you say "SAEMUS COLEMAN!" )

Historically, yes. Now, no.
If playing him coincides with one of his 90 minute appearances then that’s brilliant. But what if it’s a 17 or 29 minute day? The issue here, of course, being that he is unlikely to play 180 minutes in the double game week for which he would primarily be picked.

And I have obviously spent too much time watching GoT as I (am slightly embarrassed to admit that I) haven’t seen TBL

[Ruth_NZ]

Laying it all out Jota comes back on to the radar. Boy he’s frustrating. Underlying stats vs profligacy in front of goal since I picked him.

The following is as much a reminder of latest iteration for me to quickly make changes before the deadline if we don’t receive any further fixture news.

He has been in my team too. Don't find him frustrating, just promising. A 7m player getting that many good chances?
That latest iteration looks pretty much an A grade wildcard to me, especially if it works in both scenarios. Only change would be to play TAA over Coufal this week but that's somewhat marginal perhaps.

[Stormrider]

Hi Smurphy's Paw,

Like your team, really rounded and should be well prepared for both scenarios.

Martinez against 2 Everton attackers seems not optimal but I understand your point with a lot of money stuck with him.

A second Spurs attacker not on your wishlist?

Best of luck!

[Stormrider]

BTW: do you know the FPL review site? They have the re-arranged fixtures alread included and a function to propose transfers as well as a whole wildcard. Good luck - you have 2 hours

[Smurphy Paw]

Team picked, mainly as above

[Smurphy Paw]

GW34 Wildcard
Here it is:

21CEB24F-D284-4FDF-8ACF-9944DEB9B109.jpeg

The last minute switch out of James Ward-Prowse is the first lament, he’s just knocked in the penalty that takes away Castagne’s clean sheet. Zaha owes me
Probably the switch that will surprise most is the exclusion of Salah for Bruno. The DGW captaincy and last night’s Roma performance were the main reasons. I have just enough in the bank to do Bruno & Castagne to Salah & Coufal for GW36 if nothing else is more pressing.

[Joccki_10]

I like it, SP. I like it very much.

[Smurphy Paw]

DGW35 Preview
OK, way too early to actually do a preview but here’s a taster of what the wildcard enabled

9D207CAE-F989-4D43-975F-1A603EA957D8.jpeg

[Joccki_10]

My first Free Hit this afternoon had Mendy instead of Guaita, Salah instead of Greenwood and Watkins instead of Kane. All in all pretty similar I’d say.

[Smurphy Paw]

I would compare Salah/Kane & Watkins/Greenwood as like for likes (status not position). So yes, pretty similar.

Mendy was a shortlist option that I considered and discounted. For WC (not FH) their remaining fixtures are more of a consideration. That said, it’s as tough a DGW as it could be - unless you’re relying on save points and low probability events. Plus for anyone second guessing Tuchel, the occasional Kepa/Keeper issue is in the background.

[Stormrider]

Fantastic team, Smurphy‘s Paw. A lot of differentials only very few will be able to have and still a way to 11 playing in 36. DGW 36 could be huge for you and basis for a nice climb towards the end of season.

[Smurphy Paw]

Thanks all for the comments and observations. That was a stressful week, not helped by lots of real life to fit this in around.
It was like it all week and even after the announcement was made I still had two little people to feed and get to swimming club; and then meet a mate to go mountain biking, all well before the actual FPL deadline.

Basically this was a one hour wildcard and so I was concerned that I’d come back from my ride and realise that I’d made a horrible mistake somewhere. Maybe leaving JWP out is that mistake... maybe something else more fundamental will occur to me in due course

One error that I have already spotted, albeit it a minor one, is I now realise that I have priced myself out of the Salah/Coufal switch by £0.1m. I already held Salah who had increased in price and I didn’t factor his selling price in to the proposed removal and reintroduction. That is solvable, I’d resigned myself to some price changes by the time I make GW36 moves and knew there were a few c.£4.5m options available if required - Dawson, Lowton. Maybe Philips at Liverpool will be fit and back in the team by then. That’d be ideal.

Likely BGW36 Team
Meslier (Sou)
Digne (Shu), Trent (WBA), Dallas (Bur) Coufal/Philips/other
Zaha (Avl), Lingard (BHA), Sigurrdson (Shu) Salah(C) (WBA)
Kane (Wol), Calvert-Lewin (Shu)

[Ruth_NZ]

My first Free Hit this afternoon had Mendy instead of Guaita, Salah instead of Greenwood and Watkins instead of Kane. All in all pretty similar I’d say.

