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Dod's Blog

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 15 Apr 2019, 10:19

One point that both of you have almost made is that by waiting until the players you are interested in have played you reduce risk. Dod, it’s captured in the ‘more information’ point. AR, I commented on your thread as well, but I think the benefits of retaining the wild card this game week only became obvious in hindsight.

Dod, I like the way you have articulated the relative benefits of an increased budget. Looking at Liverpool’s defence yesterday there’s an example that supports both chasing and not chasing budget. I have Robertson. Had I splashed out a little more I could have had a six more points with VVD (who I recently sold so it would have cost more)
With a more modest budget I’d have had TAA.
Both out scored Robertson.
Hardly a representative sample but a live recent example that illustrates the point.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Sutter Kane » 15 Apr 2019, 11:37

The point being that budget makes very little difference until you have enough of it to push a significant upgrade somewhere? TAA to Robertson is not a significant upgrade although I plumped for Robertson as I don't need the money (although one might, right?). Information is always key in my view, unless the price changes are very significant or you're priced out. IMO when I say information is key, I mean at all stages of the season. If you go down the increasing budget route I think you have to stick with it and get a decent chunk of wealth. However, I would not employ this tactic as it probably leads to hits, trying the force money moves.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod » 15 Apr 2019, 12:34

Sutter Kane wrote:
15 Apr 2019, 11:37
The point being that budget makes very little difference until you have enough of it to push a significant upgrade somewhere? TAA to Robertson is not a significant upgrade although I plumped for Robertson as I don't need the money (although one might, right?). Information is always key in my view, unless the price changes are very significant or you're priced out. IMO when I say information is key, I mean at all stages of the season. If you go down the increasing budget route I think you have to stick with it and get a decent chunk of wealth. However, I would not employ this tactic as it probably leads to hits, trying the force money moves.
Actually, no. In fact that's pretty much the opposite of what i am saying! :lol: .

If you are looking at accruing enough budget to make a "significant upgrade" you are going to be disappointed. It would take an extra 3.5m to turn a Vardy into a Kane. Chasing that sort of budget increase is a forlorn exercise. My point is rather that, as prices of the successful players increase and make larger demands on your budget, if you have a larger than average budget you will have to make fewer compromises in order to own the 'essential' players than a rival with a lower budget. This should lead to an increase in the player pool you have to choose from and a decrease in the number of hits you need to take to enable your transfers.

Because the 'sweet-spots' are most common around the median, that is where increasing your budget is most important. The nearer to that of the average FPL team your budget is the more likely it is that an increase will help you or a decrease will hurt you. Don't think in terms of increasing your brute force spending power, but rather in terms of increasing your flexibility and options. It is the first million either side of the current average budget where you will experience the most advantage against rivals with lower budgets (or disadvantage against those with higher), and that advantage will take the form of flexibility and choice rather than just extra purchasing power.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod » 15 Apr 2019, 12:54

Aldershot Rejects wrote:
15 Apr 2019, 09:49
Thanks dod, In many ways what you are saying about transfers can also be applied to my use of WC this week. I wish I had waited until after the European matches before playing my WC as I might have decided to wait given what happened in the Spurs game, but I hit the button early to make sure I caught any price rises. Of course the volume of WCs played this week meant that there were very few price changes all week.

Of course, the other side of the coin is that apart from a few snippets, managers are not giving out a lot of information v rotation which is really the big uncertainty at the moment.
It is very common that any game principle that is true can also be true in other aspects of that game and even in entirely different games. One could for example make analogies to tournament poker where Budget = Stack Size and Information = Position. The larger your stack size the greater the hand range you can profitably play. The later your position the more information you have. Of course, in this example, there is not a trade off between Stack Size and Position as there is between Budget and Information as in FPL.

I hadn't considered the 'waiting for information before deciding to play your wildcard' situation but of course it makes sense, especially for the 2nd wildcard when missing price rises and drops is less significant.

Another important aspect of making transfers early is not only do you lose information but you also lose the flexibility to change your mind. In my experience the times I have regretted an early transfer because the player transferred in has picked up an injury are pretty rare. What is far more common is that I regret it because I have come up with a better idea :( .

