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trampie
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Post Brexit UK break up (and Wales being great)

Post by trampie » 11 Feb 2019, 15:22

The likely outcome of Brexit is the UK breaking up.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by murf » 11 Feb 2019, 15:27

trampie wrote:
11 Feb 2019, 15:22
The likely outcome of Brexit is the UK breaking up.
Sturgeon would want to take the Scots out and will push for a second referendum (Hadrian's Wall II - get your contract bids in now).
The Irish unionists - no way.
The welsh? You'd know better than me but I haven't seen/heard enough appetite for that from enough people to even get to a referendum off the ground. Voted comfortably to leave the EU I believe.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by trampie » 11 Feb 2019, 17:31

What you dont think Brexit will have a negative effect on the 'union' ?

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by RomynPG » 11 Feb 2019, 17:44

It could well do.

Once we've left the EU and the things that Brexiteers were led to believe were the EUs fault don't get any better they'll find someone else to blame.

People near the bottom (for want of a better word) - those with poor housing and prospects etc - have been convinced that it's immigrants to blame for their woes rather than govt policy and the increasing wealth gap.

We're going to end up eating ourselves.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by forestfan » 11 Feb 2019, 19:12

murf wrote:
11 Feb 2019, 15:27
trampie wrote:
11 Feb 2019, 15:22
The likely outcome of Brexit is the UK breaking up.
Sturgeon would want to take the Scots out and will push for a second referendum (Hadrian's Wall II - get your contract bids in now).
The Irish unionists - no way.
The welsh? You'd know better than me but I haven't seen/heard enough appetite for that from enough people to even get to a referendum off the ground. Voted comfortably to leave the EU I believe.
For all that Sturgeon’s whinging grates, the question has fundamentally changed from the first time, so I do think Scotland deserves the chance to choose between UK and EU, and I wouldn’t blame them for choosing the latter (and a Scottish passport would come in handy!)

NI seems to be moving demographically closer to a republican majority (higher Catholic birth rates, presumably...) and there is provision for a border poll in the GFA. NI will be worst hit by a disastrous Brexit, and the DUP could just be helping along the very thing they exist to oppose.

As for Wales, independence support is low and they voted for Brexit, but if Scotland makes a success of it there might be a shift of opinion towards following suit. Even England itself could fragment in the longer term, the biggest divides are North-South, cosmopolitan cities vs. deprived former industrial towns, etc. Regions with strong identity may start to form movements for devolution and eventually full independence.

It will be exactly what the Conservative and Unionist party deserves :wink:

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by murf » 11 Feb 2019, 19:20

Think you are over egging it a bit but all feasibly possible. As I noted a page or 2 back, the DUP won well over half the seats so the constituency borders are well in their favour even if the population is around 50:50 so there will be reluctance to do anything to weaken the Union for a while yet.

Not sure why the Conservative paurty have always been against Scottish devolution. Think of the majority they'd have in parliament....

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Zimmerman » 11 Feb 2019, 19:35

Is it for their oil/gas (which was downplayed at the time) or is it the extra clout it gives the U.K. within the EU. Does the U.K. get x amount of representatives or is it x amount for England and x amount for the other home nations?

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Billy Whiz » 11 Feb 2019, 19:55

It's for historical reasons I think. As I said earlier, England, Scotland and Wales (as Great Britain) has officially been one entity since 1707 and unofficially since 1603, so there's centuries of tradition there. The union with Northern Ireland has been more of a bumpy ride, it being part of Ireland until 1922, so I'm not sure there's such a strong cultural connection. Unless you're a died-in-the-wool bowler-hatted Orangeman, of course .....

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by murf » 11 Feb 2019, 20:16

Billy Whiz wrote:It's for historical reasons I think. As I said earlier, England, Scotland and Wales (as Great Britain) has officially been one entity since 1707 and unofficially since 1603, so there's centuries of tradition there. The union with Northern Ireland has been more of a bumpy ride, it being part of Ireland until 1922, so I'm not sure there's such a strong cultural connection. Unless you're a died-in-the-wool bowler-hatted Orangeman, of course .....
You are right (as was oil post above) but we are talking self serving politcians here. Why risk a Labour UK government when you are a Conservative who could snooze into a Tory England/Wales/NI government?