I'll find it very hard to do before the Thursday EL games are played, for example if Aubameyang were fit and Lacazette still out he'd surely be a big FH option? At the moment I can't see the reason to do anything but go with 11 DGW players, which would mean the budget won't be a stretch, really only Salah & Kane come into serious contention as SGW players (maybe TAA as well) but not persuasively enough for me as it stands right now.

In SPs situation I'd have taken Salah rather than Bruno on wildcard because 36-8 you'll want Salah for sure. If preferring to accommodate Bruno (and I can see why) it would have been at the expense of Kane because Spurs post-Mourinho look like something of a dead duck to me. Doubtless that will be proved wrong later today.

Mendy.. it’s as tough a DGW as it could be unless you’re relying on save points and low probability events. Plus for anyone second guessing Tuchel, the occasional Kepa/Keeper issue is in the background.

Not sure what you mean by 'low probability events' because Chelsea have 18 CSs in 22 games since TT took over so a CS isn't really a low probability event for them no matter who they are playing. You made a comment after the WBA game that they had maybe got all their goals conceded for April out of the way in one game and weren't actually far wrong, in the subsequent 8 games they only conceded twice and those games included matchups against Porto (x2), City, West Ham and Real Madrid.

More of a concern with Mendy is the paucity of BPs. Yesterday he was very close (needed one more save) but it seems he needs 4 saves and a CS to get among the BPs. That's more than most keepers require.

The Kepa situation is trickier. TT has twice given him an additional game after a Cup game as an acknowledgement of his excellent attitude in training but he didn't do that following the FAC QF. I think it likely that Kepa will play the FAC Final so the only issue would be whether he gets the game before it (Arsenal, the 2nd game of the DGW). I think probably not but there is some room for doubt there, perhaps enough to sway towards another option on FH.

PS. Regards JWP, as a matter of interest would you actually have played him this week anyway?

[Smurphy Paw]

Cheers Ruth

1. Free Hit
I’ll add to either/both of your threads about FH/DGW players if useful. Suffice to say that managing a wildcard to cover most FH bases as well as keeping a close eye on BGW36 was a ‘fun’ challenge.

2. Bruno/Salah
- Salah is coming in for GW36. Like you, I dislike planning in transfers. They have to be used at some point in time and getting Salah for GW36 is as good a use of one as any.
- Today you could toss a coin for which premium will do better (well, with 55 minutes to go until kick off you can!). The same was not true for the use of the extra cash. For 34/35/36 I concluded that Digne was the better additional defender as compared to Coufal. That was part of the consideration and <oh, yes!> my faith has been repaid already. (NB I would have played Dallas instead, and therefore Guita not Meslier)
- For DGW35, much like your FH point, it is surely better to back a Doubler than a SGW player, much else being equal?
- Then there’s captaincy. It may backfire but being able to captain a Premium player with an extra game was enough for me to make the call. There were arguments against. Deciding who to give the armband to instead for DGW35 is something I couldn’t answer.
- Kane: In truth it didn’t occur to me. One hour to wild card was tough

3. ‘All the goals for April’
This was most definitely a light hearted p-take and tongue in cheek. It’s not something I’d stand by as a serious prediction. It was actually acknowledgement of quite how well Chelsea had been performing over the previous weeks.

4. Low probability events.
I think that City will score against you; Arsenal could score against you. If there was a game week to concede in both it’d be next week, it’s a tough pair of fixtures. OK, the Arsenal game depends which Arsenal turns up but there’s little doubt that City have the ability. The clean sheets were therefore not the low probability events, I was thinking more of needing to rely on penalty saves, etc. to pull off a monster DGW score. Plus the Kepa issue. Don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t running Chelsea down, just pointing out that if one had the pick of all Keepers, money no object, I think there are enough reasons to look elsewhere.

5. JWP.
I can’t say categorically. Despite picking Sigurdsson I still have some questions marks about him and, in a squad with JWP, was probably going to hedge bets by going for JWP rather than play three Toffees this game week. As you (I think) pointed out, Everton at home are unreliable. Greenwood was another that I mulled over benching, sometimes Ole doesn’t start him in tough fixtures. However whilst the squad picking did take GW34 into consideration I spent most time trying to navigate DGW35&BGW36. Candidly, your comments coincided with Ings being confirmed out and taken together turned me against him. It was marginal though. (To be clear, I definitely accept all responsibility. I put my team forward for comment and overall it is a helpful process).

Edit: 6. Aubameyang
Whilst I have been typing this Auba has announced his recovery from Malaria with a goal and assist against Newcastle. Surely he’s now a shoe-in for Free Hit and WC35 squads?