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod » 15 Apr 2019, 13:06

Smurphy's Paw wrote:
15 Apr 2019, 10:19
One point that both of you have almost made is that by waiting until the players you are interested in have played you reduce risk. Dod, it’s captured in the ‘more information’ point. AR, I commented on your thread as well, but I think the benefits of retaining the wild card this game week only became obvious in hindsight.

Dod, I like the way you have articulated the relative benefits of an increased budget. Looking at Liverpool’s defence yesterday there’s an example that supports both chasing and not chasing budget. I have Robertson. Had I splashed out a little more I could have had a six more points with VVD (who I recently sold so it would have cost more)
With a more modest budget I’d have had TAA.
Both out scored Robertson.
Hardly a representative sample but a live recent example that illustrates the point.
Yep. Waiting for games = more information. I also think you are right about saving the wildcard only being clear in hindsight this GW. That doesn't negate AR's general point though.

Re: your example. Budget has nothing to do with not choosing TAA over Robinson as you always had the option of spending less. It did however play a part in you not being able to afford VVD. The outcome is irrelevant. What is germane is that an larger budget would have increased your options and VVD would have been a possible choice.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 15 Apr 2019, 13:24

dod wrote:
15 Apr 2019, 13:06
Smurphy's Paw wrote:
15 Apr 2019, 10:19
One point that both of you have almost made is that by waiting until the players you are interested in have played you reduce risk. Dod, it’s captured in the ‘more information’ point. AR, I commented on your thread as well, but I think the benefits of retaining the wild card this game week only became obvious in hindsight.
Yep. Waiting for games = more information. I also think you are right about saving the wildcard only being clear in hindsight this GW. That doesn't negate AR's general point though.
With respect to this week, yes some of my regret is due to hindsight, but on Friday, I was already regretting my wildcard to some extent in the light partly of the week's events and also because in part I had changed my mind. To be honest by Friday I was kind of scrabbling around trying to come up with a new plan. I think I would have come up with a better team for the last four GWs (regardless of what happened this week), if I had waited for a week. What happened subsequently was in a sense just variance although having ditched a team which mostly had good fixtures, I possibly deserved it ;)

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Sutter Kane » 15 Apr 2019, 14:28

dod wrote:
15 Apr 2019, 12:34
Sutter Kane wrote:
15 Apr 2019, 11:37
The point being that budget makes very little difference until you have enough of it to push a significant upgrade somewhere?
Actually, no. In fact that's pretty much the opposite of what i am saying! :lol: .

If you are looking at accruing enough budget to make a "significant upgrade" you are going to be disappointed. It would take an extra 3.5m to turn a Vardy into a Kane. Chasing that sort of budget increase is a forlorn exercise. My point is rather that, as prices of the successful players increase and make larger demands on your budget, if you have a larger than average budget you will have to make fewer compromises in order to own the 'essential' players than a rival with a lower budget. This should lead to an increase in the player pool you have to choose from and a decrease in the number of hits you need to take to enable your transfers.
OK fair enough. So many variables at play and where you upgrade with an increased budget if anywhere - is it better to have one or two value players and money in the bank, just in case of injuries, etc? I agree looking to gain 3.5mn is counter-productive but what risk level of 'attempted' gain is productive?

If you remove a player you have decent value tied up in, then want them back, does that mean you've made an error in removing them? Not always, but sometimes! If you play solidly, your team value should increase anyway, probably to above average levels - is this enough as you'll be attempting to play points-efficient throughout?

Form (+hidden gems) is so unpredictable at the start of the season (I find anyway) that is it best to play for TV at that point and that point only? Also the compromises you mention above - is that like taking TAA over Robertson or something else given you can 'value-choose' where the compromise lies?

I think this is all so difficult so analyse that I'd tie myself up in knots trying to play a different way to what is my instinctive way of currently playing - trying to play a different way would likely see me worse off imo.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod » 15 Apr 2019, 16:45

Sutter Kane wrote:
15 Apr 2019, 14:28
dod wrote:
15 Apr 2019, 12:34
Sutter Kane wrote:
15 Apr 2019, 11:37
The point being that budget makes very little difference until you have enough of it to push a significant upgrade somewhere?
Actually, no. In fact that's pretty much the opposite of what i am saying! :lol: .

