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Basic Draft Strategy?

FPL Draft format starting in 2017/18
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Talkie Toaster
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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by Talkie Toaster »

dino1980 wrote:That wouldn't affect things. All that matters is the draft order in person if a group of mates are doing a 'in the room' type draft. It doesn't matter what order the FPL draft puts them in as if you only upload 15 autopicks to your team you'll get those players no matter if you pick first or last.
This is true as far as the draft itself is concerned, but the first waiver process of the season is conducted in reverse draft order - last draft pick gets first waivers pick. If you wish to maintain this advantage then you'll either have to ensure that your draft party order is the same as the game's order or alternatively you have an excuse for a second party where you sort out the waivers picks in the same way.

Happy partying all. :D

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by MoSe »

dino1980 wrote:
bigcliff2 wrote:Jus bumping this part from dino's post above:

"For anyone who wants to, I’ve set up an eight person league with the draft due to take place at 8.30pm on Wednesday night over on that site. It's called Fiso Draft 1. If anyone wants to join please PM me for the code."

Cheers, still three spots left in this. Just to clarify It starts at 8.30pm UK time.
how did it go?
Comments, anecdotes, anything relevant?

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by bigcliff2 »

MoSe wrote:
dino1980 wrote:
bigcliff2 wrote:Jus bumping this part from dino's post above:

"For anyone who wants to, I’ve set up an eight person league with the draft due to take place at 8.30pm on Wednesday night over on that site. It's called Fiso Draft 1. If anyone wants to join please PM me for the code."

Cheers, still three spots left in this. Just to clarify It starts at 8.30pm UK time.
how did it go?
Comments, anecdotes, anything relevant?
There were only 3 of us in the end, and one of the guys was on autopick. I still found it interesting and imaging how difficult it would be if there were 8 players, would start to get really tricky

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by Mav3rick »

Do we think we'll be able to leave/disband leagues in FPL draft? If so then as soon as the game goes live we can setup practice drafts in FPL and then just let the league admin delete the league after.

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by dino1980 »

Yeah, I'm hoping that's the case.

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by dino1980 »

So I read an article last night about the draft concept of 'handcuffing'. In short it means locking up a valuable spot in a FPL team so no matter who plays there, you get the points.

We've sort of explored this is the mock drafts by taking a premium keeper and their backup. The writer of the article though used the Spurs left back spot as a good example of handcuffing. Last season Rose and Davies scored 174 points between them (ranked 3rd for defs) but neither managed more than 90 individually. He also uses the Saints attackers as an example and some others.

Anyone thinking this could work - full backs from the top six seems intriguing - or is having one semi-dead spot in a draft team too much given the quality of defenders on offer in a eight team draft?

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by Mav3rick »

So you mean having one player, and his understudy? I don't see why that wouldn't work, so long as you got the main guy first then in defence at least the second guy should be left undrafted.

The trouble would be if you got 1-pointers, and in the drafts I've taken part in, there have been other defenders I was interested in too even by the last defensive pick. However, if I was in a situation where I'd got Rose then I'd have to consider tieing a spot with Davies vs the other options there. It would make Davies much more valuable to me that to others, so perhaps it would allow you the luxury of a later pick, knowing that you had an attractive option that was unlikely to be taken away at any stage during the draft.

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by Stemania »

I'd agree with that, but maybe I'd go even further. In the practice drafts most people ended up with a very strong bench so it's definitely possible to consider, yet the FPLer in me would prefer to buy a decent standalone player in the draft though and maybe think about the backup (Davies here) with the waivers/free transfers later.

I.e., if there's a player whose OK for my team but terrible for everyone else, it seems a bit of a waste picking him in the draft when we could be taking a player who would have been good for everyone else - because I'd basically be able to get Davies whenever I want in the future barring immediate Rose injury?

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by Mav3rick »

Yeah so the downside it protects is if Rose were to get injured, as then you lose your premium option and someone else would likely waiver Davies in.

I guess I would see it as an insurance policy on your premium player.

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by dino1980 »

It's a balancing act, as always. Is the insurance of definitely having the backup better than having a stand alone decent fifth defender? One of the FISO test drafts is still live on the site and I drafted Valencia/Bailly/Vert/Mustafi/Matip, I don't think there's a natural handcuffing spot there, unless we knew for sure Darmian was second choice UTD right back.

I think you need a couple of flexible spots in draft with the fifth defender and midfielder options being the obvious spots so taking Rose and Davies or Trippier+backup or Milner+Robertson and, especially, Alonso+backup (if one is signed) is a viable play as the other three defenders in your team should provide adequate cover.

The trouble with the Rose/Davies combo for me is that if Rose is confirmed out for the first ~3-4 weeks then that makes Davies an attractive fifth defender for a lot of teams, knowing they can ditch him later for a defender pool that still has some decent talent.

I certainly don't think I'll be going down the Pedro+Willian or Gabbi+Austin routes that are also mentioned in the article, but I think with the defence it'll be something I'll be considering should the opportunity present itself.

