Variance

[RickyRosa]

Has there ever been a significant thread on variance in the Europe game before?

I used to play a lot of online poker and like to think I know a little bit more about variance then most. The reason I mention it is it just seems to me that the variance in the Europe game is huge, much more than the normal seasonal game because of the smaller number of possible games played and the fact you can only enter 5 teams as opposed to in theory as many as 500 games over an entire season in the main game.

This then leads my thought processes onto ways of minimising the potential variance and the different strategys one can employ to be able to do so.
I find it fascinating that some members, some would argue more astute members, have already done so by getting there WAGs to enter teams as well, thus giving a potential 5 more teams.

This used to happen a lot In online poker and was called multi accounting, basically one player would play several accounts in one game of poker from different IP Addresses giving a much greater chance of success in any given game.

now I don't think that an extra 5 teams gives much more of a statistical advantage to an average player (you would argue that the average player would not even think of it) but to an expert it allows more potential bases to be covered.
An excellent way of reducing ones variance in the game.
The tough last 16 draw has got me thinking about how we can reduce variance and I think that I have a basic strategy and just though it would be good with the new unlimited transfers to start a thread where potential ideas could be discussed.
a big one that used to happen In online poker was shares....
Where high profile players with a much greater likelihood of winning and with positive ROI's would sell shares of themselves in big games to help reduce there overall exposure.
Another would be that two players would get to the final table with similar chip stacks and agree to swap percentages of each other thus helping to eliviate the possibility of a "bad beat" or negative variance.
Got me thinking that this in theory would be possible in a FF game like the Europe game where two or more players could effectively minimise there variance by opting for different blocks/high profile players potentially dramatically reducing there overall variance.
For example if two players were to say "swap" 10 percent of each other, if one cashed for 10k or 25k it coukd really pay off.
Takes a massive leap of faith in each other of course but honour was and is very big in poker, your reputation worth more than a small cash to everyone but the very unscrupulous or scammer.
Just wondered if a strategy like that's ever been employed? Is it even allowed? Is it ethical?
There are other ways of naturally reducing variance of course, if you have any I would be very interested to hear them, but just wondered if the above existed in FF?

[leethomas]

[nufcwaz]

we off to solicitors monday to draw up a sharesies contract in europes?

[RickyRosa]

I LOL'd!

[mesmerised]

[WNP]

Your right about the Europe game being a lot more random than the main game. Over a season class will show through and the top players will generally be the best picks but in a short competition like this even a crap player can get lucky and be the top scorer in a phase, making it a lot harder to know what basis to cover.

A good few people on here are in/or have been in syndicates to help cover a wider variation of players which I think is what you were alluding to above.

[Ashers]

WNP has hit the nail on the head - Syndicates, sounds like RickyRosa is trying to reinvent the wheel.

[Zimmerman]

Aren't you basically talking about syndicates?
Although this would involve equal shares being traded (rather than just 10% or whatever)

Syndicates are definitely in play in the Sun game.
More so in the past... i dare say, some are still in effect today as well.

There was one syndicate of about 25 of us at one stage... that splintered in to several smaller ones.

Not sure if they are all still active or not?

As a side note:
Some would argue that entering teams in their wives names is dishonest and there was a whole load of palaver on that for a few years on FISO.
The Sun even used to have some rules around 'managing other peoples' teams - not sure if that is still there or not (and it wasn't specifically aimed at spouses either). Some of the main stalkers/critics/unhinged loons also failed to grasp the concept of a syndicate but thats a whole different topic.

[RickyRosa]

Do you think there is a strategy where you could pick your two best or worse teams and play them off against each other against teams playing each other in the next round, basically sacrificing one for but in theory guaranteeing a winning performance for the other?

[Edmondson]

I think it's too early in Phase 2 for playing teams off so directly against each other.

For this Europe game, if playing with a decent batch of teams, the aim would be to get 4 or 5 into contention by end of Phase 2, so within the Top 100 or so, in range points-wise.

Then with full set of changes for q-finals onwards, you can close down the variants of possible CL and Europa winners. You'd give yourself a fighting chance being "all in" on the eventual winner, so if you had a Barca, Madrid, Bayern etc starting in Top 100, might just need one or two other picks to come off to nudge past the others who picked the same. You'd also have a great chance backing a side outside that big 3.

[ronny10]

I agree with Dave, its too early to be playing off your 5 picks against each other but saying that Liverpool, spurs and united are the only possible full blocks (united debatable) so a pool block and united block would be sonething i would look at for 2 teams, spurs look decent at the back BUT play dortmund.

Personally I am going heavy on ath madrid (only 3 available that definitely start, with 5 other teams as a semi)

[leethomas]

I agree with Dave, its too early to be playing off your 5 picks against each other but saying that Liverpool, spurs and united are the only possible full blocks (united debatable) so a pool block and united block would be sonething i would look at for 2 teams, spurs look decent at the back BUT play dortmund.

