Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

[dino1980]

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[Mr Clarinet]

So, the GW38 deadline is a couple of days away. Like most (I imagine) I'm sitting on 2 free transfers (and a few chips) and I'm wondering, a little, what happens to them after 2pm on Sunday. Is that it - no more GWs (as far as we know at the moment), so no more transfers? Or will they stay there, available should the desperate hope that is Project Restart come to pass? Or will that involve a clean slate? And why do I still care about any of this?
Pity they can't find a way of playing out the FPL season, which does no real harm to most of us participants, independent of the real season, which to me looks like a recipe for real harms to its direct participants in the event of such a premature resumption...

[SirMattBugsby]

They could continue FPL via FIFA tournaments but not sure if watching virtual football would be everyone's cup of tea.

I'm on fantasy Bundesliga now. Making a team after all this time was

[math!]

Someone get the hoover, there's cobwebs everywhere!

[Smurphy Paw]

That’s because most of the specious chatter at the moment is taking place in the politics forum

[blahblah]

That’s because most of the specious chatter at the moment is taking place in the politics forum

Well rabid shite from a few...

I brain dumped shite here: viewtopic.php?f=99&t=130617&start=360

[Mav3rick]

Has anyone had a look at what effect if any the lack of crowds seems to be having on Bundesliga games? I had a look at pre-lockdown away performance to see if it might correlate with post-lockdown overall performance, but it doesn't really seem to have made much difference really. The same teams still have the higher xPTS.

[blahblah]

Has anyone had a look at what effect if any the lack of crowds seems to be having on Bundesliga games? I had a look at pre-lockdown away performance to see if it might correlate with post-lockdown overall performance, but it doesn't really seem to have made much difference really. The same teams still have the higher xPTS.

I believe that the best teams are better ie no crowd etc helps the up and at 'em lot and no pressure for best side not being in front quickly enough...

Someone posted something about scary managers (which I assume to be Dyce et al) but has to be tempered with playerswanting out and Clubs with no atmosphere at home ground....

[Mav3rick]

Is that actually proven though or just speculation? I think I've said myself that more games were won away from home, but I wonder if that's just a fluke of fixture strength rather than anything to do with the lack of crowds.

If you order the bundesliga data on Understand by xPts and have a look pre and post lockdown I can't see much change going on really, certainly not in the top half of the league.

[baganboy]

That’s because most of the specious chatter at the moment is taking place in the politics forum

Best to avoid, then.

[SirMattBugsby]

Is that actually proven though or just speculation? I think I've said myself that more games were won away from home, but I wonder if that's just a fluke of fixture strength rather than anything to do with the lack of crowds.

If you order the bundesliga data on Understand by xPts and have a look pre and post lockdown I can't see much change going on really, certainly not in the top half of the league.

Don't know about stats, but after watching Bundesliga a decent amount, I can't remember many comebacks. Most matches have been straightforward. Then again, maybe they are so usually as well.

I'm also remembering winning teams conceding the odd goal. All the top 5 teams have been guilty of this.

[Smurphy Paw]

I am drawn more to the observation that stronger teams continue to do well, than overthinking H/A with unfamiliar teams in an unfamiliar (to me) league. More a curiosity and to keep an eye out for any correlation than something to build a squad around. Yet.
I’d prefer to keep the second wildcard or two or three weeks but I am not sure that’ll happen unless I free hit in GW32

[blahblah]

As one who loathes to overthink I'm thinking of changing from 5atb due to less CS's

[Stemania]

Ah, it's been a while indeedily. Oddly there doesn't seem a huge amount of strategy to worry about this week with infinite transfers. My plan atm is

BB30+, FH31+, WC32+

but depends on the rate of price movements going into 31+. Having very low TV myself, the question I'm most stuck on in terms of picks for this week is Sterling. I'd ideally like all the big hitters from City, plus Auba, plus TAA, plus triple ShefDef, Leno and Grealish, but that leaves me with a very shakey set of cheapos - the likes of Reina, Mings, Douglas Luiz (shrug), Nketiah. So I'm inlined to beef up the squad with Mahrez & Jimenez over Sterling & Nketiah in the x & y positions below at the very least, but I don't like it that much.

