CptPugwash TFF World Cup Blog

[kingcurtley]

Kompany back in for Boyata? Perhaps be a little wary there. Presumed that's why Boyata started v England while others didn't.

[LAMPS27]

Kompany back in for Boyata? Perhaps be a little wary there. Presumed that's why Boyata started v England while others didn't.

Good point since posting I've heard he could be back.

I think the French full back Hernandez is decent £2.4m as Mendy isn't fit. It would be great in an enabler got at least 2 games and any returns would be nice too.

Tempted to go with Hernandez, other options are;

Tripper, Pavard, Mina.

I fancy the french to go through so I may take the gamble with him given he has started all 3 games and Mendy's return is unknown still.

[PEDRO2001]

Be careful of David de gea rumours of him not being certain

[CptPugwash]

Mixed Bag today.

All my teams went Uruguay, Portugal, France, Argentina & Croatia at the back either in blocks or pairs of semis, so bad day at the office for my defenders.

On the other hand my faith in Cavani over Suarez & Mbappe over Griezmann paid off, so all is not lost if Croatia can keep a Clean Sheet.

[robot]

Mixed Bag today.

All my teams went Uruguay, Portugal, France, Argentina & Croatia at the back either in blocks or pairs of semis, so bad day at the office for my defenders.

On the other hand my faith in Cavani over Suarez & Mbappe over Griezmann paid off, so all is not lost if Croatia can keep a Clean Sheet.

Surely thats game over bar croatia/ which pairs you have.
Why didn't you save some for spain/ bel/ bra or semis between the 3/ croatia.
Seems a big gamble to go nearly all in on the two games least likely to have clean sheets.

[CptPugwash]

Mixed Bag today.

All my teams went Uruguay, Portugal, France, Argentina & Croatia at the back either in blocks or pairs of semis, so bad day at the office for my defenders.

On the other hand my faith in Cavani over Suarez & Mbappe over Griezmann paid off, so all is not lost if Croatia can keep a Clean Sheet.

Surely thats game over bar croatia/ which pairs you have.
Why didn't you save some for spain/ bel/ bra or semis between the 3/ croatia.
Seems a big gamble to go nearly all in on the two games least likely to have clean sheets.

I didn't post my teams before, because I knew I was gambling - just in case anyone was daft enough to follow my tips
I have to disagree strongly that Portugal - Uruguay was one of the least likely games to have a clean sheet - I would have said that it had the least expectation of total goals. I just didn't know which way to go, the 8th minute brilliant goal put paid to that. On the other hand I would agree that FRA v ARG probably had the highest likliehood of both teams to score, BUT a) at least I would know the starting defenses, & b) my strategy is always to try and cover the top quarter.

remarkable fact - The metro ran a Euro FF in 2012. There was no transfer amnesty, and of 5 entries the best I had was 3 of my starting XI getting out of the group stages. I still finished 1st, 2nd, 4th & 9th with 4 completely different teams. (they were all heavy russia/poland/spain) that's why i always adopt a top heavy strategy.

This is the split on my 15 teams.
4 on the semi combinations FRA or ARG with PORT or URU.
4 on the semi-combos CRO with 1 of the above.
4 full CRO
1 Full ARG
1 Full FRA
1 Full PORT.

I completely ignored Spain as it was the obvious start - there will be people with 100+ entries on the Spain block - I can't compete with that, so i know that if i start with a Spanish block and it keeps a clean sheet, I still have next to no chance of winning.
My intention was always to change to Brazil/Belgium but not start - I wanted to try & pick a clean sheet on the way & who knows what there starting defenses were going to be anyway.

[SneakyOne]

I totally agree with you Pugwash.

Last Wednesday I had the pleasure of being first, made more amazing by the fact I only entered 3 teams!

I was let down by the England/Belgium farce having Kane, Hazard, Lakkau and Lindgard left to play, I ended up finishing 14th come the close of the group stage.

Obviously only having 1 team with a hint of a chance, I couldn’t follow the Spain, Brazil, Brazil, Spain block strategy.

Portugal have been very poor, Uruguay haven’t conceded a goal since November 2017 and I too started with the Uruguay block, strongly believing not only would they win but also with a clean sheet, so much so, I didn’t even have Ronaldo (which does save me a transfer). So I was amazed they conceded from a corner but still felt it was the right move for me at the time.