If you are looking at accruing enough budget to make a "significant upgrade" you are going to be disappointed. It would take an extra 3.5m to turn a Vardy into a Kane. Chasing that sort of budget increase is a forlorn exercise. My point is rather that, as prices of the successful players increase and make larger demands on your budget, if you have a larger than average budget you will have to make fewer compromises in order to own the 'essential' players than a rival with a lower budget. This should lead to an increase in the player pool you have to choose from and a decrease in the number of hits you need to take to enable your transfers.
OK fair enough. So many variables at play and where you upgrade with an increased budget if anywhere - is it better to have one or two value players and money in the bank, just in case of injuries, etc? I agree looking to gain 3.5mn is counter-productive but what risk level of 'attempted' gain is productive?

If you remove a player you have decent value tied up in, then want them back, does that mean you've made an error in removing them? Not always, but sometimes! If you play solidly, your team value should increase anyway, probably to above average levels - is this enough as you'll be attempting to play points-efficient throughout?

Form (+hidden gems) is so unpredictable at the start of the season (I find anyway) that is it best to play for TV at that point and that point only? Also the compromises you mention above - is that like taking TAA over Robertson or something else given you can 'value-choose' where the compromise lies?

I think this is all so difficult so analyse that I'd tie myself up in knots trying to play a different way to what is my instinctive way of currently playing - trying to play a different way would likely see me worse off imo.
It's very much a judgement call. The important thing to remember is that a player of your quality (and most on here) is not really competing against the average player. Instead I would look at the Top 10k and plan to have a budget in the top 25% of that group. If you play well that should give you a solid base. If you make poor choices then nothing is really going to help :lol: .

It's all about increasing flexibility and options but there is no exact formula because each season is different. When Leicester won the title and players like Vardy and Mahrez were dirt cheap and in every squad it was not uncommon to see teams that couldn't spend anywhere near their budget. In that situation it makes no sense to make any compromises on information to further increase a budget that is more than adequate.

It's not just seasons that vary; it is also teams and individual players. If a team is prone to heavy rotation it pays to wait for as much info as possible before committing to one of their players. If an individual player is prone to picking up injuries in training or matches then it is also sage to wait for the team news. On the other hand if the player you have identified to transfer in is a 1st team regular in a side that rarely rotates, in a team that is not suffering fixture congestion, and is himself not injury prone , the risk/reward ratio suggests it would be wasteful not to transfer him in before his price rises on the small chance that he will be struck by a meteorite or some other unlikely event.

The point you make about tying yourself up in knots thinking about this is valid. When I was playing backgammon professionally it was not uncommon to watch a player spend 10 minutes doing a difficult mental calculation that made a difference of less than a tenth of 1% match winning chances. Their tired brains would then frequently make a horrendous error a few moves later that they would never have normally made if they hadn't wasted so much energy on a calculation that simply wasn't worth the effort. Simply put, if you don't think you can adjust your game to your advantage don't waste the effort 8-) .

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod » 16 Apr 2019, 02:26

One further thing ...

When I talk about budget I am always referring to the selling price i.e. the available budget if you sold all of your players. Your squad value is irrelevant.

If you have bought a player and have a lot of squad value tied up in him and he picks up a minor injury or faces a series of unappetising fixtures then you may wish to bench him if you would want to bring him back fairly shortly and not waste the transfers on taking him out and bringing him back on again. If however he is under-performing or there are good options elsewhere I would rather bite the bullet and convert his squad value into real budget which you can reinvest.

If you have one of these players and keep him you have to remember that what you are effectively doing is playing without that player's entire cost for the GWs he is out of your team. He will likely drop in price and it is possible you could have re-invested that money in a player who's price is rising. At the very least you will have converted half of your profit into real budget. It also depends on whether his ownership is mainly TGUs (in which case his value is likely to depreciate slowly) or DFFs (in which case his value will drop like a stone).