Leno, Reina
TAA, Triple Shef, Boly/Mings
KDB, Grealish, Cantwell, x, (shrug)
Aguero, Auba, y

I think it'll be a bit of a theme over the rest of the season - picking a 'thick' squad to take into account rotation/isolation risk. I had a go at a post-GW31+ team and it looked a bit like

4.5m-GK, That-GKs backup-at-same-club
TAA, VVD, Boly, Maguire, Lascelles
Mane, KDB, MUN, 6m?, Cantwell
Jimenez, Abraham, DCL

which, unsurprisingly, is very close to my current team (that I used the lockdown frees to obtain). But I've so little confidence in this being my thought of a good WC team by GW31+/32+ that I don't think FH30+ is sensible as an alternative plan.

How are you all shaping up? What are you biggest issues/unresolved considerations?

[SirMattBugsby]

How are you all shaping up? What are you biggest issues/unresolved considerations?

The biggest issue is, of course, the uncertainty. We don't know squat about fitness, illness, injury, motivation, tactics etc.. and so, what we do might end up doing more harm than good with our initial actions.

This is why, while I was initially wanting to use unlimited transfers (since I don't have a second WC), I'm not inclined to do so now. It could do lasting damage since I'll be essentially gambling on players like Auba, Mount, Pukki.

The only certain information is the DGW, so acting on it seems sensible. I'll therefore (probably) use FH in 30. Not expecting this to be the best use of the chip, but my team looks good for 31 and it allows me to wait and see.

[blahblah]

Yep. It's strange to consider just how much we have known for GW30 in the past

I'm still tempted to shift my cash forward and play 3 atb. Obviously this needs more enthusiasm than I have at present.

[SirMattBugsby]

Yep. It's strange to consider just how much we have known for GW30 in the past

I'm still tempted to shift my cash forward and play 3 atb. Obviously this needs more enthusiasm than I have at present.

Is there another direction your cash could flow?

But yes, 3 atb for me too, unless Alonso shows up.

[blahblah]

Yep. It's strange to consider just how much we have known for GW30 in the past

I'm still tempted to shift my cash forward and play 3 atb. Obviously this needs more enthusiasm than I have at present.

Is there another direction your cash could flow?

But yes, 3 atb for me too, unless Alonso shows up.

Well over 2m itb, so I could upgrade GK and Saiss

[Smurphy Paw]

@Stem
I have a little more in the bank but I am playing around with the same two or three positions

Stem
Leno, Reina
TAA, Triple Shef, Boly/Mings
KDB, Grealish, Cantwell, x, (shrug)
Aguero, Auba, y

Both in red

Def - Allude to and discount - Saiss or Boly so little difference. Boly would be better but I have cash tied up in Saiss

Leaving:
Stem - Grealish, Cantwell, x, y
SP1 - Sterling, Grealish, Cantwell, Jimenez
SP2 - Salah, Mahrez, McGinn, Nketiah
If Mahrez and Sterling achieve the same it somewhat comes down to Salah or Jimenez

[baganboy]

the question I'm most stuck on in terms of picks for this week is Sterling. I'd ideally like all the big hitters from City, plus Auba, plus TAA, plus triple ShefDef, Leno and Grealish, but that leaves me with a very shakey set of cheapos

Nice team, Stemania. (And SP)

The above is kind of where I sit as well. If I decide to not have Sterling (and that's where my draft is at the moment), The team shapes up nicely, IMHO.
I am not saying it would happen, but if I cannot resist getting myself a bit of Sterling, the bench in the Bench Boost kinda collapses.

Decisions, decisions...

[From4corners]

I would like Sterling as well,for Salah this week would be the only option I'm considering but I'd miss 0.2 to get Salah back again for the Palace game.

Henderson Reina
TAA Doherty Alonso Lundstram (Taylor or Williams)
DSilva Fernandes Salah (Shelvey, Hayden)
Kun Tammy Jota

I could BB this week, but don't feel like it (still have FH and WC burning as well). On that (and another note), I could swap Reina for Henderson's back up (Moore?) and still have a playing GK in GW31+ which means I can do Sterling Salah next week.

That being said, do I really want to leave out Salah for the derby over Sterling? If it will be anything like their last PL meeting, which Salah missed out on, then he could be in for a treat (albeit a differently managed Everton this time). He's also eyeing the golden boot so I think I actually talked myself out of it..

[SirMattBugsby]

Regarding Liverpool, I'll have their double-up throughout the season. But I'm not expecting a repeat of 5-2. The last 5 meetings before that were all low-scoring.

[Stemania]

@Stem
I have a little more in the bank but I am playing around with the same two or three positions

By the looks of it everyone does! No idea how I've ended up with a TV of 102.3 at this point of the season considering I had 103M in GW15 when I was all the way back at 250k in the rankings!!! Impressive incompetence on display.