So now I have all transfers in tact, the next steps will be crucial, I’m heavily leaning towards Croatia block followed by Belgium or perhaps more crazily leaving Uruguay in and spending some of those transfers in the attacks, basically I have to do something a little different and hope it pays off.

It has certainly been a rush. BET365 have the odds of Spain keeping a clean sheet at 5-1, which is quite generous, I guess they feel Russia will score.

Let’s just say I will be cheering on Russia!

[CptPugwash]

@ Sneaky.

I suspect that more than Belgium - England farce. There are people with multiple entries covering the Round 2 switch to Colombia who have gone flying past you.

If I was in your position, I think you have to stick. Whatever switch you do there will be people near the top starting with that block - so you would be 5 transfers behind.
Of course it could all go tits up & you could tumble down the leaderboard, but IMO your best hope for a top finish is stick & cross your fingers for goals all the way through the last 16.

[SneakyOne]

Colombia didn’t help but I think, having made a calculation at the time, it was only a two teams at the top that created a 20 point gap (same guy as well), the rest was split by literally 6 points. So having the 4 playing would have helped.

Though I agree with you about my next move, I guess it’s a case of sticking and seeing where I am once the dust settles on round 16. Hopefully we see no clean sheets!

Good luck with your teams

[SneakyOne]

Well so far it’s been beautiful! Mexico beating Brazil please

[CptPugwash]

I wonder how many teams have yet to play a block.

That's all the defenders in all my 15 teams been & gone without so much as a sniff of a clean sheet.

Switched my Argie block to a Russian block.

For my other team with an eliminated block - going to wait till Tuesday & toss a coin on Sweden Switzerland, going to see if a coin works better than my brain.

[robot]

Yes bit of a disaster for blocks, although not much happenning for striker rotation either, the knockout table is now showing and 88 after 4 games says it all.

I went quite heavy on croatia, now to decide on weather to keep for russia or move on to tommorrows teams.

I've got a handfull set up with the remaining teams, but most have gone like yourself, will see what happens.

[Brianh68]

Hello people's after the fourth match of the last 16 it's all gone Pete tong for your blocks from the first 4 games,perhaps Brazil,Belgium,Mexico,Japan and the rest will work,or maybe sit it out and Mexico Japan Switzerland Colombia go through,Russia v Japan Final yeahaa,too much beer I thinks...

[DonTanTilla]

Hello people's after the fourth match of the last 16 it's all gone Pete tong for your blocks from the first 4 games,perhaps Brazil,Belgium,Mexico,Japan and the rest will work,or maybe sit it out and Mexico Japan Switzerland Colombia go through,Russia v Japan Final yeahaa,too much beer I thinks...

Brian, thats your first post for almost 3 years

[CptPugwash]

Hello people's after the fourth match of the last 16 it's all gone Pete tong for your blocks from the first 4 games,perhaps Brazil,Belgium,Mexico,Japan and the rest will work,or maybe sit it out and Mexico Japan Switzerland Colombia go through,Russia v Japan Final yeahaa,too much beer I thinks...

Brian, thats your first post for almost 3 years

... and it was well worth waiting for.

I feel very privileged that someone came out of hibernation to post on my blog.

[CptPugwash]

I have made plans for all my teams except 1.

All my blocks that won have to stick & hope for a minor miracle.

My blocks that lost are making left field switches & hoping for an even bigger miracle.

What to do though with the Uruguay/France semi (3-3 split) - stick & hope for a nil nil & transfer out the losers - or make a left field semi-switch to SWI/SWE/COL?

[Brianh68]

Just playing for pride,blocks have done me,so far in the knockouts,gonna go big in today's games Brazil and Belgium or not as they will maybe face off in quarters so just go striker changes,got Spain block to get rid of,£20 gamble blown on 8 teams,I spend more down the pub buying a round

[CptPugwash]

The Big question now is how many teams started the KO round with Brazil/Belgium blocks.

If the answer is very few, then it is probably right to switch back to plan A, & switch to Brazillian blocks (especially with the blocks that lost).

If the answer is quite a lot. then it is probably correct to stick with winning blocks & avoid Brazil with losing blocks.

What do we think?

[rinky]

I've 3 teams on nil points no trfs used.

