FISO

A long way off but who is going to win TDF 2019 ?, I thought about it the last few days when it looked like Thomas was going to win this years Tour, I find it hard to separate the top 3 in this years tour next year for various reasons and have just checked some odds for next year and it seems that the bookies cant separate the big three either.

What is interesting is what routes are this years Tour podium 3 going to take ?, if what I heard of the upcoming Worlds course is right, G should go for that.
FroomeDog is the Vuelta and Giro champion so does he defend these titles ?
Doom won the Giro last year followed by a runner up spot this year so does he go to the Giro next year ?
Can either beat Thomas in the Tour next year as Thomas dominated them, will they both give the Giro a miss to try and win the Tour next year ?
Will G sign a new Sky contract ?
Will G and FroomeDog be joint leaders in the Tour next year ?

The way I heard Brailsford talking gave the impression that neither G or FoomeDog will be at the Vuelta, if so will FroomeDog defend the Giro and try to win the Tour ?, G would probably want to take the same route next year and defend his Dauphine title and then defend the Tour title.

If FroomeDog and Doom take on the Giro and the Tour again next year and Thomas does just the Tour and Thomas gets protected rider status from Sky alongside Froome, I can see Thomas winning again, FroomeDog and Doom might have to change their schedule to beat the mighty G.

Hard to second guess Sky politics, or what kind of shape a couple of 30-something cyclists will be in 12 months from now... young Bernal looks a leader and Grand Tour winner in waiting, though next year might be a bit too soon.

Dumoulin might prioritise France next year and look for a stronger team to help him over the final hurdle... and now Froome has all three to his name, a fifth win in Paris to equal the record will surely be his main remaining objective, would be surprised if he does Italy next year. There could be a bit of F1’s Nico Rosberg about Thomas’s win, i.e. long road to the top, achieved the biggest goal against the odds, is the hunger there to do it again? Who knows. Wiggins was a bit like that but he knew Froome had surpassed him at that stage I guess. Thomas might fancy going full circle and finishing his career with gold on the track in Tokyo... or maybe that could wait for 2024. Would be good to see he and Froome racing each other next year with no team orders at the start though.

Others might have a say as well next year, the improving Roglic, Porte if he can stay upright for once, can Quintana rediscover his best, even the Yateses from a GB point of view. Chance for someone to make a name for himself in Spain anyway.

forestfan wrote: ↑30 Jul 2018, 22:26 the improving Roglic Porte if he can stay upright for once, can Quintana rediscover his best, even the Yateses from a GB point of view. Chance for someone to make a name for himself in Spain anyway.

I hope so; highly unlikely; been in decline for a while; and I hope so.

Allaphillippe could translate the Polka Dot? It may be time to pick Classics or Tours?

blahblah wrote: ↑30 Jul 2018, 22:32

forestfan wrote: ↑30 Jul 2018, 22:26 the improving Roglic Porte if he can stay upright for once, can Quintana rediscover his best, even the Yateses from a GB point of view. Chance for someone to make a name for himself in Spain anyway.

I hope so; highly unlikely; been in decline for a while; and I hope so.

Allaphillippe could translate the Polka Dot? It may be time to pick Classics or Tours?

The French seem to churn out polka dot/stage winners who don’t quite make it to become serious contenders to wear yellow in Paris. Voeckler, Chavanel, Rolland etc. Bardet has made the podium a couple of times I think without ever really looking like a genuine chance to win it. They all seem to be mediocre time triallists for some reason, whereas Sky (who I don’t remember ever employing a Frenchman...) can seemingly turn anyone into an all-rounder.

None have won GT's after leaving Sky though? Or even gone reasonably close?

Porte doesn't count, Uran?

Well, it’s a bit like saying footballers don’t win Champions Leagues after they leave Real Madrid. You’re taking a step down, even if it’s to be the main man.

