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EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

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Will the UK leave on Halloween?

Poll ended at 16 Sep 2019, 08:56

Yes with the May deal
1
2%
Yes with a Boris deal
5
9%
Yes with no deal
12
21%
No there will be a further extension
31
55%
No Article 50 will be revoked
7
13%
 
Total votes: 56

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Tacalabala » 18 Mar 2019, 20:09

forestfan wrote:
18 Mar 2019, 20:00
I think there's an increasing chance that things happen so last minute that we get to 30th March and aren't quite sure whether we've actually left or not, and legal challenges are going on left, right and centre.
Chill out, May is not going to go no deal, she voted against it herself last week!

We're going with the June extension, but it is more can kicking.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Billy Whiz » 18 Mar 2019, 20:18

But that "never No deal" vote is not legally binding. Parliament can vote for or against anything it likes, but without legal enactment it's only an expression of MPs' wishes. The default position is still that we leave on March 29 with no deal.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by forestfan » 18 Mar 2019, 20:36

Yeah, we still have to pass something legally through Parliament to stop no-deal from happening, in seven days of scheduled parliamentary time. There's a number of things that could prevent that - including legal disputes, wilful sabotage, or just more chaotic confusion as to what people are voting for.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by bspittles » 18 Mar 2019, 20:38

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the EU insist on a second referendum as part of a deal for an extension.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by eastcentral1 » 18 Mar 2019, 20:57

forestfan wrote:Yeah, we still have to pass something legally through Parliament to stop no-deal from happening, in seven days of scheduled parliamentary time. There's a number of things that could prevent that - including legal disputes, wilful sabotage, or just more chaotic confusion as to what people are voting for.
Or just revoke Article 50 (although for obvious political reasons the government will instead pass the necessary legislation)

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Striker » 19 Mar 2019, 03:05

forestfan wrote:
18 Mar 2019, 20:00
I think there's an increasing chance that things happen so last minute that we get to 30th March and aren't quite sure whether we've actually left or not, and legal challenges are going on left, right and centre.
So when we wake up on March 30th, we'll all be asking are we still in or out. And the answer will be don't know, not sure, or it depends. :wink:

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by blahblah » 19 Mar 2019, 11:53

eastcentral1 wrote:
18 Mar 2019, 20:57
forestfan wrote:Yeah, we still have to pass something legally through Parliament to stop no-deal from happening, in seven days of scheduled parliamentary time. There's a number of things that could prevent that - including legal disputes, wilful sabotage, or just more chaotic confusion as to what people are voting for.
Or just revoke Article 50 (although for obvious political reasons the government will instead pass the necessary legislation)
Yep.

Are many here coming to the only solution being a No Deal vs Remain 2nd Ref?

From memory No Deal wasn't advocated by (m)any Brexiteers, as it was Hard and Soft?

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by DavidLloydIsAHero » 19 Mar 2019, 12:19

blahblah wrote:
19 Mar 2019, 11:53
eastcentral1 wrote:
18 Mar 2019, 20:57
forestfan wrote:Yeah, we still have to pass something legally through Parliament to stop no-deal from happening, in seven days of scheduled parliamentary time. There's a number of things that could prevent that - including legal disputes, wilful sabotage, or just more chaotic confusion as to what people are voting for.
Or just revoke Article 50 (although for obvious political reasons the government will instead pass the necessary legislation)
Yep.

Are many here coming to the only solution being a No Deal vs Remain 2nd Ref?

From memory No Deal wasn't advocated by (m)any Brexiteers, as it was Hard and Soft?
Before the referendum I don't remember anyone advocating for a hard Brexit either, all the indications were we would remain in the customs union.

Obviously we now know that isn't really possible...

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by raoul » 19 Mar 2019, 12:36

David Luiz Is A Hero wrote:
19 Mar 2019, 12:19
blahblah wrote:
19 Mar 2019, 11:53
eastcentral1 wrote:
18 Mar 2019, 20:57
forestfan wrote:Yeah, we still have to pass something legally through Parliament to stop no-deal from happening, in seven days of scheduled parliamentary time. There's a number of things that could prevent that - including legal disputes, wilful sabotage, or just more chaotic confusion as to what people are voting for.
Or just revoke Article 50 (although for obvious political reasons the government will instead pass the necessary legislation)
Yep.