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by forestfan » 11 Feb 2019, 23:19

It's a fairly recent phenomenon that the Tories have been more ror less wiped out in Scotland, and that's been rebalanced recently by Labour's own capitulation north of the border - though if the SNP hold the balance of power they will obviously look to the left.

It's one of their core beliefs, protecting the union of 400 years, not allowing the break up of their country... it is a double-edged sword for them though, electorally.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by trampie » 12 Feb 2019, 19:13

Billy Whiz wrote:
11 Feb 2019, 19:55
It's for historical reasons I think. As I said earlier, England, Scotland and Wales (as Great Britain) has officially been one entity since 1707 and unofficially since 1603, so there's centuries of tradition there. The union with Northern Ireland has been more of a bumpy ride, it being part of Ireland until 1922, so I'm not sure there's such a strong cultural connection. Unless you're a died-in-the-wool bowler-hatted Orangeman, of course .....
It depends on whether you accept invasion and colonisation as being legitimate, Wales has a claim on the whole of Britain up to the central belt of Scotland.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by trampie » 12 Feb 2019, 19:20

murf wrote:
11 Feb 2019, 20:16
Billy Whiz wrote:It's for historical reasons I think. As I said earlier, England, Scotland and Wales (as Great Britain) has officially been one entity since 1707 and unofficially since 1603, so there's centuries of tradition there. The union with Northern Ireland has been more of a bumpy ride, it being part of Ireland until 1922, so I'm not sure there's such a strong cultural connection. Unless you're a died-in-the-wool bowler-hatted Orangeman, of course .....
You are right (as was oil post above) but we are talking self serving politcians here. Why risk a Labour UK government when you are a Conservative who could snooze into a Tory England/Wales/NI government?
The 4 countries that make up the UK all voted for different parties to each other as the main parties in their own countries and its been like that for the last couple of General Elections.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Zimmerman » 12 Feb 2019, 19:21

As someone once said, the English are wink. We on the other hand got colonised by wink.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by trampie » 12 Feb 2019, 19:30

Just been viewing some polls in NI [and the republic] and in Scotland and if its a no deal Brexit then the UK could be gone in the short term.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by trampie » 12 Feb 2019, 19:32

One laughable irony of this is quite a few leavers are staunch 'unionists' and by achieving a 'leave' vote it might well mean the end of the UK state, you could not make it up.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by RomynPG » 12 Feb 2019, 19:35

trampie wrote:
12 Feb 2019, 19:30
Just been viewing some polls in NI [and the republic] and in Scotland and if its a no deal Brexit then the UK could be gone in the short term.
Care to share some links?

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by RomynPG » 12 Feb 2019, 19:49

Why support for Welsh Independence could hit 40% by 2020

Appears to contain lots of assumptions, projections and wishful thinking to me.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Tacalabala » 12 Feb 2019, 19:54

I don't want to be a spoil sport, but if this becomes a Welsh independence feasibility discussion I'll have to split it off into another thread.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by trampie » 12 Feb 2019, 20:18

RomynPG wrote:
12 Feb 2019, 19:35
trampie wrote:
12 Feb 2019, 19:30
Just been viewing some polls in NI [and the republic] and in Scotland and if its a no deal Brexit then the UK could be gone in the short term.
Care to share some links?
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1071664676214398981
https://twitter.com/ClaireByrneLive/sta ... 7613077504
https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/10 ... 5034803201
As regards Wales about a quarter of the population of Wales was born in England, could that have skewed the EU referendum result in Wales ?, possibly.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by trampie » 12 Feb 2019, 20:26

https://twitter.com/DEADLIVEUK/status/1 ... 8507211777
This map was a snap shot of Welsh territory just as the Germans were coming over here.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by trampie » 12 Feb 2019, 20:32

RomynPG wrote:
12 Feb 2019, 19:49
Why support for Welsh Independence could hit 40% by 2020

Appears to contain lots of assumptions, projections and wishful thinking to me.
Wales is totally different to Scotland and NI in that it has loads of migrants from England, if Wales was to go independent then these migrants would probably have to vote to break away from England in sizable numbers, not impossible the way England is going as regards far right policies, also they think that Wales is more British than where they come from.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by trampie » 12 Feb 2019, 23:01

Did you eyeball the polls you asked for RomynPG ?