Anyway, bookies equally undecided on next year. Froome 11/4, Thomas and Dumoulin 3/1, Roglic 6, Porte 12, Nibali 25, the rest 33s and above.

forestfan wrote: ↑30 Jul 2018, 22:59 Anyway, bookies equally undecided on next year. Froome 11/4, Thomas and Dumoulin 3/1, Roglic 6, Porte 12, Nibali 25, the rest 33s and above.

That is the best available price, Thomas is the favourite with nearly every bookie and Froome the outsider of the three with nearly every bookie.

If any of the big 3 skip the Giro to do the Tour then lump on. On their own I cannot see logic in any doing Giro for that reason but also can't see Sky doing Tour with Froome and Thomas as fresh contenders/rivals.

Not sure what will happen but if all 3 started fresh my cash would be on Froome.

To the aforementioned note on French cycling philosophy.
The French love cycling. At the moment it seems VTT (Velo Tout Terrain) is the choice of the young, imposed by their safety conscious parents. Whether this will produce winners for the road is a question that the French have to grapple with.
The French myth was in full swing when I arrived. Talking with cycling fans then, they insisted you can't be a great at track or mountain biker then go on and be a Tour winner. Almost immediately Evans nearly did. Bradley followed and now Geraint. It's the same as the Union-League argument that curses the English. Some are capable of bridging the gap.
But they won't believe me.

And Sagan. Great mountain biker.

Can’t see Sky letting G and Froome race Mano y Mano. Not their style at all. Froome to target a 5th Tour but G to be prepared as well just in case Froome slips up again like this year.
Froome still the stronger rider all round, but with the strength of Sky behind him G more than capable of winning again with the right preparation and focus.
As someone said earlier, impossible to guess what firm/ injury situation will be in 12 months but if both fit then suspect Froome’s season will be focussed on joining Merckx, Hinault, anquetil and Mig on 5 wins, with G in the wings. Then to ride for G in La Vuelta, parcours permitting.

There aren't going to be many (there may not be any) teams at World Tour level with two GT winners in their ranks. So Sky can legitimately being either of those two to any of the Grand Tour and expect to be favourites. I don't see why G and Froome would go head to head again. There's no benefit for them. Whichever of the two leads the team in the next TdF should be favourite.

Mystery wrote: ↑31 Jul 2018, 22:51 There aren't going to be many (there may not be any) teams at World Tour level with two GT winners in their ranks. So Sky can legitimately being either of those two to any of the Grand Tour and expect to be favourites. I don't see why G and Froome would go head to head again. There's no benefit for them. Whichever of the two leads the team in the next TdF should be favourite.

As per Unc: parcours permitting.... should split etc.

I've kinda watched Eurosport highlights and G isn't getting the credit for his first stage win, dumping Froome to latch on to Tom, then kicking on to catch an beat Neive was impressive\sweet.

Having watched the Yates Giro implosion (and that Froome Stage) agog, I didn't watch the ITT or descent of stage before, as per Cav stuff I admit that his ability to fall off kinda had me ruling him out of winning anything of note - but Sky have landed on their feet re popular rider winning as opposed to erm him.

One really odd thing I heard\read was G on £2.5-3m a year - good on him, but can he get more elsewhere as GT Rider? I'd like to think Bertie was on on more and Sagan, but (m)any others and with a team to match?

Sky pulling out of cycling ends one of sport's most successful partnerships, their transformation of British road cycling is quite remarkable and beyond even their wildest dreams at the outset.

One intriguing question is to what extent did all the recent controversies involving Sky and British Cycling contribute to this decision?

Remember, while Froome was ultimately cleared of any wrongdoing in the salbutamol affair after the initial results were maliciously and vindictively leaked to the worldwide media, that story generated another six months of damaging headlines, and came hot on the heels of the TUE saga, the inquests at British Cycling and the parliamentary report which ultimately found Sky guilty of crossing ethical lines in 2012 etc.

Not withstanding the fact that the controversy has perhaps irrevocably damaged the brand and tarnished their legacy, their achievements are still of absolutely fairytale proportions. Their critics may well compare them to Manchester City with their financial muscle and bought in stars, stating it's all skewed the landscape and altered the competition etc etc, but these goals were never a given however plentiful the finance, to even think it possible to attain such results was always stretching credibility and likely reality.