Are many here coming to the only solution being a No Deal vs Remain 2nd Ref?

From memory No Deal wasn't advocated by (m)any Brexiteers, as it was Hard and Soft?
Before the referendum I don't remember anyone advocating for a hard Brexit either, all the indications were we would remain in the customs union.

Obviously we now know that isn't really possible...
isn't it? Why not?

OK, so if we stay in the Customs Union we have to accept the EU will do deals without our input as we will have left. But we could try to maintain some input, and even if that gets nowhere why do we think other leading EU members would want materially different things out of trade deals to us? Would not having a say really be a problem?

OK, we would not be able to do our own trade deals. Whilst I see the point, I suspect we would be better off being part of a 28 country bloc in terms of the deals we could get, and I do not see this issue as one of the biggest for Brexiteers.

And staying in the Customs Union would solve the NI border issue presumably.

Wejoined something called the European Economic Community, for economic cooperation. Staying in the Customs Union would seem consistent with that would it not?

So ... what's blocking this option from being a reality?

(and apologies for my ignorance if the answer is obvious)

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by DavidLloydIsAHero » 19 Mar 2019, 12:42

Nothing you say there is incorrect to my knowledge, it is just the not having a say bit is unpalatable to say the least. Whilst our trade aims are fairly closely aligned at the moment there is no reason to believe they will stay that way and there is no Article 50 style out of it should we dislike the direction the EU move in. It basically gives us the same situation as now with no say at all and no way out, so why not just stay.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by fancy dan » 19 Mar 2019, 12:51

A customs union would not in itself avoid all customs checks at the Irish border, if we diverge from the EU's regulatory standards: https://theconversation.com/would-stayi ... land-92485

I guess not making our own trade deals would mean less incentive for us to diverge from EU standards? But then if we're following their tariffs/quotas and sticking to their standards, people from both sides of the argument would quite reasonably ask, 'What's the point of leaving?'

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by raoul » 19 Mar 2019, 13:14

fancy dan wrote:
19 Mar 2019, 12:51
A customs union would not in itself avoid all customs checks at the Irish border, if we diverge from the EU's regulatory standards: https://theconversation.com/would-stayi ... land-92485

I guess not making our own trade deals would mean less incentive for us to diverge from EU standards? But then if we're following their tariffs/quotas and sticking to their standards, people from both sides of the argument would quite reasonably ask, 'What's the point of leaving?'
because leaving the single market would allow the UK to control migration, which is surely the top (or close to top) issue for the majority of Brexiteers.

And yes, I know we can already control migration better than we do. The point is that a customs union seems an inherently sensible idea to me. I really do not understand the logic of thinking 1 country will get better (or even equivalent) deals to a bloc of 28.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by eastcentral1 » 19 Mar 2019, 14:09

blahblah wrote:
19 Mar 2019, 11:53
eastcentral1 wrote:
18 Mar 2019, 20:57
forestfan wrote:Yeah, we still have to pass something legally through Parliament to stop no-deal from happening, in seven days of scheduled parliamentary time. There's a number of things that could prevent that - including legal disputes, wilful sabotage, or just more chaotic confusion as to what people are voting for.
Or just revoke Article 50 (although for obvious political reasons the government will instead pass the necessary legislation)
Yep.

Are many here coming to the only solution being a No Deal vs Remain 2nd Ref?

From memory No Deal wasn't advocated by (m)any Brexiteers, as it was Hard and Soft?
Not really. As i mentioned above, I think we must leave the EU. However, it is now clear that a hard core or Brexiters will not accept any Brexit that falls short of the ideological Brexit in their heads. I therefore think the government should forget about them, cross the aisle and seek Labour's agreement to a more moderate Brexit.
David Luiz Is A Hero wrote:
19 Mar 2019, 12:42
Nothing you say there is incorrect to my knowledge, it is just the not having a say bit is unpalatable to say the least. Whilst our trade aims are fairly closely aligned at the moment there is no reason to believe they will stay that way and there is no Article 50 style out of it should we dislike the direction the EU move in. It basically gives us the same situation as now with no say at all and no way out, so why not just stay.
Yes, it's not great but that is a consequence of leaving the EU. The other options (e.g. the brilliant deal the Leavers anticipated, staying in the EU, or no deal) are either fantasy or even more unpalatable.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by DavidLloydIsAHero » 19 Mar 2019, 14:14