It also seems like a strategy you could abandon for a few weeks, let's say between Champs Leauge group stage and the start of the xmas fixtures, and stream in a useful fifth defender for those gameweeks, before switching back.

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by Mav3rick »

One of the test drafts I had a late pick and aimed for midfield big hitters, that left a small striker pool, maybe a Hernandez/Carroll or Gabbi/Austin would work well in that kind of setup.

The whole strikers when late in the draft is an interesting problem, I found myself taking up the best mids and best defenders by skipping the striker picks till round 3 and then just relying on the one decent striker. That left two spots perhaps for handcuffing, but honestly those types of players do seem like one pointers.

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by dino1980 »

Handcuffing of forwards isn't really something I've considered yet given I'm planning on taking two in the first three rounds (like most). I guess if I'm in the spot where I take Alli or KDB in round 1, or where Hazard is the best round 2 pick it could come into play. Trouble is I'm not sure we'll have clarity on the Saints/WHM situation at the time, which will make the second best option from each team a reasonable flyer given the paucity of striker options.

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by Mav3rick »

Would forward handcuffing still work better in the same way as the defence, so if you manage to draft Lukaku, it makes Rashford more attractive?

It would spare you a striker pick perhaps until a later round?

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by Beerfuelledman »

Silly question - but I take it the "bench" doesnt score any points?

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by wahine »

I read other peoples suggestions on how best to play that you draft forwards first that being there are 3 spots and premiums are limited, however do you really want to miss a premium midfielder or defender at the expence of the second tier forwards, having played 2 drafts already, its definately not an advantage to go first... i think order of draft is quite important, however you dont know your place in the order until the time comes

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by dino1980 »

It's about the drop off in points potential in each position though.

Diff between top scoring defender and 16th best defender in 16/17 = 58 points
Diff between top scoring forward and 16th best scoring forward in 16/17 = 128 points
Diff between top scoring midfielder and 16th best scoring midfielder in 16/17 = 125 points

Obviously don't take Deeney ahead of a Hazard, Ozil type pick but I won't be prioritising a premium defender over my third mid/striker slots.

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by Mav3rick »

What's the drop off between 8th and 16th or 16th and 24th in each position though? I know that the top mids and strikers are way better than the next tier of players in their position, which makes probably the first 4 draft picks absolutely necessary in the front 8, but from 5th pick down?

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by Tacalabala »

dino1980 wrote: 30 Jul 2017, 00:18 It's about the drop off in points potential in each position though.

Diff between top scoring defender and 16th best defender in 16/17 = 58 points
Diff between top scoring forward and 16th best scoring forward in 16/17 = 128 points
Diff between top scoring midfielder and 16th best scoring midfielder in 16/17 = 125 points

Obviously don't take Deeney ahead of a Hazard, Ozil type pick but I won't be prioritising a premium defender over my third mid/striker slots.
You are clearly bang on correct here. That said, is this an approach taken directly from MLB drafting? Are players more or less prone to injuries in baseball? And drop offs in form from one season to the next (Hazard for example)?

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by Mav3rick »

I've been messing around with estimated drop offs, just to get a feel for things and it does seem that you really can afford to ignore the premium defenders entirely.

I have my draft order set in Excel, and added rough points estimates to the position in the team, based mostly on intuition really (i.e. a guess) with things like streaming thought about and incorporated (i.e. 5.0 defenders can be a little more valuable because there are streaming options, 7.0 mids, less so).

With those estimates down I then looked at the drop off on 4 picks and 8 picks down the list, and the drop off on forwards is rather exceptional, with 40 or 50 points seemingly quite common in the 8 place drop-off, even lower down the draft (40 point drop offs still occurring around 20th place in the striker picks for example).

Obviously my numbers are just guesses, but they are guesses accross the board so hopefully the margin of error is the same on everyone making it a fair comparison over all classes. The defenders suffer much less and I'm convinced now that premium defenders can definitely wait.

I guess the strategy for a late draft order would be that you can take off two mid-range strikers (or one mid range and one high potential punt like Hernandez) plus a weak looking striker like Gayle, while early draft picks players will probably get one premium and two of the better cheapies.

So in an 8-man draft, it would be something like Kane, Deeney and Llorente against a Defoe, Vardy and Gayle. I think that's an advantage to the early pick going with 3 strikers, so I think maybe if I get a late draft order then I'll assume a 352 formation for the most part and concentrate on a better midfielder while the early drafters pickup the 3rd striker.

If I could pickup a Willian, Zaha or Lanzini as the 3rd midfielder then I think that's probably better than an expected weaker looking third striker, certainly so as they will likely be left hanging around anyway so no need to draft them in early. Of course if the snake does allow me to take up an Hernandez as my third striker for example, then you'd have to be flexible enough to realise that he's the better option and take him.