[sarllm]

I’ve only one team with a back 5 of Spanish/Croatian players.

Thinking of keeping the Croats and swapping Spanish defenders to either Belgium or Brazil. Who de we think has the greater chance of a clean sheet? Brazil have a slightly disjointed defence with second choice fullbacks but Belgium conceded 2 against Tunisia (also have a couple of defenders on yellows). I can’t trust England, and Sweden/Switzerland could go either way IMO! Leaning towards Belgium given the lack of a real threat from Japan but in this World Cup who knows?


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[Jameselaprendi]

Brazil and Belgium do both seem to have the most obvious clean sheet in this round, however...

I've seen a lot of pundits and tipsters suggest both teams to score in Brazil v Mexico, although not sure I fully agree.
I'm wary that Belgium and Brazil might score heavily and start not to worry so much about a clean sheet.... (e.g. Belgium v Tunisia)
They'd be up against each other in the next round.
Brazil likely to rotate the fullbacks by next round.
Whoever wins the QF will have the best of France or Uruguay to contend with.
They're also both relatively expensive defenses, esp. Belgium.

So what are the options?

Go to a fullish Brazil or Belgium block - don't like it for mixture of reasons above, also its a bit all or nothing if you pick the wrong one.
Going for part blocks, say 2 of each, dilutes the potential from the easy fixture and then becomes potentially self defeating in the QF and guarantees the need to make further transfers later.


Alternatives?

Sweden? Switzerland? Colombia? England?
If you could pick from the above which one will make the Semis there's probably as much potential over the remaining fixtures (as Belgium or Brazil) and likely to burn less transfers...


Summary

Brazil or Belgium for the good chance of quick points, but with problems building as tournament progresses
I'd say for those who started with them they're in a good place and have the transfers to work it through
For those who've had a failed block this round - they need to try and pick from Tuesday's teams, or abandon 'block' thinking....

[CptPugwash]

I’ve only one team with a back 5 of Spanish/Croatian players.

Thinking of keeping the Croats and swapping Spanish defenders to either Belgium or Brazil. Who de we think has the greater chance of a clean sheet? Brazil have a slightly disjointed defence with second choice fullbacks but Belgium conceded 2 against Tunisia (also have a couple of defenders on yellows). I can’t trust England, and Sweden/Switzerland could go either way IMO! Leaning towards Belgium given the lack of a real threat from Japan but in this World Cup who knows?


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With that backline you have to go Spain Brazil/Belgium (or possibly even Mexico) & stick with that until at least the 2nd QF. Your choice is then stick with the semi blocks or go all in on Croatia before the semi (That's if everything goes to the plan).
The ONLY alternative is Spain Brazil/Mexico Belgium, and only if a) You think you can get a clean sheet in the first hop & b) Belgium will beat the winners in the QF.
Anything else will lead to 2 semis in the bottom half of the draw - & i don't think you want that; or writing off Croatia (which as it' things are going - getting defenders through a game, even without a clean sheet, is not a disaster).

Belgium or Brazil I think is a difficult choice - quite possibly the game defining choice. I have to think Belgium have the easier game, but Brazil would be favourites in the QF.

[Jameselaprendi]

Re-reading my own post - to be honest it seems its a 'hit and hope' no matter what you do

Maybe there's value in keeping Uruguains or Croats

[CptPugwash]

Brazil and Belgium do both seem to have the most obvious clean sheet in this round, however...

I've seen a lot of pundits and tipsters suggest both teams to score in Brazil v Mexico, although not sure I fully agree.
I'm wary that Belgium and Brazil might score heavily and start not to worry so much about a clean sheet.... (e.g. Belgium v Tunisia)
They'd be up against each other in the next round.
Brazil likely to rotate the fullbacks by next round.
Whoever wins the QF will have the best of France or Uruguay to contend with.
They're also both relatively expensive defenses, esp. Belgium.

So what are the options?

Go to a fullish Brazil or Belgium block - don't like it for mixture of reasons above, also its a bit all or nothing if you pick the wrong one.
Going for part blocks, say 2 of each, dilutes the potential from the easy fixture and then becomes potentially self defeating in the QF and guarantees the need to make further transfers later.


Alternatives?

Sweden? Switzerland? Colombia? England?
If you could pick from the above which one will make the Semis there's probably as much potential over the remaining fixtures (as Belgium or Brazil) and likely to burn less transfers...