eastcentral1 wrote:
19 Mar 2019, 14:09


David Luiz Is A Hero wrote:
19 Mar 2019, 12:42
Nothing you say there is incorrect to my knowledge, it is just the not having a say bit is unpalatable to say the least. Whilst our trade aims are fairly closely aligned at the moment there is no reason to believe they will stay that way and there is no Article 50 style out of it should we dislike the direction the EU move in. It basically gives us the same situation as now with no say at all and no way out, so why not just stay.
Yes, it's not great but that is a consequence of leaving the EU. The other options (e.g. the brilliant deal the Leavers anticipated, staying in the EU, or no deal) are either fantasy or even more unpalatable.
Which do you consider remaining to be, fantasy or unpalatable? I'll happily argue against either...

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by forestfan » 19 Mar 2019, 17:59

blahblah wrote:
19 Mar 2019, 11:53
eastcentral1 wrote:
18 Mar 2019, 20:57
forestfan wrote:Yeah, we still have to pass something legally through Parliament to stop no-deal from happening, in seven days of scheduled parliamentary time. There's a number of things that could prevent that - including legal disputes, wilful sabotage, or just more chaotic confusion as to what people are voting for.
Or just revoke Article 50 (although for obvious political reasons the government will instead pass the necessary legislation)
Yep.

Are many here coming to the only solution being a No Deal vs Remain 2nd Ref?

From memory No Deal wasn't advocated by (m)any Brexiteers, as it was Hard and Soft?
Yeah, many are talking as if no-deal and hard Brexit are the same thing, but they’re not. We could have a hard Brexit with a transitional period and an eventual trade deal. Nobody was campaigning saying we should leave by means of spending the best part of three years going around in circles then blowing up half our supply chains overnight when we’re totally unprepared for the new regime.

Sounds like the PM is being backed into a corner by her own government as well as the EU, with her “we’ll have a short extension, unless we need a long one” non-policy. Several Cabinet ministers preferring an immediate no-deal to a kick the can a long way down the road. Barnier and EU leaders not buying a long extension with no clear purpose. And when exactly will Parliament get another Brexit motion of any sort to debate and vote on? What topics of great importance are they discussing this week?

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by blahblah » 19 Mar 2019, 18:32

I'm sure the EU would extend for that Ref, which will take at least 22 weeks, allegedly.

The next reet laff will be the Euro Elections when Lab and Tory debacles lose out to No Deal and Remain candidates - imagine if they joined forces for that Ref? (Not to mention that there could easily be a GE this year as well.)

It is going to be a long way back for Labour, and further for the Tories. But who\what fills the vacuum?

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by liquidfootball2 » 19 Mar 2019, 21:19

Trust in the political parties must be nearing an all time low and the prospect of a second referendum with remain as an option will probably take it a level or two still lower.

I would much rather we were honest about it and remain by just cancelling article 50, at least then people can then see the deceit for what it is. To be so dismissive and blatant about it isn't realistic though, and the public relations charade of the losing 2016 choice (almost 50%) vs any option most leavers won't vote for - will possibly take place.

Any prospect of the wrong choice winning or notion of democracy will be binned at the same time for the foreseeable future.

Tbh I'm glad the establishment and not the people have got their way, for me no deal would have been an absolute disaster.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by liquidfootball2 » 19 Mar 2019, 21:29

For me the danger with people losing faith in democracy can be seen throughout the world both in the past and present and it tends to encourage extremism on the right and left.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if it happened here with momentum and Corbyn on one side and The ERG clowns on the other - some choice.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Zimmerman » 19 Mar 2019, 21:46

Is it deceitful?

I know we like to revel in their apparent incompetence and buffoonery etc. but I don’t believe any of them are genuinely trying to shaft the electorate or ignore democracy.