You guys (bagan, SP, SMB) have 3m more to play with by the looks, well played. Good old blah is back in the dole queue with me, and F4C somewhere in between I see. So, for us pennyless, Sterling is a very different question I think. It's actually reassuring that you and bagan are wavering on Sterling, even with that leeway. With Sterling I have no Jimenez.

I'm actually getting slowly drawn to Saka as a third Arsenal (over Douglas Luiz, with Mings then in as 12th DGWer). Any thoughts on him as an Arsenal fan, bagan?

[Pirlo's Beard]

No idea how I've ended up with a TV of 102.3 at this point of the season considering I had 103M in GW15 when I was all the way back at 250k in the rankings!!! Impressive incompetence on display.

You're ranked inside the top 5k. Are you honestly bothered by low team value?

[Stemania]

No idea how I've ended up with a TV of 102.3 at this point of the season considering I had 103M in GW15 when I was all the way back at 250k in the rankings!!! Impressive incompetence on display.

You're ranked inside the top 5k. Are you honestly bothered by low team value?

Not hugely (though the lack of TV will no doubt make it much harder to maintain that position now everyone has infinite transfers!). It just struck me, I don't really know how it's actually possible - why were my players apparently scoring lots of points but apparently losing (or rather, definitely not gaining) value?

[baganboy]

I'm actually getting slowly drawn to Saka as a third Arsenal (over Douglas Luiz, with Mings then in as 12th DGWer). Any thoughts on him as an Arsenal fan, bagan?

Brilliant. This kid, if he stays with Arsenal (14 months left on his contract far as I know), will be one of the first picks for all FPL teams in a few years - he can be like Gareth Bale, like Sadio Mane. He is that good.
Now, is tricky. The two positions he shines in are left wing and left wing-back. And he is quite competent as a traditional left back - thus my overall Bale comparison.
LB / LWB: Kieran Tierney is the first choice left back / left wing back for Arsenal. Many may say that at this moment, Saka is even better as a left wing back than Tierney, but who knows. Tierney comes with a huge reputation ( 'til as much as a couple years back, nearly all reports thought him to be a greater Scottish left back than Andrew Robertson. And Robbo is perhaps the best LB in the world at the moment).
LW/IF: If you have to accommodate Auba and Laca into the team, Auba will have to play the left winger cutting in. And Auba is our best player. And our best young player (yes we really have an exciting young bunch) IMHO is not Saka, it is Gabriel Martinelli. And Martinelli is very good as a Left Inside Forward.

It is tricky. At this moment, nobody but Auba is really safe. Saka will get a lot of game time. But he is not the first choice in any position, when everyone is fit.

Future: I would like us to sell Auba (with all my love, gratitude and best wishes) for serious money in the summer, and buy a really good defender, the way Liverpool did and transformed their team. Saka / Martinelli are excellent for the LW positions, and Laca, Martinelli + Nketiah is good enough for the single forward slot.

[Pirlo's Beard]

I would like us to sell Auba (with all my love, gratitude and best wishes) for serious money in the summer, and buy a really good defender, the way Liverpool did and transformed their team.

Liverpool didn't have to sell their best attacking player to fund it though.

[Stemania]

Excellent! Hmmm....

So Nketiah more or less likely to get minutes this DGW? (Though I've sortof talked myself out of him for Jimenez/Mahrez).

Ooh, but Saka would be so damn convenient. There must be a bias that describes believing something to be true because it would be more beneficial. I'm all about that bias, whatever it's called! Saka for the win!

[Smurphy Paw]

I would like us to sell Auba (with all my love, gratitude and best wishes) for serious money in the summer, and buy a really good defender, the way Liverpool did and transformed their team.

Liverpool didn't have to sell their best attacking player to fund it though.

Well, Coutinho was considered their best player at the time (certainly by Barcelona before that slides in to a ‘he was better than him’ thing).
What is not in doubt is that Liverpool used the money well

[Smurphy Paw]

Excellent! Hmmm....

So Nketiah more or less likely to get minutes this DGW? (Though I've sortof talked myself out of him for Jimenez/Mahrez).

Ooh, but Saka would be so damn convenient. There must be a bias that describes believing something to be true because it would be more beneficial. I'm all about that bias, whatever it's called! Saka for the win!

Which is why Nketiah was in my Salah team.

On team value, the difference is not as marked as you outline. You made changes during lockdown. I didn’t and retained value but I have just made the first bunch of changes for this GW and lost about £1m value - the sort of value that looks good on paper but has little use. Other proposed changes will bring it down even more.