Summary

Brazil or Belgium for the good chance of quick points, but with problems building as tournament progresses
I'd say for those who started with them they're in a good place and have the transfers to work it through
For those who've had a failed block this round - they need to try and pick from Tuesday's teams, or abandon 'block' thinking....

For my money it all depends on current blocks.
If you are on full Uruguay/France stick unless you have non-starters or selection worries in which case you can semi/block through Brazil and/or Belgium to the bottom quarter.

If you are on semi=blocks Uruguay/France & losers. Switch to a semi block from Tuesday (going through Brazil and/or Belgium if you want)

If you are full Croatia/Russia stick or switch to semi block with Brazil or Belgium.

If you are on semi-blocks with Croatia/Russia & losers. Switch to a semi from Brazil or Belgium (going through Brazil to Belgium if desired)

Semi blocks with Croatia & Russia (If anybody has that ) need to switch to a semi with Brazil or Belgium.

Semi blocks with Uruguay & France (I have 1). Probably should switch to a semi with the bottom quarter, possibly going through Brazil &/or Belgium - but that's
2 x 3 x 4 different combinations & i have no idea which to do.

Semi blocks with both Uruguay/France & Croatia/Russia are by far the biggest headaches. I haven't a clue what to do & i'm sat on 3 of those.

Whatever the choice finishing today with defenders from both Belgium & Brazil seems crazy to me - Unless you are chasing goals. it might leave you with options after the QF - but you will be chasing teams who went full on with the best choice.

[mindcrush]

Is there a value play to be found in the Mexican or Japanese lineups? Even with the expectation that you'll only get one game out of them, is anyone putting in the likes of Lozano, Hernandez, Unai or Kagawa?

[CptPugwash]

Is there a value play to be found in the Mexican or Japanese lineups? Even with the expectation that you'll only get one game out of them, is anyone putting in the likes of Lozano, Hernandez, Unai or Kagawa?

I don't think so - not in teams that you think are doing OKish. However I'm still sat on a full Portuguese block that needs to do something outlandish - so it's going big on Mexico and if that miracle comes off switching to a semi with the bottom quarter - probably Sweden.

I should add a waiver to that. If you think you need Brazil / Belgium to concede to have a chance of winning then yes it's probably worth throwing in an attacking option from Mexico / Japan.

[mindcrush]

Is there a value play to be found in the Mexican or Japanese lineups? Even with the expectation that you'll only get one game out of them, is anyone putting in the likes of Lozano, Hernandez, Unai or Kagawa?

I don't think so - not in teams that you think are doing OKish. However I'm still sat on a full Portuguese block that needs to do something outlandish - so it's going big on Mexico and if that miracle comes off switching to a semi with the bottom quarter - probably Sweden.

I'm sat on a team with six combined Spanish and Portuguese and 15 remaining transfers. Against someone with almost the exact same amount of points but with more transfers left and (as far as I know) a strong contingent of Belgian and Brazilian players to play, I am very much at the stage of looking for longer shots and alternatives to the players that everyone else will have in. Maybe I am just looking too hard because I need them to be there.

[CptPugwash]

Changes done.

Coutinho & Neymar across the board apart from 1 team with 8 mexicans

Completely bereft of Brazillian defenders - apart from Japan the only team left in i don't/won't have any defenders from.

Mexican goal or bust.

[gio]

Changes done.

Coutinho & Neymar across the board apart from 1 team with 8 mexicans

Completely bereft of Brazillian defenders - apart from Japan the only team left in i don't/won't have any defenders from.

Mexican goal or bust.

It seems there were lots of brazilian defenders around... all my teams fell like a stone. I share your pain

[CptPugwash]

I presumed that over half the teams that were in the top 50 would go Brazil Block, so there was absolutely zero point for me to go Brazillian block. So I've just fallen even further behind. IMO it was a gamble I had to take.

The very very last chance saloon was moving into Belgium big time & hoping they thrape Japan then Brazil. As usual that went tits up. No clean sheet, nothing for KDB, Hazard or Lukaku - at least they went though. Now all i need is a 10-0 win over Brazil.

Polishing the magic coin in readiness for deciding which defenders from tomorrow i'm filling my teams up with.