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Sutter Kane » 16 Apr 2019, 08:17

If he's underperforming...what if he's doing what he should be and his price won't drop but he's just got a one game niggle. Then it gets complicated. Can one roll the transfer or has a transfer already been rolled? Is there cover available at that exact time in your squad? Will you inevitably want the player back in 4 weeks or 8 weeks or more when his form has inevitably returned? Some of this comes down to patience. Is patience a good thing in FPL?

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod » 16 Apr 2019, 12:22

Sutter Kane wrote:
16 Apr 2019, 08:17
If he's underperforming...what if he's doing what he should be and his price won't drop but he's just got a one game niggle. Then it gets complicated. Can one roll the transfer or has a transfer already been rolled? Is there cover available at that exact time in your squad? Will you inevitably want the player back in 4 weeks or 8 weeks or more when his form has inevitably returned? Some of this comes down to patience. Is patience a good thing in FPL?
If it's just a 1 game niggle then obviously you wouldn't get rid of a player you want to keep. That wouldn't make sense simply on transfer cost let alone budget. How long you might keep an injured or banned player depends on many factors, not least of which is how much he costs and how vital he is to your FPL team. I'd have no problem benching a crocked 4m reserve GK until I had a spare FT or was on a wildcard but I wouldn't give a 11.5m outfield player more than 3 GWs and perhaps not as much as that.

Patience is fine but stubbornness is not. Nothing is inevitable in FPL; it just seems like that because we humans have evolved to remember when bad things happen so that we can avoid those situations again. There isn't a Law of Nature that says that Salah will blank whenever I put the armband on him but it sure seems that way :lol: .

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Sutter Kane » 17 Apr 2019, 11:26

dod wrote:
16 Apr 2019, 12:22
it just seems like that because we humans have evolved to remember when bad things happen so that we can avoid those situations again.
+1. We remember the bad things and often forget the good things. Which makes us risk averse when the potential gains make many risks worth it.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod » 18 Apr 2019, 14:50

The season so far - an assessment

Currently I am sitting at the 27k mark with no chips left to play but an available budget considerably above the top 10k average. It's a disappointing place to be in at this stage of the season so I need to take an honest look at how I got here.

The season started off fine with a solid start that saw me around 15k after GW5. I had the fairly obvious plan of avoiding players who had been involved in the latter stages of the World Cup. There is unlikely to be such an easy path to a good start next season.

In GW12 for the first time ever I used the TC chip in a SGW backing Salah against Fulham. It wasn't a disaster (Salah got a goal and a CS and played the full 90, but no bonus) but it is not an experiment I am keen to repeat. I have always quite liked using the TC early because it makes later planning much easier but it has never worked out for me.

In GW13 I reach my season high ranking around 3k. GW15 sees me play my 1st wildcard which is spectacularly unsuccessful. I try a very risky strategy to cope with the festive fixture congestion and it backfires. My plan was to fill my team with players who had high PPMs but were relatively cheap because they weren't nailed. The idea was that if one didn't play another quality player was subbed in. This plan (which was admittedly a bit 'out there' even for me :roll: ) failed on 2 counts. Firstly I picked up a lot of 1pt cameos, and secondly the players being rotated didn't happen smoothly but rather some GWs they'd all play and in others several would be benched.

This also coincided with major building work starting on my flat (as seen on TV :lol: ) and a trip to China which meant I had very little time for FPL. I make a series of poor decisions and my rank plummets.

GW22 - I play my 2nd wildcard ignoring the advice of just about everyone on here :roll: . It does not go well.

GW27 - My rank hits a season low (since GW3 anyway) of 97k.

GW28 - I play my BB chip. Another failure (11 pts) :( .

GW29 - The bloody builders finally leave :D .

GW32 - I play my FH chip. Finally a decent result from one of my chips. Not spectacular mind; but it stops the rot.

It is hard to be objective when considering how lucky or unlucky one has been over the entire season. There is a tendency to ignore your good fortune and obsess about the bad things that have happened. There is also the tendency to put ones serendipity down to clever planning while refusing to take any responsibility for ones adversities which are instead assigned to the cruel vagaries of fate.

