Well it's only my 2nd season and I am still learning so you could well be right - time will tell.I do however think that 10m is far too much to spend on your keepers, and must be to the detriment of your team elsewhere?
Here is my draft squad for the first Gameweek - it's not perfection but I think it's hopefully above average.
Notes:
Can't afford Aguero at 13mil until perhaps later. I will mostly play 3-4-3.
And yes, I know I do have 0.5 spare (to allow more flexibility for transfers in GW2)
So, in addition to your 3 viable GK options I think I am suggesting a 4th i.e. *Premium keeper and a *playing* sub*Mid-priced keeper and his understudy
*Two x 4.5m to rotate
*Premium keeper and a non playing sub
They are the three most viable options when selecting your keepers in my opinion, in that order of preference for me.
These option's respective prices are I guess
a) 9.5 m
b) 9 m
c) 9.5 m
and my option d) 10 m
There's not much difference in overall cost and I think the potential benefits and flexibility of d) are worth spending a measly *1/200th of your available budget* on in terms of the returns that it can bring (to put it in perspective). We should do a comparison at the end of the season. Like you said there is no right or wrong answer as to which approach is best at this moment - only hindsight will tell.
And scoregasms - thanks for your input. My unscientific gut-feeling is that you were unlucky on that occasion (it is FPL!). Most of the time it will pay off given similar fixtures like the example I gave earlier.