There are qualifications and Brailsford did use all possible ways to gain advantage even if not technically breaking rules, plenty of questions remain as he sought to gain every advantage at the margins.

The takeover of Sky by Comcast, after Brailsford's biggest supporter James Murdoch lost a power struggle, was always likely to have consequences with the new owners perhaps not so willing to continue handing over as much as £30 million a year.

It feels safe to conclude that the Sky takeover was more than coincidental, even if it was ultimately their chief executive Jeremy Darroch's decision. The shifting landscape at Sky would surely have been a contributing factor.

Dave Brailsford must now go out and sell his vision to prospective partners. The pitch should be easy. Team Sky have won four of the past five grand tours and six of the past seven editions of the Tour de France and have never been stronger on paper. Brailsford said he would want any new partner to continue operating at that level.

Good opportunity for Merck to step in

Not too many cycling sponsorships last a decade, it was always going to run its course eventually.

Maybe Royal Mail could step in

There's is actually very little in it for cycling teams or sponsors. A very poor financial model. Mamy of the better teams are funded by wealthy individuals nowadays or are really ads for nations (Bahrain/Astana). The non-manufacturer teams themselves are effectively just people with little brand value unlike say a F1 team (McLaren).

I hope 'Sky' can continue, what a waste of a set up if they can't. Rider salaries would also plummet with all that talent available.

forestfan wrote: ↑13 Dec 2018, 18:11 Maybe Royal Mail could step in

I can't say that I kept up with the Merging\swapping\sale(s) of Fox, Sky etc: does anyone know which bits Rupes owns\runs now? I know one of his kids is really into cycling and wanted to win P-R, even though they showed little\no cycling?

McLaren are entering into a joint-venture partnership with Bahrain-Merida, the team of 2014 Tour de France winner Vincenzo Nibali.

The partnership, which is being described as “open-ended”, will be with McLaren’s Applied Technologies and Marketing and Commercial divisions – which accounts for almost 700 staff – making Bahrain-Merida at a stroke one of the best funded, and certainly one of the best resourced, teams in the sport.

McLaren’s racing programme costs  upwards of £200 million a year and while McLaren will be putting only a fraction of that amount into this project in terms of hard cash – the team would not discuss budgets beyond saying “there is no free ride” and their “commitment would match the team’s ambition to be the best” – even the use of its state-of-the-art facilities in Woking, including its windtunnel, plus access to Applied Technologies’ intellectual property, gives Bahrain-Merida the sort of backing of which other teams can only dream.

So while one financial monster is in danger of dying another is just possibly rising to become equally as unpopular as in time it bags all the GC prizes and monopolizes talent. Still it will give all the professional moaners and protesters a replacement target to scrutinise and vilify to their hearts content. Another dark enemy of the envious is just awakening.

I'm open to being corrected but the McLaren Applied Tech deal is surely going to be a fine piece of B2B minimal cash sponsorship. The team will get tech and support and virtually no actual cash. Best of luck with that.

Mystery wrote: ↑13 Dec 2018, 19:54 I'm open to being corrected but the McLaren Applied Tech deal is surely going to be a fine piece of B2B minimal cash sponsorship. The team will get tech and support and virtually no actual cash. Best of luck with that.

Bahrain provide the cash, Merida and McLaren the rounder wheels, wind tunnel stuff etc, maybe Ferrari will provide the medical support?

It's not totally beyond the bounds of possibility given recent developments if previous plans aren't altered to accommodate new possibilities, perhaps this new venture could now include a takeover of Sky and an amalgamation into an absolutely monster Mclaren-Mehrida megateam, who knows?

blahblah wrote: ↑13 Dec 2018, 20:02

Mystery wrote: ↑13 Dec 2018, 19:54 I'm open to being corrected but the McLaren Applied Tech deal is surely going to be a fine piece of B2B minimal cash sponsorship. The team will get tech and support and virtually no actual cash. Best of luck with that.