Here's what you need to remember before you tell anyone your 'bad beat' story - 1/ Nobody cares, and, 2/ It was probably your fault anyway. I used to charge £5 to listen to a bad beat story when I played backgammon. If the player telling it was genuinely unlucky I gave the £5 back. If, as was overwhelmingly the case, they had made a mistake that meant that with proper play they should never have even been in the position to get unlucky, then I kept the £5 as a charge for the lesson.

You will find an example above. While I bitch about building work and not having enough time for FPL you will note I still continued to post in this blog (albeit less frequently). Obviously I could have better used that time doing some research for my team. Mea culpa.

I have seemed remarkably adept at owning Salah and Sterling for large portions of the season while cunningly avoiding the GWs where they actually scored any points, which is entirely my fault.

Overall though, I've learned a great deal from this season by starting this blog and I don't regret it at all. I've also received some good advice which I've largely chosen to ignore :lol: . This has highlighted one of my weaknesses, to wit, I get an idea and I want to test it even when it would be prudent not to. In my defence, not all of my ideas are bad ones :lol: , but sometimes I really need to not eat the unusual mushrooms or put the fork in the toaster to see what happens.

I'm already looking forward to next season. I have loads of hypotheses I would like to test, and a lot more game mechanics subjects for discussion. I would probably be well advised to do some actual player research, or at least watch Match of the Day or something, but I probably won't because that side of the game doesn't interest me that much :| .

Good luck to all for the rest of this season 8-) .

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod » 19 Apr 2019, 15:46

Ryan (wol, tot)

Robertson (car) VVD (car) Doherty (BHA, ARS)

Hazard (BUR) Sterling (TOT, MUN) Son (mci, BHA) Pogba (eve, MCI) Mane (car)

Wilson (FUL) Llorente (mci, BHA)

Subs: Guiata (ars) - Rondon (SOU) Digne (MUN) Pereira (whm)


This is my current squad. I have already used my FT to replace Brooks with Sterling. I have 1.3m iTB. I am considering the following options:

1/ Go with the current team and avoid a hit.

2/ Replace Rondon with Jimenez (-4).

3/ Replace Hazard with KDB (-4).

Which option should I go for?

My original plan was option 2/ which is why I took a -8 last GW. I assumed that I would give Jimenez the armband this GW. However I am now considering giving it to Son anyway. He is banned for the game against Ajax so should start both matches this GW and has shown he can score at the Etihad and has a great home fixture against BHA. Wolves are very good at home and also face BHA but have gone off the boil a bit recently. Jimenez has a better 2nd fixture against ARS and a great record at home. If I bring him in it would mean benching Llorente. He would also be useful for GW37 but I would probably dump him for GW38.

Option 3/ has only become an option due to Hazard's knock and Chelsea's progress in the Europa Cup. Sarri thinks he'll be fit for Monday but will his minutes be managed? KDB is looking in great form and has a DGW. I was planning on bringing him in for Hazard next GW anyway. This option would see me play Llorente and bench Rondon.

Then of course there is option 4/ Any other ideas :?:

Any suggestions would be most welcome :mrgreen: .

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Dod's Blog

Post by shmiro » 20 Apr 2019, 02:31

I would be tempted to make any of the -4s. Both look interesting. I would probably tend to make the Jimenez move since Llorente might play only the Man City match (but u should know better than me).
I’m surprised u aren’t considering Sterling for the armband, he is in good form and I expect Pep to start his strongest side now that they have dropped from the CL. But once again, it’s Pep

What do u think of Tripier’s chances to start both DGW games? I’m facing a difficult benching decision (Tripier, Laporte, Valery, Arnold) and any observation might help!


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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod » 20 Apr 2019, 03:50

shmiro wrote:
20 Apr 2019, 02:31
I would be tempted to make any of the -4s. Both look interesting. I would probably tend to make the Jimenez move since Llorente might play only the Man City match (but u should know better than me).
I’m surprised u aren’t considering Sterling for the armband, he is in good form and I expect Pep to start his strongest side now that they have dropped from the CL. But once again, it’s Pep Image

What do u think of Tripier’s chances to start both DGW games? I’m facing a difficult benching decision (Tripier, Laporte, Valery, Arnold) and any observation might help!