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by RomynPG » 12 Feb 2019, 23:36

trampie wrote:
12 Feb 2019, 23:01
Did you eyeball the polls you asked for RomynPG ?
Yes - thanks for those.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by trampie » 12 Feb 2019, 23:40

RomynPG wrote:
12 Feb 2019, 23:36
trampie wrote:
12 Feb 2019, 23:01
Did you eyeball the polls you asked for RomynPG ?
Yes - thanks for those.
No problem.

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EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Billy Whiz » 14 Feb 2019, 18:32

trampie wrote:
12 Feb 2019, 20:26
https://twitter.com/DEADLIVEUK/status/1 ... 8507211777
This map was a snap shot of Welsh territory just as the Germans were coming over here.
That map, which shows most of what is now England as "Welsh" circa AD 500, is absurd. This is a Brexit thread so I'll just point out that in AD 500 even Wales itself wasn't a united political entity, let alone being in a position to apparently colonise or occupy "England" (which despite the map referring to "English colonies", itself didn't exist politically until at least the 9th century). Oh, and the fact that there is no documentary or archaeological evidence of a Welsh empire spreading across Britain in the 6th century. Or any other century.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by murf » 14 Feb 2019, 19:56

I had to look up King Alfred when I saw that map because he, effectively, started the ball rolling to unite kingdoms into what became England and then ultimately the UK/GB. Even in Alfred's time there was no real Welsh power. Maybe some weird cartologist was claiming his Mercia was Welsh on that map but, no, even then it was 300-400 years out. He was 9th century.


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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by trampie » 15 Feb 2019, 08:34

Billy Whiz wrote:
14 Feb 2019, 18:32
trampie wrote:
12 Feb 2019, 20:26
https://twitter.com/DEADLIVEUK/status/1 ... 8507211777
This map was a snap shot of Welsh territory just as the Germans were coming over here.
That map, which shows most of what is now England as "Welsh" circa AD 500, is absurd. This is a Brexit thread so I'll just point out that in AD 500 even Wales itself wasn't a united political entity, let alone being in a position to apparently colonise or occupy "England" (which despite the map referring to "English colonies", itself didn't exist politically until at least the 9th century). Oh, and the fact that there is no documentary or archaeological evidence of a Welsh empire spreading across Britain in the 6th century. Or any other century.
The Welsh and the Ancient Briton was synonomous with each other, they owned virtually all of Britain, rulers had the title 'King of the Britons'.
Last edited by trampie on 15 Feb 2019, 09:13, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by trampie » 15 Feb 2019, 08:52

murf wrote:
14 Feb 2019, 19:56
I had to look up King Alfred when I saw that map because he, effectively, started the ball rolling to unite kingdoms into what became England and then ultimately the UK/GB. Even in Alfred's time there was no real Welsh power. Maybe some weird cartologist was claiming his Mercia was Welsh on that map but, no, even then it was 300-400 years out. He was 9th century.
The kingdoms were British and were fairly united, then the Romans came colonising then roughly as they were leaving the Germanic tribes were arriving pushing the Britons Northwards and Westward, Germanic tribes often fighting each other as well as the Britons for dominance.
Its laughable how the English these days try and claim King Arthur as one of their own, Arthur was a Briton fighting the Anglo Saxons, lol.
As regards Alfred, the Welsh had Rhodri the Great [King of the Britons] at about the same time, he defeated the Danes in a famous battle at the time.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by murf » 15 Feb 2019, 09:25

Alfred was a saxon.

[EDIT Hadn't realised trampie had randomly switched from talking about Alfred to Arthur]
Last edited by murf on 15 Feb 2019, 09:25, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Billy Whiz » 15 Feb 2019, 09:49

Just because someone calls himself King of the Britons doesn't mean he is King of the Britons. Rhodri wasn't even king of all Wales.

Rhodri the Great

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