Personally I am going heavy on ath madrid (only 3 available that definitely start, with 5 other teams as a semi)

Ronny, I had a athletico block in one of my teams in phase one, as you say keeper, Godin and Juan Fran started, giminez wasn't even in squad yet he was back and played in Madrid Derby yesterday, have u any idea if he was injured or suspended or just rested for Europa game, I can't find any details anywhere !!

[RickyRosa]

WNP has hit the nail on the head - Syndicates, sounds like RickyRosa is trying to reinvent the wheel.

You misunderstand me. I'm not suggesting that people start syndicates or indeed swap percentages of each other, more so, I guess, suggesting ways of reducing the variance which I see as huge in this particular game. Luck to put it another way (just for mesmerised!) as in the season long game I think skill will eventually prevail as there is a larger sample size of games thus naturally reducing the variance of the game, however, with the small sample size in the Europe game the variance increases dramatically.

I guess I started the thread to discuss ways or ideas for reducing the overall variance.
Take Lees' team for example, doing incredibly well now but if he chooses the wrong block it will fall away, however, if he swapped percentages with the other FISO member who finished top 3 and he chose a different block he would increase his chances and the other players chances of winning a prize, thus reducing his overall variance.

[RickyRosa]

I agree with Dave, its too early to be playing off your 5 picks against each other but saying that Liverpool, spurs and united are the only possible full blocks (united debatable) so a pool block and united block would be sonething i would look at for 2 teams, spurs look decent at the back BUT play dortmund.

Personally I am going heavy on ath madrid (only 3 available that definitely start, with 5 other teams as a semi)

Thanks for the feedback guys, I think that playing a pool and United block off with each other has legs as a strategy but would as pointed out mean that one of those teams is destined to fail, however, could be a strategy you could employ If you had to mediocre teams as it almost guarantees success for one team, trouble with that strategy is if there is a score draw and one team goes through in extra time or in penalties you could find yourself killing off two teams.
I like the Athletico idea...
To coin a poker term do you think the "all in" strategy has legs....basically, select one block for 4 or 5 of your teams and just select different outfield players like Messi, Suarez, Neymar in the different teams effectively hedging your bets on which out field player will yield points, however, effectively committing your teams chances of success to that one teams overall chances of keeping a clean sheet.
A very high risk strategy imop. However, one that could if you get it right put you in with a shot of winning...

[ronny10]

I agree with Dave, its too early to be playing off your 5 picks against each other but saying that Liverpool, spurs and united are the only possible full blocks (united debatable) so a pool block and united block would be sonething i would look at for 2 teams, spurs look decent at the back BUT play dortmund.

Personally I am going heavy on ath madrid (only 3 available that definitely start, with 5 other teams as a semi)

Thanks for the feedback guys, I think that playing a pool and United block off with each other has legs as a strategy but would as pointed out mean that one of those teams is destined to fail, however, could be a strategy you could employ If you had to mediocre teams as it almost guarantees success for one team, trouble with that strategy is if there is a score draw and one team goes through in extra time or in penalties you could find yourself killing off two teams.
I like the Athletico idea...
To coin a poker term do you think the "all in" strategy has legs....basically, select one block for 4 or 5 of your teams and just select different outfield players like Messi, Suarez, Neymar in the different teams effectively hedging your bets on which out field player will yield points, however, effectively committing your teams chances of success to that one teams overall chances of keeping a clean sheet.
A very high risk strategy imop. However, one that could if you get it right put you in with a shot of winning...

I have always prefered the all in approach more often than not, In the main game I have entered extra monthly teams each month and will tend to go for one block (often the wrong one) rather than a few different blocks with the view to mixing up the front 6's.

The next round of the euro game is pretty tricky based on the europa fixtures and the lack of players from certain teams (defensively).

It probably comes down to who you trust the most to keep a clean sheet (or 2). I would be surprised if any of the europa teams keep 2 clean sheets and even if 1 or 2 do will there players even be in the game or actually play!

Althletico Madrid are built around a solid defence and must be favs to get a clean sheet above all the other options in the next round of games. Like I said only 3 will definitely start (not sure on the other player yet Lee) so still gives you 2 other players too find in which you could use from 5 different teams, slightly softening the blow if Madrid do concede (they won't) and 1 or 2 of your other chosen teams in the semi block do get a clean sheet.

A Madrid 3/ europa team 2 semi blocks x 5 in summary

[CBN]

Ref. earlier talk of Atletico backline. Savic had actually displaced Gimenez as Godin's partner believe it or not. However Savic got injured (see below - not serious) so Gimenez got back in again against Real. Does he stay there? Who knows.