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In all honesty I'd be a bit surprised if Trippier started both games. He was run ragged by Sterling in the 1st half of the CL game but did okay in the 2nd. He does have attacking threat but I would definitely play TAA ahead of him (who I can't really see making a cameo; he'll either play or not) and probably Laporte, and even Valery as well. I think with Sissoko out Trippier will get no protection as Sissoko covers so much ground and does a lot of Trips defensive duties for him. I don't fancy our chances of keeping a CS against MCI and KWP could well play against BHA.

I have considered captaining Sterling but I think Son is more nailed to play twice and the home game against BHA (who will have played 4 times in 11 days by the time they face Spurs) looks particularly enticing. Admittedly Spurs have had the same busy schedule but we are used to it. While Sterling is obviously more likely to score at the Etihad, he faces a trip to MUN in his 2nd fixture and to the best of my knowledge he has never scored against them.

Of course this may just be confirmation bias because he is playing my team, and because I never have a clue what side Pep is going to pick :lol: .

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Oxford NZ » 20 Apr 2019, 03:54

Rondon to jimenez for a -4 looks the best. Jimenez is highly owned now and many will TC him. FFFix have him at 82.1% ownership in the top 1k
The KDB move is risky with Pep but if I did not have Sterling and could only afford KDB I would get him. Hazard to kdb after the double is a very good move as you all ready have 3 pool with Mane.
Good luck anyway, and thanks for the entertaining blog. It has made some interesting reading.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod » 20 Apr 2019, 04:22

Oxford NZ wrote:
20 Apr 2019, 03:54
Rondon to jimenez for a -4 looks the best. Jimenez is highly owned now and many will TC him. FFFix have him at 82.1% ownership in the top 1k
The KDB move is risky with Pep but if I did not have Sterling and could only afford KDB I would get him. Hazard to kdb after the double is a very good move as you all ready have 3 pool with Mane.
Good luck anyway, and thanks for the entertaining blog. It has made some interesting reading.
Cheers mate - I appreciate the input. :)

Jimenez was the one player I really wanted to get in my team this GW. Keeping Hazard is also the safest play for me to maintain my lead in my money league. Consequently I have done Hazard :arrow: KDB :lol: .

This isn't just me being contrarian. If I'd brought in Jimenez, and he hauls, I would still lose ground on managers who captained him which is much of that 82.1% ownership. If however he flops and KDB (who has a very low ownership) does well then I will definitely reap the reward. Dropping down the ranking isn't going to bother me. I play to win, and while that is obviously a forlorn hope this season, my other reason for playing is to have fun. Owning a player just to limit the damage to my rank isn't my definition of fun. Audere est facere and all that 8-) .

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by shmiro » 20 Apr 2019, 04:52

dod wrote:
shmiro wrote:
20 Apr 2019, 02:31
I would be tempted to make any of the -4s. Both look interesting. I would probably tend to make the Jimenez move since Llorente might play only the Man City match (but u should know better than me).
I’m surprised u aren’t considering Sterling for the armband, he is in good form and I expect Pep to start his strongest side now that they have dropped from the CL. But once again, it’s Pep Image

What do u think of Tripier’s chances to start both DGW games? I’m facing a difficult benching decision (Tripier, Laporte, Valery, Arnold) and any observation might help!


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In all honesty I'd be a bit surprised if Trippier started both games. He was run ragged by Sterling in the 1st half of the CL game but did okay in the 2nd. He does have attacking threat but I would definitely play TAA ahead of him (who I can't really see making a cameo; he'll either play or not) and probably Laporte, and even Valery as well. I think with Sissoko out Trippier will get no protection as Sissoko covers so much ground and does a lot of Trips defensive duties for him. I don't fancy our chances of keeping a CS against MCI and KWP could well play against BHA.

I have considered captaining Sterling but I think Son is more nailed to play twice and the home game against BHA (who will have played 4 times in 11 days by the time they face Spurs) looks particularly enticing. Admittedly Spurs have had the same busy schedule but we are used to it. While Sterling is obviously more likely to score at the Etihad, he faces a trip to MUN in his 2nd fixture and to the best of my knowledge he has never scored against them.

