COVID - 19

[Johnners]

Why has no-one thought about getting Blue Peter to make one and let all the kids in the country follow the instructions? I remember the Blue Peter advent coat-hanger & also Tracy Island. I'm sure we've all got enough sticky-back plastic, cereal boxes and margarine tubs.

Almost all the Blue Peter essentials. Only trouble is, thanks to all the panic buyers, none of us have any toilet roll tubes.

[blahblah]

But 1 bog roll makes 2 Ventilators so give a Ventilator for 1 bog roll

[murf]

From BBC on today's press conference thing:

"One thing they said which jumped out at me is the R0 [number of people infected by each person] value - on the basis of measures being taken - was now below 1. But Neil Ferguson’s [a professor monitoring the outbreak] modelling suggests the data across Europe would put that number somewhere around 1.4, down from about 4."

Anything below 1 means it should diminish. If you combine that with herd immunity (ideally 60%+) then the number of cases will drop.

Only thing is, if you relax the rules after that the R0 value will shoot up...

[blahblah]

Yep. The end go this is medication either to prevent or cure; or herd immunity. Flattening the curve as we are trying to do is not helping herd immunity in the medium term and medication roll out will take until next year?

Flattening the curve until summer may provide some respite, but won't last into Autumn\Winter?

[blahblah]

Congrats go the Govt for realising so soon that there are Brits abroad who are a tad fooked.... I didn't have a clue about them

[unc.si.]

he must have been talking about R, rather than R0 (which doesn't change in theory although the value might change as estimates get better).

same point though. better hope that the immune response is good and/or an effective vaccine can be developed off an existing technology platform (which should speed things up)

[blahblah]

If the vaccine is found in the EU: where will we be in the queue for it? (Assuming we read the email or whatever didn't happen with the Ventilators...)

[Surprised]

Won't be a vaccine for at least a year. Italy and Spain have the spread running out of control and the USA will have a million infected soon as rates are rising 10% a day

[blahblah]

Exactly. This Lockdown could last for closer to 12 Months than 6, and when people think they have had it then it could be carnage come summer...

[ffstuff]

Some signs albeit just a small window of days that the lockdown could be working in the UK.
I read an article the other day, which unfortunately I can’t find now which was saying some scientists are proposing ethics be relaxed and they actively try to infect people with the virus after they have the vaccine (during the trials) to speed things up. Unsure what the usual order of things are for vaccine trials but assume it must not include that.

[murf]

Yep. The end go this is medication either to prevent or cure; or herd immunity. Flattening the curve as we are trying to do is not helping herd immunity in the medium term and medication roll out will take until next year?

Flattening the curve until summer may provide some respite, but won't last into Autumn\Winter?

The curve isn't just flattening, it is actually starting to dip. UK deaths are down for 2 days running and R(0) is below 1. Could be a blip but we are now at the stage where those at the peak of illness (and dying) contracted it at the start of lockdown so it looks like it is working.

Not sure what this means long term as the curve just goes up again if we ease off (no herd immunity).

Maybe all stand just 1.8m apart and exercise twice a day so we get a really flat curve.....

[unc.si.]

In animal trials you do challenge tests where the animal is actively infected but not in human trials.

Think the first step is in an animal model (zebra fish are used a lot nowadays, as well as mice), then human safety tests (small numbers of healthy people) and then efficacy tests on large numbers of people to test immune response and infection rates.

takes a while. not sure about the ethics of deliberately infecting people. doubt whether they would relax that.

normally about 5 years (takes that long for animal vaccines let alone human ones) but they seem to think they can cut it down to 18m to 2 years.

one key aspect is that a lot of vaccine firms develop subunit or recombinant platform technologies whereby the part of the DNA / RNA of a virus that elicits the immune response is 'stitched' into a delivery platform (eg a harmless cucumber mosaic virus or tobacco mosaic virus). You don't get the full sequence so it can't replicate but you get the bit that causes the antibodies / t cells so you get to the immunity. if the platform is proven to be safe and effective already, you could in theory reduce the approval time with a willing regulator as you just have to prove the efficacy of immunity response.

luckily there have been huge forward steps in vaccine technology in the last few years, so there is a chance that maybe even 12m from now there could be some initial vaccines for Trump to try to get exclusive use of...

[Pirlo's Beard]

12m from now there could be some initial vaccines for Trump to try to get exclusive use of...

He'll have to borrow them off President Biden first.

[jimmy ching]

Does anybody on here know anybody in their family or close friends who have died from this? No one with my lot so far, still happy. Hope it's the same for you lot.

[Dot]

The actual number of reported deaths of covid WITHOUT underlying health issues in any said person is tiny.

How come the celebrity cases are all right as rain after several days self isolating too.


Cant believe a lock down will continue indefinitely people will rebel..

[Tim Bisley]

Idiots will rebel.

People with more intelligence will do what's best for both themselves and others.

[Stu255]

This thing is just going to run and run for a while I think.

We have a choice; slow the virus or slow the economy.
We just have to take the measures that reduce R with the greatest economic efficiency and stack them all up until we have it spreading at a level we can manage.