"Stefan Savic appears likely to miss Atletico Madrid's derby clash with Real this weekend due to a calf injury. The defender played the full 90 minutes for Diego Simeone's side in Wednesday's 0-0 Champions League draw with PSV at the Philips Stadion. But a statement on Atletico's website on Thursday confirmed the Montenegro international picked up a grade II calf injury, leaving him in doubt for Saturday's derby clash at the Santiago Bernabeu."

[MADCHESTER UTD]

never heard before about syndicates in ff. don't think that would be for me, even though if you were in a syndicate with say 4 top DT players that would obviously increase your chances of cash prizes. the drawback of course being that if you won the DT Europe main game, then instead of receiving £25k, you'd get £5k instead. that would then take away the chance to win a life changing amount which in turn takes away some of the excitement.

with the variance in DT Europe I the obvious tactic would be to have 5 different blocks/semi blocks instead of doing what I did last phase and going all out on utd and Seville and essentially putting all my eggs in one basket. this obviously backfired but I just liked the idea of potentially 5 teams in and around the leaderboard, rather than going with a block I didn't fancy such as spurs as they had good opposition in fiorentina. although doing this would have been insurance if utd and Seville conceded, I thought before any ball was kicked that it might end up a waste of a team (s). phase 2 i'll probably do something similar even though it didn't come off in phase 1. i'll highlight the teams who have the easier tie's on paper and fill up 4 of my teams with these blocks/semi blocks but this time i'll maybe go 1 team different.

[Edmondson]

WNP has hit the nail on the head - Syndicates, sounds like RickyRosa is trying to reinvent the wheel.

You misunderstand me. I'm not suggesting that people start syndicates or indeed swap percentages of each other, more so, I guess, suggesting ways of reducing the variance which I see as huge in this particular game. Luck to put it another way (just for mesmerised!) as in the season long game I think skill will eventually prevail as there is a larger sample size of games thus naturally reducing the variance of the game, however, with the small sample size in the Europe game the variance increases dramatically.

I guess I started the thread to discuss ways or ideas for reducing the overall variance.
Take Lees' team for example, doing incredibly well now but if he chooses the wrong block it will fall away, however, if he swapped percentages with the other FISO member who finished top 3 and he chose a different block he would increase his chances and the other players chances of winning a prize, thus reducing his overall variance.

Ricky - that second paragraph talking about Lee swapping percentages with someone else flying high, is syndicates. Or some form of syndication.

I personally agree with you, when there is £25k on offer and even £15k for 2nd, if you could find 5 teams at the end of Phase 2, that were all in the Top 10, and those 5 team owners were happy to go 20% each (or even tweak it if one of them had a decent lead over the others), then cover a few different angles, I'd be up for that. I'd rather have a better chance of £5k, than a distinctly lesser chance of £25k.

However, it's not that easy. Obviously you are relying on some level of trust, but these sort of "relationships" have been pretty common over the years via fiso. It's more about agreeing your 5 teams. Does everyone have equal say, what does that even result in? Or do people run their own sides (more what you're suggesting I think) and everyone just relies on each other - maybe with the guidance that you're doing Madrid defence, I'm doing Barca etc.

But what happens when one of them sticks an injured striker in, because they missed the news, or forgets an ET....etc. Been plenty of things like this over the years as well

I'm liking the Euro Zimmerman sides at present, he had all 5 as Liverpool blocks, so all within range for Phase 2. Be interesting to see if he keeps that reds backline

[leethomas]

Cheers for the Savic info CBN, for me there's so many permutations anyone would struggle with Only 5 teams each in a syndicate, of course it gives you more chances but I think overall winner of this will be at phase 3 getting a team full of the winners of champ league and Europa.

[RickyRosa]

Is there now merit in picking two teams and playing them off against each other to guarantee that one of the teams gets through to the semis' or do you guys think that picking one of the favourites is the way to go as they will prob get through anyway?

Guess it depends on where you are in table as to which teams you select to play off if you chose to adopt this strategy

[leethomas]

Is there now merit in picking two teams and playing them off against each other to guarantee that one of the teams gets through to the semis' or do you guys think that picking one of the favourites is the way to go as they will prob get through anyway?

Guess it depends on where you are in table as to which teams you select to play off if you chose to adopt this strategy

Only problem is lack of players in list and price of the top teams, a full barca back 5 is 26 mill, add messi and Suarez or neymar, that's only 9/10 mill left for 4 players. Unless they add players you could struggle , even in Europa , you could do Liverpool v Dortmund but at moment only one definite of back 5 of Dortmund on list!!

[em9999]

Bayern Munich and Seville in that order

Barca yep great team bit they can be got at and I'm not so sure they will progress past the next round.... The amount of chance we created against them was untrue and I'm confident if they are up against a team who are clinical they will be in big trouble..

[SUZYKINS]

The amount of chance we created against them was untrue