It’s genuinely a vey very complex situation and leaving was never going to be easy. It’s ridiculous to think it would be and it’s just more foolhardy ignorance from those that think it’s as simple as walking away from an empty pub with no atmosphere.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Billy Whiz » 19 Mar 2019, 21:56

David Luiz Is A Hero wrote:
19 Mar 2019, 14:14
eastcentral1 wrote:
19 Mar 2019, 14:09


David Luiz Is A Hero wrote:
19 Mar 2019, 12:42
Nothing you say there is incorrect to my knowledge, it is just the not having a say bit is unpalatable to say the least. Whilst our trade aims are fairly closely aligned at the moment there is no reason to believe they will stay that way and there is no Article 50 style out of it should we dislike the direction the EU move in. It basically gives us the same situation as now with no say at all and no way out, so why not just stay.
Yes, it's not great but that is a consequence of leaving the EU. The other options (e.g. the brilliant deal the Leavers anticipated, staying in the EU, or no deal) are either fantasy or even more unpalatable.
Which do you consider remaining to be, fantasy or unpalatable? I'll happily argue against either...
Unpalatable, because we had a referendum that voted to Leave, and the Govt pledged to abide by that decision.

Although as I've argued before, I don't see why, three years later and having got nowhere, we can't have a 2nd ref. As Bercow might put it, the situation has substantially changed

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Billy Whiz » 19 Mar 2019, 22:04

liquidfootball2 wrote:
19 Mar 2019, 21:29
For me the danger with people losing faith in democracy can be seen throughout the world both in the past and present and it tends to encourage extremism on the right and left.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if it happened here with momentum and Corbyn on one side and The ERG clowns on the other - some choice.
There will always be lunatic fringes, but I don't think the public at large will fall for either the ERG's kamikaze clowns or Corbyn's schoolboy Marxists.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by forestfan » 19 Mar 2019, 22:47

Billy Whiz wrote:
19 Mar 2019, 22:04
liquidfootball2 wrote:
19 Mar 2019, 21:29
For me the danger with people losing faith in democracy can be seen throughout the world both in the past and present and it tends to encourage extremism on the right and left.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if it happened here with momentum and Corbyn on one side and The ERG clowns on the other - some choice.
There will always be lunatic fringes, but I don't think the public at large will fall for either the ERG's kamikaze clowns or Corbyn's schoolboy Marxists.
That’s likely to be the choice facing us next time though... the Lib Dems are like a wounded animal waiting to be put out of its misery, remaining an irrelevance in a political scenario that should be made for them. TIG remains just a handful of homeless MPs for the time being, a long way from being a party ready to field 650 candidates. The Greens have never made it into the mainstream in 30 years of trying, and we can’t vote for the SNP in England!

It might be a choice of frying pan or fire, but either Corbyn or (insert name of hardline Brexiter Tory, probably Boris) will be PM after the next general election.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by liquidfootball2 » 19 Mar 2019, 22:57

Zimmerman wrote:
19 Mar 2019, 21:46
Is it deceitful?

I know we like to revel in their apparent incompetence and buffoonery etc. but I don’t believe any of them are genuinely trying to shaft the electorate or ignore democracy.

It’s genuinely a vey very complex situation and leaving was never going to be easy. It’s ridiculous to think it would be and it’s just more foolhardy ignorance from those that think it’s as simple as walking away from an empty pub with no atmosphere.

I quite agree, in effect leave was never really an option, with such an overwhelmingly remain supporting house and a very politicised and partisan speaker (*).

I won't go into the background again but Cameron felt obliged to hold a referendum where only one choice could actually be effected very easily.

A tortuously difficult and prolonged negotiation was always likely if the wrong choice won, and to actually leave has proved beyond an ineffectual government with the inbuilt opposition both here and in Europe proving far too much.

The establishment and civil service always wanted remain (as I do) and it was always going to be remain or if absolutely unavoidable, something extremely close to that that would win out.

(*) Bercow was well within his rights to use a 400 years old house rule last used in 1920 to ban the third vote, and indeed it would have been lost/delayed anyway but I'm referring to his whole tenure as speaker not just this week.