Bahrain provide the cash, Merida and McLaren the rounder wheels, wind tunnel stuff etc, maybe Ferrari will provide the medical support?

Sky did almost unreal things for cycling in Britain. No Brit had won a GT until 2012. We had the odd stage win - Malcolm Elliott, David Millar, Robert Miller, Tom Simpson. A couple of monuments / WC's (Tom Simpson, maybe Barry Hoban ) and a few TT's / Hour records (Boardman, Obree). Boardman and Cav probably the only real household names away from the track.

Suddenly we won everything. Team Sky jerseys and branded bikes everywhere. People at work actually taking an interest in bike racing. Everyone had a bike. A strange minority sport in the UK became mainstream, and it was brilliant.

I love the way that Sky got everyone into cycling. I love the way that talented riders in the UK (and we've always had talent, just never the support to let it develop - read about Robert Millers experiences in the pro ranks if you have any doubts) got a chance to shine.

I have to confess that the style of riding never really stirred the soul. The Borg strung out on the front of the Peloton - echoes of The Disco Days / Posties. Superdomestiques (although in reality thats always happened - ref La Vie Clare, just not quite with the same brutal efficiency). Power meters and riding by the numbers. Cycling as science not art. Effective but little panache. But after all it is professional sport. Times have changed from the days of Coppi disappearing up the road and never being seen again, or Merckx attacking just because he could, even though he was winning the tour by 10 minutes already. These days, if you want to win you pretty much have to be like Sky. They took the template started by LeMond, carried on by Armstrong and took it to the next level (professionalism, not the other thing). They pushed things a bit too close to / over the edge sometimes, but in reality every other team pretty much does the same, or would do if they had the chance. They're not whiter than white, but they're not Festina either.

They've set up a good business model - riders have long contracts. Its a proper corporate entity run like a business. Suspect the team will largely stay together as long as someone steps in soon. If they have 3 or 5 year contracts in place then I suspect that Sky will have underwritten them so probably no real incentive for anyone to rush to jump ship.

Just as Reynolds became Banesto, Caisse d'Epargne and then Movistar, maybe Sky will become Barclays, Tesla, Sanofi, whatever.

Has been a great era for British cycling, and we owe Sky pretty much 100% for that. Hopefully the structures that success has allowed to be put in place and the renewed interest in cycling will mean that Britain remains a force in world cycling, although I doubt we'll ever see the like of the last 7 years again.

£34m(?) is a hell of a lot to find and maybe some will be off before the season starts?

unc.si. wrote: ↑13 Dec 2018, 20:44 They've set up a good business model - riders have long contracts. Its a proper corporate entity run like a business. Suspect the team will largely stay together as long as someone steps in soon. If they have 3 or 5 year contracts in place then I suspect that Sky will have underwritten them so probably no real incentive for anyone to rush to jump ship.

Has been a great era for British cycling, and we owe Sky pretty much 100% for that. Hopefully the structures that success has allowed to be put in place and the renewed interest in cycling will mean that Britain remains a force in world cycling, although I doubt we'll ever see the like of the last 7 years again.

You will know more about such things than me, but would Sky really have underwritten guarantees beyond the end of their Sponsorship? Apparently they have 10 or 12 riders on 1m plus contracts, and a breakdown of Sky Cycling's costs would be interesting.


re the rise of popular cycling in this (Dis) Unioted KingdomWell Dave and his "drive" ie via British cycling are just as relevant?

Indeed, having a British path for the kids into the Pro Ranks and a successful team is good, and we could argue how much Cav has had to do with it, especially given British Cycling's disdain for him and whichever Yates bro they ignored; but the brand\team is so very tarnished, or is it varnished? Has Brad really written that LA was the perfect TdF winner?