Of course this may just be confirmation bias because he is playing my team, and because I never have a clue what side Pep is going to pick :lol: .
Haha I actually wanted to ask if the reason is that he plays your team. Can totally get that btw.

Tripier is on my bench currently indeed. I’m just really not sure whether Valery is nailed on for both games as well.


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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Sutter Kane » 23 Apr 2019, 14:34

With regards to your (@Dod) post on the STC, getting Eriksen might be quite risky if he plays tonight but a masterstroke if he doesn't...Either way not sure I'd remove a Liv defender to fund Salah.

Perhaps an injury these midweek games may force people's hands on which route to take.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod » 23 Apr 2019, 17:51

Sutter Kane wrote:
23 Apr 2019, 14:34
With regards to your (@Dod) post on the STC, getting Eriksen might be quite risky if he plays tonight but a masterstroke if he doesn't...Either way not sure I'd remove a Liv defender to fund Salah.

Perhaps an injury these midweek games may force people's hands on which route to take.
Whatever I do I will be waiting for the pressers. I wouldn't normally consider taking out a LIV def for a hit just to get Salah in but he's playing Huddersfield! :D

Overall though. a lot will depend on this GWs results. My rival is playing his BB this GW. I went into this GW with a 49pt lead on my main rival but currently this GW I've lost 30 pts of that and my lead is down to 19 pts. Removing KDB (who I assume will not play) and players we have in common, he still has Kolasinac, Dunk, Valery, Hughes, Ward-Prowse, Murray, and Lacazette (c) vs my Doherty, Sterling, Pogba, Llorente, and Son (c), to play. Anything could happen.

If, as I expect, he TCs Salah I am leaving myself very open to a Salah haul if I don't at least cover him (much as I hate that term and concept).

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Sutter Kane » 23 Apr 2019, 18:49

Ah yes, I've had a closer look at your ML situation and I tend to agree with you. The results of today/tomorrow's games might be quite telling in how far you are in front by deadline. Does he have history of captaining Mane at all as he may TC him? You're right, you probably have to get Salah but if Lacazette gets a couple of goals, you'll want differentials not cover so definite wait and see!

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod » 23 Apr 2019, 19:28

My thoughts exactly SK. I'm liking the team news pre-match as well. Llorente starts (though he's bound to be subbed off) and has Trippier to supply him. Murray benched for BHA and it doesn't look anything like their strongest team. They might be keeping their powder dry for NEW on Sunday.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Sutter Kane » 23 Apr 2019, 19:33

Hope Llorente is subbed off to have a decent chance of starting the weekend game. 60 minutes would do nicely, even if he only grabs an assist.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod » 25 Apr 2019, 15:16

A pretty horrible GW starting with the KDB injury and my captain Son unusually failing to convert numerous good chances against City. I also left my highest scoring player's (Digne) 14 pts on the bench along with my highest scoring striker. 69 pts (-4) saw my rank virtually double.

On the plus side my mini-league rival only closed the gap by 15 pts (13 of which were due to his use of the BB chip). I still have a 29 pt buffer and an extra 5m in purchasing power. He does have his last remaining chip however - the TC - while I am chipless :( .

He has 4 players who could realistically hurt me this season. Hazard, Vardy, Lacazette and Salah. I'm not worried about Lacazette. His ceiling this season has been 12 pts and he only has the BHA home match in GW32 as a realistic TC option. Both Lacazette's 12 pt returns came in away games. If he TCs Laca I'd been very happy. He might though as he's an Arsenal fan and gave him the captaincy this GW but that might be explained by Laca being his only good player with a DGW.

Vardy is not a concern either. He could certainly fill his boots against woeful travelers ( :wink: ) Arsenal. I don't think he would want to bet against his own team though, and Vardy's fixtures after that are not good.

Hazard is a possible TC option at home to Watford in GW37. Eden scored 15 pts in the reverse fixture and he has been much better at home this season, but if I need to I can easily bring him in for Sterling that GW.

That leaves Salah. My rival has been reluctant to captain Salah this season but if you are ever going to do it it would be this GW, at home to hapless Huddersfield. He could give the TC to Mane instead but I already own Mane so that isn't the differential he needs. I currently own Robertson, VVD and Mane. He has Alisson, Salah and Mane.