Lots of different theories and models out there, but I think the general consensus is about correct now.

I don’t think 50% of people have had it, because in the UK we only test symptomatic people and even then 90% of our tests are negative.

I think these measures could be in place long enough that behaviours change permanently and a lot of people will never go fully back to their former lifestyles.

I still don’t personally know anyone who has had a positive test result. I know a couple of tenuous friends of friends or colleagues of friends.

I see there are rumours of the Premier League moving into quarantine camps and playing out the season at St George Park.
What is the point of that? Isn’t it tone deaf?

It looks obvious to me that this season is completely written off and the best we can hope for is a clean start to the 20/21 season, but even that increasingly looks like it could be a challenge with a compressed pre-season and perhaps travel restrictions and social distancing of some kind still in place.

May we live in interesting times.

[murf]

The actual number of reported deaths of covid WITHOUT underlying health issues in any said person is tiny.

How come the celebrity cases are all right as rain after several days self isolating too.

Dot answers his own question.....

[blahblah]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52091420

Any idea if this was before or after the Fetish Wear was claimed, assuming it was.....

[Dot]

There will come a point whereby people without underlying health conditions will return to normality to kickstart the world.

Seems unreal to believe a 1/3 of the world can continue on lockdown, infact I would say it is madness.

[DavidLloydIsAHero]

Yep. The end go this is medication either to prevent or cure; or herd immunity. Flattening the curve as we are trying to do is not helping herd immunity in the medium term and medication roll out will take until next year?

Flattening the curve until summer may provide some respite, but won't last into Autumn\Winter?

The curve isn't just flattening, it is actually starting to dip. UK deaths are down for 2 days running and R(0) is below 1. Could be a blip but we are now at the stage where those at the peak of illness (and dying) contracted it at the start of lockdown so it looks like it is working.

Not sure what this means long term as the curve just goes up again if we ease off (no herd immunity).

Maybe all stand just 1.8m apart and exercise twice a day so we get a really flat curve.....

This might have jumped the gun a little, large rise in today's figures. Suspect there is a bit of a lag over the weekend with getting deaths reported, tested, confirmed etc.

If these measures have been successful we probably won't see the benefit for at least another week

[blahblah]

Yep day on day is too random for me.

[robot]

https://youtu.be/54XLXg4fYsc

[blahblah]

https://youtu.be/54XLXg4fYsc

[murf]

Yep. The end go this is medication either to prevent or cure; or herd immunity. Flattening the curve as we are trying to do is not helping herd immunity in the medium term and medication roll out will take until next year?

Flattening the curve until summer may provide some respite, but won't last into Autumn\Winter?

The curve isn't just flattening, it is actually starting to dip. UK deaths are down for 2 days running and R(0) is below 1. Could be a blip but we are now at the stage where those at the peak of illness (and dying) contracted it at the start of lockdown so it looks like it is working.

Not sure what this means long term as the curve just goes up again if we ease off (no herd immunity).

Maybe all stand just 1.8m apart and exercise twice a day so we get a really flat curve.....

This might have jumped the gun a little, large rise in today's figures. Suspect there is a bit of a lag over the weekend with getting deaths reported, tested, confirmed etc.

If these measures have been successful we probably won't see the benefit for at least another week

It's a bit confusing but I THINK today's figures includes some catch up on previous deaths from a week or two back that weren't originally counted because they were outside hospital (eg at home or at care home) and doc only said suspected (non tested) Covid 19.

[murf]

All good on that video but the caveat about testing and confirmed cases is huge.

Also interesting how far we (UK) are behind Germany and France (similar populations) let alone Spain and Italy.

[blahblah]

Indeed to the testing and how many survivors there are and whether they are immune. The problem with finding out the latter is convincing them to stay in Lockdown if they can't not pass it on.

The latter will lead to carnage and civil unrest....

[murf]

Indeed to the testing and how many survivors there are and whether they are immune. The problem with finding out the latter is convincing them to stay in Lockdown if they can't not pass it on.

The latter will lead to carnage and civil unrest....

Who is a 'survivor' if most folks aren't tested?

I think they can be a great service to the community NOW. Use survivors as key workers doing deliveries or working in spermarkets etc. Would make feel a lot better about the few interactions I have to do.

[blahblah]

Exactly. If they don't test for those that have had it then Lockdown is easy(ish) to maintain. However, if they test all 65m and people find they have it and are safe; they will want to be free and mix...

[blahblah]

Indeed to the testing and how many survivors there are and whether they are immune. The problem with finding out the latter is convincing them to stay in Lockdown if they can't not pass it on.

The latter will lead to carnage and civil unrest....

Who is a 'survivor' if most folks aren't tested?

I think they can be a great service to the community NOW. Use survivors as key workers doing deliveries or working in spermarkets etc. Would make feel a lot better about the few interactions I have to do.

Did you add the second bit?

Yep. You would have thought it obvious, but it is also dangerous if mismanaged etc and I trust out politicians as far as ... well erm.....