Dave seems like an interesting bod, as he interviews like a nice bloke: but apparently nice blokes don't win? There were the Brad TUE's; Froome (hmmm hardly a Brit...) getting off basically because Sky could afford the legal defence other teams couldn't; then Sutton, who from the headline stuff re insulting Varnish's ass actually doesn't seem that bad if he told male riders the same, but did he? Pendleton seemed\seems like an emotional wreck, and I have forgotten what happened to Ramires(sp). So bubbling under "nice, cuddly" Dave was a hierachy of bigotted dogma ie Cav's numbers, and how on earth could they want one Yates and not the other?

Maybe the real sadness is that they had just started "racing" (nah, I don't believe that Froome stage) when they lose the cash?

I think some just don't like the sport being dominated, although perhaps are extremely selective as to which dominant team they dislike with no real consistency in their choices. Sky has always been singled out for special treatment even if others have been more dominant or more blatant in their transgressions. They go on about Sky's hypocrisy while quite happy to ignore their own.

Quickstep were ridiculously stacked in last year's classics - ten deep with Belgian hardmen. Flayed the field week in week out winning E3, Dwars door Flanders, Flanders, Fleche Wallone, LBL, plus a load of other races a level below. Would have won Roubaix but for the might of Sagan [QS roster for Roubaix: Terpstra, Gilbert, Stybar, Lampaert, Declercq, Keisse, Seneschal - at least four potential winners there]. But they went about it in an attractive way? If you're Belgian, maybe. 

The crowds for pretty much any British race are quite something. I mean the Tour de Yorkshire is a chipper really, yet they always get good crowds at roadside. It's just a more global sport now I think. It's hard to remember at times that over 20 years from 1965 to 1986, GTs were only won by French, Spanish, Italian, Belgian or Dutch riders. The big nations had a monopoly on things. Belgium still bosses the classics, but it's time for the other nations to pull their fingers out. Nibali is surely done as a GC rider, and Aru will never do it. Who does Italy have after them? France have perennial issues, and I can't see Bardet winning it. Spain don't really have anyone of note. The biggest challengers are Colombia, with guys like Lopez and Bernal, plus of course Quintana, whilst Dumoulin looks set to boss things when Froome fades. Dumoulin is many things, but he's not especially exciting either, so if the major nations want to regain their lustre, they've got to up their game a bit.

blahblah wrote: ↑13 Dec 2018, 22:08

unc.si. wrote: ↑13 Dec 2018, 20:44 They've set up a good business model - riders have long contracts. Its a proper corporate entity run like a business. Suspect the team will largely stay together as long as someone steps in soon. If they have 3 or 5 year contracts in place then I suspect that Sky will have underwritten them so probably no real incentive for anyone to rush to jump ship.

You will know more about such things than me, but would Sky really have underwritten guarantees beyond the end of their Sponsorship? Apparently they have 10 or 12 riders on 1m plus contracts, and a breakdown of Sky Cycling's costs would be interesting.

Again, it'll take someone with more knowledge than me to predict how the current setup works when its dissolved, but as I understand it contrary to all the other teams - Sky are not the sponsors - they're the owners. 'Team Sky' is just the registered name with the UCI. Tour Racing Ltd is the actual name of the Sky cycling team, a registered company whose shares are 100% owned by Sky Broadcasting. When they say they're pulling out what they mean is they're selling the company, its assets I guess will be the HQ/service course, Dave B and the riders contracts (also liabilities?) cars/bikes/supplies are all provided by sponsors. Either someone buys a guaranteed TdF win or the compaby gets dissolved. I would imagine that the riders contracts have some provision for this eventuality (given that none of them currently sound worried), but who knows.


re. 2019 TdF, spoke to Ned Boulting the other week (clang). Froome has zero interest in the Giro or Vuelta, Tour no. 5 is the sole objective he has. As defending champion it'd be a massive slap in the face to be 'demoted' for G but history shows once they're on the road Dave B will do whatever has the best chance of winning at the time irrespective of whose opinions or feelings he burns to the ground.

The only real option for Sky is to let the pair race at the TdF. Especially now after the 'sale' announcement. Annoy either of them and maybe lose a key asset.