I hate to do it but I think the wisest choice is to take a hit to do Robinson & KDB :arrow: Stones & Salah, and then captain Mo. It's not something I would have considered if there were more GWs to play (I'd just replace KDB with Hazard) but here I think discretion is the better part of valour as I don't have anything else to play for this season :( .

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Bobby Fetta » 25 Apr 2019, 21:41

dod wrote:
25 Apr 2019, 15:16
I hate to do it but I think the wisest choice is to take a hit to do Robinson & KDB :arrow: Stones & Salah, and then captain Mo.
Stones seems very high risk - he misses a lot of games - or have you worked out the rotation and think he'll play when you need him? The rest seems logical to me though.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 25 Apr 2019, 22:40

Would a certain starting defender from the Brighton - Newcastle game not be a better bet, presuming approx £5.2m budget? That has dull game written all over it

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod » 26 Apr 2019, 01:15

Bobby Fetta wrote:
25 Apr 2019, 21:41
dod wrote:
25 Apr 2019, 15:16
I hate to do it but I think the wisest choice is to take a hit to do Robinson & KDB :arrow: Stones & Salah, and then captain Mo.
Stones seems very high risk - he misses a lot of games - or have you worked out the rotation and think he'll play when you need him? The rest seems logical to me though.
Originally I wanted PVA to as my defender replacement but that would mean losing VVD instead of Robinson as I was 0.1m short. Then PVA didn't play last GW and that put me right off that plan. There's always AWB of course.

SP - I'm not keen on the BHA or NEW options as they have poor fixtures after meeting each other and it's not just about this GW.

I could go Stones or Kompany but both are rotation risks. I just see Stones as the most likely to get bonus pts if he does play. I could be persuaded that I am wrong about that :lol: .

I'm actually open to any suggestions for the defender spot. I have 5.4m to spend and my other defs are VVD, Digne, Doherty, and Pereira. My current shortlist is - Stones, Kompany, AWB, Shaw, Bednarek/Valery. Do I go safe with AWB or Bednarek or take a chance of better returns with one of the others? :?

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 26 Apr 2019, 05:20

Fair point re BHA/Newcastle after GW36. I made a cursory assessment of your likely three defenders each week and presumed that you had decent cover for the other weeks.

A couple of pages back you reflected on your wildcard and the perils of bringing in second string players. Great if they rotated with each other in a closed system, however to paraphrase (code for it’s 5am and I’m not rereading everything!) they didn’t play when you needed them to. Add Stones to that list. City need every point and have no need to rotate defenders. They might. But if they do, surely the more solid defender (e.g. Kompany) would come in rather than the better ball player more prone to error and concession of a sloppy goal? Plus with Mendy back Laporte isn’t needed at full back either adding to competition at CB.

Without the player you bring in playing you’re taking more risk than you need. The hit already puts you four behind. If Stones becomes a dead slot in your team the lost points might well offset the expected ‘third’ return of Salah, who’s not hit double figures for a dozen game weeks. I do understand the logic behind covering your rival. It could cost you 9 point swing to do it...
A. Robertson’s clean sheet +6 (not guaranteed but as you say Huddersfield are woeful, and he’s also got realistic assist potential) plus zero hits
B. Stones’ one point bench appearance and a four hit to make the switch (-3)
Plus, of course, since Salah did last hit double figures Robertson has outscored him.

Anyway, presuming that you will take the hit as it’s a move to minimise risk, let the second transfer be a safer one

Edit: ‘offsetting the third return’ is a poor way to phrase what I mean there. I should perhaps rewrite it more concisely rather than hold my hand up in an edit. Here goes: ‘Don’t risk Stones’ :wink: :lol:
Last edited by Smurphy's Paw on 26 Apr 2019, 05:38, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod » 26 Apr 2019, 05:32

Good points SP. In fact because I am out all day tomorrow and won't get back until after the deadline I had already made my transfers before your second post. I brought in AWB as my defender. This leaves me the exact money to be able to do Wilson :arrow: Rashford if I want to in GW37. For once I've actually taken someone else's advice :lol: which is something I probably should have done far more often this season :roll: .

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