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by dino1980 »

Nice post Mav. If going down the 3-5-2 route I'd also add that after the draft there are three and a half weeks left of the transfer window so it's possible that a couple more striker options may emerge during that time.

Most of the big clubs have done their business in that area, so not every 3-4-3 will want to bid on these new strikers, I'd imagine. Everton, Swansea (Bony), Stoke? are all teams I could see signing a new striker before the end of August.

I also think there may be a couple of high variance picks left for third striker, someone like Abraham for instance probably won't get picked up, but he has a lot of upside if Llorente leaves and/or he gets regular minutes.
Last edited by dino1980 on 30 Jul 2017, 12:43, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by dino1980 »

Tacalabala wrote: 30 Jul 2017, 09:35
dino1980 wrote: 30 Jul 2017, 00:18 It's about the drop off in points potential in each position though.

Diff between top scoring defender and 16th best defender in 16/17 = 58 points
Diff between top scoring forward and 16th best scoring forward in 16/17 = 128 points
Diff between top scoring midfielder and 16th best scoring midfielder in 16/17 = 125 points

Obviously don't take Deeney ahead of a Hazard, Ozil type pick but I won't be prioritising a premium defender over my third mid/striker slots.
You are clearly bang on correct here. That said, is this an approach taken directly from MLB drafting? Are players more or less prone to injuries in baseball? And drop offs in form from one season to the next (Hazard for example)?
I've not done a MLB draft before/don't follow baseball really so any crossover on approach is purely conincidental.

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by Joccki_10 »

A piece of advice from Joccki:

Do not participate, I repeat, do not participate, if you fail to properly set up a watchlist.

I was absent and I'm stuck with:
- reserve keeper Bravo
- red flagged Koscielny
- red flagged Moses
- red flagged Clyne
- yellow flagged Rose
- yellow flagged Van Dijk
- red flagged Antonio
- 'just got back from holiday' Bernardo Silva
- rotator Martial

:) :) :)

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by blahblah »

Joccki_10 wrote: 04 Aug 2017, 21:23 A piece of advice from Joccki:

Do not participate, I repeat, do not participate, if you fail to properly set up a watchlist.

I was absent and I'm stuck with:
- reserve keeper Bravo
- red flagged Koscielny
- red flagged Moses
- red flagged Clyne
- yellow flagged Rose
- yellow flagged Van Dijk
- red flagged Antonio
- 'just got back from holiday' Bernardo Silva
- rotator Martial

:) :) :)

8-) 8-) 8-)

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by Mav3rick »

Joccki_10 wrote: 04 Aug 2017, 21:23 A piece of advice from Joccki:

Do not participate, I repeat, do not participate, if you fail to properly set up a watchlist.

I was absent and I'm stuck with:
- reserve keeper Bravo
- red flagged Koscielny
- red flagged Moses
- red flagged Clyne
- yellow flagged Rose
- yellow flagged Van Dijk
- red flagged Antonio
- 'just got back from holiday' Bernardo Silva
- rotator Martial

:) :) :)
Play of the game! Now we'll see what you're made of Mr OR 55 :mrgreen:

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by Joccki_10 »

Mav3rick wrote:
Joccki_10 wrote: 04 Aug 2017, 21:23 A piece of advice from Joccki:

Do not participate, I repeat, do not participate, if you fail to properly set up a watchlist.

I was absent and I'm stuck with:
- reserve keeper Bravo
- red flagged Koscielny
- red flagged Moses
- red flagged Clyne
- yellow flagged Rose
- yellow flagged Van Dijk
- red flagged Antonio
- 'just got back from holiday' Bernardo Silva
- rotator Martial

:) :) :)
Play of the game! Now we'll see what you're made of Mr OR 55 :mrgreen:

I've already put in a waiver request for goalkeeper Lössl. :mrgreen:

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Joccki, there are some of those I'd like. I was there and I still managed to get 5 flagged players, at least one of whom is probably out till Xmas. And then let's discuss my fit players. Berahino. What on earth possessed me to select Berahino I have no idea. :shock: :?

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by blahblah »

Drafts are a bit of a mare......

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by Joccki_10 »

Ruth_NZ wrote:Joccki, there are some of those I'd like. I was there and I still managed to get 5 flagged players, at least one of whom is probably out till Xmas.

Yeah, that's why I'm considering to keep three flagged defenders and only play two (hopefully!) in GW1.

Actually my midfielders are probably the biggest problem.

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by Mo Bot »

Pick strikers first. I just had pick no.5 and although many good choices were left and had decent strikers higher in my shortlist, I went with red-flagged Hazard which may well turn out well. However, my strike force is Vardy, Rashford and Llorente which is pretty weak.

Still, it could be a lot worse.

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Re: Basic Draft Strategy?

Post by The Catman »

I don't think anyone thinks their initial team is a guaranteed winner, (except MoSe??), but I think Jocci is right that you need to be there.

60 secs is a lot too long, 30 would be plenty.

Good fun though

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