Betty Boothroyd was the last excellent speaker, well respected by both sides she ruled even handedly and fairly.

You can usually tell a poor or a politicised one, as they tend to be well supported by one side of the house and generally loathed by the other.

John Bercow is a marmite figure, full of his own position's grandeur and importance, controversy has always been his friend and inconsistent application of precedent his prerogative. He's never happier than when facing an angry group of MPs. and despite originally being a Tory is now deeply loathed by them.

A good speaker is rather like a good referee, applying the rule of law without fuss or favour, and a bad speaker, rather like a bad referee, one that usually makes the news all about himself.

John Bercow usually makes the news all about himself if given the opportunity, a self-serving and self promoting character, i'm afraid he falls into the latter category.
Last edited by liquidfootball2 on 20 Mar 2019, 08:52, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Billy Whiz » 19 Mar 2019, 23:12

forestfan wrote:
19 Mar 2019, 22:47
... the Lib Dems are like a wounded animal waiting to be put out of its misery, remaining an irrelevance in a political scenario that should be made for them. TIG remains just a handful of homeless MPs for the time being, a long way from being a party ready to field 650 candidates. The Greens have never made it into the mainstream in 30 years of trying, and we can’t vote for the SNP in England!
Surprisingly, the SDP (Social Democratic Party - the party that put the Dem into the Lib-Dems) is still going, and launched its New Declaration of policy last year. I've just skimmed through it and I agree with about 90% of it. So that's me sorted for the next general election :wink:

https://sdp.org.uk/new-declaration/

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by forestfan » 19 Mar 2019, 23:42

Billy Whiz wrote:
19 Mar 2019, 23:12
forestfan wrote:
19 Mar 2019, 22:47
... the Lib Dems are like a wounded animal waiting to be put out of its misery, remaining an irrelevance in a political scenario that should be made for them. TIG remains just a handful of homeless MPs for the time being, a long way from being a party ready to field 650 candidates. The Greens have never made it into the mainstream in 30 years of trying, and we can’t vote for the SNP in England!
Surprisingly, the SDP (Social Democratic Party - the party that put the Dem into the Lib-Dems) is still going, and launched its New Declaration of policy last year. I've just skimmed through it and I agree with about 90% of it. So that's me sorted for the next general election :wink:

https://sdp.org.uk/new-declaration/
Received a whole 469 votes in the last one... how many candidates did they put up?

Interesting that they’re pro-Brexit while sitting somewhere in the centre of the political spectrum (and seemingly have a former UKIP MEP among their ranks).

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Billy Whiz » 19 Mar 2019, 23:46

"former" being the operative word ...

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by liquidfootball2 » 20 Mar 2019, 07:42

May will apparently now only ask for a three month extension, presumably to try her deal again, although the EU will want to know the reasoning and it's entirely up to them what they may offer.

Three ERG MP's have been phoning their friends in Hungary etc trying to encourage opposition to any extension.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by forestfan » 20 Mar 2019, 08:04

Billy Whiz wrote:
19 Mar 2019, 23:46
"former" being the operative word ...
Well, obviously, because you can’t represent two parties at once :wink:

They do appear to favour a WTO Brexit in the absence of a better deal though... presumably they wouldn’t support lowering standards for the Trump deal either, so how exactly would they implement “social” policies in the face of trade barriers and rampant inflation? :?

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by forestfan » 20 Mar 2019, 08:23

So, looks like just a three-month extension being requested then. Self-preservation trumps everything else again, so a strategy of more running down the clock, flogging dead horses and chasing unicorns, with another (probably more definitive) cliff edge to follow. :roll:

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by blahblah » 20 Mar 2019, 08:29

forestfan wrote:
20 Mar 2019, 08:23
So, looks like just a three-month extension being requested then. Self-preservation trumps everything else again, so a strategy of more running down the clock, flogging dead horses and chasing unicorns, with another (probably more definitive) cliff edge to follow. :roll:
While singing "We"re off to see the Wizard...." with onlookers commenting that you can't get to the end of a Rainbow.

Does she really think that delivering anything and calling it Breakfast will make her the Nation"s Darling and an Electoral victory?

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